How to estimate future forest cover in a watershed

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This document describes a GIS-based method for local governments and watershed groups to estimate future forest cover in a watershed. The 6-step method involves: (1) identifying developed and undeveloped parcels, (2) calculating zoning categories for undeveloped land, (3) subtracting protected land, (4) multiplying buildable land by land cover coefficients, (5) calculating land cover for developed and protected land, and (6) summing future land cover. Land cover coefficients that represent the fraction of an area converted to forest or impervious cover are a key input. Implementing techniques like protecting priority forests can help increase estimated future forest cover.

How to estimate future forest cover in a watershed

future land cover projections ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

why land cover is important to watersheds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

link between forest cover and stream health ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

steps for estimating future land cover ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

GIS data needs for future land cover analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

assumptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

No buildings. Parcels not selected Parcels intersect with buildings so they are selected as “developed” parcels Step 1: identify developed and undeveloped parcels

Step 2: calculate the area of each zoning category for undeveloped land

Step 3: identify and subtract protected land from undeveloped land for each zoning category ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Step 3: results buildable land by zoning category

Step 4: multiply the remaining buildable land in each zoning category by the corresponding land cover coefficients ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

impervious cover coefficients vary by land use Source: Cappiella and Brown (2001) Land use ICC Agriculture .019 Open urban land .086 2 acre lot residential .106 1 acre lot residential .143 ½ acre lot residential .212 ¼ acre lot residential .278 1/8 acre lot residential .326 Townhomes .409 Multifamily residential .444 Institutional .344 Light industrial .534 Commercial .722

factors affecting forest cover coefficients ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

forest conservation regulations influence forest cover coefficients Photo courtesy of Harford County DPW Photo courtesy of Randall Arendt Forest cover coefficient = .057 Forest cover coefficient = .40

options for deriving forest cover coefficients ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Zoning Category Buildable Area (acres) Forest Cover Coefficient Future Forest Cover on Buildable land (acres) Agriculture 765 .168 128.5 Open Urban Land 50 .268 13.4 LDR 732 .321 235.0 MDR 645 .248 160.0 HDR 220 .203 44.7 Institutional 88 .134 11.8 Commercial 130 .067 8.7 Total 2,630 602.1

Step 5: calculate the area of each land cover type for developed land and protected land ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

sources of land cover data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

common scale issue: Map B contains alot more detail on forest cover while Map A is fairly generalized B A

Step 6: sum future land cover on buildable, developed and protected land ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],+

Step 6: results Future land cover in the watershed =

you’ve got results: now what? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

techniques to maintain or increase forest cover ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

additional resources ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

group exercise: estimating future forest cover in the Green River Watershed ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Extending the Growing Season in Northern Rhode Island, Gardening Guidebook for Rhode Island ~ Northern Rhode Island Conservation District ` For more information, Please see websites below: ` Organic Edible Schoolyards & Gardening with Children = http://scribd.com/doc/239851214 ~ ` Double Food Production from your School Garden with Organic Tech = http://scribd.com/doc/239851079 ~ ` Free School Gardening Art Posters = http://scribd.com/doc/239851159 ~ ` Increase Food Production with Companion Planting in your School Garden = http://scribd.com/doc/239851159 ~ ` Healthy Foods Dramatically Improves Student Academic Success = http://scribd.com/doc/239851348 ~ ` City Chickens for your Organic School Garden = http://scribd.com/doc/239850440 ~ ` Huerto Ecológico, Tecnologías Sostenibles, Agricultura Organica http://scribd.com/doc/239850233 ` Simple Square Foot Gardening for Schools - Teacher Guide = http://scribd.com/doc/239851110

0c960528cf0be4df8f000000(1)ELIMENG

This presentation provides an overview of a field-based practical exercise that allows students in forestry, ecology and natural resources to develop their understanding of forest stand dynamics. The exercise involves measurement of key tree growth parameters in four even-aged, single-species plantation stands of different age but occupying sites with similar soil and environmental characteristics. The selected stands represent key stages in stand development, from establishment to rotation age for fibre production. In the field, students work in small teams to gather data from an equal number of plots within each stand. Tree parameters include top height, crown diameter, live crown ratio and diameter at breast height. In addition, information on stand density and understorey vegetation is collected. Plot size and number can be varied to suit the constraints of class size and available time, though circular plots of 100 m2 are recommended. In the classroom, data are pooled and analysis focuses on presenting tree and vegetation changes through time. The simplest way of interpreting the data is to prepare graphs and charts for each of the parameters, though more advanced statistical interpretations are possible. The project as outlined here can be modified to meet the needs of different groups, and has been successfully used in undergraduate teaching of silviculture and forest ecology, as well as in postgraduate courses in natural resources management. Download Paper at URL: http://www.researchgate.net/publication/254307252_The_development_of_even-aged_plantation_forests_an_exercise_in_forest_stand_dynamics

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How to estimate future forest cover in a watershed

1. How to estimate future forest cover in a watershed

8. No buildings. Parcels not selected Parcels intersect with buildings so they are selected as “developed” parcels Step 1: identify developed and undeveloped parcels

9. Step 1: results

10. Step 2: calculate the area of each zoning category for undeveloped land

11.

12. protected lands

13. undeveloped land…

14. … minus protected land…

15. … equals buildable land

16. Step 3: results buildable land by zoning category

17.

18. impervious cover coefficients vary by land use Source: Cappiella and Brown (2001) Land use ICC Agriculture .019 Open urban land .086 2 acre lot residential .106 1 acre lot residential .143 ½ acre lot residential .212 ¼ acre lot residential .278 1/8 acre lot residential .326 Townhomes .409 Multifamily residential .444 Institutional .344 Light industrial .534 Commercial .722

19.

20.

21.

22. forest conservation regulations influence forest cover coefficients Photo courtesy of Harford County DPW Photo courtesy of Randall Arendt Forest cover coefficient = .057 Forest cover coefficient = .40

23.

24. Zoning Category Buildable Area (acres) Forest Cover Coefficient Future Forest Cover on Buildable land (acres) Agriculture 765 .168 128.5 Open Urban Land 50 .268 13.4 LDR 732 .321 235.0 MDR 645 .248 160.0 HDR 220 .203 44.7 Institutional 88 .134 11.8 Commercial 130 .067 8.7 Total 2,630 602.1

25.

26.

27. common scale issue: Map B contains alot more detail on forest cover while Map A is fairly generalized B A

28. Impervious cover layers

29. Step 5: results

30.

31. Step 6: results Future land cover in the watershed =

32. future land cover spreadsheet

33.

34.

35.

36.

How to estimate future forest cover in a watershed

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