it is concern forecasting in Aviation,
two case studies are addressded, i.e global world, and Delta Airline, which shows the impact of Covid19, and its recovery in the future.
Back To Norms,
study about defining the seasonality patterned of Dubai Airport
Using Forecasting for both short term and long term - keeping the out come results.
Back To Norms,
It is addressing the impact of Covid19, and when to recover, both IATA are used Pax and Cargo, then we used Dlephi method to reflect the judgment of expert people to reflect their opinion in real life.
This research is up todate - we used IATA information
Air Cargo Forecast 2023 for Aviation IndustryMohammed Awad
Air Cargo Forecast addresses the trends in terms of figures based on the IATA air cargo newsletter. It looks that Air Cargo is the only business unit in aviation that has not been impacted by Covid 19
Forecasting is an important tool for planning, so without planning, there will be a disaster that may happen, i.e what will happen in case of Force Major
For study new destinations, Gravity Model frequently use, which is a tough approach that may not work sometime due to many economic factors in the world and war crises.
Since we use small size of data, the model is not fit properly , but the approach is clearly defined.
Marsa Alam Airport should be supported by Airport Hotel,
Marsa Alam Tourism team, Egypt Air, and Egyptian Civil Aviation Authorities should talk the same language to setup an effective tourist package that will attractive the tourist.
Coronavirus Impact Assessment And Mitigation Strategies In Airlines Industry ...SlideTeam
Major sectors affected by COVID 19 outbreak at global level are tourism and travel, retail and airlines. Following presentation will allow a firm to address a collection of COVID 19 outbreak impact assessment and mitigation strategies reported in airlines industry. This presentation consists mainly five sections namely airlines industry overview, airlines financial analysis, risk assessment and its impact, how risks are mitigated and risk maturity model survey questionnaire. Firstly, airlines industry overview section will help the organization in addressing coronavirus impact on aviation tourism trade and global economy, impact on passenger traffic and revenues, impact on average trip length and impact on global as well as domestic RPKs. Airlines financial analysis section will help the organisation in addressing financial impact of COVID 19 outbreak on airlines industry. Risk assessment and its impact section will cover five major risk caused by coronavirus in airlines industry namely disruption due to social distancing, plummeting employee productivity, stressed supply chain, recession, unemployment and amp; investment pullout, economic instability and amp; civic unrest. How risks are mitigated section will help the firm in addressing measure taken by airlines industry to tackle COVID 19 outbreak. Sub headings covered in the section are business impact analysis, risk readiness assessment, risk management plans, business continuity plans, policy management and incident management. Finally, risk maturity model survey questionnaire section will help the organisation to address survey results of questionnaires asked from frequent flyers. https://bit.ly/37F8iHL
The Aviation Industry Post Covid-19 presented by Elizabeth Amekeamekeelizabeth
Presented in July 2020.
The aviation industry has been hard hit by the current COVID-19 crisis due to travel restrictions and a slump in demand among travellers. This webinar aims at considering New Aviation Trends: Technology, Business, Policy and Career opportunities.
As recent graduates and aviation enthusiasts, we want to inspire a new culture of thinking and doing to enable the industry to quickly respond and better solve problems post COVID-19.
I'm excited to be a part of this S.O.A.R conversation subtitled: NAVIGATING NEW AEROSPACE.
Back To Norms,
study about defining the seasonality patterned of Dubai Airport
Using Forecasting for both short term and long term - keeping the out come results.
Back To Norms,
It is addressing the impact of Covid19, and when to recover, both IATA are used Pax and Cargo, then we used Dlephi method to reflect the judgment of expert people to reflect their opinion in real life.
This research is up todate - we used IATA information
Air Cargo Forecast 2023 for Aviation IndustryMohammed Awad
Air Cargo Forecast addresses the trends in terms of figures based on the IATA air cargo newsletter. It looks that Air Cargo is the only business unit in aviation that has not been impacted by Covid 19
Forecasting is an important tool for planning, so without planning, there will be a disaster that may happen, i.e what will happen in case of Force Major
For study new destinations, Gravity Model frequently use, which is a tough approach that may not work sometime due to many economic factors in the world and war crises.
