Dr. Mike Walden (NCSU), shares his latest economic forecast along with regional trends in “What will be next for North Carolina?”

1. WHAT WILL BE THE NEXT
NORTH CAROLINA?
Dr. Michael Walden
Reynolds Distinguished
Professor
North Carolina State
University
1

2. AFTER A DEVASTATING RECESSION,
THE ECONOMY IS IMPROVING
2
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2007 feb
2007 may
2007 aug
2007 nov
2008 feb
2008 may
2008 aug
2008 nov
2009 feb
2009 may
2009 aug
2009 nov
2010 feb
2010 may
2010 aug
2010 nov
2011 feb
2011 may
2011 aug
2011 nov
2012 feb
2012 may
2012 aug
2012 nov
2013 feb
2013 may
2013 aug
2013 nov
2014 feb
2014 may
2014 aug
Source: calculations by Dr. Michael Walden
NCSU INDEX OF NORTH CAROLINA LEADING ECONOMIC
INDICATORS

3. BUT CHANGE – NOT STABILITY –
IS THE RULE IN ECONOMICS
FARM TO FACTORY
FACTORY TO SERVICES
THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION
3

4. JOBS HAVE GONE FROM FARM & FACTORY TO SERVICES
4
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
% of total employment
farming manufacturing services

5. ECONOMIC CHANGE HAS IMPACTED HOW WE
LIVE, WHERE WE LIVE, AND WHAT WE DO
HIGHER LIVING STANDARDS
SMALLER HOUSEHOLDS
URBANIZATION
INEQUALITY
5

6. WINDS OF CHANGE:
THE ECONOMIC FORCES SHAPING OUR LIVES
BRAWN TO BRAIN
NEW GLOBALIZATION
MOBILITY
AGING
TECHNOLOGY
6

7. “CREATIVE DESTRUCTIONISM”
IN NORTH CAROLINA
THE TRADITIONAL “BIG 3”:
TOBACCO
TEXTILES
FURNITURE
THE NEW “BIG 5”
TECHNOLOGY
PHARMACEUTICALS
FINANCE
FOOD PROCESSING
VEHCILE PARTS
WHAT NEXT?
7

8. TWO VISIONS OF THE FUTURE:
1. PESSIMISTIC
AGING POPULATION AND RISING
DEPENDENCY RATE
BIG “GAME-CHANGING”
INNOVATIONS ARE OVER
LAGGING EDUCATIONAL
IMPROVEMENTS
TECHNOLOGICAL UNEMPLOYENT
INCREASED INEQUALITY
RESULT: SLOW GROWTH
8

9. 2. OPTIMISTIC
U.S. DEMOGRAPHIC EDGE
CONTINUED INNOVATIONS
ADAPTIVE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM
AND RE-SKILLING
NEW INDUSTRIES
RESULT: CONTINUED GROWTH
9

10. ADVANTAGES OF NORTH CAROLINA
COMPETITIVE LABOR COSTS
BEAUTIFUL NATURAL AMENITIES
IN THE “SUNNY SOUTH”
CENTERS OF TECHNOLOGY, SCIENCE,
RESEARCH, AND INNOVATION
STRONG IN-MIGRATION
RESULT: 13.5 MILLION PEOPLE IN 2050
10

11. FORCES OF THE FUTURE
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES
VIRTUALIZATION
GENOMICS
RESOURCE EFFICIENCIES
ROBOTS
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS AND
TOURISM
AGING: 13% TO 21% ELDERLY
11

12. IMPLICATIONS FOR WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA
PREMIUM FOR CREATIVE
FIRMS AND WORKERS
MORE INTERNATIONAL SALES
AND TOURISTS
SMALL CAN BE BIG
RISE OF THE “OLD”
12

13. BIG QUESTIONS
SEPARATION OF WORK AND LIVING?
WHAT WILL PEOPLE DO?
CAN WE DEVELOP A “RAPID
RESPONSE EDUCATION SYSTEM”?
WILL OPTIMISTS TRUMP
PESSIMISTS?
13

14. EMBRACE THE ECONOMIC FUTURE
ANTICIPATE CHANGE
PREPARE FOR CHANGE
MONITOR TRENDS
OUR ECONOMY IS THE MOST
DYNAMIC AND ADAPTABLE IN
THE WORLD
14