How Open Education Can Cross the Chasm to Educate a Billion Globally
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Talk on How Open Education Can Cross the Chasm to Educate a Billion Globally for Saylor Academy Summit, June 22, 2017 by Andrew Sears
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How Open Education Can Cross the Chasm to Educate a Billion Globally
- 1. Saylor Academy Summit: How Open Education Can Cross the Chasm to Educate a Billion Globally 6/22/17, Washington DC Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears This talk is on YouTube at: https://youtu.be/5kXF4hcoLH0 Slideshare at: https://goo.gl/jajAk2
- 2. Image Sources: Wikipedia & http://www.theagileelephant.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Moores-Chasm.jpg Technology Adoption Life Cycle and Crossing the Chasm
- 3. Crossing the Chasm Case Study: Voice/Video over IP (VoIP) MIT’s Internet Telephony Consortium Netspeak, Natural Microsystems, HP, Lucent, Mediatrix, Nokia, Sprint, Telecom Italia, Telenor, Telia Continental Cable Image Sources: Wikipedia & http://www.theagileelephant.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Moores-Chasm.jpg
- 4. Case Study: Digital Divide, Community & Nonprofit Technology Public Libraries Image Sources: Wikipedia & http://www.theagileelephant.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Moores-Chasm.jpg
- 6. The Opportunity: 1 Billion Students by 2030 Campus 5-10 million Bachelor’s 5-20 million Alternative Credit 100’s of millions Free Courseware 1 billion • College Years 1-3 • Average Global Cost: $100/year • Building on courseware • Microcampus, online and mobile delivery • More than 50% global market share of tertiary education will be alternative education by 2030 • Free: MOOCs, OER, Apps • Average Global Cost: $1,000/year • Full range of university degrees • Online or microcampus delivery • Transformational campus community • Average Global Cost: $2,000/year • Primary growth will be microcampuses • Critical for early majority & developing countries Global Digital Ecosystem (5-7 Billion) Target Market 84% of HE growth in developing countries 4.9 billion middle class by 2030 263 million students in HE by 2025
- 7. Disruptive Innovation in Post-Secondary Education • Corporate Education • Disruptive Megauniversities • OER in Community Colleges • Early College High School • Government aid access to alternative providers • Homeschool & uncollege • Autodidacts • Noncredit personal enrichment • Cost-conscious innovators • Developing Countries • Education as a Feature of Tech Platforms (Google) • Digital first, mass market microcampus outlets Image Sources: Wikipedia & http://www.theagileelephant.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Moores-Chasm.jpg
- 8. Early Adopters (innovators) Technology focused Proponents of revolutionary change Visionary Users Project Oriented Willing to take risks Willing to experiment Individually self-sufficient Tend to communicate horizontally (focused across disciplines) Early Majority (pragmatists) Not technically focused Proponents of evolutionary change Pragmatic Users Process Oriented Averse to taking risks Looking for proven applications May require support Tend to communicate vertically (focused within a discipline) Source: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/281060763_tbl1_Table-1-Characteristics-of-Early-Adopters-and-Early-Majority-Geoghegan-1994
- 9. Complete Product Components to Cross the Chasm OER & Coursewar e Highly Usable Interface Contextualized Curation & Instructional Design Tech Support, Coaching & Advising & Faculty Support Need Stackable Credit Portability Recognized Credential Physical Outlets for Blended Learning if Desired • Need high usability and mobile interface (Open edX, MOOCs & Canvas) • Need separate products for B2C (simple) and B2B (flexible) • B2B: Need white label platform for partners (open alternative to OPM platforms) • B2C: More usable curation in open courseware • Need courseware targeting average & remedial students • Need YouTube of courses • B2B: Need streamlined access to course exports • B2B: Need Git and GitHub of courses • Need Alternative Quality Assurance (ACE, CLEP, NCCRSAP, CQAL, Ofqual) • Need high quality, affordable/free assessments as alternative to CLEP, AP, etc. • Need tighter linkages with traditional institutions (like Straighterline) • Need stackable, integrated end-to end pathways to degrees (Microdegrees) • Need alignment of college courses with high school standards for early college • B2C: Need free and for fee options (verified) • B2B: Need “Uber” for coaching and instruction • Focus outcomes on completions, not registrations • Need simple pathway bundles emphasized over individual courses • Need to target learning outcome bundles for jobs in specific vertical industries (like Udacity and CS) • Need partnerships with recognized brands and universities • B2B: Need ability to integrate with backoffice systems of strategic partners • Need open nonprofit alternative to OPMs (system integrators) • Need support programs for micro-colleges, nonprofit partners and & study centers • Need franchise mechanisms or physical outlets • Need partnerships for practicum, apprenticeships & psychomotor learning
- 10. Strategy to Cross the Chasm Target an initial niche market to develop a high quality, more complete solution (i.e. Udacity) Assess which components to do in house and which to do through partnerships Be willing to have both commercial and nonprofit partners Intentionally work with select customers in your niche that require whole solution to advance learning curve on whole product