Since we use small size of data, the model is not fit properly , but the approach is clearly defined.
Marsa Alam Airport should be supported by Airport Hotel,
Marsa Alam Tourism team, Egypt Air, and Egyptian Civil Aviation Authorities should talk the same language to setup an effective tourist package that will attractive the tourist.
Coronavirus Impact Assessment And Mitigation Strategies In Airlines Industry ...SlideTeam
Major sectors affected by COVID 19 outbreak at global level are tourism and travel, retail and airlines. Following presentation will allow a firm to address a collection of COVID 19 outbreak impact assessment and mitigation strategies reported in airlines industry. This presentation consists mainly five sections namely airlines industry overview, airlines financial analysis, risk assessment and its impact, how risks are mitigated and risk maturity model survey questionnaire. Firstly, airlines industry overview section will help the organization in addressing coronavirus impact on aviation tourism trade and global economy, impact on passenger traffic and revenues, impact on average trip length and impact on global as well as domestic RPKs. Airlines financial analysis section will help the organisation in addressing financial impact of COVID 19 outbreak on airlines industry. Risk assessment and its impact section will cover five major risk caused by coronavirus in airlines industry namely disruption due to social distancing, plummeting employee productivity, stressed supply chain, recession, unemployment and amp; investment pullout, economic instability and amp; civic unrest. How risks are mitigated section will help the firm in addressing measure taken by airlines industry to tackle COVID 19 outbreak. Sub headings covered in the section are business impact analysis, risk readiness assessment, risk management plans, business continuity plans, policy management and incident management. Finally, risk maturity model survey questionnaire section will help the organisation to address survey results of questionnaires asked from frequent flyers. https://bit.ly/37F8iHL
The Aviation Industry Post Covid-19 presented by Elizabeth Amekeamekeelizabeth
Presented in July 2020.
The aviation industry has been hard hit by the current COVID-19 crisis due to travel restrictions and a slump in demand among travellers. This webinar aims at considering New Aviation Trends: Technology, Business, Policy and Career opportunities.
As recent graduates and aviation enthusiasts, we want to inspire a new culture of thinking and doing to enable the industry to quickly respond and better solve problems post COVID-19.
I'm excited to be a part of this S.O.A.R conversation subtitled: NAVIGATING NEW AEROSPACE.
Report Link- https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/Autonomous-Underwater-Glider-Market-Report
Cognitive Market Research provides detailed analysis of Autonomous Underwater Glider in our recently published report titled, "Autonomous Underwater Glider 2021" The market study focuses on industry dynamics including driving factors to provide the key elements fueling the current market growth. The report also identifies restraints and opportunities to identify high growth segments involved in the Autonomous Underwater Glider market. Key industrial factors such as macroeconomic and microeconomic factors are studied in detail with help of PESTEL analysis in order to have a holistic view of factors impacting Autonomous Underwater Glider market growth across the globe. Market growth is forecasted with the help of complex algorithms such as regression analysis, sentiment analysis of end-users, etc. #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderReport #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarket #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarketForecast #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarketStatus #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarket2021
Report Link- https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/Autonomous-Underwater-Glider-Market-Report Cognitive Market Research provides detailed analysis of Autonomous Underwater Glider in our recently published report titled, "Autonomous Underwater Glider 2021" The market study focuses on industry dynamics including driving factors to provide the key elements fueling the current market growth. The report also identifies restraints and opportunities to identify high growth segments involved in the Autonomous Underwater Glider market. Key industrial factors such as macroeconomic and microeconomic factors are studied in detail with help of PESTEL analysis in order to have a holistic view of factors impacting Autonomous Underwater Glider market growth across the globe. Market growth is forecasted with the help of complex algorithms such as regression analysis, sentiment analysis of end-users, etc. #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderReport #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarket #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarketForecast #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarketStatus #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarket2021
