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Principles for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational Ecosystem

Dr. Andrew Sears discusses the need for a modular global Christian educational ecosystem to address rapid growth in higher education, particularly in the developing world, where non-Western Christianity is on the rise. He proposes a transformative model of Christian higher education that employs innovative, affordable, and modular approaches to learning, leveraging technology for broader accessibility. The document outlines various strategies and frameworks for achieving a more diverse and inclusive educational landscape while ensuring quality and relevance in the face of global changes.

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Principles for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational Ecosystem Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears This talk is at: https://youtu.be/BdbfvMWl-_o Slideshare: https://goo.gl/aZGDDp
The Need 1: Rapid Growth of Higher Education Globally 100 Million Students in 2000 263 Million Students in 2025 (84% of growth in the developing world) Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572. Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf 137 Million New Students Per Year in Developing Countries by 2025
The Need 2: The Rise of Non-Western Christianity
- 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,800,000,000 2,000,000,000 1800 1900 1970 2000 2007 2025 Christian Membership by Region West South Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
1900 1970 2000 2007 2025 South 21% 59% 86% 91% 99% West 79% 41% 14% 9% 1% 21% 59% 86% 91% 99% 79% 41% 14% 9% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Growth of Christianity by Region Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
The Need 3: Consolidation & Christian Mega-universities Liberty U 43% Grand Canyon U 39% All of CCCU 18% Estimated Christian Higher Education Growth Since 2005 Total Growth: 175,808 students Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.
Will Education Consolidation follow Media Consolidation?
Possible Future of Higher Education in 2030? Consolidation & Platform Coopetition Image Source: Wikimedia State Owned Mega-universities with 1 million+ Students Technology Platform Educational Networks Global Christian Education Platform
Three Possible Futures Technology Platform Dominant Future (40% decline in CHE) State Mega-Universities Dominant Future (40% decline in CHE) Christian Global Educational Platform Growth Future (400% growth in CHE)
Framing the Challenge In the face of these trends, how can CHE achieve the preferred future of dramatic global growth? Global HE Growth Consolidation Growth of Christianity in the Majority World
10 million+ students at $1,000/student Radically Affordable Mobile Education The Need for Disruptive Innovation Traditional Christian Higher Education (A few million students At $10,000/student) 10 x More Users 1/10th Cost Radically Affordable Blended Education 100 million+ students at $50/student
Mobile Vision: Accredited Mobile Courses to Millions Courses Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4) The Bible App Quality Mobile Courses + Accreditation +
Concept 1: Role of Modularity & Unbundling in Disruptive Innovation Unbundled (Modular) vs. Interdependent Architectures Over Time Image Source: Wikimedia
Modular Universities = Lego Cities Monolithic Bundled Degrees Today Unbundled Education = Lego Blocks Modular Degrees & Credentials = Lego KitsInteroperable Standards Source: http://www.christenseninstitute.org/unlocking-stackable-global-credentials/ http://www.christenseninstitute.org/a-standards-strategy-for-stackable-global-credentials/
Unbundling & Rebundling Strategy for Christian Higher Ed Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Univ. Microcampuses Open Education Industry Certifications LinkedIn & ePortfolios MOOCs & Apps Univ. Accepting Alt. Credit Univ. Top-Up Degrees University Courses Books & Paid Courseware Christian Coursewar e Internships Alternative Ed Providers Alternative Credit Pathways Transformative Courses Church & Ministry Microcampuses Vocational Qualifications (EQF) Student Coaches Christian Worldview Program Designers • Course market becomes more like book and software markets • Reduce cost & improve quality through outsourcing and partnerships • Christian content becomes more modular and less interdependent where possible • University becomes system integrator of content and tech platforms. Online Faculty Employer Partnerships Specialization increases productivity and reduces costs Course mentors often can be Church-based Partnerships with modular providers (especially in underdeveloped communities) creates jobs, reduce cost & improve quality Improve signaling & networking of “bottom half” to new value networks Vertically Integrated University Virtually Integrated University Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Transformation is a core competency of the Church Mentoring Small Groups
Dead Capital $9.3 trillion 400 million in India with No Identification Undocumented Alternative Education Trillions of $ of lost value? Concept 2: Technology Presents an Unprecedented Opportunity to Expand and Document Alternative Education
Is Education More Secular or Christian Globally? Perry L. Glanzer, "Dispersing the Light: The Status of Christian Higher Education around the Globe," Christian Scholar's Review 43 (2013): 321-43. Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf It depends on how you frame the question
The Majority of Christian Education is Alternative Education ACCREDITED EDUCATION NONTRADITIONAL, BUT ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION (GROWING DRAMATICALLY) Bible Colleges Christian Liberal Arts Colleges Christian Universities Seminaries Bible Institutes Ministry Experience Professional Experience Alternative Education Courses Bible Studies Sermons Educational Discipleship Programs Christian Radio, TV, Websites, Books & Apps Small Groups NONTRADITIONAL, NON- ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION PRIMARILY PARACHURCH PRIMARILY CHURCH Correspondence & Continuing Ed Conferences
Industry Map: Supporting a Healthy Christian Tertiary Educational Ecosystem ACCREDITED HIGHER EDUCATION NONTRADITIONAL, BUT ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION MOOCs & Open Ed Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study, Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo Alison, YouTube, iTunesU, Open Learn, OLI Christian Mega Universities Liberty, Grand Canyon Christian Universities CCCU, IAPCHE, Overseas Council Paid Courseware Pearson, Mcgraw-Hill, Lynda.com, Skillshare, Pluralsight, Dream Degree Acrobatiq, Cengage, CogBooks, Flat World Bible Colleges ABHE Schools, ICETE, ATS Online Christian Universities CCCU, TRACS, DEAC, IAPCHE, ICHE Alternative Credit Providers Straighterline, Saylor, Ed4Online EdX, JumpCourse, Pearson, Sofia UC Irvine Extension, Modern States Christian Free & Open Courses ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, Global University Global Reach, Aqueductproject.org Open Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, TransformingtheChurch OpenSeminary.com, BiblicalTraining.org, Coram Deo, Multiply Movement, Truthfortheworld.org Commercial Christian Courseware Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed, Zondervan, BibleMesh.com, Ligonier Connect Bible Institutes 10’s of thousands globally Open Textbooks saylor.org/books, openstaxcollege.org, courses.candelalearning.com/catalog/lumen collegeopentextbooks.org, open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/ Missions/Ministry Training i.e. YWAM U Nations Vocational Qualification Providers >50% of global market, 10’s of thousands of Training Centers Ministry & Professional Experience Prior Learning Assessment Christian Continuing Education Insight.org, Lifepointemedia.com, Lifeway.com, Livingontheedge.org, Precept.org, Sampsonresources.com, Sampson.ed.com, Walkthru.org, Answersingenesis.org, Bsfinternational.org, Christiancounselingceu.com Secular Partners Seminaries ATS TERTIARYEDUCATION Home School College Credit veritycollegeeducation.org, creditsbeforecollege.com Unaccredited Ordination Training Berean School, Lamp Seminary Church & Ministry Micro-Campuses Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights, CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University Secular Micro-campuses Kepler, Minerva, Coursera Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School, Bridge International Academies
We can’t repeat the mistakes of the past by expecting the majority world to wear the “suits” of Western accreditation, but there still must be appropriate standards and signals needed. Source: Wikipedia Article on Assimilation of Native Americans Higher Education vs. Tertiary Education vs. Vocational Education
Components of a Global Christian Educational Ecosystem Church & Ministry Micro-campusesUnaccredited Christian Models: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University Accredited Christian Models: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights, etc. Secular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School, Bridge International, African Virtual University Accredited Degree Pathways Any Accredited Institution Accepting Alternative Credit: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison, Excelsior), etc. Alternative Credit Mechanisms GC4, ICHE, GlobalAccreditation.com, ACE Credit, Vocational Qualifications, Standardized Tests, PLA, Articulation Agreements See: Christenson Institute Articles (part 1, part 2) CoursewareChristian Free: ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, BiblicalTraining.org, Open Biola, Aqueductproject.org, TransformingTheChurch.org, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Global Reach, Coram Deo, Truthfortheworld, Open Church Christian For Fee/Commercial: BibleMesh.com, Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed, Zondervan, Ligonier Connect “Secular” Courseware: Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study, Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo, Alison, Open Learn, OLI, Lynda Digital Distribution: Apps, Web/LMS, MOOC platform, Bible App, YouTube, iTunes, digital devices, print, church & ministry partnerships, corporate partnerships Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only Bible Schools Christian Liberal Arts Colleges Christian Universities Seminaries Unbundled Disruptive EcosystemBundled Traditional Consultants/System Integrators/Solution Providers: Nonprofit (CaCHE); Commercial: (BibleMesh.com, Lumerit) Students (2016): 5 million Projected Annual Growth: -5% to +5% Non-Credit Students (2016): 1 million For Credit Students (2016): 10,000 Projected Annual Growth: 50% to 1,000% Dominant Business Model: For Fee $10 to $5,000/yr Dominant Business Models: Fremium or Donor- Based What we can influence
Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4) Path to a $5,000 degree Level 3 Freshman Level 4 Sophomore $3,500 $3,500 (CVU) or $100 + partner tuition $100 + partner tuition $100 + partner tuition City Vision DEAC Accredited University GC4 (in TechMission) as Qualifi Qualification University Degree (1 year) Level 5 Junior
GC4 Plan: Provide a Global Alternative Path for Course Level Accreditation  Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4) is work area of CHIEA to provide course level accreditation to ministry schools ◦ We are doing this under Qualifi, which offers accreditation under the vocational frameworks structure of Ofqual in the UK. Level 3, 4 & 5 certificates/diplomas may be recognized in many commonwealth countries, and are considered accredited for transfer credit evaluation. ◦ May also develop multilateral alliance of Christian articulation agreements similar to CASE ◦ GC4 legally resides as a program of the Christian nonprofit TechMission  Process and Requirements ◦ Review of curriculum by TechMission and Qualifi to ensure that it meets standards ◦ Requires that faculty graders have accredited award at the same level as those they are grading (rather than a level above as most accreditation) ◦ Partner must provide documentation trail of assignments and grading. Right now this means tracking assignments and grading in an online or mobile system.  www.globalchristiancollege.org Theoretical Framework: Video, my Clayton Christensen Institute blog post (Part 1, Part 2)
Lean Startup Hypothesis Testing on Christian Ecosystem  What’s the best strategy for Christian Courses? ◦ Long Tail vs. World’s Best or both with long tail dominating  What will be the Dominant Distribution Platform for Christian Courses? ◦ World’s Best Distribution: Existing MOOC platforms, Christian MOOC platform, other ◦ Long Tail Distribution: open courses Web, app stores, traditional online education, media platforms (iTunes/YouTube), long tail MOOCs (Udemy/iTunesU) ◦ Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only, all  What is the Dominant Business Model for Christian Courses? ◦ Philanthropy Driven: Bible App, Third Millennium, Khan Academy ◦ University Marketing Investment (Global Branding/Recruitment): Existing MOOCs, Open Courses ◦ Fees/Subscription: Lynda.com, Logos, Bible Mesh, Udemy, Right Now Media  What mechanisms will be used to provide credit and how important will they be? ◦ Mechanism for Credit: Traditional College Credit, GC4, In Country Qualifications, ACE (or similar)Note: Items in bold or crossed out represent the author’s best guess, but only experiments can accurately tell.
