OS20 - Modelling the spread of transboundary animal disease in and between domestic and wild swine populations - Richard Bradhurst

•

0 likes•1,532 views

The document discusses extending the EuFMDiS model, which simulates the spread of livestock disease in Europe, to include wildlife spread pathways. Specifically, the model was extended to represent the spread and control of classical swine fever in both Spanish domestic pig populations and wild boar populations. The extended model incorporates a new cellular automata-based wildlife disease model to represent the spread of the disease within and between wild boar populations and between wild boar and domestic pig populations. It considers factors like wild boar distribution and behavior as well as biosecurity measures that influence disease transmission.

Health & Medicine

1EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
Richard Bradhurst1, Graeme Garner2, Shankar Yadav2, Maria de la Puente2, Martin Lange3, Hans-
Herman Thulke3, Joaquín Vicente4, Germán Cáceres Garrido5, Koen Mintiens2
1Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, School of BioSciences, University of Melbourne, Australia.
2European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease, FAO, Rome, Italy
3Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Ecological Modelling, Leipzig, Germany
4National Institute on Wildlife Research (IREC), University of Castilla-La Mancha and Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Ciudad Real, Spain
5Animal Health and Traceability, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Spain
Modelling the spread of transboundary animal disease
in and between domestic and wild swine populations

2EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
• Wildlife may play an important role in the epidemiology of several serious livestock diseases.
It is important to have a good understanding of the potential role of wild animals in the
establishment, maintenance and spread of such diseases. Disease models are useful tools
that can assist disease mangers to better understand the risks, and test approaches to
disease control.
• EuFMDiS is a continental-scale model of livestock disease designed to support emergency
animal disease planning in Europe. It is a multi-country adaptation (funded by the EuFMD), of
the Australian Government’s national-scale livestock disease model AADIS.
• EuFMDiS simulates the spread of livestock disease within and between countries and allows
control policies to be enacted and resourced on per-country basis. It provides decision support
in assessing the risk of disease introduction, establishment and spread; control approaches in
terms of effectiveness and costs; resource management; and post-outbreak management
issues.
• The objective of this project was to extend the EuFMDiS model to include wildlife spread
pathways. The spread and control of classical swine fever (CSF) in Spanish domestic pigs
and wild boar was selected as the test case.

3EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
• The project incorporated a new cellular-automata-based wildlife disease model into the
existing EuFMDiS agent-based livestock disease model.
• The spread of CSF within a wild boar cell is represented by a compartmental SEIRDC model.
• The spread of CSF between wild boar cells is represented by contact rate-based diffusion and
jump spread pathways.
• The spread of CSF between domestic herds and wild boar cells is represented by spatial
kernel-based diffusion pathways.
• The spread pathways consider regional and seasonal influences on wild boar distribution,
abundance and behaviour, infectious prevalence of live and deceased swine, biosecurity
measures in place on domestic pig holdings, and environmental influences on virus resilience
and transmission.

4EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se

The document analyzes cattle movement data from a Brazilian state to estimate the coverage of its slaughterhouse-based surveillance system for bovine tuberculosis. It finds that slaughterhouses could monitor herds up to 5 trade connections away indirectly. However, 48.5% of premises and 35% of cattle in the state were not covered by the slaughterhouse surveillance system based on the cattle trade network. The aim was to characterize the cattle population covered directly and indirectly by slaughterhouse inspections and identify gaps.

OS20 - Comparing surveillance approaches to support regaining free status aft...

EuFMD

This document compares different surveillance approaches that could be used to demonstrate freedom from foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) after an outbreak. Epidemiological modeling was used to simulate FMD outbreaks in Australia with and without emergency vaccination. Traditional post-outbreak surveillance based on serological testing was compared to alternative approaches using non-invasive sampling methods like oral swabs and bulk milk testing, along with real-time PCR testing. The results showed the alternative approaches could complete surveillance faster and at lower cost, especially for larger outbreaks, without reducing effectiveness. Alternative FMD surveillance methods have potential to make post-outbreak testing more efficient.

OS20 - The role of local and regional livestock movements in Foot-and-Mouth d...

EuFMD

Efrem Alessandro Foglia investigated FMD outbreaks in northern Tanzania in 2018. Both type O and type SAT2 viruses circulated in the study site during that year. Inter-village connectivity through shared resource areas and local/regional livestock trade between East African countries facilitated the spread of FMD. Identifying these connectivity points could enable targeted interventions to allow livestock mobility while controlling FMD.

