Global energy demand is expected to increase over the next 20 years as the world population grows. Fossil fuels such as oil, gas, and coal will continue to make up the majority of global energy consumption, around 80% by 2035. Many countries and companies are dependent on fossil fuel imports to meet domestic energy needs. Turkey in particular relies heavily on imports to meet over 80% of its oil demand and nearly 100% of its natural gas demand. To improve energy security, Turkey and other countries will need to encourage domestic production and exploration activities as well as securing reserves internationally through state-owned and private companies.

1. Global Perspective for
Oil and Gas in Energy
Policies
EIF 2015
4-6 November 2015
Dr. Zeynep Elif Yıldızel
VP, JADE

2. • What is energy?
• What is electricity
• Can electricity be stored?
• Is electricity material or a product?
• How can electricity be produced?
Raw
Material
Production
Facility ENERGY
ENERGY ELECTRICITY

3. Energy Politics should be designed to balance
the limited resources vs growing populations
energy demand
Limited
Resources Growing
Population

4. Key Global Trends to 2035
Source: BP Statistical Review, 2015
•By 2035 world's population is expected to be 8.7
billion where extra 1.6 billion people will need
energy
•Primary energy consumption will increase 1.4%/
year
•Coal will be slowest growing fuel from 2013-2035 by
0.8%/year. This is due to environmental regulations
and low gas prices in key markets
•Renewables (6.3%/y), nuclear (1.8%/y) and
hydroelectric (1.7%/y) grows faster than total energy
•Fossil fuels will still be sharing 81% in 2035. (86%
in 2013)

5. Oil And Gas Production Needs to be Developed
• Global oil production (oil,unconventional,liquids and others) is expected to reach to ~110 million bopd in
2035 (2014: 92 million bbl/d oil)
• Industry needs to continue to develop new frontiers
• Most of the crude oil production expected from new fields; “yet to be developed or found”
• The industry needs 1000 billion $ of investment for this supply to be in the market
110
Global Investment in Fossil Fuel Supply
WEIO2014

6. Primary Energy Consumption of World
• Fossil Fuels are the major inputs for the energy production
• Worlds energy consumption is the highest at Asia Pacific due to
population density
• North America and Europe are the second biggest regions in terms of
energy consumption
• Middle East and South and Central America consumes only 5% of the
worlds energy
• Africa can only consume 3% of the worlds energy
• Gas is the dominant primary energy resource for Europe and Middle
East, Oil is the dominant primary energy resource for America and coal
is the dominant energy resource for Asia Pacific; where all of them are
fossil fuels
• So energy raw materials flow direction is Asia Pacific, North America
and Europe
Consumption by Region and Fuel Type (%)
Source: BP Statistical Review, 2015
Consumption by Fuel Type
Mtoe
3882
316
879
574
3066
4211

7. Primary Energy Consumption
• China is the largest energy consumer country on world, which is due to the
population; china spends 1.9 ton of the fossil fuels/ capita on worlds total
• US comes after China; in US a capita spends the 6.1 tons of the fossil fuels of
worlds total
• Although the advanced economies consumes approximately 2% each of the
total worlds primary energy; one person in each country consumes
approximately 2 tons of the worlds total fossil fuels except Germany
consumes 3 tons per capita
• Russia consumes 5% of the worlds total energy and her consumption of the
fossil fuels per person 4.1 ton of the worlds total
• Turkey also retain a small amount of worlds total energy consumption with 1% ,
however the consumption of the worlds total fossil fuels per person is 1.5 ton
BP,2015
BP,2015

8. • The proven reserves of the world is 1.700 billion bbls of oil and 187 Tcm of gas by end of 2014
• The 47.% of oil reserves and 42.7% of gas reserves are located in Middle East
• The 31% of the gas reserves are located in Europe and Eurosia where this number is contributed mainly
by Russian reserves
• The 10% of this total oil and gas reserves belong to the Majors (BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, Total,
ConocoPhilips and Eni)
• The majority of this reserves belong to NOC with 71%
• Middle and small companies holds a total of the 19% of these reserves
Reserves Retained in NOCs
2P reserves BP,2015
OIL
BP,2015
GAS