Steps of Quality Improvement in Disruptive Innovation Image Source: Wikimedia 2. Complete Open Courses 1. Open Videos/Books 3.Certificate Courses 4. Microdegrees 5. Alternative Credit Courses 6. Blended Learning at Microcampuses for Accredited Vocational Diplomas 7. Blended Learning at Microcampuses for University Degrees 8. Blended Personalized Learning from Millions of Modular Adaptive Courses for University Degrees
Concept 3: The Long Tail: The 80/20 Rule becomes the 60/40 Rule after the Internet 80% of profit comes from 20% of products 60% of profit comes from 40% of products Popularity Products The Long Tail Blockbuster Hits Unpopular YouTube Content
Effects of the Long Tail & Higher Education  Long Tail Increases Diversity of Content ◦ Video Stores (Blockbuster): 80% of rentals were recent “blockbusters,” only carried 75 documentaries ◦ Amazon: carries 17,061 documentaries (of a possible 40,000) ◦ Long Tail of Search Terms (Website Example): Top 500 search terms provide 19.5% of visitors 604,916 search terms provide 80.5% of visitors  Non-Western culture voices are largely on the long tail. ◦ The Internet extends the long tail. It decreases the proportion controlled by big media and traditional universities from 80% to around 60% which gives more room for non-Western voices. ◦ Open strategy maximizes visibility of non-Western voices.
Concept 3: The Long Tail & the Hollowing of the Middle Newspaper Consolidation as a Case Study for Higher Education Pre-Internet, some papers were great, some were terrible, most were average. Source: Thompson, B. (2014, March 17). FiveThirtyEight and the End of Average. Retrieved February 16, 2016, from https://stratechery.com/2014/fivethirtyeight-end-average/ NumberofCompanies
Concept 3: The Long Tail and the Hollowing Out of the Middle Post-Internet: Only two business models as average content is a commodity 2. Long Tail Aggregators1. Best in the World Source: Thompson, B. (2014, March 17). FiveThirtyEight and the End of Average. Retrieved February 16, 2016, from https://stratechery.com/2014/fivethirtyeight-end-average/ NumberofCompanies
Tech Creates Two Tiered Markets with No MiddleWorld’sBestLongTail Journalism Video Publishing Talks Courses Credentialing Adaptive Competency Based Education Ecosystem Traditional Degree Image Source: Wikimedia
Concept 4: Develop Lean Startup Experiments to Test Options How to Develop a Global Christian Education Platform Build MeasureLearn Product (start with minimum viable product) Data Pivot Maximize Loop Iteration Speed Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses (First Edition). Crown Business.
Lean Startup Hypothesis Testing on Christian Ecosystem  What’s the best strategy for Christian Courses? ◦ Long Tail vs. World’s Best or both with long tail dominating  What will be the Dominant Distribution Platform for Christian Courses? ◦ World’s Best Distribution: Existing MOOC platforms, Christian MOOC platform, other ◦ Long Tail Distribution: open courses Web, app stores, traditional online education, media platforms (iTunes/YouTube), long tail MOOCs (Udemy/iTunesU) ◦ Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only, all  What is the Dominant Business Model for Christian Courses? ◦ Philanthropy Driven: Bible App, Third Millennium, Khan Academy ◦ University Marketing Investment (Global Branding/Recruitment): Existing MOOCs, Open Courses ◦ Fees/Subscription: Lynda.com, Logos, Bible Mesh, Udemy, Right Now Media  What mechanisms will be used to provide credit and how important will they be? ◦ Mechanism for Credit: Traditional College Credit, GC4, In Country Qualifications, ACE (or similar)Note: Items in bold or crossed out represent the author’s best guess, but only experiments can accurately tell.
Mapping Best Practices for Christian Courseware ThirdMill Harvestime Logos Mobile Open Biola Christian University.or g Biblical Training.org BibleMesh Multiplatform Mobile App, LMS, Web Web Web, Mobile Web, iTunes Mobile, Web, LMS Web, App Web Unbundled All components Yes No Some components No. Bundled with Our Daily Bread No. Bundled as course No. Bundled as course Open License Yes, not Creative Commons Yes No Creative Commons No No No Delivery Methods Online, Blended, Less Designed for Offline Blended, Offline, Not effective online No Online Online Online Online Course Solution Yes only through LMS Very limited quizzes No No Only for fee No quizzes Yes Standardized Content Moderately standardized Not very standardized Moderately standardized Limited packaging as complete courses Standard topics. Non-standard lengths Standard topics Standard topics Affordability Free Free $300-700/course Free Free Fee for credit Free $50-200/course Quality Excellent Ok Excellent Excellent Excellent Good Excellent Languages English, Arabic, Mandarin, Russian, Spanish, Indonesian English, Chinese French, Russian, Sinhala, Spanish, Tagalog, Tamil, Thai, Urdu, Portuguese English English English, Spanish, Portuguese, Chinese, Russian, Arabic English, Hindi, Swahili, Spanish, Arabic No exams
Questions for Discussion Assume Christian Higher Education (CHE) is about 5% of the global market. As the global market grows from 100 million students (5 million in CHE) in 2000 to 263 million in 2025, just to keep pace and not lose market share, CHE would need to grow globally to 13.25 million (163% growth)… What role can we play to help global CHE grow to that level? What would we have to do differently? How do we take steps toward that goal? How do we grow all components of the ecosystem? What are other key assumptions in building an ecosystem we need to test? Is this the best way to frame the challenge?
Outline of Free Course in Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education 1. Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Higher Education 2. Understanding What’s Driving Change in Traditional Higher Education 3. Economics of Traditional Online Education 4. Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms 5. Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher Education 6. Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty 7. Lean Startup for Education 8. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis 9. College Access & the Race between Technology and Education 10. Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation Available on Udemy, iTunes U, YouTube & Slideshare Join the Christian Higher Education Innovation Alliance email group at: groups.google.com/forum
Asset Mapping, Gap Analysis and Strategy to Expand Christian Higher Education Globally View Prezi Presentation at: http://prezi.com/dew6-xudm7jg/ View Mindmap at: https://atlas.mindmup.com/2016/11/611c25c0a28a11e6818d4941b123936e/innovation_in_christian_higher_education/index.html
A Moonshot Vision for Growth of Global Christian Higher Education Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears
Three Possible Futures Technology Platform Dominant Future (40% decline in CHE) State Mega-Universities Dominant Future (40% decline in CHE) Christian Global Educational Platform Growth Future (400% growth in CHE)
Image Source: Wikimedia Adoption Cycle for Post-Secondary Degrees Degree Market Penetration Globally 6.7% (2016) Traditional Higher Education New Models for Post-Secondary Education
ASU’s as a Model for a Global Christian Educational Ecosystem
The 5,000 12 Disciples 120 Disciples Jesus’ Tiered Ministry Model The 3 Disciples
MicroCampuses & Unbundled Models Alternative Credit 10-50 million On Campus Christian Higher Education 5 million Modular Blended Education 5-20 million GC4, etc. Courseware 100’s of millions Global Digital Ecosystem billions ThirdMil, MOOCS, etc. Moonshot Vision: 25 Million Students in Accredited Degree Programs by 2030 (400% growth) Christian Digital Ecosystem
Strategy to Achieve Moonshot Vision: 25 Million Students in Accredited Degree Programs By 2030 (400% growth) Microcampus Students 5-10 million Bachelor’s 5-20 million Alternative Credit 10-50 million Courseware 100’s of millions Christian Digital Ecosystem Billions • College Years 1-3 • Average Cost: $100/year • Building on Christian and secular courseware • Microcampus, online and mobile delivery • Free • First Year Bible Courses • Christian Integration Courses • “Secular” courseware in Christian programs • Average Cost: $1,000/year • Full range of university degrees • Christian Use of “Secular” platforms • Bible App • Christian Subscription Services • Platforms to be identified? • Average Cost: $2,000/year • Transformational Campus Community
Assumptions and Design Parameters for Moonshot Vision  80%+ of growth of CHE will happen in developing countries ◦ Will require price points of $100 to $1,000 per year for CHE ◦ Accredited credentials will continue to be important to this market through 2030 and will be essential for access to jobs ◦ Primary growth market will be the middle class (4.9 billion by 2030), of which almost all have affordable broadband mobile internet access by 2030  Other Design Parameters ◦ Need to design for online, mobile, blended and offline delivery methods ◦ Majority of growth in global CHE will happen in the alternative education ecosystem models as attendance traditional CHE will either decline or have slight growth ◦ Free, open, unbundled courseware will be foundational for growth ◦ Integration between components to provide solutions will be essential Sources Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf Offline and falling behind: Barriers to Internet adoption | McKinsey & Company. http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/offline-and-falling-behind-barriers-to-internet-adoption Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.
