As we move to a world driven by platforms, the strategy of Christian higher education needs to adjust. This presentation lays out a vision for how Christian higher education might adjust its strategy to compete in a global world dominated by platforms. Learn more at: http://www.globalchristiancollege.org and http://www.cheia.org
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BdbfvMWl-_o
If this were a "flipped classroom," here would be my discussion questions:
Do you buy this vision and strategy? How can it be improved?
If you do buy this, how can we become change agents to get the larger movement of Christian higher education to adapt its strategy? Who are the key influencers that we need to reach? How can we help bring the change that is needed?
The intended audience for this presentation is change agents rather than skeptics. I realize that there would need to be a different presentation targeting skeptics, but honestly, I think the best way to win them over will be not through presentations, but by creating new wineskins that demonstrate that this works.
Principles for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational Ecosystem
1. Principles for Building a Modular
Global Christian Educational Ecosystem
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears
This talk is at: https://youtu.be/BdbfvMWl-_o
Slideshare: https://goo.gl/aZGDDp
2. The Need 1: Rapid Growth of Higher Education Globally
100 Million
Students
in 2000
263 Million
Students
in 2025
(84% of growth in
the developing world)
Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.
Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers,
(2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf
137 Million New Students Per Year in Developing Countries by 2025
3. The Need 2: The Rise of Non-Western Christianity
5. 1900 1970 2000 2007 2025
South 21% 59% 86% 91% 99%
West 79% 41% 14% 9% 1%
21%
59%
86%
91%
99%
79%
41%
14%
9%
1%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Growth of Christianity by Region
Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson
http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
6. The Need 3: Consolidation & Christian Mega-universities
Liberty U
43%
Grand Canyon U
39%
All of CCCU
18%
Estimated Christian Higher Education Growth Since 2005
Total Growth:
175,808 students
Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.
8. Possible Future of Higher Education in 2030?
Consolidation & Platform Coopetition
Image Source: Wikimedia
State Owned Mega-universities
with 1 million+ Students
Technology Platform
Educational Networks
Global
Christian
Education
Platform
9. Three Possible Futures
Technology Platform
Dominant Future
(40% decline in CHE)
State Mega-Universities
Dominant Future
(40% decline in CHE)
Christian Global Educational
Platform Growth Future
(400% growth in CHE)
10. Framing the Challenge
In the face of these trends, how can CHE achieve the preferred
future of dramatic global growth?
Global HE
Growth
Consolidation
Growth of
Christianity in
the Majority
World
11. 10 million+ students
at $1,000/student
Radically Affordable
Mobile Education
The Need for Disruptive Innovation
Traditional
Christian
Higher
Education
(A few million students
At $10,000/student)
10 x
More
Users
1/10th
Cost
Radically Affordable
Blended Education
100 million+ students
at $50/student
12. Mobile Vision: Accredited Mobile Courses to Millions
Courses
Global Christian
College Credit
Consortium (GC4)
The Bible App Quality Mobile Courses
+
Accreditation
+
13. Concept 1: Role of Modularity & Unbundling in Disruptive Innovation
Unbundled (Modular) vs. Interdependent Architectures Over Time
Image Source: Wikimedia
15. Unbundling & Rebundling Strategy for Christian Higher Ed
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
Univ.
Microcampuses
Open
Education
Industry
Certifications
LinkedIn &
ePortfolios
MOOCs
& Apps
Univ. Accepting
Alt. Credit
Univ. Top-Up
Degrees
University
Courses
Books & Paid
Courseware
Christian
Coursewar
e
Internships
Alternative
Ed Providers
Alternative
Credit
Pathways
Transformative
Courses
Church & Ministry
Microcampuses
Vocational
Qualifications
(EQF)
Student
Coaches
Christian
Worldview Program
Designers
• Course market becomes more like book and software markets
• Reduce cost & improve quality through outsourcing and partnerships
• Christian content becomes more modular and less interdependent where possible
• University becomes system integrator of content and tech platforms.
Online
Faculty
Employer
Partnerships
Specialization increases productivity
and reduces costs
Course mentors often can be
Church-based
Partnerships with modular providers (especially in underdeveloped
communities) creates jobs, reduce cost & improve quality
Improve signaling & networking of
“bottom half” to new value networks
Vertically
Integrated
University
Virtually Integrated
University
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
Transformation is a core
competency of the Church
Mentoring
Small
Groups
16. Dead Capital
$9.3 trillion
400 million in India with
No Identification
Undocumented
Alternative
Education
Trillions of $ of lost value?
Concept 2: Technology Presents an Unprecedented Opportunity
to Expand and Document Alternative Education
17. Is Education More Secular or Christian Globally?
Perry L. Glanzer, "Dispersing the Light: The Status of Christian Higher Education around the Globe," Christian Scholar's Review 43 (2013): 321-43.
Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
It depends on how you frame the question
18. The Majority of Christian Education is Alternative Education
ACCREDITED EDUCATION
NONTRADITIONAL, BUT
ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION
(GROWING DRAMATICALLY)
Bible
Colleges
Christian
Liberal Arts
Colleges
Christian
Universities
Seminaries
Bible Institutes Ministry Experience
Professional Experience
Alternative Education Courses
Bible Studies
Sermons
Educational Discipleship Programs
Christian Radio,
TV, Websites,
Books & Apps
Small Groups
NONTRADITIONAL, NON-
ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION
PRIMARILY
PARACHURCH
PRIMARILY
CHURCH
Correspondence & Continuing Ed
Conferences
19. Industry Map: Supporting a Healthy Christian Tertiary Educational Ecosystem
ACCREDITED HIGHER
EDUCATION
NONTRADITIONAL, BUT
ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION
MOOCs & Open Ed
Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study,
Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo
Alison, YouTube, iTunesU, Open Learn, OLI
Christian Mega Universities
Liberty, Grand Canyon
Christian Universities
CCCU, IAPCHE, Overseas Council
Paid Courseware
Pearson, Mcgraw-Hill, Lynda.com,
Skillshare, Pluralsight, Dream Degree
Acrobatiq, Cengage, CogBooks, Flat World
Bible Colleges
ABHE Schools, ICETE, ATS
Online Christian Universities
CCCU, TRACS, DEAC, IAPCHE, ICHE
Alternative Credit Providers
Straighterline, Saylor, Ed4Online
EdX, JumpCourse, Pearson, Sofia
UC Irvine Extension, Modern States
Christian Free & Open Courses
ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, Global University Global Reach, Aqueductproject.org
Open Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, TransformingtheChurch
OpenSeminary.com, BiblicalTraining.org, Coram Deo, Multiply Movement, Truthfortheworld.org
Commercial Christian Courseware
Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed,
Zondervan, BibleMesh.com, Ligonier Connect
Bible Institutes
10’s of thousands globally
Open Textbooks
saylor.org/books, openstaxcollege.org,
courses.candelalearning.com/catalog/lumen
collegeopentextbooks.org,
open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/
Missions/Ministry Training
i.e. YWAM U Nations
Vocational Qualification Providers
>50% of global market,
10’s of thousands of Training Centers
Ministry & Professional Experience
Prior Learning Assessment
Christian Continuing Education
Insight.org, Lifepointemedia.com, Lifeway.com, Livingontheedge.org, Precept.org,
Sampsonresources.com, Sampson.ed.com, Walkthru.org, Answersingenesis.org,
Bsfinternational.org, Christiancounselingceu.com
Secular
Partners
Seminaries
ATS
TERTIARYEDUCATION
Home School College Credit
veritycollegeeducation.org,
creditsbeforecollege.com Unaccredited Ordination Training
Berean School, Lamp Seminary
Church & Ministry Micro-Campuses
Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights,
CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University
Secular Micro-campuses
Kepler, Minerva, Coursera Learning Hubs,
edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School,
Bridge International Academies
20. We can’t repeat the mistakes of the
past by expecting the majority world
to wear the “suits” of Western
accreditation, but there still must be
appropriate standards and signals
needed.
Source: Wikipedia Article on Assimilation of Native Americans
Higher Education vs. Tertiary Education vs. Vocational Education
21. Components of a Global Christian Educational Ecosystem
Church & Ministry Micro-campusesUnaccredited Christian Models: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University
Accredited Christian Models: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights, etc.
Secular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School, Bridge International, African Virtual University
Accredited Degree Pathways
Any Accredited Institution Accepting Alternative Credit: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison, Excelsior),
etc.
Alternative Credit Mechanisms
GC4, ICHE, GlobalAccreditation.com, ACE Credit, Vocational Qualifications, Standardized Tests, PLA, Articulation
Agreements
See: Christenson Institute Articles (part 1, part 2)
CoursewareChristian Free: ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, BiblicalTraining.org, Open Biola, Aqueductproject.org, TransformingTheChurch.org, Covenant
Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Global Reach, Coram Deo, Truthfortheworld, Open Church
Christian For Fee/Commercial: BibleMesh.com, Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed, Zondervan, Ligonier Connect
“Secular” Courseware: Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study, Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo, Alison, Open Learn, OLI, Lynda
Digital Distribution: Apps, Web/LMS, MOOC platform, Bible App, YouTube, iTunes, digital devices, print, church & ministry partnerships, corporate partnerships
Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only
Bible Schools
Christian
Liberal Arts
Colleges
Christian
Universities
Seminaries
Unbundled Disruptive EcosystemBundled
Traditional Consultants/System Integrators/Solution Providers: Nonprofit (CaCHE); Commercial: (BibleMesh.com, Lumerit)
Students (2016): 5 million
Projected Annual Growth: -5% to +5%
Non-Credit Students (2016): 1 million For Credit Students (2016): 10,000
Projected Annual Growth: 50% to 1,000%
Dominant
Business
Model:
For Fee
$10 to
$5,000/yr
Dominant
Business
Models:
Fremium
or Donor-
Based
What we can influence
22. Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4)
Path to a $5,000 degree
Level 3
Freshman
Level 4
Sophomore
$3,500
$3,500 (CVU)
or $100 +
partner tuition
$100 +
partner tuition
$100 +
partner tuition
City Vision
DEAC Accredited
University
GC4 (in TechMission)
as Qualifi Qualification
University
Degree
(1 year)
Level 5
Junior
23. GC4 Plan: Provide a Global Alternative Path for Course Level Accreditation
Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4) is work area of CHIEA to
provide course level accreditation to ministry schools
◦ We are doing this under Qualifi, which offers accreditation under the vocational
frameworks structure of Ofqual in the UK. Level 3, 4 & 5 certificates/diplomas may be
recognized in many commonwealth countries, and are considered accredited for transfer
credit evaluation.
