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FRiƐD: a novel 3D model of CMEs
Alexey Isavnin
University of Helsinki
Why model CMEs in 3D?
1. Space weather forecasting in relation to CMEs
includes prediction of both arrival time and magnetic
field.
2. In-situ magnetic field and arrival time depend on
geometry of the encounter with a CME.
3. CMEs experience global 3D deformations that alter
their local properties.
●
Reasonable 3D geometry
●
Support for typical deformations
●
Expansion
●
Deflection
●
Rotation
●
”Pancaking” due to radial expansion
●
Skew due to solar rotation
●
Front flattening (fast CMEs)
●
3D magnetic field configuration
What a CME model should be capable of?
Common approach: focus on one or two characteristics
of CME structure and evolution and neglect all the others.
Solution: let's merge all the major aspects of CMEs
into a single model: Flux Rope in 3D or FRi3D.
Starting with simplified hydrodynamic description:
magnetic slingshot in a radial outflow.
Balance of hydrodynamic forces and magnetic tension
provides an estimate for the shape of a CME.
Figuring out the shape of CME
Figuring out the shape of CME
The solution supports front flattening with a single parameter.
”Pancaking” and rotational skew can be easily introduced
via geometric transformations.
”Pancaking” and rotational skew
”pancaking” rotational skew
The shell is continuously analytic and supports deformations.
3D shell of the FRi3D model
front flattening ”pancaking” rotational skew
Classical Lundquist representation: twist increases towards
the edge of a flux rope going to infinity.
Twist of magnetic field-lines in a flux rope
The twist in flux-rope CMEs is low and constant
contradictory to the Lundquist solution
center edge
Hu et al., 2015
Lundquist solution
Twist of magnetic field-lines in a flux rope
FRi3D with constant twist and flux conservation
Cross-section of the FRi3D model
FRi3D model MHD simulations
FRi3D reproduces pancaking similarly to MHD simulations.
Synthetic in-situ measurements of magnetic field
cross through the apex
Fitting FRi3D to a real CME: white-light
Fitting FRi3D to a real CME: in-situ
●
only pancaking expansion
●
completely independent
from remote observations
Results
●
deflection and rotation
towards equatorial plane
●
slight overexpansion
Fitting FRi3D to a real CME: in-situ
Comparison with Grad-Shafranov reconstruction
GS reconstruction FRi3D model
●
unrealistic circular shape
●
underestimated impact distance
●
realistic pancaked shape
●
larger imact distance
Outlook
FRi3D can be applied to any white-light and in-situ
observations, which gives numerous possibilities
for future studies:
●
non-trivial geometries of spacecraft-CME encounters, e.g.,
through the leg of a CME
●
multi-spacecraft and spacecraft line-up events → CME
evolution, space weather forecasting
●
3D fits of heliospheric imager data → space weather
forecasting, for L5 missions especially
●
input to MHD simulations → CME evolution, CME-CME
interaction

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Global Modelling of the Space Weather Chain (2016)

  • 1. FRiƐD: a novel 3D model of CMEs Alexey Isavnin University of Helsinki
  • 2. Why model CMEs in 3D? 1. Space weather forecasting in relation to CMEs includes prediction of both arrival time and magnetic field. 2. In-situ magnetic field and arrival time depend on geometry of the encounter with a CME. 3. CMEs experience global 3D deformations that alter their local properties.
  • 3. ● Reasonable 3D geometry ● Support for typical deformations ● Expansion ● Deflection ● Rotation ● ”Pancaking” due to radial expansion ● Skew due to solar rotation ● Front flattening (fast CMEs) ● 3D magnetic field configuration What a CME model should be capable of? Common approach: focus on one or two characteristics of CME structure and evolution and neglect all the others. Solution: let's merge all the major aspects of CMEs into a single model: Flux Rope in 3D or FRi3D.
  • 4. Starting with simplified hydrodynamic description: magnetic slingshot in a radial outflow. Balance of hydrodynamic forces and magnetic tension provides an estimate for the shape of a CME. Figuring out the shape of CME
  • 5. Figuring out the shape of CME The solution supports front flattening with a single parameter.
  • 6. ”Pancaking” and rotational skew can be easily introduced via geometric transformations. ”Pancaking” and rotational skew ”pancaking” rotational skew
  • 7. The shell is continuously analytic and supports deformations. 3D shell of the FRi3D model front flattening ”pancaking” rotational skew
  • 8. Classical Lundquist representation: twist increases towards the edge of a flux rope going to infinity. Twist of magnetic field-lines in a flux rope
  • 9. The twist in flux-rope CMEs is low and constant contradictory to the Lundquist solution center edge Hu et al., 2015 Lundquist solution Twist of magnetic field-lines in a flux rope
  • 10. FRi3D with constant twist and flux conservation
  • 11. Cross-section of the FRi3D model FRi3D model MHD simulations FRi3D reproduces pancaking similarly to MHD simulations.
  • 12. Synthetic in-situ measurements of magnetic field cross through the apex
  • 13. Fitting FRi3D to a real CME: white-light
  • 14. Fitting FRi3D to a real CME: in-situ ● only pancaking expansion ● completely independent from remote observations Results ● deflection and rotation towards equatorial plane ● slight overexpansion
  • 15. Fitting FRi3D to a real CME: in-situ
  • 16. Comparison with Grad-Shafranov reconstruction GS reconstruction FRi3D model ● unrealistic circular shape ● underestimated impact distance ● realistic pancaked shape ● larger imact distance
  • 17. Outlook FRi3D can be applied to any white-light and in-situ observations, which gives numerous possibilities for future studies: ● non-trivial geometries of spacecraft-CME encounters, e.g., through the leg of a CME ● multi-spacecraft and spacecraft line-up events → CME evolution, space weather forecasting ● 3D fits of heliospheric imager data → space weather forecasting, for L5 missions especially ● input to MHD simulations → CME evolution, CME-CME interaction