Back To Norms 123 y.pdf
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Back To Norms, It is addressing the impact of Covid19, and when to recover, both IATA are used Pax and Cargo, then we used Dlephi method to reflect the judgment of expert people to reflect their opinion in real life. This research is up todate - we used IATA information
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Back To Norms 123 y.pdf
- 1. Back To Norms By: Mohammed Salem Awad Corporate Planning Director Yemenia
- 2. Outline • Introduction • Covid 19 Stringency Index • Black Swan • Current Situation • Airline Industry • Seasonality • ImpactOf Covid19 • BackToNorms • Passengers Session • Airline Industry • Trend Analysis • SeasonalityAnalysis Outline • SeasonalityAnalysisDetails • Air Cargo Session • Air Cargo Industry • Leveling Analysis • SeasonalityAnalysis- Outline • SeasonalityAnalysis- Details • Results • Summary • References • Contact
- 3. Introduction World Mapping : Covid-19 Stringency Index
- 4. Introduction Countries : China Russia & United States China Russia & United States have Positive Domestic Traffic Growth in 2021
- 5. Introduction Region : Gulf Region + Yemen
- 6. Introduction Country : United Arab Emirate
- 7. Introduction Black Swan Situation Black Swan Theory: A theory that suggests that rare events are unpredictable as if they were impossible to happen. The theory took its name from the swan, as it was widely believed that all birds of this species were white, until black swans were discovered in Western Australia in the 18th century. - It is an unexpected surprise and have a significant impact, and - After it occurs the explanations that it considers predictable appear. The theory was described by The Black Swan in 2007. There are no agreed criteria by classifying an event as a "black swan", so it could be a natural disaster, a sudden war, a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a deadly virus such as the Covid-19 pandemic, but, according to Naseem Nicola, black swan events usually have three main characteristics: - It has not occurred in the recent past, and - the forecasting and forecasting tools used at the time of their occurrence cannot be monitored. - It has a profound impact on societies around the world. - They are inexplicable at the time they occur, and can only be absorbed long enough after they have occurred.
- 11. Airline Industry Airline Forecasting Industry Model - Seasonality
- 12. Airline Industry Black Swan Situation – Impact of Covid 19
- 13. Airline Industry Back To Norms will be May 2023 – Jan 2024
- 15. 15 Polling - Airline Industry – Delphi Method Total Voting = 12234+ 1671 = 13905 Votes
- 16. Airline Industry Passengers Session Back To Norms
- 18. Airline Industry Airline industry reflects a Black Swan Situation, which characterize as unpredictable situation.
- 19. 19 Trend Analysis Trend Analysis (Setting Target) 12 Moving Average Two trend models
- 20. 20 Seasonality Analysis (Pax. Outline) Outline
- 21. 21 Seasonality Analysis ( Pax. Details) Details
- 22. Air Cargo Industry Air Cargo Session Leveling Approach vs. V Shape Recovery
- 23. Air Cargo Market
- 24. 24 Leveling Analysis – Air Cargo Leveling Analysis (Setting Target ) 12 Moving Average Two trend models
- 25. 25 Seasonality Analysis (Air Cargo - Outline) Outline
- 26. 26 Seasonality Analysis ( Air Cargo - Details) Details
- 27. 27 Results Back To Norms : May 2023 – Jan 2024 Polling (LinkedIn) - Recovery On: 2024 Passenger Details : Pre-set Target 2021 = 9097 b. RPKs Dropped by 68.61 % from Actual Level Pre-set Target 2022 = 9559 b. RPKs Dropped by -------- from Actual Level Air Cargo Details : Pre-set Target 2021 = 257 b. CTKs Dropped by 9.59 % from Actual Level Pre-set Target 2022 = 257 b. CTKs Raised by -------- from Actual Level
- 28. 28 Summary Industry practice, we always use a point to point analysis (Month by Month and Year by Year – YoY ) in terms of percentage which is reflected by V shape Curve. But to define the seasonality pattern, we have to work on span of time - interval/period , to create a base line (Reference) to compare, so that we can get a clear picture about the Aviation Industry. All signals indicate, that the airline industry will recover by 2024. For Domestic Operation- most of the big countries are recovered, especially China, Russia and USA. But for international operation still the world suffering from COVID 19 – especially Europe. Air Cargo industry is not significantly impacted in 2020 (dropped by 9.59% ) while in 2021 it shows significant growth at higher level then it was expected.
- 29. 29 References Air Passengers Market Analysis https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/? EconomicsL1=144&EconomicsL2=146#searchFor m Air Cargo Market Analysis https://www.iata.org/en/publications/economics/? EconomicsL1=144&EconomicsL2=147#searchFor m