◦ May also develop multilateral alliance of Christian articulation agreements similar to CASE
◦ GC4 legally resides as a program of the Christian nonprofit TechMission
Process and Requirements
◦ Review of curriculum by TechMission and Qualifi to ensure that it meets standards
◦ Requires that faculty graders have accredited award at the same level as those they are
grading (rather than a level above as most accreditation)
◦ Partner must provide documentation trail of assignments and grading. Right now this
means tracking assignments and grading in an online or mobile system.
www.globalchristiancollege.org
Theoretical Framework: Video, my Clayton Christensen Institute blog post (Part 1, Part 2)
24. Lean Startup Hypothesis Testing on Christian Ecosystem
What’s the best strategy for Christian Courses?
◦ Long Tail vs. World’s Best or both with long tail dominating
What will be the Dominant Distribution Platform for Christian Courses?
◦ World’s Best Distribution: Existing MOOC platforms, Christian MOOC platform, other
◦ Long Tail Distribution: open courses Web, app stores, traditional online education, media
platforms (iTunes/YouTube), long tail MOOCs (Udemy/iTunesU)
◦ Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only, all
What is the Dominant Business Model for Christian Courses?
◦ Philanthropy Driven: Bible App, Third Millennium, Khan Academy
◦ University Marketing Investment (Global Branding/Recruitment): Existing MOOCs, Open
Courses
◦ Fees/Subscription: Lynda.com, Logos, Bible Mesh, Udemy, Right Now Media
What mechanisms will be used to provide credit and how important will
they be?
◦ Mechanism for Credit: Traditional College Credit, GC4, In Country Qualifications, ACE (or similar)Note: Items in bold or crossed out represent the author’s best guess, but only experiments can accurately tell.
25. Steps of Quality Improvement in Disruptive Innovation
Image Source: Wikimedia
2. Complete Open Courses
1. Open Videos/Books
3.Certificate Courses
4. Microdegrees
5. Alternative Credit Courses
6. Blended Learning at Microcampuses for Accredited Vocational Diplomas
7. Blended Learning at Microcampuses for University Degrees
8. Blended Personalized Learning from Millions of
Modular Adaptive Courses for University Degrees
26. Concept 3: The Long Tail:
The 80/20 Rule becomes the 60/40 Rule after the Internet
80% of profit comes
from 20% of products
60% of profit comes
from 40% of products
Popularity
Products
The Long Tail
Blockbuster
Hits
Unpopular
YouTube Content
27. Effects of the Long Tail & Higher Education
Long Tail Increases Diversity of Content
◦ Video Stores (Blockbuster): 80% of rentals were recent “blockbusters,” only
carried 75 documentaries
◦ Amazon: carries 17,061 documentaries (of a possible 40,000)
◦ Long Tail of Search Terms (Website Example): Top 500 search terms
provide 19.5% of visitors 604,916 search terms provide 80.5% of visitors
Non-Western culture voices are largely on the long tail.
◦ The Internet extends the long tail. It decreases the proportion controlled by
big media and traditional universities from 80% to around 60% which gives
more room for non-Western voices.
◦ Open strategy maximizes visibility of non-Western voices.
28. Concept 3: The Long Tail & the Hollowing of the Middle
Newspaper Consolidation as a Case Study for Higher Education
Pre-Internet, some papers were great, some were terrible, most were average.
Source: Thompson, B. (2014, March 17). FiveThirtyEight and the End of Average. Retrieved February 16, 2016, from https://stratechery.com/2014/fivethirtyeight-end-average/
NumberofCompanies
29. Concept 3: The Long Tail and the Hollowing Out of the Middle
Post-Internet: Only two business models as average content is a commodity
2. Long Tail Aggregators1. Best in the World
Source: Thompson, B. (2014, March 17). FiveThirtyEight and the End of Average. Retrieved February 16, 2016, from https://stratechery.com/2014/fivethirtyeight-end-average/
NumberofCompanies
30. Tech Creates Two Tiered Markets with No MiddleWorld’sBestLongTail
Journalism Video Publishing Talks Courses Credentialing
Adaptive
Competency
Based Education
Ecosystem
Traditional
Degree
Image Source: Wikimedia
31. Concept 4: Develop Lean Startup Experiments to Test Options
How to Develop a Global Christian Education Platform
Build
MeasureLearn
Product
(start with minimum viable product)
Data
Pivot
Maximize
Loop
Iteration
Speed
Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous
Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses (First Edition). Crown Business.
32. Lean Startup Hypothesis Testing on Christian Ecosystem
What’s the best strategy for Christian Courses?
◦ Long Tail vs. World’s Best or both with long tail dominating
What will be the Dominant Distribution Platform for Christian Courses?
◦ World’s Best Distribution: Existing MOOC platforms, Christian MOOC platform, other
◦ Long Tail Distribution: open courses Web, app stores, traditional online education, media
platforms (iTunes/YouTube), long tail MOOCs (Udemy/iTunesU)
◦ Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only, all
What is the Dominant Business Model for Christian Courses?
