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ANZAC perspectives: Strategies, leading indicators and busting international education myths in Australia and New Zealand
- 1. Greg Scott –Education New Zealand Rebecca Hall – Austrade Kadi Taylor – Navitas ANZAC perspectives Strategies, leading indicators and busting international education myths in Australia and New Zealand
- 2.
- 3. Purpose of thissession Lag indicators Lead indicators UNESCO tertiary mobile student data Enrolments, commencements Satisfaction reports Visa grants Student search behaviour Provider inquiries/applications
- 4. Purpose of thissession
- 5. New Zealand’s strategyand focus New Zealand’s Strategy is celebrating it’s first birthday and education reform is underway
- 6. Australia has aplethora of strategies to guide international education Shared focus on marketing and promotion, student experience (employability), advocacy and industry alignment
- 7. Global market forinternational ed is shifting “We are in a new period of profound instability in international higher education” Year on year % change in student visas issued by study destination* Data based on Australia – total, NZ – full-fee paying, UK - offshore, non-EU only, Canada – total, US – HE only Sources: Australia Dept of Home Affairs, Canada CIC, NZ Department of Labour (Immigration), UK Home Office, US Institute of International Education. Open Doors Report. * USA visa data not shown as it is not comparable to previous years due to changes in visa policy and processes; alternatively Open Doors new enrolments data is shown
- 8. Aussie and Kiwishare of global student flows There are 4.8 million international students and we collectively attract 8% of them Australia 6.6% market share 3rd destination (maybe 2nd – data lag) International students account for 1 in 50 people in Australia New Zealand 1.1% market share 23rd destination International students account for 1 in 40 people in New Zealand
- 9. What are thelead indicators telling us? Changing market conditions, onshore policy and visa settings have all impacted student flows - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Offshore primary visa grants Higher Education ELICOS Schools VET 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 First-Time Student Visas (FSV) Universities ELICOS VET Schools
- 10. What is themake-up of our student cohorts? The top 5 markets account for 59% and 66% of students in Australia and New Zealand respectively This is what our student enrolments would look like if our cohorts were represented as 100 students | China | India | Nepal | Japan | South Korea | Brazil | Malaysia | Thailand |
- 11. Kiwi First-time StudentVisa trends by market The best lead indicator we have at the moment is visas granted. Both New Zealand and Australia are seeing a flattening in grants and conversion 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 India China USA Japan Brazil Korea Germany Thailand Philippines Viet Nam Top 10 Markets for FSV, all sectors 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
- 12. [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE][CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 China India Nepal Brazil Colombia Vietnam Korea, South Malaysia Philippines USA Top ten markets for primary visa grants by client location (July 2018 - May 2019) Onshore Offshore Aussie Offshore Visa grants by market Australia’s offshore visa grants growth is buoyed by continued growth from India and Nepal, but when overlaid with onshore visa growth there are more onshore pathways than ever in Australia
- 13. [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] - 5,000 10,00015,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Other Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Gold Coast ACT Hobart Newcastle and Lake Macquarie Sunshine Coast Top 10 regions by enrolments, with growth / decline on 2017 2018 2017 Regional lens – Australia Australia has more than 30 regional study destinations and we are focused on ensuring more students experience all that Australia has to offer Regional PSWR extension for bachelor students #gobeyond 2.0 digital campaign in development
- 14. Regional lens –Australia Australia has more than 30 regional study destinations and we are focused on ensuring more students experience all that Australia has to offer Regional PSWR extension for bachelor students #gobeyond 2.0 digital campaign in development - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 Other Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Gold Coast ACT Hobart Newcastle and Lake Macquarie Sunshine Coast Top 10 regions by enrolments in 2018, with sector split ELICOS Higher Education Non-award Schools VET
- 15. Regional lens –New Zealand AKL remains dominant but growth and more capacity in regions 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 Uni PTE ITP Schools ELS Wellington Waikato Otago Rest of SI Rest of NI Canterbury Bay of Plenty Auckland
- 16. Regional lens –New Zealand Regional Partnership Programme PSWR extension outside AKL AKL remains dominant but growth and more capacity in regions -15% +4% +19% +37% -16% +3% -8% -10% - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 Bay of Plenty Canterbury Rest of NI Rest of SI Otago Waikato Wellington Auckland 2018 2017
- 17. Different trends inKiwi and Aussie postgrad space Two different stories in the postgraduate market – significant growth in masters by course work in Australia and continued growth in doctoral programs for New Zealand
- 18. Difficult to comparethe pair – trends in Kiwi and Aussie VET In vocational education and training, its hard to compare the sectors – with different scale, providers and market conditions 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 2016 2017 2018 VET annual enrolments, by level of study Advance Diploma & Associate Degree Diploma Certificate 4 Certificate 1-3 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 2016 2017 2018 ITP/PTE enrolments, by level of study Certificates 1-3 Certificates 4 Certs/Dips 5-7
- 19. - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2013-14 2014-15 2015-162016-17 2017-18 2018-19 485 Temporary graduate visa (FTYD May) Graduate Work Post-Study Work Post study work right trends A key pull factor for international students is the availability of post study work rights. In both Australia and New Zealand policy has been adapted to respond to market needs and based on new global study are leading the world Global Practice in Employability and Work Rights www.ieaa.org.au/research/reports
- 20. Kiwi digital leadindictors ENZ has invested in a digital attraction engine to better match supply and demand
- 21. Aussie digital leadindictors Australia's digital platforms are being refreshed and there is an opportunity to improve – and learn from our counterparts in New Zealand Study in Australia 2018-19 Audience Overview Countries Demographics Search terms
- 22. Comparing digital leadindicators – location Huge thanks to IDP Connect for this data
- 23. Qualitive reflections: what’s the same andwhat’s different – and who’s winning?
