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COVID-19 Immigration Effects
2018 to August 2022
Working Draft - Key Slides
12,500
25,000
37,500
50,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other
Programs Examined
• Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic (PNP and Federal), Family and Refugees
• TR to Permanent Resident transition
• Asylum Claimants
• Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS),
Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment,
spouses)
• Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other
workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA)
• Study Permits (international students)
• Settlement Services
• Citizenship
• Visitor Visas
2
August 2021 Highlights
• PRs: Admissions Decline from 43,085 in July to 34,000 in August. August Year-over-year change (change from 2020 in parentheses): Economic - PNP 69.8%
(315.8%), Economic - Federal -40.8% (204.7%), Family 12.1% (99.9%), Refugees 14.5% (271.4%)
• Applications: Given time delays in entering application data, am using a six month time lag. Decrease from 29,708 in January to 16,665 in February (time delays greater). February year-over-year change (change from 2020): -63.6% (-67.5%).
• Express Entry and Arrima Invitations to Apply: From August (58 Arrima) to 9,211 (2,211 Arrima) in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2020): 85.4% (-28.9%)
• Web “Immigrate to Canada”: Decline from 440,822 in August (outside Canada) to 402,304 in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2020): -12.6% (-23.0%)
• TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Decline from 16,675 in July (some double counting) to 15,505 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): -49.8% (809.4%)
• Temporary Residents:
• TRs/IMP: Increase from 43,570 in July to 51,475 in August. August year-over-year (change from 2020): Agreements: 21.6% (70.7%), Canadian Interests: 12.0% (223.6%), Other IMP Participants 93.1% (5,275.0%), Not stated 241.7% (955.2%)
• TRs/TFWP: Slight decline, from 12,665 in July (agriculture workers) to 11,790 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): Caregivers 55.3% (52.1%), Agriculture 30.1% (-14.0%) and Other LMIA 175.0% (210.8%).
• Web “Get a work permit”: Decline from 107,155 in August (outside Canada) to 101,633 in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2020): 25.0% (55.4%)
• Students: Increase from 37,005 in July to 127,085 in August (seasonal). August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 29.0% (216.7%)
• Applications: Increase from 65,292 in July to 89,350 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 54.7% (706.3%)
• Web “Get a study permit”: Decrease from 78,468 in August (outside Canada) to 63,675 in September. September Year-over-year change (change from 2020): -25.3% (7.1%)
• Asylum Claimants: Stable from 7,800 in July (half at border) to 7,685 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 424.6% (646.1%)
• Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc) Decreased from 3,677 in July to 3,250 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 4,176.3% (17,955.6%)
• Settlement Services: NEW DATA Seasonal decrease from 143,805 in June to 115,500 in July. July year-over-year (change from 2020): 23.0% (29.1%)
• Web “Find immigrant services near you”: Decrease from 5,543 in August (outside Canada) to 4,832 in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2020): -55.2% (-19.6%). In Canada: -53.1% (8.9%)
• Citizenship: Increase from 28,867 in July to 35,073 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 257.9% (238.3%)
• Applications (awaiting more recent): From 197,472 in 2020 to 232,974 in 2021. Year-over-year change (change from 2019):18.0% (-13.3%)
• “Apply for citizenship”: Decline from 24,790 in August (outside Canada) to 20,372 in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2020): -20.1% (-50.6%). In Canada: -12.5% (3.8%)
• Visitor Visas: Increase from 92,614 in July to 129,500 in August (Ukrainians 40% of total). August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 270.5%
(3,167.7%).
3
Change Across Major Programs
2021 Compared to 2018 Baseline
4
PR Applications
PR Admissions - PNP
PR Admissions - Fed
Asylum Claimants
Temporary Workers IMP
Temporary Workers TFWP
Study Permit Applications
Study Permit Holders
Citizenship Applications
New Citizens
Settlement Services
Visitor Visas
-100% -57.5% -15% 27.5% 70%
-82.4%
-13.2%
-22.5%
-10.3%
27.3%
64.2%
24.1%
34.8%
-44.9%
60.2%
-14.3%
35.5%
Permanent Residents
5
Express Entry & Arrima Invitations—2018-22
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
CEC PNP No Program Federal Skilled Trades QC Arrima
6
PR Applications: Region of Citizenship —2018-22
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
7
Note: Given delays in entering applications in processing systems, the most recent accurate data is December 2021. May 2021 surge
driven by applications from India
Admissions: PRs by Categories—2018-22
12,500
25,000
37,500
50,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other
8
Admissions: PRs Region of Citizenship—2018-22
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
9
Admissions: PRs Canada Total
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees
25.2%
-5.8%
60.2%
-14.3%
271.4%
99.9%
204.7%
315.8%
14.5%
12.1%
-40.8%