◦ Philanthropy Driven: Bible App, Third Millennium, Khan Academy
◦ University Marketing Investment (Global Branding/Recruitment): Existing MOOCs, Open
Courses
◦ Fees/Subscription: Lynda.com, Logos, Bible Mesh, Udemy, Right Now Media
What mechanisms will be used to provide credit and how important will
they be?
◦ Mechanism for Credit: Traditional College Credit, GC4, In Country Qualifications, ACE (or similar)Note: Items in bold or crossed out represent the author’s best guess, but only experiments can accurately tell.
33. Mapping Best Practices for Christian Courseware
ThirdMill Harvestime Logos Mobile Open Biola Christian
University.or
g
Biblical
Training.org
BibleMesh
Multiplatform Mobile App,
LMS, Web
Web Web, Mobile Web, iTunes Mobile, Web, LMS Web, App Web
Unbundled All components Yes No Some
components
No. Bundled with
Our Daily Bread
No. Bundled as
course
No. Bundled as
course
Open License Yes, not
Creative
Commons
Yes No Creative
Commons
No No No
Delivery
Methods
Online, Blended,
Less Designed
for Offline
Blended,
Offline, Not
effective online
No Online Online Online Online
Course
Solution
Yes only through
LMS
Very limited
quizzes
No No Only for fee No quizzes Yes
Standardized
Content
Moderately
standardized
Not very
standardized
Moderately
standardized
Limited packaging
as complete
courses
Standard topics.
Non-standard
lengths
Standard topics Standard topics
Affordability Free Free $300-700/course Free Free
Fee for credit
Free $50-200/course
Quality Excellent Ok Excellent Excellent Excellent Good Excellent
Languages English, Arabic,
Mandarin,
Russian, Spanish,
Indonesian
English, Chinese
French, Russian,
Sinhala, Spanish,
Tagalog, Tamil,
Thai, Urdu,
Portuguese
English English English, Spanish,
Portuguese,
Chinese, Russian,
Arabic
English, Hindi,
Swahili, Spanish,
Arabic
No exams
34. Questions for Discussion
Assume Christian Higher Education (CHE) is about 5% of the global market. As the global
market grows from 100 million students (5 million in CHE) in 2000 to 263 million in 2025, just to
keep pace and not lose market share, CHE would need to grow globally to 13.25 million (163%
growth)…
What role can we play to help global CHE grow to that level?
What would we have to do differently?
How do we take steps toward that goal?
How do we grow all components of the ecosystem?
What are other key assumptions in building an ecosystem we need to test?
Is this the best way to frame the challenge?
35. Outline of Free Course in Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education
1. Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Higher Education
2. Understanding What’s Driving Change in Traditional Higher Education
3. Economics of Traditional Online Education
4. Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms
5. Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher Education
6. Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty
7. Lean Startup for Education
8. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis
9. College Access & the Race between Technology and Education
10. Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation
Available on Udemy, iTunes U, YouTube & Slideshare
Join the Christian Higher Education Innovation Alliance email group at:
groups.google.com/forum
36. Asset Mapping, Gap Analysis and Strategy to
Expand Christian Higher Education Globally
View Prezi Presentation at: http://prezi.com/dew6-xudm7jg/
View Mindmap at:
https://atlas.mindmup.com/2016/11/611c25c0a28a11e6818d4941b123936e/innovation_in_christian_higher_education/index.html
37. A Moonshot Vision for Growth of Global
Christian Higher Education
Dr. Andrew Sears
President, City Vision University
www.cityvision.edu
andrew@cityvision.edu
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears
38. Three Possible Futures
Technology Platform
Dominant Future
(40% decline in CHE)
State Mega-Universities
Dominant Future
(40% decline in CHE)
Christian Global Educational
Platform Growth Future
(400% growth in CHE)
39. Image Source: Wikimedia
Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees
Degree Market
Penetration Globally
6.7% (2016)
Traditional
Higher Education New Models for Post-Secondary Education
40. ASU’s as a Model for a Global Christian Educational Ecosystem
42. MicroCampuses
& Unbundled Models
Alternative Credit
10-50 million
On
Campus
Christian
Higher
Education
5 million
Modular
Blended Education
5-20 million
GC4, etc.
Courseware
100’s of millions
Global Digital Ecosystem
billions
ThirdMil, MOOCS, etc.
Moonshot Vision:
25 Million Students
in Accredited Degree
Programs by 2030
(400% growth)
Christian Digital
Ecosystem
43. Strategy to Achieve Moonshot Vision: 25 Million Students in
Accredited Degree Programs By 2030 (400% growth)
Microcampus
Students
5-10 million
Bachelor’s
5-20 million
Alternative Credit
10-50 million
Courseware
100’s of millions
Christian Digital Ecosystem
Billions
• College Years 1-3
• Average Cost: $100/year
• Building on Christian and secular courseware
• Microcampus, online and mobile delivery
• Free
• First Year Bible Courses
• Christian Integration Courses
• “Secular” courseware in Christian programs
• Average Cost: $1,000/year
• Full range of university degrees
• Christian Use of “Secular” platforms
• Bible App
• Christian Subscription Services
• Platforms to be identified?
