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The future of lifelong learning:
Experience the scenario method



Jocelyn Manderveld - SURFfoundation
SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
Overview

19.30-19.40 Introduction
19.40-20.00 SURF scenario study
20.00-21.00 Experience the scenario method
21.00-21.30 Results of SURF scenario study
21.30 Closure




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
SURF: ICT innovation by and for higher
education and research


                                      Research universities, universities of
                                      applied sciences, and research institutions
                                      work together in SURF in order to:
                                      • improve the quality of research and
                                        education by:
                                      • creating pioneering ICT innovations.



   For more than twenty years,
   collaboration within SURF has led
   to products and services that the
   participating institutions could not
   have achieved on their own.


SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
SURF is a partnership

between all Dutch institutions for higher education & research


                                                    42
                                              Universities of
                                             applied sciences
                     14
                                                                      National Library
                 Universities

                                 Collaboration
                                                                                  Netherlands
                                       =
      Smaller
                                                                                Organisation for
   institutions of
                                                                               Scientific Research
 higher education
                                Success factor!
                                                                                     (NWO)


                                                                      Royal Netherlands
                Commercial                                             Academy of Arts
               R&D institutes                                           and Sciences
                                             Dutch Organisation
                                                                           (KNAW)
                                             for Applied Scientific
                                               Research (TNO),
                                             Telematics Institute




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
Driver of                                 Pioneering     The licensing
     ICT innovation                                network       organisation




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
SURFfoundation



      Initiates innovation in educational,
    research and organisational processes



                                     Encourages knowledge-
                                    sharing and partnerships



                                                   Directs and coordinates the
                                                implementation of funding projects




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
ICT and Education                                                SURF’s view:
                                                                 • ICT environment in higher
                                                                   education should reflect
                                                                   the ICT environment of
                                                                   the student outside the
Initiatives:                                                       institution
• Innovation: LOREnet, repositories,                             • ICT innovation must be
  digital learning materials                                       sustainable, reusable
                                                                   and flexible, with more
• Tenders for implementing “proven
                                                                   emphasis on “proven”
  technology”
                                                                   technology
      − NAP, financed by the institutions
                                                                 • Use ICT innovation to
• SURFspace: education portal by
                                                                   improve academic
  and for professionals in ICT and
                                                                   performance
  education
• Knowledge dissemination: SURF
  Academy, Special Interest Groups

SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
SURF Scenario study




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
SURF scenario study

• Background
     Virtual learning & working environment for students &
     teachers in 2020
• Goal:
     Develop 4 future scenario’s, which support SURFfoundation
     & Dutch institutes for higher education in determining their
     policies on the compilation of the virtual working & learning
     environment of the future.
• Method:
     Scenario Method




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
Scenario method:




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
Scenario method: three phases

1. Analyses of future trends
      − Brainstorm about the future
      − Research of trends
      − Choose future drivers/trends


2. Development & presentation of scenarios


3. Reflection
      − Evaluation of scenario’s
      − Writing report




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
Experience the scenario method
Fase 1: Analyses of future trends

• In SURF study 300 people from Dutch institutes for higher
  education were involved.
• Different target groups:
      −    ICT & Education policy advisors
      −    Dean’s of faculties
      −    CIO’s
      −    Students
      −    Teachers




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
Experience the scenario method

Lifelong learning in 2020


What kind of services do lifelong learners need in 2020?




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
• Impact & predictability




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
Results of SURF study:
Unpredictable, high-impact drivers

• Restricted versus open education
• Financing by student versus financing by institution
• Teaching & assessment combined versus testing
  independent of learning path
• Institutes for higher education provide virtual learning
  environments versus student/teacher has own equipment
  (personal electronic learning environment)




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
Scenario axes
                            Curriculum assembled by institutes




       Airport                                                     Department
                                                                   Store
VLE                                                                             PLE



       Supermarket                                                 Exchange

                           Curriculum assembled by students
  SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
Results of SURF study:
Predictable, high-impact drivers

• Student as “prosumer”
• Formal & indirect quality control
• Open content
• Teacher as freelancer
• Increasing internationalisation of education
• Institutes as a networks




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
4 scenario’s

• Development by people from HE institutes
• Presentation
      − Newspapers
      − Movies




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
4 Scenarios

• Predictable trends
• Back casting
• Society in 2020
• HE in 2020
• Organisational perspective
• Student perspective
• Teacher perspective




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
Airport                           Curriculum by
                                                                   Department store
                                     institutesQualifications for all occupations and
 Micro technology implants
                                                studies are fixed in Europe
 Focus on individual learning processes
                                                Every module is 7,5 ECTS
 Structuring and standardisation
                                                Education is financed by vouchers
 Private en public education providers

                                                Integral platform for working, learning,
 Studying at own level in communities
                                                networking, and communicating

                                                Service of HE-institutes appear as plug-
                                                ins in platform
VLE                                                                                 PLE
                                           Exchange
                          Supermarket
                                           Talent and excellence is defining
 Institute is private and public

                                           EXIT: government, HE & diplomes.
 VLE is a service, providing support for
                                           Guildsystem works
 the needs of students

                                           Living, learning and working are integrated
 Development as commodity
                                           Networking

                                           Basis infrastructure GUIDE:

                             Curriculum by students
Reflection

• What do you like in this scenario?
• What do find disturbing in this scenario?
• What’s the predictability of this scenario?
• Are there trends, new developments missing in this
  scenario?
• What should happen to make this scenario reality?




