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How much inventory do you really need??
Target setting 2.0
Prof.dr. Bram Desmet
bram_desmet@solventure.eu
+32.497.58.28.60
be.linkedin.com/pub/bram-desmet/1/788/823/
@bram_desmet
My name is Bram …
• Business
– 1998 - 2003: IT manager, Arcelor-Mittal, Gent (Sidmar)
– 2003 - …: Consultant Strategy – SupplyChain – Operations, MÖBIUS
– 2009 - …: Managing Director, Solventure, S&OP software and software based services
– Sector experience: aftermarket, chemical/pharma, consumer goods, discrete/high-tech,
metals, retail, recycling, SME's (+50 companies)
• Academic
– 1998, Master in Mathematics, Gent University
– 2002-2004, Executive MBA, Vlerick Business School
– 2006-2009, PhD in Operations Research, Gent, Multi-Echelon Inventory Optimization
– 2010-…, Adjunct Professor at the Vlerick Business School, Supply Chain and Operations
• Contact info
– bram_desmet@solventure.eu, +32.497.58.28.60
– be.linkedin.com/pub/bram-desmet/1/788/823/
– @bram_desmet
How much inventory do
we really need??
Company 2: strong in
inventory turns but
out of balance
Company 3: better
balanced but did not
recover to pre-crisis levels
Company 1: better
balanced & good
rebound after crisis
STRENGTH
BALANCE
RESILIENCE
e.g. reduce cost by
sourcing in far East
e.g. increase market
share by extending
product portfolio
e.g. reduce inventory
by lowering safety
stocks
Focus/incentives in a
typical production
company …
Resulting pressure in
the triangle
Aligning the triangle
is about maximizing
ROCE
Top-line
EBIT
ROCE
Market leaders are
‘extremely disciplined
and focused’ on 1 of 3
strategic options
Treacy & Wiersema,
1995
Operational Excellence Product Leadership Customer Intimacy
• ‘Best price’ and/or
• ‘Best access’ (‘fast, easy,
painless’)
• ‘Best product’ • ‘Best service’ and/or
• ‘Best connectivity’
(‘relationship
orientation’)
• Efficiency through
process thinking
• Zero-defect service
• Best product through
continuous product
innovation
• Clear innovation strategy:
where to place the bets?
• Understanding the
broader problem
• Having expertise about
the customer’s business
• Customers carefully
selected
• The operations
department drives the
company
• Attention is paid to
process speed and quality
• R&D is key: idea
management
• Marketing is also key:
educate people with a
missionary zeal
• Get engineers, designers,
and marketers
systematically together
• Demonstrate expertise
and experience
• Strengthen the
relationship
• Build loyalty: focus on
customer retention
Product Leadership
highest cost in R&D, marketing, supply chain
Customer intimacy
the extra mile comes at an extra cost
Operational Excellence
cost leader in every fibre of the organization
service
inventory cost
Higher
turns
Lower
cost
Higher
service
Product Leadership
highest complexity, highest risk
Customer intimacy
controlled complexity
Operational Excellence
simplicity drives efficiency
service
inventory cost
Higher
turns
Lower
cost
Higher
service
Product Leadership
emotion beyond functional service
Customer intimacy
an extra mile for a premium
Operational Excellence
excel in the basics
service
inventory cost
Higher
turns
Lower cost
(excl.COGS)
Higher service
As measured by
Gross Margin
Product Leadership
highest risk with highest potential payoff
Customer intimacy
an extra mile at an extra cost and premium
Operational Excellence
excel in cost and the service basics
service
inventory cost
Higher
turns
Higher service
As measured by
Gross Margin
Lower cost
(R&D + SG&A)
Product Leader
Product
Leader
Indirect cost 32-33%
gross margin 42-43%
EBIT of 10%
Indirect cost 32-33%
gross margin 39-41%
EBIT of 7-8%
Product Leader
Indirect cost around 32-33%
For a gross margin 42-43%
EBIT of 10%
Product Leader
Turns of 3 for an Indirect cost
around 32-33%
For a gross margin 42-43%
EBIT of 10%
Notice Company 3:
Indirect cost around 18-19%
For a gross margin 35%
EBIT of 16-17%
… because of underspending!
