This document presents an assessment of climate change impacts on coffee systems, highlighting the vulnerability of farmers in regions like Nicaragua and Guatemala due to decreasing yields and increased pest issues. It discusses methodologies for modeling crop suitability and the need for adaptive strategies, focusing on diversification and enhancing farmers' capacities. The findings indicate significant future changes in coffee production areas, necessitating ongoing research and adaptation efforts.

1. Assessing climate change impact in coffee systemsP Läderach, O Ovalle, A EitzingerPresented by Christian Bunn2nd Coffee & Climate Steering Committee Meeting July 2011

2. Context

3. Methodologies + ResultsClimate data Precis

4. Downscaling

5. Climate Change in GuatemalaCrop suitabilityModeling Approaches

6. Brazilian Research

7. Guatemala Results

8. OutlookOutline

9. ContextPerceptions“The climate has become inpredictable it rains less and very irregularly, my yield has decreased and I have more pest and disease problems.”Don Pedro, Nicaragua, Madriz, January, 2010

10. ContextOverall ApproachOutputProcessInputsStatistical Downscaling of Climate InformationFuture Climatesat Local scaleGlobal Climate Model (GCM) OutputsCrop Suitability and Niche ModelingYield and Quality ImpactsProduction and Quality DataDIRECT IMPACTVulnerability AnalysesSocio Economic InformationADAPTIVE CAPACITYAlternative Livelihood StrategiesINDIRECT SENSITIVITY

11. ContextCoffee Under Pressure (CUP) ProjectObjectivePredict the impact of climate change on coffee production and farmers livelihoods and develop chain inclusive adaptation strategiesBeneficiaries (7000 farmers) Mexico (GMCR)

12. El Salvador (GMCR)

13. Guatemala (GMCR)

14. Nicaragua (GMCR)Method partially implementedPeru (AdapCC, GTZ)

15. Kenya (AdapCC, GTZ)ContextGeneral livelihood impacts in NicaraguaHighly variable yieldsDependency on coffeePostharvest managementPest and disease issuesMigration

16. ContextSpecific vulnerability profiles of farmers in NicaraguaMatagalpa is characterized by high exposure (coffee suitability decreases drastically) high sensitivity (high variability in yields) and low adaptive capacity (poor access to credit, poor knowledge on pest and disease management and low diversification). The adaptation strategy focuses on diversification, capacity building, strengthening of the organizations and on the enforcement of environmental laws and development policies for the coffee sector.

17. MethodologyFuture ClimateClimate Change modelsDifferences between regional climate scenariosOverview of climatic change in Guatemala

18. MethodologyFuture Climate

19. Regional ClimateMethodologyDownscalingClimatic changes only relevant at global scale

20. At regional scale relationships between variables are constant

21. Detailled and Quick and All GCMsRegional Climate ModelsFull Climate Model with detailled information

22. 25km grid

23. Few GCMs and computing time intensiveGuatemala Climate ProjectionMethodology-+20502020-+-current-+-----

24. Crop ModelingMethodologyCrop modelsIntroduction to crop prediction modelsDifferences between modelsFirst results for Guatemala