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IP’s 20 Year Evolution
Adaptation or Extinction…


   This presentation contains confidential and privileged
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    unauthorized review, copying, or distribution of this
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              © Copyright 2011 Infinitedge LLC


    STRATEGY t PERSPECTIVE t EXECUTION
Evolution

 Evolution is any change across successive generations in the heritable
    characteristics of Semiconductor IP populations.


 Adaptation in Semiconductor IP is a trait with a current functional role in
    the life history of a company that is maintained and evolved by means
    of natural selection.
                                                                     Definitions Adapted from Wikipedia




Dec 2011                          IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                                        1
Electronics and IP Over the Ages…

                                                            Custom                        Early           Enriched              Age of
               Pre-IP “Historic” Age                        Design                       Mobility        Multimedia            Modern IP
                                                             Age                           Age              Age
GigaFlops




                                                                                                                       iOS
                                                                                                        LINUX                               IP
                                                                               SoC
                                                                                                                    Android                Sub
                                                                              Tools
                                                                                                                                          Systems
                                     EDA
                                                                                           Wireless
MegaFlops




                                                                                        Drives Mixed-
                                                                                                                                 Multi-
                                              EDA Enables                               signal Design           Analog IP
                                                                                                                                 Cores
                                               IC Design

              Proprietary          Discrete
                                                                                                                               Multi-core
                                                                                  Digital IP                                     Drives
                 Tools                RF
                                                                                                                             SoC Design Req.
                                                                                        IP Industry
                                   Fabless Semi             FPGA
                                                                                          Evolves
                   RTOS               Drives
KiloFlops




               Discrete
                                    Innovation              ASSP
                Analog
                MPU’s                  ASIC
                CPU’s



            1980            1985                1990                   1995                       2000            2005                    2010
 Dec 2011                                                      IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                                                     2
1980 – 1990 “Pre-IP Historic”

          Dominated by major diversified semiconductor companies
          ASIC companies create EDA industry
          Programmability drives need for FPGA and fuels memory growth


                         30.0%
                                                                                                              Bubble Size Represents Total EV/Revenues

                         25.0%                                          1990
                                                                                                              SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND IP
                         20.0%
                                                                                                              AUTOMOTIVE

                         15.0%                                                                                CONSUMER MULTIMEDIA

                         10.0%                                                                                COMMS INFRASTRUCTURE

                                                                                                              ANALOG/RF
                          5.0%

                                                                                                              MEMORY PROGRAMMABLE
                           0.0%
                 (1.0%) (0.5%) 0.0%   0.5%   1.0%   1.5%   2.0%     2.5%        3.0%       3.5%      4.0%     DIVERSIFIED SEMICONDUCTOR
                         (5.0%)



      1980              1985                  1990                        1995                              2000                   2005                  2010
Dec 2011                                                          IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                                                              3
1990 - 1995 “Custom Design Age”

          ASIC companies create “content” leading to early IP companies
          FPGA continues to grow
          Market rewards targeted providers (automotive, consumer multimedia)


                         30.0%

                                                                  1995
                                                                                                 Bubble Size Represents Total EV/Revenues

                         25.0%          24.8%
                                                                                                 SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND IP
                         20.0%
                                                                                                 AUTOMOTIVE

                         15.0%                                                                   CONSUMER MULTIMEDIA

                         10.0%                                                                   COMMS INFRASTRUCTURE

                                                                                                 ANALOG/RF
                           5.0%

                                                                                                 MEMORY PROGRAMMABLE
                            0.0%
                 (10.0%) (5.0%) 0.0%   5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%            DIVERSIFIED SEMICONDUCTOR
                          (5.0%)



      1980              1985                 1990                   1995                       2000                   2005                  2010
Dec 2011                                                    IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                                                       4
1995 – 2000 “Early Mobility Age”

          Mobile telephony drives need for communications infrastructure
              ARM secures major telephony wins
              Internet starts to gain dominance in industry
          ESW fueled by increasing demand of IP to complete ecosystem