OS20 - Effective risk communication for animal disease emergencies - Lisa Bo...

EuFMD

Professor Lisa Boden discusses effective risk communication for animal disease emergencies. She notes that communicating known risks and knowledge gaps to relevant stakeholders and society is a professional and moral imperative. The presentation explores risk communication aims and effective strategies, considering barriers and opportunities. It concludes that timely, audience-appropriate communication leads to better risk management and ensures up-to-date knowledge informs decision making.

OS20 - Empowering veterinary paraprofessionals in Africa for better control o...

EuFMD

This document summarizes efforts to empower veterinary paraprofessionals in Africa for better control of transboundary animal diseases. It discusses how veterinary paraprofessionals play a critical role in service delivery but often lack proper training, recognition, and regulation. Initiatives by the OIE and EuFMD aim to strengthen competency acquisition and recognition of paraprofessionals by providing guidelines for their training and establishing sustainable service delivery models. This will enhance prevention of diseases like PPR and FMD, working towards the goal of PPR eradication by 2030 and building resilience against animal health emergencies.

OS20 - Epidemiological investigation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreaks in a...

EuFMD

This study investigated foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in 2011 at a bear rescue center in Vietnam. The aims were to estimate epidemiological parameters of FMD in captive bears, analyze risk factors for clinical FMD, and assess the relationship between seroconversion and clinical signs. The results showed that the serial interval of FMD ranged from 4-15 days, suggesting point-source outbreaks with secondary transmission. The mean reproduction number peaked at 5.35, indicating rapid spread. All bears that developed clinical FMD seroconverted, and 35.3% of bears exposed to FMDV showed seroconversion without clinical signs. Younger bears had higher odds of developing clinical FMD. The study

OS20 - Animal disease emergency management –a rapid documentation of learning...

EuFMD

This document discusses lessons learned from the government response to recent animal disease outbreaks in Assam, India. It identifies 10 key learnings, including the importance of building veterinary services' capacity to use data for decisions, decentralizing decision-making to quickly contain diseases, and conducting multistakeholder capacity building for improved communication. The poster describes the government response to outbreaks of African Swine Fever and Lumpy Skin Disease amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and natural disasters in Assam.

OS20 - Goat movements within the Foot-and-Mouth Disease protection zone of So...

EuFMD

This document summarizes a study on goat movements within South Africa's foot-and-mouth disease protection zone. The study found that 22% of respondents moved new goats into their holdings in the past year, while 56% moved goats out. Focus group discussions identified four locations in the suspended FMD-free zone linked to goat movements from the study area. Many respondents were unaware they needed veterinary permits for animal movements. The findings suggest goats are moved without permits into the FMD-free zone, potentially spreading the virus. The information will help improve disease surveillance and vaccination programs in the FMD protection zone.

This document discusses Turkey's efforts to improve outbreak investigations for foot-and-mouth disease control. A new three-stage outbreak investigation system was developed, categorizing outbreaks by priority level. Trainings were conducted to improve investigation abilities. As a result, over 200 suspected outbreaks were investigated in 2019-2020, with many confirmed. Improved investigations led to the detection of additional unreported outbreaks. The new approach aims to advance Turkey's control of foot-and-mouth disease.

OS20 - The use of foot-and-mouth disease models in disease free and endemic s...

EuFMD

The document discusses the use of mathematical models for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in disease-free and endemic settings. In emerging outbreaks, models can predict disease spread but have significant uncertainty. Models are better at predicting outbreaks after the first 2-3 weeks when more data is available. In endemic regions, models can identify what is driving transmission and help target data collection to reduce uncertainty. Movement data can also help predict future risk and inform monitoring. While models have limitations early on, sophisticated techniques may help develop optimal control policies over time as an outbreak unfolds.

OS20 - Risk factors associated with FMD endemicity in eastern Rwanda. - Jea...

EuFMD

The document summarizes a study investigating risk factors for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in eastern Rwanda. The study found that 40.15% of farmers did not vaccinate calves under 12 months of age, which was associated with increased FMD outbreaks. Having sheep and goats on the same farm was also linked to higher chances of outbreaks. Surprisingly, farms further from the park fence experienced more FMD than those adjacent, possibly due to less impact from transboundary animal movements after the park was fenced in 2013. The study recommends expanding vaccination programs to target both older and younger cattle.

