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Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
617-282-9798 x101
Disruptive I...
Part 1: About City Vision
Christian Education for the
Bottom Half and the Majority World
Source: (US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014)
47% of employment in America is at high risk of being automated
away over t...
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2025 2050 2075 2093
Straight Line Projection Growth Degree Attainment (USA)
Ac...
The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education. (2015, January). Indicators of Higher Education
Equit...
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2025 2050 2075 2100
Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile
Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd...
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2025 2050 2075 2100
Difference in Projected Educational Attainment
Straight Li...
About City Vision University
 History: Started Rescue College in 1998 as a Program of AGRM,
DEAC Accreditation in 2005, T...
Global Opportunity
100 Million
Students
in 2000
263 Million
Students
in 2025
(84% of growth in
the developing world)
Sourc...
City Vision’s International Strategy
 2015
◦ $3,000/year business degree to developing countries
 2016
◦ Launch new $3,0...
City Vision Cost Strategy
 Automate everything but faculty interaction
◦ SIS: Homegrown in Salesforce
◦ LMS: Moodle
◦ Enr...
Part 2. Strategic Analysis
Change
Agent
Change
Agency
Your
Institution
Christianity
(Following Jesus)
1. Education for the bottom half/majority world
2. Unbundling
3. Education on Demand
4. Stu...
1. Economics of Online Education
1. Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+
online students) is likely between ...
• Higher education overall, about 222 schools make up one-third of enrollment.
• Top 20 largest online schools account for...
2. Christian Mega-universities & Growth
Liberty U
43%
Grand Canyon U
39%
All of CCCU
18%
Estimated Growth Since 2005
Total...
Disruption & Five Forces Model
Competitiv
e Rivalry
Threat of
New
Entry
Buyer
Power
Threat of
Substitut
es
Supplier
Power
...
Christianity
1. Educating the bottom half/Non-western Growth
2. Unbundling
3. Cradle to grave Christian education ecosyste...
Paradigm 2. Unbundling of the Computer
Industry
Source: Only the Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove
U of A U of B
Virtually Integrated University
Univ.
Unbundled University
MOOCs
Open Ed
Resources
Study
Groups
Contracted
C...
City Vision’s Strategy: Bridging MOOCs & Open Ed with
Community Partners
City Vision
Credentialed
Independent
Educational
...
Christian(Jesus)
Community Colleges
MOOCs & Open Ed
Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn
Open2study, Udemy, Khan Academy,
Ali...
What business has the most locations in the USA?
14,146
25,900
Sources: http://hirr.hartsem.edu/research/fastfacts/fast_fa...
City Vision Educational Philosophy
Online Education
Local Discipleship
Study Groups:
Life Change
Internships: Skills &
Pra...
Part 3. Strategic
Recommendations
Three Visions for Future Growth of HE
1. Government
◦ Universal Community College, Nationalized Higher Education:
Obamacar...
Future of Higher Education 2035
 Tier 1: The Elite
◦ Serve top 5-10% students, tuition >$100k/year (in 2015 dollars)
◦ An...
How to Survive the Coming Storm:
Lessons from Industry Case Studies
1. Innovate, increase operational effectiveness and sc...
Components
Packaged
in a Traditional
College
Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” ...
Paradigm 3: View Christian education as a cradle to
grave ecosystem.
Nearly Free
Content
& Innovation
Christian College
(L...
Automation and Bloom’s Taxonomy
Becoming
Commoditized
• Freshman
• Sophomore
• High School
Core Competency
• Grad School
•...
BloomsTaxonomyLevel
Low
Level
Blooms
High
Level
Blooms
Subjectivity of Assessment
Objective
Assessments
Subjective
Assessm...
Paradigm 4. Education on Demand:
Accelerate Education with Automation
 Expand “Courses on Demand” freshmen/sophomore
opti...
Further Recommendations
1. Invest in marketing
◦ Facilities expense is scaled back to be replaced by marketing
expense (re...
Potential Scenario: 2035-2050
 Global Scenario
◦ 10 times growth in Christian education globally
◦ 90% of degrees are in ...
Summary: Key Takeaways
1. Access is the dominant story for higher
education in the 21st century
2. Economics & technology ...
Supreme Court Decision and Strategic Implications
of Prospect of Losing Federal Aid
Bottom Half Strategy
 Job prep/RoI fo...
Tools to Help Change Agents
 Tools for Flipped Classroom Discussion Groups
with faculty and staff at your institution:
◦ ...
For More Information
 Dissertation: “Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher
Education and the Poor.” goo.gl/nzkhRP
◦ B...
Suggested Reading
 Horn, M. B., Staker, H., & Christensen, C. M. (2014). Blended: Using Disruptive Innovation to
Improve ...
Discussion
 Part 1: Bottom Half
◦ Access, Majority World, Pricing Changes
 Part 2: Strategic Analysis
◦ Consolidation, U...
Concluding Discussion
Constraints on Innovation
 Debt/Lack of capital
 Current cost structure
 Commitment to faculty
 Physical plant/sunk co...
The Change AgentChange agents as Linkers
 The main role of the change agent is to facilitate the flow of innovations from...
What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher
Education? Part 1
Increased
Productivity in Other
Sectors
Increased Cost of
High...
What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher
Education? Part 2
Decreasing Gov’t
Funding of Higher
Education
Sources: Archibal...
Understanding the For-Profit Business Model
Sources: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit H...
Comparing Business Models
 For Profit
◦ Revenue: $11,130 per student
◦ Instruction: 26%
 Private Nonprofit
◦ Revenue: $3...
Potential Ways for Traditional CHE to
Partner with City Vision
 Articulation Agreements
 Serving as a “skunkworks” for m...
Source: Our Kids, Robert Putnum
5 pt. decline
10 pt. decline
Gap Doubles
to 10 points
5 point
gap
Is a shortage of pastora...
Appendix
“Human history becomes more
and more a race between
education and catastrophe.”
- H.G. Wells
Image from Wikipedia
3 Quotes on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education
“Thirty years from now the big university
campuses will be relics.”
...
5. Cost: Increasing Cost of Higher Education
Increasing Cost of High Skilled Labor
Source: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (F...
Baumol’s Cost Disease in Concert Symphonies
Source: Webb, D. (2014, November 3). Baumol’s Cost Disease Is Killing Me! Retr...
The Race Between Education and Technology
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
1915-1980 1980-2005
An...
3. Growth of For Profits
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Inn...
Essential Elements of Christian Education
1. Christian worldview
2. Christian community
3. Christian content
4. Christian ...
Process for Modular Christian Education
Theology &
Christian Worldview
Audience, Pedagogy
& Goals
Christian Community & Me...
PCs
Mobile
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Mainframes
Traditional
Higher
Education
Low-
Volume
Online
Ed
For Profit
Higher Education
Disruptive Innovation Theory
High
Price
Onl...
Christian
Social Services
Radically Affordable
Socially Responsible
Christian Education
City Vision Strategy
Rescue Colleg...
Disruptive Innovation Theory
Image Source: Wikimedia
Online education is here
Cell Phones in 1983
Smart Phones: Disruptive Technology
Diamandis, P. H., & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think....
Changing Role of Workers & Consumers
Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meek
Changing Role of Workers & Consumers
KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meek
5. From Faculty Centric to Student Centric
Sharing Economy (Uber) Helps Students but Hurts Faculty
Regulators
InnovatorsIn...
Reimagining Role of Faculty
 Case Studies:
◦ Music industry, journalism, TED
 Find Research Funding or Find your “TED Ta...
The Opportunity Divide:
Mismatch of Jobs & Education
Jobs in
2018
People in
2012 Difference
Less than High
School 10% 12.4...