Components of a Global Christian Educational Ecosystem Church & Ministry Micro-campusesUnaccredited Christian Models: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University Accredited Christian Models: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights, etc. Secular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School, Bridge International, African Virtual University Accredited Degree Pathways Any Accredited Institution Accepting Alternative Credit: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison, Excelsior), etc. Alternative Credit Mechanisms GC4, ICHE, GlobalAccreditation.com, ACE Credit, Vocational Qualifications, Standardized Tests, PLA, Articulation Agreements See: Christenson Institute Articles (part 1, part 2) CoursewareChristian Free: ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, BiblicalTraining.org, Open Biola, Aqueductproject.org, TransformingTheChurch.org, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Global Reach, Coram Deo, Truthfortheworld, Open Church Christian For Fee/Commercial: BibleMesh.com, Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed, Zondervan, Ligonier Connect “Secular” Courseware: Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study, Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo, Alison, Open Learn, OLI, Lynda Digital Distribution: Apps, Web/LMS, MOOC platform, Bible App, YouTube, iTunes, digital devices, print, church & ministry partnerships, corporate partnerships Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only Bible Schools Christian Liberal Arts Colleges Christian Universities Seminaries Unbundled Disruptive EcosystemBundled Traditional Consultants/System Integrators/Solution Providers: Nonprofit (CaCHE); Commercial: (BibleMesh.com, Lumerit) Students (2016): 5 million Projected Annual Growth: -5% to +5% Non-Credit Students (2016): 1 million For Credit Students (2016): 10,000 Projected Annual Growth: 50% to 1,000% Dominant Business Model: For Fee $10 to $5,000/yr Dominant Business Models: Fremium or Donor- Based What we can influence
Church & Ministry Micro-campuses $1 million to get 500 students to complete an one year alternative degree program ($2,000/student) Accredited Degree Pathways $1 million to accept alternative credit with 1,000 degrees completed ($1,000/degree) Alternative Credit Mechanisms $1 million to get 2,000 students with credit accepted by accredited Christian institutions ($500/student) Courseware Providers $2 million to get 10,000 students in alternative credit programs ($50/student) Goal: Scale Alternative Credit Ecosystem to add 10,000 students ($50/student) Proposed $5 Million Funding Pilot Who are potential funders that might support this vision?
Why Take This Approach for a Funding Pilot?  The most significant “gap” is to get the components of the Christian educational ecosystem to work together ◦ It is critical to invest in all components of the ecosystem as well as the connections between them to create solutions  We need a pilot to “cross the chasm” into mainstream adoption of alternative education ecosystem ◦ We need to conduct “lean startup” experiments to find out how to scale the alternative Christian education ecosystem ◦ We don’t yet know what models will become the dominant solution  “Solutions to many of the world's most difficult social problems don't need to be invented, they only need to be found, funded and scaled” ◦ See next presentation on business models Quote Source: Judith Rodin, president of the Rockefeller Foundation
Characteristics of an Alternative CHE Ecosystem that Crosses the Chasm  Free Courseware ◦ B2C: highly usable, mobile-first design, probably built on Open edX (or similar highly- usable, mobile-friendly platform) ◦ B2B: Highly usable mechanisms that enable church-centered distribution  Business Model ◦ Will build on free courseware with long-term sustainable funding model ◦ Probably less than 10 major Christian players globally, targeting various niches, each with an investment of $10 to $100 million to achieve critical mass ◦ Usability will require tight integration between layers of an unbundled model, but unclear which layers will be re-bundled in dominant business models ◦ Will offer non-credit and for-credit paths  Content ◦ Representing major denominational distinctives (Pentecostal, Reformed, etc.) and languages ◦ Christian integration into specific fields to get jobs: business, tech, etc. targeting majority world
Business Model Examples of Unbundling & Rebundling in Christian Education “Solutions to many of the world's most difficult social problems don't need to be invented, they only need to be found, funded and scaled” - Judith Rodin, president of the Rockefeller Foundation
Modular Universities = Lego Cities Monolithic Bundled Degrees Today Unbundled Education = Lego Blocks Modular Degrees & Credentials = Lego KitsInteroperable Standards Source: http://www.christenseninstitute.org/unlocking-stackable-global-credentials/ http://www.christenseninstitute.org/a-standards-strategy-for-stackable-global-credentials/
Unbundling & Rebundling Strategy for Christian Higher Ed Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Univ. Microcampuses Open Education Industry Certifications LinkedIn & ePortfolios MOOCs & Apps Univ. Accepting Alt. Credit Univ. Top-Up Degrees University Courses Books & Paid Courseware Christian Coursewar e Internships Alternative Ed Providers Alternative Credit Pathways Transformative Courses Church & Ministry Microcampuses Vocational Qualifications (EQF) Student Coaches Christian Worldview Program Designers Online Faculty Employer Partnerships Vertically Integrated University Virtually Integrated University Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Mentoring Small Groups
Model 1: Christian Students at 4 Year Secular Universities Campus Groups: Cru, Intervarsity, etc. + Digital Ecosystem Local Church Christian Courseware Christian Campus Groups Missions Trips & Ministry Volunteering Secular University Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Articulation Agreements for Christian Courses • Pros: Christians can achieve higher access to opportunity, avoids abandoning secular academia • Cons: Christians in secular universities more likely to lose faith • Gap Analysis & Needs: articulation agreements for Christian courses, Christian courseware targeting this market, Effectiveness determined by tightness of integration with student experience • Examples: Cru, Intervarsity, etc. Christian Campus Ecosystem
Model 2: Church/Ministry Microcampus as Alternative to 4 Year University Microcampus at Local Church/Ministry Christian College Courses Internship Practicum at Ministry or Church Secular or Christian University Graduate School Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Articulation Agreements for Christian Associate’s • Pros: Combines complete Christian undergraduate education with ministry involvement, megachurches will have strong offerings here • Cons: Decreased access to opportunity relative to more established universities • Gap Analysis & Needs: scale of organizations pursuing this model, established training & framework for microcampuses • Unbundled Examples: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University, Traditional Examples: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights Secular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, African Virtual University Christian Courseware Alternative Credit MOOCs & Apps Transformative Courses Christian Worldview Program Design Job Local Church or Ministry Teaching Ministry Mentoring Small Groups Microcampus Bachelor’s Degrees
Model 3: Church/Ministry Microcampus as Alternative to Community College Microcampus at Local Church/Ministry Christian College Courses Internship Practicum at Ministry or Church Secular or Christian University Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Articulation Agreements for Christian Associate’s • Pros: Combines Christian general education with improved access of secular university • Cons: Christians in secular universities more likely to lose faith, challenges in accepting credit transfer, less integration between years • Gap Analysis & Needs: articulation agreements, courses & organizations focused on this model, established framework for microcampuses • Examples: City Vision’s Associate’s Degrees • Secular Examples: Straighterline, Saylor Academy Christian Associate’s Degree Christian Courseware Alternative Credit MOOCs & Apps Transformative Courses Christian Worldview Program Design Last 2 Years Local Church or Ministry Teaching Ministry Mentoring Small Groups
Model 4: Unbundled Online Degree Completion University (Top-Up Degree Program) Christian College Courses Internship Practicum at Ministry or Church Secular or Christian University Graduate School Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Industry Certifications • Pros: Provides affordable convenient Christian education as last year or few years of program • Cons: Limited transformation because of lack of physical community • Gap Analysis & Needs: scale of organizations pursuing this model • Examples: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison, Excelsior) Christian Courseware Alternative Credit MOOCs & Apps Transformative Courses Christian Worldview Program Design Job Transfer Credit
Model 5: Theological Institutes Using Courseware to Become Christian Universities (or Launch Online Colleges) Transformative Experience on Campus Locally Developed Courses Internship Practicum at Ministry, Church or Marketplace Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) • Pros: Decreases costs to become Christian University and online college and add degrees beyond theology and Bible • Cons: Outsourcing content will mean less local contextualization, limited languages of courseware • Gap Analysis & Needs: training for schools making this change, organizations supporting this model, pilot models • Examples: unknown Christian Courseware GC4 & Other Alternative Credit MOOCs & Apps Christian Worldview Program Design Job Bachelor’s Degrees Online or in other Fields Campus Theology & Bible Bachelor’s Global Degree Partnerships Vocational Qualifications 1-3 Years Theology & Bible Courses Secular or Christian University Graduate School Church/Ministry Job Marketplace Job