• Average Cost: $2,000/year
• Transformational Campus Community
44. Assumptions and Design Parameters for Moonshot Vision
80%+ of growth of CHE will happen in developing countries
◦ Will require price points of $100 to $1,000 per year for CHE
◦ Accredited credentials will continue to be important to this market through 2030 and will be
essential for access to jobs
◦ Primary growth market will be the middle class (4.9 billion by 2030), of which almost all
have affordable broadband mobile internet access by 2030
Other Design Parameters
◦ Need to design for online, mobile, blended and offline delivery methods
◦ Majority of growth in global CHE will happen in the alternative education ecosystem
models as attendance traditional CHE will either decline or have slight growth
◦ Free, open, unbundled courseware will be foundational for growth
◦ Integration between components to provide solutions will be essential
Sources Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf
Offline and falling behind: Barriers to Internet adoption | McKinsey & Company. http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/offline-and-falling-behind-barriers-to-internet-adoption
Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.
45. Components of a Global Christian Educational Ecosystem
Church & Ministry Micro-campusesUnaccredited Christian Models: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University
Accredited Christian Models: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights, etc.
Secular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School, Bridge International, African Virtual University
Accredited Degree Pathways
Any Accredited Institution Accepting Alternative Credit: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison, Excelsior),
etc.
Alternative Credit Mechanisms
GC4, ICHE, GlobalAccreditation.com, ACE Credit, Vocational Qualifications, Standardized Tests, PLA, Articulation
Agreements
See: Christenson Institute Articles (part 1, part 2)
CoursewareChristian Free: ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, BiblicalTraining.org, Open Biola, Aqueductproject.org, TransformingTheChurch.org, Covenant
Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Global Reach, Coram Deo, Truthfortheworld, Open Church
Christian For Fee/Commercial: BibleMesh.com, Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed, Zondervan, Ligonier Connect
“Secular” Courseware: Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study, Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo, Alison, Open Learn, OLI, Lynda
Digital Distribution: Apps, Web/LMS, MOOC platform, Bible App, YouTube, iTunes, digital devices, print, church & ministry partnerships, corporate partnerships
Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only
Bible Schools
Christian
Liberal Arts
Colleges
Christian
Universities
Seminaries
Unbundled Disruptive EcosystemBundled
Traditional Consultants/System Integrators/Solution Providers: Nonprofit (CaCHE); Commercial: (BibleMesh.com, Lumerit)
Students (2016): 5 million
Projected Annual Growth: -5% to +5%
Non-Credit Students (2016): 1 million For Credit Students (2016): 10,000
Projected Annual Growth: 50% to 1,000%
Dominant
Business
Model:
For Fee
$10 to
$5,000/yr
Dominant
Business
Models:
Fremium
or Donor-
Based
What we can influence
46. Church & Ministry Micro-campuses
$1 million to get 500 students to complete an one year alternative degree program
($2,000/student)
Accredited Degree Pathways
$1 million to accept alternative credit with 1,000 degrees completed
($1,000/degree)
Alternative Credit Mechanisms
$1 million to get 2,000 students with credit accepted by accredited Christian institutions
($500/student)
Courseware Providers
$2 million to get 10,000 students in alternative credit programs
($50/student)
Goal: Scale Alternative Credit Ecosystem to add 10,000 students ($50/student)
Proposed $5 Million Funding Pilot
Who are potential funders that might support this vision?
47. Why Take This Approach for a Funding Pilot?
The most significant “gap” is to get the components of the Christian
educational ecosystem to work together
◦ It is critical to invest in all components of the ecosystem as well as the connections
between them to create solutions
We need a pilot to “cross the chasm” into mainstream adoption of alternative
education ecosystem
◦ We need to conduct “lean startup” experiments to find out how to scale the alternative
Christian education ecosystem
◦ We don’t yet know what models will become the dominant solution
“Solutions to many of the world's most difficult social problems don't need to
be invented, they only need to be found, funded and scaled”
◦ See next presentation on business models
Quote Source: Judith Rodin, president of the Rockefeller Foundation
48. Characteristics of an Alternative CHE Ecosystem that Crosses the Chasm
Free Courseware
◦ B2C: highly usable, mobile-first design, probably built on Open edX (or similar highly-
usable, mobile-friendly platform)
◦ B2B: Highly usable mechanisms that enable church-centered distribution
Business Model
◦ Will build on free courseware with long-term sustainable funding model
◦ Probably less than 10 major Christian players globally, targeting various niches, each with
an investment of $10 to $100 million to achieve critical mass
◦ Usability will require tight integration between layers of an unbundled model, but unclear
which layers will be re-bundled in dominant business models
◦ Will offer non-credit and for-credit paths
Content
◦ Representing major denominational distinctives (Pentecostal, Reformed, etc.) and
languages
◦ Christian integration into specific fields to get jobs: business, tech, etc. targeting
majority world
49. Business Model Examples of Unbundling
& Rebundling in Christian Education
“Solutions to many of the world's most difficult social problems don't need to be invented,
they only need to be found, funded and scaled”
- Judith Rodin, president of the Rockefeller Foundation
51. Unbundling & Rebundling Strategy for Christian Higher Ed
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
Univ.
