This document analyzes rush hour traffic patterns in Hong Kong over a 5-day period using live congestion data from TomTom. It aims to identify the repeated daily cycle when growth is leveled out. Analysis of the 120 data points found the highest traffic from 7-9am and 5-7pm on weekdays, with Friday evenings peaking higher likely due to people leaving work early. The summary concludes this short study was able to determine Hong Kong's typical working day rush hour cycle despite limited data, and that identifying these periods helps people plan trips to avoid delays.

1. RUSH HOUR
Analysis
By:
Mohammed Salem Awad
Aviation Consultant
Date of Issue:
2 May 2022

2. (Outline)
• Objective
• Tomtom (website)
• Forecasting Model
• Leveling Approach
• Case Study (Hong Kong)
• Input Data - Traffic
• Analysis
• Result
• Summary

3. Objective
Objective of Rush Hour analysis,
is to define the right repeated cycle per day at zero
growth ( i.e Leveling Approach) for the five working
days of live congestion level (RED Line).
While the weekend period does not show /support
the cyclic pattern.

4. Forecasting Model
• Airline Forecasting Model (Traffic – Passengers) :
Almost same approach

5. Forecasting Model
• Basic Concept of Forecasting Model
• Directional
• Displacement
Directional Displacement

6. Forecasting Model
• Leveling Approach :
Directional
Displacement

7. Forecasting Model
• Leveling Approach :
(Slope = Zero)
Directional
Displacement
(The right Displacement factor define by
Minimum Least Square analysis which
consequently lead to the highest
Coefficient of Correlation )

8. Hong Kong – RUSH HOUR
Case Study
Hong Kong
22 April 2022

9. Hong Kong traffic

10. Website
• Tomtom Website :
• https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/hong-kong-traffic/
. It is monitor based on AVERAGE Analysis
- Live Congestion
- Average Congestion in 2019
- Average Congestion in 2021

11. Website
• https://www.tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-index/hong-kong-traffic/
. It is monitor based on AVERAGE Analysis

12. Hong Kong – Rush Hour

13. Input Data
Period : 5 working Days -Started 22 April 2022

14. Input Data
• Input Data:
- 5 working Days
on daily hour bases
- Except week ends days
( Saturday and Sunday )
- 120 data set
- Only Live Congestion
(Red Line).

15. Analysis
• Live Congestion (only):

16. Analysis
• Live Congestion and tested Model :

17. Analysis
• Right Adapted Model :

18. Result – HONG KONG
• Right Repeated Cycle for
every working day (Adjusted):

19. Summary
• Actually every city in the world has its own repeated cycle
per working day.
• Rush Hour Analysis is exploring the rush period in a day so
that every body will be aware and knows that he will
delay if he moved in rush hour time.
• Since it is very short span of time (5days), we don’t expect
a growth, but we are interesting to study the right
repeated cycle that happen per day.
• It is noted that the it is human being nature cause a
person to move at the end of working day (Friday). As
every body happy to move home i.e why Friday ended by
a high peak level.

20. 20
Thank You
Contact
Mohammed Salem Awad
Tel. :00967 736255814
Email: smartdecision2002@yahoo.com