SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1
Adapting Agricultural Planning and Production to
Prepare for Extreme Weather Uncertainties
Prepared by Stephen P. Nicholson
Vice President – RaboReasearch Food &
Agribusiness
Senior Analyst/Grains and Oilseeds
January 2020
2
Since the Beginning of Agriculture Farmers & Ranchers
have had to Adapt to Changing Climate Conditions
3
U.S. Corn Yields
Over time U.S. corn yield deviation from trend has decreased. Producers have continued to
increase productivity in the face of more difficult weather and climate conditions
-38
-33
-28
-23
-18
-13
-8
-3
2
7
12
17
22
27
32
37
42
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
Change (Y2) Yield (Y1)
Bushels per Acre Bushels per Acre
Note: Shaded bar indicate major U.S. droughts
4
Still Struggling over Definitions of Overused Terms
Sustainability
1. Capable of bring sustained
2.a of, relating to, or being a method of harvesting or using a resource so that the resource is not depleted of
permanently damaged; sustainable techniques, sustainable agriculture
b. of or relating to a lifestyle involving the use of sustainable methods, sustainable society
Stewardship
1. the office, duties, and obligations of a steward
2. The conducting, supervising, of managing or something especially: the careful and responsible
management of something entrusted to one’s care, stewardship of natural resources.
Conservation
1: a careful preservation and protection of something especially: planned management of a natural resource
to prevent exploitation, destruction, or neglect
2: the preservation of a physical quantity during transformations or reactions
Preservation
the act, process, or result of preserving something: such as
a: the activity or process of keeping something valued alive, intact, or free from damage or decay
b: the preparation of food for future use (as by canning, pickling, or freezing) to prevent spoilage
Resilience
1: the capability of a strained body to recover its size and shape after deformation caused especially by
compressive stress
2: an ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change
5
Multi-Dimensional Issue—Not an Either/Or Proposition
• Environmental
• Economic
• Community and
Society
6
Short-term Adjustments by Producers
• Cover Crops
• Two schools of thought on expansion
• Tight geographic footprint
• Wide geographic footprint
• Tillage practices
• No-Till
• Minimal-Till
• Strip till
• Purchasing farmland that drains well
• Crop insurance
• Rotational grazing
7
Percent of Commodity Acreage with Cover Crops, 2017
Maryland leads the Nation due Chesapeake Bay Restoration
Source: Census of Agriculture; Rob Meyers, University of Missouri and NCR-SARE Program; Patterson Clark, Politico Pro DataPoint
8
Growth in Cover Crop Adoption is Lead by the Corn
Belts States, 2012-2017
Source: Census of Agriculture; Rob Meyers, University of Missouri and NCR-SARE Program; Patterson Clark, Politico Pro DataPoint
9
Farmers Used Conservation Tillage Methods on Nearly
75% of U.S. cropland in 2017
96.5
76.6
105.7
104.5
97.38
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
No-Till Low-Till Conventional
Million
Acres
2012 2017
10
Long-term Adjustments by Producers
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, Purdue University, Agricultural Sustainability Institute, Patterson Clark, Politico Pro DataPoint
11
Long-term Adjustments by Producers
Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, Purdue University, Agricultural Sustainability Institute, Patterson Clark, Politico Pro DataPoint
12
Long-term Adjustments by Producers
• Precession agriculture
• Managing inputs
• Optimize yields
• Farmland improvement
• Cover Crops
• Tiling
• Buffer Strips
• Terraces
• Re-establishment of waterways
• Improving Soil Health
• Renewable Energy
• Solar Panels
• Methane Digesters
• Repurposing Farmland
• Return to Permanent Pasture
• Return to natural state—wetlands, timber, e.g.
hunting
• Diversifying Farming Operation
• Integrating livestock with crop production systems
• Increasing crop rotations—less mono-culture
cropping system
• Water Reclamation in Livestock Operations
• Minimizing Water Use in Irrigation
13
Concluding Thoughts and Observations
• Long-Term Profitability Challenges and Tight Margins for Row-Crop Production
• Producers will be stretched to make investment
• Investment in sustainability, conversation etc. will need to show positive economic returns.
• Support of Grassroots Farm Groups—Peer Conversation
• Farmers and ranchers know their weather is changing
• Farmers are more concerned about moving forward than assigning blame.
• Knowledge and idea exchange
• We Need Data
• Data is needed to measure progress
• What data do we need to collect
• How do we collect
• What are producers’ conservation practices
• Research and Resource Support
• Air, water, soil conversation programs; i.e. EQUIP)
• Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)
• Rural infrastructure, e.g. internet needed to access technology
• Continue support of crop insurance
• Public/Private collaboration and education
• In some cases this is already taking place, e.g. NCRS, food companies, producers
• The environment is there to make forward progress
• All stakeholders must realize there is a cost
14
Contact Information
Stephen P. Nicholson
Rabo-AgriFinance
Vice President-RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness
Senior Grains and Oilseed Analyst
14767 N. Outer Road, Suite #400
Chesterfield, MO 63017 U.S.A.
314-317-8278 (office)
314-452-2479 (cell)
Stephen.Nicholson@raboag.com
15
Banking & Securities Disclosure
This document has been prepared exclusively for your benefit and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure other than to Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. (“Rabobank”), registered in Amsterdam. Neither
this document nor any of its contents may be distributed, reproduced or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Rabobank. The information in this document reflects prevailing market
conditions and our judgement as of this date, all of which may be subject to change. This document is based on public information. The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled
or derived from sources believed to be reliable, without independent verification. The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be
derived from any potential offers, transactions, commercial ideas et cetera contained in this document. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation. This document shall not form the basis of or
cannot be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information in this document is not intended and may not be understood as an advice (including without limitation an
advice within the meaning of article 1:1 and article 4:23 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act). This document is governed by Dutch law. The competent court in Amsterdam, The Netherlands has exclusive
jurisdiction to settle any dispute which may arise out of or in connection with this document and/or any discussions or negotiations based on it. This report has been published in line with Rabobank’s long-term
commitment to international food and agribusiness. It is one of a series of publications undertaken by the global department of Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory.
©2016 - All Rights Reserved.