69.8%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
10
Admissions: PNP Provinces
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
-150%
0%
150%
300%
450%
600%
Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC
54.2%
-5.2%
-29.9%
8.6%
43.7%
33.3%
547.2%
200.5%
260.9%
248%
99.1%
239.8%
7.9%
36.7%
181.8%
54.2%
93.9%
116.4%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
11
Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year
-100%
125%
350%
575%
800%
India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK
15.5%
-6.2%
105.2%
-12.2%
9.1%
42.2%
-53.7%
4.2%
-48.8%
82.2%
134.3%
437.5%
800%
121.5%
149.3%
380.7%
255.6%
253.8%
161.3%
211%
-41.8%
65.4%
27.5%
19%
-18%
104.6%
11.3%
6.6%
-14.7%
-33.9%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
12
Admissions: Temporary to Permanent Residents
By Program—2018-22
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP
13
Admissions by Province: TRs to PRs
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
-1,250%
0%
1,250%
2,500%
3,750%
5,000%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
204.9%
64.8%
24.6%
236.2%
313.3%
67.5%
205%
749.2%
330.9%
1,471.4%
4,140%
646%
1,488.6%
1,365.2%
-63.4%
-43.6%
0%
7.1%
-66%
82.9%
-18.8%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
14
Admissions: TRs to PRs
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
-300%
0%
300%
600%
900%
1,200%
IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP
136.5%
106.5%
260%
204.5%
792.9%
572.9%
1,027.5%
792%
-52.7%
-14.4%
-53.5%
-52.2%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
15
Asylum Claimants: Of
fi
ce Type 2018-22
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Airport Border Inland
16
Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
-1,000%
0%
1,000%
2,000%
3,000%
4,000%
Airport Border Inland
-54.7%
-56.2%
-50.1%
205.3%
1,498%
3,587.5%
222.5%
521.4%
1,129.2%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
17
Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
-1,000%
0%
1,000%
2,000%
3,000%
4,000%
India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA
-78.4%
37.1%
-8.7%
-67.9%
-62.1%
-23.6%
-93.6%
-23.1%
-5.3%
-67%
233.3%
1,227.3%
1,960%
100%
425%
3,375%
500%
272.7%
1,182.6%
126.7%
300%
630%
255.2%
55.6%
500%
396.4%
900%
355.6%
1,240.9%
209.1%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
18
Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not speci
fi
ed
19
Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest
September Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20
Top 10 Countries by “Immigrate to Canada” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
India USA Nigeria UK UAE Pakistan Philippines Mexico Saudi Arabia Brazil
-53.6%
-18.5%
-4.9%
2%
22.3%
-34.5%
-14.6%
2.2%
-72.2%
-35.4%
-48.6%
-13.6%
-4.6%
-24.9%
25.3%
-6.6%
14.8%
-3.7%
-14.9%
-36.3%
September 2022/21 September 2022/20
20
Temporary Residents
21
IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders—2018-22
17,500
35,000
52,500
70,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Agreements Cdn Interests Other IMP Vulnerable Not Stated Caregivers
Agriculture LMIA 22
IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total
Year to Year Comparison (quarterly)
-80%
-40%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
2019-Q1 2019-Q2 2019-Q3 2019-Q4 2020-Q1 2020-Q2 2020-Q3 2020-Q4 2021-Q1 2021-Q2 2021-Q3 2021-Q4 2022-Q1 2022-Q2
16%
-19.4%
-19.8%
-1%
27.6%
72.3%
5.4%
-13.2%
-19.9%
-7%
39.3%
16.7%
15.8%
6.5%
61.3%
-22.2%
-37.6%
146.6%
54.7%
57.6%
29.8%
-54.4%
-47.5%
2.6%
42.7%
10.6%
30.7%
1.5%
IMP TFWP
23
Temporary Residents by Program Canada
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA
58.8%
13.6%
-26%
27.7%
-17.7%
210.8%
-14%
52.1%
223.6%
70.7%
175%
30.1%
55.3%
12%
21.6%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
24
IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-22
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania
25
IMP by Citizenship
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan
-64.1%
16.1%
-24.1%
-69%
-75.3%
-35.2%
0.7%
-24%
-39.4%
129%
352.2%
116.5%
118.3%
239.4%
203.8%
184.3%
95%
175.8%
91.7%
290.9%
100%
23.6%
22%
111.3%
132.4%
53.1%
-15.5%
56%
-2.2%
6.1%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
26
IMP by Province
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
28.2%
8.2%
16.2%
35.4%
44.3%
27.5%
70.3%
177.8%
245.8%
180.7%
293.7%
230.5%
315%
282.2%
20.6%
6%
28%
34.6%
5.2%
60.4%
21.8%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
27
TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-22
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania
28
TFWP by Citizenship
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-400%
0%
400%
800%
1,200%
1,600%
Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France
95.2%
36.5%
-9.8%
-59.1%
0.5%
40.1%
19.8%
64.7%
0.7%
17.2%
190.5%
113.3%
120%
183.3%
76.9%
171.8%
132.2%
33.2%
-30.2%
0.4%
52.5%
1,500%
83.3%
25.9%
109.1%
344.2%
161.8%
41.7%
28.7%
61.4%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
29
TFWP by Province
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
17.2%
2.8%
9.3%
-2.6%
8%
76.9%
58.9%
101.7%
160.7%
190%
128.6%
18.6%
69.1%
28.8%
175%
169.8%
123.1%
300%
54.1%
60.7%
93.2%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
30
Work Permits—Web Interest
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Canada Asia Americas Europe Oceania Africa Not captured