Growth of Jobs Requiring a Degree
Chart courtesy of Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce
Expected Lifetime Earnings by Education
Decline of Farm Jobs
21st Century Challenge: College Graduation
Changing our Educational Trajectory
Source: Lumina Foundation Vision
20th Century Challenge: High School Graduation
Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology...
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2025 2050 2075 2100
Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile
Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd...
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2025 2050 2075 2100
Difference in Projected Educational Attainment
Straight Li...
Figure 10. Educational Attainment by Birth Cohort
Figure 11. Percent of Population 25 Years and Over
Who Have Completed High School or College
University of Phoenix (2010)
Enrollment = 600,000
University of Phoenix (2015)
Enrollment = 215,000
Current Stage
of Online Education
LMS Stage Courseware Stage
Image Source: Wikimedia
Innovation Cycle of Online Education
Traditional Higher Education
Traditional Monastery
Higher Education Model
Local Christian
Community
Practical Work
Experie...
Re-bundling Online Education with
Church Study Groups & Internships
Local Discipleship &
Study Groups
Practical Work
Exper...
Possible Christian Models of Disruptive Innovation
 Christian Megauniversities
◦ Liberty, Grand Canyon
 Competency Based...
Free, Low-Cost Christian Courses
 Free or Open Christian Content Providers
◦ Open Biola, Covenant, Regent Luxvera, christ...
Strategy for Serving the Bottom Half
1. Radically Affordable
◦ Radical low cost and low/no debt
2. Ease of Access
◦ Locati...
Image Source: Wikimedia
Stage in Adoption Cycle for
Post-Secondary Degrees
US
Average
Global
Average
Top
Quartile
3rd
Quar...
4. Demographic Shifts:
The End of the Good Times
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education S...
Change High School Graduate by State
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to...
Demographic Shifts: Race/Ethnicity
Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2...
Debt: Distribution of Total Student Debt by
Level of Household Net Worth
The Problem with Only Credentialing
The 25th percentile for male college graduates has been about $4,000 to $5,000 more
th...
College Entrance, Completion & Persistence by Income Quartile
http://www.russellsage.org/research/chartbook/percentage-stu...
Growth of For Profit Education
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growt...
For Profits Dominate Age 22 and above
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education...
For Profits Dominate Black & Latino Students
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Ed...
For Profits Serve Disproportionately Female Students
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit H...
Average Revenue per Student
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, ...
Average Spending Per Student
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth,...
Instructional Spending by Type
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growt...
For Profits Get Disproportionally High Federal Aid
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Hig...
For Profits Highest Load Debt Per Student
Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Educa...
Figure 15. Percent of Church Growth by Region
Figure 16. Christian Membership by Region
Architectural Diagram of
Courseware Ecosystems
Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do
adaptive initiatives erode Christian
colleges’ strong mission orientation.
Unpublished Man...
Tier 3 Strategy
 Focus on scale
◦ Goal is to be able to price close to marginal cost per student
◦ Examples: College for ...
Idea 1. MOOC on Disruption in CHE
 Opportunity
◦ Publish a multimedia toolkit as a free MOOC Udacity
that change agents i...
Idea 2: Ultra-Low Cost Christian Associate’s Degree
 Opportunity
◦ Provide an Ultra-Low Cost ($3,000/year) Christian Asso...
Idea 3. Ultra-low Cost ($3k/yr) Christian
Business Degree for Developing Countries
 Opportunity
◦ We have partners lined ...
Method
Students
Mission and Methods
Mission
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
Source: Malik, K. (2013). Human development report 2013. The rise of the South: Human progress in a diverse world. The Ris...
Global Projection on Tertiary Education
(four scenerios)
Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: E...
International Partnership Pathway to a Degree
City Vision University BS
Degree in Business
Administration
Qualifi L5 Diplo...
Credentialed
Independent
Educational
Providers
(Straighterline,
Saylor)
Paid
Coursewar
e
(Pearson &
Mcgraw-Hill)
MOOCs &
F...
Growth of Jobs Requiring a Degree
Chart courtesy of Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce
62% of Job...
Who Has Jobs by Education?
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
Less Than High School
Diploma
Hig...
Expected Lifetime Earnings by Education
Chart courtesy of Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Dr...
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Dr...
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Dr...
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Dr...
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Dr...
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Dr...
Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Dr...
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
1
8
x
1
8
The Future of Employment Frey & Osbourne 2013
1
8
1
8
1
8
Overview
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 45.
10
Number of bachelor's degree recipients i...
Overview
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 46.
11
Number of master's degree recipients in ...
Overview
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 47.
12
Number of doctoral and first professiona...
Overview
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 48.
13
Number of associate's degree recipients ...
Bachelor's degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 50.
16
Number of bachelor's degrees ea...
Bachelor's degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 51.
17
Number of bachelor's degrees ea...
Bachelor's degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 52.
18
Number of bachelor's degrees ea...
Master's degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 53.
20
Number of master's degrees earned...
Master's degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 54.
21
Number of master's degrees earned...
Master's degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 55.
22
Number of master's degrees earned...
Doctoral and first professional degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 56.
24
Number of ...
Doctoral and first professional degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 57.
25
Number of ...
Doctoral and first professional degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 58.
26
Number of ...
Doctoral and first professional degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 59.
27
Number of ...
Doctoral and first professional degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 60.
28
Number of ...
Doctoral and first professional degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 61.
29
Number of ...
Doctoral and first professional degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 63.
31
Doctorate ...
Associate's degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 64.
33
Number of associate's degrees ...
Associate's degree
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 65.
34
Number of Associate's degrees ...
Characteristics of graduates
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 66.
36
Employment and educa...
Characteristics of graduates
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 68.
38
Average earning incr...
Characteristics of graduates
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 69.
39
Median starting sala...
Characteristics of graduates
Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 70.
40
Median student debt ...
Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education for Christian College Presidents CCCU
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Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education for Christian College Presidents CCCU

  1. 1. Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu 617-282-9798 x101 Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education
  2. 2. Part 1: About City Vision Christian Education for the Bottom Half and the Majority World
  3. 3. Source: (US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2014) 47% of employment in America is at high risk of being automated away over the next decade or two (Frey & Osborne, 2013)
  4. 4. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2025 2050 2075 2093 Straight Line Projection Growth Degree Attainment (USA) Access is Dominant Narrative for 21st Century
  5. 5. The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education. (2015, January). Indicators of Higher Education Equity in the United States 45 Year Trend Report. http://www.pellinstitute.org/ City Vision’s Focus: the Bottom Half 37 pt. growth 3 pt. growth 6 pt. growth 19 pt. growth Traditional College Focus City Vision’s Focus (Disruptive Innovation Opportunity)
  6. 6. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2025 2050 2075 2100 Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd Quartile Bottom Quartile City Vision’s Focus (Disruptive Innovation Opportunity)
  7. 7. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2025 2050 2075 2100 Difference in Projected Educational Attainment Straight Line Projection No Change in Growth Rate of Bottom 3 Quartiles
  8. 8. About City Vision University  History: Started Rescue College in 1998 as a Program of AGRM, DEAC Accreditation in 2005, Transferred to TechMission (nonprofit) in 2008  Degrees ◦ Bachelor’s in Nonprofit Management, Addictions Studies, Missions, Business (soon) ◦ Master’s in Technology and Ministry  Statistics ◦ More than 80% of students eligible for Pell ◦ About a 60% graduation rate ◦ Cumulative 91% job placement rate ◦ Tripled enrollment since 2008 (50 to 150 students)  Goal is to be Radically Affordable ◦ Undiscounted tuition $6,000/year undergrad and $9,000 grad school ◦ $3,000/year in developing countries
  9. 9. Global Opportunity 100 Million Students in 2000 263 Million Students in 2025 (84% of growth in the developing world) Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572. Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf 137 Million New Students Per Year in Developing Countries by 2025
  10. 10. City Vision’s International Strategy  2015 ◦ $3,000/year business degree to developing countries  2016 ◦ Launch new $3,000/year associate’s degree  2017 ◦ Target: 1,000+ students in developing countries  2020 and beyond ◦ Drop tuition to $2,000 ◦ Target: 10k+ students
  11. 11. City Vision Cost Strategy  Automate everything but faculty interaction ◦ SIS: Homegrown in Salesforce ◦ LMS: Moodle ◦ Enrollment: use off the shelf marketing automation tools  Course Content ◦ Self-Developed 50%: (Junior, Senior) ◦ Outsource 50%: (Freshmen, Sophomore, Saylor, Straighterline, Paid Courseware vendors, MOOCs, open content)  Personnel ◦ Use adjunct faculty/practitioners in low cost of living areas ◦ Minimal staff and staff salaries  Marginal cost per student ◦ Currently less than $3,000/year ◦ Need to scale to cover fixed recurring cost
  12. 12. Part 2. Strategic Analysis Change Agent Change Agency Your Institution
  13. 13. Christianity (Following Jesus) 1. Education for the bottom half/majority world 2. Unbundling 3. Education on Demand 4. Student Centered vs. Faculty Centered 5. Non-Western Growth 1. Economics of Online Education 2. Christian Mega-Universities 3. Cultural & Demographic Shifts 4. Increasing Costs Sustainability Challenges to Christian Higher Education in the USA (paradigms)
  14. 14. 1. Economics of Online Education 1. Online marginal cost per student at scale (10,000+ online students) is likely between $500-3,000/year 2. Online education opens up competition independent of geography 3. Online education is a platform business where you pay “rent” to be visible (20-30% of revenue) 4. Dominant characteristic of online education is consolidation 13% of students are online only 9% are in for-profit institutions Sources: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University Ambient Insight
  15. 15. • Higher education overall, about 222 schools make up one-third of enrollment. • Top 20 largest online schools account for one-third of online market. Source: Online Higher Education Market Update - Eduventures. (n.d.). Retrieved March 16, 2015, from http://www.eduventures.com/insights/online-higher-education-market-update/ 1. Online Education = Consolidation Go Big or Go Home
  16. 16. 2. Christian Mega-universities & Growth Liberty U 43% Grand Canyon U 39% All of CCCU 18% Estimated Growth Since 2005 Total Growth: 175,808 students Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.
  17. 17. Disruption & Five Forces Model Competitiv e Rivalry Threat of New Entry Buyer Power Threat of Substitut es Supplier Power Decreased by: • Faculty overcapacity • Uberization of Adjuncts • Unbundling components • Commoditized Content & OER Increased Alternatives to Campus Education: • Online, Blended & CBE Degrees • Non-degree programs • Employer Analytics • Overcapacity Dramatically Increased by: • National competition online • Global competition Increased by: • Standardization • Unbunding degrees
  18. 18. Christianity 1. Educating the bottom half/Non-western Growth 2. Unbundling 3. Cradle to grave Christian education ecosystem 4. Education on demand (Race with the machine) 1. Economics of Online Education 2. Mega-Universities 3. US Cultural & Demographic Shifts 4. Increasing Costs Sustainability Challenges to Christian Higher Education in the USA (paradigms)
  19. 19. Paradigm 2. Unbundling of the Computer Industry Source: Only the Paranoid Survive, Andy Grove
  20. 20. U of A U of B Virtually Integrated University Univ. Unbundled University MOOCs Open Ed Resources Study Groups Contracted Courses Adjunct Faculty Faculty Networks Churches Internship Univ. Univ. Univ. Research Lab Corporations Individuals Open Content Publishers Self- Publish Univ. Student Community Faculty Community Course Materials Content Knowledge Discovery Paradigm 2. The Unbundled University Churches U of C U of D Student Community Faculty Community Course Materials Content Knowledge Discovery
  21. 21. City Vision’s Strategy: Bridging MOOCs & Open Ed with Community Partners City Vision Credentialed Independent Educational Providers (Straighterline, Saylor) Paid Courseware (Pearson & Mcgraw- Hill) MOOCs & Free Open Education Resources Christian Open Education & Paid Courseware Internship Sites (70+ sites) Employer Paid Tuition Credit Partnership s (Bible Institutes, Missions) Discipleship Study Centers (in churches & ministries) Qualification Training Centers (Ofqual, EQF) Content Partners Community Partners (B2B segments) See detailed industry map on next slide
  22. 22. Christian(Jesus) Community Colleges MOOCs & Open Ed Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn Open2study, Udemy, Khan Academy, Alison, YouTube, iTunesU, Open Learn, OLI Christian Mega Universities Liberty, Grand Canyon Affordable Tech Sector Christian Innovation Sector Affordable Christian SectorKey: Black Accredited. Orange Content Provider Green Community Partners Competency Based Western Governors College for America State Colleges Christian Universities in Developing Countries daystar.ac.ke Paid Courseware Pearson, Mcgraw-Hill, Lynda.com, Skillshare, Pluralsight Affordable Bible Colleges ABHE Schools Online Christian Universities ACE Credit Straighterline, Saylor, Ed4Online EdX, JumpCourse, Pearson, Sofia UC Irvine Extension, Dream Degree Christian Open Ed ChristianCourses.com, Open Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Openseminary.com BiblicalTraining.org, Harvestime.org, http://thirdmill.org Christian CEU Providers insight.org/CEU, lifepointemedia.com, lifeway.com/ceu, livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/, precept.org/ceu, sampsonresources.com, www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu, www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses, www.bsfinternational.org/studies, hristiancounselingceu.com Paid Christian Wholesale Course Providers Knowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh, connect.ligonier.org, onlinesbs.org/esbs/ Bible Institutes TUMI, NYDS Open Textbooks saylor.org/books, openstaxcollege.org, courses.candelalearning.com/catalog/lumen collegeopentextbooks.org, open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/ Missions/Ministry Training Mission Year, YWAM U Nations, IHOP U Developing Country Tech Kepler.org, Avu.edu, elearningafrica.com, Coursera Learning Hub, MIT Ulabs, U of People, Pearson Affordable Learning Training Centers Qualifications Providers Industry Map Higher Ed in Developing Countries Christian Employers Employer Paid Tuition Partners Internship Sites 70+ Ministries Discipleship Study Centers (in churches and ministries)
  23. 23. What business has the most locations in the USA? 14,146 25,900 Sources: http://hirr.hartsem.edu/research/fastfacts/fast_facts.html http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/05/04/24-7-wall-st-most-popular-stores/8614949/ 314,000 What institution has the most locations in the USA?