service
inventory cost
Higher
turns
Higher service
As measured by
Gross Margin
10%
20%
30%
42%
3
6
9 16%
24%
32%
Lower cost
(R&D + SG&A)
Example Benchmark for Technology Companies
Product Leader
EBIT of 10%
Cost Leader
Cost
Leader
Indirect cost 22-27%
gross margin 25-30%
EBIT of 3%
Indirect cost 23-25%
gross margin 21-23%
EBIT of -2% to 0%
Cost/Opex Leader
Indirect cost 22-27%
gross margin 25-30%
EBIT of 3%
Opex/Cost Leader
Turns of 6-8 for …
an indirect cost 22-27%
gross margin 25-30%
EBIT of 3%
Product Leader
Turns of 3 for an Indirect cost
around 32-33%
For a gross margin 42-43%
EBIT of 10%
Product Leader
tGrossProfi-1
urnsInventoryTEBIT%
NetSales
sCostofGood
urnsInventoryTEBIT%
urnsInventoryT
sCostofGood
NetSalesEBIT%
Inventory$
EBIT ⋅
=
⋅
=
⋅
=
52,0
%421
3%10
Inventory$
EBIT
=
−
⋅
=
Opex/Cost Leader
Turns of 6-8 for …
an indirect cost 22-27%
gross margin 25-30%
EBIT of 3%
29,0
%271
7%3
Inventory$
EBIT
=
−
⋅
=
Opex/Cost Leader
>>
Product Leader
Turns of 3 for an Indirect cost
around 32-33%
For a gross margin 42-43%
EBIT of 10%
Opex/Cost Leader
Turns of 6-8 for …
an indirect cost 22-27%
gross margin 25-30%
EBIT of 3%
Product Leader
tGrossProfi-1
urnsInventoryTEBIT%
NetSales
sCostofGood
urnsInventoryTEBIT%
urnsInventoryT
sCostofGood
NetSalesEBIT%
Inventory$
EBIT ⋅
=
⋅
=
⋅
=
52,0
%421
3%10
Inventory$
EBIT
=
−
⋅
= 29,0
%271
7%3
Inventory$
EBIT
=
−
⋅
=
Opex/Cost Leader
= 51,0
%301
9%4
Inventory$
EBIT
=
−
⋅
=
Opex/Cost Leader
Turns of 9 for …
an indirect cost 26%
gross margin 30%
EBIT of 4%
Product Leader
Turns of 3 for an Indirect cost
around 32-33%
For a gross margin 42-43%
EBIT of 10%
Product Leader
tGrossProfi-1
urnsInventoryTEBIT%
NetSales
sCostofGood
urnsInventoryTEBIT%
urnsInventoryT
sCostofGood
NetSalesEBIT%
Inventory$
EBIT ⋅
=
⋅
=
⋅
=
52,0
%421
3%10
Inventory$
EBIT
=
−
⋅
=
Opex/Cost Leader
51,0
%301
9%4
Inventory$
EBIT
=
−
⋅
=
Opex/Cost Leader
Turns of 9 for …
an indirect cost 26%
gross margin 30%
EBIT of 4%
49,0
%361
5,4%7
Inventory$
EBIT
=
−
⋅
=
Customer Intimacy
Leader
Turns of 4,5 for …
an indirect cost 29%
gross margin 36%
EBIT of 7%
service
Higher
turns
Higher service
As measured by
Gross Margin
30%
36%
42%
3
4,5
9 26%
29%
32%
Lower cost
(R&D + SG&A)
Example Benchmark for Technology Companies
Product Leader
EBIT of 10%
EBIT/Inventory$ = 0,5
Opex/Cost Leader
EBIT of 4%
EBIT/Inventory$ = 0,5
Customer Intimacy
EBIT of 7%
EBIT/Inventory$ = 0,5
Product Leader
Turns of 3 for an Indirect cost
around 32%
For a gross margin 42%
EBIT of 10%
Opex/Cost Leader
Turns of 9 for …
an indirect cost 26%
gross margin 30%
EBIT of 4%
Customer Intimacy
Leader
Turns of 4,5 for …
an indirect cost 29%
gross margin 36%
EBIT of 7%
Product Leader
Turns of 3 for an Indirect cost
around 32%
For a gross margin 42%
EBIT of 10%
Opex/Cost Leader
Turns of 9 for …
an indirect cost 26%
gross margin 30%
EBIT of 4%
Customer Intimacy Leader
Turns of 4,5 for …
an indirect cost 29%
gross margin 36%
EBIT of 7%
service
inventory cost
Higher
turns
Higher service
As measured by
Gross Margin
30%
36%
42%
3
4,5
9 26%
29%
32%
Lower cost
(R&D + SG&A)
Benchmarking Approach
1. Analyse gross
margin of different
competitors
3. Analyse Inventory
Performance for Product
/ Customer / Cost
2. Analyse R&D + SG&A
expenses of different
competitors
4. Balance the targets by
ensuring the same
EBIT/Inventory$ performance
Gross Margin SG&A R&D Strat
High High High Product
Medium High Low Customer
Low Low Low Cost
• Don’t benchmark in 1 dimension, but in
multiple dimension
• Make sure to look at Service, Cost and Cash
aspects (the Supply Chain Triangle)
• Different strategies lead to different targets
• Always define targets for a combined set of
metrics
• All strategies should enable a comparable
ROCE
Thank You!!
