How evidence based decision making can help deliver infrastructure in the public interest - Guido BICHISAO, EIB
1. A joint endeavor by the EIB and LTIC, WB, IFC, IaDB, ADB, EBRD,AfDB,
OECD and LTIIA. Supported by AIIB and GIH.
Guido Bichisao, Director, Institutional Strategy Department, EIB.
26 March, 2018
Infrastructure Data Initiative
2. Infrastructure and the 2030 Agenda: delivering sustainable
trillions
79
94
15
0
20
40
60
80
100
Investment need Current trend Gap
$USTrillion
Source: GI Hub
Global Infrastructure Investment 2016 – 2040
(public and private)
Need for quantity and quality: infrastructure
investments are part of a complex universe of SDGs
3. From funding to investing together: enhanced (MDB)
collaboration
Bari, Italy 2017
Principles for Effective IFI Coordination
Commitment to reduce fragmentation
“IFI system as a whole must make
the best possible use of capital and
donor contributions, within their
mandates, to collectively achieve
long-term development impact.”
MDB’S +++
Creating a brain-trust for
infrastructure development
• Key OECD role in shaping
proposal and serving as
secretariat of Steering
Board
• Collaboration with
universities including
Bocconi, Oxford, Louvain,
Imperial, LSE….
4. Mobilizing the trillions: investors want to do more, but
we know too little….
Growing interest in emerging markets
certain types of infrastructure projects in emerging markets
may offer long-term cash flows with attractive yields
Data and knowledge gaps
Desired infrastructure fund improvements
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Insurers
DCPension
Plans
DBPension
Plans
SWFs
Endowments
Other
Better defined investment objectives
Longer duration
Greater sector diversification
Greater geographic diversification
Lower fees and costs
5. Introducing GEMs: springboard for the data initiative and
infrastructure asset class
GEMs in Numbers
More than 8,000 sovereign, public and
private counterparts on record in 2016.
1,690 observed counterpart defaults.
Recovery rates extracted from 1,928
resolved contracts.
The Global Emerging Markets (GEMs) Risk Database is a comprehensive database of credit risk
information combining almost 30 years of investment experience with sovereign, public and private
counterparts across different loan types.
The data is collected anonymously between peer MDBs and DFIs to derive statistically significant Default
Rates and Recovery Rates.
History
Established as a joint effort between the
European Investment Bank (EIB) and the
International Finance Corporation (IFC) of
the World Bank Group in 2009.
Membership has been steadily increasing
and today the GEMs Consortium has 19
members.
6. Chair-Persons
Alain Godard (EIB) and Lakshmi Shyam-Sunder (WB)
Steering Committee
A. Godard (EIB) , Lakshmi Shyam-Sunder (WB), B. Nelson (EBRD), T. Turner (AfDB)
Assembly of Members
GEMs governance: history of multi-stakeholder management
7. Observations Total
Number of Active Counterparts 8,292
Number of Defaults 1,690
Contracts for Recovery Rates 1,928
Database Composition
Category
Number of
Counterparts
Number of
Defaults
Private 7,195 1,393
Public 803 155
Sovereign 294 142
Overall 8,292 1,690
Number of counterparts & defaults by category
Breakdown of counterparts
by category
GEMs data breakdown: 30 years, 8000+ counterparts
Private
83%
Public
9%
Sovereign
8%
29 year historical period from 1988 to 2015
1,690 default events from a total number of 8,292
counterparts have been recorded
1,928 resolved contracts for recovery rate
computation
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Number of resolved contracts Number of default events Number of Counterparts
8. GEMs geographic breakdown: global coverage of emerging
markets
Region
Number of
Counterparts
Number of Defaults
Central Africa 583 266
Central Asia 1,033 125
Central Europe 643 36
Latin America 856 160
Middle East-North Africa 497 124
Northern Central America-
Caribbean
698 123
Pacific 70 31
Southern Africa 768 324
Southern Asia 1,014 214
Southern Europe 1,700 215
Western Europe 197 26
Other 233 46
Overall 8,292 1,690
Southern Europe
21%
Central Asia
13%
Southern Asia
12%
Latin America
10%
Southern Africa
9%
Northern Central
America-
Caribbean
8%
Central Europe
8%
Central Africa
7%
Middle East-North
Africa
6%
Other
3%
Western Europe
2%
Pacific
1%
9. GEMs sectoral breakdown: financials, utilities, materials++
Sector Number of Counterparts Number of Defaults
Administration 117 11
Agriculture 465 152
Consumer Discretionary 672 235
Consumer Staples 505 125
Energy 261 44
Financials 2,635 336
Health Care 148 36
Industrials 573 114
Information Technology 55 16
Materials 695 224
Real Estate 202 49
Sovereign 288 142
Telecommunication Services 218 29
Utilities 856 120
Others 602 57
Overall 8,292 1,690
Financials
32%
Utilities
10%
Materials
8%
Consumer
Discretionary
8%
Others
7%
Consumer
Staples
6%
Consumer
Staples
6%
Agriculture
6%
Sovereign
4%
Energy
3%
Telecom
Services
3%
Real
Estate
2%
Health
Care
2%
Adm.
1%
IT
1%
10. GEMs – PD rating scale: a harmonized approach
In order to combine data from different members, individual institutions map their internal ratings to a common
rating scale following the 2013 Methodology Review
This ensures that all members have the same understanding of ratings
Default Rates
GEMs Rating Scale
11. Beyond a database: platform for deeper collaboration on infrastructure
• Best Banking Practices
• Risk modelling
• Prudential rules
• New data for operations in Emerging
Markets
• Help catalyse investment in Emerging
Markets
• Share experience and expertise in Emerging
Markets
• Benchmarking
• Relationship with Rating Agencies
Collaboration
Exchange
Awareness
12. Looping back to sustainable trillions: standard-setting
and quality assurance as a global public good
One-stop shop for asset-level infrastructure data measuring:
• Financial returns
• Economic impact
• Environmental, social and
governance impact
G7 Ise-Shima Principles for Promoting
Quality Infrastructure Investments
13. What next: using a phased approach to bridge the
knowledge gap
Identification
of relevant
data ($, ESG,
economic…)
Analysis of
data gap to
see where to
collect more
Filling missing
pieces and
ensuring
confidentiality
Centralized
repository
with tech
platform
Performance
indicators to
inform
investments
2018
Public and Private Investors benefit from:
• Reduced information asymmetries
• Standardization - distinct asset class
• Indicators for quality and sustainability
• More mobilization opportunities