Model 6: Christian Educational Outsourcing, Consulting & Multisided Courseware Market Courseware from Partner Schools Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) • Pros: Decreases start up cost, effective for low volume, acquire outside expertise, can also help with student recruitment • Cons: Can increase per student cost, dependent on outside expertise • Examples: Christian (Lumerit, BibleMesh), Secular (Pearson, Wiley, Bisk, Learning House, Academic Partnerships, 2U) • Gap Analysis & Needs: scalable cost-effective multisided courseware markets Courseware Developed by Consultant Articulation Agreements Other Coursewar e Accreditor Approval Other Partner Schools Outsourced Student Services Outsourced Christian Program Designers Outsourced Online Faculty by Consultant Partner School Faculty Partner School Courses Provided by Consultant Univ. Courses Univ. Faculty & Services Univ. Degree Univ. Experience Provided by Your University Partner School Course Accreditation
Model 7: Christian Digital Subscription Services, Church Curriculum & Lifelong Learning Christian Courseware Subscriptions Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) • Pros: Extremely affordable subscriptions $10-50/month, church-centric distribution • Cons: If there is lack of integration of content with local church community then transformation could be limited • Courseware Subscription Examples: Logos Mobile Ed, ChristianUniversityCertificates.org, Secular (Lynda.com, Great Courses, Skillshare) • Non-Courseware Digital Church Curriculum: RightNow Media, Open Church (free), Group Online • Christian Consumer Digital Subscriptions: Dove, Pureflix, Up Faith, JellyTelly, iBethelTV, Parables TV, Christian Games • Traditional Church Curriculum: Saddleback Pastors.com, Group Publishing, Lifeway Publishing Alternative Credit Christian Program Designers Local Church Top-up Degree Christian Consumer Digital Subscriptions Traditional Church Curriculum Program Design Tools Digital Church Curriculum Ordination Church-Centric Digital Ecosystem Sunday School Small Groups
Model 8: Dual Enrollment, Early College & Homeschool College Homeschool Christian College Courses Homeschool Mentoring Traditional Christian or Secular University or Unbundled Degree Completion Programs Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) • Pros: Shorten Bachelors time/cost allowing faster access to graduate school that might provide higher access • Cons: Increased expectations on high school students • Gap Analysis & Needs: scale of organizations pursuing this model, established training & frameworks • Examples: Credits Before College, Veritycollegeeducation.org, Lumerit, Dual Enrollment Programs at Most Christian Colleges Christian Courseware Alternative Credit MOOCs & Apps Christian Worldview Program Design Homeschool or High School Courses Youth Group College Credit Secular or Christian University Graduate School Job
Course Mentors (SME) Credit by Exam & Prior Learning Degree Paid Courseware Credit by Exam or Competency Evaluation Documented Competencies Industry Certifications No Offering Student Mentors Evaluators Program Faculty Practicum Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Local Church Christian Courseware Western Govenor’s Rebundled Program Optional Self Assembled Components By Individual Secular Model 1: Western Governors University and Similar CBE Programs • Pros: Cost effective way for Christians to get credentials needed for jobs • Cons: No mechanism to integrate Christian components, Christian education is an added “cost” to stripped down unbundled model • Gap Analysis & Needs: Christian courseware targeting this market, churches supporting this model
Secular Model 2: Coding Boot Camps Coding Boot Camp’s Rebundled Program Mentored Project-Based Learning Most Current, Highest Demand Content from Top Practitioners Relationships to Employer Employment Guarantees Brand for Recruiting Raw Brainpower No Offering Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Local Church Christian Courseware Optional Self Assembled Components By Individual • Pros: Cost effective way for Christians to get credentials needed for jobs • Cons: No mechanism to integrate Christian components, Christian education is an added “cost” to stripped down unbundled model • Gap Analysis & Needs: Christian courseware targeting this market, churches supporting this model
Secular Model 3: Vocational Qualifications Vocational Qualifications Rebundled Program (EQF, RQF, etc.) No Offering Level 3 Level 4 Top-up Bachelor’s Degree Level 8 Level 5 Level 7 Master’s Prior Learning Assessment Doctorate Vocational Learning Centers Internships & Externships Employer Networks Industry Certifications On-the-job Training Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Local Church Christian Courseware Optional Self Assembled Components By Individual • Pros: Cost effective way for Christians to get credentials needed for jobs • Cons: No mechanism to integrate Christian components, Christian education is an added “cost” to stripped down unbundled model • Gap Analysis & Needs: Christian courseware targeting this market, churches supporting this model
Principles from Rebundled Business Models  The effectiveness of rebundled business models will depend on the strength of integration between components ◦ Campus groups, churches, secular & Christian courseware  Megachurch microcampuses could become dominant rebundling business model for Christian transformation  Some people will assemble unbundled components on their own, but most will prefer to buy predesigned bundles (like Lego kits)  Mashups between business models will be common  In an unbundled world, getting people to pay for bundled Christian transformation in CHE may be more challenging  What will be the dominant business models for CHE in an unbundled world is yet to be determined

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Principles for Building a Modular Global Christian Educational Ecosystem

  • 1.
    Principles for Buildinga Modular Global Christian Educational Ecosystem Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears This talk is at: https://youtu.be/BdbfvMWl-_o Slideshare: https://goo.gl/aZGDDp
  • 2.
    The Need 1:Rapid Growth of Higher Education Globally 100 Million Students in 2000 263 Million Students in 2025 (84% of growth in the developing world) Sources Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572. Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf 137 Million New Students Per Year in Developing Countries by 2025
  • 3.
    The Need 2:The Rise of Non-Western Christianity
  • 4.
    - 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000 1,000,000,000 1,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,600,000,000 1,800,000,000 2,000,000,000 1800 1900 19702000 2007 2025 Christian Membership by Region West South Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
  • 5.
    1900 1970 20002007 2025 South 21% 59% 86% 91% 99% West 79% 41% 14% 9% 1% 21% 59% 86% 91% 99% 79% 41% 14% 9% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Growth of Christianity by Region Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf
  • 6.
    The Need 3:Consolidation & Christian Mega-universities Liberty U 43% Grand Canyon U 39% All of CCCU 18% Estimated Christian Higher Education Growth Since 2005 Total Growth: 175,808 students Sources: Grand Canyon & Liberty U self-reporting, CCCU Enrollment Report.
  • 7.
    Will Education Consolidationfollow Media Consolidation?
  • 8.
    Possible Future ofHigher Education in 2030? Consolidation & Platform Coopetition Image Source: Wikimedia State Owned Mega-universities with 1 million+ Students Technology Platform Educational Networks Global Christian Education Platform
  • 9.
    Three Possible Futures TechnologyPlatform Dominant Future (40% decline in CHE) State Mega-Universities Dominant Future (40% decline in CHE) Christian Global Educational Platform Growth Future (400% growth in CHE)
  • 10.
    Framing the Challenge Inthe face of these trends, how can CHE achieve the preferred future of dramatic global growth? Global HE Growth Consolidation Growth of Christianity in the Majority World
  • 11.
    10 million+ students at$1,000/student Radically Affordable Mobile Education The Need for Disruptive Innovation Traditional Christian Higher Education (A few million students At $10,000/student) 10 x More Users 1/10th Cost Radically Affordable Blended Education 100 million+ students at $50/student
  • 12.
    Mobile Vision: AccreditedMobile Courses to Millions Courses Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4) The Bible App Quality Mobile Courses + Accreditation +
  • 13.
    Concept 1: Roleof Modularity & Unbundling in Disruptive Innovation Unbundled (Modular) vs. Interdependent Architectures Over Time Image Source: Wikimedia
  • 14.
    Modular Universities = LegoCities Monolithic Bundled Degrees Today Unbundled Education = Lego Blocks Modular Degrees & Credentials = Lego KitsInteroperable Standards Source: http://www.christenseninstitute.org/unlocking-stackable-global-credentials/ http://www.christenseninstitute.org/a-standards-strategy-for-stackable-global-credentials/
  • 15.
    Unbundling & RebundlingStrategy for Christian Higher Ed Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Univ. Microcampuses Open Education Industry Certifications LinkedIn & ePortfolios MOOCs & Apps Univ. Accepting Alt. Credit Univ. Top-Up Degrees University Courses Books & Paid Courseware Christian Coursewar e Internships Alternative Ed Providers Alternative Credit Pathways Transformative Courses Church & Ministry Microcampuses Vocational Qualifications (EQF) Student Coaches Christian Worldview Program Designers • Course market becomes more like book and software markets • Reduce cost & improve quality through outsourcing and partnerships • Christian content becomes more modular and less interdependent where possible • University becomes system integrator of content and tech platforms. Online Faculty Employer Partnerships Specialization increases productivity and reduces costs Course mentors often can be Church-based Partnerships with modular providers (especially in underdeveloped communities) creates jobs, reduce cost & improve quality Improve signaling & networking of “bottom half” to new value networks Vertically Integrated University Virtually Integrated University Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Transformation is a core competency of the Church Mentoring Small Groups
  • 16.
