Global Assessment Report

1. Chapter -5 :Global Assessment Report 2009-2015
Presented By:
Mahendra Bhattarai
Ishor Timilsina
Manisha Paneru
Msc PHDE
School Of Engineering
Pokhara University

2. Table Of Content
S.N Title Present By
1 GAR 9,GAR 11 Er. Ishor Timilsina
2 GAR 13 Er. Mahendra Bhattarai
3 GAR 15, Country Profile Er. Manisha Paneru
4 GAR Atlas and Mobile
App
Er. Mahendra Bhattarai
App

4. INTRODUCTION
• first biennial global assessment of disaster risk reduction prepared in
context of the implementation of the International Strategy for Disaster
Reduction (ISDR).
• The Report identifies disaster risk, analyses its causes and effects,
shows that these causes can be addressed and recommends means to
do so. The central message of the Report is that reducing disaster risk
can provide a vehicle to reduce poverty, safeguard development and
adapt to climate change, with beneficial effects on broader global stabilityadapt to climate change, with beneficial effects on broader global stability
and sustainability.
• . The Report was coordinated by the United Nations International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) Secretariat, in collaboration
with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World
Bank, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Educational,
Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the ProVention
Consortium, the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute and a wide range of
other ISDR partners.

5. Main Body
• The main body of the Report is structured around seven chapters and provides technical information for
disaster risk reduction policy makers, practitioners and researchers:
• Chapter 1: The global challenge: disaster risk, poverty and climate change provides an overview of the
key policy issues addressed in the Report.
• Chapter 2: Global disaster risk: patterns, trends and drivers presents the findings of the global risk
analysis.
• Chapter 3: Deconstructing disaster: risk patterns and poverty trends at the local level presents an
analysis of national level disaster and poverty data.
• Chapter 4: The heart of the matter: the underlying risk drivers analyses the role of vulnerable rural
livelihoods, poor urban governance, declining ecosystems and global climate change in configuring
disaster risk.
• Chapter 5: Review of progress in the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action presents
an overview and analysis of the progress reports prepared by countries, a desk review of the integration of
disaster risk reduction into poverty reduction strategies and climate change adaptation policy, and a review
of progress in thematic areas such as early warning.
• Chapter 6: Addressing the underlying risk drivers identifies and examines best practice for addressing
the disaster risk–poverty nexus in areas such as good urban and local governance, strengthening rural
livelihoods, ecosystem management, innovative financial mechanisms and local- and community-level
disaster risk reduction.
• Chapter 7: Investing today for a safer tomorrow presents the conclusions and recommendations of the
Report

6. Key findings and recommendations
• Global disaster risk is highly concentrated in poorer countries with
weaker governance. Particularly in low and low-middle income
countries with rapid economic growth, the exposure of people and
assets to natural hazards is growing at a faster rate than risk-reducing
capacities are being strengthened, leading to increasing disaster risk.
• Countries with small and vulnerable economies, such as many small-
island developing states (SIDS) and land-locked developing countriesisland developing states (SIDS) and land-locked developing countries
(LLDCs), have the highest economic vulnerability to natural hazards.
Many also have extreme trade limitations.
• Most disaster mortality and asset destruction is intensively
concentrated in very small areas exposed to infrequent but extreme
hazards. However, low-intensity damage to housing, local
infrastructure, crops and livestock, which interrupts and erodes
livelihoods, is extensively spread within many countries and occurs
very frequently. Such damage represents a significant and largely
unaccounted for facet of disaster impacts.

7. GAR 2011

8. RevealingRisk,RedefiningDevelopment
• This second edition of the United Nations Global Assessment
Report on Disaster Risk Reduction provides a current resource
for understanding and analysing global disaster risk. Drawing
on a large volume of new and enhanced data
• national public investment planning, conditional cash transfers
and temporary employment programmes,were firstly introduced
in this Report.Such strategies reduce disaster risk and strivein this Report.Such strategies reduce disaster risk and strive
towards the objectives of the HFA, and are also important for
adapting to climate change and achieving the Millennium
Development Goals.
• The report was coordinated by the (UNISDR), inter alia, the
European Commission, and the Governments of Japan,
Norway, Switzerland and the United States of America. Many
other countries and organizations provided human and
technical resources supporting research, workshops and
studies necessary for the development of the report.
• UNISDR= United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

9. Summary of main findings
• RISK TRENDS: ECONOMIC LOSSES UP, MORTALITY
DOWN
• The risk of being killed by a cyclone or flood is lower today than
it was 20 years ago, except for those who live in a country with
low GDP and weak governance.
• Economic loss risk continues to increase across all regions –• Economic loss risk continues to increase across all regions –
and seriously threatens the economies of low-income
countries.
• DROUGHT: THE HIDDEN RISK
• Drought impacts most visibly on agricultural production, with
significant losses spilling over into other economic sectors.
• Globally, drought is still a hidden risk and locally its social and
economic impacts are disproportionately concentrated on poor
rural households.

