The document discusses progress made over 25 years in disaster risk reduction, but less progress in managing risks. It notes that while disasters affect millions annually, other issues like disease affect even more. Climate change will further increase risks like rising sea levels. Transitioning from managing disasters to managing risks can help align agendas around disaster risk reduction, climate change, and sustainable development. Understanding risks fully requires assessing how factors like urbanization, inequality, and overconsumption drive underlying risk.

1. Making development sustainable: the future of
disaster risk management

2. 25 years of international commitment to disaster
risk reduction

3. From managing disasters ………
Disaster
management
cycle
1975
2011

4. Less progress in managing risks
Assessing
disaster
risk
impacts
of
major
development
projects
Managing
risk
in
urban
environments
Strong
policy,
technical
and
insCtuConal
capaciCes
and
mechanisms
Disaster
preparedness
and
conCngency
plans,
training
drills

5. Revealing the real magnitude of risk
Disasters:
42,000,000
(average
1990-­‐2012)
Tuberculosis:
43,000,000
(2012)
Malaria:
55,000,000
(2012)
Traffic
accidents:
78,000,000
(2012)
Life
year
lost:

6. A risky world
Expected
future
disaster
losses
annualized
over
the
long
term

7. Fiscal resilience challenged
PotenCal
financing
gaps
for
a
1
in
100
year
loss
5%
probability
in
5
years
of
exceeding
a
loss
Flood Hazard - forthcoming
~

8. An opportunity cost for development
The
risk
to
social
progress,
stability
and
economic
development

9. SIDS: an existential threat
Average
annual
loss
as
a
proporCon
of
social
expenditure,
capital
investment
and
capital
stock:
top
15
countries

10. Climate change magnifies risk
The
increase
in
annual
average
loss
due
to
wind
damage
in
the
Caribbean
by
2050
as
a
result
of
climate
change
Total
increase
of
AAL
with
climate
change
to
2050
=
US$
1.4
billion

11. Extensive risk: eroding resilience
Most
disaster
impacts
in
infrastructure
are
associated
with
extensive
risk

12. Underlying risk drivers: Mispricing risk
EsCmated
impact
of
sea
level
rise
in
Miami
Beach
by
2060

13. Underlying risk drivers: Urbanizing risk
Expected
regional
increase
in
the
proporCon
of
urban
populaCon
by
2050

14. Underlying risk drivers: Growing inequalities
Annual
local
government
spending
per
person
for
selected
countries

15. Underlying risk drivers:
Overconsumption overwhelming bio-capacity
About
1.5
planets
are
now
required
to
sustain
current
levels
of
consumpCon

16. Developing sustainably is possible
The
non-­‐linear
relaConship
between
energy
consumpCon
and
human
development

17. From managing disasters to managing risks
Managing
risks
aligns
the
disaster
risk
reducCon,
climate
change
acCon
and
sustainable
development
agendas

18. Understanding Risk: The Platforms

19. Understanding Risk: The Platforms

20. Seeing is believing

21. Thank
you
#gar15