Microcampuses
Open
Education
Industry
Certifications
LinkedIn &
ePortfolios
MOOCs
& Apps
Univ. Accepting
Alt. Credit
Univ. Top-Up
Degrees
University
Courses
Books & Paid
Courseware
Christian
Coursewar
e
Internships
Alternative
Ed Providers
Alternative
Credit
Pathways
Transformative
Courses
Church & Ministry
Microcampuses
Vocational
Qualifications
(EQF)
Student
Coaches
Christian
Worldview Program
Designers
Online
Faculty
Employer
Partnerships
Vertically
Integrated
University
Virtually Integrated
University
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
Mentoring
Small
Groups
52. Model 1: Christian Students at 4 Year Secular Universities
Campus Groups: Cru, Intervarsity, etc. + Digital Ecosystem
Local
Church
Christian Courseware
Christian
Campus
Groups
Missions Trips &
Ministry Volunteering
Secular
University
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
Articulation Agreements
for Christian Courses
• Pros: Christians can achieve higher access to opportunity, avoids abandoning secular academia
• Cons: Christians in secular universities more likely to lose faith
• Gap Analysis & Needs: articulation agreements for Christian courses, Christian courseware targeting this market,
Effectiveness determined by tightness of integration with student experience
• Examples: Cru, Intervarsity, etc.
Christian Campus
Ecosystem
53. Model 2: Church/Ministry Microcampus as Alternative to 4
Year University
Microcampus at Local
Church/Ministry
Christian
College
Courses
Internship Practicum at
Ministry or Church
Secular or Christian
University Graduate School
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
Articulation Agreements for
Christian Associate’s
• Pros: Combines complete Christian undergraduate education with ministry involvement, megachurches will have strong offerings here
• Cons: Decreased access to opportunity relative to more established universities
• Gap Analysis & Needs: scale of organizations pursuing this model, established training & framework for microcampuses
• Unbundled Examples: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University,
Traditional Examples: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights
Secular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, African Virtual University
Christian
Courseware
Alternative Credit
MOOCs
& Apps
Transformative
Courses
Christian Worldview
Program Design
Job
Local Church or
Ministry Teaching
Ministry
Mentoring
Small
Groups
Microcampus Bachelor’s Degrees
54. Model 3: Church/Ministry Microcampus as Alternative to
Community College
Microcampus at Local
Church/Ministry
Christian
College
Courses
Internship Practicum at
Ministry or Church
Secular or Christian
University
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
Articulation Agreements for
Christian Associate’s
• Pros: Combines Christian general education with improved access of secular university
• Cons: Christians in secular universities more likely to lose faith, challenges in accepting credit transfer, less integration between years
• Gap Analysis & Needs: articulation agreements, courses & organizations focused on this model, established framework for microcampuses
• Examples: City Vision’s Associate’s Degrees
• Secular Examples: Straighterline, Saylor Academy
Christian Associate’s Degree
Christian
Courseware
Alternative Credit
MOOCs
& Apps
Transformative
Courses
Christian Worldview
Program Design
Last 2
Years
Local Church or
Ministry Teaching
Ministry
Mentoring
Small
Groups
55. Model 4: Unbundled Online Degree Completion University
(Top-Up Degree Program)
Christian
College
Courses
Internship Practicum at
Ministry or Church
Secular or Christian
University Graduate School
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
Industry Certifications
• Pros: Provides affordable convenient Christian education as last year or few years of program
• Cons: Limited transformation because of lack of physical community
• Gap Analysis & Needs: scale of organizations pursuing this model
• Examples: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison, Excelsior)
Christian
Courseware
Alternative Credit
MOOCs
& Apps
Transformative Courses
Christian Worldview
Program Design
Job
Transfer Credit
56. Model 5: Theological Institutes Using Courseware
to Become Christian Universities (or Launch Online Colleges)
Transformative Experience on Campus
Locally Developed Courses
Internship Practicum at
Ministry, Church or Marketplace
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
• Pros: Decreases costs to become Christian University and online college and add degrees beyond theology and Bible
• Cons: Outsourcing content will mean less local contextualization, limited languages of courseware
• Gap Analysis & Needs: training for schools making this change, organizations supporting this model, pilot models
• Examples: unknown
Christian
Courseware
GC4 & Other
Alternative Credit
MOOCs
& Apps
Christian Worldview
Program Design
Job
Bachelor’s Degrees Online or in other Fields
Campus
Theology &
Bible
Bachelor’s
Global Degree
Partnerships
Vocational
Qualifications
1-3 Years
Theology &
Bible Courses
Secular or Christian
University Graduate School
Church/Ministry Job
Marketplace Job
57. Model 6: Christian Educational Outsourcing, Consulting &
Multisided Courseware Market
Courseware from
Partner Schools
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
• Pros: Decreases start up cost, effective for low volume, acquire outside expertise, can also help with student recruitment
• Cons: Can increase per student cost, dependent on outside expertise
• Examples: Christian (Lumerit, BibleMesh), Secular (Pearson, Wiley, Bisk, Learning House, Academic Partnerships, 2U)
• Gap Analysis & Needs: scalable cost-effective multisided courseware markets
Courseware
Developed by
Consultant
Articulation Agreements
Other
Coursewar
e
Accreditor Approval
Other Partner Schools
Outsourced
Student Services
Outsourced
Christian Program
Designers
Outsourced Online
Faculty by
Consultant
Partner School
Faculty
Partner School
Courses
Provided by Consultant
Univ. Courses
Univ. Faculty &
Services
Univ. Degree
Univ.
