QLFS_Q3_2019 Presentation

Quarterly Labour Force Survey
Q3:2019
Risenga Maluleke
Statistician-General #StatsSA

29,0%
29,1
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
South Africa’s unemployment rate increased by 0,1 of a percentage point to 29,1%
in Q3 of 2019. The highest unemployment rate since the QLFS started in 2008
Unemployment rate from
Q1:2008 to Q3:2019
2

25,4%
29,1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
24,5%
29,1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Unemployment rate from
Q3:2009 to Q3:2019
27,5%
29,1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
10 Years 5 Years 1 Year
Q3
2009
Q3
2019
The unemployment rate has remained high over time. There has been 0,1 of a
percentage point increase between Q2:2019 and Q3:2019.
Unemployment rate increased by
4,6 percentage points between
Q3:2009 and Q3:2019
Q3
2019
Q3
2014
Unemployment increased from 25,4%
in Q3:2014 to 29,1% in Q3:2019 by
3,7 percentage points
Q3
2019
Q3
2018
Unemployment rate increased by 1,6
percentage points compared to
the same period last year
3

UnemployedEmployed
16,4 6,7
2,8
12,7
Other NEA
Not Economically Active
Discouraged
workseekers
15,5 million
ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed
and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged
job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups.
Cannot be in two groups at the same time,
Labour force
23,1 million
38,6 million
People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds)
M
M
M
Employed Unemployed
South Africa’s official
unemployment rate
stands at
29,1%
M
Increased by 0,1 of a
%pt between
Q2:2019 and Q3:2019
The working age population (15-64 years) in Q3:2019 was 38,6 million
4

2008
Other Not Economically
Active
Unemployed
Employed
LabourForce
+44 000 q/q
Discouraged work
seekers
NotEconomically
Active
2019
Changes between Q2:2019 and
Q3:2019
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
Jan-Mar08
Apr-Jun08
Jul-Sep08
Oct-Dec08
Jan-Mar09
Apr-Jun09
Jul-Sep09
Oct-Dec09
Jan-Mar10
Apr-Jun10
Jul-Sep10
Oct-Dec10
Jan-Mar11
Apr-Jun11
Jul-Sep11
Oct-Dec11
Jan-Mar12
Apr-Jun12
Jul-Sep12
Oct-Dec12
Jan-Mar13
Apr-Jun13
Jul-Sep13
Oct-Dec13
Jan-Mar14
Apr-Jun14
Jul-Sep14
Oct-Dec14
Jan-Mar15
Apr-Jun15
Jul-Sep15
Oct-Dec15
Jan-Mar16
Apr-Jun16
Jul-Sep16
Oct-Dec16
Jan-Mar17
Apr-Jun17
Jul-Sep17
Oct-Dec17
Jan-Mar18
Apr-Jun18
Jul-Sep18
Oct-Dec18
Jan-Mar19
Apr-Jun19
Jul-Sep19
Employed
Unemployed
Not Economically Active
Labour market indicators between
Q1:2008 and Q3:2019
-35 000 q/q
+78 000 q/q
+62 000 q/q
The working age population (15 – 64 years) increased by 149 000 people between
Q2:2019 and Q3:2019
5

EMPLOYMENT
&
LABOUR MARKET RATES
QLFS
Q3:2019
6

The number of employed persons increased by 62 000 to 16,4 million between
Q2:2019 and Q3:2019
Number of employed
From Q3:2009 to Q3:2019
The number of employed people
increased by 2,6 million from
13,8 million in Q3:2009 to 16,4
million in Q3:2019
13,8
16,4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Million
15,1
16,4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Million
16,4
16,4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Million
10 Years 5 Years 1 Year
increased by 1,3 million from
15,1 million in Q3:2014 to 16,4
million in Q3:2019
Q3:2009 Q3:2019 Q3:2014 Q3:2019 Q3:2018 Q3:2019
decreased by 5 000 from 16,380
million in Q3:2018 to 16,375 million
in Q3:2019
7

The Labour force participation rate increased by 3,5 percentage points from 56,4% in
Q3:2009 to 59,9% in Q3:2019
42,6 42,4
56,4
59,9
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
55,0
60,0
65,0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Employed / population ratio (Absorption) Labour force participation rate
Labour force participation rate is the proportion of
the working-age population that is either employed
or unemployed.
Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age
population that is employed.
13,8 % Points
difference
17,5% Points
difference
Labour force participation and
absorption rate, 2009-2019
8

Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Change: Percentage points
Q2:2019 to Q3:2019
Labour market rates vary significantly depending on education level
Labour market rates by
education level, Q3:2019
19,1%
8,2%
29,8%
34,4%
29,1%
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
68,4%
81,7%
48,3%
32,5%
42,4%
84,5%
89,1%
68,9%
49,6%
59,9%
+1,9
+0,1
-0,3
+1,2
+0,4
-0,3-0,9
+1,1
+0,6
-0,2
0,0+0,1
-0,1
+0,4
-0,9
+0,8
9

58,2%
36,1%
22,9%
17,2%
9,9%
29,1%
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
25,6%
74,4%
80,9%
75,5%
44,5%
59,9%
10,7%
47,5%
62,4%
62,5%
40,1%
42,4%
-0,6
0,0
-0,4
+0,5
+1,8
-0,4
+0,1
+0,8
-0,1
-0,6
-0,8
+0,2
+0,5
+0,4
-0,4
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Q2:2019 to Q3:2019Labour market rates by age
group, Q3:2019
The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 (36,1%) is more than double that of the
45-54 (17,2%) year olds.
10

15 – 24 years 35 – 64 years
Q2:2019 to Q3:2019
Unemployment rate by education
level and age group, Q3:2019
The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level.
49,4%
33,6%
57,2%
62,6%
58,2%
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
28,3%
14,3%
33,7%
43,2%
36,1%
+0,4
+0,9
+1,9 10,9%
3,8%
18,0%
24,6%
19,2%
+3,6
+1,8
+1,4
-0,1
-7,9
+0,5
+0,4
-0,2
-0,1
-0,7
-1,4
+1,6
25 – 34 years
11

PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN
EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR
TRAINING
(NEET)
QLFS
Q3:2019
12

EducationWork
NEET
Those young people
(15-34 years) who are
categorised as NEET
are considered to be
disengaged from both
work and education.
Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total
youth-specific working-age population
?
Not in employment, education or training (NEET)
13

28,7%
30,4%
33,6%
34,3%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
Q3: 2018 Q3: 2019
NEET (15-24 years) by sex
Approximately 3,3 million (32,3%) out of 10,3 million young people aged 15-24 years
were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased
by 1,2 percentage points in Q3:2019 compared to Q3:2018.
FEMALE NEET
Up by 0,7 of a
percentage point
MALE NEET
Up by 1,7
percentage points
15-24 YEARS
14

28,1
29,1
29,8
30,1
32,3
34,7
34,8
35,5
35,8
38,8
WC
GP
LP
FS
RSA
EC
MP
KZN
NW
NC
(+1,5)
(+2,7)
(+1,3)
(+3,0)
(-0,3)
(+1,1)
(+3,4)
(+1,2)
(-0,6)
(+1,0)
( ) Y/Y Change
Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year
Change Q3:2018 – Q3:2019)
NC recorded the highest rate of young people aged 15-24 years not in employment,
education or training in Q3: 2019.
15

35,1%
36,9%
43,0%
44,1%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Q3: 2018 Q3: 2019
FEMALE NEET
MALE NEET
NEET (15-34 years) by sex
Approximately 8,2 million (40,4%) out of 20,4 million young people aged 15-34 years,
were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate
increased by 1,4 percentage points y/y.
Female NEET
Up by 1,0 percentage
point
Male NEET
Up by 1,8
percentage points
15-34 YEARS
16

Provincial NEET rate (Year –on – Year
Change Q3:2018 – Q3:2019)
The NC province had the highest rate of young people aged 15-34 years not in
employment, education or training at 45,3%. The rate increased by 3,1 percentage points
year-on-year.
32,4%
36,7%
40,4%
41,1%
41,1%
42,8%
43,3%
44,3%
44,8%
45,3%
WC
GP
RSA
LP
FS
MP
KZN
NW
EC
NC
( ) Y/Y Change
(+3,1)
(-0,4)
(+3,0)
(+1,3)
(+2,1)
(+3,0)
(+4,2)
(+1,4)
(0,0)
(+1,7)
17

