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第二课生产决策 For 中大2011 may
- 1. 生产决策 中大 2011 年5 月 7 日 1
- 2. 你们需要决定的 价格 设备投资 产量 MPI 研发 市场营销
- 3. 价格策略 p ricing s tra te g y 大规模 小规模 中等规模 低价位战略 高价位战略 中价格战 略 优势 更低的生产成 更大的利润空 低风险 本 间 更大的销售量 足够的销售量 稳定的收入 目标 合理定价 市场营销和 战略的一贯 关键 研发上的投 性 入
- 4. 案例 1 ：生产战略与产量/ 品种 王敬途
- 5. 案例：梅赛德斯 - 奔驰A M G 系 列
- 6. 案例：梅赛德斯 - 奔驰A M G 系 丰富 列 AMG 系列介绍 : •源于赛车运动 个性化 A 改装车 •擅长引擎改装和设计 •量产高性能汽车 品 种 B •吻合奔驰气质，改进原有动力系 统 多 样 C 性 D 稀少 低产 产品数量 高产
- 7. 案例：梅赛德斯 - 奔驰A M G 系 列 S600 S65AMG 厂方指导价： 259.8 万 厂方指导价： 329.8 万
- 8. 案例：梅赛德斯 - 奔驰A M G 系 列 S600 S65AMG 核心：“一人一机 ”
- 9. MPI(MESE Performance Index) 影响因素 权重 留存收益 50% 需求潜力 10% 供应潜力 10% 生产效率 10% 市场占有率 10% 增长潜力 10%
- 10. MESE 六大步骤 选择定价目 确定需求 估计成本 标 分析竞争者 选定最终价格 选择定价方法 成本、价格 和提供物
- 11. Exercise 1: PriceStrategy and Production Make your decisions: --Price $_________ --Production _________ units
- 12. Business Goals andStrategy Supply Chain Design Business Requirements Supply Chain Requirements Supply Chain Design
- 13. Why Does SupplyNetwork Design Matter? Majority of a supply chain’s lifecycle costs are locked-in at the start. Strategic Supply Chain Design and Optimization Such “up-front” decisions 80% include: Distribution network Tactical Inventory Locations Advanced Planning and Customization strategies— Scheduling what and where to customize Equipment (Vendor) Selection MRP/ERP Operational Target customer service 20% In-house vs. contract Execution Services Decisions Solutions Value Processes Manufacturing Source : AMR Research
- 14. 案例 2 Southwest Airlines 美国西南航空公司 14
- 15. Financial Performance Stock Chart 美西南航空公司已连续 37 年保持了赢利
- 16. Market Share ... Year2006 : Market Share
- 17. Company Overview... S ou t h w e s t A i r l i n e s , Inc. (NYSE: LUV), is . . . major domestic airline that provides :… ♥ primarily short haul ♥ high-frequency ♥ point-to-point ♥ low-fare service The third-largest airline in the Founded 1971 world by number of passengers carried and the Fleet size 472 largest in the United States Destination 63 by number of passengers carried domestically. Headquarter Dallas, s Texas
- 18. VISION & mission... Our Vision Dedication to the highest quality of Customer Service delivered with a sense of warmth, friendliness, individual pride, and Company Spirit Our provide safe and comfortable air transportation Mission in commuter and short-haul markets, from close-in airports, at prices competitive with automobiles and buses and to involve customers and employees in the product and the process, making the airline a fun, profitable and quality experience.
