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Sask Poly The Future - a Jig-Saw August 2018

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Presentation to the staff of Sask Polytechnic in Regina and Saskatoon, August 2018

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Sask Poly The Future - a Jig-Saw August 2018

  1. 1. SomeBig Patterns WhichWill Impact Us All… Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FBPsS FRSA
  2. 2. Agenda  A Brief History of the Future – The Big Picture  Developments in Higher Education  Five Big Questions
  3. 3. TheFuture  “The future isn’t what it used to be..” Yogi Berra  “Predictions are very difficult, especially if they are about the future”. Niels Bohr  “The future will be better tomorrow..” Dan Quayle
  4. 4. National Demographics  Canada’s birthrate is below replacement  Ageing population – more seniors than children in school / Increased lifespan.  Dependency ratio shifting from 4:1 to 2:1 by 2036  Indigenous youth growing at a faster rate than the rest of Canada  Immigration needs to double for the economy to continue to grow.
  5. 5. Saskatchewan Demographics  Fertility rates in Saskatchewan are amongst the highest in Canada.  1.17 million people in the Province in 2018 and the Premier says he’d like to get to 1.5million by 2030  Indigenous Peoples and Skilled immigrants key to growth – currently 10.5% (with a significant number of second generation immigrants)  Declining rural population – growing urbanization  Ageing population – over 100 over 100 in Saskatchewan.
  6. 6. GlobalShifts  Global population to reach 9.5 billion by 2050 (or sooner) – major implications for the environment (especially water).  New middle class – 2.2 billion new middle class – mainly in India, Asia and parts of Africa  Economic power shifting from US / Northern Europe to Asia – already 50% of the world’s $1 billion companies are located in Asia.  Worlds major cities – there are 424 major cities generating +50% of world GDP – 325 are in Asia
  7. 7. Environment  More frequent severe weather events  Climate change dynamics  Water supplies for 9.5 billion people fragile  Degradation of oceans  Consumption – the 3 planets problem  Ensuring that 9.5 billion people can be fed
  8. 8. Technology Shifts  Artificial Intelligence  3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing  Stem-Cell Therapies and Gene Splicing  Robotics  Blockchain  Human Implants – Cognitive Implants  Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Science
  9. 9. NewKindsof Organizations  Aggregators – amazon.ca / eBay / Etsy  “Ubers” – Uber, 99Designs  “Pop-Up’s” - Pop up Restaurants, Performance Spaces, Artworks, Maker-Spaces  Uber more dominant future model than the Hierarchical organization
  10. 10. NewFormsof Work  Gig economy now 40% of the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand economies  75% of all jobs advertised in Australia since 2015 have been part-time  Universities and colleges run on their gig workers
  11. 11. Globalization BMW MINI  Supply chains are global – look at the BMW Mini. 300 options for exterior trim - 15,000,000,000,000,000 possible combinations.  Parts delivered to Oxford Just in Time 0 – enough for 1 shift.  3,600 parts in a standard Mini (up to 4,875 in a Mini Cooper S) – from 47 countries. Nespresso  Coffee from 24 countries available Penn State MBA  Professors online from 18 countries
  12. 12. Austerity  US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada) and two emerging markets (China and India) have a $400 trillion retirement savings shortfall that will become growingly evident and at crisis point in 2050.  Total government debt from all governments is currently (June 2018) US$23.9 trillion.  In the US, to deliver current levels of public services (everything from education to health care to pensions) to the projected population in 2030, taxpayers will need to find an additional US$940 billion. In the UK, they’ll need to find another US$170 billion, and in Canada they’ll need to find another US$90 billion.
  13. 13. Inequality  Canada is experiencing growing inequality – our top 100 CEO’s earn the average Canadian wage ($49,510) by 11:47 a.m. on January 3—the first working day of the year.  Fewer than 90 families in Canada hold roughly as much wealth as everyone living in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island collectively owns.  1 in 7 Canadian residents live in poverty and 1.3 million children live in poverty.  UNICEF rated Canada 17thout of 29 wealthy countries due to the number of children living in poverty in Canada and 26th out of 35 wealthy countries for overall child inequality.
  14. 14. 1 8
  15. 15. Identity  iGen experiencing significant identity issues showing in mental health challenges and issues around meaning and purpose – suicide levels are up and mental health issues are significant:  An estimated 1.5 million Canadian children and youth (aged 5-24) are affected by mental health issues  Approximately 6% of young people experience and anxiety disorder serious enough to warrant treatment  Suicide is the second leading cause of death for Canadians between the ages of 10 and 24  Seniors – who are now living longer – are questioning the meaning of their life while experiencing loneliness
  16. 16. KeyDevelopmentsin HigherEducation
  17. 17. Steve’sCurrent TopTen 1. Blended learning is now the norm in F2F teaching 2. Online learning is growing 2-3 times faster than F2F in the developed world 3. MOOC’s are a big deal  81 million people took one/more of 9,400 courses from 850+ colleges and universities in 2017  Growing offer of degrees through MOOCs  Rapid growth of micro-credentials offered via MOOC platforms 4. Micro-Credentials – modular, stackable learning – key to emerging current landscape, especially for skills and trades 5. Growth of assessment only qualifications / degrees
  18. 18. 6. Rapid growth of online program management companies (OPM’s) like 2U, Pearson, Coursera – enabling F2F institutions and others to have high quality, online courses and programs rapidly produced and deployed. 7. Growth of OER based offers – e.g. OUUK – and IBM Watson’s use of OER as the basis of their free offer to school teachers (Teacher Advisor) 8. Predictive analytics increasingly used for recruitment, retention work. 9. Learner mobility as a policy driver – EU and Australia strongly focused on transferability, trans-national qualifications, portability of qualifications. 10. Growth of collaborative programs – partnership based certificates, diplomas and degrees (with other educational institutions or private sector)
  19. 19. Steve’sNext10 1. Assessment as the “new black” – using automated item generation, automated marking systems and ”on demand” assessment to create new ways of recognizing learning – competence, understanding and capability based. 2. Growing use of automated content generation systems – “smart” writing – and AI technologies 3. Significant growth of responsive/ adaptive / automated student advising and support systems. 4. Rich accountability for learning organizations – legally defensible assessment of capabilities will be the “acid” test. 5. Shift from current transcript / student record systems to blockchain based systems.
  20. 20. 6. Explosion of modular, stackable, competency-based learning – learners creating their own programs reflecting their learning needs. 7. Emerging systems of global transferability – an engineer is an engineer. 8. Growth of uber-like learning organizations – e.g. Woolf University (AI and Blockchain enabled) 9. Public: Private Partnerships will spur the growth of work-based accreditation of learning. 10. New forms of accountability for performance of schools, colleges, polytechnics and universities from Government and Industry – the skills agenda
  21. 21. FourScenariosfortheFuture Winners and Losers Winner Takes All A Designed Future Status Quo with Less Open Enclosed Stasis Turbulence
  22. 22. FiveBigQuestions
  23. 23. 5Big Questions  How fast can you as a Polytechnic adapt to fast changing circumstances? How agile are you?  How will you deal with rapid changes in the nature of skills and competencies – technology and population changes will drive it. What looks like a defined trade now may not look the same five years from now – e.g. construction trades.  How good are you at enabling First Nations learners to be outstanding? Similarly, how equipped are you to deal with a significant growth in demand from 1st generation immigrants for competency recognition and learning?  Who do you want to partner with in the world?  How can you strengthen the core notion of being a polytechnic?

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