38 000
Q/Q
35 000
The number of persons employed increased by 62 000 in Q3:2019 to 16,4
million Q/Q.
Formal Sector
(Non agricultural)
(11,2 million jobs)
Informal Sector
(Non agricultural)
(3,0 million jobs)
Agriculture
(880 thousand jobs)
Private
households
(1,3 million jobs)
increased byincreased by decreased by increased by
43 000
Q/QQ/Q
53 000
Q/Q
19

Trade, construction and agriculture have higher employment shares relative to
their GDP contribution.
Share of
Nominal
GDP
(Q2:2019)
24,1%
14,6%
19,4%
12,8%
4,1%
9,5%
3,1%
7,8%
4,5%
0,8%
2,6%
5,4%
6,0%
7,9%
8,2%
10,7%
15,2%
20,8%
22,5%
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private Households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Services
Employment and GDP share
per industry
Employment shares, Q3: 2019
20

-30
-24
-21
-18
-8
-4
35
38
38
56
Manufacturing
Construction
Trade
Utilities
Transport
Finance
Private households
Agriculture
Mining
Community and social services
Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000)
-163
-23
-21
-10
4
13
20
38
41
103
Construction
Utilities
Transport
Finance
Community and social services
Mining
Private households
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Trade
Year-on-year change (‘000)
Employment gains were observed in Services, Mining, Agriculture and Private
households (q/q). Largest declines were observed in Manufacturing, Construction, Trade and
Utilities.
Employment changes by
industry
21

56 000
Mainly driven by gains in:
❖ Human health
activities.
❖ S. A. defence force.
❖ S. A. police services.
Services AgricultureMining
❖ Farming of animals
38 000
Q/Q Q/Q
Employment gains were mainly driven by services (56 000), mining (38 000),
agriculture (38 000) and private households (35 000).
Quarter-on-quarter
employment changes:
Gains
38 000
Q/Q
Private households
35 000
Q/Q
❖ Mining of non-ferrous
metal ore
22

30 000
Manufacturing TradeConstruction
Mainly driven by losses in:
❖ Retail trade not in
stores
❖ Retail trade in food,
beverages and tobacco
in specialised store
21 000
Employment losses were mainly driven by manufacturing, construction, trade and
utilities.
Quarter-on-quarter
employment changes:
Losses
24 000
Utilities
18 000
Mainly driven by losses in:
❖ Building construction
Mainly driven by losses
in:
❖ Production,
collection and
distribution of
electricity
Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q
Mainly driven by
losses in:
❖ Manufacture of
basic iron ore and
steel
23

Employment share by
occupation, Q3:2019
Close to a third (29,3%) of all people employed in Q3:2019 were employed in
elementary and domestic work occupations.
0,4%
5,9%
6,3%
8,2%
8,5%
8,8%
10,4%
11,7%
17,0%
23,0%
Skilled agriculture
Professional
Domestic worker
Plant and machine operator
Technician
Manager
Clerk
Craft and related trade
Sales and services
Elementary
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0
24

The formal sector in South Africa accounted for 68,5% of total employment in Q3:2019.
Formal sector employment
Q3:2009 Q3:2019
9,8M
11,2M
2,1M
3,0M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Millions
Formal sector employment Informal sector employment
Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend,
increasing from 9,8 million in Q3:2009 to 11,2 million in
Q3:2019
Informal sector employment increased from 2,1
million in Q3:2009 to 3,0 million in Q3:2019 Informal sector employment
25

4,5M
6,7M
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
70,9%29,1%
60,3%39,7%
The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,5 million in
Q3:2009 to 6,7 million in Q3:2019. The proportion of those in long-term unemployment
increased from 60,3% in Q3:2009 to 70,9% in Q3:2019
Number of unemployed for one
year or longer
Long Term Unemployed*
Short Term Unemployed
Number of unemployed
* Unemployed for a year or longer
Q3
2009
Q3
2019
M
27

