The document summarizes research on managing grazing systems under climate change projections out to 2030. It discusses modeling the impacts of climate stress on livestock indicators like pasture growth and gross margins. It also examines potential adaptation strategies tested, like varying stocking rates and lambing/calving times. The research found climate change will negatively impact farm profits but that adaptations can help, and that flexibility and grazing management will be important for farmers to adapt.

1. Management of grazing systems to 2030 Melissa Rebbeck - SARDI – Climate Applications Acknowledge – Russell Pattinson, Phil Graham, Andrew Moore, Peter Hayman

2. Adaptation project Grass Gro Look at management, production, genetic and financial changes on livestock enterprises (50 ) Current base line enterprises vs base line under climate stress Approaches for adaptation Projections for 2030 Trends – eg 1995 to 2005 Other approaches by this project Sensitivity – Warmer and drier or wetter Spatial – Warmer and drier or wetter location. What we did

4. Role of livestock producers Confirm base case scenarios Suggest adaptations strategies Confirmed which adaptations they are most likely to implement

5. Today Impacts of climate stress on livestock systems Adaptations tested (to date) What we have learned What producers have learned Conclusions

6. Impact of climate projections on key indicators Such as: Supplementary feeding Minimum Ground Cover Pasture growth Gross Margins Ewe or Steer Sale weight Wool Cut/ha Sale times

7. Lucindale Median Pasture Growth Rate – Impacts Historical vs Future (A2) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1/01/2009 15/01/2009 29/01/2009 12/02/2009 26/02/2009 12/03/2009 26/03/2009 9/04/2009 23/04/2009 7/05/2009 21/05/2009 4/06/2009 18/06/2009 2/07/2009 16/07/2009 30/07/2009 13/08/2009 27/08/2009 10/09/2009 24/09/2009 8/10/2009 22/10/2009 5/11/2009 19/11/2009 3/12/2009 17/12/2009 Kg DM/ha/d Base CCSM 3 CSIRO 3.5 ECHAM5 OM GFDL 2.1

8. Gross Margins Merino x terminal sire Lucindale 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate

9. Supplementary Feed Merino x terminal sire 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time - Lucindale Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate

10. Ground Cover Merino x terminal sire 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate

11. March Lambing June Lambing July Lambing 5.5/ha 7/ha 8.5/ha 8.5/ha Sub Clover Phalaris

13. Other approaches Comparing enterprises Sensitivity Spatial

14. Comparing enterprises – dry and wet years - 2030 Big differences between wet & dry years Sheep more resilient in dry years while cattle perform well in wet years

15. Sensitivity approach Surface charts – Brendan Cullen See Brendan Cullen talk Thurs arvo Warmer Drier 1971-2000 Warmer Drier 1971-2000

16. Spatial approach – dry and wet years – 2030 Predicted climates change even between regions Can have big differences on profits 114 5.5 +6% 0% Wet (UK) -17 2.5 +8% -13% Dry (G) Grenfell 240 5.8 +6% -2% Wet (UK) 63 3.6 +10% -17% Dry (G) Yass Profit $/ha Stocking rate Temperature Rainfall

17. Impacts No one future Generally shorter growing seasons Reduced farm Gross Margins and more variability Greater Variability in growth Feed available for less time Perennials not growing as well in higher rainfall areas (South east SA)

18. Conclusions Climate change negatively impacts most enterprises Value of adaptations vary across regions Difficult to get over 50% pasture utilisation without grazing management What we learned

19. What livestock producers learned Minimise need for supplementary feed by; Reviewing lambing and calving times (as per tests in Grass Gro) Review age at first joining Reviewing stocking rates Reviewing sale times Core Breeding and more trading Flexibility to adjust numbers as season progresses Match to livestock condition

20. What livestock producers learned Increase flexibility in their systems by; Varying sale times/rules, confinement feeding, movement, more animal trading (core breeding), self replacing system, agistment Better pasture utilisation by grazing management systems Controlled, cell, rotational, confinement, movement Larger mobs for shorter periods of time Match livestock feed demand to pasture production Maintain high pasture quality by adequate fertiliser Maintaining pasture in growth stage 2

21. Conclusions discussed Total dry matter less with perennials but better feed utilisation Need good grazing management Lucerne not as good with less summer rain Good on non wetting sands or deeper sand (Lucerne) Provide protein Provide ground cover Annuals Performed better than perennials alone in higher rainfall areas Better digestibility Cut excess for feed supplement May incorporate more annuals and less perennials

22. Further recommendations Know your cost of production Good labour efficiency Genetic improvements will lessen the impacts Maximise production /ha not necessarily numbers per ha Increasing livestock trading does not remove the threat in many areas Wool provides a shock absorber in poor seasons Diversify across locations More work on pasture species mixes More analyses and workshops in all southern Australian states

23. Thank you Thank you

24. Long term average rainfall - Lucindale Historical vs Future (2030 A2)

25. Sale weight wether lambs Merino x terminal sire Lucindale 1995-2005 stocking rate x lambing time Mar Jun Jul 5.5/ha Mar Jun Jul 7/ha Mar Jun Jul 8.5/ha Month Lamb Stocking Rate

26. Emissions Scenarios Projections – A2 Scenario focus Range of outputs from 23 GCM’s

28. Gross Margins stocking rate x time of lambing CCSM 3.0 CSIRO 3.5 ECHAM5 OM GFDL 2.1 70-00 01-08 Base A2 Scenarios by 2030 1970-2000 2001-2008 Echam GFDL CCSM Hadgem Stocking Rate 5.5, 7, 8.5 cont. March, June and July lamb Why we chose 1995 – 2005 This is Lucindale Merino enterprise