The Gensol Group white paper discusses the significant growth of the solar PV market in India, highlighting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 60% for the country compared to 37% globally, with expectations to reach 100 GW capacity by 2023. It emphasizes a sharp decline in project costs and solar module prices, dropping by over 71% from September 2013 to January 2019, driven by increased demand and competitive pricing. The report also notes key challenges such as policy implications, currency fluctuations, and the impact of safeguard duties on imported modules affecting the market dynamics.

1. Gensol Group
Solar PV Module Price Index
Price Trend & Forecast 2019
Gensol Engineering Pvt. Ltd
White Paper
Copyright © Gensol Engineering Pvt. Ltd., 2019
Author
Gensol Group
Publication Date
19.02.2019

2. Gensol Group
1. INTRODUCTION - PV MARKET DEMAND
Solar Market in the India completely depends on the demand and module supply. Looking into
the last few years’ trends, there has been huge market bloom in the country. Major role of the
growth of the market depends on the supply of module at the lowest prices leading to
competitive environment in the industry. Chinese suppliers dominating the solar module market
in India as well as globally & continue to lead rankings.
It should be noted that there has been remarkable addition of solar PV installations of 524.64GW
globally as on 2018 and 25.21GW in India. The analysis has been carried by Gensol estimates the
Global Solar Market is growing at Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 37% YoY over a
course of 19 years since 2000; which is quite bright number and expected to reach 1000 GW by
2026. However, looking into India’s CAGR of 60% YoY for same period, double of growth of
Global, indicating huge solar demand in Country and is estimated to reach 100GW before 2023,
if all goes as per the current trend.
Graph 1 Global & India Solar PV Installations & Forecast (GW)
2. PROJECT COST TREND –GLOBAL
Global increasing demand of solar PV systems has steered steep fall in overall project cost of PV
systems. Studied carried out by NREL shows average of decline 30% since 2010 to 2018.
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Global & India Solar PV Installations & Forecast (GW)
Global Installed Capacity (GW) India Installed Capacity (GW)

3. Gensol Group
Global Solar PV Project Cost
Graph 2 NREL PV System Cost Benchmark Summary 2010-2018
Gensol from its vast experience of solar industry in India, has noted the significant drop in project
cost. The cost from various executed solar PV projects has been plotted & Year on Year (YoY)
comparison has been shown. The project cost has been also compared with Central Electricity
Regulation Committee (CERC) benchmark cost.
Indian Solar PV Project Cost
Graph 3 Solar PV System Cost Trend Summary-India 2014-2019
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Solar PV Project Cost Trend (INR in Crores/MW)
Project Cost/MW CERC Benchmark Cost/MW
FY 15-16 FY 16-17 FY 17-18 FY 18-19FY 14-15

4. Gensol Group
We have evaluated a sharp declination of 50% in the project cost since last 5 years in India. There
are key market & technology developments in Balance of System (BoS) like inverter, modules,
Installation labor costs, cables (AC/DC), evacuation etc.
3. SOLAR PV PRICE TREND
Knowing the fact that, solar PV modules are accounting 60% of the overall project cost, there has
been reduction in solar PV modules since 2014 right from solar cell manufacturing. Module price
trend has been declined with the increased solar PV demand & competition among the industry.
The trend has been studied for the modules supplied from South East Asia especially China to
India from September 2013 to January 2019. The maximum module price of 74.67 Cents was
observed in March 2014 and minimum module price 19.90 Cents in January 2019 with average
module price of 48.60 Cents. The module prices are precipitously fallen down by 71.34% from
Sept 2013 to January 2019. The CAGR of module prices have been estimated to be -14.78% YoY
basis.
Graph 4 Module Price Trend & Forecast 2013-2026
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Module Price Trend & Forecast (2013-2026)
India Installed Capacity (GW) Module Price Trend in Cents
PredictedCurrent Trend

5. Gensol Group
Considering the similar price trend, the module prices have been further forecasted on the basis
of CAGR -14.78% YoY evaluated. If the trend continues, the prices are expected to fall down to
approximately 8.0 cents by 2026.
However, the analysis has been done on quarterly basis (Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4) on yearly basis to
see impact of demand and supply of ratio on PV modules in past 5 years. The analysis shows the
change in price trend of modules on quarterly basis and it can be analyzed that the quarterly
fluctuations are continuous. Looking into the overall scenario, the module prices increased in Q4
2016 by 3.3% due to sudden increase in demand. Although, Q3 2017 was most favorable as
module prices fallen by 16.7% (36.53 Cents to 30.46 Cents) due to adequate supply of modules
and production of silicon wafers. Again, Q3 2018 was noted as big bumper for solar market with
least declination of 4.6% (25.12 Cents to 22.36 Cents) in price with respect to Q2 2018.
Graph 5 Quarterly Variation in Module Price Trend YoY in %
There are several reasons investigated for slow down Q3 2018 irrespective of huge solar tenders
or demand in country like currency fell upto INR 73 rupees against Dollar price, cancellation of
auctions & tenders and renegotiations in Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) due to lower bid
tariffs, Antidumping Duty, Goods and Service Tax (GST) of 5% on solar PV modules and 18% on
supply of equipment and infrastructure approval delays from Government authority.
-0.83%
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-6.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Quaterly Module Price Change
% Change in Price (Q1-Q2) % Change in Price (Q2-Q3) % Change in Price (Q3-Q4) % Change in Price (Q4-Q1)

6. Gensol Group
The biggest factor was imposition of the Safeguard Duty from 30th July 2018 of 25% for the 1st
year and 20% for period of 6 months and 15% for next 6 months of 2nd year on imported solar
modules from China and Malaysia to promote Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) category
module.
Graph 6 Solar Tender Summary 2017 Vs & 2018
We can clearly see that 12 GW of projects tendered (including 4 GW of tenders were cancelled),
of which, only 3.4GW (28%) projects are auctioned. Hence, implication of new policies, taxes,
market, or any other reasons have high influence on solar industry.
Tendered
46%
Auctioned
38%
Cancelled
16%
Solar Tender Summary 2017
Tendered
52%Auctioned
22%
Cancelled
26%
Solar Tender Summary July 2018
Onwards