More Related Content

Similar to Nicholson - Feb 2020 USDA Outlook.pptx

Fragility, Conflict and Migration (FCM) & National Policies and Strategies (N...
Fragility, Conflict and Migration (FCM) & National Policies and Strategies (N...Fragility, Conflict and Migration (FCM) & National Policies and Strategies (N...
Fragility, Conflict and Migration (FCM) & National Policies and Strategies (N...
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
 
Sharing Evidence and Experience on Climate-Smart Agriculture in Smallholder I...
Sharing Evidence and Experience on Climate-Smart Agriculture in Smallholder I...Sharing Evidence and Experience on Climate-Smart Agriculture in Smallholder I...
Sharing Evidence and Experience on Climate-Smart Agriculture in Smallholder I...
FAO
 
Managing Specialty Crop Risk in North Carolina 2013
Managing Specialty Crop Risk in North Carolina 2013Managing Specialty Crop Risk in North Carolina 2013
Managing Specialty Crop Risk in North Carolina 2013
RAFI-USA
 
Hub or not to hub - Alison Blay-Palmer & Philip Mount
Hub or not to hub - Alison Blay-Palmer & Philip MountHub or not to hub - Alison Blay-Palmer & Philip Mount
Hub or not to hub - Alison Blay-Palmer & Philip Mount
Local Food
 
Module 2: Climate actions in agriculture and priority setting for investments
Module 2: Climate actions in agriculture and priority setting for investmentsModule 2: Climate actions in agriculture and priority setting for investments
Module 2: Climate actions in agriculture and priority setting for investments
CCAFS | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
 
Craig Cox - Corn/soy systems
Craig Cox - Corn/soy systemsCraig Cox - Corn/soy systems
Craig Cox - Corn/soy systems
Sustainable Food Trust
 
climate smart agriculture concept and its application in India
climate smart agriculture concept and its application in Indiaclimate smart agriculture concept and its application in India
climate smart agriculture concept and its application in India
Yagnesh sondarva
 
Regreening six steps to success afr100
Regreening six steps to success afr100Regreening six steps to success afr100
Regreening six steps to success afr100
PatrickTanz
 
Food Systems at Risk: Why Transformative Adaptation is Needed for Long-Term F...
Food Systems at Risk: Why Transformative Adaptation is Needed for Long-Term F...Food Systems at Risk: Why Transformative Adaptation is Needed for Long-Term F...
Food Systems at Risk: Why Transformative Adaptation is Needed for Long-Term F...
World Resources Institute (WRI)
 