31
Work Permits—Web Interest
September Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20
Top 10 Countries by “Get a work permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-35%
0%
35%
70%
105%
140%
India USA Mexico UK Australia Pakistan Brazil Philippines UAE Saudi Arabia
110.4%
88.5%
120.6%
-1.4%
74.9%
46.1%
41.5%
76.4%
-22.5%
17.6%
92.1%
68%
23.7%
-24.3%
82.1%
8.4%
29%
60.4%
17.2%
3.5%
September 2022/21 September 2022/20
32
Study Permits
33
Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-22
22,500
45,000
67,500
90,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-2 2022-8
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
34
Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-22
35,000
70,000
105,000
140,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies
35
Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-22
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
36
Study Permit Holders by Citizenship
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year
-175%
0%
175%
350%
525%
700%
India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria
50.9%
29%
18.6%
73.2%
-18.8%
-22.3%
53%
-37.5%
-33.4%
61.4%
633%
204.7%
406.2%
700%
174.7%
194.3%
518.2%
97.7%
-7.7%
257.9%
134%
-16.3%
41.4%
30.7%
87.2%
-6.5%
6%
42.2%
-8.7%
49.8%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
37
Study Permit Holders by Province
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
16.1%
28.6%
13.0%
6.4%
27.3%
45.7%
18.5%
126.5%
291.2%
321.9%
171.1%
228.4%
216.4%
390.0%
13.1%
26.6%
58.8%
26.5%
44.2%
10.7%
13.2%
August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
38
Study Permits—Web Interest
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2020-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not captured
39
Study Permits—Web Interest
September Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20
Top 10 Countries by “Get your study permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-350%
0%
350%
700%
1,050%
1,400%
India USA China Nigeria Brazil PhilippinesColombia Mexico Iran Pakistan
-4.8%
1,235.3%
-42.5%
-48.5%
-18.7%
-38.1%
14.1%
0.6%
-18.4%
-40.7%
-4.8%
1,235.3%
-42.5%
-48.5%
-18.7%
-38.1%
14.1%
0.6%
-18.4%
-40.7%
September 2022/21 September 2022/20
40
Settlement Services
41
Settlement—By Service—2018-22
Pre-Arrival and In Canada Services
68,750
137,500
206,250
275,000
2018-1 2018-4 2018-72018-102019-1 2019-4 2019-72019-102020-1 2020-4 2020-72020-102021-1 2021-4 2021-72021-102022-1 2022-4 2022-7
Pre-Arrival Information & Orientation Needs & Assets Assessment, Referrals Employment Related Services
Information & Orientation Services Community Connections Language Assessment
Language Training Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement
42
Settlement Services
July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
Pre-Arrival Info & Orientation
Needs, Assets & Referrals
Employment Related
Information & Orientation
Community Connections
Language Assessment
Language Training
Resettlement Assistance
Service Delivery Improvement
-400% 0% 400% 800% 1,200% 1,600%
-35.5%
-56.3%
-22.3%
-50.1%
-21.4%
-6.3%
-10.5%
-20.3%
-56.3%
-85.3%
1,544.4%
7.0%
267.9%
32.9%
20.7%
25.6%
40.4%
238.0%
-64.3%
122.6%
8.6%
190.1%
10.9%
16.2%
17.5%
41.8%
171.6%
July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
43
Settlement Services—By Region—2018-22
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
44
Settlement Services by Citizenship
July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
Top 10, 2018 base year
-75%
0%
75%
150%
225%
300%
Syria China India Philippines Iraq Eritrea Iran PakistanAfghanistan Somalia
4.2%
57.7%
-15.9%
-11%
6.3%
-25.6%
-38.4%
-21.8%
-26.2%
-18%
1.3%
286.3%
10.2%
-2.7%
20.2%
-11.8%
1.9%
13.3%
9.2%
-12.2%
4.5%
281.6%
2.8%
-7.1%
11.2%
-9.4%
-4.9%
23.9%
5.1%
-15.3%
July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
45
Settlement Services
July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
-37.5%
-25%
-12.5%
0%
12.5%
25%
37.5%
50%
Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC
-11.8%
-18.5%
-10.9%
-25.7%
-13%
-29.1%
7.5%
34.6%
42.4%
22.2%
0.8%
13.0%
-1.3%
10.9%
16.6%
39.1%
15.2%
3.3%
9.5%
5.4%
5.5%
July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
46
Settlement Services—Web Interest
12,500
25,000
37,500
50,000
2018-11 2019-5 2019-11 2020-5 2020-11 2021-5 2021-11 2022-5
Canada Asia Americas Europe Africa Oceania Not speci
fi
ed
47
Settlement Services—Web Interest
September Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20
Top 10 Countries by “Find immigrant services near you” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-70%
-52.5%
-35%
-17.5%
0%
17.5%
35%
52.5%
70%
India USA Brazil UAE Pakistan Nigeria Mexico UK ColombiaPhilippines
-19.5%
-8.8%
20%
-4.9%
51.2%
-15%
-29.8%
-40.1%
-26.7%
-48.8%
-68.2%
-63.8%
-19.4%
-57%
-34.4%
-51.9%
-50.9%
-67.9%
-45.1%
-63.9%
September 2022/21 September 2022/20
48
Citizenship
49
Citizenship Applications—2018-21
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7
50
New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-22
12,500
25,000
37,500
50,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania
51
Citizenship by Region of Birth
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
-200%
25%
250%
475%
700%
Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France
-30.2%
-46.5%
-55.8%
-22.8%
-27.3%
-42.4%
-49.8%
