The document analyzes lead indicators in visa lodgement and grant data for international students, noting a year-on-year growth in visa lodgements by 16.9% and grants by 10.2%. While the higher education and vocational education and training sectors showed significant growth, the schools sector continued to decline. Market trends indicate a shift in origin countries, with a decline in Chinese grants but significant increases from India and Nepal.

1. What are the lead
indicators telling us?
And what do they mean?
Kadi Taylor & Darragh Murray, May 2019

2. Data notes and assumptions
Following assumptions are relevant for this slide pack:
• Visa lodgement and grant data are shown in terms of the end of January of relevant fiscal
year. Therefore, the period of analyses the seven months from July → January of each fiscal
year.
• Year on year growth % is fiscal year on year.
• Except where noted, analyses has been completed in terms of offshore visa grants: primary
and secondary grants.
• Note that the sectors metric in visa data differs substantially from international student
enrolment/commencements and data at this level of granularity from the visa or enrolment
datasets cannot be compared directly.
• Higher education sector in visa data includes pathway ELICOS students.
Sources
• Student visa data (lodgements, grants and grant rates) sourced from the Department of
Home Affairs / Data.gov.au. Data is as at January 31 2019.
• Student enrolment/commencement data sourced from the Department of Education Data is
as at December 31 2018.

3. Visa lodgements are up
Lodgements up by 16.9% YoY.  3.9 percentage points higher than previous fiscal
year. Onshore and offshore lodgements have similarly increased

4. Visa grants also up
Grants up by 10.2% YoY.  3.3 percentage points higher than previous fiscal
year. Like lodgements, onshore and offshore grants have increased, but growth
% in onshore outpaced offshore

5. Digging into offshore student visa grants
Offshore visa grants up 6.4% fiscal year on year  from 4% previous period.
Growth in all sectors except schools. HE up by 7.7%, VET 22% growth

6. Most sectors have grown…except schools
VET has turned around the negative growth seen last fiscal year, up by around 22 percentage
points to 22.1%. Schools decline continues. HE offshore visa grants accelerating

7. Visa Grant Rate Trends
• DHA now publish visa grant rates by state and
sector.
• The data in the following section shows offshore
visa grant rates for primary applicants only.

8. Offshore grant rates
DHA Visa data does indicate offshore visa grant rate may have softened
slightly from 91.2% to 88% this fiscal year
Note: Primary visa holders only

9. Grants rates for most States dropped
Looking at comparative offshore visa grant rates (primary visa holders), all states
except Northern Territory dropped. WA grant rate dropped the most  5.6
percentage points to 81.3%

10. NSW – Offshore primary visa grant rates
NSW grant rate has dropped in all classifications except schools. Generally,
NSW’s grant rate is above the national aggregate
State Sector 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 National 2018-19
HE 95.3% 94.2% 92.8% 94.0%
VET 73.4% 76.1% 70.0% 62.6%
Postgrad Research 97.9% 98.8% 97.8% 97.9%
Schools 90.4% 87.5% 90.6% 90.3%
Non-Award 99.6% 99.8% 99.2% 99.3%
ELICOS 88.6% 85.0% 85.7% 87.6%
NSW Total 91.0% 90.4% 88.7% 88.0%
NSW

11. VIC – Offshore primary grant rates
While all sectors grant rate has decreased in the last fiscal year, Victoria still
outperforms the national aggregate in offshore primary grants by 1.2
percentage points overall
State Sector 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 National 2018-19
HE 97.2% 96.7% 95.2% 94.0%
VET 70.8% 71.2% 58.9% 62.6%
Postgrad Research 97.6% 99.5% 98.6% 97.9%
Schools 88.2% 85.1% 83.5% 90.3%
Non-Award 99.6% 99.7% 99.3% 99.3%
ELICOS 88.6% 86.7% 86.5% 87.6%
VIC Total 93.2% 92.6% 89.2% 88.0%
VIC