    Dead Capital $9.3 trillion 400million in India with No Identification Undocumented Alternative Education Trillions of $ of lost value? Concept 2: Technology Presents an Unprecedented Opportunity to Expand and Document Alternative Education
  • 17.
    Is Education MoreSecular or Christian Globally? Perry L. Glanzer, "Dispersing the Light: The Status of Christian Higher Education around the Globe," Christian Scholar's Review 43 (2013): 321-43. Status of Global Mission 2014, Todd Johnson http://www.gordonconwell.edu/resources/documents/statusofglobalmission.pdf It depends on how you frame the question
  • 18.
    The Majority ofChristian Education is Alternative Education ACCREDITED EDUCATION NONTRADITIONAL, BUT ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION (GROWING DRAMATICALLY) Bible Colleges Christian Liberal Arts Colleges Christian Universities Seminaries Bible Institutes Ministry Experience Professional Experience Alternative Education Courses Bible Studies Sermons Educational Discipleship Programs Christian Radio, TV, Websites, Books & Apps Small Groups NONTRADITIONAL, NON- ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION PRIMARILY PARACHURCH PRIMARILY CHURCH Correspondence & Continuing Ed Conferences
  • 19.
    Industry Map: Supportinga Healthy Christian Tertiary Educational Ecosystem ACCREDITED HIGHER EDUCATION NONTRADITIONAL, BUT ACCREDITABLE EDUCATION MOOCs & Open Ed Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study, Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo Alison, YouTube, iTunesU, Open Learn, OLI Christian Mega Universities Liberty, Grand Canyon Christian Universities CCCU, IAPCHE, Overseas Council Paid Courseware Pearson, Mcgraw-Hill, Lynda.com, Skillshare, Pluralsight, Dream Degree Acrobatiq, Cengage, CogBooks, Flat World Bible Colleges ABHE Schools, ICETE, ATS Online Christian Universities CCCU, TRACS, DEAC, IAPCHE, ICHE Alternative Credit Providers Straighterline, Saylor, Ed4Online EdX, JumpCourse, Pearson, Sofia UC Irvine Extension, Modern States Christian Free & Open Courses ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, Global University Global Reach, Aqueductproject.org Open Biola, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, TransformingtheChurch OpenSeminary.com, BiblicalTraining.org, Coram Deo, Multiply Movement, Truthfortheworld.org Commercial Christian Courseware Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed, Zondervan, BibleMesh.com, Ligonier Connect Bible Institutes 10’s of thousands globally Open Textbooks saylor.org/books, openstaxcollege.org, courses.candelalearning.com/catalog/lumen collegeopentextbooks.org, open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/ Missions/Ministry Training i.e. YWAM U Nations Vocational Qualification Providers >50% of global market, 10’s of thousands of Training Centers Ministry & Professional Experience Prior Learning Assessment Christian Continuing Education Insight.org, Lifepointemedia.com, Lifeway.com, Livingontheedge.org, Precept.org, Sampsonresources.com, Sampson.ed.com, Walkthru.org, Answersingenesis.org, Bsfinternational.org, Christiancounselingceu.com Secular Partners Seminaries ATS TERTIARYEDUCATION Home School College Credit veritycollegeeducation.org, creditsbeforecollege.com Unaccredited Ordination Training Berean School, Lamp Seminary Church & Ministry Micro-Campuses Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights, CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University Secular Micro-campuses Kepler, Minerva, Coursera Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School, Bridge International Academies
  • 20.
    We can’t repeatthe mistakes of the past by expecting the majority world to wear the “suits” of Western accreditation, but there still must be appropriate standards and signals needed. Source: Wikipedia Article on Assimilation of Native Americans Higher Education vs. Tertiary Education vs. Vocational Education
  • 21.
    Components of aGlobal Christian Educational Ecosystem Church & Ministry Micro-campusesUnaccredited Christian Models: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University Accredited Christian Models: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights, etc. Secular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School, Bridge International, African Virtual University Accredited Degree Pathways Any Accredited Institution Accepting Alternative Credit: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison, Excelsior), etc. Alternative Credit Mechanisms GC4, ICHE, GlobalAccreditation.com, ACE Credit, Vocational Qualifications, Standardized Tests, PLA, Articulation Agreements See: Christenson Institute Articles (part 1, part 2) CoursewareChristian Free: ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, BiblicalTraining.org, Open Biola, Aqueductproject.org, TransformingTheChurch.org, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Global Reach, Coram Deo, Truthfortheworld, Open Church Christian For Fee/Commercial: BibleMesh.com, Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed, Zondervan, Ligonier Connect “Secular” Courseware: Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study, Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo, Alison, Open Learn, OLI, Lynda Digital Distribution: Apps, Web/LMS, MOOC platform, Bible App, YouTube, iTunes, digital devices, print, church & ministry partnerships, corporate partnerships Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only Bible Schools Christian Liberal Arts Colleges Christian Universities Seminaries Unbundled Disruptive EcosystemBundled Traditional Consultants/System Integrators/Solution Providers: Nonprofit (CaCHE); Commercial: (BibleMesh.com, Lumerit) Students (2016): 5 million Projected Annual Growth: -5% to +5% Non-Credit Students (2016): 1 million For Credit Students (2016): 10,000 Projected Annual Growth: 50% to 1,000% Dominant Business Model: For Fee $10 to $5,000/yr Dominant Business Models: Fremium or Donor- Based What we can influence
  • 22.
    Global Christian CollegeCredit Consortium (GC4) Path to a $5,000 degree Level 3 Freshman Level 4 Sophomore $3,500 $3,500 (CVU) or $100 + partner tuition $100 + partner tuition $100 + partner tuition City Vision DEAC Accredited University GC4 (in TechMission) as Qualifi Qualification University Degree (1 year) Level 5 Junior
  • 23.
    GC4 Plan: Providea Global Alternative Path for Course Level Accreditation  Global Christian College Credit Consortium (GC4) is work area of CHIEA to provide course level accreditation to ministry schools ◦ We are doing this under Qualifi, which offers accreditation under the vocational frameworks structure of Ofqual in the UK. Level 3, 4 & 5 certificates/diplomas may be recognized in many commonwealth countries, and are considered accredited for transfer credit evaluation. ◦ May also develop multilateral alliance of Christian articulation agreements similar to CASE ◦ GC4 legally resides as a program of the Christian nonprofit TechMission  Process and Requirements ◦ Review of curriculum by TechMission and Qualifi to ensure that it meets standards ◦ Requires that faculty graders have accredited award at the same level as those they are grading (rather than a level above as most accreditation) ◦ Partner must provide documentation trail of assignments and grading. Right now this means tracking assignments and grading in an online or mobile system.  www.globalchristiancollege.org Theoretical Framework: Video, my Clayton Christensen Institute blog post (Part 1, Part 2)
  • 24.
    Lean Startup HypothesisTesting on Christian Ecosystem  What’s the best strategy for Christian Courses? ◦ Long Tail vs. World’s Best or both with long tail dominating  What will be the Dominant Distribution Platform for Christian Courses? ◦ World’s Best Distribution: Existing MOOC platforms, Christian MOOC platform, other ◦ Long Tail Distribution: open courses Web, app stores, traditional online education, media platforms (iTunes/YouTube), long tail MOOCs (Udemy/iTunesU) ◦ Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only, all  What is the Dominant Business Model for Christian Courses? ◦ Philanthropy Driven: Bible App, Third Millennium, Khan Academy ◦ University Marketing Investment (Global Branding/Recruitment): Existing MOOCs, Open Courses ◦ Fees/Subscription: Lynda.com, Logos, Bible Mesh, Udemy, Right Now Media  What mechanisms will be used to provide credit and how important will they be? ◦ Mechanism for Credit: Traditional College Credit, GC4, In Country Qualifications, ACE (or similar)Note: Items in bold or crossed out represent the author’s best guess, but only experiments can accurately tell.
  • 25.
    Steps of QualityImprovement in Disruptive Innovation Image Source: Wikimedia 2. Complete Open Courses 1. Open Videos/Books 3.Certificate Courses 4. Microdegrees 5. Alternative Credit Courses 6. Blended Learning at Microcampuses for Accredited Vocational Diplomas 7. Blended Learning at Microcampuses for University Degrees 8. Blended Personalized Learning from Millions of Modular Adaptive Courses for University Degrees
  • 26.
    Concept 3: TheLong Tail: The 80/20 Rule becomes the 60/40 Rule after the Internet 80% of profit comes from 20% of products 60% of profit comes from 40% of products Popularity Products The Long Tail Blockbuster Hits Unpopular YouTube Content
  • 27.
    Effects of theLong Tail & Higher Education  Long Tail Increases Diversity of Content ◦ Video Stores (Blockbuster): 80% of rentals were recent “blockbusters,” only carried 75 documentaries ◦ Amazon: carries 17,061 documentaries (of a possible 40,000) ◦ Long Tail of Search Terms (Website Example): Top 500 search terms provide 19.5% of visitors 604,916 search terms provide 80.5% of visitors  Non-Western culture voices are largely on the long tail. ◦ The Internet extends the long tail. It decreases the proportion controlled by big media and traditional universities from 80% to around 60% which gives more room for non-Western voices. ◦ Open strategy maximizes visibility of non-Western voices.
  • 28.