-52.4%
4.9%
-9.8%
137.3%
585.6%
334.5%
220.2%
474.5%
262.8%
150.7%
155.2%
289.9%
154.4%
680.6%
287.8%
406.9%
-21.5%
451%
218.4%
122.7%
276.4%
211.6%
263.3%
Augus 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
52
Citizenship—Web Interest
Note: Technical anomaly April - December 2019
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Canada Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania Not captured
53
Citizenship—Web Interest
September Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20
Top 10 Countries by “Apply for Citizenship” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
USA India UK Pakistan UAE Nigeria China Brazil Turkey Bangladesh
-17.9%
34.2%
-64.4%
35.2%
5.1%
-40.2%
12.1%
-30.2%
-47.8%
-73.6%
-17.3%
13.3%
-54.9%
35.8%
-4%
-15.8%
1.1%
-15.5%
-38%
-13.6%
September 2022/21 September 2022/20
54
Approved Visitor Visas
55
Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-22
45,000
90,000
135,000
180,000
2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7
Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other
56
Note: Increase in Europe driven by Ukraine, almost totality of Europe
Visitor Visas—By Source Country
August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18
Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year
-2,500%
0%
2,500%
5,000%
7,500%
10,000%
China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia
-77.3%
-73.4%
-87.6%
-78%
-80.3%
-90.5%
-73.6%
-83.9%
-72.4%
-92.7% -100%
637%
136.7%
4,322.7%
960.8%
1,222.7%
9,107.5%
1,802.5%
5,479.7%
1,395.2%
-100%
211%
133.9%
378.2%
70.2%
432.2%
930.9%
62.2%
18.5%
August 2022-21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18
57
Note: The most dramatic impact is the number of visas issued to Ukrainians under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel. As the visa
data only includes the top 30 countries, some countries fall off some months (e.g., Russia)
Research Questions
58
• Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries
were most a
ff
ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries
recovered more quickly?
• Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source
country?
• Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or
tensions with China a factor?
• Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for
which countries?
Annex
59
Top Countries Share of Total (2018)
10 Countries 25 Countries
Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7%
IMP 70.8% 86.4%
TFWP 85.2% 93.2%
Study Permits 70.3% 73.8%
Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4%
Citizenship 50.3% 71.5%
60
Top Countries (2018)
Permanent
Residents
IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship
India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647
Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486
China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037
Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718
Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406
USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398
Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229
France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115
Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951
UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915
Saudi
Arabia
2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836
61
Data Sources
• PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions of
Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries
• TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration
Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category,
Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent
Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category
• Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O
ffi
ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship (2019 ranking),
Claim O
ffi
ce Type and Claim Year
• TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s)
became e
ff
ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year
in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s)
became e
ff
ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective
• Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Canada - Study permit holders by
province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e
ff
ective, Source Countries - Applications Processed by IRCC for
New Study Permit Applications
• Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table
• Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month
• Web: Provided by IRCC
• 2018 is used as baseline
62

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Covid-19 Immigration Effects - Key Slides - August 2022

  • 1. COVID-19 Immigration Effects 2018 to August 2022 Working Draft - Key Slides 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other
  • 2. Programs Examined • Permanent Residents/Immigrants (PRs): Economic (PNP and Federal), Family and Refugees • TR to Permanent Resident transition • Asylum Claimants • Temporary Residents/International Mobility Program (IMP): International Agreements (e.g., NAFTA, GATS), Canadian Interests (e.g., intra-corporate transfers, work exchange programs, post-graduate employment, spouses) • Temporary Residents/Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP): caregivers, agriculture workers, other workers with Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) • Study Permits (international students) • Settlement Services • Citizenship • Visitor Visas 2