9. Major Countries and Companies as Resources
• BP is listed in the top 10 reserves companies in both oil
and gas, although Britain is not listed in the top countries
of either oil or gas reserve holder
• Shell is also listed in the top 10 companies both oil and
gas reserves, however Netherlands is not listed in the top
10 country reserve holders

10. Top 10 Integrated Oil Companies
• Largest oil companies are the integrated oil companies
• Integrated oil companies hold the majority of the reserves that
do not belong to NOCs
• 9 out of 10 are the integrated oil companies
Proved Oil Reserves
Proved Gas Reserves

11. Fossil Fuels in the Worlds and Turkeys Energy Demand
BP,2015million toe
BP,2015million toe
• Today fossil fuels meets the 86% of the
energy demand of the World and 91%
energy demand of Turkey
• In the next 20 years, still the fossil fuels
will meet the 80% of the energy demand
of World
• So the struggle for fossil fuels will be the
major concern of the nations in the
coming decades
Türkiye ~ 724.000 varil/gün (2014) (BP, 2015)
• Energy import (2014): 55 billionr $
• Oil: 27 billion $
• NG: 23 billion $
• Coal4 billion $
• Turkey is consuming %0.8 of World total energy consumption.
• External dependence on oil: % 87
• External dependence on NG: % 97
• Russia dependence on NGG % 57
US~ 19.035.000 varil / gün (2014) (BP, 2015)
• US is consuming %18 Worlds total energy consumption
• Oil consumption I s %36 in total primary energy consumption.
• US is consuming %20 Worlds oil consumption
World~ 92.086.000 varil / gün (2014) (BP, 2015)

12. Supply Mix of Turkey in Oil and Natural Gas
• Turkeys own production is only 13% for oil and approximately
3% for natural gas.
• Turkey is dependent 63% to Middle east countries ion oil and
57% to Russia on natural gas
• Turkey has to secure and own the reserves of oil and gas
internationally and need to force national and private sector to
secure the resources outside the country in E&P business
• Turkey has to put forward some incentives for the National and
private sector who are able to operate internationally in
Upstream, Midstream and Downstream
• Turkey has to be a “gas hub” in order to secure the natural gas
consumption and also secure the gas supply to Europe
• Turkey has to bring live the natural resources and energy stock
exchange market
2014 2014

13. Supply Mix in Eelectricity Generation
• The majority of electricity is produced from natural gas in Turkey
• The second important item for electricity generation is hydroelectricity generator
• Btu this is not the only issue; we need oil and gas for to secure
– Transportation
– Military usage
– Refined chemical products
– Domestic heating
– Cosmetics
– Medical usage

14. Main Aspects of Energy Business Chain
UPSTREAM MIDSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
POWER
GENERATION
 Exploration
 Production
 Pipeline
 Trucking
 Shipping
 LNG
terminals
 Refining
 LNG
 Gas Hub
 Retail sales
 Industry
 Domestic
We need to secure
strategic reserves
outside country by
our national and
private companies
We need to have more
LNG terminals and
underground gas
storage facilities for
our supply security
We need to be gas
hub as our country
is at the cross roads
of supply and
demand
We have enough
power generation
today but we have
to secure supply
for the future needs

15. Conclusions
• Fossil fuels meets the 86% of the energy demand of world and will be not under 80%
for the next decades
• For about more than a 100 years time, energy projects, specially the exploration and
production, will be the most profitable business on the World
• Within the next 20 years, «integrated energy companies», which are exploring,
producing , transporting and refining their own energy raw material and converting them
to energy in the end, will survive in the energy domain. Those companies will be
structuring the next decade on the World.
• Today in Global Fortune 500 list, 8 out of first 20 are oil companies. Also there are 40
IOC’s within the first 500 largest companies of the World.
• Although we do not have enough oil and gas resources in-house, we should
secure the demand of our Country from abroad
• So we have to encourage our private and national oil companies to secure reserves via
exploration and production internationally
• We have to bring incentives to the companies not only exploring domestically but also
doing exploration internationally
• We have to encourage our companies for to be a integrated oil companies so that
fluctuation in oil prices do not effect

16. Web: www.jade.org.tr
Web: zeynepelifyildizel.com
E-mail: zeynep.yildizel@jade.org.tr