10. Contd
• Poorer communities suffer a disproportionate share of disaster loss. Poor
households are usually less resilient to loss and are rarely covered by insurance
or social protection. Disaster impacts lead to income and consumption shortfalls
and negatively affect welfare and human development, often over the long term.
• Weather-related disaster risk is expanding rapidly both in terms of the territories
affected, the losses reported and the frequency of events. This expansive
tendency cannot be explained by improved disaster reporting alone.
• In countries with weaker risk-reducing capacities, underlying risk drivers such as
poor urban governance, vulnerable rural livelihoods and ecosystem declinepoor urban governance, vulnerable rural livelihoods and ecosystem decline
underpin this rapid expansion of weather-related disaster risk.
• Climate change is already changing the geographic distribution, frequency and
intensity of weather-related hazards and threatens to undermine the resilience of
poorer countries and their citizens to absorb loss and recover from disaster
impacts. This combination of increasing hazard and decreasing resilience makes
climate change a global driver of disaster risk. Climate change will magnify the
uneven distribution of risk skewing disaster impacts even further towards poor
communities in developing countries.

11. Summary of main findings
• GLOBAL EFFORTS: THE HFA EFFECT
• The number and quality of Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)
progress reviews is evidence of a growing concern for reducing
disaster risk.
• REVEALING RISK: VISIBLE TRADE-OFFS FOR INFORMED
CHOICES
• The sheer scale of recurrent and probable maximum losses should be• The sheer scale of recurrent and probable maximum losses should be
enough to shock governments into action.
• Governments are liable for a significant part of total expected losses –
and they rarely have the contingency financing to match this liability.
• REDEFINING DEVELOPMENT: SCALING UP DISASTER RISK
MANAGEMENT
• REFORMING RISK GOVERNANCE
• To ensure the coherence of policy and planning, overall responsibility
for disaster risk management needs to be located in a central ministry
with a high level of political authority.

12. SUCCESSFUL DRM KEY

13. GAR 2013
Fromsharedrisktosharedvalue,thebusinesscasefordisasterriskreduction:
• (GAR 2013) is a resource for
understanding and analysing
global disaster risk today and
in the future. It explores why
increasing disaster risks
represent a growing problem
for the economic andfor the economic and
business community at
different scales and
examines how paradoxically
business investments that
aimed to strengthen
competitiveness and
productivity may have
inadvertently contributed to
increasing risk.

14. KEY POINT
• The GAR 2013 explores how businesses, by investing in
disaster risk manaement
• It highlights the interdependence of the public and private
sectors and why business competitiveness, sustainability
and resilience will also depend on governments’ ability toand resilience will also depend on governments’ ability to
manage disaster risk through effective policies.
• The previous two editions of the GAR were predominantly
written for an audience of policy- and decision-makers in
government departments.
• GAR13 aims at business leaders and private investors,
on the one hand, and at local and national regulators, on
the other hand.

15. Main findings
• RISKY BUSINESS
• Business loses its lifelines when disasters damage public infrastructure Even when
businesses do not experience direct losses, they depend on publicly managed or
regulated roads and transportation lines, energy and water networks as well as on a
workforce that in turn depends on housing, education and health facilities.

16. LOSS IN ECONOMY

17. • Disasters undermine longer-term competitiveness and sustainability
• Some businesses never recover from disaster. The wider impacts can
linger for years, undermining longer-term competitiveness and
sustainability. Market share may be lost as clients transfer their
business to competitors; skilled workers move or find other jobs;
relationships with suppliers and retailers are severed; and business
image and reputation may be permanently damaged. For example,
before the 1995 earthquake, the port of Kobe was the world’s sixthbefore the 1995 earthquake, the port of Kobe was the world’s sixth
busiest. Despite a massive investment in reconstruction and efforts
to improve competitiveness by 2010 it had fallen to 47th place.When
business leaves, it may never return.
• THE FULL SCALE OF DISASTER LOSSES
• New disaster data provides a more complete picture of losses
• Direct disaster losses are at least 50 percent higher than
internationally reported figure
• Many low and middle-income countries lack capacities to reduce
their vulnerabilities

18. INTENSIVE RISKSCAPES
• Most disasters that could
occur have not happened
yetyet
• Smaller countries have
the highest proportion of
their capital stock at risk

19. INVISIBLE RISKS
• Small disasters undermine local development as well as
national competitiveness
• Extensive risk is produced by urban and economic
development
• Costs of extensive disasters often absorbed by less• Costs of extensive disasters often absorbed by less
resilient households and business
• Extensive risks are rarely recorded or accounted for in
national risk assessments