  • 3. August 2021 Highlights • PRs: Admissions Decline from 43,085 in July to 34,000 in August. August Year-over-year change (change from 2020 in parentheses): Economic - PNP 69.8% (315.8%), Economic - Federal -40.8% (204.7%), Family 12.1% (99.9%), Refugees 14.5% (271.4%) • Applications: Given time delays in entering application data, am using a six month time lag. Decrease from 29,708 in January to 16,665 in February (time delays greater). February year-over-year change (change from 2020): -63.6% (-67.5%). • Express Entry and Arrima Invitations to Apply: From August (58 Arrima) to 9,211 (2,211 Arrima) in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2020): 85.4% (-28.9%) • Web “Immigrate to Canada”: Decline from 440,822 in August (outside Canada) to 402,304 in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2020): -12.6% (-23.0%) • TR to PRs transition (i.e., those already in Canada): Decline from 16,675 in July (some double counting) to 15,505 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): -49.8% (809.4%) • Temporary Residents: • TRs/IMP: Increase from 43,570 in July to 51,475 in August. August year-over-year (change from 2020): Agreements: 21.6% (70.7%), Canadian Interests: 12.0% (223.6%), Other IMP Participants 93.1% (5,275.0%), Not stated 241.7% (955.2%) • TRs/TFWP: Slight decline, from 12,665 in July (agriculture workers) to 11,790 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): Caregivers 55.3% (52.1%), Agriculture 30.1% (-14.0%) and Other LMIA 175.0% (210.8%). • Web “Get a work permit”: Decline from 107,155 in August (outside Canada) to 101,633 in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2020): 25.0% (55.4%) • Students: Increase from 37,005 in July to 127,085 in August (seasonal). August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 29.0% (216.7%) • Applications: Increase from 65,292 in July to 89,350 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 54.7% (706.3%) • Web “Get a study permit”: Decrease from 78,468 in August (outside Canada) to 63,675 in September. September Year-over-year change (change from 2020): -25.3% (7.1%) • Asylum Claimants: Stable from 7,800 in July (half at border) to 7,685 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 424.6% (646.1%) • Irregular arrivals (Roxham Road etc) Decreased from 3,677 in July to 3,250 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 4,176.3% (17,955.6%) • Settlement Services: NEW DATA Seasonal decrease from 143,805 in June to 115,500 in July. July year-over-year (change from 2020): 23.0% (29.1%) • Web “Find immigrant services near you”: Decrease from 5,543 in August (outside Canada) to 4,832 in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2020): -55.2% (-19.6%). In Canada: -53.1% (8.9%) • Citizenship: Increase from 28,867 in July to 35,073 in August. August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 257.9% (238.3%) • Applications (awaiting more recent): From 197,472 in 2020 to 232,974 in 2021. Year-over-year change (change from 2019):18.0% (-13.3%) • “Apply for citizenship”: Decline from 24,790 in August (outside Canada) to 20,372 in September. September year-over-year change (change from 2020): -20.1% (-50.6%). In Canada: -12.5% (3.8%) • Visitor Visas: Increase from 92,614 in July to 129,500 in August (Ukrainians 40% of total). August year-over-year change (change from 2020): 270.5% (3,167.7%). 3
  • 4. Change Across Major Programs 2021 Compared to 2018 Baseline 4 PR Applications PR Admissions - PNP PR Admissions - Fed Asylum Claimants Temporary Workers IMP Temporary Workers TFWP Study Permit Applications Study Permit Holders Citizenship Applications New Citizens Settlement Services Visitor Visas -100% -57.5% -15% 27.5% 70% -82.4% -13.2% -22.5% -10.3% 27.3% 64.2% 24.1% 34.8% -44.9% 60.2% -14.3% 35.5%
  • 6. Express Entry & Arrima Invitations—2018-22 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 CEC PNP No Program Federal Skilled Trades QC Arrima 6
  • 7. PR Applications: Region of Citizenship —2018-22 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 7 Note: Given delays in entering applications in processing systems, the most recent accurate data is December 2021. May 2021 surge driven by applications from India
  • 8. Admissions: PRs by Categories—2018-22 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees Other 8
  • 9. Admissions: PRs Region of Citizenship—2018-22 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 9
  • 10. Admissions: PRs Canada Total August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Economic - PNP Economic - Fed Family Refugees 25.2% -5.8% 60.2% -14.3% 271.4% 99.9% 204.7% 315.8% 14.5% 12.1% -40.8% 69.8% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 10
  • 11. Admissions: PNP Provinces August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -150% 0% 150% 300% 450% 600% Atlantic ON MB SK AB BC 54.2% -5.2% -29.9% 8.6% 43.7% 33.3% 547.2% 200.5% 260.9% 248% 99.1% 239.8% 7.9% 36.7% 181.8% 54.2% 93.9% 116.4% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 11