12. QLD – Offshore primary grant rates
QLD have increased their grant rates in schools and ELICOS, but there has been
an overall drop in the grant rate this fiscal year by around 5.1 percentage
points. It’s behind the Australian aggregate average in 2018-19
State Sector 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 National 2018-19
HE 95.7% 95.5% 94.9% 94.0%
VET 72.9% 73.2% 60.6% 62.6%
Postgrad Research 97.7% 99.0% 96.8% 97.9%
Schools 94.3% 94.6% 95.0% 90.3%
Non-Award 99.8% 99.7% 99.6% 99.3%
ELICOS 93.6% 89.1% 90.7% 87.6%
QLD Total 91.8% 90.3% 84.9% 88.0%
QLD

13. WA – Offshore primary grant rates
WA grant rate has dropped the most of any state or territory, down around 5.6
percentage points this fiscal year to 81.3%. This is likely to do with poorer VET
grant rates this fiscal year, which are down 20.4 percentage points to 48.4%
State Sector 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 National 2018-19
HE 91.7% 89.7% 88.1% 94.0%
VET 76.3% 68.8% 48.4% 62.6%
Postgrad Research 99.6% 99.2% 99.2% 97.9%
Schools 86.9% 88.3% 89.9% 90.3%
Non-Award 99.1% 99.5% 99.9% 99.3%
ELICOS 89.2% 88.3% 88.9% 87.6%
WA Total 89.2% 86.9% 81.3% 88.0%
WA

14. SA – Offshore primary grant rates
South Australia have increased their primary grant rates in HE, VET, Schools
and ELICOS this fiscal year. The grant rate overall is at 88.8%, above the
national aggregate figure for 2018-19
State Sector 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 National 2018-19
HE 96.6% 95.0% 95.7% 94.0%
VET 66.3% 55.1% 59.8% 62.6%
Postgrad Research 96.7% 100.0% 96.7% 97.9%
Schools 95.7% 90.8% 93.5% 90.3%
Non-Award 99.2% 99.5% 98.6% 99.3%
ELICOS 93.4% 87.1% 91.3% 87.6%
SA Total 93.5% 89.1% 88.8% 88.0%
SA

15. ACT – Offshore primary grant rates
The grant rate for ACT well exceeds the national rate. However, all sectors except
VET decreased in the current fiscal year
State Sector 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 National 2018-19
HE 98.9% 99.4% 98.9% 94.0%
VET 86.5% 84.5% 85.7% 62.6%
Postgrad Research 96.3% 100.0% 98.3% 97.9%
Schools 96.8% 89.9% 81.5% 90.3%
Non-Award 100.0% 100.0% 98.6% 99.3%
ELICOS 73.8% 87.8% 77.4% 87.6%
ACT Total 96.5% 97.3% 95.9% 88.0%
ACT

16. TAS – Offshore primary grant rates
Tasmania increased its grant rate in schools and ELICOS. It has a far higher
grant rate than the national aggregate (94.4% v 88%)
State Sector 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 National 2018-19
HE 96.8% 96.6% 93.9% 94.0%
VET 90.0% 88.9% 83.9% 62.6%
Postgrad Research 97.6% 98.4% 96.4% 97.9%
Schools 98.6% 95.0% 96.8% 90.3%
Non-Award 98.9% 100.0% 98.8% 99.3%
ELICOS 97.1% 87.5% 100.0% 87.6%
TAS Total 97.0% 96.4% 94.4% 88.0%
TAS

17. NT – Offshore primary grant rates
The grant rate for Northern Territory increased in all categories except for non-
award, with noticeable jumps in both VET and schools
State Sector 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 National 2018-19
HE 88.8% 87.7% 88.5% 94.0%
VET 48.9% 50.0% 73.8% 62.6%
Postgrad Research 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 97.9%
Schools 90.9% 62.5% 66.7% 90.3%
Non-Award 100.0% 100.0% 92.3% 99.3%
NT Total 85.8% 91.6% 93.1% 88.0%
NT

18. State trends
• All data in this section refers to offshore
international student visa grant statistics.
• This includes primary and secondary applicants.