  24. 24. City Vision Educational Philosophy Online Education Local Discipleship Study Groups: Life Change Internships: Skills & Practical Work Experience
  25. 25. Part 3. Strategic Recommendations
  26. 26. Three Visions for Future Growth of HE 1. Government ◦ Universal Community College, Nationalized Higher Education: Obamacare for Higher Education ◦ Government mega-universities: 1 million+ students ◦ Problem: increases secularizing influence of government education 2. Global Educational Conglomerate ◦ 50% of “degrees” globally by 2050 may come from 3-4 tech companies offering free education with a small payment for the credential ◦ Problem: Likely to follow same secularizing tendency as media conglomerates 3. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education ◦ Innovators learn to build modularly on 1 & 2 to expand Christian market share in post-secondary education Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
  27. 27. Future of Higher Education 2035  Tier 1: The Elite ◦ Serve top 5-10% students, tuition >$100k/year (in 2015 dollars) ◦ Analogy: New York Times, Economist  Tier 2: High Quality, Moderate Cost ◦ 50% in bankruptcy or merged, tuition $50-100k/year, high touch ◦ Analogy: Physical Retail, Cable TV, Phone Companies, Organic Farming  Tier 3: Good Enough Quality, Low Cost ◦ 100k+ students or niche, tuition $100-$5,000/year ◦ Analogy: Huffington Post, Netflix, Skype, niche ecommerce  Tier 4: Courseware Ecosystem Small Businesses ◦ Sell apps, courses, educational content, books, certificates, student services, videos, etc. ◦ Analogy: eBay/Amazon merchants, bloggers, self-publishers, app developers  Tier 5: Courseware platforms ◦ 100’s of millions or billions of students, LinkedIn/Lynda.com Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
  28. 28. How to Survive the Coming Storm: Lessons from Industry Case Studies 1. Innovate, increase operational effectiveness and scale. ◦ Retail & ecommerce, Farming 2. Offer both/and products to compete. ◦ Cable TV’s Video on Demand vs. Netflix 3. Be more like innovators while retaining your strengths. ◦ Journalism & News: New York Times 4. Invest in digital growth not physical growth. ◦ Blockbuster vs. Netflix 5. Outcompete rather than withdraw. ◦ Dominance of Christian radio vs. early Christian response to Hollywood Source: Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University
  29. 29. Components Packaged in a Traditional College Source: Michael Staton, “Disaggregating the Components of a College Degree,” American Enterprise Institute, August 2, 2012, http://www.aei.org/files/2012/08/01/-disaggregating-the-components-of-a-college-degree_184521175818.pdf The Core Competencies of Christian Education are the Hardest to Replace (Life Transformation & Meta-Content)
  30. 30. Paradigm 3: View Christian education as a cradle to grave ecosystem. Nearly Free Content & Innovation Christian College (Life Transformation) + Better Than Government Subsidized State University In a platform world, how do we make the entire Christian education ecosystem/platform more competitive? Innovation + Life Transformation Has Growing Competitive Advantage over Government Subsidy
  31. 31. Automation and Bloom’s Taxonomy Becoming Commoditized • Freshman • Sophomore • High School Core Competency • Grad School • Senior • Junior Strategy:MigrateUp Race with the machine not against the machine Strategy Accelerated education with automation Strategy Double Down
  32. 32. BloomsTaxonomyLevel Low Level Blooms High Level Blooms Subjectivity of Assessment Objective Assessments Subjective Assessments Most Subject to Commoditization & Automation Most Dependent on People
  33. 33. Paradigm 4. Education on Demand: Accelerate Education with Automation  Expand “Courses on Demand” freshmen/sophomore options ◦ Adaptive, competency based courses ◦ Prior learning/test out credit  Dual Enrollment for Christian High School Students ◦ Bluefield College: $135/course ◦ Commoditizing lower levels of Bloom’s taxonomy (Christian high school) becomes marketing investment for student acquisition  Add value through new 4th year ◦ Internships ◦ Study abroad ◦ 4-year Bachelor’s/Master’s program
  34. 34. Further Recommendations 1. Invest in marketing ◦ Facilities expense is scaled back to be replaced by marketing expense (rent paid to tech ecosystems) 2. Create an independent skunkworks division ◦ “New wine in new wineskins” ◦ Conduct “lean startup” experiments to determine where to focus ◦ Fund an independent division to provide low-cost online education. i.e. College for America, APU’s University College, Eastern’s Esperanza, YourSchoolNameX 3. Develop plan to cut cost by 50% by 2035 ◦ Scale back building plans to what is essential ◦ Limit ancillary activities ◦ Reinvest revenue from online programs in their growth and quality, rather than using them only to sustain on-campus programs.
  35. 35. Potential Scenario: 2035-2050  Global Scenario ◦ 10 times growth in Christian education globally ◦ 90% of degrees are in non-western countries ◦ Majority of the world receives degrees/credentials that are nearly free  US Scenario ◦ Loss of government subsidies in public higher education means many state schools cannot compete in a competitive market ◦ Christian schools experience dramatic increase in market share relative to public higher education ◦ Christian higher education experiences major consolidation ◦ Christian schools lose some market share to free services provided on tech platforms (like LinkedIn, Google, Apple, Amazon & Microsoft) ◦ 70% of Americans receive a degree with growth primarily coming from low-cost providers
  36. 36. Summary: Key Takeaways 1. Access is the dominant story for higher education in the 21st century 2. Economics & technology are driving consolidation 3. Best strategy is to create a skunkworks 4. Second best strategy is to “race with the machines” not against by gaining core competencies in technology 5. View Christian education as a cradle to grave ecosystem
  37. 37. Supreme Court Decision and Strategic Implications of Prospect of Losing Federal Aid Bottom Half Strategy  Job prep/RoI focus  Increase automation  Christian ecosystem  More international focus  Focus on scale  Could benefit from CBE  More focus on the poor Lose Federal Aid Strategy  Job prep/RoI Focus  Increase automation  Christian ecosystem  More international focus  Focus on scale  CBE likely to allow CHE  More focus on the rich Developing a bottom-half strategy also prepares for a world without federal aid.
  38. 38. Tools to Help Change Agents  Tools for Flipped Classroom Discussion Groups with faculty and staff at your institution: ◦ YouTube Playlist: http://goo.gl/6Wptak (includes this talk) ◦ Udemy MOOC on Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education: Coming soon As educators the primary thing we can do is to educate those who have the power to bring change.
  39. 39. For More Information  Dissertation: “Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education and the Poor.” goo.gl/nzkhRP ◦ Bibliography: https://www.zotero.org/andrewsears/items  Slideshare for this talk: http://goo.gl/4dQggf  Website: www.cityvision.edu  LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears  Contact: andrew@cityvision.edu 617-282-9798 x101
  40. 40. Suggested Reading  Horn, M. B., Staker, H., & Christensen, C. M. (2014). Blended: Using Disruptive Innovation to Improve Schools (1 edition). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.  Khan, S. (2013). The One World Schoolhouse: Education Reimagined (Reprint edition). New York: Twelve.  Christensen, C., Johnson, C. W., & Horn, M. B. (2010). Disrupting Class, Expanded Edition: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns (2nd ed.). McGraw-Hill.  DeMillo, R. A. (2011). Abelard to Apple: the fate of American colleges and universities. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.  Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses (First Edition). Crown Business.  Carey, K. (2015). The End of College: Creating the Future of Learning and the University of Everywhere. New York: Riverhead Books.  Christensen, C. M., & Raynor, M. E. (2003). The Innovator’s Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth (1 edition). Boston, Mass: Harvard Business School Press.  Craig, R. (2015). College Disrupted: The Great Unbundling of Higher Education. New York: Palgrave Macmillan Trade.  McCluskey, F. B., & Winter, M. L. (2012). The Idea of the Digital University: Ancient Traditions, Disruptive Technologies and the Battle for the Soul of Higher Education. Policy Studies Organization.  Selingo, J. J. (2013). College (un)bound: the future of higher education and what it means for students. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
  41. 41. Discussion  Part 1: Bottom Half ◦ Access, Majority World, Pricing Changes  Part 2: Strategic Analysis ◦ Consolidation, Unbundling, Content is Free  Part 3: Strategic Recommendations ◦ Future: Gov’t, Corporate, Tier 2 (CCCU), Tier 3 (City Vision) ◦ Christian ecosystem ◦ On Demand, CBE, Adaptive, Accelerated Ed ◦ Transformation/meta-content vs. commoditized content ◦ Skunkworks, Change AgentsDr. Andrew Sears
  42. 42. Concluding Discussion
  43. 43. Constraints on Innovation  Debt/Lack of capital  Current cost structure  Commitment to faculty  Physical plant/sunk cost  Political realities  Lack of core competency in innovation  Missional constraints  Outdated underlying worldview/myths
  44. 44. The Change AgentChange agents as Linkers  The main role of the change agent is to facilitate the flow of innovations from a change agency to an audience of clients  Change agents usually possess a high degree of expertise regarding the innovations that are being diffused The sequence of Change Agent Roles 1. To develop a need for change on the part of clients 2. To establish an information exchange relationship 3. To diagnose problems 4. To create an intent to change in the client 5. To translate intentions into action 6. To stabilize adoption and prevent discontinuance 7. To achieve a terminal relationship with clients A Change Agent’s relative success in securing the adoption of innovations by clients is positively related to: 1. The extent of the change agent’s effort in contacting clients 2. A client orientation rather than a change agency orientation 3. The degree to which the diffusion program is compatible with clients’ needs 4. The change agent’s empathy with clients 5. His or her homophily with clients 6. Credibility in the clients’ eyes 7. The extent to which he or she works through opinion leaders 8. Increasing clients’ ability to evaluate innovations Source: Diffusion of Innovation, Chapter 9, Everett Rogers, Slide/Graphic from: http://goo.gl/gQlFtB Change Agent Change Agency Your School
  45. 45. What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 1 Increased Productivity in Other Sectors Increased Cost of High Skilled Labor = Increase Costs of Faculty & Senior Administration Increased • standardized tests • large lectures • teaching assistants • administrative staff • adjuncts Symptoms to CopeUnderlying Cause 1 Baumol’s Cost Disease Economics of Superstars Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University There was a 60 times increase in productivity from 1500-2000. Higher Education has not seen this much productivity increase.
