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Regional Outlook Report - Steve Ha - LEAD:WNC 2014
The 2014 regional outlook report assesses the economic activities and challenges facing Western North Carolina (WNC), highlighting that the region is not recovering economically as quickly as anticipated, with stagnant job growth and declining labor force participation rates. It analyzes employment trends by sector, identifying growing areas such as educational services and real estate, while noting significant losses in manufacturing and construction. Additionally, the report evaluates the economic and fiscal impact of Western Carolina University, emphasizing increased enrollment and the importance of faculty/staff spending in the local economy.
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Regional Outlook Report - Steve Ha - LEAD:WNC 2014
- 1. 1 Regional OutlookReport 2014 Regional Economic Activities of Western North Carolina and Economic Impact of Western Carolina University Inhyuck “Steve” Ha, Ph.D. Professor of Economics College of Business November 12, 2014
- 2. WNC not recoveringas fast as we thought 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GDP Growth Rate WNC NC US NC US WNC
- 3. Seven Economic DevelopmentPartnerships
- 4. WNC is stillstruggling economically Region Median household income, 2007- 2011 Average household income, 2011 Per capita income, 2007- 2011 Persons below poverty level (%), 2011 Advantage West $38,148.8 $50,486.2 $21,430.3 17.3% Charlotte Regional $46,958.7 $62,014.8 $23,803.0 13.8% Piedmont Triad $41,872.7 $55,246.0 $22,268.3 16.4% Reasearch Triangle $47,687.1 $62,755.2 $24,635.5 13.6% Northeast $40,648.3 $52,544.8 $20,921.9 19.7% Southeast $38,656.6 $51,832.6 $20,633.8 19.8% Eastern $40,932.9 $53,180.4 $21,507.8 19.0% Source: US Census and Woods and Poole 2013
- 5. Fewer People Residein WNC: 2000-2010 2000 2010 Source: Woods and Poole 2013
- 6. LFPR has beendeclining substantially in WNC 68% 66% 64% 62% 60% 58% Labor Force Participation Rate Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 63.7% 62.8% 57.3% 56% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 US NC WNC
- 7. WNC job marketis not as good as NC yet 520,000 500,000 480,000 460,000 440,000 420,000 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis 4,400,000 4,200,000 4,000,000 3,800,000 3,600,000 3,400,000 3,200,000 3,000,000 400,000 Total Employment WNC NC 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
- 8. Where jobs werecreated? Sector 90-00 00-10 10-12 Total Employment 21.8% -0.2% 2.2% Growing Sectors Educational Services 73.7% 66.6% 7.2% Real Estate and Rental and Lease 44.3% 58.8% 2.6% Finance and Insurance 30.6% 38.4% -2.2% Mining 11.3% 37.6% 1.7% Professional and Technical Services 51.9% 29.2% 3.6% Health Care and Social Assistance 61.1% 28.0% 2.1% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 63.4% 27.4% 3.1% Administrative and Waste Services 83.6% 25.0% 7.2% Source: Woods and Poole 2013
- 9. Where jobs disappeared? Sector 90-00 00-10 10-12 Declinging Sectors Transportation and Warehousing 26.7% -5.0% 3.7% Wholesale Trade 37.5% -6.3% 3.7% Construction 42.6% -8.7% -1.3% Utilities -50.3% -12.7% 2.8% Information 25.0% -17.4% -2.1% Farm 1.0% -20.9% -5.5% Manufacturing -11.1% -50.6% 2.1% Source: Woods and Poole 2013
- 10. Location Quotient Analysis • To identify the unique characteristics of an economy’s industrial structure • LQ indicates the employment density of an economy - to measure an industry’s labor concentration in a specific region • If LQ > 1, then it means the industry employs a larger share of the work force regionally than on a statewide basis. 10
- 11. Location Quotient AnalysisResults Sector Top Five Sectors Source: IMPLAN Data 2012 Percent of Employment Location WNC NC Quotient Mining 0.2% 0.2% 1.44 Utilities 0.4% 0.3% 1.39 Construction 7.8% 5.9% 1.33 Real estate & rental 5.1% 4.2% 1.23 Health & social services 12.3% 10.1% 1.22
- 12. Location Quotient AnalysisResults (Cont’d) Sector Bottom Five Sectors Source: IMPLAN Data 2012 Percent of Employment Location WNC NC Quotient Educational services 1.4% 2.0% 0.72 Wholesale Trade 2.5% 3.4% 0.72 Information 1.0% 1.5% 0.68 Finance & insurance 3.7% 5.4% 0.67 Management of companies 0.7% 1.4% 0.48
- 13. Economic Multiplier Analysis • Any initial spending has a ripple effect through the economy as successive rounds of re-spending enlarge its impact. • The direct effect is the original impact of new spending on the first tier of suppliers. • The indirect effect estimates the changes in inter-industry purchases as they respond to new demand. • The induced effect refers to the changes in spending from households due to changes in production. 13
- 14. Employment Multipliers SectorEmployment Multiplier Top Five Sectors Information 2.24 Utilities 2.18 Finance & insurance 2.15 Manufacturing 2.13 Management of companies 2.03 Source: IMPLAN Data 2012
- 15. Employment Multipliers (Cont’d) Sector Employment Multiplier Bottom Five Sectors Real estate & rental 1.38 Retail trade 1.36 Arts- entertainment & recreation 1.33 Administrative & waste services 1.33 Accomodation & food services 1.30 Source: IMPLAN Data 2012
- 16. The Economic andFiscal Impact of Western Carolina University in Western North Carolina 16
- 17. Enrollment increased tremendously 17 11000 10,382 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Total Enrollment: 1972 - 2014
- 18. … but fewerfaculty and staff 18 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Faculty and Staff Members 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Faculty and Staff Faculty Only
- 19. Methodology and Model • Study region: 7 counties (Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Swain, and Transylvania Counties) where 95.4% of faculty/staff members reside • Developed an 318-sector input-output model using IMPLAN software based on “spending” • To measure the “ripple effects” of the initial spending • Alumni impact is not included. 19
- 20. Data Collection •Data included: – Payroll expenditures – WCU’s operating expenditures – WCU’s capital expenditures – Student expenditures – Visitor expenditures • WCU student and faculty/staff surveys conducted • Directors interviewed 20
- 21. Economic Impact ofWCU 21
- 22. Economic Impact ofWCU (Cont’d) 22
- 23. Job created and/ormaintained 23
- 24. Tax Impact ofWCU 24
- 25.
Editor's Notes
- #18 Enrollment has increased by 8.1% for the past three years.