Report Link- https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/Autonomous-Underwater-Glider-Market-Report Cognitive Market Research provides detailed analysis of Autonomous Underwater Glider in our recently published report titled, "Autonomous Underwater Glider 2021" The market study focuses on industry dynamics including driving factors to provide the key elements fueling the current market growth. The report also identifies restraints and opportunities to identify high growth segments involved in the Autonomous Underwater Glider market. Key industrial factors such as macroeconomic and microeconomic factors are studied in detail with help of PESTEL analysis in order to have a holistic view of factors impacting Autonomous Underwater Glider market growth across the globe. Market growth is forecasted with the help of complex algorithms such as regression analysis, sentiment analysis of end-users, etc. #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderReport #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarket #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarketForecast #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarketStatus #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarket2021
Yemenia Focus (Issue No. 4)
BREAKING THE RULES
RIYADH OR KUWAIT OPERATION
This is the fourth issue of Yemenia focus, addressing the comparison between Riyadh and Kuwait Yemenia stations, during the crises period. The issue is solved by calculating the average trend line, and the seasonality index for the period of 2008-2010. That should be reflected for the period of 2015-2016.
Coronavirus Impact Assessment And Mitigation Strategies On Cruise Industry Co...SlideTeam
Showcase the impact of covid19 on consumer perception and risk mitigation with the help of our Coronavirus Impact Assessment And Mitigation Strategies On Cruise Industry Complete Deck PowerPoint Presentation. In the coronaviridae PPT presentation, we have given an overview of the global cruise industry and tourism to showcase the significant impact of covid19 on GDP growth forecast. The presentation shows a halt in the working of cruise operators, port congestion in marine shipping, and negative impacts from container shipping to oil tankers. The nidovirales PowerPoint layout also highlights the risks caused in the industry like disruption due to social distancing, plummeting employee productivity, impact and disruption on the supply chains, economic instability, civil unrest, and business operations severity. A well-designed risk management plan has been shared in the RNA virus PPT slides conveying outbreak management. Different policies were designed by the firms including sanitation, medical facilities, screening, an inspection of health, and crewmember training. Combined coronavirus incident reports and risk maturity models have also been shared in the sars-cov-2 PPT templates. https://bit.ly/3i5TBCY
The global crane market to increase from US$ XX.X million in 2020 to US$ XX.X million by 2025 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of XX.X% for the period 2020-2025. The research report on the global crane market provides extensive competition analysis. The report includes information on significant products, players, challenges and developments, and other information specific to the crane market. The data in this report is targeted for business and industry practitioners and specifically intended to assist in the explanation, direction, and understanding of the potential of the crane markets. The study focuses on providing readers with an understanding of developments in the industry, market segments, market forecasts, leading players, and market drivers.
The Contagious Effect Of The US Subprime Crisis On Gulf CountriesSana Khelifi
This study tests for financial contagion impact of the US Subprime crisis on Gulf economies both theoretically and empirically.
Theoretically, it investigates the possible connections that could move the Subprime crisis to the Gulf market, by identifying the bridge of channels between the US and GCC countries.
Fundamental channels: the securitization, oil channel and some other commons shocks like the Fed interest rate and the US dollar.
Psychological channels: the herding behavior due to the shift in investor sentiment which is manifested by the massive liquidation and capital outflows.
Empirically, Gaussian Copula has been used to analyze the change in dependence structure from the pre-crisis to the crisis period. Results show significant level of contagion in Kuwait, Dubai stock markets and Saudi market which displays the strongest level.
Contagion signs should be taken into consideration by the portfolio managers (ineffectiveness of the diversification strategies)
Our results can be handy for Gulf central banks who decide for the bailout.
Some limits:
Theoretically: Lack of transparency and sophistication in gulf markets
Empirically: one Gaussian copula out of many was adopted basing on graphical insight.