19. States and territories growing
Growth in majority of Australian states and territories. WA rebounded from –
8.7% last fiscal year, to 13.2% this fiscal year. However, ACT and NT offshore
visa grants are down

20. New South Wales
Offshore visa grants for New South Wales increased by 5.6% overall fiscal year on
year. Turnaround in VET numbers, which increased 15.3% year on year arresting
downward trend

21. Victoria
Offshore visa grants for Victoria increased by 7.7% overall fiscal year on year.
HE and VET relatively strong growth, but Independent ELICOS  -6.9%

22. Queensland
Offshore visa grants for Queensland increased by 12.6% overall fiscal year on year.
QLD VET numbers have grown significantly over past fiscal year  42.5%

23. Western Australia
Offshore visa grants for Western Australia increased by 13.2% overall fiscal year on
year. WA Higher Education rebounded, up 25.2% year on year. However, VET,
ELICOS 

24. ACT
Offshore visa grants for ACT decreased by 25.2% overall fiscal year on year. Large
decrease in higher ed which dropped -30.7% year no year. All sectors except VET 

25. Tasmania
Offshore visa grants for Tasmania increased by 13.1% overall fiscal year on year. Tasmanian
offshore visa grant performance driven by higher ed/postgraduate research

26. Northern Territory
Offshore visa grants for Northern Territory decreased by -5.2% overall fiscal year on year.
Offshore demand for HE continues to slide in NT (-22.2%). Slight bump for VET

27. Source market trends
• All data in this section refers to offshore
international student visa grant statistics.
• This includes primary and secondary applicants.

28. Market trends – Top 5
Chinese offshore visa grants now declining  -6%. India booming,  40%. Growth
also in Nepalese offshore visa grants, while Brazil grants continue to decline

29. Market trends – 6 through 15
Trends in Top 15 markets show North and South East Asia  and South Asia . Exceptions
Philippines bucking the SE Asia trend and Pakistan flatter. Saudi → Canada?

30. South Asia is growing… fast
• Trends become clear when grouping offshore visa grants by regions
• South Asia – including India, Nepal, Sri Lanka – 26% this fiscal year while
North Asia – China, HK, Japan, South Korea etc – has declined -5%
• South Asia offshore visa grants larger than other regions this fiscal year in terms
of volume and rate of growth
South Asia
North Asia
South East Asia
Latin America
Europe
North America
Middle East
Africa
Oceania
Central Asia

31. Top markets – NSW
Slight decline for China of 0.8%. Strong growth from India. Brazil has dropped
by 26%

32. Top markets – Victoria
China large decline of -9.8%. Again, large growth in India and Nepal. Philippines
huge growth of 157%

33. Top markets – Queensland
China actually grew slightly by 1.7% in QLD. India, Nepal and Spain up. Strong up
swing in growth from Colombia and Philippines

34. Top markets – Western Australia
India is #1 market for WA. Grew significantly this fiscal year – nearly 40%. Nepal,
Bhutan and Pakistan are also growing. China declining alongside Malaysia.

35. Top markets – South Australia
SA’s top 2 markets grew similarly to QLD. China up slightly by 1.5% and India up significantly
– 37%. Again, reoccurring trend with Philippines which is up significantly by 147% (largely
driven by VET grants)

36. Top markets – ACT
ACT not doing as well as the other states. Decline in China -35%. India in decline
here too despite it being up in nearly all states – down -25%. Small growth from
Canada / Saudi Arabia
NB: this may be driven by ANU’s announcement re: not wanting to grow further, but also points to opportunity for other
providers in the territory

37. Top markets – Tasmania
Tasmania on trend with regards to top 2 markets. China down, while India up
significantly 57.7%. Growth in Brazil, Vietnam and Nepal

38. Top markets – Northern Territory
India is the top market for NT, but has dropped significantly since 2016-17.
Philippines has had some growth in NT  64.3%, but signs elsewhere not so
positive.