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
Reflection

• How will students and teachers work & learn in this
  scenario?
• What kind of digital solutions will they use to support their
  working & learning?
• Who will provide those solutions?




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
Questions

• Manderveld@surf.nl


• http://www.surffoundation.nl/scenario2020




Thank you




SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research

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Futures scenarios

  • 1. The future of lifelong learning: Experience the scenario method Jocelyn Manderveld - SURFfoundation
  • 2. SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 3. Overview 19.30-19.40 Introduction 19.40-20.00 SURF scenario study 20.00-21.00 Experience the scenario method 21.00-21.30 Results of SURF scenario study 21.30 Closure SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 4. SURF: ICT innovation by and for higher education and research Research universities, universities of applied sciences, and research institutions work together in SURF in order to: • improve the quality of research and education by: • creating pioneering ICT innovations. For more than twenty years, collaboration within SURF has led to products and services that the participating institutions could not have achieved on their own. SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 5. SURF is a partnership between all Dutch institutions for higher education & research 42 Universities of applied sciences 14 National Library Universities Collaboration Netherlands = Smaller Organisation for institutions of Scientific Research higher education Success factor! (NWO) Royal Netherlands Commercial Academy of Arts R&D institutes and Sciences Dutch Organisation (KNAW) for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), Telematics Institute SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 6. Driver of Pioneering The licensing ICT innovation network organisation SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 7. SURFfoundation Initiates innovation in educational, research and organisational processes Encourages knowledge- sharing and partnerships Directs and coordinates the implementation of funding projects SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 8. ICT and Education SURF’s view: • ICT environment in higher education should reflect the ICT environment of the student outside the Initiatives: institution • Innovation: LOREnet, repositories, • ICT innovation must be digital learning materials sustainable, reusable and flexible, with more • Tenders for implementing “proven emphasis on “proven” technology” technology − NAP, financed by the institutions • Use ICT innovation to • SURFspace: education portal by improve academic and for professionals in ICT and performance education • Knowledge dissemination: SURF Academy, Special Interest Groups SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 9. SURF Scenario study SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 10. SURF scenario study • Background Virtual learning & working environment for students & teachers in 2020 • Goal: Develop 4 future scenario’s, which support SURFfoundation & Dutch institutes for higher education in determining their policies on the compilation of the virtual working & learning environment of the future. • Method: Scenario Method SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 11. Scenario method: SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 12. SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 13. SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 14. SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 15. Scenario method: three phases 1. Analyses of future trends − Brainstorm about the future − Research of trends − Choose future drivers/trends 2. Development & presentation of scenarios 3. Reflection − Evaluation of scenario’s − Writing report SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 16. Experience the scenario method Fase 1: Analyses of future trends • In SURF study 300 people from Dutch institutes for higher education were involved. • Different target groups: − ICT & Education policy advisors − Dean’s of faculties − CIO’s − Students − Teachers SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 17. Experience the scenario method Lifelong learning in 2020 What kind of services do lifelong learners need in 2020? SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 18. • Impact & predictability SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 19. Results of SURF study: Unpredictable, high-impact drivers • Restricted versus open education • Financing by student versus financing by institution • Teaching & assessment combined versus testing independent of learning path • Institutes for higher education provide virtual learning environments versus student/teacher has own equipment (personal electronic learning environment) SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 20. Scenario axes Curriculum assembled by institutes Airport Department Store VLE PLE Supermarket Exchange Curriculum assembled by students SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 21. Results of SURF study: Predictable, high-impact drivers • Student as “prosumer” • Formal & indirect quality control • Open content • Teacher as freelancer • Increasing internationalisation of education • Institutes as a networks SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 22. 4 scenario’s • Development by people from HE institutes • Presentation − Newspapers − Movies SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 23. 4 Scenarios • Predictable trends • Back casting • Society in 2020 • HE in 2020 • Organisational perspective • Student perspective • Teacher perspective SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 24. Airport Curriculum by Department store institutesQualifications for all occupations and Micro technology implants studies are fixed in Europe Focus on individual learning processes Every module is 7,5 ECTS Structuring and standardisation Education is financed by vouchers Private en public education providers Integral platform for working, learning, Studying at own level in communities networking, and communicating Service of HE-institutes appear as plug- ins in platform VLE PLE Exchange Supermarket Talent and excellence is defining Institute is private and public EXIT: government, HE & diplomes. VLE is a service, providing support for Guildsystem works the needs of students Living, learning and working are integrated Development as commodity Networking Basis infrastructure GUIDE: Curriculum by students
  • 25. Reflection • What do you like in this scenario? • What do find disturbing in this scenario? • What’s the predictability of this scenario? • Are there trends, new developments missing in this scenario? • What should happen to make this scenario reality? SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 26. Reflection • How will students and teachers work & learn in this scenario? • What kind of digital solutions will they use to support their working & learning? • Who will provide those solutions? SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research
  • 27. Questions • Manderveld@surf.nl • http://www.surffoundation.nl/scenario2020 Thank you SURF – ICT innovation by and for higher education and research