Airport forecasting for Luxor International Airport 2019 defining its seasonality patterned, using airline industry model

1. Traffic Forecasting (LXR)
LUXOR International Airport
By: Mohammed Salem Awadh
Aviation Consultant
Date of Issue :
04 Mar 2019
Airport

2. Airport
Outline
• Introduction
• Airline Industry Model
• Forecasting Accuracy
• Case Study : LUXOR International Airport
• Input Data
• Setting Annual Target
• Defining Seasonality
• Results
• Contact

3. Airport
Introduction
• In AviationIndustry,EveryOne Has its own Concept to
Forecast and evaluate the Demand based on their strategies
and philosophy.
• Airbus philosophyis based on consolidation “Hub-to-Hub”.
Leadingto manufacture A380
• Boeingphilosophyis based on Fragmentation “Point-to-Point”.
Leadingto manufacture B787Dreamliner.
• That’s forlongterm forecasting.
• But for short term forecasting,we always face the seasonality
term.
• General practice the Airline IndustryModel can be expressed
by The ARIMA seasonal model.
• Yemenia – applied a new approach addressingSignal tracking,
that control the displacement and rotational factors ofthe new
model.

4. Airport
Airline Industry Model
Airline
Industry
Model

5. Airport
Airline Industry Model
Directional and
Displacement
Factors

6. Airport
Forecasting Accuracy
Accuracy Forecasting Matrix
Coef. Of Determination
Vs
Signal Tracking
https://www.slideshare.net/w
ings_of_wisdom/cdg-paris-
charles-de-gaulle-airport

7. Airport
Case Study : LUXOR International Airport

8. Airport
Input Data : 3-4 years Data Base (2015-2018)

9. Airport
Setting Annual Traffic Target – 2019 LXR

10. Airport
Defining Seasonality Pattern – 2019 LXR

11. Airport
Forecasting Results
• Passengers Forecasting 2019 =
895,816
• R-square= 84.69 %
• Annual Growth = 15.68 %
• Error Range =
+24.74 to – 25.66 %

12. Airport
100 Forecasting Analysis
Airport Forecasting:
100 Analysis Airport
Forecasting
https://www.slideshar
e.net/wings_of_wisdo
m/airport-forecasting-
100-issues

13. Airport
Contact
• Mohammed Salem Awad Hadi
• Consultant – Yemenia
• smartdecision2002@yahoo.com
• Tel: 00 967 736255814
• Yemen - Aden

14. Airport
Thanks