Lester R. Brown (2012), "Full Planet, Empty Plates: The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity", W. W. Norton & Company, New York

1. FULL PLANET, EMPTY PLATES
Carrelli Lydia,
Cassio Paola,
Yongchang He,
Ottanà Giulia,
Rytsola Valentina,
Serrini Livia
The New Geopolitics of Food Scarcity
By Lester R. Brown

2. CORN CROP TIME
• Wheat and rice :
world’s leading food grains
• Corn:
- Dominates the use of grain
in livestock and poultry feed
- Vulnerable to extreme heat
and drought

3. FROM AN ERA OF FOOD ABUNDANCE
TO AN ERA OF SCARCITY
• 1986 
• Until 2001 
• From 2002
to 2011

annual world carryover
stocks of grain: 74
days of consumption
annual world carryover
stocks of grain: 107
days of consumption
phasing out of the U.S.
cropland program
• Now  world living one year to the next
• Last half of the 20th century 
carryover stocks of grain
+ U.S. farm programs
• Soon  restricting exports to decrease domestic food price

4. EARLIER CIVILIZATIONS UNDERMINED BY FOOD SHORTAGES
• Sumerians:
rising salt levels in the soil
• Mayans:
deforestation and
losses of soil from erosion
Source: http://pixshark.com/sumerian-irrigation.htm
Source: Dunning et al. (1998)

5. SOURCES OF GRAIN DEMAND GROWTH
1. Population growth
Source: http://bixby.berkeley.edu/research/population/
2. Consumers moving up
the food chain

6. 3. Conversion of grain into fuel for cars
SOURCES OF GRAIN DEMAND GROWTH
Decline in stocks of grain
Rising food prices
+ Spread of hunger

7. CHALLENGES ON THE PRODUCTION FRONT
1. Soil erosion

8. CHALLENGES ON THE PRODUCTION FRONT
2. Growing water shortages
• Aquifers being depleted
• Irrigation wells starting to go dry
3. Plateauing of rice and wheat
yields in some agriculturally
advanced countries

9. 4. Earth’s rising temperature
CHALLENGES ON THE PRODUCTION FRONT
1 °C rise in temperature above the optimum 10% decline in grain yields

10. POPULATION GROWTH
• Consequences of the explosive population growth
(forests, fisheries, grasslands, aquifers, soils)
• Forests: overcutting
- growing demand for firewood, lumber, paper
- forests are shrinking
- Mauritania
• U.N. Demographic projections:
- world population 9.3 billion
in 2050
- enough water to grow food
for the 2.3 billion more people?

11. • Good news:
- Western and Eastern Europe
reached population stability
(970 million people)
- East Asia (Taiwan, China, North
and South Korea, Japan) very near
to population stability
- Indian Subcontinent
(India, Pakistan, Bangladesh)
- Sub-Saharan Africa (ex. Ethiopia)
• Bad news:
All of the population growth is in
developing countries:
Both 2.2 billion people in 2050
• Frank Notestein: “Three-stage demographic model”

12. SOLUTIONS:
• Smaller families
• Access to reproductive health care and family planning
services for every woman
• Two children per couple
• Stabilized world population
• Every country moving into “stage-three”

13. MOVING UP THE FOOD CHAIN
• Food habits depend on geographic location protein change
USA, Brazil, Argentina:
land-rich with grassland
Beef and mutton
Germany and China:
densely populated with lack of space
Pork
• During the years, meat consumption is changed:
- 1950: beef and pork dominated
- 1997: poultry overtook beef

14. Nowadays : pork is the world’s leading meat  China consumer #1

15. • During the years  greatest restructuring in seafood consumption
Japan:
too much land to produce rice
and it has to turn to seafood to
satisfy the demand of protein
China:
First one that turned to fish
farming  2010: 37 million tons
Source:http://community.theaquaponicsource.com/profiles/blogs/fishes-for-aquaponics-in-china

16. • The consumption of meat, milk, eggs and farmed fish indirectly pushes
the consumption of grain
SalmonShrimps
Aquaculture is not always
environmentally sustainable
and efficient
Source: http://www.shrimpnews.com/Graphics/Nicaragua/MangrovesNicaragua.jpg

17. 1. Milk production
in India
THREE DIFFERENT MODELS
2. Chinese model: cultivation turnover
3. Chinese aquaculture
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/sudarshanpatel5/dairy-presentation-pgdma

18. Necessity to occupy an intermediate position in the food
chain: it will improve our life expectancy

19. EARTH’S CLIMATE: RISING TEMPERATURES
What makes the Earth’s temperatures rise?
The massive burning of fossil fuels is increasing the level of carbon
dioxid in the atmposhpere
http://climate.nasa.gov/

20. WHICH ARE THE CONSEQUENCES?
1. Agriculture: high temperatures interfere with pollination and
reduce photosynthesis of basic food crops
- corn pollination
- rice pollination
2. Increasing drought
3. Spreading of wildfires
4. Heat waves
1988 U.S.A.
2003 U.E.
2010 Russia
5. Melting mountain glaciers

21. MELTING MOUNTAIN GLACIERS
• China: the glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau feed
Yangtze river
Yellow river
• America
The Andes  Perù
The Rocky Mountains  Colorado River
• Greenland and Antarctic Rising sea level

22. BOOM OF PRODUCTION OF SOYBEAN
Reasons:
• Attainment of status
as valued grain (oil
and animal meal)
• Moving up in the food
chain (more meat)
• Growth of population
• Function as source for
biodiesel
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
World Soybean Meal Use for Feed, 1964-2011
Feed Use (Million Tons)
Source: earth policy institution.
See: http://www.earth-policy.org/books/fpep/fpep_data#10.