20. THE RESILIENCE CHALLENGE
• Economic recovery and business recovery are interrelated
• Resilience refers to the capacity to absorb losses and recover.
How quickly an economy recovers and how quickly a business
recovers are clearly interrelated. But businesses are more
likely to recover faster in a country where governments have
the capacity to invest in reconstruction or where they have riskthe capacity to invest in reconstruction or where they have risk
financing measures in place that cover most contingencies.
• Countries least able to afford lost investment are losing
the most
• When disaster losses represent a high proportion of capital
formation, countries will have less capacity to replace lost
capital

21. • Many countries have a risk-financing gap

22. • ANTICIPATING RISK
• Progress still limited in adopting prospective disaster risk
management
• Land-use planning has not encouraged disaster risk
management
• Significant momentum in the development of disaster risk
financing schemes

24. 24

25. Preface
• The GAR is the comphrensive review and analysis of
disaster risk and risk management.
• It is published every two year.
• The preparation of GAR is coordinated and supervised by
UNISDR.
25
• The GAR aims to focus international attention on the
issue of disaster risk and encourage political and
economic support for disaster risk reduction.

26. Logos of the organization whohave contributed on GAR 2015 report
26

27. Contd……
• The GAR is produced in collaboration and consultation
with a wide range of stakeholders, with thinkers,
practitioners, experts and innovators to investigate the
state of risk across the globe.
During the period of implementation of Hyogo
27
• During the period of implementation of Hyogo
Framework for action 2005-2015 a total of four GAR
were produced between 2009 to 2015.
• GAR 2015 is the fourth edition of UN GAR on Disaster
Risk Reduction.

28. contd…..
• It is the resource for understanding and analyzing global
disaster risk today and in the future.
• The report explores the large potential losses from
disasters currently face by many countries especially
those which can least afford to invest.
28
• GAR reports aim to promote the integration of disaster
risk management into development by raising the
awareness that managing risk cost less than managing
disaster.

29. Financial support
• Financial resources were generously made available by
the European Commission (Directorate-General for
Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection, and Directorate-
General for Development and Cooperation), the United
29
General for Development and Cooperation), the United
Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and by the
Government of the United States of America.

30. 30

31. The person holding an inverted umbrella is an icon for
positive empowerment, seeing something from new
perspective, a call for creative responsiveness to change.
This image represent acting to overturn a legacy of
apathy.
31
The inverted A in the GAR 2015 logo is a resonance of
this motif.

32. Main Findings
Disaster losses remain substantial
The cost of disaster is equivalent to that of the major
disease and is an economic and social burden
32
Global risk poses a significant opportunity cost

33. Contd…..
Expected future losses threaten economic development
and social progress in lower income countries.
Sustainable development in SIDS
Increasing disaster risk due to climate change In the
carribean basin
33
carribean basin
Uneven impact of climate change on Agricultural
productivity

34. Extensive risk as a poverty factor
34

35. contd…..
Multi dimensional risk
Fiscal resilience challenged
Strengthened disaster managementStrengthened disaster management
35

36. 36

37. Risk information and awareness
37

38. contd….
Early warning system
Disaster preparedness
Build back better
38
Build back better

39. 39

40. contd…..
Global risk inequality
Segregated Urban development
Consumption of natural resources
40
Consumption of natural resources

41. 41

42. 42

43. 43

44. 44

45. 45

46. The Atlas - Unveiling Global Disaster
Risk
• THE GAR RISK ATLAS
• The GAR Risk Atlas contributes to unveiling the hidden risk in
national economies and their urban centres. Building on a
multi-year effort by a consortium of leading scientific institutions
coordinated by UNISDR, it provides a global vision of where
and how disaster risk can undermine development.and how disaster risk can undermine development.
• It estimates the probability of future disaster losses in the built
environment for five major hazards (earthquakes, tsunamis,
riverine floods, and tropical cyclones - winds and storm surge)
and for every country and territory in the world and represents
the results using robust risk metrics such as Average Annual
Loss (AAL) and Probable Maximum Loss (PML).
• The GAR Risk Atlas (special report of the GAR series) presents
the fully updated results of the global risk assessment in a
visually appealing and innovative manner

47. THE GAR RISK ATLAS
• “Risk is real. Although we cannot readily see risk, we can
measure it by understanding how the probability of
damaging winds, floods, or shaking compounds with the
exposure of settlements and livelihoods and lives. Using
vulnerability functions that link the hazard to the damage,vulnerability functions that link the hazard to the damage,
we can calculate and map risk.”
• Robert Muir-Wood Chief Research Officer, RMS

48. Section 1
Maps that change the world
• Risk is real. Disasters in any given time
and place are a result of multiple causes
and conditions; crystallisations of realised
risk, when what are often implicit
processes of risk accumulation suddenly
become manifest. Although we cannot
readily see risk, we can measure it and
map it. The GAR Atlas facilitates a better
understanding of the global risk landscape.
It is the first of its kind that is non-It is the first of its kind that is non-
proprietary, completely open and with
multi-hazard global coverage.
The GAR Atlas can be considered an Atlas
Major of global disaster risk. The GAR
Atlas offers a framework for filling in what
are still blank spaces on a world map of
risk. Our current understanding of the
global distribution and attributes of disaster
risk are probably analogous to a 16th
century world map. As better data and
advanced modelling techniques come on
stream, risk metrics will gradually become
more accurate and currently unexplored
facets of global risk will become visible.