  • 12. Admissions: Permanent Residents by Citizenship August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries — Ordered by 2018 base year -100% 125% 350% 575% 800% India Philippines China Syria Nigeria USA Pakistan France Eritrea UK 15.5% -6.2% 105.2% -12.2% 9.1% 42.2% -53.7% 4.2% -48.8% 82.2% 134.3% 437.5% 800% 121.5% 149.3% 380.7% 255.6% 253.8% 161.3% 211% -41.8% 65.4% 27.5% 19% -18% 104.6% 11.3% 6.6% -14.7% -33.9% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 12
  • 13. Admissions: Temporary to Permanent Residents By Program—2018-22 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 13
  • 14. Admissions by Province: TRs to PRs August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -1,250% 0% 1,250% 2,500% 3,750% 5,000% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 204.9% 64.8% 24.6% 236.2% 313.3% 67.5% 205% 749.2% 330.9% 1,471.4% 4,140% 646% 1,488.6% 1,365.2% -63.4% -43.6% 0% 7.1% -66% 82.9% -18.8% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 14
  • 15. Admissions: TRs to PRs August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -300% 0% 300% 600% 900% 1,200% IMP Post-Graduate WP Students TFWP 136.5% 106.5% 260% 204.5% 792.9% 572.9% 1,027.5% 792% -52.7% -14.4% -53.5% -52.2% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 15
  • 16. Asylum Claimants: Of fi ce Type 2018-22 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Airport Border Inland 16
  • 17. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -1,000% 0% 1,000% 2,000% 3,000% 4,000% Airport Border Inland -54.7% -56.2% -50.1% 205.3% 1,498% 3,587.5% 222.5% 521.4% 1,129.2% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 17
  • 18. Asylum Claimants: Year-over-year August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -1,000% 0% 1,000% 2,000% 3,000% 4,000% India Mexico Iran Nigeria Colombia Pakistan China Turkey Haiti USA -78.4% 37.1% -8.7% -67.9% -62.1% -23.6% -93.6% -23.1% -5.3% -67% 233.3% 1,227.3% 1,960% 100% 425% 3,375% 500% 272.7% 1,182.6% 126.7% 300% 630% 255.2% 55.6% 500% 396.4% 900% 355.6% 1,240.9% 209.1% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 18
  • 19. Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest 250,000 500,000 750,000 1,000,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not speci fi ed 19
  • 20. Immigrate to Canada—Web Interest September Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Immigrate to Canada” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% India USA Nigeria UK UAE Pakistan Philippines Mexico Saudi Arabia Brazil -53.6% -18.5% -4.9% 2% 22.3% -34.5% -14.6% 2.2% -72.2% -35.4% -48.6% -13.6% -4.6% -24.9% 25.3% -6.6% 14.8% -3.7% -14.9% -36.3% September 2022/21 September 2022/20 20
  • 22. IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders—2018-22 17,500 35,000 52,500 70,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Agreements Cdn Interests Other IMP Vulnerable Not Stated Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 22
  • 23. IMP & TFWP Work Permit Holders Total Year to Year Comparison (quarterly) -80% -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 2019-Q1 2019-Q2 2019-Q3 2019-Q4 2020-Q1 2020-Q2 2020-Q3 2020-Q4 2021-Q1 2021-Q2 2021-Q3 2021-Q4 2022-Q1 2022-Q2 16% -19.4% -19.8% -1% 27.6% 72.3% 5.4% -13.2% -19.9% -7% 39.3% 16.7% 15.8% 6.5% 61.3% -22.2% -37.6% 146.6% 54.7% 57.6% 29.8% -54.4% -47.5% 2.6% 42.7% 10.6% 30.7% 1.5% IMP TFWP 23
  • 24. Temporary Residents by Program Canada August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2022/18 -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Agreements Canadian Interests Caregivers Agriculture LMIA 58.8% 13.6% -26% 27.7% -17.7% 210.8% -14% 52.1% 223.6% 70.7% 175% 30.1% 55.3% 12% 21.6% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 24
  • 25. IMP by Region of Citizenship—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Europe Americas Africa Oceania 25
  • 26. IMP by Citizenship August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% India USA France China UK Australia Ireland Korea Brazil Japan -64.1% 16.1% -24.1% -69% -75.3% -35.2% 0.7% -24% -39.4% 129% 352.2% 116.5% 118.3% 239.4% 203.8% 184.3% 95% 175.8% 91.7% 290.9% 100% 23.6% 22% 111.3% 132.4% 53.1% -15.5% 56% -2.2% 6.1% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 26
  • 27. IMP by Province August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 28.2% 8.2% 16.2% 35.4% 44.3% 27.5% 70.3% 177.8% 245.8% 180.7% 293.7% 230.5% 315% 282.2% 20.6% 6% 28% 34.6% 5.2% 60.4% 21.8% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 27
  • 28. TFWP by Region of Citizenship—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania 28
  • 29. TFWP by Citizenship August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -400% 0% 400% 800% 1,200% 1,600% Mexico Jamaica Guatemala Philippines India Korea USA UK China France 95.2% 36.5% -9.8% -59.1% 0.5% 40.1% 19.8% 64.7% 0.7% 17.2% 190.5% 113.3% 120% 183.3% 76.9% 171.8% 132.2% 33.2% -30.2% 0.4% 52.5% 1,500% 83.3% 25.9% 109.1% 344.2% 161.8% 41.7% 28.7% 61.4% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 29
  • 30. TFWP by Province August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 17.2% 2.8% 9.3% -2.6% 8% 76.9% 58.9% 101.7% 160.7% 190% 128.6% 18.6% 69.1% 28.8% 175% 169.8% 123.1% 300% 54.1% 60.7% 93.2% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 30
  • 31. Work Permits—Web Interest 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Canada Asia Americas Europe Oceania Africa Not captured 31