39. Sector and source market
trends
• All data in this section refers to offshore
international student visa grant statistics.
• Sector trends generally visualised with
reference to the top five markets (latest fiscal
year data) for each sector.
• Sectors excluded from analysis: Postgraduate
Research, Non-award, Defence.

40. Sector Trends – Higher Education
Worryingly, Chinese offshore visa grants for higher education are down 6%.
However, India up by 43% and rapidly catching China in terms of volume. Nepal
flat overall and Sri Lanka 

41. Sector Trends – Independent ELICOS
Brazil offshore visa grants have dropped markedly from 2016-17 peak and are  -18% this
period. Colombia though has increased steadily with rapid growth in this sector

42. Sector Trends – VET
Nepal now the #1 market for VET students in terms of offshore visa grants (growth
of 77%). Philippines huge growth  341% this fiscal year

43. Sector Trends: Schools
The China decline now accelerating in this sector. Some growth in Vietnam and
South Korea

44. Last Visa Held
Grant data allows us to see what visa the current applicant held before being
granted student visa.
This is all visa types (onshore and offshore). Data may indicate increase in
proportion of current grants coming from the pool of existing students. Temporary
graduate now 3% of total visa grant pool (up from 1% previous year).

45. Australian international
education in 2018
A deep dive into commencing
student trends

46. Key messages in the 2018 data
• Enrolments and commencements made both increased in 2018
across in industry but growth rates have slowed compared to
the previous year.
• Higher Ed and VET are the two sectors doing relatively well,
while other sectors are flat.
• China is sluggish in terms of commencements, but markets in
Southern Asia (India, Nepal, Sri Lanka) are doing very well in
most sectors. South East Asia as a block is entering second
year with declining commencements.
• We're seeing some change in preferences: Brazilian students
switching from ELICOS to VET, large increases in students
commencing into IT, Engineering, Health.

47. Data notes and assumptions
Following assumptions are relevant for this slide pack:
• In most cases, unless otherwise specified, the measure used to analyse data is
in terms of international student commencements.
• Commencements are not newly recruited students, rather students who have
commenced a new program during the calendar year.
• In all cases, data is analysed in terms of calendar years, with full year 2018
being the main focus of analysis in this slide deck.
Sources
• Student enrolment/commencement data sourced from the Department of
Education. Dataset used covers up until 31 January 2019, but snapshot is as at
December 31 2018.

48. Enrolments and commencements
Growth in both international enrolments (9.9%) and commencements (6.4%)
in 2018.

49. Growth rate trends
Growth is positive, but the rate of change slowed in 2018 with the rate of change
sloping downward for both international enrolments and commencements.

50. Commencements — Trend by Sector
Higher Ed and VET grew steadily. Flat growth or in decline in other major sectors.

51. Full year commencements by sector
2018 commencement data indicates growth in all sectors except schools.
However, charting historical growth rates indicates that growth in each sector is
slowing.

52. Selected level of study trends
In 2018, there was no question that new students were inclined to postgraduate
coursework studies over UG courses.

53. In 2018, Foundation Studies commencements -3.2%. Large drop in Victoria.
Foundation studies

54. Provider Type trends
Looking closer at the types of providers by commencement numbers, data
indicated growth in both government ( 9%) and non-government ( 4.5%)
sectors.

55. Provider Type trends – Higher Education
However, in HE, non-government providers are seeing declines in
commencements ( -3.9%). Government providers seeing large growth.

56. Provider Type trends – VET
Opposite trend in VET sector, with continued strong growth from NGP overall.
Government providers continue to see declines in commencements in 2018.

57. Provider Type trends – ELICOS
Non government ELICOS provider dominate in terms of volume, though growth
was flat (only 0.9%). Government ELICOS sector was down nearly 4%.

58. Provider Type trends – Schools
Both government and non-government providers saw declining commencements
for schools in 2018.

59. Commencements – Trend by State
Commencements continue to increase in most states and territories with the
exception of WA, where commencements  in 2018 by nearly -6% year on year.

60. Commencements – Market Share 2018
Across all sectors, New South Wales demanded 38.4% of all international
commencements followed by Victoria at 31.4%.