  46. 46. What is Driving Increasing Cost in Higher Education? Part 2 Decreasing Gov’t Funding of Higher Education Sources: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA. Disruptive Innovation in Christian Higher Education, Andrew Sears, Doctoral Dissertation, 2014, Bakke University Creates Prisoners dilemma arms race on investing in capital projects.
  47. 47. Understanding the For-Profit Business Model Sources: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf http://www.help.senate.gov/imo/media/for_profit_report/PartII/GrandCanyon.pdf Marketing $3,389 35% Profit $1,848 19% Instruction $2,177 22% Other $2,295 24% For Profit Expenses (Grand Canyon) Private Nonprofit: 32%
  48. 48. Comparing Business Models  For Profit ◦ Revenue: $11,130 per student ◦ Instruction: 26%  Private Nonprofit ◦ Revenue: $37,869 per student ◦ Instruction: 33% ◦ Research: 12.5%  Public ◦ Revenue: $18,922 per student ◦ Instruction: 28% ◦ Research: 14% Source: Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1). Retrieved from http://heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/29010.pdf
  49. 49. Potential Ways for Traditional CHE to Partner with City Vision  Articulation Agreements  Serving as a “skunkworks” for multiple schools  City Vision as a Christian Community College feeder school (Associate’s degrees) ◦ Opens up new markets for low-income and international schools  Your faculty volunteer to support City Vision’s development of ultra low cost degree program  Informal diffusion of innovation partnerships  Consulting
  50. 50. Source: Our Kids, Robert Putnum 5 pt. decline 10 pt. decline Gap Doubles to 10 points 5 point gap Is a shortage of pastoral leadership among the poor affecting their church attendance?
  51. 51. Appendix
  52. 52. “Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe.” - H.G. Wells Image from Wikipedia
  53. 53. 3 Quotes on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education “Thirty years from now the big university campuses will be relics.” - Peter Drucker, 1997 “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” - Amara’s Law (Roy Amara) “In 15 years from now half of US universities may be in bankruptcy.” - Clayton Christensen, 2013 Image Source: Wikimedia
  54. 54. 5. Cost: Increasing Cost of Higher Education
  55. 55. Increasing Cost of High Skilled Labor Source: Archibald, R. B., & Feldman, D. H. (2010). Why Does College Cost So Much? (First Edition edition). Oxford, U.K. ; New York: Oxford University Press, USA.
  56. 56. Baumol’s Cost Disease in Concert Symphonies Source: Webb, D. (2014, November 3). Baumol’s Cost Disease Is Killing Me! Retrieved from http://www.clydefitchreport.com/2014/11/cost-disease-opera-labor-arts-inflation/
  57. 57. The Race Between Education and Technology -4.00% -3.00% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 1915-1980 1980-2005 AnnualGrowth Growth Supply of Degrees Jobs Lost Now Requiring Degrees Education > Tech Job Loss
  58. 58. 3. Growth of For Profits Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  59. 59. Essential Elements of Christian Education 1. Christian worldview 2. Christian community 3. Christian content 4. Christian care for stakeholders
  60. 60. Process for Modular Christian Education Theology & Christian Worldview Audience, Pedagogy & Goals Christian Community & Meta Content Christian Courses Theology Courses Secular Courseware Secular MOOCs & Open Education Resources Subjects
  61. 61. PCs Mobile Disruptive Innovation Theory Mainframes
  62. 62. Traditional Higher Education Low- Volume Online Ed For Profit Higher Education Disruptive Innovation Theory High Price Online Ed Radically Affordable & Accessible Online Ed Community College
  63. 63. Christian Social Services Radically Affordable Socially Responsible Christian Education City Vision Strategy Rescue College Urban Missions 1998-2007 City Vision College 2008-14 City Vision University 2015 -
  64. 64. Disruptive Innovation Theory Image Source: Wikimedia Online education is here
  65. 65. Cell Phones in 1983
  66. 66. Smart Phones: Disruptive Technology Diamandis, P. H., & Kotler, S. (2012). Abundance: The future is better than you think. New York: Free Press. p. 289 “People with a smart phone today can access tools that would have cost thousands a few decades ago.”
  67. 67. Changing Role of Workers & Consumers Source: KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meek
  68. 68. Changing Role of Workers & Consumers KPCB Internet Trends 2015, Mary Meek
  69. 69. 5. From Faculty Centric to Student Centric Sharing Economy (Uber) Helps Students but Hurts Faculty Regulators InnovatorsIncumbents Students Faculty
  70. 70. Reimagining Role of Faculty  Case Studies: ◦ Music industry, journalism, TED  Find Research Funding or Find your “TED Talk” ◦ Start with your “Idea Worth Spreading”  Read Platform, The Startup of You and The Alliance  Establish your platform across multi-format and multi-channel revenue sources ◦ Spread ideas horizontally across different media and markets ◦ Teaching, consulting, writing, blogging, etc.