23. BOOM OF PRODUCTION OF SOYBEAN
Manifestation:
land for soybean
accounts more than
that for other grains in
the western hemispheric
• Surpassed wheat in
1994 (more than
twice as wheat in
2010)
• Surpassed corn in
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Million ton Wheat Corn Soybeans
Area Harvested for Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans in the
Western Hemisphere, 1960-2011
Source: earth policy institution.
See: http://www.earthpolicy.org/books/fpep/fpep_data#10

24. TOP 10 PRODUCERS, CONSUMERS, EXPORTERS, AND
IMPORTERS OF SOYBEANS, 2011
Producers Consumers
Rank Country Quantity Rank Country Quantity
Million Tons Million Tons
1 United States 83,2 1 China 70,8
2 Brazil 65,5 2 United States 48,8
3 Argentina 41,0 3 Brazil 39,5
4 China 13,5 4 Argentina 37,8
5 India 11,0 5 European Union 12,4
6 Canada 4,2 6 India 11,2
7 Paraguay 4,0 7 Mexico 3,6
8 Bolivia 2,2 8 Japan 3,0
9 Ukraine 2,2 9 Indonesia 2,6
10 Russia 1,7 10 Russia 2,4
Rest of World 7,5 Rest of World 21,9
Total 236,0 Total 253,8
Exporters Importers
Rank Country Quantity Rank Country Quantity
Million Tons Million Tons
1 United States 36,7 1 China 57,5
2 Brazil 36,7 2 European Union 11,0
3 Argentina 7,8 3 Mexico 3,4
4 Paraguay 3,1 4 Japan 2,7
5 Canada 2,8 5 Taiwan 2,3
6 Uruguay 1,6 6 Indonesia 2,0
7 Ukraine 1,3 7 Thailand 1,9
8 China 0,3 8 Egypt 1,6
9 South Africa 0,1 9 Vietnam 1,2
10 Croatia 0,0 10 Turkey 1,1
Rest of World 0,2 Rest of World 5,5
Total 90,5 Total 90,1
Source: earth policy institution. See: www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/xls/book_fpep_ch9_3.xlsx

25. PROBLEMS OWING TO INCREASING SOYBEAN YIELD
Reason:
characteristic of
soybean yield
– Difficult to
raise yield by
increasing the
yield per acre
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Production (Million Ton)
Area Harvested (Million Hectares)
Yield (Tons per Hectare)
World Soybean Production, Area, and Yield, 1950-2011
Source: earth policy institution.
See: www.earth-policy.org/datacenter/xls/book_fpep_ch9_1.xlsx

26. PROBLEMS OWING TO INCREASING SOYBEAN YIELD
• Manifestations:
– More lands was occupied for soybean production
– Less lands was available for other grains
– The adverse effects of transformation of usage of land
• Starvation
• Acceleration of deforestation
• Loss of biodiversity
• Increase of carbon emission
• Classic case:
Brazil: land clearing plan in the Amazon Basin and the Cerrado

27. 0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
1970 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Loss of Forest Cover in the Brazilian Amazon, 1970-2011
Total Loss Since 1970 Annual Loss
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Share of 1970 Cover lossing
Source: earth policy institution. See: http://www.earth-policy.org/books/fpep/fpep_data#10

28. SOLUTIONS FOR PROBLEMS OF
MASS CONSUMPTION OF SOYBEAN
• Nexus in the problems:
Economic pressure originated from the increasing demands of soybean
at a rapid rate
• Cardinal principle of the solutions:
Curbing the growth in demand for soybean
• Concrete solutions:
– Stabilization of population worldwide
– Advocacy of downturn in meat consumption to affluent population
• Other ways?
– Scientific progress in increasing the soybean yield per acre
– Search for the substitute of soybean in animal meal
– ……

29. GLOBAL LAND RUSH
Rising food prices Restriction of food exportations “land grabs”
• Leading countries: Saudi Arabia, South Korea, China, India
• Countries selling or leasing lands: Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia

30. 1. Land acquisition is also water acquisition
Who benefits?
PROBLEMS:
2. Secret agreements  local farmers are not at the negotiating table
3. Increase in world’s hunger and human rights violations
4. Knowledge deficit
 problems in building infrastructures
 number of projects ≠ actual started productions
Source: http://www.bioecogeo.com/2014/10/28

31. • The World Bank working with the U.N. Food and Agriculture
Organization: set of principles governing land acquisitions
Developing countries need international support for local
village-level farmers
and NOT big corporations bringing large-scale, heavily
mechanized, capital- intensive agriculture

• Global power struggle for control of the earth’s land and
water resources

32. DEMAND SIDE
1. Stabilize world population
2. Eradicate poverty
3. Reduce excessive meat consumption
4. Reverse biofuels policies that encourage the use of food, land or
water that could be used to feed people
SUPPLY SIDE
1. Stabilize climate
2. Raise water productivity
3. Controlling soil erosion
‘’The challenge now is to move our civilization onto a sustainable path before climate
change spirals out of control and food shortages overwhelm our political system’’
PRESSING NEEDS