  • 32. Work Permits—Web Interest September Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Get a work permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -35% 0% 35% 70% 105% 140% India USA Mexico UK Australia Pakistan Brazil Philippines UAE Saudi Arabia 110.4% 88.5% 120.6% -1.4% 74.9% 46.1% 41.5% 76.4% -22.5% 17.6% 92.1% 68% 23.7% -24.3% 82.1% 8.4% 29% 60.4% 17.2% 3.5% September 2022/21 September 2022/20 32
  • 34. Study Permit Applications—By Region—2018-22 22,500 45,000 67,500 90,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-2 2022-8 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 34
  • 35. Study Permit Holders—By Level—2018-22 35,000 70,000 105,000 140,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Secondary or less Post Secondary Other Studies 35
  • 36. Study Permit Holders—By Region—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 36
  • 37. Study Permit Holders by Citizenship August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries — Ordered by Number of Permits, 2018 base year -175% 0% 175% 350% 525% 700% India China Korea France Vietnam Brazil Iran Japan USA Nigeria 50.9% 29% 18.6% 73.2% -18.8% -22.3% 53% -37.5% -33.4% 61.4% 633% 204.7% 406.2% 700% 174.7% 194.3% 518.2% 97.7% -7.7% 257.9% 134% -16.3% 41.4% 30.7% 87.2% -6.5% 6% 42.2% -8.7% 49.8% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 37
  • 38. Study Permit Holders by Province August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC 16.1% 28.6% 13.0% 6.4% 27.3% 45.7% 18.5% 126.5% 291.2% 321.9% 171.1% 228.4% 216.4% 390.0% 13.1% 26.6% 58.8% 26.5% 44.2% 10.7% 13.2% August 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 38
  • 39. Study Permits—Web Interest 40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2020-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Canada Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Not captured 39
  • 40. Study Permits—Web Interest September Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Get your study permit” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -350% 0% 350% 700% 1,050% 1,400% India USA China Nigeria Brazil PhilippinesColombia Mexico Iran Pakistan -4.8% 1,235.3% -42.5% -48.5% -18.7% -38.1% 14.1% 0.6% -18.4% -40.7% -4.8% 1,235.3% -42.5% -48.5% -18.7% -38.1% 14.1% 0.6% -18.4% -40.7% September 2022/21 September 2022/20 40
  • 42. Settlement—By Service—2018-22 Pre-Arrival and In Canada Services 68,750 137,500 206,250 275,000 2018-1 2018-4 2018-72018-102019-1 2019-4 2019-72019-102020-1 2020-4 2020-72020-102021-1 2021-4 2021-72021-102022-1 2022-4 2022-7 Pre-Arrival Information & Orientation Needs & Assets Assessment, Referrals Employment Related Services Information & Orientation Services Community Connections Language Assessment Language Training Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement 42
  • 43. Settlement Services July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Pre-Arrival Info & Orientation Needs, Assets & Referrals Employment Related Information & Orientation Community Connections Language Assessment Language Training Resettlement Assistance Service Delivery Improvement -400% 0% 400% 800% 1,200% 1,600% -35.5% -56.3% -22.3% -50.1% -21.4% -6.3% -10.5% -20.3% -56.3% -85.3% 1,544.4% 7.0% 267.9% 32.9% 20.7% 25.6% 40.4% 238.0% -64.3% 122.6% 8.6% 190.1% 10.9% 16.2% 17.5% 41.8% 171.6% July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 43
  • 44. Settlement Services—By Region—2018-22 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 44
  • 45. Settlement Services by Citizenship July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10, 2018 base year -75% 0% 75% 150% 225% 300% Syria China India Philippines Iraq Eritrea Iran PakistanAfghanistan Somalia 4.2% 57.7% -15.9% -11% 6.3% -25.6% -38.4% -21.8% -26.2% -18% 1.3% 286.3% 10.2% -2.7% 20.2% -11.8% 1.9% 13.3% 9.2% -12.2% 4.5% 281.6% 2.8% -7.1% 11.2% -9.4% -4.9% 23.9% 5.1% -15.3% July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 45
  • 46. Settlement Services July Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -37.5% -25% -12.5% 0% 12.5% 25% 37.5% 50% Atlantic QC ON MB SK AB BC -11.8% -18.5% -10.9% -25.7% -13% -29.1% 7.5% 34.6% 42.4% 22.2% 0.8% 13.0% -1.3% 10.9% 16.6% 39.1% 15.2% 3.3% 9.5% 5.4% 5.5% July 2022/21 July 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 46
  • 47. Settlement Services—Web Interest 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-11 2019-5 2019-11 2020-5 2020-11 2021-5 2021-11 2022-5 Canada Asia Americas Europe Africa Oceania Not speci fi ed 47
  • 48. Settlement Services—Web Interest September Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Find immigrant services near you” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -70% -52.5% -35% -17.5% 0% 17.5% 35% 52.5% 70% India USA Brazil UAE Pakistan Nigeria Mexico UK ColombiaPhilippines -19.5% -8.8% 20% -4.9% 51.2% -15% -29.8% -40.1% -26.7% -48.8% -68.2% -63.8% -19.4% -57% -34.4% -51.9% -50.9% -67.9% -45.1% -63.9% September 2022/21 September 2022/20 48
  • 51. New Citizens—By Region of Birth—2018-22 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Africa Americas Europe Oceania 51
  • 52. Citizenship by Region of Birth August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 -200% 25% 250% 475% 700% Philippines India Iran China Pakistan Nigeria USA Egypt Iraq France -30.2% -46.5% -55.8% -22.8% -27.3% -42.4% -49.8% -52.4% 4.9% -9.8% 137.3% 585.6% 334.5% 220.2% 474.5% 262.8% 150.7% 155.2% 289.9% 154.4% 680.6% 287.8% 406.9% -21.5% 451% 218.4% 122.7% 276.4% 211.6% 263.3% Augus 2022/21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 52