- 11. Pure OER vs. Freemium Business Models Free Courses, Course Exports & Assessments Free Courses (no exports) Certified Courses with assessments Unbundled OER Learning Objects Bundled LMS Integrated Credit Pathways & Microdegrees Courses for Credit Credit Pathways (not integrated) Integrated Accredited Degree Bundles Accredited Degree Bundles (not integrated) Pure OER • Examples: Saylor, MIT Open Courseware, OLI Freemium • Examples: MOOCs, DuoLingo, Most Apps, ASU GFA Financial Subsidy Pragmatists Early Adopters Innovators The Chasm Communication & Integration Barrier Student Pipeline • Pros: leverages near zero marginal cost of content, better for B2B • Cons: communication barriers and no incentive to cross the chasm • Selling Point: Free, open near zero marginal cost content that crosses the chasm can be revolutionary (Wikipedia, Khan Academy) • Recommendations: OER needs to be donor based but with either tight pragmatist partnerships or with secondary earned income stream Integrated design of lower levels with input from upper level partners. • Pros: Strong communication & integration to cross chasm, better for B2C • Cons: Funding model limit incentive to share content • Selling Point: Currently probably has 10-100 times the volume of pragmatist completions compared to OER Model • Recommendations: Seek donors that understand value of opening content to enable more open sharing by covering loss of revenue Unbundled LMS Bundled Learning Objects
- 12. Strategy Ideas: Saylor Academy Split B2B and B2C products to learn from B2C market ◦ B2B remains in Moodle. Provide a self-serve download access to course exports. ◦ B2C is more curated & moves to Open edX (Secondarily: iTunes U, Alison.com & Udemy) Develop product line and partnerships that provide support ◦ Primary organizational outcome needs to be course completions not registrations (vanity metric) ◦ Seek coaching/tutoring partners (possibly can also do proctoring) ◦ Be more willing to secure earned income and to partner with commercial partners (avoid OER dogmatism) Potential first niches to cross the chasm ◦ Corporate (Jetblue), Community Colleges, TESC/COSC/Excelsior, WGU, Early College ◦ Pragmatist requirements for quality levels and whole product components that Saylor does not yet have will be essential to learn to cross the chasm Use fast follower strategy on Straighterline, OpenStax, Flat World, Lumen Learning ◦ Straighterline: Partner with online tutors & replicate their articulation agreements
- 13. Outline of Free MOOC in Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education 1. Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Higher Education 2. Understanding What’s Driving Change in Traditional Higher Education 3. Economics of Traditional Online Education 4. Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms 5. Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher Education 6. Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty 7. Lean Startup for Education 8. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis 9. College Access & the Race between Technology and Education 10. Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation Available on Udemy, iTunes U, YouTube & Slideshare Contact: andrew@cityvision.edu Christian Higher Education Innovation Alliance (www.cheia.org)
Editor's Notes
- My background. Grew up poor. Went to school at MIT. Good Will Hunting. Dot.com. Venture Capital. 15 years educating the poor. 2008 became a college president. A few years ago completed my doctoral dissertation on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education.
- Who here is familiar with the adoption cycle graph? Innovators are people who bought a PalmPilot, early adopters bought a Trio or Windows Phone. The idea of crossing the chasm is that the companies that serve the geeks, often are not the companies that dominate the market for the average people (iPhone and Android). Most people like to think of higher education as a single market, but its actually multiple markets.
- What I’m trying to do at City Vision is to create a new wineskin focused on this third innovation extension on the emerging market. Our school grew out of the Association of Gospel Rescue missions. Out of our first group of students, half were formerly homeless, and the other half were those serving the homeless. Of our students who apply for aid, 79% are Pell Eligible, and 41% are people of color. With that population, we have a 58% graduation rate (compared to 39% for community colleges). Of those who graduate 91% are placed in a job or continued their education. Our undiscounted tuition is $6,000/year, which makes most of our online programs the lowest cost online Christian programs of their type. Between fall 2014, and 2015, we grew our enrollment by 36%. Before you get impressed by any of that that, we only have 160 students, so we still have to scale up the program. This program is still what I would call traditional online. There is the phrase, if you don’t eat your lunch someone else will. To help us scale up, we decided to disrupt ourselves and offer a $5,000 online Bachelor’s degree. Just announced about a month ago. Still developing partnerships. Have a partnership in Kenya, UAE and talking with a 90 year old school in India with 30k students about partnering.