    Concept 3: TheLong Tail & the Hollowing of the Middle Newspaper Consolidation as a Case Study for Higher Education Pre-Internet, some papers were great, some were terrible, most were average. Source: Thompson, B. (2014, March 17). FiveThirtyEight and the End of Average. Retrieved February 16, 2016, from https://stratechery.com/2014/fivethirtyeight-end-average/ NumberofCompanies
  • 29.
    Concept 3: TheLong Tail and the Hollowing Out of the Middle Post-Internet: Only two business models as average content is a commodity 2. Long Tail Aggregators1. Best in the World Source: Thompson, B. (2014, March 17). FiveThirtyEight and the End of Average. Retrieved February 16, 2016, from https://stratechery.com/2014/fivethirtyeight-end-average/ NumberofCompanies
  • 30.
    Tech Creates TwoTiered Markets with No MiddleWorld’sBestLongTail Journalism Video Publishing Talks Courses Credentialing Adaptive Competency Based Education Ecosystem Traditional Degree Image Source: Wikimedia
  • 31.
    Concept 4: DevelopLean Startup Experiments to Test Options How to Develop a Global Christian Education Platform Build MeasureLearn Product (start with minimum viable product) Data Pivot Maximize Loop Iteration Speed Ries, E. (2011). The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses (First Edition). Crown Business.
  • 32.
    Lean Startup HypothesisTesting on Christian Ecosystem  What’s the best strategy for Christian Courses? ◦ Long Tail vs. World’s Best or both with long tail dominating  What will be the Dominant Distribution Platform for Christian Courses? ◦ World’s Best Distribution: Existing MOOC platforms, Christian MOOC platform, other ◦ Long Tail Distribution: open courses Web, app stores, traditional online education, media platforms (iTunes/YouTube), long tail MOOCs (Udemy/iTunesU) ◦ Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only, all  What is the Dominant Business Model for Christian Courses? ◦ Philanthropy Driven: Bible App, Third Millennium, Khan Academy ◦ University Marketing Investment (Global Branding/Recruitment): Existing MOOCs, Open Courses ◦ Fees/Subscription: Lynda.com, Logos, Bible Mesh, Udemy, Right Now Media  What mechanisms will be used to provide credit and how important will they be? ◦ Mechanism for Credit: Traditional College Credit, GC4, In Country Qualifications, ACE (or similar)Note: Items in bold or crossed out represent the author’s best guess, but only experiments can accurately tell.
  • 33.
    Mapping Best Practicesfor Christian Courseware ThirdMill Harvestime Logos Mobile Open Biola Christian University.or g Biblical Training.org BibleMesh Multiplatform Mobile App, LMS, Web Web Web, Mobile Web, iTunes Mobile, Web, LMS Web, App Web Unbundled All components Yes No Some components No. Bundled with Our Daily Bread No. Bundled as course No. Bundled as course Open License Yes, not Creative Commons Yes No Creative Commons No No No Delivery Methods Online, Blended, Less Designed for Offline Blended, Offline, Not effective online No Online Online Online Online Course Solution Yes only through LMS Very limited quizzes No No Only for fee No quizzes Yes Standardized Content Moderately standardized Not very standardized Moderately standardized Limited packaging as complete courses Standard topics. Non-standard lengths Standard topics Standard topics Affordability Free Free $300-700/course Free Free Fee for credit Free $50-200/course Quality Excellent Ok Excellent Excellent Excellent Good Excellent Languages English, Arabic, Mandarin, Russian, Spanish, Indonesian English, Chinese French, Russian, Sinhala, Spanish, Tagalog, Tamil, Thai, Urdu, Portuguese English English English, Spanish, Portuguese, Chinese, Russian, Arabic English, Hindi, Swahili, Spanish, Arabic No exams
  • 34.
    Questions for Discussion AssumeChristian Higher Education (CHE) is about 5% of the global market. As the global market grows from 100 million students (5 million in CHE) in 2000 to 263 million in 2025, just to keep pace and not lose market share, CHE would need to grow globally to 13.25 million (163% growth)… What role can we play to help global CHE grow to that level? What would we have to do differently? How do we take steps toward that goal? How do we grow all components of the ecosystem? What are other key assumptions in building an ecosystem we need to test? Is this the best way to frame the challenge?
  • 35.
    Outline of FreeCourse in Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education 1. Disruptive Innovation Theory Applied to Higher Education 2. Understanding What’s Driving Change in Traditional Higher Education 3. Economics of Traditional Online Education 4. Emerging Markets and Courseware Platforms 5. Unbundling and Rebundling Strategies in Higher Education 6. Unbundling and the Changing Role of Faculty 7. Lean Startup for Education 8. Demographic and Economic Trend Analysis 9. College Access & the Race between Technology and Education 10. Change Agents & Diffusion of Innovation Available on Udemy, iTunes U, YouTube & Slideshare Join the Christian Higher Education Innovation Alliance email group at: groups.google.com/forum
  • 36.
    Asset Mapping, GapAnalysis and Strategy to Expand Christian Higher Education Globally View Prezi Presentation at: http://prezi.com/dew6-xudm7jg/ View Mindmap at: https://atlas.mindmup.com/2016/11/611c25c0a28a11e6818d4941b123936e/innovation_in_christian_higher_education/index.html
  • 37.
    A Moonshot Visionfor Growth of Global Christian Higher Education Dr. Andrew Sears President, City Vision University www.cityvision.edu andrew@cityvision.edu https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewsears
  • 38.
    Three Possible Futures TechnologyPlatform Dominant Future (40% decline in CHE) State Mega-Universities Dominant Future (40% decline in CHE) Christian Global Educational Platform Growth Future (400% growth in CHE)
  • 39.
    Image Source: Wikimedia AdoptionCycle for Post-Secondary Degrees Degree Market Penetration Globally 6.7% (2016) Traditional Higher Education New Models for Post-Secondary Education
  • 40.
    ASU’s as aModel for a Global Christian Educational Ecosystem
  • 41.
    The 5,000 12 Disciples 120Disciples Jesus’ Tiered Ministry Model The 3 Disciples
  • 42.
    MicroCampuses & Unbundled Models AlternativeCredit 10-50 million On Campus Christian Higher Education 5 million Modular Blended Education 5-20 million GC4, etc. Courseware 100’s of millions Global Digital Ecosystem billions ThirdMil, MOOCS, etc. Moonshot Vision: 25 Million Students in Accredited Degree Programs by 2030 (400% growth) Christian Digital Ecosystem
  • 43.
    Strategy to AchieveMoonshot Vision: 25 Million Students in Accredited Degree Programs By 2030 (400% growth) Microcampus Students 5-10 million Bachelor’s 5-20 million Alternative Credit 10-50 million Courseware 100’s of millions Christian Digital Ecosystem Billions • College Years 1-3 • Average Cost: $100/year • Building on Christian and secular courseware • Microcampus, online and mobile delivery • Free • First Year Bible Courses • Christian Integration Courses • “Secular” courseware in Christian programs • Average Cost: $1,000/year • Full range of university degrees • Christian Use of “Secular” platforms • Bible App • Christian Subscription Services • Platforms to be identified? • Average Cost: $2,000/year • Transformational Campus Community
  • 44.
    Assumptions and DesignParameters for Moonshot Vision  80%+ of growth of CHE will happen in developing countries ◦ Will require price points of $100 to $1,000 per year for CHE ◦ Accredited credentials will continue to be important to this market through 2030 and will be essential for access to jobs ◦ Primary growth market will be the middle class (4.9 billion by 2030), of which almost all have affordable broadband mobile internet access by 2030  Other Design Parameters ◦ Need to design for online, mobile, blended and offline delivery methods ◦ Majority of growth in global CHE will happen in the alternative education ecosystem models as attendance traditional CHE will either decline or have slight growth ◦ Free, open, unbundled courseware will be foundational for growth ◦ Integration between components to provide solutions will be essential Sources Lutz, W., & KC, S. K. (2013). Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections. UNDP-HDRO Occasional Papers, (2013/04). Retrieved from http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/hdro_1304_lutz_kc.pdf Offline and falling behind: Barriers to Internet adoption | McKinsey & Company. http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/high-tech/our-insights/offline-and-falling-behind-barriers-to-internet-adoption Karaim, R. (2011). Expanding higher education: should every country have a world-class university. CQ Global Researcher, 5(22), 525–572.
  • 45.
    Components of aGlobal Christian Educational Ecosystem Church & Ministry Micro-campusesUnaccredited Christian Models: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University Accredited Christian Models: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights, etc. Secular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, Khan Lab School, Bridge International, African Virtual University Accredited Degree Pathways Any Accredited Institution Accepting Alternative Credit: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison, Excelsior), etc. Alternative Credit Mechanisms GC4, ICHE, GlobalAccreditation.com, ACE Credit, Vocational Qualifications, Standardized Tests, PLA, Articulation Agreements See: Christenson Institute Articles (part 1, part 2) CoursewareChristian Free: ThirdMill.org, ChristianUniversity.org, Harvestime.org, BiblicalTraining.org, Open Biola, Aqueductproject.org, TransformingTheChurch.org, Covenant Seminary, Regent Luxvera, Christian Leaders Institute, Global Reach, Coram Deo, Truthfortheworld, Open Church Christian For Fee/Commercial: BibleMesh.com, Right Now Media, Lumerit, Logos Mobile Ed, Zondervan, Ligonier Connect “Secular” Courseware: Udemy, Coursera, EdX, Futurelearn, Open2study, Open University, Udemy, Khan Academy, Duolingo, Alison, Open Learn, OLI, Lynda Digital Distribution: Apps, Web/LMS, MOOC platform, Bible App, YouTube, iTunes, digital devices, print, church & ministry partnerships, corporate partnerships Delivery Method: offline-only, blended, online-only, mobile-only Bible Schools Christian Liberal Arts Colleges Christian Universities Seminaries Unbundled Disruptive EcosystemBundled Traditional Consultants/System Integrators/Solution Providers: Nonprofit (CaCHE); Commercial: (BibleMesh.com, Lumerit) Students (2016): 5 million Projected Annual Growth: -5% to +5% Non-Credit Students (2016): 1 million For Credit Students (2016): 10,000 Projected Annual Growth: 50% to 1,000% Dominant Business Model: For Fee $10 to $5,000/yr Dominant Business Models: Fremium or Donor- Based What we can influence
  • 46.
