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Insights & Market Research
Scenarios for 2027
Ray Poynter
NewMR & Platform One
Sponsors
Communication
Agenda
• What is scenario thinking?
• Where are we now?
• The Premises & Factors
• The Scenarios
• Recommendations
• Q & A
Can you forecast the future,
better than a chimp?
Tetlock’s study
1984 – 2005
284 experts
28,000 predictions
Experts were worse than random
Where is the ball
going to go?
Scenario Cones
Adapted from Charles Taylor’s ‘Cone of Plausibility’ 1990 & Timpe and Scheepers ‘Scenario Funnel’ 2003.
time
Now Future Horizon
Insight Scenario
• Domain: Market Research and Insights
• Geography: Global, with a special note for APAC
• Horizon: 2027 – five years
Where are we now?
Approx. $120 Billion
A large industry, dominated by USA
MR is <40% of the Insights Industry
Source:
ESOMAR GMR 2022
Tech-enabled growing fastest
Source:
ESOMAR GMR 2022
Detailed Insights Picture
Rank Country %
1 USA 52.7%
2 UK 9.3%
3 China 2.8%
4 India 2.2%
5 Australia 2.1%
6 France 2.0%
7 Germany 1.9%
8 Japan 1.8%
9 Canada 0.6%
10 Italy 0.6%
11 Spain 0.5%
12 South Korea 0.5%
13 Netherlands 0.4%
14 Sweden 0.4%
15 Switzerland 0.3%
APAC over indexes on Established Research
APAC under indexes on Tech Enabled Research
(Except India)
65% of Insights $ in English speaking countries
USA $s create more
opportunities for start-ups
This drives focus on American
language and culture
Other key facts about where we are
• Qualitative research is holding its position in Established Research
(about 15%)
• The pandemic pushed more qual online
• More than 50% of research is ‘No Questions’ research, e.g. passive
monitoring
• More than 50% of research projects conducted internally by clients
• Participation rates in research are falling
• More survey frauds and more sophisticated frauds
Things that we assume (for the purposes of
this project) are going to happen during the
timeframe
Premises
Premises –
five years
• The amount of data will continue to grow
• Use of customer information by organizations
will increase
• Data regulations will get stricter and more
onerous
• Timelines will get shorter, and budgets will tend
to shrink
• Supply of talented insight professionals won’t
significantly increase
• The demand for DIY research will increase, and
so will the number of DIY options available
• Tactical research will grow faster than strategic
research
• There will be more new entrants from non-
traditional suppliers of MR & Insight
Things we assume are going to happen during the
timeframe, but which might go in two or more directions
Exogenous Factors – outside MR/Insight
Endogenous Factors – inside MR/Insight
Factors
Exogenous Factors – five years
Geopolitical
1) Things could stabilize. 2) Things could get worse (more conflicts, more sanctions, etc).
Finance
1) Some inflation & slightly high interest rates. 2) High inflation, high interest rates, wild
swings in currency exchange rates, recessions, & crashes.
International Trade
1) Trade stabilizes. 2) Trade gets less free, i.e. more barriers, tariffs & restrictions.
Technology
1) Technology expands human connectivity. 2) Technology becomes Balkanized.
Environment
1) No immediate catastrophes. 2) One or more catastrophes (unlikely but possible)
Endogenous Factors – five years
Artificial Intelligence
1) AI improves current processes. 2) AI significantly replaces current processes.
Platforms
1) Continue to expand on current trajectory. 2) Big growth in terms of power, ease of
use, and lower costs.
Participation levels
• 1) Stable number of respondents and fraud under some control. 2) Continued decreases
in cooperation rates and fraud increases.
USA Dominance
• 1) USA stays at about 50% of MR/Insights. 2) USA expands to 60% or 70% of total global
MR revenue.
Other things to keep in mind
Data breach – in the research industry
Diversity and ethics
Human centricity
Emerging phenomena, learning now for the next five years
• Automated qual and Automated analysis
• The metaverse
• Conversational data collection
• Biometrics and neuroscience
• New gadgets (a Google Glass that works, smart watches, smart homes etc)
Scenarios Established
Research Positive
Tech, DIY & AI
Geopolitics & Finance Positive
Geopolitics & Finance Crisis
Improbable
2019 Mark II
• Established Research & Tech-
enabled both grow
• Domestic & International grow
• New entrants in research space
• AI/automation improves
efficiency
• More focus on participant
quality
Brave New World
• Tech-enabled expands rapidly
• Local agencies less central
• New entrants into the research space
• AI focuses on DIY
• Established Research declines
I Robot
• Tech-enabled expands very rapidly
• AI focuses on DIY
• Focus on English grows
• Prices for most research fall
• Established Research for
hard problems
• Reduced budgets in APAC
Recommendations - Clients
1. Grow use platforms
• Create internal processes to be agile, scalable, & quality assured
• Have agency partners for capacity & harder cases
2. Assume that you will change platforms every couple of
years
3. Monitor data quality, especially with black-box solutions
4. Use qual specialists for most qual research – automation
is not ready for business-critical projects
Recommendations – Agencies
1. Use AI and automation to improve efficiency
2. Develop a sales mentality, team and system
3. What balance: tech-enabled versus specialist in ‘real
research’
4. In good times
• Attract good staff, push the real research / specialist options
5. In bad times
• Scale back, push the tech-enabled
Recommendations - Individuals
Two key options
1. Manage the changes, e.g. be the person implementing
AI/Automation
2. Avoid competing with machines, e.g. ethnographers, customer
success managers, storytellers, strategists, data analysts
Key skills
• Understanding business
• Using AI and automation to make you more efficient
• Focus on story finding and storytelling
• Have a specialty
Q & A
Ray Poynter
NewMR
Sponsors
Communication

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Insights & Market Research in 2027 – Scenario Thinking

  • 1. Insights & Market Research Scenarios for 2027 Ray Poynter NewMR & Platform One
  • 3. Agenda • What is scenario thinking? • Where are we now? • The Premises & Factors • The Scenarios • Recommendations • Q & A
  • 4. Can you forecast the future, better than a chimp? Tetlock’s study 1984 – 2005 284 experts 28,000 predictions Experts were worse than random
  • 5. Where is the ball going to go?