OS20 - Evaluation of a brucellosis control strategy in small ruminants in Bos...

EuFMD

This document summarizes a study that evaluated the costs and benefits of Brucella melitensis control strategies in small ruminants in Bosnia and Herzegovina. An epidemiological and economic model was used to compare an applied vaccination program to a test-and-slaughter strategy. The cost-benefit analysis over an eight-year period found that the vaccination program required 75% less funds but did not reduce prevalence below 1% at the herd level, while the test-and-slaughter strategy was more effective at reducing prevalence but required more financial resources. Based on the outcomes, a vaccination strategy was determined to be the optimal control decision from veterinary, economic, and human health perspectives.

OS20 - Bovine ephemeral fever in the European neighbourhood between 2015 and ...

EuFMD

1. A survey was conducted of 270 veterinarians from 21 countries neighboring the EU on their knowledge and experience with Bovine Ephemeral Fever (BEF) between 2015-2019. The majority of respondents were official veterinarians. 2. Results showed BEF occurrence was reported in many countries, especially during summer and autumn months. Surveillance and diagnostic capacity for BEF varied between countries. 3. Respondents felt more training was needed on BEF epidemiology, diagnosis and control. Few countries had active surveillance, vaccination programs or classified BEF as a notifiable disease.

OS20 - Predicting Foot-and-Mouth Disease virus in tropical endemic settings u...

EuFMD

This document describes an agent-based model developed to simulate foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) persistence and transmission in the tropical region of Far North Cameroon. The model incorporates data on livestock movement patterns and the authors' previous research showing FMDV can persist in tropical environments under certain temperature and humidity conditions. The model predicts that indirect transmission via environmental contamination results in a seasonal pattern of FMD outbreaks, with most infections still occurring directly but indirect transmission accounting for more early in the dry season. Differences in indirect transmission proportions and timing of infections between mobile and sedentary herds suggest herd mobility influences disease dynamics. The objective was to use this agent-based modeling approach to better understand how FMD

OS20 - How do you define a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in an endemic cont...

EuFMD

Local government veterinarians in Nakuru County, Kenya described foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks as either "controlled" or "persistent", but there was no clear, standardized definition used. Data collected from various government sources and organizations showed inconsistencies in how outbreaks were categorized and reported nationally. Without a uniform definition of what constitutes an outbreak, disease control programs may be based on inaccurate data and discussions about control efforts cannot be properly harmonized.

OS20 - The epidemiological and economic impact of a potential outbreak of foo...

EuFMD

1. A simulation model was used to analyze the potential epidemiological and economic impact of a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in two regions of Austria under different control scenarios. 2. The total costs of an FMD outbreak in Austria were estimated between €269-581 million, with the majority from export losses. The impact depends on control measures used, location, and available resources. 3. Current estimated resources for surveillance and cleaning/disinfection in Austria would be insufficient, leading to a longer outbreak. Alternative control strategies like vaccination could more efficiently limit the outbreak.

OS20 - California FMD vaccination planning - L. Quiroz/ P. Hullinger

EuFMD

California has developed a vaccination plan as part of its FMD response due to challenges with stamping out, including dense dairy farms and limited rendering capacity. The plan requires advanced preparation, such as establishing protocols for receiving, storing, and administering vaccine. Officials will work with industry groups and veterinarians to identify bottlenecks and socialize the concept of vaccination. The objective is to be prepared to effectively use vaccination if an FMD outbreak occurs in California.

OS20 - Survey on 10years Foot and Mouth Disease outbreaks in Bushehr province...

EuFMD

An epidemiological survey was conducted on foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Bushehr Province, Iran from 2009 to 2019. The survey found 144 total outbreaks over the 10-year period, with 62% occurring when new FMD virus serotypes emerged in 2009 and 2015. Cattle feedlots and herds with free-range grazing cattle had the highest risk of disease. No significant correlation was found between FMD outbreaks and vaccination rates. The results indicate that FMD occurs at a hypoendemic level in Bushehr Province and that controlling disease in high-risk cattle populations like feedlots is a key factor for disease management.

OS20 - Spread: deciphering farm-to-farm FMD transmission through a big data d...

EuFMD

SPREAD is a big data decision support system that uses genomic epidemiology and integrates complex datasets like meteorological and genomic data to help explain local spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) from farm to farm. SPREAD analyzes potential transmission pathways like wind dispersion of infected aerosols. It has been verified by reconstructing and comparing outcomes to past FMD outbreaks in publications. The next steps for SPREAD involve enabling real-time analysis and visualization by veterinary services and linking it to farm boundary data for more accurate risk analysis.