Airline Experts on COVID-19 Impact and the Way Forward to Unlock New Revenue ...RateGain®
Airline experts research about the Impact of COVID-19 on airline industry with a focus on the lessons that can be learnt from the recovery in the Chinese market. Travel behavior may undergo a change in a post-COVID market and new challenges will be faced by network and route planners. Different demand recovery scenarios are explained along with a data-centric approach towards agility. Revenue managers need to constantly explore the customer behavior is key making it the new normal. In this webinar, way forward for European regional carriers is also discussed where a Day - 1 plan in the new normal is presented by the speakers.
By taking a data-centric approach, unlock new revenue every day with RateGain's airline revenue management software and taking the skies towards a #Bettertomorrow.
To view the recorded webinar, visit: https://bit.ly/2yJYMUE
This is the third issue of yemenia focus, it address the evaluation of two yemenia station i.e Jeddah and Doha, which the best one that earned a max passengers per flight.
BCG Matrix Analysis for Airlines for period Dec 2019Mohammed Awad
The BCG Matrix provides a visual representation that aids decision-makers in understanding the relative position of each business unit within the overall portfolio. It helps in resource allocation, strategic planning, and identifying areas that require attention or investment. Remember that the implementation may vary based on the specific dynamics and challenges each airline faces.
Report Link- https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/Autonomous-Underwater-Glider-Market-Report
Cognitive Market Research provides detailed analysis of Autonomous Underwater Glider in our recently published report titled, "Autonomous Underwater Glider 2021" The market study focuses on industry dynamics including driving factors to provide the key elements fueling the current market growth. The report also identifies restraints and opportunities to identify high growth segments involved in the Autonomous Underwater Glider market. Key industrial factors such as macroeconomic and microeconomic factors are studied in detail with help of PESTEL analysis in order to have a holistic view of factors impacting Autonomous Underwater Glider market growth across the globe. Market growth is forecasted with the help of complex algorithms such as regression analysis, sentiment analysis of end-users, etc. #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderReport #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarket #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarketForecast #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarketStatus #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarket2021
Report Link- https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/Autonomous-Underwater-Glider-Market-Report Cognitive Market Research provides detailed analysis of Autonomous Underwater Glider in our recently published report titled, "Autonomous Underwater Glider 2021" The market study focuses on industry dynamics including driving factors to provide the key elements fueling the current market growth. The report also identifies restraints and opportunities to identify high growth segments involved in the Autonomous Underwater Glider market. Key industrial factors such as macroeconomic and microeconomic factors are studied in detail with help of PESTEL analysis in order to have a holistic view of factors impacting Autonomous Underwater Glider market growth across the globe. Market growth is forecasted with the help of complex algorithms such as regression analysis, sentiment analysis of end-users, etc. #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderReport #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarket #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarketForecast #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarketStatus #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarket2021
Report Link- https://www.cognitivemarketresearch.com/Autonomous-Underwater-Glider-Market-Report Cognitive Market Research provides detailed analysis of Autonomous Underwater Glider in our recently published report titled, "Autonomous Underwater Glider 2021" The market study focuses on industry dynamics including driving factors to provide the key elements fueling the current market growth. The report also identifies restraints and opportunities to identify high growth segments involved in the Autonomous Underwater Glider market. Key industrial factors such as macroeconomic and microeconomic factors are studied in detail with help of PESTEL analysis in order to have a holistic view of factors impacting Autonomous Underwater Glider market growth across the globe. Market growth is forecasted with the help of complex algorithms such as regression analysis, sentiment analysis of end-users, etc. #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderReport #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarket #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarketForecast #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarketStatus #AutonomousUnderwaterGliderMarket2021
Yemenia Focus (Issue No. 4)
BREAKING THE RULES
RIYADH OR KUWAIT OPERATION
This is the fourth issue of Yemenia focus, addressing the comparison between Riyadh and Kuwait Yemenia stations, during the crises period. The issue is solved by calculating the average trend line, and the seasonality index for the period of 2008-2010. That should be reflected for the period of 2015-2016.