Prof.dr. Bram Desmet
bram_desmet@solventure.eu
+32.497.58.28.60
be.linkedin.com/pub/bram-desmet/1/788/823/
@bram_desmet

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ISC europe 2016 - how much inventory do you really need? Inventory Target Setting 2.0

  • 1. How much inventory do you really need?? Target setting 2.0 Prof.dr. Bram Desmet bram_desmet@solventure.eu +32.497.58.28.60 be.linkedin.com/pub/bram-desmet/1/788/823/ @bram_desmet
  • 2. My name is Bram … • Business – 1998 - 2003: IT manager, Arcelor-Mittal, Gent (Sidmar) – 2003 - …: Consultant Strategy – SupplyChain – Operations, MÖBIUS – 2009 - …: Managing Director, Solventure, S&OP software and software based services – Sector experience: aftermarket, chemical/pharma, consumer goods, discrete/high-tech, metals, retail, recycling, SME's (+50 companies) • Academic – 1998, Master in Mathematics, Gent University – 2002-2004, Executive MBA, Vlerick Business School – 2006-2009, PhD in Operations Research, Gent, Multi-Echelon Inventory Optimization – 2010-…, Adjunct Professor at the Vlerick Business School, Supply Chain and Operations • Contact info – bram_desmet@solventure.eu, +32.497.58.28.60 – be.linkedin.com/pub/bram-desmet/1/788/823/ – @bram_desmet
  • 3. How much inventory do we really need??
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. Company 2: strong in inventory turns but out of balance Company 3: better balanced but did not recover to pre-crisis levels Company 1: better balanced & good rebound after crisis
  • 10.
  • 11. e.g. reduce cost by sourcing in far East
  • 12. e.g. increase market share by extending product portfolio
  • 13. e.g. reduce inventory by lowering safety stocks
  • 14. Focus/incentives in a typical production company …
  • 16. Aligning the triangle is about maximizing ROCE Top-line EBIT ROCE
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. Market leaders are ‘extremely disciplined and focused’ on 1 of 3 strategic options Treacy & Wiersema, 1995 Operational Excellence Product Leadership Customer Intimacy • ‘Best price’ and/or • ‘Best access’ (‘fast, easy, painless’) • ‘Best product’ • ‘Best service’ and/or • ‘Best connectivity’ (‘relationship orientation’) • Efficiency through process thinking • Zero-defect service • Best product through continuous product innovation • Clear innovation strategy: where to place the bets? • Understanding the broader problem • Having expertise about the customer’s business • Customers carefully selected • The operations department drives the company • Attention is paid to process speed and quality • R&D is key: idea management • Marketing is also key: educate people with a missionary zeal • Get engineers, designers, and marketers systematically together • Demonstrate expertise and experience • Strengthen the relationship • Build loyalty: focus on customer retention
  • 21. Product Leadership highest cost in R&D, marketing, supply chain Customer intimacy the extra mile comes at an extra cost Operational Excellence cost leader in every fibre of the organization service inventory cost Higher turns Lower cost Higher service
  • 22. Product Leadership highest complexity, highest risk Customer intimacy controlled complexity Operational Excellence simplicity drives efficiency service inventory cost Higher turns Lower cost Higher service
  • 23. Product Leadership emotion beyond functional service Customer intimacy an extra mile for a premium Operational Excellence excel in the basics service inventory cost Higher turns Lower cost (excl.COGS) Higher service As measured by Gross Margin
  • 24. Product Leadership highest risk with highest potential payoff Customer intimacy an extra mile at an extra cost and premium Operational Excellence excel in cost and the service basics service inventory cost Higher turns Higher service As measured by Gross Margin Lower cost (R&D + SG&A)
  • 27. Indirect cost 32-33% gross margin 42-43% EBIT of 10%
  • 28. Indirect cost 32-33% gross margin 39-41% EBIT of 7-8%
  • 29. Product Leader Indirect cost around 32-33% For a gross margin 42-43% EBIT of 10%
  • 30. Product Leader Turns of 3 for an Indirect cost around 32-33% For a gross margin 42-43% EBIT of 10%
  • 31. Notice Company 3: Indirect cost around 18-19% For a gross margin 35% EBIT of 16-17% … because of underspending!