    Church & MinistryMicro-campuses $1 million to get 500 students to complete an one year alternative degree program ($2,000/student) Accredited Degree Pathways $1 million to accept alternative credit with 1,000 degrees completed ($1,000/degree) Alternative Credit Mechanisms $1 million to get 2,000 students with credit accepted by accredited Christian institutions ($500/student) Courseware Providers $2 million to get 10,000 students in alternative credit programs ($50/student) Goal: Scale Alternative Credit Ecosystem to add 10,000 students ($50/student) Proposed $5 Million Funding Pilot Who are potential funders that might support this vision?
  • 47.
    Why Take ThisApproach for a Funding Pilot?  The most significant “gap” is to get the components of the Christian educational ecosystem to work together ◦ It is critical to invest in all components of the ecosystem as well as the connections between them to create solutions  We need a pilot to “cross the chasm” into mainstream adoption of alternative education ecosystem ◦ We need to conduct “lean startup” experiments to find out how to scale the alternative Christian education ecosystem ◦ We don’t yet know what models will become the dominant solution  “Solutions to many of the world's most difficult social problems don't need to be invented, they only need to be found, funded and scaled” ◦ See next presentation on business models Quote Source: Judith Rodin, president of the Rockefeller Foundation
  • 48.
    Characteristics of anAlternative CHE Ecosystem that Crosses the Chasm  Free Courseware ◦ B2C: highly usable, mobile-first design, probably built on Open edX (or similar highly- usable, mobile-friendly platform) ◦ B2B: Highly usable mechanisms that enable church-centered distribution  Business Model ◦ Will build on free courseware with long-term sustainable funding model ◦ Probably less than 10 major Christian players globally, targeting various niches, each with an investment of $10 to $100 million to achieve critical mass ◦ Usability will require tight integration between layers of an unbundled model, but unclear which layers will be re-bundled in dominant business models ◦ Will offer non-credit and for-credit paths  Content ◦ Representing major denominational distinctives (Pentecostal, Reformed, etc.) and languages ◦ Christian integration into specific fields to get jobs: business, tech, etc. targeting majority world
  • 49.
    Business Model Examplesof Unbundling & Rebundling in Christian Education “Solutions to many of the world's most difficult social problems don't need to be invented, they only need to be found, funded and scaled” - Judith Rodin, president of the Rockefeller Foundation
  • 50.
    Modular Universities = LegoCities Monolithic Bundled Degrees Today Unbundled Education = Lego Blocks Modular Degrees & Credentials = Lego KitsInteroperable Standards Source: http://www.christenseninstitute.org/unlocking-stackable-global-credentials/ http://www.christenseninstitute.org/a-standards-strategy-for-stackable-global-credentials/
  • 51.
    Unbundling & RebundlingStrategy for Christian Higher Ed Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Univ. Microcampuses Open Education Industry Certifications LinkedIn & ePortfolios MOOCs & Apps Univ. Accepting Alt. Credit Univ. Top-Up Degrees University Courses Books & Paid Courseware Christian Coursewar e Internships Alternative Ed Providers Alternative Credit Pathways Transformative Courses Church & Ministry Microcampuses Vocational Qualifications (EQF) Student Coaches Christian Worldview Program Designers Online Faculty Employer Partnerships Vertically Integrated University Virtually Integrated University Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Mentoring Small Groups
  • 52.
    Model 1: ChristianStudents at 4 Year Secular Universities Campus Groups: Cru, Intervarsity, etc. + Digital Ecosystem Local Church Christian Courseware Christian Campus Groups Missions Trips & Ministry Volunteering Secular University Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Articulation Agreements for Christian Courses • Pros: Christians can achieve higher access to opportunity, avoids abandoning secular academia • Cons: Christians in secular universities more likely to lose faith • Gap Analysis & Needs: articulation agreements for Christian courses, Christian courseware targeting this market, Effectiveness determined by tightness of integration with student experience • Examples: Cru, Intervarsity, etc. Christian Campus Ecosystem
  • 53.
    Model 2: Church/MinistryMicrocampus as Alternative to 4 Year University Microcampus at Local Church/Ministry Christian College Courses Internship Practicum at Ministry or Church Secular or Christian University Graduate School Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Articulation Agreements for Christian Associate’s • Pros: Combines complete Christian undergraduate education with ministry involvement, megachurches will have strong offerings here • Cons: Decreased access to opportunity relative to more established universities • Gap Analysis & Needs: scale of organizations pursuing this model, established training & framework for microcampuses • Unbundled Examples: CaCHE, Virtues Campus, Foundation University, Traditional Examples: Southeastern, Northwest, Kings University, Kirkland, Beulah Heights Secular Models: Kepler, Minerva, Coursara Learning Hubs, edX U.Lab, African Virtual University Christian Courseware Alternative Credit MOOCs & Apps Transformative Courses Christian Worldview Program Design Job Local Church or Ministry Teaching Ministry Mentoring Small Groups Microcampus Bachelor’s Degrees
  • 54.
    Model 3: Church/MinistryMicrocampus as Alternative to Community College Microcampus at Local Church/Ministry Christian College Courses Internship Practicum at Ministry or Church Secular or Christian University Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Articulation Agreements for Christian Associate’s • Pros: Combines Christian general education with improved access of secular university • Cons: Christians in secular universities more likely to lose faith, challenges in accepting credit transfer, less integration between years • Gap Analysis & Needs: articulation agreements, courses & organizations focused on this model, established framework for microcampuses • Examples: City Vision’s Associate’s Degrees • Secular Examples: Straighterline, Saylor Academy Christian Associate’s Degree Christian Courseware Alternative Credit MOOCs & Apps Transformative Courses Christian Worldview Program Design Last 2 Years Local Church or Ministry Teaching Ministry Mentoring Small Groups
  • 55.
    Model 4: UnbundledOnline Degree Completion University (Top-Up Degree Program) Christian College Courses Internship Practicum at Ministry or Church Secular or Christian University Graduate School Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Industry Certifications • Pros: Provides affordable convenient Christian education as last year or few years of program • Cons: Limited transformation because of lack of physical community • Gap Analysis & Needs: scale of organizations pursuing this model • Examples: City Vision, Secular (Thomas Edison, Excelsior) Christian Courseware Alternative Credit MOOCs & Apps Transformative Courses Christian Worldview Program Design Job Transfer Credit
  • 56.
    Model 5: TheologicalInstitutes Using Courseware to Become Christian Universities (or Launch Online Colleges) Transformative Experience on Campus Locally Developed Courses Internship Practicum at Ministry, Church or Marketplace Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) • Pros: Decreases costs to become Christian University and online college and add degrees beyond theology and Bible • Cons: Outsourcing content will mean less local contextualization, limited languages of courseware • Gap Analysis & Needs: training for schools making this change, organizations supporting this model, pilot models • Examples: unknown Christian Courseware GC4 & Other Alternative Credit MOOCs & Apps Christian Worldview Program Design Job Bachelor’s Degrees Online or in other Fields Campus Theology & Bible Bachelor’s Global Degree Partnerships Vocational Qualifications 1-3 Years Theology & Bible Courses Secular or Christian University Graduate School Church/Ministry Job Marketplace Job
  • 57.
    Model 6: ChristianEducational Outsourcing, Consulting & Multisided Courseware Market Courseware from Partner Schools Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) • Pros: Decreases start up cost, effective for low volume, acquire outside expertise, can also help with student recruitment • Cons: Can increase per student cost, dependent on outside expertise • Examples: Christian (Lumerit, BibleMesh), Secular (Pearson, Wiley, Bisk, Learning House, Academic Partnerships, 2U) • Gap Analysis & Needs: scalable cost-effective multisided courseware markets Courseware Developed by Consultant Articulation Agreements Other Coursewar e Accreditor Approval Other Partner Schools Outsourced Student Services Outsourced Christian Program Designers Outsourced Online Faculty by Consultant Partner School Faculty Partner School Courses Provided by Consultant Univ. Courses Univ. Faculty & Services Univ. Degree Univ. Experience Provided by Your University Partner School Course Accreditation
  • 58.