  71. 71. The Opportunity Divide: Mismatch of Jobs & Education Jobs in 2018 People in 2012 Difference Less than High School 10% 12.42% -2.4% High School Degree 28% 30.72% -2.7% Some College 12% 16.97% -5.0% Associate’s Degree 17% 9.45% 7.6% Bachelor’s Degree 23% 19.49% 3.5% Graduate Degree 10% 10.95% -0.9%
  72. 72. Growth of Jobs Requiring a Degree Chart courtesy of Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce
  73. 73. Expected Lifetime Earnings by Education
  74. 74. Decline of Farm Jobs
  75. 75. 21st Century Challenge: College Graduation
  76. 76. Changing our Educational Trajectory Source: Lumina Foundation Vision
  77. 77. 20th Century Challenge: High School Graduation Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  78. 78. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2025 2050 2075 2100 Straight Line Projection By Income Quartile Top Quartile 3nd Quartile 2nd Quartile Bottom Quartile 21st Century Disruptive Innovation Opportunity City Vision’s Focus Focus of Traditional Christian Higher Education
  79. 79. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2025 2050 2075 2100 Difference in Projected Educational Attainment Straight Line Projection No Change in Growth Rate of Bottom 3 Quartiles
  80. 80. Figure 10. Educational Attainment by Birth Cohort
  81. 81. Figure 11. Percent of Population 25 Years and Over Who Have Completed High School or College
  82. 82. University of Phoenix (2010) Enrollment = 600,000
  83. 83. University of Phoenix (2015) Enrollment = 215,000
  84. 84. Current Stage of Online Education LMS Stage Courseware Stage Image Source: Wikimedia Innovation Cycle of Online Education
  85. 85. Traditional Higher Education Traditional Monastery Higher Education Model Local Christian Community Practical Work ExperienceStudents “Close” to Instructor Distant From Students
  86. 86. Re-bundling Online Education with Church Study Groups & Internships Local Discipleship & Study Groups Practical Work Experience Distant From Students Instructor
  87. 87. Possible Christian Models of Disruptive Innovation  Christian Megauniversities ◦ Liberty, Grand Canyon  Competency Based Education ◦ Lipscomb University, DePaul University, Antioch School of Church Planting  Radically New Education Models ◦ Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, City Vision  Christian Open Education (next slide)  Investment and Outsourcing Companies ◦ Significant Systems, Capital Education Group, Bisk Education  Global Innovators ◦ Global University  Course Vendors & Clearinghouses ◦ Knowledge Elements, Bible Mesh, Learning House
  88. 88. Free, Low-Cost Christian Courses  Free or Open Christian Content Providers ◦ Open Biola, Covenant, Regent Luxvera, christianuniversity.org , Christian Leaders Institute, BiblicalTraining.org, harvestime.org  Aggregators of Christian Course Content: ◦ iTunes, Udemy, Alison.com, YouTube, Vimeo  Low Cost Christian CEU Providers ◦ www.insight.org/CEU, www.lifepointemedia.com, www.lifeway.com/ceu, livingontheedge.org/home/acsi/, www.precept.org/ceu, www.sampsonresources.com, www.sampson.ed.com, www.walkthru.org/ceu, www.answersingenesis.or/cec/courses, www.bsfinternational.org/studies , christiancounselingceu.com  Paid Course Material Wholesale Providers ◦ Knowledge Elements, Logos Mobile Ed, Right Now Media, Bible Mesh, connect.ligonier.org, CUGN.org
  89. 89. Strategy for Serving the Bottom Half 1. Radically Affordable ◦ Radical low cost and low/no debt 2. Ease of Access ◦ Location, Time, Working Students, Mobile 3. Remedial education available if needed ◦ Adaptive for students at any level 4. Cultural fit ◦ Adult Friendly, No Assimilation
  90. 90. Image Source: Wikimedia Stage in Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees US Average Global Average Top Quartile 3rd Quartile 1st & 2nd Quartile
  91. 91. 4. Demographic Shifts: The End of the Good Times Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
  92. 92. Change High School Graduate by State Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
  93. 93. Demographic Shifts: Race/Ethnicity Source: Hussar, W. J., & Bailey, T. M. (2014). Projections of Education Statistics to 2022. NCES 2014-051. National Center for Education Statistics.
  94. 94. Debt: Distribution of Total Student Debt by Level of Household Net Worth
  95. 95. The Problem with Only Credentialing The 25th percentile for male college graduates has been about $4,000 to $5,000 more than the median male high school graduate in recent years, whereas among women, the gap has recently been around $2,000. Source: http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/09/college-may-not-pay-off-for-everyone.html#.VUJT69LF8ep
  96. 96. College Entrance, Completion & Persistence by Income Quartile http://www.russellsage.org/research/chartbook/percentage-students-entering-and-completing-college-and-college-persistence-incom
  97. 97. Growth of For Profit Education Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  98. 98. For Profits Dominate Age 22 and above Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  99. 99. For Profits Dominate Black & Latino Students Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  100. 100. For Profits Serve Disproportionately Female Students Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  101. 101. Average Revenue per Student Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  102. 102. Average Spending Per Student Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  103. 103. Instructional Spending by Type Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  104. 104. For Profits Get Disproportionally High Federal Aid Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  105. 105. For Profits Highest Load Debt Per Student Bennett, D. L., Lucchesi, A. R., & Vedder, R. K. (2010). For-Profit Higher Education: Growth, Innovation and Regulation. Center for College Affordability and Productivity (NJ1).
  106. 106. Figure 15. Percent of Church Growth by Region
  107. 107. Figure 16. Christian Membership by Region
  108. 108. Architectural Diagram of Courseware Ecosystems
  109. 109. Source. Erickson, T. (2004). Do adaptive initiatives erode Christian colleges’ strong mission orientation. Unpublished Manuscript, Anderson University, Anderson, IN. http://www.cbfa.org/Erickson.pdf Environmental (adaptive) vs. Internally-Driven (interpretive) Strategy
  110. 110. Tier 3 Strategy  Focus on scale ◦ Goal is to be able to price close to marginal cost per student ◦ Examples: College for America, Megauniversities  Use lean startup methodology to innovate ◦ Lean marketing, lean course development, growth hacking ◦ Bi-cultural across tech and education with tech dominant  Cut cost ◦ fast follower ◦ build on courseware platforms ◦ partner with low-income communities & developing countries ◦ highly automate back-office functions  Disrupt yourself strategically ◦ At lowest levels of education and in untapped markets
  111. 111. Idea 1. MOOC on Disruption in CHE  Opportunity ◦ Publish a multimedia toolkit as a free MOOC Udacity that change agents in CHE could use to generate discussion on their campuses  Plan ◦ Extend material from Andrew Sears’ presentation and dissertation into an open online course (more adaptable than a book) ◦ Include content from leading CHE institutions (like George Fox U, etc.)  Funding Proposal ◦ $10k-20k to fund course development & marketing
  112. 112. Idea 2: Ultra-Low Cost Christian Associate’s Degree  Opportunity ◦ Provide an Ultra-Low Cost ($3,000/year) Christian Associate’s Degree targeting US market to Serve as Feeder to CCCU Schools (functioning like an Online Christian Community College)  Plan ◦ Expand overall CHE market by providing new pricing level ◦ Provide alternative to Community college system that provides less than 1% transfer rate to Christian schools ◦ Help identify top tier students from lower-income backgrounds to transfer to Christian universities ◦ Utilize free Christian materials (like Our Daily Bread University)  Funding Proposal ◦ $20k-50k for course development + $20k-$50k for marketing
  113. 113. Idea 3. Ultra-low Cost ($3k/yr) Christian Business Degree for Developing Countries  Opportunity ◦ We have partners lined up to deliver 1,000+ students within 2 years, and we could use seed capital to ramp up now in preparation  Plan ◦ Need to hire dean and support staff now to ramp up ◦ See attached degree summary  Funding Proposal ◦ Could use $100k to $500k as a grant or an evergreen loan
  114. 114. Method Students Mission and Methods Mission
  115. 115. Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
  116. 116. Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
  117. 117. Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
  118. 118. Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
  119. 119. Source: http://www.gmi.org/infographics/missiographic-ChristianHigherEdInternationally.jpg
  120. 120. Source: Malik, K. (2013). Human development report 2013. The rise of the South: Human progress in a diverse world. The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World (March 15, 2013). UNDP-HDRO Human Development Reports. Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/14/hdr2013_en_complete.pdf Global Projection on Tertiary Education (baseline and optimistic)
  121. 121. Global Projection on Tertiary Education (four scenerios) Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf
  122. 122. International Partnership Pathway to a Degree City Vision University BS Degree in Business Administration Qualifi L5 Diploma in Business Enterprise or Management Qualifi L4 Certificate in Business Management Qualifi Saylor International Foundation Year City Vision University BS Degree in Addiction Studies Qualifi L5 Diploma in Health and Social Care Qualifi L4 Certificate Health and Social Care National A Level or L3 DiplomaLevel 3 University Degree Level 4 Level 5 or or or or
  123. 123. Credentialed Independent Educational Providers (Straighterline, Saylor) Paid Coursewar e (Pearson & Mcgraw-Hill) MOOCs & Free Open Education Resources Christian Courseware (free & paid) Online Delivery Providers Corporate Education Nonprofits, NGOs and Faith-Based Training Centers For-Profit Training Centers Independent Educational Providers Delivery Partners Credit Recommendatio nServices (ACE, NCCRS) Credit by Exam (CLEP, DSST, AP, IB, Excelsior, TECEP) Qualification Provider (Ofqual, EQF, national vocational framework) Professsional Certifications Credential Providers City Vision Credit Partnerships (Prior Learning Assessment, ACE & Testing) Discipleship Study Centers (in churches & ministries) Families & Home Schools Degree Completion Providers
  124. 124. Growth of Jobs Requiring a Degree Chart courtesy of Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce 62% of Jobs Require College
  125. 125. Who Has Jobs by Education? 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% Less Than High School Diploma High School Graduate Some College or Associate's Bachelor's Degree Source: StLouisFed FRED. May 2015
  126. 126. Expected Lifetime Earnings by Education Chart courtesy of Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce
  127. 127. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  128. 128. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  129. 129. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  130. 130. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  131. 131. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  132. 132. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  133. 133. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  134. 134. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  135. 135. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  136. 136. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  137. 137. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  138. 138. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  139. 139. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  140. 140. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  141. 141. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  142. 142. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  143. 143. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  144. 144. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  145. 145. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  146. 146. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  147. 147. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  148. 148. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  149. 149. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  150. 150. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  151. 151. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  152. 152. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  153. 153. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  154. 154. Source: Putnam, R. D. (2015). Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis. New York: Simon & Schuster.