Coronavirus Impact Assessment And Mitigation Strategies On Cruise Industry Co...SlideTeam
Showcase the impact of covid19 on consumer perception and risk mitigation with the help of our Coronavirus Impact Assessment And Mitigation Strategies On Cruise Industry Complete Deck PowerPoint Presentation. In the coronaviridae PPT presentation, we have given an overview of the global cruise industry and tourism to showcase the significant impact of covid19 on GDP growth forecast. The presentation shows a halt in the working of cruise operators, port congestion in marine shipping, and negative impacts from container shipping to oil tankers. The nidovirales PowerPoint layout also highlights the risks caused in the industry like disruption due to social distancing, plummeting employee productivity, impact and disruption on the supply chains, economic instability, civil unrest, and business operations severity. A well-designed risk management plan has been shared in the RNA virus PPT slides conveying outbreak management. Different policies were designed by the firms including sanitation, medical facilities, screening, an inspection of health, and crewmember training. Combined coronavirus incident reports and risk maturity models have also been shared in the sars-cov-2 PPT templates. https://bit.ly/3i5TBCY
The global crane market to increase from US$ XX.X million in 2020 to US$ XX.X million by 2025 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of XX.X% for the period 2020-2025. The research report on the global crane market provides extensive competition analysis. The report includes information on significant products, players, challenges and developments, and other information specific to the crane market. The data in this report is targeted for business and industry practitioners and specifically intended to assist in the explanation, direction, and understanding of the potential of the crane markets. The study focuses on providing readers with an understanding of developments in the industry, market segments, market forecasts, leading players, and market drivers.
The Contagious Effect Of The US Subprime Crisis On Gulf CountriesSana Khelifi
This study tests for financial contagion impact of the US Subprime crisis on Gulf economies both theoretically and empirically.
Theoretically, it investigates the possible connections that could move the Subprime crisis to the Gulf market, by identifying the bridge of channels between the US and GCC countries.
Fundamental channels: the securitization, oil channel and some other commons shocks like the Fed interest rate and the US dollar.
Psychological channels: the herding behavior due to the shift in investor sentiment which is manifested by the massive liquidation and capital outflows.
Empirically, Gaussian Copula has been used to analyze the change in dependence structure from the pre-crisis to the crisis period. Results show significant level of contagion in Kuwait, Dubai stock markets and Saudi market which displays the strongest level.
Contagion signs should be taken into consideration by the portfolio managers (ineffectiveness of the diversification strategies)
Our results can be handy for Gulf central banks who decide for the bailout.
Some limits:
Theoretically: Lack of transparency and sophistication in gulf markets
Empirically: one Gaussian copula out of many was adopted basing on graphical insight.
Airline Experts on COVID-19 Impact and the Way Forward to Unlock New Revenue ...RateGain®
Airline experts research about the Impact of COVID-19 on airline industry with a focus on the lessons that can be learnt from the recovery in the Chinese market. Travel behavior may undergo a change in a post-COVID market and new challenges will be faced by network and route planners. Different demand recovery scenarios are explained along with a data-centric approach towards agility. Revenue managers need to constantly explore the customer behavior is key making it the new normal. In this webinar, way forward for European regional carriers is also discussed where a Day - 1 plan in the new normal is presented by the speakers.
By taking a data-centric approach, unlock new revenue every day with RateGain's airline revenue management software and taking the skies towards a #Bettertomorrow.
To view the recorded webinar, visit: https://bit.ly/2yJYMUE
This is the third issue of yemenia focus, it address the evaluation of two yemenia station i.e Jeddah and Doha, which the best one that earned a max passengers per flight.
BCG Matrix Analysis for Airlines for period Dec 2019Mohammed Awad
The BCG Matrix provides a visual representation that aids decision-makers in understanding the relative position of each business unit within the overall portfolio. It helps in resource allocation, strategic planning, and identifying areas that require attention or investment. Remember that the implementation may vary based on the specific dynamics and challenges each airline faces.