2n SD meeting Sienna Bottom up approach Marwan Haddad
2n SD meeting Sienna Bottom up approach Marwan Haddad2n SD meeting Sienna Bottom up approach Marwan Haddad
2n SD meeting Sienna Bottom up approach Marwan HaddadMarwan Haddad
 
Farm and Food Care AGM Presentation - Sustainable Development in Ontario Soy
Farm and Food Care AGM Presentation - Sustainable Development in Ontario SoyFarm and Food Care AGM Presentation - Sustainable Development in Ontario Soy
Farm and Food Care AGM Presentation - Sustainable Development in Ontario SoyNick Betts
 
Climate-smart agriculture in South Asia: Opportunities and constraints in sca...
Climate-smart agriculture in South Asia: Opportunities and constraints in sca...Climate-smart agriculture in South Asia: Opportunities and constraints in sca...
Climate-smart agriculture in South Asia: Opportunities and constraints in sca...
CCAFS | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
 
WBCSD CSA Workshop - Integrating Climate Resilience in Value Chains: practica...
WBCSD CSA Workshop - Integrating Climate Resilience in Value Chains: practica...WBCSD CSA Workshop - Integrating Climate Resilience in Value Chains: practica...
WBCSD CSA Workshop - Integrating Climate Resilience in Value Chains: practica...
CCAFS | CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
 
COMMUNITY-BASED ADAPTATION (CBA)​
COMMUNITY-BASED ADAPTATION (CBA)​COMMUNITY-BASED ADAPTATION (CBA)​
COMMUNITY-BASED ADAPTATION (CBA)​
Othman Elshaikh
 
Weather-information-PPT-SA-19-20Oct.pptx
Weather-information-PPT-SA-19-20Oct.pptxWeather-information-PPT-SA-19-20Oct.pptx
Weather-information-PPT-SA-19-20Oct.pptx
gizachewyohannesgtg
 
Issues of Food Security and Insurance
Issues of Food Security and InsuranceIssues of Food Security and Insurance
Issues of Food Security and Insurance
Linda Morris Kelley
 
The quest for policy and public expenditure opportunities to support implemen...
The quest for policy and public expenditure opportunities to support implemen...The quest for policy and public expenditure opportunities to support implemen...
The quest for policy and public expenditure opportunities to support implemen...
ILRI
 
Demand-Driven innovation in agriculture: Creating economic opportunity for sm...
Demand-Driven innovation in agriculture: Creating economic opportunity for sm...Demand-Driven innovation in agriculture: Creating economic opportunity for sm...
Demand-Driven innovation in agriculture: Creating economic opportunity for sm...
ICRISAT
 
Arbuckle swcs 2016
Arbuckle swcs 2016Arbuckle swcs 2016

Similar to Nicholson - Feb 2020 USDA Outlook.pptx (20)

Fragility, Conflict and Migration (FCM) & National Policies and Strategies (N...
Fragility, Conflict and Migration (FCM) & National Policies and Strategies (N...Fragility, Conflict and Migration (FCM) & National Policies and Strategies (N...
Fragility, Conflict and Migration (FCM) & National Policies and Strategies (N...
 
Sharing Evidence and Experience on Climate-Smart Agriculture in Smallholder I...
Sharing Evidence and Experience on Climate-Smart Agriculture in Smallholder I...Sharing Evidence and Experience on Climate-Smart Agriculture in Smallholder I...
Sharing Evidence and Experience on Climate-Smart Agriculture in Smallholder I...
 
Managing Specialty Crop Risk in North Carolina 2013
Managing Specialty Crop Risk in North Carolina 2013Managing Specialty Crop Risk in North Carolina 2013
Managing Specialty Crop Risk in North Carolina 2013
 
Hub or not to hub - Alison Blay-Palmer & Philip Mount
Hub or not to hub - Alison Blay-Palmer & Philip MountHub or not to hub - Alison Blay-Palmer & Philip Mount
Hub or not to hub - Alison Blay-Palmer & Philip Mount
 
Module 2: Climate actions in agriculture and priority setting for investments
Module 2: Climate actions in agriculture and priority setting for investmentsModule 2: Climate actions in agriculture and priority setting for investments
Module 2: Climate actions in agriculture and priority setting for investments
 