  155. 155. Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.
  156. 156. Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.
  157. 157. Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.
  158. 158. Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.
  159. 159. Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.
  160. 160. Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.
  161. 161. Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2011). Race Against The Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy. Digital Frontier Press.
  162. 162. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  163. 163. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  164. 164. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  165. 165. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  166. 166. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  167. 167. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  168. 168. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  169. 169. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  170. 170. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  171. 171. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  172. 172. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  173. 173. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  174. 174. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  175. 175. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  176. 176. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  177. 177. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  178. 178. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  179. 179. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  180. 180. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  181. 181. Source: Goldin, C., & Katz, L. F. (2010). The Race between Education and Technology. Cambridge, Mass.: Belknap Press.
  182. 182. 1 8
  183. 183. x 1 8
  184. 184. The Future of Employment Frey & Osbourne 2013 1 8
  185. 185. 1 8
  186. 186. 1 8
  187. 187. Overview Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 45. 10 Number of bachelor's degree recipients in the United States from 1870 to 2024 (in 1,000) Number of bachelor's degree recipients in the U.S. 1870-2024 Note: United States; 1870 to 2012 Source: NCES; ID 238164 9.37 12.9 15.54 27.41 37.2 48.62 122.48 186.5 432.06 392.44 792.32 929.42 1,051.34 1,160.13 1,237.88 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 Number of recipients in thousand
  188. 188. Overview Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 46. 11 Number of master's degree recipients in the United States from 1880 to 2024 (in 1,000) Number of master's degree recipients in the U.S. 1880-2024 Note: United States; 1880 to 2012 Source: NCES; ID 238236 0.88 1.02 1.58 2.11 4.28 14.97 26.73 58.18 74.44 213.59 305.2 330.15 403.61 463.19 473.5 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2001 Number of recipients in thousands
  189. 189. Overview Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 47. 12 Number of doctoral and first professional degree recipients in the United States from 1870 to 2024 Number of doctoral and first professional degree recipients in the U.S. 1870-2024 Note: United States; 1870 to 2012 Source: NCES; ID 238243 1 54 149 382 443 615 2,299 3,290 6,420 9,829 59,486 95,631 103,508 114,266 118,736 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 Number of recipients
  190. 190. Overview Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 48. 13 Number of associate's degree recipients in the United States from 1970 to 2024 (in 1,000) Number of associate's degree recipients in the U.S. 1970-2024 Note: United States; 1970 to 2012 Source: NCES; ID 238249 206.02 400.91 455.1 539.69 564.93 578.87 595.13 634.02 665.3 696.66 713.07 728.11 750.16 787.33 849.45 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Number of recipients in thousand
  191. 191. Bachelor's degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 50. 16 Number of bachelor's degrees earned in the United States from 1950 to 2024, by gender (in 1,000) Bachelor's degrees earned in the United States by gender 1950-2024 Note: United States; 1950-2012 Source: NCES; ID 185157 103.22 138.38 341.22 364 387 404 418 418.09 421 424 434 444 456 465 328.84 254.06 451.1 476 501 518 527 504.84 505 496 487 477 474 470 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1950 1960 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Number of degrees in thousands Year Female Male
  192. 192. Bachelor's degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 51. 17 Number of bachelor's degrees earned in the United States by ethnic group in 2013 Bachelor's degrees earned in the United States by ethnic group 2013 Note: United States; 2012-2013 Source: US Department of Education; NCES; ID 185302 1,221,576 191,180 186,650 130,144 11,445 34,338 64,831 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 White Black Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander American Indian/Alaskan Native Two or more races Nonresident alien Numberofdegrees
  193. 193. Bachelor's degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 52. 18 Number of bachelor's degrees earned in the United States in 2012/13, by field of research Bachelor's degrees earned in the United States by field of research 2012/13 Note: United States; 2012-2013 Source: NCES; ID 185334 33,593 9,757 8,851 100,319 360,823 84,817 4,989 50,962 104,647 85,980 17,004 52,424 23,934 21,673 181,144 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 Agriculture and natural resources Architecture and related services Area, ethnic, cultural, gender, and group studies Biological and biomedical sciences Business Communication, journalism, and related programs Communications technologies Computer and information sciences Education Engineering Engineering technologies English language and literature/letters Family and consumer sciences/human sciences Foreign languages, literatures, and linguistics Health professions and related programs Number of degrees Fieldofresearch
  194. 194. Master's degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 53. 20 Number of master's degrees earned in the United States from 1950 to 2024, by gender (in 1,000) Master's degrees earned in the United States by gender 1950-2024 Note: United States; 1950-2012 Source: NCES; ID 185160 16.96 23.54 82.79 92.48 102.19 109.09 119.47 131.23 144.96 149.94 151.13 148.58 148.31 149.66 41.22 50.9 130.8 143.08 155.01 159.57 162.61 166.32 172.52 173.09 166.86 159.11 156.88 152.98 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1950 1960 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Number of degrees in thousands Year Female Male
  195. 195. Master's degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 54. 21 Number of master's degrees earned in the United States in 2013, by ethnicity Master's degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity 2013 Note: United States; 2013 Source: NCES; ID 185304 455,892 87,988 52,990 44,912 3,697 11,839 94,433 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 500000 White Black Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander American Indian/Alaskan Native Two or more races Nonresident alien Numberofdegrees Ethnicity
  196. 196. Master's degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 55. 22 Number of master's degrees earned in the United States by field of research in 2012/13 Master's degrees earned in the United States by field of research 2012/13 Note: United States; 2012-2013 Source: NCES; ID 185343 6,339 8,095 1,897 13,335 188,625 8,757 577 22,777 164,624 40,417 4,908 9,755 3,253 3,708 90,931 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 Agriculture and natural resources Architecture and related services Area, ethnic, cultural, gender, and group studies Biological and biomedical sciences Business Communication, journalism, and related programs Communications technologies Computer and information sciences Education Engineering Engineering technologies English language and literature/letters Family and consumer sciences/human sciences Foreign languages, literatures, and linguistics Health professions and related programs Number of degrees Fieldofresearch
  197. 197. Doctoral and first professional degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 56. 24 Number of doctoral degrees earned in the United States from 1950 to 2024, by gender (in 1,000) Doctoral degrees earned in the United States by gender 1950-2024 Note: United States; 1950 to 2012 Source: NCES; ID 185167 0.62 1.03 5.69 6.86 7.85 9.53 11.46 13.88 17.12 19.52 22.06 24.52 26.11 28.45 5.8 8.8 53.79 58.14 63.35 69.96 71.13 71.03 73.89 72.21 70.28 70.45 69.53 69.57 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1950 1960 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Number of degrees in thousands Year Female Male