OS20 - Virtual Reality Technology to Support FMD Training - Corrie Croton

EuFMD

Novus Res developed 5 virtual reality training modules on foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) for the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment to complement existing emergency animal disease training. The VR modules allow users to perform FMD training tasks on a virtual farm and cover topics like biosecurity control points, disease investigations, sampling, and interviewing farmers. A pilot test of the VR modules within the Department aims to prove the concept and evaluate the user experience of VR as an efficient and scalable method for remote FMD training.

OS20 - Modeling of freedom from Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) and sheep an...

EuFMD

This document summarizes modeling of freedom from peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and sheep and goat pox (SGP) in the Thrace region shared by Bulgaria, Greece, and Turkey. The Cameron surveillance model, previously used to estimate freedom from foot-and-mouth disease, was adapted for PPR and SGP by updating input parameters and surveillance components based on country data and expert opinions. Model outputs showed a high probability of freedom achieved quickly, mainly due to full coverage of passive reporting surveillance. Both countries have achieved over 97% confidence in freedom from PPR and SGP. Current surveillance systems have successfully provided evidence of freedom and detected potential outbreaks in the region.

OS20 - Developing an analytical model to predict FMD vaccine demand for endem...

EuFMD

The document describes the development of an analytical model to predict Foot-and-Mouth disease vaccine demand for endemic countries. The model considers factors like livestock population, vaccination coverage percentages, outbreak numbers, and PCP (Progressive Control Pathway) stage to calculate total vaccination needs between prophylactic vaccination, emergency vaccination, and overall. It outlines key data sources and plans for further model development, including accounting for regional differences, livestock sectors, vaccine schedules, and model evaluation.

A NEW APPROACH ON OUTBREAK INVESTIGATIONS FOR THE CONTROL OF FOOT-AND-MOUTH D...

EuFMD

This document describes Turkey's new approach to investigating foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks, which involves prioritizing outbreaks into three levels and implementing specific measures for each level. A standard operating procedure was developed outlining a three-stage outbreak investigation plan. Over 200 suspected outbreaks were investigated between 2019-2020, with most being confirmed, and some receiving more in-depth level II or III investigations. The new outbreak investigation and clinical surveillance schemes were implemented nationwide through training led by Turkey's General Directorate of Food and Control and the European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease. This improved approach aims to further eliminate foot-and-mouth disease in Turkey.

OS20 - Foot-and-Mouth Disease risk mapping in Georgia - Tengiz Chaligava

EuFMD

This document summarizes a risk mapping project in Georgia that aimed to improve risk assessment of foot-and-mouth disease introduction and spread. Several risk factors were identified including live animal markets, migration, export, and import. Districts across Georgia were involved based on these factors. The study found higher animal mobility and risk in Eastern Georgia compared to other areas, confirming the focus of control efforts there. Future risk maps of neighboring countries will allow for better disease risk predictions and targeted control measures.

OS20 - Compartmentalization as a tool for improved resilience to TADs introdu...

EuFMD

This document discusses using compartmentalization to improve resilience to African Swine Fever (ASF) introductions. Compartmentalization involves defining an animal subpopulation with a different health status than the rest of the country through strict biosecurity and management practices. If ASF outbreaks in the country, the compartment's pig population retains its disease-free status. Key aspects of compartmentalization include meeting international animal health standards, allowing disease-free trade without downtime from outbreaks in other areas, and independence from disease status of small farms and wildlife. Effective compartmentalization requires national standards, governance, oversight, emergency response plans, and compartment-level risk analysis, biosecurity, surveillance, and traceability.

OS20 - Foot-and-Mouth disease virus surveillance at markets and abattoirs in ...

EuFMD

The document summarizes a study that used environmental sampling to conduct surveillance for foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) at livestock markets and abattoirs in Cameroon. Samples were collected from six sites across the country and tested for the presence of FMDV RNA. The study found that 173 of 1994 total samples tested positive, with the majority from two sites. Sequence data was obtained from one sample. Questionnaires at the sites provided information on risk factors for FMDV spread. The study demonstrates that non-invasive environmental sampling at livestock hubs can be useful for FMDV surveillance in limited-resource settings.