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q3:2019 Q3:2019
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q3:2019 Q3:2019
30,9%
27,7%
SA: 29,1%
41,6%
35,9%
SA: 38,5%
Official Unemployment Rate
29,1% (+0,1% Points Change Q/Q)
Expanded Unemployment Rate
38,5% (+0,0 % Point Change Q/Q)
10,3 million
people were unemployed in Q3:2019
An increase of 45 000 q/q
Expanded Definition includes the following
- Official unemployment (searched and available) 6,7 M
- Available to work but are/or
• Discouraged work-seekers 2,8 M
• Have other reasons for not searching 0,7 M
6,7 million
people were unemployed in Q3:2019
An increase of 78 000 q/q
28

7,4%
11,2%
22,5%
32,7%
29,0%
7,4%
13,3%
23,5%
32,8%
29,1%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
Black
African
Both sexes
Unemployment Rate
by Population Group
Q3:2019 Q2:2019
6,1%
8,5%
22,1%
30,8%
27,1%
6,8%
10,6%
23,4%
31,3%
27,7%
Male Unemployment Rate
By Population Group
Q3:2019 Q2:2019
Black women are the most vulnerable
with unemployment rate of over 30%.
OFFICIAL unemployment rate
by population group and sex
Black African women are the most vulnerable with an unemployment rate of over 30%.
9,2%
16,2%
23,0%
35,0%
31,3%
8,1%
18,2%
23,7%
34,5%
30,9%
Female Unemployment Rate by
Population Group
Q3:2019 Q2:2019
29

9,8%
15,5%
29,2%
43,0%
38,5%
9,3%
17,6%
28,6%
43,1%
38,5%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
Black
African
Both sexes
Expanded unemployment
rate by population group
Q3:2019 Q2:2019
7,6%
12,3%
27,0%
39,5%
35,0%
8,4%
14,8%
27,9%
40,3%
35,9%
Male expanded
unemployment rate
Q3:2019 Q2:2019
12,7%
21,2%
31,6%
46,9%
42,5%
10,5%
22,6%
29,3%
46,2%
41,6%
Female expanded
unemployment rate
Q3:2019 Q2:2019
Irrespective of sex, the black African and coloured population groups remain
vulnerable in the labour market
EXPANDED unemployment rate by
population group and sex
30

31
Official Expanded
EC recorded the highest unemployment rate in both official and expanded. LP, KZN and
NW provinces all have more than 14 % points difference between their expanded and official unemployment
rates
Provincial unemployment rate:
Official vs Expanded Q3:2019
41,9%
24,5%
41,4%
38,5%
43,0%
45,1%
35,1%
42,5%
43,9%
46,5%
21,4%
21,5%
25,9%
29,1%
29,8%
30,4%
31,0%
34,5%
35,3%
36,5%
LP
WC
KZN
RSA
NC
NW
GP
FS
MP
EC
20,5% points difference

UNDERSTANDING
NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE
(NEA)
QLFS
Q3:2019
32

33
Student
40,8%
Home-maker
16,8%
Illness/disability
9,4%
Too old/young to work;
9,7%
Discouraged work seekers;
18,0%
Q2:2019 to Q3:2019
% Change5 main reasons for NEA
NEA
M
M
M
M
15,5 M
Quarter-on-quarter changes
Thousand
Student 30
Homemaker 88
Illness/disability -103
Too young/too old to work -2
Discouraged work seekers 44
Other -47
Up by 0,3 of
a % point
Remained
unchanged
Q2:2019 to Q3:2019
Change in levels
Up by 0,6 of
a % point
Up by 0,2 of
a % point
Down by 0,7
of a % point
15,5 million people aged 15 – 64 years were not economically active.
This is an increase of 9 000 q/q
Reasons why – Not
economically active (NEA)

UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
EMPLOYMENT
GAINS
EMPLOYMENT
LOSSES
YOUTH
Employment gains were
recorded in Services (56
000), Mining (38 000),
Agriculture (38 000) and
Private households (35 000).
Largest employment
losses were observed in
Manufacturing
(30 000), Construction
(24 000), Trade (21 000)
and Utilities (18 000)
Of the 10,3 million persons
aged 15-24 years, 32,3%
were not in employment,
education or training.
Recap
Q3:2019
Unemployment rate
increased by 0,1 of a
percentage point to 29,1%
Absorption rate remained
unchanged and labour force
participation rate increased by 0,1
of a percentage point
34

Ndzi hela kwala!
QLFS
Q3:2019
35

QLFS_Q3_2019 Presentation

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