                        30.0%
                                                                                                        Bubble Size Represents Total EV/Revenues

                        25.0%                                       2000
                                                                                                        SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND IP
                        20.0%
                                                                                                        AUTOMOTIVE

                        15.0%                                                                           CONSUMER MULTIMEDIA

                        10.0%                                                                           COMMS INFRASTRUCTURE

                                                                                                        ANALOG/RF
                         5.0%

                                                                                                        MEMORY PROGRAMMABLE
                         0.0%
                   (10.0%)    0.0%   10.0%   20.0%   30.0%       40.0%           50.0%          60.0%   DIVERSIFIED SEMICONDUCTOR
                        (5.0%)



      1980                1985               1990                    1995                           2000                     2005                  2010
Dec 2011                                                     IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                                                             5
2000 – 2005 “Enriched Multimedia Age”

          Mobile communications and multimedia converge into smart phones and
           tablets
          Convergence of triple play in home (phone, television, computer)
          Apple, Google and ARM challenge traditional market leadership

                   30.0%
                                                                                             Bubble Size Represents Total EV/Revenues

                   25.0%                                       2005
                                                                                             SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND IP
                   20.0%
                                                                                             AUTOMOTIVE

                   15.0%                                                                     CONSUMER MULTIMEDIA

                   10.0%                                                                     COMMS INFRASTRUCTURE

                                                                                             ANALOG/RF
                    5.0%

                                                                                             MEMORY PROGRAMMABLE
                      0.0%
                 (10.0%) 0.0%   10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%              DIVERSIFIED SEMICONDUCTOR
                    (5.0%)



      1980              1985              1990                  1995                       2000                   2005                  2010
Dec 2011                                                IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                                                       6
2005 – Present “Age of IP Sub-systems”

          Complexity of design drives need for IP and system solutions
          IP revenues continue to grow
          System value displacing semiconductor value
          Premium on integration in the form of digital IP, analog IP and ESW
                          30.0%
                                                                                                Bubble Size Represents Total EV/Revenues

                          25.0%          2011                                                   SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND IP
                          20.0%
                                                                                                AUTOMOTIVE

                          15.0%                                                                 CONSUMER MULTIMEDIA

                          10.0%                                                                 COMMS INFRASTRUCTURE

                                                                                                ANALOG/RF
                           5.0%

                                                                                                MEMORY PROGRAMMABLE
                           0.0%
                 (5.0%)           0.0%   5.0%    10.0%            15.0%                 20.0%   DIVERSIFIED SEMICONDUCTOR
                          (5.0%)



      1980                1985            1990               1995                           2000                    2005                   2010
Dec 2011                                             IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                                                             7
CPU & MCU Evolution

                                            Custom                        Early       Enriched       Age of
           Pre-IP “Historic” Age            Design                       Mobility    Multimedia     Modern IP
                                             Age                           Age          Age
                   68K               ARM6


                                                                                                                Major
                                                                                                                 MCU
                                                                                                                Adapt


                     Acorn

                                            ARM Emerges

                                                                                                   Motorola
                                                                                                   becomes
                                                                                           PPC      extinct




      1980         1985            1990                1995                       2000      2005              2010
Dec 2011                                       IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                                      8
EDA (IP Related)

                                             Custom                            Early       Enriched     Age of
           Pre-IP “Historic” Age             Design                           Mobility    Multimedia   Modern IP
                                              Age                               Age          Age




                                           Logic Modeling
                                                                        Ambit Design
                                            Corporation
                                                                          Systems




                                   Redwood Design
                                     Automation




      1980         1985            1990                     1995                       2000     2005        2010
Dec 2011                                            IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                               9
Standards Based IP & Libraries

                                          Custom                       Early       Enriched     Age of
           Pre-IP “Historic” Age          Design                      Mobility    Multimedia   Modern IP
                                           Age                          Age          Age




      1980         1985            1990             1995                       2000     2005        2010
Dec 2011                                    IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                               10
Embedded Software

                                          Custom                       Early       Enriched              Age of
           Pre-IP “Historic” Age          Design                      Mobility    Multimedia            Modern IP
                                           Age                          Age          Age




                                                                                      Berkeley Real-Time
                                                                                      Software Innovations
                                                                                       Design




      1980         1985            1990             1995                       2000           2005           2010
Dec 2011                                    IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                                        11
What Does the Future Bring?