  • 32. service inventory cost Higher turns Higher service As measured by Gross Margin 10% 20% 30% 42% 3 6 9 16% 24% 32% Lower cost (R&D + SG&A) Example Benchmark for Technology Companies Product Leader EBIT of 10%
  • 35. Indirect cost 22-27% gross margin 25-30% EBIT of 3%
  • 36. Indirect cost 23-25% gross margin 21-23% EBIT of -2% to 0%
  • 37. Cost/Opex Leader Indirect cost 22-27% gross margin 25-30% EBIT of 3%
  • 38. Opex/Cost Leader Turns of 6-8 for … an indirect cost 22-27% gross margin 25-30% EBIT of 3%
  • 39. Product Leader Turns of 3 for an Indirect cost around 32-33% For a gross margin 42-43% EBIT of 10% Product Leader tGrossProfi-1 urnsInventoryTEBIT% NetSales sCostofGood urnsInventoryTEBIT% urnsInventoryT sCostofGood NetSalesEBIT% Inventory$ EBIT ⋅ = ⋅ = ⋅ = 52,0 %421 3%10 Inventory$ EBIT = − ⋅ = Opex/Cost Leader Turns of 6-8 for … an indirect cost 22-27% gross margin 25-30% EBIT of 3% 29,0 %271 7%3 Inventory$ EBIT = − ⋅ = Opex/Cost Leader >>
  • 40. Product Leader Turns of 3 for an Indirect cost around 32-33% For a gross margin 42-43% EBIT of 10% Opex/Cost Leader Turns of 6-8 for … an indirect cost 22-27% gross margin 25-30% EBIT of 3% Product Leader tGrossProfi-1 urnsInventoryTEBIT% NetSales sCostofGood urnsInventoryTEBIT% urnsInventoryT sCostofGood NetSalesEBIT% Inventory$ EBIT ⋅ = ⋅ = ⋅ = 52,0 %421 3%10 Inventory$ EBIT = − ⋅ = 29,0 %271 7%3 Inventory$ EBIT = − ⋅ = Opex/Cost Leader = 51,0 %301 9%4 Inventory$ EBIT = − ⋅ = Opex/Cost Leader Turns of 9 for … an indirect cost 26% gross margin 30% EBIT of 4%
  • 41. Product Leader Turns of 3 for an Indirect cost around 32-33% For a gross margin 42-43% EBIT of 10% Product Leader tGrossProfi-1 urnsInventoryTEBIT% NetSales sCostofGood urnsInventoryTEBIT% urnsInventoryT sCostofGood NetSalesEBIT% Inventory$ EBIT ⋅ = ⋅ = ⋅ = 52,0 %421 3%10 Inventory$ EBIT = − ⋅ = Opex/Cost Leader 51,0 %301 9%4 Inventory$ EBIT = − ⋅ = Opex/Cost Leader Turns of 9 for … an indirect cost 26% gross margin 30% EBIT of 4% 49,0 %361 5,4%7 Inventory$ EBIT = − ⋅ = Customer Intimacy Leader Turns of 4,5 for … an indirect cost 29% gross margin 36% EBIT of 7%
  • 42. service Higher turns Higher service As measured by Gross Margin 30% 36% 42% 3 4,5 9 26% 29% 32% Lower cost (R&D + SG&A) Example Benchmark for Technology Companies Product Leader EBIT of 10% EBIT/Inventory$ = 0,5 Opex/Cost Leader EBIT of 4% EBIT/Inventory$ = 0,5 Customer Intimacy EBIT of 7% EBIT/Inventory$ = 0,5
  • 43. Product Leader Turns of 3 for an Indirect cost around 32% For a gross margin 42% EBIT of 10% Opex/Cost Leader Turns of 9 for … an indirect cost 26% gross margin 30% EBIT of 4% Customer Intimacy Leader Turns of 4,5 for … an indirect cost 29% gross margin 36% EBIT of 7%
  • 44. Product Leader Turns of 3 for an Indirect cost around 32% For a gross margin 42% EBIT of 10% Opex/Cost Leader Turns of 9 for … an indirect cost 26% gross margin 30% EBIT of 4% Customer Intimacy Leader Turns of 4,5 for … an indirect cost 29% gross margin 36% EBIT of 7%
  • 45. service inventory cost Higher turns Higher service As measured by Gross Margin 30% 36% 42% 3 4,5 9 26% 29% 32% Lower cost (R&D + SG&A) Benchmarking Approach 1. Analyse gross margin of different competitors 3. Analyse Inventory Performance for Product / Customer / Cost 2. Analyse R&D + SG&A expenses of different competitors 4. Balance the targets by ensuring the same EBIT/Inventory$ performance Gross Margin SG&A R&D Strat High High High Product Medium High Low Customer Low Low Low Cost
  • 46. • Don’t benchmark in 1 dimension, but in multiple dimension • Make sure to look at Service, Cost and Cash aspects (the Supply Chain Triangle) • Different strategies lead to different targets • Always define targets for a combined set of metrics • All strategies should enable a comparable ROCE
  • 47. Thank You!! Prof.dr. Bram Desmet bram_desmet@solventure.eu +32.497.58.28.60 be.linkedin.com/pub/bram-desmet/1/788/823/ @bram_desmet