    Model 7: ChristianDigital Subscription Services, Church Curriculum & Lifelong Learning Christian Courseware Subscriptions Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) • Pros: Extremely affordable subscriptions $10-50/month, church-centric distribution • Cons: If there is lack of integration of content with local church community then transformation could be limited • Courseware Subscription Examples: Logos Mobile Ed, ChristianUniversityCertificates.org, Secular (Lynda.com, Great Courses, Skillshare) • Non-Courseware Digital Church Curriculum: RightNow Media, Open Church (free), Group Online • Christian Consumer Digital Subscriptions: Dove, Pureflix, Up Faith, JellyTelly, iBethelTV, Parables TV, Christian Games • Traditional Church Curriculum: Saddleback Pastors.com, Group Publishing, Lifeway Publishing Alternative Credit Christian Program Designers Local Church Top-up Degree Christian Consumer Digital Subscriptions Traditional Church Curriculum Program Design Tools Digital Church Curriculum Ordination Church-Centric Digital Ecosystem Sunday School Small Groups
  • 59.
    Model 8: DualEnrollment, Early College & Homeschool College Homeschool Christian College Courses Homeschool Mentoring Traditional Christian or Secular University or Unbundled Degree Completion Programs Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) • Pros: Shorten Bachelors time/cost allowing faster access to graduate school that might provide higher access • Cons: Increased expectations on high school students • Gap Analysis & Needs: scale of organizations pursuing this model, established training & frameworks • Examples: Credits Before College, Veritycollegeeducation.org, Lumerit, Dual Enrollment Programs at Most Christian Colleges Christian Courseware Alternative Credit MOOCs & Apps Christian Worldview Program Design Homeschool or High School Courses Youth Group College Credit Secular or Christian University Graduate School Job
  • 60.
    Course Mentors (SME) Credit byExam & Prior Learning Degree Paid Courseware Credit by Exam or Competency Evaluation Documented Competencies Industry Certifications No Offering Student Mentors Evaluators Program Faculty Practicum Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Local Church Christian Courseware Western Govenor’s Rebundled Program Optional Self Assembled Components By Individual Secular Model 1: Western Governors University and Similar CBE Programs • Pros: Cost effective way for Christians to get credentials needed for jobs • Cons: No mechanism to integrate Christian components, Christian education is an added “cost” to stripped down unbundled model • Gap Analysis & Needs: Christian courseware targeting this market, churches supporting this model
  • 61.
    Secular Model 2:Coding Boot Camps Coding Boot Camp’s Rebundled Program Mentored Project-Based Learning Most Current, Highest Demand Content from Top Practitioners Relationships to Employer Employment Guarantees Brand for Recruiting Raw Brainpower No Offering Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Local Church Christian Courseware Optional Self Assembled Components By Individual • Pros: Cost effective way for Christians to get credentials needed for jobs • Cons: No mechanism to integrate Christian components, Christian education is an added “cost” to stripped down unbundled model • Gap Analysis & Needs: Christian courseware targeting this market, churches supporting this model
  • 62.
    Secular Model 3:Vocational Qualifications Vocational Qualifications Rebundled Program (EQF, RQF, etc.) No Offering Level 3 Level 4 Top-up Bachelor’s Degree Level 8 Level 5 Level 7 Master’s Prior Learning Assessment Doctorate Vocational Learning Centers Internships & Externships Employer Networks Industry Certifications On-the-job Training Transformative Experience Access to Opportunity Metacognition & Skills Knowledge Acquisition (content) Local Church Christian Courseware Optional Self Assembled Components By Individual • Pros: Cost effective way for Christians to get credentials needed for jobs • Cons: No mechanism to integrate Christian components, Christian education is an added “cost” to stripped down unbundled model • Gap Analysis & Needs: Christian courseware targeting this market, churches supporting this model
  • 63.
    Principles from RebundledBusiness Models  The effectiveness of rebundled business models will depend on the strength of integration between components ◦ Campus groups, churches, secular & Christian courseware  Megachurch microcampuses could become dominant rebundling business model for Christian transformation  Some people will assemble unbundled components on their own, but most will prefer to buy predesigned bundles (like Lego kits)  Mashups between business models will be common  In an unbundled world, getting people to pay for bundled Christian transformation in CHE may be more challenging  What will be the dominant business models for CHE in an unbundled world is yet to be determined

Editor's Notes

  • #2 My background. Grew up poor. Went to school at MIT. Good Will Hunting. Dot.com. Venture Capital. 15 years educating the poor. 2008 became a college president. A few years ago completed my doctoral dissertation on Disruptive Innovation in Higher Education.
  • #3 Top 1% of global income means you make more than $32,400. Cost plus pricing (traditional) vs. target costing Tertiary Education Stats from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOTjtsrKOqI By 2050, between 1 and 2.5 billion people will have a tertiary education. Market: $900 billion market in 2005, $1.5 trillion in 2012, $2.5 trillion 2017 # students outside Western countries: 30 million in 1980, 140 million in 2010 84% of growth from developing countries from 2000 to 2010 Mexico 1.9 million to 2.8 million in past decade India: under 10 million to over 20 million in past decade
  • #4 Jesus said, “I do what I see the Father doing.” I believe that one of the primary stories of what God is doing is the growth of Christianity in non-Western countries. Discussed a lot by Kevin Phillips. According to Todd Johnson, by 2025, the non-Western Christians will represent 69% of global Christendom and 99% of growth. What business in the world after seeing that 99% of its future growth was in a particular market wouldn’t invest most of its resources there? So I want us to spend a few minutes to have a discussion to help with this reframing. At many schools in Christian higher education, the focus is on how can we keep from shrinking by 10%. I think we are spending too much of our effort on that, and not enough on the opportunity presented on the next slide.
  • #7 121 Members of CCCU
  • #12 Sending more teachers is a critical part, but how do we decrease the cost by a factor of 10?
  • #13 The Bible App might be “the top global Christian platform” in the same way that WeChat is its own platform. What if we offered a year of accredited Bible school to all of Indonesia for $50. Promote on TV, radio
  • #16 Unbundling teacher/faculty: reduce cost with less skilled mentors, how small groups are led Vertically integrated: Move from a vertically integrated university to a modular networked university Does the university have to be all things to all people? Most instructors can never compete for teaching with the podcasts I listen to In some cases this will be better and in other cases it will be much worse But it is what the trend is toward
  • #17 About 1/3 of the universe is dark matter/energy Hernando de Soto estimates that $9.3 trillion is in dead capital https://hbr.org/product/aadhaar-india-s-unique-identification-system/712412-PDF-ENG India had no nationally accepted way to prove identity and hence 42% of the population at the base of the pyramid had to resort to bribery to access entitlements, while a web of fake or multiple identities facilitated criminal diversion of government subsidies. http://www.strategy-business.com/article/Social-Entrepreneurship-by-the-Billions?gko=6124e
  • #22 Note: projections are author’s own estimate to make a point on growth potential. We can influence whether traditional CHE grows by 5% or shrinks by 5% as well as whether unbundled grows by 100% or 1,000%. I would argue that investing in the growth of the unbundled ecosystem is the better investment, but we should focus on both Because 1) of the current impact of traditional CHE and 2) unbundled CHE’s growth potential still needs to be proven.
  • #27 The 80/20 rule states that 80% of the profits come from 20% of the products. Shown in the blue line, which has a very steep drop For example That is now changing with the Internet as shown in the black line where now 60% of profits come from 40% of the products Huge implications on increasing content diversity and that has huge implications for missions
  • #31 Other examples: Organic vs. Factory Farming, Physical Retail vs. Amazon, Venture Capital vs. Bootstrapping, mobile vs skype international calls World’s Best: machine-assisted humans, primarily human expertise with technology in background Long Tail: human-assisted machines Moneyball, analytics, big-data driven, tech as core competency
  • #34 Best Practices for Christian Courseware Multiplatform Mobile Apps, Web, MOOC platforms, LMS, Etc. Unbundled Content Anyone can reuse components: Videos (YouTube), Lessons, Courses, Content Items Sharing Creative Commons License, Common Cartridge Course Exports Support Multiple Learning Formats Mobile only, Online only, blended, offline only Complete Solution for Courses Tests/Quizzes and/or Grading Standard Content Alignment with Common Subjects & Degrees Interdenominational Content
  • #35 This is a brainstorming discussion, so there are no right or wrong answers. The idea is just to come up with ideas. What I want you to do is to spend about 5 minutes at your table discussing this question.
  • #40 Who here is familiar with the adoption cycle graph? Innovators are people who bought a PalmPilot, early adopters bought a Trio or Windows Phone. The idea of crossing the chasm is that the companies that serve the geeks, often are not the companies that dominate the market for the average people (iPhone and Android). Most people like to think of higher education as a single market, but its actually multiple markets.
  • #43 Answers don’t need to be invented. They need to be found, funded and scaled.
  • #46 Note: projections are author’s own estimate to make a point on growth potential. We can influence whether traditional CHE grows by 5% or shrinks by 5% as well as whether unbundled grows by 100% or 1,000%. I would argue that investing in the growth of the unbundled ecosystem is the better investment, but we should focus on both Because 1) of the current impact of traditional CHE and 2) unbundled CHE’s growth potential still needs to be proven.
  • #52 Unbundling teacher/faculty: reduce cost with less skilled mentors, how small groups are led Vertically integrated: Move from a vertically integrated university to a modular networked university Does the university have to be all things to all people? Most instructors can never compete for teaching with the podcasts I listen to In some cases this will be better and in other cases it will be much worse But it is what the trend is toward
  • #60 Unbundling teacher/faculty: reduce cost with less skilled mentors, how small groups are led Vertically integrated: Move from a vertically integrated university to a modular networked university Does the university have to be all things to all people? Most instructors can never compete for teaching with the podcasts I listen to In some cases this will be better and in other cases it will be much worse But it is what the trend is toward