- 24. What qualifies meto share these reflections?
- 25. What qualifies meto share these reflections?
- 26. What qualifies meto share these reflections?
- 27. Organising framework –IDP ‘Running People’ + Plus + Tyranny of distance Vibe of the place Government policy approach 2018
- 28. Affordability Auckland perceived as expensive,but elsewhere affordable Fees have been reasonable, but perception Major cities: expensive, but regional locations affordable Fees seen as
- 29. Quality of education Qualityproviders, but few of them Quality student experience Single school qualification – globally marketable Six universities globally ranked Diverse offerings in many different locations
- 30. Safety Stable, welcoming Western democracy Someconcerns after Christchurch shooting and residual from earthquakes Stable, welcoming Western democracy Some concerns around mental health & personal safety
- 31. Graduate employment opportunities Favourablepost study work rights (HE focussed) Perception – few opportunities Favourable post study work rights (HE focussed) Additional incentives for regional study
- 32. Visa requirements Negative impacton the perception of NZ due to delays in visa turnaround times Negative impact in market of Rule 18 changes made by NZQA Lack of transparency around Genuine Temporary Entrant (GTE) in visa rejections Issues with onshore market – transfers and potentially the interplay between tourists and students in a key market
- 33. Tyranny of distance Notthe ANZACs Perception that New Zealand is very far from home Improving air routes will be important Australia slightly closer to key markets, but still perceived as being a long way away
- 34. Vibe of theplace (order changes if we include weather) Canucks + ANZACs Welcoming, relaxed, nature and outdoor experiences Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern – popular and a role model Perception of being a bit small Welcoming, more than one ‘global city’ Great weather Easy going people
- 35. Government policy approach Aussies Canucks Perceivedlack of consultation and coordination Perceived (and real) bias against private education Clear strategy set out Room for improvement, but consults on major changes Viewed as important to economic growth Strategy & Council on International Ed
- 36. Kiwis and Aussieshead to head – who wins
- 37.
- 38. Proportion of internationalstudents in Australian Unis UniSA – 44% UniMelb – 42% ANU – 39% UNSW – 36% UTS – 36% UniSyd – 35% Monash – 35%
- 39. Proportion of internationalstudents in Australian Unis UniSA – 44% UniMelb – 42% ANU – 39% UNSW – 36% UTS – 36% UniSyd – 35% Monash – 35%
- 40. New Zealand classesare full of Chinese students
- 41. New Zealand classesare full of Chinese students - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 Uni Schools VET EL Top 5 markets overall by sector China India Japan Korea Brazil Rest
- 42. NZ is toosmall – there are no big opportunities
- 43. NZ is toosmall – there are no big opportunities
- 44. Thank you For furtherinformation please contact Kadi Taylor – kadi.taylor@navitas.com
Editor's Notes
- #4 Rebecca Its not to go head to head to try and even the score from last months netball. Its not to gloat about how any team and or country is doing it better than the other. Think of this as a joint strategy and reflection session – what's working, what's not, what can we learn from each other. And how do we create a team that competes on the world stage to grow strong and sustainable international education experiences in Australia and New Zealand. Our aspiration today is to deliver a joined up session that doesn’t involve a static presentation from a country perspective – one following the other. We have leveraged an Australian Government project building on UNESCO data, to match tertiary student mobility data flows to interrogate and align data and to offer you a shared ANZAC perspective. Yet this data is 2 years out of date, as we will show you – there are other more up to date datasets we can draw on. We are working to improve data interoperability and this presentation is our first. We are also keen to dispel some myths, particularly in this environment of headlines becoming issues and the way we consume digital media. I know some of you are wondering why this is here- well it’s the first image that comes up on google search in Australia. I had to scroll down 3 stories to get the real one. To do this we will draw on range of data sets ( visa grants, commencements, post study work rights and search behaviour) as directly comparable data for each country. Ultimately, in order for us to respond more quickly in times of change, we are keen to co-create leading indicators for the sector. We can also add much rich insight to the data through better gathering intelligence from the field. And be warned, there is a fair bit of data but we are also trying to show this to you in new ways. A leading indicator is a predictive measurement, for example; the percentage of people wearing hard hats on a building site is a leading safety indicator. A lagging indicator is an output measurement, for example; the number of accidents on a building site is a lagging safety indicator. The difference between the two is a leading indicator can influence change and a lagging indicator can only record what has happened.