61. Commencements – Market Share Trend
Over long run, market share % of states/territories has been constant. Recent
years  Victorian share while  WA share.

62. Top 10 Markets – All Sectors
China largest supplier of commencements in 2018 although rate of growth =
slowed. India and Nepal, large spikes in growth rate.

63. Top 11-20 Markets – All Sectors
Looking outside the top 10, we see rapid growth from Sri Lanka, the Philippines
and Spain. Hong Kong and Italy commencements in recent years.

64. North Asia provides largest amount of commencements, but growth slowing.
Continued large growth from South and Central Asia (over 30% year on year).
Regional Trends

65. Diversity – All sectors
Across all sectors, China remains number one cohort in terms of proportion of
the cohort with 26.9% of all commencements in 2018. India is now at 12.3%
up from 9.9% the previous year. Nepal also increased proportion by 1.4
percentage pts to 6.2%

66. Top 10 Markets Higher Education (HE)
No surprise that China continues growth in commencements (8%). However
India and Nepalese commencements increasing rapidly. Declines in SE Asia.

67. Top 11-20 Markets HE
Bangladesh, Kenya, South Korea and Taiwan increases in 2018, declines in
Saudi Arabia and Thailand.

68. Diversity – Higher Education
Chinese students still largest cohort in 2018 commencements, but India
grabbed a large share in 2018 – up nearly five percentage points in terms of
proportion.

69. Top 10 Markets VET
The VET sector is dominated by both Indian and Nepalese commencements in
2018. Both seeing large growth. China abruptly flat last year.

70. Top 11-20 Markets VET
In the top 11-20 markets, growth comes from Southern Asia (Pakistan, Sri
Lanka). Vietnamese commencements in VET have dropped significantly in 2018.

71. Diversity – VET
In terms of diversity, China drops a place to third behind Nepal. India remains
number one with 13%. VET Sector arguably more balanced than HE in terms of
diversity.

72. Top 10 Markets ELICOS
China, like HE, is the number one market for ELICOS commencements in 2018.
Brazil, while still number 2, declined by nearly 4% after years of growth.

73. Top 11-20 Markets ELICOS
Malaysian ELICOS numbers continue to grow, albeit slower in 2018 than previous
year. Chile and Mongolia continue growth spurts.

74. Diversity – ELICOS
Like HE, China dominates ELICOS with 29.8% of the cohort. Brazil cohort %
has  from 12% in 2017 to 11.5, while Colombia is  from 8.5% in 2017 to
9.5%

75. Top 10 Markets Schools
China still is the number one source of international school commencements
but dropped by nearly 10% last year. Vietnamese growth  8.4%. Brazil .

76. Top 11-20 Markets Schools
Lots of fluctuation when we look at ranks 11-20. India growth of 23.6%. US:
35.3% and France 25.% (all off low base). Large swing in Swiss international
commencements. Malaysia continues to decline.

77. Diversity – Schools
In terms of proportions, China remains the #1 by share with 44.5% though has
. Vietnamese proportion increased to 13% in 2018. Other markets stable.

78. Field of Education – Higher Education
Explosion in growth into IT in 2018 in terms of international commencements with
growth  41.7%. Creative Arts  9%.

79. Field of Education – VET
In VET, FOE trends differ to HE. Management and Commerce has had a large
increase (nearly 15%). IT also huge relative increase (56%) and Engineering
(47.5%). Creative Arts  28% year on year.

80. Quick look at Feb ‘19 commencements
While DET data for Feb 19 is probably a bit too early to look at health of
international commencements in 2019

81. Quick look at Feb ‘19 commencements
Countries snapshot at end of Feb: China down, Hong Kong down, India, Nepal

82. Further analysis of lead indicators?
If you have any questions on these lead indicators or want
more information, please drop us a line:
• Kadi Taylor – Head, Strategic Engagement and
Government Relations - kadi.taylor@navitas.com
• Darragh Murray – Manager, Strategy and Engagement –
darragh.murray@navitas.com