                          Mobile Broadband
                           Global Coverage
                            Connectivity
                         Machine-to-Machine
                              Always-on




                  50 Billion Devices Connected by 2025 !
Dec 2011                       IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France   12
Connectivity and Enriched Media Driving Growth

                                                                                                                  Wireless Networks
                                                  2G
                                                                                                                          Fixed Mobile
                                                                                                                          Convergence
                                                 GSM
                                                CDMA                  3G


                                                                    UMTS
                                                                   WCDMA
                                                                                                     4G

                                                                                                     LTE


              Broadband Driving Growth



                                                                                                                 Broadband Networks
                              Broadband          768Kb

                                                Copper                                                                Streaming Digital
                                                 Cable
           Narrowband
                                               Wireless             10Mbps                                                    Content
           Subscribers
                                               Satellite
                                                 Fiber       Double play (STB)

                                                                                                    1Gb

                                                                                             Triple play (APA)



              Broadband Driving Growth

                                                   Home
                                                                                                                    Sensor Networks
                                                  Control

                              Broadband
                                                                                                                           Machine to
                                                WPAN
                                                            Security/Tracking
                                                                                                                           Machine I/F
                                               ZIGBEE
           Narrowband                          Cellular
           Subscribers
                                                 NFC              Energy Management
                                                RFID

                                                                                    Transactions

                    Source: The Dolcera Blog


Dec 2011                                                         IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                                         13
Relative Market Performance
                                                Semiconductor IP
                  80.00%


                  60.00%


                  40.00%


                  20.00%
 Indexed Prices
  % Change in




                   0.00%


                  -20.00%


                  -40.00%


                  -60.00%


                  -80.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                            Embedded Software
                            NASDAQ Composite Index (^COMP) - Index Value              PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (^SOX) - Index Value   SIP Index


                            IE SIP Index: ARM, Aware, Imagination Technologies, MIPS, MoSys, Rambus, CEVA, WiLan, Silicon Image, MOSAID




                                                              Semiconductor IP and Embedded Software
                                                   Consistently Outperform Electronics and Semiconductor Markets
Dec 2011                                                                                                                                                 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                       14
Semiconductor Market Momentum and Growth


                                                                                                       Semiconductor IP              Bubble Size Represents Total EV/Revenues




                             Video                                                                                    Embedded
                                                           Telecom /                                                   Software
                                                                                                                                                SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND IP
                                                            Datacom
           Market Momentum




                                              Wireless                                                                                          AUTOMOTIVE
                                                                               Optical
                                     EDA                                                                                                        CONSUMER MULTIMEDIA
                                                                                                                                                COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE
                                                                                                                                                ANALOG/RF
                                                                                                                                                MEMORY PROGRAMMABLE
                                                                Storage
                                             Diversified                                                                                        DIVERSIFIED SEMICONDUCTOR
                                           Semiconductor




                                                         Growth (3yr CAGR)
                                                                           Bubble Size = EV/Revenues
                                                                          Source: Infinitedge/CAPIQ Oct 2011




                                      Fastest Growing Segments Focused on IP and Embedded Software
Dec 2011                                                                                          IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France                                              15
Increased Activity in M&A Landscape




             6                                                 16




             42                                                57+
Dec 2011                    IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France         16
Summary


          Market Drivers
              People & Devices – Connected
              Enriched Multi-Media




          Semiconductor Forces for Change
              Design Starts continue to decline
              Complexity of design drives need for IP and System solutions
              IP revenues continue to grow
              No longer differentiate with silicon manufacturing
              System value displacing semiconductor value
              Premium on integration in the form of hardware and software IP