- #5 Greg – purpose 2 We are also keen to dispel some myths, particularly in this environment of headlines becoming issues and the way we consume digital media. I know some of you are wondering why this is here- well it’s the first image that comes up on google search in Australia. I had to scroll down 3 stories to get the real one. (Rebecca clarify please) There is animation on this slide so remember to press down again to get the “Busting the myths” picture
- #6 Greg So lets start with strategy. This conference is the first birthday of our International Education Strategy. This has a 12 year horizon through to 2030 but some shorter (1-5 years) and some longer (5-10 year) term priorities and deliverables. It reflects a broader government view of international education with a focus on delivering a broader definition of value to all New Zealanders. Three strands of “Quality Education experience”, Sustainable Growth” and Global Citizenship require new partnerships, new products and new approaches to markets, as well as a focus on internationalisation. New Zealand’s priorities for economic development in our regions and attracting/retaining talent in areas of future skills requirements are a focus of a range of government strategies. Meanwhile, government has commenced the most ambitious education reform agenda in a generation (diagram above). Many of these will impact international education and our place in the world, directly or indirectly.
- #7 Rebecca Contrasting Australia’s strategy environment – it’s a busy space. Australia’s first national international education strategy was said to be in 2015 - and that’s right but cities and states have been strategizing on international education for almost 20 years. It’s a function of the Australian system and our federation- there are benefits and issues. Right now we are focused on how we make the most this investment. Alignment is key and Australia’s efforts under a nation brand will help us do this Our main strategies have a lifecycle up to 2025 and mid cycle evaluation will probably take place in 2019-2020 There are other policies that impact international education –such as migration under the recent population strategy Reducing the migration cap by 15% and incentivising more new migrants to settle outside the big cities where there are jobs and services Reducing the migration ceiling from 190,000 to 160,000 places. Introducing two new regional visas for skilled workers requiring them to live and work in regional Australia for three years before being able to access permanent residence. 23,000 places will be set aside for these regional visas. Introducing new tertiary scholarships to attract Australian and international students to study in regional Australia ($15,000 scholarships will be available to more than 1000 domestic and international students each year). Giving international students studying at regional universities access to an additional year in Australia on a post-study work visa. A range of other impacting policies – where education is not the lead area but we are impacted. I’ll talk more about this later when we come to some of the regional data.
- #8 The sudden rise in nationalism and populism in many countries has implications for higher education https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/world-view/dramatic-instability-international-higher-education We would need to update this to 2018 figures if we want to use Acknowledgements: IDP Australia and https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/world-view/dramatic-instability-international-higher-education Hans de Wit, https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/world-view/dramatic-instability-international-higher-education
- #9 Rebecca As mentioned it was the EGI student flows project, building on UNESCO data that started this conversation. We realised how out of the date the data is and the fact that data can be hard to compare. We know that there are conversations underway in both our countries to focus more on value over volume and not be in a race for market share. We also know given the size of our countries and economies the success of international education is astounding Recent IEAA Broadening Our Horizons project promotes that 1 in 50 people in Australia are international students. We did the same for NZ and its xx. Means on a per capita basis we are really punching above our weight. It also means in both markets we have been looking at issues of Yield Regional dispersal capacity and social license UNESCO 2016, tertiary flows The numbers of internationally mobile students are increasing and destinations diversifying. “Internationally mobile students” typically hold a non-resident visa status (sometimes called a student’s visa) to pursue a tertiary degree (or higher) in the destination country. These individuals are also called “degree-mobile students”, to emphasize the fact that they would be granted a foreign degree, and to distinguish them from “credit-mobile students” on short exchange or study-abroad trips. In 2016, there were over 4.8 million international students, up from 2 million in 2000 (UNESCO, 2018). More than half of these were enrolled in educational programmes in six countries: The United States of America, the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Germany and the Russian Federation. Prominent sending countries of international students include China, India, Germany, South Korea, Nigeria, France, Saudi Arabia and several Central Asian countries (ibid.). The volume of official development assistance flows for scholarships in 2016 stood at USD 1229 million (UNDESA, 2018). This data can be used to monitor SDG commitments on student mobility, by measuring money spent on global scholarships. Studies of internationally mobile students tend to focus on the conditions (push and pull factors) that motivate students to study overseas; but policymakers are also interested in international students because they can become highly skilled immigrants in the future.
