The document discusses how yield prophet and precision agriculture tools can help farmers in the North Agricultural Region of Western Australia better manage risk and increase productivity by accounting for significant seasonal production volatility and soil variability within fields. It provides examples of how yield prophet has accurately predicted yields when soils are well characterized and highlights the need for experienced operators and thorough soil testing to set up accurate soil zones and variable rate crop management.

1. “Yield Prophet & Precision Agriculture”
“A Suitable Tool For Risk Management &
Increased Productivity In The NAR of WA?”
`
Craig Topham – Agrarian Management – Geraldton WA

2. Where Have We Come From Historically
1. Small machinery, Slow planting speed
2. Small paddocks, often fenced to soil type
3. Labour intensive , multiple pass cropping system
4. Greater intensity of tillage = greater wind / water erosion
5. Greater levels of fuel usage = greater emissions / ha
6. Delayed sowing = lower yields
7. Lower input and Overhead costs – less capital intensive
8. 90’s less seasonal variability – Expectation of Rain

3. 90’s Thought that “No Till” would drought proof farming , low rainfall inputs increased
00’s Realization that Technology was needed to minimise
impact of adverse seasonal conditions
“Adverse Seasonal Conditions Have Always Been An Expected Circumstance
Rather Than An Exceptional Circumstance”
Future Direction
Ability To Allocate Capital
Proportionately
According To Expected Conversion
Into Revenue
Yield Prophet & Zone Management

4. Large Seasonal Production Volatility
5 out of 13 Seasons above average
2 of 13 Average
6 of 13 well below average
Real profit made in 4
out of every 10 years
Key is to minimise losses
in the 60% of
Loss making seasons

5. The Modern NAR Farmer
• Younger, well educated, very computer literate
• Large scale, rapid sowing pace
• No fences, large paddocks, increased soil variation
• Large % dry sown, Increased capital at risk
• Large % of Capital expended at Sowing
• High degree of mechanization, reduced labour
• Highly automated machinery
• High level of precision ( Guidance, Placement, Zone Management, VRT)
• Greater awareness of variability = Soil, Productivity, Profitability = Water holding capacity
• Yield Prophet has increased farmer knowledge of Soil water holding capacity
Intense summer fallows and moisture conservation
Concept of bucket size becoming well understood
Farmer acceptance of modelling tools

6. Experiences From Last 2 Years Involvement with Yield Prophet
Limitations to Adoption
Adoption limited due to lack of understanding by Farmers
Lack of exposure – limited to a few consultants – NAR WA
Exposure largely limited to DAFWA & GRDC project participants
- Farmer awareness / understanding increasing rapidly after exposure
- Enthusiasm directly correlates with accuracy of model
Accuracy in WA diminished by limited data base of locally characterised soil types
Soil testing strategy needs refinement to be adapted to local environment
Experienced advisor required to accurately set up model
Good understanding of sub soil constraints and effects on plant rooting depths required
Nitrogen model very useful, needs tailoring to WA conditions
Experience suggests a general lack of understanding of WA soils & conditions by modellers

7. Yield Profit, Yield Prediction Results 2010
Morawa Poor Soil Fit – Sub Soil Constraints
Three Springs year 2 Well Characterised soil
Accurate Rooting Depth
Results In Accurate Yield Prediction
More Soil Investigation Prior To
Set Up Improves In Season
Yield Prediction

8. Accurate Soil Characterization = Very Accurate Model

9. Provides Ability To Measure, Manage
& Predict Plant Available Water
Probabilities from Historical weather patterns very powerful tool
Increases ability to play and judge the season
Experienced operator required to achieve accuracy
Thorough understanding and assessment of sub soil constraints required
Accurate measurement of plant rooting depth vital
Soil type specific – need greater understanding of within field variation

10. Using Yield Prophet And VRT Zone Management To Reduce Seasonal Risk
Test Strips located over Yield Prophet sites

11. Shallow Roots due to Al Toxicity

12. Deep Rooting depth – No Sub soil Constraint

13. Acid Soils Zone 1 & 2 Zone 3
-Reduced Tillering -Deeper rooting depth
-Less heads / m² -Visual root growth to 1.2m
-Shallow Rooting depth 30 / 40cm -Soil moisture assessable to roots
-Bulge of soil N built up -Greater access to soil nitrogen
- not accessed by roots
-Lower risk soil type
= less yield Variability
Moisture 30 – 40cm
Very high soil N pre sowing
not accessible by plant roots

14. Integration Of Yield Prophet & EM 38 Soil Mapping To Develop VRT Cropping Systems
EM 38 & Gamma Radiometrics used to develop production zones within fields.
Yield Prophet sites located within each soil zone
Soil characterization of each production zone – (PAWC / Zone)
Long Term Yield prediction with Yield Prophet climate change report
Up to 2 T / ha
variation in long
term ave yield within
field, all due to
variation in PAWC

15. Nola Downs 2010 VRT Research Trial Results

16. Nola Downs D1 – Management Zone / Yield
Blue Zone – High Input - High Clay content Sand Burnt off 38 - 50% screenings
Green Zone Standard inputs – Good sand Highest Yield - 30% Screenings
Red Zone – Low inputs – Poor Acid sand - 8.2% Screenings
Low Standard High
23.6N,7.6P,5.9K 34.7N,10.6P,10.7K 45.9N,13.7P,10.7K

17. Zone 3 High Input
Zone 2 Standard Input
Zone 3 Low Input

18. Nola Downs D1 Yield & Change in GM from VRT
Nitrogen and Phosphate Trial
Zone 1 Decreased Yield with Increased inputs
Nola Downs D1 Wheat Yield / Soil zone Zone 2 Yield increase with Standard inputs not significant
2.5
Zone 3 High inputs = Reduced yield (Screening 38 – 50%)
2
Wheat yield (t/ha)
Dry Finish lowest inputs best
23N; 7.6P, 5.9K – finishing rain would be vastly different
1.5
1
34N; 10.6P,8.3K
0.5 GM / Ha (Fert Only) / Soil Zone
45N; 13.77P,10.7K 800
0
1 2 3 700
Soil zone 600
GM (fert only)
500 23N; 7.6P, 5.9K
400
Zone 1 $92 increase in GM by Decreasing inputs 300 34N; 10.6P,8.3K
200
Zone 2 $9 increase in GM by decreasing inputs
100
Screenings 30% more rain would respond to inputs 45N; 13.77P,10.7K
0
Zone 3 Made $15 / Ha by decreasing inputs 1 2 3
Screenings up to 50% - Burnt off
Soil zone

19. Questions