OS20 - Maternally delivered antibodies to FMD in cattle: is interference on F...

EuFMD

This document summarizes a study on the interference of maternally derived antibodies (MDAs) on foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccination in calves. The study found significant variation in MDA levels between calves in a large dairy farm despite efforts to standardize colostrum administration. It also found that the farm's current vaccination program for calves starting at 2.5 months was appropriate, as delaying vaccination increased susceptibility to infection while earlier vaccination provided no added benefit. The study concludes that heterogeneity in MDAs must be considered to properly tailor vaccination strategies and protect both calves and adult cattle from FMD spread.

OS20 - Modelling virtual training methods to enhance entomological surveilla...

EuFMD

This document summarizes a virtual training course on entomological surveillance for Rift Valley Fever and other mosquito-borne diseases in Libya. The training course was designed in response to outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever in Libya in December 2019. It utilized a blended learning approach with both virtual and in-person components to provide training to Libyan researchers and officials. The training course aimed to establish a scalable model for virtual training that could also be applied to other countries facing similar needs. The outcomes included creating opportunities for laboratory researchers in Libya to gain experience with innovative technology-based training methods to enhance disease surveillance capabilities.

MODELLING THE SPREAD OF TRANSBOUNDARY ANIMAL DISEASE IN AND BETWEEN DOMESTIC ...

EuFMD

This document summarizes the development of a model to simulate the spread of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) in Spanish domestic pigs and wild boar populations. The model extends an existing livestock disease model (EuFMDiS) to include wildlife spread pathways. It represents the domestic pig population in Spain with four herd types and the wild boar population using a cellular automation approach with cells overlaid on a grid map of Spain. The model simulates within-and between-population spread of CSF using compartmental and spatial transmission mechanisms, and allows evaluation of control strategies for both domestic and wild populations.

OS20 POSTER - Modelling the spread of transboundary animal disease in and bet...

EuFMD

The document summarizes efforts to model the spread of classical swine fever (CSF) between domestic pig populations and wild boar populations in Spain. Key points: - The model fuses an agent-based livestock disease model with a new cellular automata-based wildlife disease model to simulate disease spread within and between domestic herds and wild boar populations. - The domestic pig population is divided into four herd types and two regions, while the wild boar population is represented by a grid with cells of around 4 km2 overlaid on Spain. - The model represents disease transmission within herds/cells, between nearby and distant herds/cells, and between domestic and wild populations using compartmental and

What's hot

OS20 - A new approach on outbreak investigations for the control of foot-and-...

EuFMD

OS20 - The use of foot-and-mouth disease models in disease free and endemic s...

EuFMD

OS20 - Risk factors associated with FMD endemicity in eastern Rwanda. - Jea...

EuFMD

OS20 - Evaluation of a brucellosis control strategy in small ruminants in Bos...

EuFMD

OS20 - Bovine ephemeral fever in the European neighbourhood between 2015 and ...

EuFMD

OS20 - Predicting Foot-and-Mouth Disease virus in tropical endemic settings u...

EuFMD

OS20 - How do you define a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in an endemic cont...

EuFMD

OS20 - The epidemiological and economic impact of a potential outbreak of foo...

EuFMD

OS20 - California FMD vaccination planning - L. Quiroz/ P. Hullinger

EuFMD

OS20 - Survey on 10years Foot and Mouth Disease outbreaks in Bushehr province...

EuFMD

OS20 - Spread: deciphering farm-to-farm FMD transmission through a big data d...

EuFMD

OS20 - Virtual Reality Technology to Support FMD Training - Corrie Croton

EuFMD

OS20 - Modeling of freedom from Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) and sheep an...

EuFMD

OS20 - Developing an analytical model to predict FMD vaccine demand for endem...

EuFMD

A NEW APPROACH ON OUTBREAK INVESTIGATIONS FOR THE CONTROL OF FOOT-AND-MOUTH D...

EuFMD

OS20 - Foot-and-Mouth Disease risk mapping in Georgia - Tengiz Chaligava

EuFMD

OS20 - Compartmentalization as a tool for improved resilience to TADs introdu...

EuFMD

OS20 - Foot-and-Mouth disease virus surveillance at markets and abattoirs in ...

EuFMD

OS20 - Maternally delivered antibodies to FMD in cattle: is interference on F...

EuFMD

OS20 - Modelling virtual training methods to enhance entomological surveilla...

EuFMD

What's hot (20)