Craig Cox - Corn/soy systems
Craig Cox - Corn/soy systemsCraig Cox - Corn/soy systems
Craig Cox - Corn/soy systems
 
climate smart agriculture concept and its application in India
climate smart agriculture concept and its application in Indiaclimate smart agriculture concept and its application in India
climate smart agriculture concept and its application in India
 
Regreening six steps to success afr100
Regreening six steps to success afr100Regreening six steps to success afr100
Regreening six steps to success afr100
 
Food Systems at Risk: Why Transformative Adaptation is Needed for Long-Term F...
Food Systems at Risk: Why Transformative Adaptation is Needed for Long-Term F...Food Systems at Risk: Why Transformative Adaptation is Needed for Long-Term F...
Food Systems at Risk: Why Transformative Adaptation is Needed for Long-Term F...
 
2n SD meeting Sienna Bottom up approach Marwan Haddad
2n SD meeting Sienna Bottom up approach Marwan Haddad2n SD meeting Sienna Bottom up approach Marwan Haddad
2n SD meeting Sienna Bottom up approach Marwan Haddad
 
Farm and Food Care AGM Presentation - Sustainable Development in Ontario Soy
Farm and Food Care AGM Presentation - Sustainable Development in Ontario SoyFarm and Food Care AGM Presentation - Sustainable Development in Ontario Soy
Farm and Food Care AGM Presentation - Sustainable Development in Ontario Soy
 
Climate-smart agriculture in South Asia: Opportunities and constraints in sca...
Climate-smart agriculture in South Asia: Opportunities and constraints in sca...Climate-smart agriculture in South Asia: Opportunities and constraints in sca...
Climate-smart agriculture in South Asia: Opportunities and constraints in sca...
 
WBCSD CSA Workshop - Integrating Climate Resilience in Value Chains: practica...
WBCSD CSA Workshop - Integrating Climate Resilience in Value Chains: practica...WBCSD CSA Workshop - Integrating Climate Resilience in Value Chains: practica...
WBCSD CSA Workshop - Integrating Climate Resilience in Value Chains: practica...
 
COMMUNITY-BASED ADAPTATION (CBA)​
COMMUNITY-BASED ADAPTATION (CBA)​COMMUNITY-BASED ADAPTATION (CBA)​
COMMUNITY-BASED ADAPTATION (CBA)​
 
Weather-information-PPT-SA-19-20Oct.pptx
Weather-information-PPT-SA-19-20Oct.pptxWeather-information-PPT-SA-19-20Oct.pptx
Weather-information-PPT-SA-19-20Oct.pptx
 
Issues of Food Security and Insurance
Issues of Food Security and InsuranceIssues of Food Security and Insurance
Issues of Food Security and Insurance
 
Public–private extension approaches: a case study of the Eastern Cape’s citru...
Public–private extension approaches: a case study of the Eastern Cape’s citru...Public–private extension approaches: a case study of the Eastern Cape’s citru...
Public–private extension approaches: a case study of the Eastern Cape’s citru...
 
The quest for policy and public expenditure opportunities to support implemen...
The quest for policy and public expenditure opportunities to support implemen...The quest for policy and public expenditure opportunities to support implemen...
The quest for policy and public expenditure opportunities to support implemen...
 
Demand-Driven innovation in agriculture: Creating economic opportunity for sm...
Demand-Driven innovation in agriculture: Creating economic opportunity for sm...Demand-Driven innovation in agriculture: Creating economic opportunity for sm...
Demand-Driven innovation in agriculture: Creating economic opportunity for sm...
 
Arbuckle swcs 2016
Arbuckle swcs 2016Arbuckle swcs 2016
Arbuckle swcs 2016
 

Recently uploaded

International+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shop
International+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shopInternational+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shop
International+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shop
laozhuseo02
 
Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of AustraliaSummary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
yasmindemoraes1
 
IPCC Vice Chair Ladislaus Change Central Asia Climate Change Conference 27 Ma...
IPCC Vice Chair Ladislaus Change Central Asia Climate Change Conference 27 Ma...IPCC Vice Chair Ladislaus Change Central Asia Climate Change Conference 27 Ma...
IPCC Vice Chair Ladislaus Change Central Asia Climate Change Conference 27 Ma...
ipcc-media
 