Dec 2011                                      IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France   17

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IP's 20 year evolution - adaptation or extinction

  • 1. IP’s 20 Year Evolution Adaptation or Extinction… This presentation contains confidential and privileged material for the sole use of the intended recipient. Any unauthorized review, copying, or distribution of this document by others is strictly prohibited. © Copyright 2011 Infinitedge LLC STRATEGY t PERSPECTIVE t EXECUTION
  • 2. Evolution Evolution is any change across successive generations in the heritable characteristics of Semiconductor IP populations. Adaptation in Semiconductor IP is a trait with a current functional role in the life history of a company that is maintained and evolved by means of natural selection. Definitions Adapted from Wikipedia Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 1
  • 3. Electronics and IP Over the Ages… Custom Early Enriched Age of Pre-IP “Historic” Age Design Mobility Multimedia Modern IP Age Age Age GigaFlops iOS LINUX IP SoC Android Sub Tools Systems EDA Wireless MegaFlops Drives Mixed- Multi- EDA Enables signal Design Analog IP Cores IC Design Proprietary Discrete Multi-core Digital IP Drives Tools RF SoC Design Req. IP Industry Fabless Semi FPGA Evolves RTOS Drives KiloFlops Discrete Innovation ASSP Analog MPU’s ASIC CPU’s 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 2
  • 4. 1980 – 1990 “Pre-IP Historic”  Dominated by major diversified semiconductor companies  ASIC companies create EDA industry  Programmability drives need for FPGA and fuels memory growth 30.0% Bubble Size Represents Total EV/Revenues 25.0% 1990 SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND IP 20.0% AUTOMOTIVE 15.0% CONSUMER MULTIMEDIA 10.0% COMMS INFRASTRUCTURE ANALOG/RF 5.0% MEMORY PROGRAMMABLE 0.0% (1.0%) (0.5%) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% DIVERSIFIED SEMICONDUCTOR (5.0%) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 3
  • 5. 1990 - 1995 “Custom Design Age”  ASIC companies create “content” leading to early IP companies  FPGA continues to grow  Market rewards targeted providers (automotive, consumer multimedia) 30.0% 1995 Bubble Size Represents Total EV/Revenues 25.0% 24.8% SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND IP 20.0% AUTOMOTIVE 15.0% CONSUMER MULTIMEDIA 10.0% COMMS INFRASTRUCTURE ANALOG/RF 5.0% MEMORY PROGRAMMABLE 0.0% (10.0%) (5.0%) 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% DIVERSIFIED SEMICONDUCTOR (5.0%) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 4
  • 6. 1995 – 2000 “Early Mobility Age”  Mobile telephony drives need for communications infrastructure  ARM secures major telephony wins  Internet starts to gain dominance in industry  ESW fueled by increasing demand of IP to complete ecosystem 30.0% Bubble Size Represents Total EV/Revenues 25.0% 2000 SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND IP 20.0% AUTOMOTIVE 15.0% CONSUMER MULTIMEDIA 10.0% COMMS INFRASTRUCTURE ANALOG/RF 5.0% MEMORY PROGRAMMABLE 0.0% (10.0%) 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% DIVERSIFIED SEMICONDUCTOR (5.0%) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 5
  • 7. 2000 – 2005 “Enriched Multimedia Age”  Mobile communications and multimedia converge into smart phones and tablets  Convergence of triple play in home (phone, television, computer)  Apple, Google and ARM challenge traditional market leadership 30.0% Bubble Size Represents Total EV/Revenues 25.0% 2005 SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND IP 20.0% AUTOMOTIVE 15.0% CONSUMER MULTIMEDIA 10.0% COMMS INFRASTRUCTURE ANALOG/RF 5.0% MEMORY PROGRAMMABLE 0.0% (10.0%) 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% DIVERSIFIED SEMICONDUCTOR (5.0%) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 6