49. Section 2
The world of disaster risk
• Visualizing risk in a cartographic form is a
way of making explicit the hidden veins of
disaster risk. Only when disaster risk can
be measured and can be made visible can
it be properly managed.
The GAR Atlas gives us a sense of the
overall scale, distribution and patterns of
disaster risk, with a global level of
observation and a national level ofobservation and a national level of
resolution. This Section of the GAR Atlas
illustrates how direct disaster economic
loss in the built environment is distributed
across countries and territories by mapping
the Annual Average Loss (AAL), a
probabilistic risk metric which condenses
the multiple interdependencies and
complexities that configure disaster risk
into a single numerical value.
Risk maps are presented for the world and
for each region for specific hazards:
earthquake, riverine flood, cyclonic wind
and storm surge, and tsunami hazard for
absolute AAL and AAL relative to the value
of the capital stock.

50. Section 3
Disaster risk implications for social and
economic development• All countries are faced with
increasing levels of possible hidden
costs and challenges in order to
meet financial and other obligations,
despite being industrialized,
developing or a small island. The
GAR Atlas integrates risk metricsGAR Atlas integrates risk metrics
obtained with the Global Risk Model
with diverse financial and social
indicators to highlight how disaster
risk may have important implications
on social and economic
development. This section includes
additional metrics that reflects how
the potential losses can mean
severe constraints on development
and how contexts with high social,
economic and environmental fragility
may worsen the potential direct
damages and impacts.

51. Section 4
Applications of the Global Risk Model
• The GRM can provide a global
framework for the development of
more detailed risk models, using a
similar methodology and higher-
resolution data. Using the same
“arithmetic”, risk due other hazards
can be calculated such as the
volcano ash risk in the Asian-Pacificvolcano ash risk in the Asian-Pacific
region or including climate change
scenarios in the cyclonic wind
hazard. Even with the coarse grain
resolution limitation, the GRM has
proved capable of generating
credible event scenarios in the same
order of magnitude as reported
losses in the case of a number of
recent disasters as highlighted in this
section with the Amatrice Earthquake
2016, the Gorkha Earthquake 2015
and Matthew Hurricane 2016.

52. Section 5
Probabilistic hazard and risk assessment
methodology
• The basic premise of probability analysis is
that more things might happen in the future
than actually will happen. Probabilistic
models simulate those future disasters
which, based on scientific evidence, could
possibly occur, reproducing the physics of
the phenomena and recreating the intensity
of a large number of simulated hazardousof a large number of simulated hazardous
events. In doing so, they provide a more
complete picture of the full spectrum of
future potential losses than is possible with
only historical data. The scientific data and
knowledge used is still incomplete, meaning
that all models have a degree of inherent
uncertainty. However, provided that this
uncertainty is recognised, probabilistic
models can provide much better guidance
on the likely order of magnitude of probable
losses compared to projections from
historical data.

53. The Application
G R for Tangible Earth
the GAR Atlas: Unveiling Global Disaster Risk is an augmented reality
publication. It has been designed to be read and explored using an IOS or
Android tablet. Most of the information contained in the GAR Atlas can only be
accessed in this way.
GfT is fun, educational, and empowering.

56. • The Risk Data Viewer
• The risk data platform is a repository to share spatial data
information on global risk from natural hazards. Users can
easily visualize or download data from the latest Global Risk
Model presented in the GAR Atlas.
In fact, the platform highlights the “World of disaster risk”,
presenting for 5 major hazards (earthquake, riverine flood,presenting for 5 major hazards (earthquake, riverine flood,
cyclonic wind and storm surge, and tsunami) with the
probabilistic risk metric of Annual Average losses. The
“Disaster Risk implications” integrates risk metrics obtained
with the Global Risk Model with diverse financial and social
indicators to highlight how disaster risk may have important
implications on social and economic development. Last but not
least, users can visualize the probabilistic representation of the
occurrence of hazardous events at different return periods.
All datasets are available for free for non-commercial purposes.

57. Lets Try
• Go to the Webpage
• https://risk.preventionweb.net/

59. ThankYou
The common question that gets asked in business is, ‘why?’ That’s a good question,
but an equally valid question is, ‘why not?’. – Jeff Bezos