Willie Nelson Net Worth: A Journey Through Music, Movies, and Business Ventures
Willie Nelson Net Worth: A Journey Through Music, Movies, and Business VenturesWillie Nelson Net Worth: A Journey Through Music, Movies, and Business Ventures
Willie Nelson Net Worth: A Journey Through Music, Movies, and Business Ventures
greendigital
 
Q&A with the Experts: The Food Service Playbook
Q&A with the Experts: The Food Service PlaybookQ&A with the Experts: The Food Service Playbook
Q&A with the Experts: The Food Service Playbook
World Resources Institute (WRI)
 
AGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptx
AGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptxAGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptx
AGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptx
BanitaDsouza
 
Prevalence, biochemical and hematological study of diabetic patients
Prevalence, biochemical and hematological study of diabetic patientsPrevalence, biochemical and hematological study of diabetic patients
Prevalence, biochemical and hematological study of diabetic patients
Open Access Research Paper
 
Alert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian Amazon
Alert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian AmazonAlert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian Amazon
Alert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian Amazon
CIFOR-ICRAF
 
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdf
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdfUNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdf
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdf
JulietMogola
 
ppt on beauty of the nature by Palak.pptx
ppt on  beauty of the nature by Palak.pptxppt on  beauty of the nature by Palak.pptx
ppt on beauty of the nature by Palak.pptx
RaniJaiswal16
 
NRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy
NRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation StrategyNRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy
NRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy
Robin Grant
 
Sustainable farming practices in India .pptx
Sustainable farming  practices in India .pptxSustainable farming  practices in India .pptx
Sustainable farming practices in India .pptx
chaitaliambole
 
growbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdf
growbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdfgrowbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdf
growbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdf
yadavakashagra
 
Micro RNA genes and their likely influence in rice (Oryza sativa L.) dynamic ...
Micro RNA genes and their likely influence in rice (Oryza sativa L.) dynamic ...Micro RNA genes and their likely influence in rice (Oryza sativa L.) dynamic ...
Micro RNA genes and their likely influence in rice (Oryza sativa L.) dynamic ...
Open Access Research Paper
 
Navigating the complex landscape of AI governance
Navigating the complex landscape of AI governanceNavigating the complex landscape of AI governance
Navigating the complex landscape of AI governance
Piermenotti Mauro
 
DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving together
DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving togetherDRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving together
DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving together
Robin Grant
 
Presentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdf
Presentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdfPresentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdf
Presentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdf
Innovation and Technology for Development Centre
 
Celebrating World-environment-day-2024.pdf
Celebrating  World-environment-day-2024.pdfCelebrating  World-environment-day-2024.pdf
Celebrating World-environment-day-2024.pdf
rohankumarsinghrore1
 
Daan Park Hydrangea flower season I like it
Daan Park Hydrangea flower season I like itDaan Park Hydrangea flower season I like it
Daan Park Hydrangea flower season I like it
a0966109726
 
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024
punit537210
 

Recently uploaded (20)

International+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shop
International+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shopInternational+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shop
International+e-Commerce+Platform-www.cfye-commerce.shop
 
Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of AustraliaSummary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
Summary of the Climate and Energy Policy of Australia
 
IPCC Vice Chair Ladislaus Change Central Asia Climate Change Conference 27 Ma...
IPCC Vice Chair Ladislaus Change Central Asia Climate Change Conference 27 Ma...IPCC Vice Chair Ladislaus Change Central Asia Climate Change Conference 27 Ma...
IPCC Vice Chair Ladislaus Change Central Asia Climate Change Conference 27 Ma...
 
Willie Nelson Net Worth: A Journey Through Music, Movies, and Business Ventures
Willie Nelson Net Worth: A Journey Through Music, Movies, and Business VenturesWillie Nelson Net Worth: A Journey Through Music, Movies, and Business Ventures
Willie Nelson Net Worth: A Journey Through Music, Movies, and Business Ventures
 
Q&A with the Experts: The Food Service Playbook
Q&A with the Experts: The Food Service PlaybookQ&A with the Experts: The Food Service Playbook
Q&A with the Experts: The Food Service Playbook
 
AGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptx
AGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptxAGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptx
AGRICULTURE Hydrophonic FERTILISER PPT.pptx
 
