The EX-Ante Carbon-Balance Tool (EX-ACT) is presented, including its role in quantifying greenhouse gas emissions and sinks from agriculture, forestry and other land use projects. EX-ACT allows users to build "business as usual" and "with project" scenarios to determine a project's carbon balance. Examples show EX-ACT being used to analyze projects in Tanzania, Madagascar and rice production in Madagascar. The tool follows IPCC methodology and can help identify most effective mitigation activities.

1. EX-ANTE CARBON –BALANCE TOOL (EX-ACT)
PRESENTATION OF THE TOOL AND SOME APPLICATIONS
FAO EX-ACT Team
Bockel (FAO), Bernoux (IRD), Grewer (FAO), Schiettecatte (FAO), Zing(FAO)
EX-ACT Training • FAO/CCAFS Conference • 12 November 2014

2. Outline
Presentation of the tool
Role of the tool
Why using EX-ACT?
The structure and logic of the tool
Outputs
 EX-ACT Applications
Worldwide visibility
Some examples in diverse countries
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application

3. I.Introduction of the EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT)
EX-ACT Training Workshop

4. What is exactly EX-ACT?
An Excel based tool to quantify the amount of GHGs released or sequestered from activities in the AFOLOU sector
EX-ACT leads policy officers & project designers to elaborate different development scenarios for the AFOLOU sector:
A “business-as-usual” scenario -> in absence of any intervention
A “policy/project scenario” -> strengthening targeted & sustainable development
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application

5. Building development scenarios
Two alternative scenarios are specified over time
For a set of variables concerning land use and management practices
Time (years)
Implementation phase
With project
Without project
Capitalization phase
Difference used to compute the final C balance in tons CO2 equivalent
Variable considered (ha of land use, number of cattle heads,…)
x0
x1
x2
3 different dynamics of change
(adoption) of practices
Benefits of the project
OLU
Land-use change
Deforestation
OLU
Af/Re-forestation
OLU
OLU
Other LUC
Forest degradation
Annual crops
Management practices
Rice
Grassland
Livestock Production
Inputs
Other investments
Perennial
crops
Organic Soils Mgmt

6. -Different areas of land uses and land use changes in ha
-Management practices (residue burning, improved agronomic practice, nutrient management, organic management, tillage management)
-Quantities of inputs used
-For livestock, evolution of herd
- Energy consumption
- Investments in infrastructure
Activities foreseen
… that may impact on mitigation (GHG reduction/releases)
What is the current situation ?
What would happen in the future if the project is not implemented ?
What is expected in the future if the project is implemented ?
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
A first look at main data needs

7. The structure and the logic of EX-ACT
Project activities (identification of expected land use and practices changes)
Project Description
Carbon balance
Climate
Continent
Soil
Duration
Deforestation
Afforestation and Reforestation
Forest degradation
Non forest land use change
Annual crops
Perennial crops
Irrigated rice
Grasslands
Exploitation of organic soils
Livestock
Inputs
Other investments
Matrix (Synthesis of land use and land use changes)
-Describe vegetation/animals/inputs concerned
-Describe main management practices
-Area concerned
EXCEL File
-Start situation
-Future without project
-Future with project
INPUTS NEEDED
Tier 1: IPCC coefficients
Tier 2 : ad-hoc
Land-based system
Mainly IPCC methodology 2006

8. Dynamics of change
The implementation phase defines in EX-ACT the period from start to finalization of an activity
Any activity may be implemented with a different pace over time
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Absolute Change (x1-x0)
t0
t1
“Immediate”
“Linear”
“Exponential”
t0
t1
t0
t1
Time (years)
Default option
in Tier 1
3 different dynamics of change (adoption) of practice

9. Main logic of EX-ACT
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Takes into account activities
that impact GHG fluxes (emissions and sinks)
Deforestation, A-Re/forestation, forest degradation, Restoration of grasslands, livestock, cultivation of annual crops, cultivation of perennial crops, fertilization of crops, installation of building, installation of irrigation systems...
CO2, CH4, N2O
from and to different pools
above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, soil, litter and dead wood
EMISSIONS 
STOCKS 
Positive result : There are more emissions 
Negative result: There are less emissions 
MITIGATION !
Carbon balance in t of eq-CO2

10. The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
The Gross Results of a specific scenario are defined as the overall impact from all GHGs expressed in CO2 equivalents that were emitted or sequestered due to its implementation. The Carbon-Balance is defined as the marginal difference in Gross Results between the project scenario and the business-as-usual scenario.

11. Gross results
• Emissions: 100 000 t 30 000 t
• Sequestration: -20 000 t -50 000 t
Component of Gross fluxes
the project Without With Balance
All GHG in tCO2eq
Positive = source / negative = sink
Land Use Changes
Deforestation 70,000 25,000 -45,000
Afforestation -10,000 -20,000 -10,000
Other 0 0 0
Agriculture
Annual 10,000 -5,000 -15,000
Perennial -10,000 -15,000 -5,000
Rice 0 0 0
Grassland & Livestocks
Grassland 0 0 0
Livestock 15,000 5,000 -10,000
Degradation 5,000 -10,000 -15,000
Inputs & Investments 0 0 0
Total 80,000 -20,000 -100,000

12. Gross results
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
30
-50
-20
100
-20
80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Emissions
Sequestration
TOTAL
t CO2-eq
with
without
+
=

13. The Carbon balance
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Component of Gross fluxes Gross fluxes
the project Balance
Without With
tCO2eq tCO2eq
Land Use Changes
Deforestation 70,000 25,000 -45,000
Afforestation -10,000 -20,000 -10,000
Other 0 0 0
Agriculture
Annual 10,000 -5,000 -15,000
Perennial -10,000 -15,000 -5,000
Rice 0 0 0
Grassland & Livestocks
Grassland 0 0 0
Livestock 15,000 5,000 -10,000
Degradation 5,000 -10,000 -15,000
Inputs & Investments 0 0 0
Total 80,000 -20,000 -100,000
_
=

