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Scherie Nicol - OECD
- 1. EMERGING LESSONS FROM OECD IFI REVIEWS Scherie Nicol Public Management and Budgeting Division 10 September 2020
- 2. CONTENTS 2 1.Background 2. Emerging lessons from recent IFI reviews 3.Impact of recent IFI reviews
- 3. BACKGROUND 3
- 5. Impetus for Reviews 5 • Legislative requirement (Scotland, UK) • Wider institutional review (Lithuania) • Good practice (Slovak)
- 6. Stakeholders consulted • IFI, Government, Parliament (research service, relevant committees & politicians), Supreme Audit Institution, Statistics Office, Central Bank, independent economists, media... Review methodology Context Resources and independence Methodology and outputs Impact 6 Team • OECD Secretariat • Two international peers • Local expert • Technical reviewer Structure + Special chapter (if requested) Basis
- 7. EMERGING LESSONS FROM RECENT IFI REVIEWS 7
- 8. – Outputs widely viewed as credible – Leaders have quickly become voices of authority – Analysis already central to budget debate – Brought about improvements to fiscal transparency 8 Emerging lessons • Political contexts are becoming more challenging all the time • IFIs have established themselves quickly and credibly
- 9. • Leadership: – “first wave” of leadership has been well-regarded and crucial in establishing non- partisan culture in institutions – Generally supported by highly motivated staff – Some concerns over first big change in leadership, and whether institutions are sufficiently “strong” to withstand undue influence at this infliction point – Small countries often worried about limited pool of future leadership candidates and staff 9 Emerging lessons
- 10. • Resources – Budget arrangements generally not as strong as for other independent institutions, e.g., SAI 10 Common themes • Mandate - Given early successes, there are often demands to expand IFI mandates, e.g., costing - But resources are tight
- 11. • Communications and transparency – Generally exceptional transparency – IFIs can be reluctant to publish alternative forecasts – Forecast evaluation not yet systematic – Not always systematic media monitoring – Often scope to further engage with parliament 11 Emerging lessons
- 12. • Budget calendar - Often insufficient time for IFI analysis - Dates not always observed and “exceptional circumstances” giving rise to additional challenges • Access to information – Still a big issue, not across the board, but usually relating to a particular part of government – Legal provisions and MoU arrangements helpful, but not always sufficient 12 Emerging lessons
- 13. IMPACT OF RECENT IFI REVIEWS 13
- 14. • Will be detailed by forthcoming speakers, but worth noting: – Sometimes see changes during the Review process – Requires effort and political will from a range of stakeholders, not just the IFI – May require changes to legislation – Timing of review can be critical • Change of leadership • Elections 14 Impact
- 15. • Independent assessment helps shed light on good practices as well as those elements that not functioning so well • Help ensure strong and sustainable IFIs which have the independence, information and resources they need to operate sustainably • In turn, this supports fiscal transparency, reduced forecast bias, and politically-neutral economic and fiscal analysis 15 Why are these Reviews important?
- 16. THANK YOU FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: SCHERIE.NICOL@oecd.org
Editor's Notes
- Special chapters
- Political context – e.g., UK had Brexit, then election, then COVID Political instability
- To pre-empt a recommendation Changes to leg always a tough call – benefits to be gained higher than risks of re-opening in particular political context