- #10 Greg / Rebecca So lets now jump deeper into the data Here we are looking at first time visa held ( in NZ ) offshore primary visa grant ( in Australian) to May 2019 NZ ELS - 39% were student visa holders, 48% on visitor visas and 12% on work visas Independent ELICOS included – note other ELICOS students (Visitor, Working holiday visas) For any Australian in the audience you will know that removing onshore visa holders takes out xx % of applicants Schools sector, with high reliance on China is experiencing declines. Higher education continues to grow with main growth in masters by course work and for first time PG commencements overtaking UG. ELICOS flat lined but we know other ELICOS students as tourists and WHM and VET growth, but really only off the back of two markets – Nepal and India
- #11 Greg Note: The top 5 markets account for 59 in AUS and 66 in NZ CHECK – is this enrolments or commencements and what period? Put simply if onshore international students in each country were represented as 100 enrolments For Australia 29 students from China 11 from india 6 from Nepal 5 from Brazil 4 from Malaysia 3 from South Korea And for New Zealand 32 from China 16 from India 8 from Japan 5 from South Korea 3 from Thailand 3 from Brazil
- #12 Greg To May 2019 India China USA Japan Brazil Korea Germany Thailand Philippines Vietnam
- #13 Rebecca Mystique to add in new overlay with onshore visa numbers Nepal once again the outlier for Australia and also significant growth from Philippines
- #14 Rebecca Lets move to a regional lens now - as mentioned govt policy on population strategy, new campaigns, additional PSWR, focus on destination management and marketing This is Enrolments
- #15 Rebecca Lets move to a regional lens now - as mentioned govt policy on population strategy, new campaigns, additional PSWR, focus on destination management and marketing This is Enrolments
- #16 Greg
- #17 Greg
- #18 Greg Change the colours so they match up Bachelor: Bachelor degree & Bachelor honours Graduate Certificate, Graduate Masters by Coursework HDR: Masters Research, Masters Extended and Doctoral
- #19 Rebecca Is this comparing apples and apples – Can we see Australia split out by public and or private? What % of Australian vet students are from 5 markets ? Rebecca Note the release of the ASQA strategic review of international VET Greg – comment on VET environment and policy changes
- #20 Greg then Rebecca Recent research released at IEAA and led by Brett Berquest shows that both Australia and NZ are at the forefront of work rights and employability initiatives The data will be somewhat affected by the fact that we’ve moved from two PSWV types (open and then followed by employer assisted) to one – being the open. This will see the number of applications decrease as we’ve effectively removed an application category. It’s also reflective of the volume in student visas. If they dip then a year or two later the PSWV numbers will also dip as the pipeline of graduates has decreased.
- #21 Greg
- #22 Rebecca Languages: Almost 80% of visitors have English as their browser default. Spanish accounts for 5% with Chinese and Thai language each 2.5%. Countries: Half of the all the traffic comes from Australia (25%) and the next five countries (26%). Demographics: The majority of the audience (72%) is aged between 18-34. Our audience is slightly more female than male. Key terms: “Scholarships” appear in over 130 of 3,500 different keyword search terms.