14. The Carbon balance
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
-20
80
-100
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
with
without
C balance
t CO2-eq

15. The methodology behind the tool
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application

16. The methodology behind the tool
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Other Coefficients

17. Results utilization
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Identification of project & policy components with specific benefits for GHG mitigation
In combination with cost data: Specification of marginal abatement cost curves that identify the most cost-effective mitigation measures
Application for funding from climate change facilities

18. II.Selected Applications of EX-ACT
EX-ACT Training Workshop

19. Current use of the tool: Examples of EX-ACT appraisals
The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application

20. The EX-Ante Carbon balance Tool (EX-ACT): Logic and Application
Current use of the tool: Examples of EX-ACT trainings

21. One tool, several potentials
SOME EXAMPLES FROM DIVERSE COUNTRIES
Food security and agriculture intensification project
Tanzania
Putting forward :
-Importance of realistic adoption rates
- Externalities of projects

22. SOME EXAMPLES FROM DIVERSE COUNTRIES
Objective: Increase agricultural production and productivity Targets: 2.5 millions rice and maize farmers 3 main project activities: - improved agronomic practices (improved seeds) - improved nutrient management - stop of burning crop residues Duration of carbon balance appraisal: 7+13 years
t CO2-e
Maize
Irrigation
Irrigated rice
Inputs
Total
Carbon balance
-12.616.561
235
2.607.667
4.187.055
-5.821.604
Carbon balance ha-1
-5,5
Carbon balance ha-1 y-1
-0,28
t CO2-e
Maize
Irrigation
Irrigated rice
Inputs
Total
Carbon blance (CB)
-8.353.397
235
2.607.667
4.187.055
-1.558.440
Carbon balance ha-1
-1,5
Carbon balance ha-1 y-1
-0,07
Accelerated Food Security Project in the United Republic of Tanzania
Scenario 1: Very high adoption rates
Scenario 2: Moderately high adoption rates
29% 29% conventionnelimproved 1: agronomic+nutrient+no tillage+noburningImproved 2 : nutrient+no burningImproved 3: nutrient

23. One tool, several potentials
SOME EXAMPLES FROM DIVERSE COUNTRIES
Watershed Development Project
Madagascar
Putting forward :
- The mitigation benefits of healthy watersheds
- The role of the Carbon market
- Potential to generate environmental employment

24. SOME EXAMPLES FROM DIVERSE COUNTRIES
Objective: Establishing irrigated agriculture & promoting forested watersheds Duration of carbon balance appraisal: 10+10 years
T Eq- CO2
Reducing deforestation
Forestation
Agroforestry
Annual crops
Rice crops
Restoring grasslands
Inputs
Land use change
Other investments
Total
Carbon balance
-628907
-989278
-183225
-277879
-48612
-146396
91148
-188444
1463
-2370130
Carbon Balance.ha-1
-21.0
Carbon Balance.an-1.ha-1
-1.05
Carbon price
constant
price
US$/ton
Total public
value
million US$
Project NPV million US$
Internal
IRR
Without value
9.1
14.7%
valued at
3.5
8.3
11.6
15.8%
2010 → 2020
from 2 to 10
20.4
13.9
16.5%
2010 → 2020
from 2 to 20
38.7
17.8
17.7%
At low carbon price of US$ 3.5
Annual Equiv
Carbon value per ha
US$ 3.7
Carbon value per farmer
US$ 14
Equiv Carbon financial rent per village
US$ 1400
Equiv carbon financial rent per watershed
US$ 104 000
Potential employment generation in the area of Paid Environmental Services (PES) through regular monetary inflows from carbon payments
Irrigation and watershed management programme in Madagascar
Project Carbon Balance
Role of Carbon Payments

25. One tool, several potentials
SOME EXAMPLES FROM DIVERSE COUNTRIES
Rice value chain analysis
Rice in Madagascar
Putting forward :
-Importance of adapted rice management practices

26. SOME EXAMPLES FROM DIVERSE COUNTRIES
Current annual emissions: 12.9 Million tons of CO2eq
4.8 kg of CO2eq per kg of paddy
7.2 kg of CO2eq per kg of rice
Methane production of aquatic rice (67%)
Deforestation effect (29%)
Persistence of hilly S&B rice (tavy)
Rice production in Madagascar
Towards an Upgrading scenario for 2003-2020
The upgraded scenario will allow to fix 5.6 million tons of CO2eq/year between 2003-2020
-Contuniously flooding rice management -Laissez aller policy letting S&B increase by 3.1%/year
-Switch of 300000 ha to intermitted flooding and non flooded preseason - improved organic amendment - Stop any increase of S&B rice - Net increase of fertilizers used
=> 45% due to ↘CH4 (from continuously to intermitted flooding) => 54% linked with reduction of deforestation due to tavy

27. One tool, several potentials
APPLICATIONS OF THE EX-ACT TOOL
Watershed Development
Food Security and Sustainable Intensification
Forest Management Projects
 www.fao.org/tc/exact
Sustainable Land Management
Conservation Projects
Land Rehabilitation

28. Thank you!
•Website: www.fao.org/tc/exact
•E-mail: EX-ACT@fao.org
•EX-ACT team:
–Martial Bernoux, martial.bernoux@ird.fr
–Louis Bockel, louis.bockel@fao.org
–Uwe Grewer, uwe.grewer@fao.org

29. 24/06/2010
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