5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Vulnerability considering residence
height and aging rate in urban area:
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
A case of Osaka, Japan
Miwa ABE
Center for Policy Studies, Kumamoto University
Japan

2. Purpose
How to get the picture of it?
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Issues and Purpose
• Our residences have became higher and higher in urban area.
• Don’t we need to consider the residence’s height,
when we talk about our disaster management?
If earthquake happen?
There are people who need support for evacuation.
Where they lives in the city?
 to understand relation between aging rate
and residence’s height
 to compare with current risk map and
height considered risk map of elerly

3. ( source: “Recovery Plan”, Akira KOSHIZAWA, 2005)
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Urban Disasters in JAPAN
Kobe Earthquake (17th Jan. 1995)
It took Six days to recover electricity.
• People cannot use lifts.
• Hard for elderly to evacuate.
• People have to bring their aid
goods from grand floor to
their own floors by stairs.

4. Data: Zi 13, Zenrin Co., Ltd.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Osaka city
www.craftmap.box-i. (30/04/2014)
Kita ward
Osaka station
Municipal Office…

6. Over Balance
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Residence’s Conditions in Study Area
Basic Data of the Kita Ward
Population 101,936 persons
Households 60,607 persons
Area 10.33 sq. km
Density of Population 10,000/sq. km
Total Number of Elderly People (at least 65 years old) 19,291 persons
Aging Population Rate: 18.4%
Average of Aging Population Rate in Japan: 23.1%
(Data at 30th Sep. 2010)
Kita-ward
Fluid Population in Daytime
344,834
23,698
Inflow Population
Outflow Population
320,000

7. Building characteristics in Kita-ward, Osaka-city
• Total houses: approximately 58,000 units
• Housing by SRC (steel-reinforced concrete) are 49,340 units.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
It means 85% is SRC.
• 90% housings are High-rise apartment complex.
Apartment which is over 6 floor is 87%.
Apartment with over 11 floor is 49%.
Apartment complex owners who are over 60 years old are increasing.
As age advances, staying in the same residence permanently increase.
(Research of complex housing by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2009）

8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Aging Population Rate (previous way)
Aging rate
m
Population Aging Rate in Each Block

9. Issued Date of Basic Resident Register
(Source by local government office)
Kanboku area：1st July, 2011
Other areas: 1st October, 2011
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Data from Basic Resident Register
Classification by residents
height; whole residents people
Select the data which is aged
person by residents height
Calculate the aging rate by
resident height
Error
Population: 0.5％
Households: 6.4％
Households Persons
Elderly People
Over 65 Years Old Over 75 Years Old
Living Condition
Single Other
Survey Sheet
F
F
F
Upper 15 Floor
Name of the Block

10. Provisional Standard for Aging Rate with
×8
×5
×2
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
Super High Floor Level
High Floor Level
Middle Floor Level
Low Floor Level
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Residence Height
15 Floor ~
6 ~ 14 Floor
3 ~ 5 Floor
1 ~ 2 Floor
×１
Aging rate at
super high
floor level
Aging rate at
high floor
level
Aging rate at
middle floor
level
Aging rate at
Apartment complex low floor level
Provisional
standard in
this study
+
+
+
map

11. Aging Rate (1~2F) Aging Rate (3~5F)
Aging Rate (6~14F) Aging Rate (15F~)
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

12. Aging Population Rate with Considering Residence’s Height
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Aging Rate by Provisional Standard
m

13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Result 1
Aging Rate by Previous Way Aging Rate with Residence Height

14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Result 2
Type C
High Rise Condominium
Developed by Private
Company
Type A
Business Zone around
Osaka Station
Type B
City-Provided Housing
Housing Complex by Urban
Renaissance Agency
m
Self-Help
Mutual-Help
Collaborate with Companies

15. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Conclusions
• High risk areas for elderly evacuation changes when the
buildings height is considered.
• Building height needs to be added to data sets for risk map to
improve an accuracy.
• It is important to make a plan based on a high risk area for
elderly and high risk area with height information added
• Preparation and support needs be carefully planed for each
area where history of housing development/ building and
characteristics of community are different

16. Thank You very much for your attention.
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Miwa ABE
m-abe@kumamoto-u.ac.jp