Rush Hour Analysis,
Every city has its own pattern of traffic congestion that may reflects by a rush hour. Here we use leveling approach, that define by two factors - Rotational and Displacement. the idea is to define the right repeated cycle with minimum errors, and define the Rush Hour !
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an international organisation that works to build better policies for better lives. their goal is to shape policies that foster prosperity, equality, opportunity and well-being for all. they draw on 60 years of experience and insights to better prepare the world of tomorrow.
Back to norms, is an article that address the event of Black Swan, which is a very hard situation for airline industry, but it shows that there is some light at the end of the tunnel. that may recover soon.
Fare Mapping Analysis,
It is the best way to establish a foundation for Fare, It gives a complete picture for the condition of the flight for sector SHJ-AMM using the input of G9 airline (Al Arabia). in terms of CASK, Aircraft capacity and Fares.
Is Low Cost Carrier Profitable, this time we hold differents senarios by varing load factors and fares, the network is huge and large 128 sectors. hope to enjoy
Setting KPIs level for measuring Airports Performance,
this addressing the traffic flow for airports, and how to set the a KPIs scale to define the performance of airport
Personal Brand Statement:
As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
Premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions for Modern BusinessesSynapseIndia
Stay ahead of the curve with our premium MEAN Stack Development Solutions. Our expert developers utilize MongoDB, Express.js, AngularJS, and Node.js to create modern and responsive web applications. Trust us for cutting-edge solutions that drive your business growth and success.
Know more: https://www.synapseindia.com/technology/mean-stack-development-company.html
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to ma...Lviv Startup Club
Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to make small projects with small budgets profitable for the company (UA)
Kyiv PMDay 2024 Summer
Website – www.pmday.org
Youtube – https://www.youtube.com/startuplviv
FB – https://www.facebook.com/pmdayconference
Recruiting in the Digital Age: A Social Media MasterclassLuanWise
In this masterclass, presented at the Global HR Summit on 5th June 2024, Luan Wise explored the essential features of social media platforms that support talent acquisition, including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok.
Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
This 60-minute webinar, sponsored by Adobe, was delivered for the Training Mag Network. It explored the five elements of SPARK: Storytelling, Purpose, Action, Relationships, and Kudos. Knowing how to tell a well-structured story is key to building long-term memory. Stating a clear purpose that doesn't take away from the discovery learning process is critical. Ensuring that people move from theory to practical application is imperative. Creating strong social learning is the key to commitment and engagement. Validating and affirming participants' comments is the way to create a positive learning environment.
LA HUG - Video Testimonials with Chynna Morgan - June 2024Lital Barkan
Have you ever heard that user-generated content or video testimonials can take your brand to the next level? We will explore how you can effectively use video testimonials to leverage and boost your sales, content strategy, and increase your CRM data.🤯
We will dig deeper into:
1. How to capture video testimonials that convert from your audience 🎥
2. How to leverage your testimonials to boost your sales 💲
3. How you can capture more CRM data to understand your audience better through video testimonials. 📊
Top mailing list providers in the USA.pptxJeremyPeirce1
Discover the top mailing list providers in the USA, offering targeted lists, segmentation, and analytics to optimize your marketing campaigns and drive engagement.
An introduction to the cryptocurrency investment platform Binance Savings.Any kyc Account
Learn how to use Binance Savings to expand your bitcoin holdings. Discover how to maximize your earnings on one of the most reliable cryptocurrency exchange platforms, as well as how to earn interest on your cryptocurrency holdings and the various savings choices available.
3. Forecasting, Goals and Targets
• Forecasting is valid only in a stable economic environments –
but not in the cases of a force major such as a natural disaster,
a sudden war, a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a
deadly virus such as the Covid-19 pandemic.
• So for time series, forecasting will be the mirror of the past with
an uncertain growth or not to repeat the hidden cycles ,
seasons and shocks that may will appear in the future with a
minimum acceptable margin errors .