  198. 198. Doctoral and first professional degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 57. 25 Number of first professional degrees earned in the United States by gender from 1970 to 2009 (in 1,000) First professional degrees earned in the United States by gender 1970-2009 Note: United States; 1970-2009 Source: US Department of Education; NCES; ID 185162 45.1 45.39 45 43.62 43.44 40.87 39.01 38.19 36.85 35.82 30.95 27.03 24.61 14.42 46.9 45.92 45.05 44.04 43.85 42.17 41.89 42.51 42.86 44.24 44.85 43.96 50.46 52.72 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 Number of degrees (in thousands) Year Female Male
  199. 199. Doctoral and first professional degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 58. 26 Number of doctoral degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity in 2011 Doctoral degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity 2011 Note: United States; 2012 Source: US Department of Education; NCES; ID 185310 109,270 11,740 9,215 17,893 913 1,569 19,462 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 White Black Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander American Indian/Alaskan Native Two or more races Nonresident alien Numberofdegrees Ethnicity
  200. 200. Doctoral and first professional degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 59. 27 Number of first-professional degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity in 2012 First-professional degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity Note: United States; 2012 Source: NCES; ProQuest; ID 185313 68,003 13,318 7,255 6,042 2,398 1,076 618 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 White, non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic Nonresident alien Two or more races American Indian/Alaskan Native NumberofPerson Ethnicity
  201. 201. Doctoral and first professional degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 60. 28 Number of doctoral degrees earned in the United States by field of research in 2013 Doctoral degrees earned in the United States by field of research 2013 Note: United States; 2013 Source: US Department of Education; NCES; ID 185353 1,411 247 291 7,943 2,836 612 1,826 10,572 9,356 111 1,373 351 1,304 64,195 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Agriculture and natural resources Architecture and related services Area, ethnic, cultural, and gender studies Biological and biomedical sciences Business Communication, journalism, and related programs Communications technologies Computer and information sciences Education Engineering Engineering technologies English language and literature/letters Family and consumer sciences/human sciences Foreign languages, literatures, and linguistics Health professions and related clinical sciences Number of degrees
  202. 202. Doctoral and first professional degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 61. 29 Number of first professional degrees earned in selected professions in the United States in 2012 First professional degrees earned in the United States for selected professions Note: United States; 2012 Source: NCES; US Department of Education; ID 185364 46,445 16,927 5,942 5,109 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 Law (LL.B. or J.D.) Medicine (M.D.) Theological (B.D., M.Div., M.H.L.) Dentistry (D.D.S. or D.M.D.) Number of degrees
  203. 203. Doctoral and first professional degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 63. 31 Doctorate recipients' primary sources of financial support in the United States in 2013 Primary sources of financial support for U.S. doctorate recipients in 2013 Note: United States; 2013 Source: NCSES; National Science Foundation; ID 240166 32% 26.9% 20.8% 15.4% 3% 1.8% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% Research assistantships/traineeships Fellowships/grants Teaching assistantships Own resources Employer Other Percentage of doctorate recipients
  204. 204. Associate's degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 64. 33 Number of associate's degrees earned in the United States by gender from 1970 to 2024 (in 1,000) Associate's degrees earned in the United States by gender 1970-2024 Note: United States; 1970 to 2012 Source: NCES; ID 185168 88.59 108 126 141 155 169.15 181 196 208 211 217 228 238 246 117.43 144 166 175 189 191.02 210 211 205 192 184 189 197 204 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Number of degrees in thousands Year Female Male
  205. 205. Associate's degree Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 65. 34 Number of Associate's degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity in 2012 Associate's degrees earned in the United States by ethnicity 2012 Note: United States; 2012 Source: US Department of Education; NCES; ID 185289 632,802 141,886 151,621 48,707 10,711 14,759 17,052 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 White Black Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander American Indian/Alaskan Native Two or more races Nonresident alien Numberofdegrees Ethnicity
  206. 206. Characteristics of graduates Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 66. 36 Employment and educational status of recent graduates in the United States in 2012 Work/study situation of recent graduates in the U.S. 2012 Note: United States; March 21, 2012 to April 2, 2012; 8-19 years; 444 Respondents; College graduates Source: John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development; ID 235208 51% 14% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 3% 3% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% Employed full-time Attending graduate or professional school, employed part-time or full-time Attending graduate or professional school, not employed Working part-time, not looking for full-time work Working part time, looking for full-time work Unemployed and looking for work now Unemployed but not looking for work now Volunteer Military Share of recent graduates
  207. 207. Characteristics of graduates Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 68. 38 Average earning increase after obtaining a graduate degree in the United States in 2013, by major group Average earning increase after obtaining a graduate degree in the U.S. 2013 Note: United States; 2013; 25-59 years Source: Center on Education and the Workforce; US Census Bureau; ID 226005 63.3% 50% 44.6% 34.2% 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% 33.1% 32.9% 29.2% 28.4% 25.6% 25.5% 25.4% 25% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% Biology and Life Science Physical Sciences Social Science Humanities and Liberal Arts Psychology and Social Work Business Education Law and Public Policy Agricultural and Natural Resources Health All Majors Computers, statistics, and mathematics Communications and journalism Industrial Arts, Consumer Services and recreation Architecture and engineering Earnings increase by percentage
  208. 208. Characteristics of graduates Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 69. 39 Median starting salary of recent university graduates, by gender, recession, internship experience, and degree relation United States 2012 (in U.S. dollar) U.S. university graduates median starting salaries 2012, various categories Note: United States; March 21, 2012 to April 2, 2012; 8-19 years; 444 Respondents; College graduates Source: John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development; ID 235211 30,000$ 30,000$ 30,000$ 30,000$ 28,000$ 27,000$ 26,000$ 26,000$ 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Did internship Male Pre-recession (2006-2007) First job very/somewhat related to degree Female Recession (2009-2011) First job not very/not at all related to degree No internship Median starting salary in U.S. dollar in $
  209. 209. Characteristics of graduates Further information regarding this statistic can be found on page 70. 40 Median student debt owed upon graduation in the United States in 2012, by institution type (in U.S. dollars) Median student debt owed upon graduation in the U.S., by institution type 2012 Note: United States; March 21, 2012 to April 2, 2012; 8-19 years; 444 Respondents; College graduates Source: John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development; ID 235222 18,680$ 24,460$ 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Public college Private college MediandebtinU.S.dollarsin$

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