Prevalence, biochemical and hematological study of diabetic patients
Prevalence, biochemical and hematological study of diabetic patientsPrevalence, biochemical and hematological study of diabetic patients
Prevalence, biochemical and hematological study of diabetic patients
 
Alert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian Amazon
Alert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian AmazonAlert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian Amazon
Alert-driven Community-based Forest monitoring: A case of the Peruvian Amazon
 
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdf
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdfUNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdf
UNDERSTANDING WHAT GREEN WASHING IS!.pdf
 
ppt on beauty of the nature by Palak.pptx
ppt on  beauty of the nature by Palak.pptxppt on  beauty of the nature by Palak.pptx
ppt on beauty of the nature by Palak.pptx
 
NRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy
NRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation StrategyNRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy
NRW Board Paper - DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy
 
Sustainable farming practices in India .pptx
Sustainable farming  practices in India .pptxSustainable farming  practices in India .pptx
Sustainable farming practices in India .pptx
 
growbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdf
growbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdfgrowbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdf
growbilliontrees.com-Trees for Granddaughter (1).pdf
 
Micro RNA genes and their likely influence in rice (Oryza sativa L.) dynamic ...
Micro RNA genes and their likely influence in rice (Oryza sativa L.) dynamic ...Micro RNA genes and their likely influence in rice (Oryza sativa L.) dynamic ...
Micro RNA genes and their likely influence in rice (Oryza sativa L.) dynamic ...
 
Navigating the complex landscape of AI governance
Navigating the complex landscape of AI governanceNavigating the complex landscape of AI governance
Navigating the complex landscape of AI governance
 
DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving together
DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving togetherDRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving together
DRAFT NRW Recreation Strategy - People and Nature thriving together
 
Presentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdf
Presentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdfPresentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdf
Presentación Giulio Quaggiotto-Diálogo improbable .pptx.pdf
 
Celebrating World-environment-day-2024.pdf
Celebrating  World-environment-day-2024.pdfCelebrating  World-environment-day-2024.pdf
Celebrating World-environment-day-2024.pdf
 
Daan Park Hydrangea flower season I like it
Daan Park Hydrangea flower season I like itDaan Park Hydrangea flower season I like it
Daan Park Hydrangea flower season I like it
 
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024
Artificial Reefs by Kuddle Life Foundation - May 2024
 