  • 8. 2005 – Present “Age of IP Sub-systems”  Complexity of design drives need for IP and system solutions  IP revenues continue to grow  System value displacing semiconductor value  Premium on integration in the form of digital IP, analog IP and ESW 30.0% Bubble Size Represents Total EV/Revenues 25.0% 2011 SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND IP 20.0% AUTOMOTIVE 15.0% CONSUMER MULTIMEDIA 10.0% COMMS INFRASTRUCTURE ANALOG/RF 5.0% MEMORY PROGRAMMABLE 0.0% (5.0%) 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% DIVERSIFIED SEMICONDUCTOR (5.0%) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 7
  • 9. CPU & MCU Evolution Custom Early Enriched Age of Pre-IP “Historic” Age Design Mobility Multimedia Modern IP Age Age Age 68K ARM6 Major MCU Adapt Acorn ARM Emerges Motorola becomes PPC extinct 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 8
  • 10. EDA (IP Related) Custom Early Enriched Age of Pre-IP “Historic” Age Design Mobility Multimedia Modern IP Age Age Age Logic Modeling Ambit Design Corporation Systems Redwood Design Automation 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 9
  • 11. Standards Based IP & Libraries Custom Early Enriched Age of Pre-IP “Historic” Age Design Mobility Multimedia Modern IP Age Age Age 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 10
  • 12. Embedded Software Custom Early Enriched Age of Pre-IP “Historic” Age Design Mobility Multimedia Modern IP Age Age Age Berkeley Real-Time Software Innovations Design 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 11
  • 13. What Does the Future Bring? Mobile Broadband Global Coverage Connectivity Machine-to-Machine Always-on 50 Billion Devices Connected by 2025 ! Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 12
  • 14. Connectivity and Enriched Media Driving Growth Wireless Networks 2G Fixed Mobile Convergence GSM CDMA 3G UMTS WCDMA 4G LTE Broadband Driving Growth Broadband Networks Broadband 768Kb Copper Streaming Digital Cable Narrowband Wireless 10Mbps Content Subscribers Satellite Fiber Double play (STB) 1Gb Triple play (APA) Broadband Driving Growth Home Sensor Networks Control Broadband Machine to WPAN Security/Tracking Machine I/F ZIGBEE Narrowband Cellular Subscribers NFC Energy Management RFID Transactions Source: The Dolcera Blog Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 13
  • 15. Relative Market Performance Semiconductor IP 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% Indexed Prices % Change in 0.00% -20.00% -40.00% -60.00% -80.00% Embedded Software NASDAQ Composite Index (^COMP) - Index Value PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (^SOX) - Index Value SIP Index IE SIP Index: ARM, Aware, Imagination Technologies, MIPS, MoSys, Rambus, CEVA, WiLan, Silicon Image, MOSAID Semiconductor IP and Embedded Software Consistently Outperform Electronics and Semiconductor Markets Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 14
  • 16. Semiconductor Market Momentum and Growth Semiconductor IP Bubble Size Represents Total EV/Revenues Video Embedded Telecom / Software SEMICONDUCTOR DESIGN AND IP Datacom Market Momentum Wireless AUTOMOTIVE Optical EDA CONSUMER MULTIMEDIA COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE ANALOG/RF MEMORY PROGRAMMABLE Storage Diversified DIVERSIFIED SEMICONDUCTOR Semiconductor Growth (3yr CAGR) Bubble Size = EV/Revenues Source: Infinitedge/CAPIQ Oct 2011 Fastest Growing Segments Focused on IP and Embedded Software Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 15
  • 17. Increased Activity in M&A Landscape 6 16 42 57+ Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 16
  • 18. Summary  Market Drivers  People & Devices – Connected  Enriched Multi-Media  Semiconductor Forces for Change  Design Starts continue to decline  Complexity of design drives need for IP and System solutions  IP revenues continue to grow  No longer differentiate with silicon manufacturing  System value displacing semiconductor value  Premium on integration in the form of hardware and software IP Dec 2011 IP / SoC 2011 - Grenoble, France 17