- #23 Greg / Rebecca FILTERS: Showing 842,947 users All Institutions, Date: Aug 01, 2018 - Jul 31, 2019, Destination country: New Zealand FILTERS: Showing 2,848,811 users All Institutions, Date: Aug 01, 2018 - Jul 31, 2019, Destination country: Australia ABOUT THIS CHART: Showing where prospective students search from when doing course research. Use this graph to find new opportunities to promote your institution for specific subjects. SOURCE: Hotcourses International websites
- #24 Kadi Thanks very much Greg and Rebecca, I’m sure the audience got a lot out of that tour de force across the various trends in both New Zealand and Australian international education data. I think I’m right in thinking that this is the first time we’ve attempted to compare like for like data from the two destinations and this is tricky – believe me – as a group we’ve had many discussions to iterate on how best to show what’s happening, but the more we can do the better. My job today is to share some qualitive reflections with you all on the state of our respective destinations.
- #25 Kadi There’s four things that qualify me to make these reflections on what happening either side of the Tasman in international education. First, obviously being Australian I know all the important things we’ve invented or can lay claim to and have generously shared with our Kiwi brothers and sisters…
- #26 Kadi Second, thanks to my sister marrying a young New Zealand lad, I now have Kiwi blood relations… thankfully the older one, Mila’s vowels are still sounding normal
- #27 Kadi Third, and seriously, Navitas straddles the ditch with campuses and partnerships on either side of the Tasman. In Australia we have 13 university partnerships that are focussed on international students as well as campuses of SAE Creative Media Institute and the Australian College of Applied Psychology that also deliver to international students, albeit in smaller numbers. Here in Auckland, we have another campus of our SAE Creative Media Institute. And down on the South Island we have partnered with the University of Canterbury for [insert] years through UCIC to deliver pathways to the university, and more recently CCEL English language college has joined the Navitas group. Finally, it is not just my personal reflections that I’ll be sharing today. Greg, Rebecca and I called for and received input from across all the Education New Zealand, Austrade and Navitas global network to feed into this part of the presentation. A number of the colleagues that contributed are here today, so thanks again for your time and insights.
- #28 Kadi All told I received over 10 pages of views and perceptions in relation to a series of questions and we asked people to reflect on both New Zealand and Australia: What is working well / what are the positive policy settings for the destination? What is attractive about the destination? What do agents / students / parents like about the destination? What is detracting from the offer? What don’t agents / students / parents like about the destination? What myth would you bust about international education in that destination? If you could give the government and / or international education providers one piece of advice what would it be? As you can imagine it was a challenge to make sense of all that qualitive ‘data’. But as I dove into the feedback, it became clear to me that there was a familiar framework that I could use to organise most of the views people expressed – that being the IDP ‘Running People’ . All I had to do was just add a couple more and I’d have everything covered. So for the next few slides, I’ll take you on a gallop through the collective wisdom on these qualitive data points: Affordability Quality of education Safety Graduate employment opportunities Visa requirements Tyranny of distance Vibe of the place Government policy approach
- #29 Kadi
- #30 Kadi
- #31 Kadi
- #32 Kadi
- #33 Kadi Affordability
- #34 Kadi Affordability
- #35 Kadi
- #36 Kadi
- #37 Kadi
- #38 Kadi
- #39 Kadi As you can imagine it was a challenge to make sense of all that qualitive ‘data’.
- #40 Kadi But, with thanks to a Department of Education and Training ‘Research Snapshot’ published in November 2018, we can officially bust this myth here today. UniSA – 44% = 17% UniMelb – 42% = 33% ANU – 39% = 31% UNSW – 36% = 26% UTS – 36% = 30% UniSyd – 35% = 35% Monash – 35% 31% REMEMEBER – there’s an animation on this slide so at the end – hit the Enter key to get “BUSTED” to fly up
- #41 Kadi As you can imagine it was a challenge to make sense of all that qualitive ‘data’.
- #42 Kadi But, with thanks to a Department of Education and Training ‘Research Snapshot’ published in November 2018, we can officially bust this myth here today. UniSA – 44% = 17% UniMelb – 42% = 33% ANU – 39% = 31% UNSW – 36% = 26% UTS – 36% = 30% UniSyd – 35% = 35% Monash – 35% 31% REMEMEBER – there’s an animation on this slide so at the end – hit the Enter key to get “BUSTED” to fly up
- #43 Kadi As you can imagine it was a challenge to make sense of all that qualitive ‘data’.
- #44 Kadi But, with thanks to a Department of Education and Training ‘Research Snapshot’ published in November 2018, we can officially bust this myth here today. UniSA – 44% = 17% UniMelb – 42% = 33% ANU – 39% = 31% UNSW – 36% = 26% UTS – 36% = 30% UniSyd – 35% = 35% Monash – 35% 31% REMEMEBER – there’s an animation on this slide so at the end – hit the Enter key to get “BUSTED” to fly up