Nicholson - Feb 2020 USDA Outlook.pptx

  • 1. 1 Adapting Agricultural Planning and Production to Prepare for Extreme Weather Uncertainties Prepared by Stephen P. Nicholson Vice President – RaboReasearch Food & Agribusiness Senior Analyst/Grains and Oilseeds January 2020
  • 2. 2 Since the Beginning of Agriculture Farmers & Ranchers have had to Adapt to Changing Climate Conditions
  • 3. 3 U.S. Corn Yields Over time U.S. corn yield deviation from trend has decreased. Producers have continued to increase productivity in the face of more difficult weather and climate conditions -38 -33 -28 -23 -18 -13 -8 -3 2 7 12 17 22 27 32 37 42 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 Change (Y2) Yield (Y1) Bushels per Acre Bushels per Acre Note: Shaded bar indicate major U.S. droughts
  • 4. 4 Still Struggling over Definitions of Overused Terms Sustainability 1. Capable of bring sustained 2.a of, relating to, or being a method of harvesting or using a resource so that the resource is not depleted of permanently damaged; sustainable techniques, sustainable agriculture b. of or relating to a lifestyle involving the use of sustainable methods, sustainable society Stewardship 1. the office, duties, and obligations of a steward 2. The conducting, supervising, of managing or something especially: the careful and responsible management of something entrusted to one’s care, stewardship of natural resources. Conservation 1: a careful preservation and protection of something especially: planned management of a natural resource to prevent exploitation, destruction, or neglect 2: the preservation of a physical quantity during transformations or reactions Preservation the act, process, or result of preserving something: such as a: the activity or process of keeping something valued alive, intact, or free from damage or decay b: the preparation of food for future use (as by canning, pickling, or freezing) to prevent spoilage Resilience 1: the capability of a strained body to recover its size and shape after deformation caused especially by compressive stress 2: an ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change
  • 5. 5 Multi-Dimensional Issue—Not an Either/Or Proposition • Environmental • Economic • Community and Society
  • 6. 6 Short-term Adjustments by Producers • Cover Crops • Two schools of thought on expansion • Tight geographic footprint • Wide geographic footprint • Tillage practices • No-Till • Minimal-Till • Strip till • Purchasing farmland that drains well • Crop insurance • Rotational grazing
  • 7. 7 Percent of Commodity Acreage with Cover Crops, 2017 Maryland leads the Nation due Chesapeake Bay Restoration Source: Census of Agriculture; Rob Meyers, University of Missouri and NCR-SARE Program; Patterson Clark, Politico Pro DataPoint
  • 8. 8 Growth in Cover Crop Adoption is Lead by the Corn Belts States, 2012-2017 Source: Census of Agriculture; Rob Meyers, University of Missouri and NCR-SARE Program; Patterson Clark, Politico Pro DataPoint
  • 9. 9 Farmers Used Conservation Tillage Methods on Nearly 75% of U.S. cropland in 2017 96.5 76.6 105.7 104.5 97.38 80 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 No-Till Low-Till Conventional Million Acres 2012 2017
  • 10. 10 Long-term Adjustments by Producers Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, Purdue University, Agricultural Sustainability Institute, Patterson Clark, Politico Pro DataPoint
  • 11. 11 Long-term Adjustments by Producers Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, Purdue University, Agricultural Sustainability Institute, Patterson Clark, Politico Pro DataPoint
  • 12. 12 Long-term Adjustments by Producers • Precession agriculture • Managing inputs • Optimize yields • Farmland improvement • Cover Crops • Tiling • Buffer Strips • Terraces • Re-establishment of waterways • Improving Soil Health • Renewable Energy • Solar Panels • Methane Digesters • Repurposing Farmland • Return to Permanent Pasture • Return to natural state—wetlands, timber, e.g. hunting • Diversifying Farming Operation • Integrating livestock with crop production systems • Increasing crop rotations—less mono-culture cropping system • Water Reclamation in Livestock Operations • Minimizing Water Use in Irrigation
  • 13. 13 Concluding Thoughts and Observations • Long-Term Profitability Challenges and Tight Margins for Row-Crop Production • Producers will be stretched to make investment • Investment in sustainability, conversation etc. will need to show positive economic returns. • Support of Grassroots Farm Groups—Peer Conversation • Farmers and ranchers know their weather is changing • Farmers are more concerned about moving forward than assigning blame. • Knowledge and idea exchange • We Need Data • Data is needed to measure progress • What data do we need to collect • How do we collect • What are producers’ conservation practices • Research and Resource Support • Air, water, soil conversation programs; i.e. EQUIP) • Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) • Rural infrastructure, e.g. internet needed to access technology • Continue support of crop insurance • Public/Private collaboration and education • In some cases this is already taking place, e.g. NCRS, food companies, producers • The environment is there to make forward progress • All stakeholders must realize there is a cost
  • 14. 14 Contact Information Stephen P. Nicholson Rabo-AgriFinance Vice President-RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Senior Grains and Oilseed Analyst 14767 N. Outer Road, Suite #400 Chesterfield, MO 63017 U.S.A. 314-317-8278 (office) 314-452-2479 (cell) Stephen.Nicholson@raboag.com
  • 15. 15 Banking & Securities Disclosure This document has been prepared exclusively for your benefit and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure other than to Coöperatieve Rabobank U.A. (“Rabobank”), registered in Amsterdam. Neither this document nor any of its contents may be distributed, reproduced or used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Rabobank. The information in this document reflects prevailing market conditions and our judgement as of this date, all of which may be subject to change. This document is based on public information. The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable, without independent verification. The information and opinions contained in this document are indicative and for discussion purposes only. No rights may be derived from any potential offers, transactions, commercial ideas et cetera contained in this document. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation. This document shall not form the basis of or cannot be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information in this document is not intended and may not be understood as an advice (including without limitation an advice within the meaning of article 1:1 and article 4:23 of the Dutch Financial Supervision Act). This document is governed by Dutch law. The competent court in Amsterdam, The Netherlands has exclusive jurisdiction to settle any dispute which may arise out of or in connection with this document and/or any discussions or negotiations based on it. This report has been published in line with Rabobank’s long-term commitment to international food and agribusiness. It is one of a series of publications undertaken by the global department of Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory. ©2016 - All Rights Reserved.