Introduction
4. Introduction
Driver for Economic growth and
Air Traffic Methodologies
Demand vs Supply
In Aviation
Industry:
Forecasting
depends on the
analyst, data
sampling, and in
what scope should
we treat the
process of
forecast, as it is
involves many
drivers.
5. Introduction
• In Aviation Industry, Every One Has its own
Concept to Forecast and evaluate the Demand
based on their strategies and philosophy.
• Airbus philosophy is based on consolidation
“Hub-to-Hub”. Leadingto manufacture A380
• Boeing philosophy is based on Fragmentation
“Point-to-Point”. Leadingto manufacture B787
Dreamliner.
• That’s for longterm forecasting.
• But for short term forecasting, we always face the
seasonality term.
• General practice the Airline Industry Model can be
expressed by The ARIMA seasonal model.
• Yemenia – applied a new approach addressing
Signal tracking, that control the displacement and
rotational factors of the new model.
Manufacture Concept
11. Introduction
Black Swan Situation
Black Swan Theory:
A theory that suggests that rare events are unpredictable as if they were
impossible to happen.
The theory took its name from the swan, as it was widely believed that all birds
of this species were white, until black swans were discovered in Western
Australia in the 18th century.
- It is an unexpected surprise and have a significant impact, and
- After it occurs the explanations that it considers predictable appear.
The theory was described by The Black Swan in 2007. There are no agreed criteria by classifying an event as a "black
swan", so it could be a natural disaster, a sudden war, a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a deadly virus
such as the Covid-19 pandemic, but, according to Naseem Nicola, black swan events usually have three main
characteristics:
- It has not occurred in the recent past, and
- the forecasting and forecasting tools used at the time of their occurrence cannot be monitored.
- It has a profound impact on societies around the world.
- They are inexplicable at the time they occur, and can only be absorbed long enough after they have occurred.
17. 17
Reading In The Future (Previous Work)
Cases :
1- Air berlin
2 - Turkish Airlines
3- Iceland air
4- IAG group
5- Air Canada
6- Ryan Air
7- Lufthansa
At :
https://www.slidesha
re.net/forecasting/pr
esentations
32. 32
US Carriers – Domestic Market
American Airlines, Skywest, SpirIt, & Hawaiian
33. 33
Results (Global)
Back To Norms : May 2023 – Jan 2024
Polling (LinkedIn) - Recovery On: 2024
Airbus Analysis = Recovery 2023 -2025
Passenger (RPKs) Details :
Pre-set Target 2021 = 9097 b. RPKs The Actual level
Dropped by 68.61 %
Pre-set Target 2022 = 9559 b. RPKs The Actual level
Dropped by 62.39 %
34. 34
Summary 1/2
Forecasting is an important tool for planning, so
without planning, there will be a disaster that may
happen, i.e what will happen in case of Force Major
Industry practice, we always use a point to point
analysis (Month by Month and Year by Year – YoY )
in terms of percentage which is reflected by V
shape Curve ( Black Swain Situation) in the current
situation. We just monitoring the situation –its
beyond your plans and controls.
In case of Airline industry, demand evaluation and
forecasting are a must. But we have first to define
the Recovery Period. Everyone has its own word.
We are addressed two Global Markets –
International and Domestics Markets to evaluate
the recovery period, which clearly shows that the
Domestic Market is in the final stage of recovery,
due the control of the local authority in the country.
35. 35
Summary 2/2
For Domestic Market - most of the big countries are
recovered, especially China, Russia and USA.
Example Delta Airline, shows a fast recovery for
Domestic Passengers, while internationally not.
While for International Market, the picture is different
Here the cross border rules, different authority, and
restrictions by different countries play a major part in
delay of International Market.
All signals indicate, that the airline industry will
recover by 2024.
Also for international operation still the world
suffering from COVID 19 – especially Europe. Due to
most of countries practicing the COVID 19 travelling
restriction between them.
While the crises between Russia and Ukraine is
another factor.