Experience
Provided by
Your University
Partner School
Course Accreditation
58. Model 7: Christian Digital Subscription Services, Church
Curriculum & Lifelong Learning
Christian Courseware
Subscriptions
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
• Pros: Extremely affordable subscriptions $10-50/month, church-centric distribution
• Cons: If there is lack of integration of content with local church community then transformation could be limited
• Courseware Subscription Examples: Logos Mobile Ed, ChristianUniversityCertificates.org, Secular (Lynda.com, Great Courses, Skillshare)
• Non-Courseware Digital Church Curriculum: RightNow Media, Open Church (free), Group Online
• Christian Consumer Digital Subscriptions: Dove, Pureflix, Up Faith, JellyTelly, iBethelTV, Parables TV, Christian Games
• Traditional Church Curriculum: Saddleback Pastors.com, Group Publishing, Lifeway Publishing
Alternative
Credit
Christian Program
Designers
Local
Church
Top-up Degree
Christian Consumer
Digital Subscriptions
Traditional Church
Curriculum
Program Design
Tools
Digital Church
Curriculum
Ordination
Church-Centric Digital Ecosystem
Sunday
School
Small
Groups
59. Model 8: Dual Enrollment, Early College & Homeschool College
Homeschool
Christian
College
Courses
Homeschool Mentoring
Traditional Christian or
Secular University or
Unbundled Degree
Completion Programs
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
• Pros: Shorten Bachelors time/cost allowing faster access to graduate school that might provide higher access
• Cons: Increased expectations on high school students
• Gap Analysis & Needs: scale of organizations pursuing this model, established training & frameworks
• Examples: Credits Before College, Veritycollegeeducation.org, Lumerit, Dual Enrollment Programs at Most Christian Colleges
Christian
Courseware
Alternative Credit
MOOCs
& Apps
Christian Worldview
Program Design
Homeschool or
High School
Courses
Youth
Group
College Credit
Secular or Christian
University Graduate School
Job
60. Course Mentors
(SME)
Credit by Exam &
Prior Learning
Degree
Paid
Courseware
Credit by Exam or
Competency Evaluation
Documented
Competencies
Industry
Certifications
No Offering
Student
Mentors
Evaluators
Program
Faculty
Practicum
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
Local
Church
Christian
Courseware
Western Govenor’s Rebundled Program
Optional Self Assembled
Components By Individual
Secular Model 1: Western Governors University
and Similar CBE Programs
• Pros: Cost effective way for Christians to get credentials needed for jobs
• Cons: No mechanism to integrate Christian components, Christian education is an added “cost” to stripped down unbundled model
• Gap Analysis & Needs: Christian courseware targeting this market, churches supporting this model
61. Secular Model 2: Coding Boot Camps
Coding Boot Camp’s Rebundled Program
Mentored Project-Based Learning
Most Current, Highest Demand Content
from Top Practitioners
Relationships
to Employer
Employment
Guarantees
Brand for Recruiting
Raw Brainpower
No Offering
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
Local
Church
Christian
Courseware
Optional Self Assembled
Components By Individual
• Pros: Cost effective way for Christians to get credentials needed for jobs
• Cons: No mechanism to integrate Christian components, Christian education is an added “cost” to stripped down unbundled model
• Gap Analysis & Needs: Christian courseware targeting this market, churches supporting this model
62. Secular Model 3: Vocational Qualifications
Vocational Qualifications
Rebundled Program (EQF, RQF, etc.)
No Offering
Level
3
Level
4
Top-up Bachelor’s
Degree
Level
8
Level
5
Level
7
Master’s
Prior Learning
Assessment
Doctorate
Vocational
Learning Centers
Internships
& Externships
Employer
Networks
Industry
Certifications
On-the-job
Training
Transformative
Experience
Access to
Opportunity
Metacognition
& Skills
Knowledge
Acquisition
(content)
Local
Church
Christian
Courseware
Optional Self Assembled
Components By Individual
• Pros: Cost effective way for Christians to get credentials needed for jobs
• Cons: No mechanism to integrate Christian components, Christian education is an added “cost” to stripped down unbundled model
• Gap Analysis & Needs: Christian courseware targeting this market, churches supporting this model
63. Principles from Rebundled Business Models
The effectiveness of rebundled business models will depend on the strength
of integration between components
◦ Campus groups, churches, secular & Christian courseware
Megachurch microcampuses could become dominant rebundling business
model for Christian transformation
Some people will assemble unbundled components on their own, but most
will prefer to buy predesigned bundles (like Lego kits)
Mashups between business models will be common
In an unbundled world, getting people to pay for bundled Christian
transformation in CHE may be more challenging
What will be the dominant business models for CHE in an unbundled world is
yet to be determined
Editor's Notes
My background. Grew up poor. Went to school at MIT. Good Will Hunting. Dot.com. Venture Capital. 15 years educating the poor. 2008 became a college president. A few years ago completed my doctoral dissertation on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education.
Top 1% of global income means you make more than $32,400.
