1. The emergence of an innovative disjuncture –
anticipation of value, fluid business models
Development paper
ISBE 2010
Ted
Fuller
Lorraine
Warren
Paul Walland

2. Context
 Disruptive Innovation
 Creative industries
 MUPPITS
– in-depth case study of MUPPITS (Multiple User Post-Production IT
Services), a high technology R&D project designed to address challenges
faced by the UK film and broadcasting post-production industry.
– MUPPITS is based on new technology, but overall is a systemic approach
to work design that brings together key players in the UK post-production
value chain: HIGH IMPACT, TRANSFORMATIONAL, DISRUPTIVE
– Qualitative methods to track emergence of new systems through project
[over years], developmental use of quantitative methods [simulation and
optimisation] to deal with poorly formed problems in nascent industry
spaces

3. Purpose
 Disruptive industry change -> how might this
emerge? How might we create/capture
emergent value [or increase likelihood of
capturing emergent value]
 Engender new business models – HOW?
ROAD MAP FOR INDUCTIVE THINKING
NOT CLEAR
 Know when and how to intervene -> POLICY
AND PRACTICE

4.  Individual (Level A)
Intention, agency, personality, cognitive process
 Interaction (Level B)
Discourse patterns, symbolic interaction, collaboration, negotiation
 Ephemeral Emergents (Level C)
Topic, context, interactional frame, participation structure; relative role
and status
 Stable Emergents (Level D)
Group sub-cultures, group slang and catchphrases, conversational
routines, shared social practices, collective memory)
 Social Structure (Level E)
Written texts (procedures, laws, regulations); material systems and
infrastructures (architecture, urban design, communication and transport
networks)
The Emergence Paradigm (Sawyer 2005, p211), showing the ‘circle of emergence’ (p220), i.e.
that area which is subject to social emergence

5. Examining
 Nature and pathways of inter-activity between agents, values
 How possible trajectories were identified and tested out, either
as thought experiments, shared mental models, or sometimes
as rough working prototypes….
 How ‘ephemeral emergents’ are narrowed down to the most
promising variant: at this point the transition from ephemeral to
stable occurs.
 this is the point at which discussions shift from value creation
to value capture. (Warren, Fuller et al, 2009)

6. Post-hoc, real-time, futurology

7. Anticipation?
 Technology arose from another sector, “Service Based Workflow
Management”, from Aerospace and Automotive design fields
 Relatively stable and well understood, but within the media industry it
had not been applied to the emerging challenges of digital file-based
working [growing trend]
 the arrival of file-based working, the increasing content demands of
HD, 4k and 3D, increasing demands on rendering complexity,
increased concern by customers about security of content because of
ease of sharing in the digital world, increased capability of digital
networking technology, dedicated networks, massive storage
requirements for digital content and infrastructure limitations in Soho.
All of these contributory elements can be shown as converging
towards the need for a solution,
 Financial environment, TSB, connectivity in Soho [propagation,
amplification]

8. Ongoing
 Development of various business models –
virtual markets
 Poorly formed problem space – definition of
entities, variables, messy data, multivariate
 Simulation, optimisation
 Alpha-beta, Pinewood