  • 53. Citizenship—Web Interest Note: Technical anomaly April - December 2019 45,000 90,000 135,000 180,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Canada Americas Asia Europe Africa Oceania Not captured 53
  • 54. Citizenship—Web Interest September Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20 Top 10 Countries by “Apply for Citizenship” ordered by site visits, 2018 base year -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% USA India UK Pakistan UAE Nigeria China Brazil Turkey Bangladesh -17.9% 34.2% -64.4% 35.2% 5.1% -40.2% 12.1% -30.2% -47.8% -73.6% -17.3% 13.3% -54.9% 35.8% -4% -15.8% 1.1% -15.5% -38% -13.6% September 2022/21 September 2022/20 54
  • 56. Visitor Visas—By Source Country—2018-22 45,000 90,000 135,000 180,000 2018-1 2018-7 2019-1 2019-7 2020-1 2020-7 2021-1 2021-7 2022-1 2022-7 Asia Americas Africa Europe Oceania Other 56 Note: Increase in Europe driven by Ukraine, almost totality of Europe
  • 57. Visitor Visas—By Source Country August Comparison: 2022/21, 2022/20, Full year 2021/18 Top 10 Countries—Ordered by 2018 base year -2,500% 0% 2,500% 5,000% 7,500% 10,000% China India Philippines Iran Brazil Vietnam Colombia Algeria Pakistan Russia -77.3% -73.4% -87.6% -78% -80.3% -90.5% -73.6% -83.9% -72.4% -92.7% -100% 637% 136.7% 4,322.7% 960.8% 1,222.7% 9,107.5% 1,802.5% 5,479.7% 1,395.2% -100% 211% 133.9% 378.2% 70.2% 432.2% 930.9% 62.2% 18.5% August 2022-21 August 2022/20 Full year 2021/18 57 Note: The most dramatic impact is the number of visas issued to Ukrainians under the Canada-Ukraine authorization for emergency travel. As the visa data only includes the top 30 countries, some countries fall off some months (e.g., Russia)
  • 58. Research Questions 58 • Which programs contracted most quickly and which source countries were most a ff ected? Similarly, which programs and source countries recovered more quickly? • Did application success rates vary pre and post-COVID by source country? • Were exogenous factors such as US immigration restrictions or tensions with China a factor? • Did interest in immigrating to Canada increase or decrease and for which countries?
  • 60. Top Countries Share of Total (2018) 10 Countries 25 Countries Permanent Residents 60.9% 77.7% IMP 70.8% 86.4% TFWP 85.2% 93.2% Study Permits 70.3% 73.8% Asylum Claimants 57.4% 77.4% Citizenship 50.3% 71.5% 60
  • 61. Top Countries (2018) Permanent Residents IMP TFWP Students Settlement Citizenship India 69,980 India 55,610 Mexico 28,860 India 107,105 Syria 15,530 Philippines 19,647 Philippines 35,050 USA 26,540 Jamaica 10,200 China 85,100 Eritrea 11,865 India 19,486 China 29,710 Finland 23,445 Guatemala 9,810 Korea 16,875 Congo 11,355 Iran 10,037 Syria 12,045 China 21,910 Philippines 8,750 Vietnam 12,370 Somalia 10,785 PRC 9,718 Nigeria 10,920 UK 11,205 India 7,380 Iran 7,040 Afghanistan 9,550 Pakistan 9,406 USA 10,905 Australia 8,850 Korea 1,960 Japan 6,685 India 9,035 Nigeria 4,398 Pakistan 9,490 Ireland 8,675 USA 1,850 Bangladesh 4,155 Pakistan 8,360 USA 4,229 France 6,175 Korea 8,105 UK 940 Philippines 4,075 Korea of 7,775 Egypt 4,115 Eritrea 5,695 Brazil 8,080 China 935 Taiwan 3,160 Mexico 7,640 Iraq 3,951 UK 5,660 Japan 7,250 France 915 Saudi Arabia 2,870 Philippines 6,995 France 3,836 61
  • 62. Data Sources • PRs: Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada - Admissions of Permanent Residents by Country of Citizenship, COVID Immigration Impact - PR Applications Source Countries • TR to Permanent Resident transition: Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Post-graduate Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior International Mobility Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Study Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category, Canada – Admissions of Permanent Residents with Prior Temporary Foreign Worker Program Work Permit Holder Status by Province/Territory of Intended Destination and Immigration Category • Asylum Claimants: Canada - Asylum Claimants by Claim O ffi ce Type, Province/Territory* of Claim and Claim Year, Canada - Asylum Claimants by Top Twenty-Five Countries of Citizenship (2019 ranking), Claim O ffi ce Type and Claim Year • TRs: Canada - International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada - Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) work permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, program and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada – International Mobility Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada – Temporary Foreign Worker Program work permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective • Study Permits: Canada - Study permit holders by country of citizenship and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Canada - Study permit holders by province/territory of intended destination, study level and year in which permit(s) became e ff ective, Source Countries - Applications Processed by IRCC for New Study Permit Applications • Settlement Services: Special request IRCC data table • Citizenship: Source Countries (Country of Birth) - New Canadian Citizens (in Persons) by Month • Web: Provided by IRCC • 2018 is used as baseline 62