  • 6. Scenario Cones Adapted from Charles Taylor’s ‘Cone of Plausibility’ 1990 & Timpe and Scheepers ‘Scenario Funnel’ 2003. time Now Future Horizon
  • 7. Insight Scenario • Domain: Market Research and Insights • Geography: Global, with a special note for APAC • Horizon: 2027 – five years
  • 9. Approx. $120 Billion A large industry, dominated by USA
  • 10. MR is <40% of the Insights Industry Source: ESOMAR GMR 2022
  • 12. Detailed Insights Picture Rank Country % 1 USA 52.7% 2 UK 9.3% 3 China 2.8% 4 India 2.2% 5 Australia 2.1% 6 France 2.0% 7 Germany 1.9% 8 Japan 1.8% 9 Canada 0.6% 10 Italy 0.6% 11 Spain 0.5% 12 South Korea 0.5% 13 Netherlands 0.4% 14 Sweden 0.4% 15 Switzerland 0.3% APAC over indexes on Established Research APAC under indexes on Tech Enabled Research (Except India) 65% of Insights $ in English speaking countries USA $s create more opportunities for start-ups This drives focus on American language and culture
  • 13. Other key facts about where we are • Qualitative research is holding its position in Established Research (about 15%) • The pandemic pushed more qual online • More than 50% of research is ‘No Questions’ research, e.g. passive monitoring • More than 50% of research projects conducted internally by clients • Participation rates in research are falling • More survey frauds and more sophisticated frauds
  • 14. Things that we assume (for the purposes of this project) are going to happen during the timeframe Premises
  • 15. Premises – five years • The amount of data will continue to grow • Use of customer information by organizations will increase • Data regulations will get stricter and more onerous • Timelines will get shorter, and budgets will tend to shrink • Supply of talented insight professionals won’t significantly increase • The demand for DIY research will increase, and so will the number of DIY options available • Tactical research will grow faster than strategic research • There will be more new entrants from non- traditional suppliers of MR & Insight
  • 16. Things we assume are going to happen during the timeframe, but which might go in two or more directions Exogenous Factors – outside MR/Insight Endogenous Factors – inside MR/Insight Factors
  • 17. Exogenous Factors – five years Geopolitical 1) Things could stabilize. 2) Things could get worse (more conflicts, more sanctions, etc). Finance 1) Some inflation & slightly high interest rates. 2) High inflation, high interest rates, wild swings in currency exchange rates, recessions, & crashes. International Trade 1) Trade stabilizes. 2) Trade gets less free, i.e. more barriers, tariffs & restrictions. Technology 1) Technology expands human connectivity. 2) Technology becomes Balkanized. Environment 1) No immediate catastrophes. 2) One or more catastrophes (unlikely but possible)
  • 18. Endogenous Factors – five years Artificial Intelligence 1) AI improves current processes. 2) AI significantly replaces current processes. Platforms 1) Continue to expand on current trajectory. 2) Big growth in terms of power, ease of use, and lower costs. Participation levels • 1) Stable number of respondents and fraud under some control. 2) Continued decreases in cooperation rates and fraud increases. USA Dominance • 1) USA stays at about 50% of MR/Insights. 2) USA expands to 60% or 70% of total global MR revenue.
  • 19. Other things to keep in mind Data breach – in the research industry Diversity and ethics Human centricity Emerging phenomena, learning now for the next five years • Automated qual and Automated analysis • The metaverse • Conversational data collection • Biometrics and neuroscience • New gadgets (a Google Glass that works, smart watches, smart homes etc)
  • 20. Scenarios Established Research Positive Tech, DIY & AI Geopolitics & Finance Positive Geopolitics & Finance Crisis Improbable 2019 Mark II • Established Research & Tech- enabled both grow • Domestic & International grow • New entrants in research space • AI/automation improves efficiency • More focus on participant quality Brave New World • Tech-enabled expands rapidly • Local agencies less central • New entrants into the research space • AI focuses on DIY • Established Research declines I Robot • Tech-enabled expands very rapidly • AI focuses on DIY • Focus on English grows • Prices for most research fall • Established Research for hard problems • Reduced budgets in APAC
  • 21. Recommendations - Clients 1. Grow use platforms • Create internal processes to be agile, scalable, & quality assured • Have agency partners for capacity & harder cases 2. Assume that you will change platforms every couple of years 3. Monitor data quality, especially with black-box solutions 4. Use qual specialists for most qual research – automation is not ready for business-critical projects
  • 22. Recommendations – Agencies 1. Use AI and automation to improve efficiency 2. Develop a sales mentality, team and system 3. What balance: tech-enabled versus specialist in ‘real research’ 4. In good times • Attract good staff, push the real research / specialist options 5. In bad times • Scale back, push the tech-enabled
  • 23. Recommendations - Individuals Two key options 1. Manage the changes, e.g. be the person implementing AI/Automation 2. Avoid competing with machines, e.g. ethnographers, customer success managers, storytellers, strategists, data analysts Key skills • Understanding business • Using AI and automation to make you more efficient • Focus on story finding and storytelling • Have a specialty
  • 24. Q & A Ray Poynter NewMR
  • 25.