Cost plus pricing (traditional) vs. target costing
Tertiary Education Stats from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOTjtsrKOqI
By 2050, between 1 and 2.5 billion people will have a tertiary education.
Market: $900 billion market in 2005, $1.5 trillion in 2012, $2.5 trillion 2017
# students outside Western countries: 30 million in 1980, 140 million in 2010
84% of growth from developing countries from 2000 to 2010
Mexico 1.9 million to 2.8 million in past decade
India: under 10 million to over 20 million in past decade
Jesus said, “I do what I see the Father doing.” I believe that one of the primary stories of what God is doing is the growth of Christianity in non-Western countries. Discussed a lot by Kevin Phillips.
According to Todd Johnson, by 2025, the non-Western Christians will represent 69% of global Christendom and 99% of growth.
What business in the world after seeing that 99% of its future growth was in a particular market wouldn’t invest most of its resources there?
So I want us to spend a few minutes to have a discussion to help with this reframing. At many schools in Christian higher education, the focus is on how can we keep from shrinking by 10%. I think we are spending too much of our effort on that, and not enough on the opportunity presented on the next slide.
121 Members of CCCU
Sending more teachers is a critical part, but how do we decrease the cost by a factor of 10?
The Bible App might be “the top global Christian platform” in the same way that WeChat is its own platform.
What if we offered a year of accredited Bible school to all of Indonesia for $50. Promote on TV, radio
Unbundling teacher/faculty: reduce cost with less skilled mentors, how small groups are led
Vertically integrated:
Move from a vertically integrated university to a modular networked university
Does the university have to be all things to all people?
Most instructors can never compete for teaching with the podcasts I listen to
In some cases this will be better and in other cases it will be much worse
But it is what the trend is toward
About 1/3 of the universe is dark matter/energy
Hernando de Soto estimates that $9.3 trillion is in dead capital
https://hbr.org/product/aadhaar-india-s-unique-identification-system/712412-PDF-ENG
India had no nationally accepted way to prove identity and hence 42% of the population at the base of the pyramid had to resort to bribery to access entitlements, while a web of fake or multiple identities facilitated criminal diversion of government subsidies.
http://www.strategy-business.com/article/Social-Entrepreneurship-by-the-Billions?gko=6124e
Note: projections are author’s own estimate to make a point on growth potential.
We can influence whether traditional CHE grows by 5% or shrinks by 5% as well as whether unbundled grows by 100% or 1,000%. I would argue that investing in the growth of the unbundled ecosystem is the better investment, but we should focus on both
Because 1) of the current impact of traditional CHE and 2) unbundled CHE’s growth potential still needs to be proven.
The 80/20 rule states that 80% of the profits come from 20% of the products. Shown in the blue line, which has a very steep drop
For example
That is now changing with the Internet as shown in the black line where now 60% of profits come from 40% of the products
Huge implications on increasing content diversity and that has huge implications for missions
Other examples: Organic vs. Factory Farming, Physical Retail vs. Amazon, Venture Capital vs. Bootstrapping, mobile vs skype international calls
World’s Best:
machine-assisted humans, primarily human expertise with technology in background
Long Tail:
human-assisted machines
Moneyball, analytics, big-data driven, tech as core competency
Best Practices for Christian Courseware
Multiplatform
Mobile Apps, Web, MOOC platforms, LMS, Etc.
Unbundled Content
Anyone can reuse components: Videos (YouTube), Lessons, Courses, Content Items
Sharing
Creative Commons License, Common Cartridge Course Exports
Support Multiple Learning Formats
Mobile only, Online only, blended, offline only
Complete Solution for Courses
Tests/Quizzes and/or Grading
Standard Content Alignment with Common Subjects & Degrees
Interdenominational Content
This is a brainstorming discussion, so there are no right or wrong answers. The idea is just to come up with ideas. What I want you to do is to spend about 5 minutes at your table discussing this question.
Who here is familiar with the adoption cycle graph? Innovators are people who bought a PalmPilot, early adopters bought a Trio or Windows Phone. The idea of crossing the chasm is that the companies that serve the geeks, often are not the companies that dominate the market for the average people (iPhone and Android).
Most people like to think of higher education as a single market, but its actually multiple markets.
Answers don’t need to be invented.
They need to be found, funded and scaled.
Note: projections are author’s own estimate to make a point on growth potential.
We can influence whether traditional CHE grows by 5% or shrinks by 5% as well as whether unbundled grows by 100% or 1,000%. I would argue that investing in the growth of the unbundled ecosystem is the better investment, but we should focus on both
Because 1) of the current impact of traditional CHE and 2) unbundled CHE’s growth potential still needs to be proven.
Unbundling teacher/faculty: reduce cost with less skilled mentors, how small groups are led
Vertically integrated:
Move from a vertically integrated university to a modular networked university
Does the university have to be all things to all people?
Most instructors can never compete for teaching with the podcasts I listen to
In some cases this will be better and in other cases it will be much worse
But it is what the trend is toward
Unbundling teacher/faculty: reduce cost with less skilled mentors, how small groups are led
Vertically integrated:
Move from a vertically integrated university to a modular networked university
Does the university have to be all things to all people?
Most instructors can never compete for teaching with the podcasts I listen to
In some cases this will be better and in other cases it will be much worse
But it is what the trend is toward