- 19. Building Capable Organization . Staffing the Organization Southwest’s Core Competencies and Capability Competitive Capabilities Matching the Organization Structure to Strategy
- 20. Core Competencies & Competitive Capabilities Low Operating Cost ♥ Operate one type of aircraft. ♥ Make reservations and purchase tickets at the company’s website. ♥ Tried to steer clear of congested airports, stressing instead serving airports relatively near major metropolitan areas and in medium-sized cities. ♥ Using point-to-point scheduling of flights. ♥ There is no reserved seat for each passenger. ♥ No first class section, no fancy clubs at terminal and no meals. ♥ No baggage transfer services to other carriers. ♥ Convert from cloth to leather seats 飞机的过站时间通常只有 25 分钟 飞行员每月飞行时间 62 个小时，是联航和美洲公司飞行员工作时间的两倍。 平均每天每架起飞 7.2 次，每架飞机平均每天在空中飞行的时间大约为 12 小时
- 21. Core Competencies & Competitive Capabilities Keep Employees Happy – then they will keep customers happy ♥ Make sure passengers had a positive, fun flying experience. ♥ Presenting a happy face to passengers and displaying a fun loving attitude. ♥ Complaint letters were seen as learning opportunities for employees and reasons to consider making adjustments
- 23. Hair Care Strategy Shampoo Conditioner Drive & Treatment Image+High NOS Mass Premium Specialty 精品 形象 + 利潤 Derma & Clinicare Where To Play Drive Volume VS & VS H&S / Pert Pantene / Pert +consumer base 銷售量 + 擴大消 Base 費群 主流 Expand Adjacency VS Styling 系列完整性 Strong PI / CI WIN Trial & re- Distribution Key Business Driver Advertisement Trial Pricing Best-In-Class FMOT Shelving Merchandising 50 / 50 in SH/CN by 2010/11 Vision
- 24. Mass Premium Shampoo/Conditioner Innovation 1. Develop robust innovation master plan @ right GM level 2. Niche SKU supply network design 3. Design in Japan, Made in China Current Need to have clear GTM Future strategy( trial, regiment use, JVC etc) to evaluate the specific SC implications Cost Efficient Localize the supply chain including manufacturing, mold, packing material. Responsive Type of Supply Chain Required
- 25. Price, Demand andSupply
- 26. 生产成本曲线 在每期不同生产水平下的 成本行为 短期平均成本曲线 短期平均 1 单 成本曲线 2 单 3 位 位 4 成 成 长期平 本 本 均成本 曲线 生产规模 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 1,000 生产规模 在固定规模工厂中 关于不同规模工厂 的成本曲线 的成本曲线
- 27. C o st&C a s h 成本 & 资金 • P ro d uc tio n C o s t/Unit 生产成本 – 可变成本（材料 , 维修费用 , …… ） – 固定成本 ( 厂房 , 设备折旧 … ) • To ta l C o s t/unit 总成本 – 市场营销，渠道与销售费用等 , 按销售 量分摊 – 销量增加，成本如何变化？ • Wo rking C a p ita l/C a s h F lo w 现金 流 – 库存 – 固定资产投资 ,
- 28. 生产供应模式 : •Pro d uc e to D e ma nd •P ro d uc e to B uffe r •P ro d uc e to C o s t e ffe c tive ne s s
- 29. MESE 六大步骤 选择定价目 确定需求 估计成本 标 分析竞争者 选定最终价格 选择定价方法 成本、价格 和提供物
- 30. Exercise 2~4: PriceStrategy and Production Make your decisions: --Price $_________ --Production _________ units
- 31. Capacity Master Plan •C a p a c ity 生产能力 – 最经济有效的产出量 , ME S E @80% – 实际取决于行业特性 • C a p a c ity L e a d time • D e fine C a p a c ity: D e ma nd Ra tio – B us ine s s Mo d e l – S up p ly Mo d e l : • P ro d uc e to D e ma nd • P ro d uc e to B uffe r • P ro d uc e to C o s t e ffe c tive ne s s
- 32. Fluctuations and CapacityStrategy Analysis • Theory of 6 Sigma and Statistical Control • Predict the future fluctuation based on historical shipment plus CBD inputs • Scenarios of 1stdv=68%, 1.28stdv=90%, 2stdv=95%, 3stdv=99% • Strategy choice to protect base business: no >=2mth C:D ratio below target 400000 350000 2 stedv: Preferred capacity, prebuild lead time needs 1mth 300000 250000 1 Stdv. Minimum capacity, prebuild lead time needs 2mth 200000 su/month 150000 100000 50000 0 January March May July September November January March May July September 2006 2007 Actual Demand 2std 95% 1Std.(68%)
- 33. Rejoice Pump Size China Rejoice Shampoo 750ml/1000ml Supply Chain Capacity Strategy Assessment 450000 Preferred capacity, prebuild lead time needs 1mth, C:D Ratio: 1.78 400000 350000 300000 Minimum capacity, prebuild lead time needs 2mth, C:D Ratio: 1.50 250000 su/month 200000 150000 Promotion 100000 50000 0 January March May July September November January March May July September Actual Demand 2std 95% 1Std.(68%) • Pump size has a lot more fluctuation than others. Is it promotion choices? • Insufficient pump size capacity has resulted in tight supply! May07 June07 July07 Aug07 Sep07 Oct07 C:D 1.17 1.02 1.03 1.17 1.4 1.21 • Need increase pump size C:D ratio to 1.5
- 34. Packing Line CapacityMaster Plan Total Bottle Demand and Capacity CAGR : HairC @10% and PCC @15% 120.0 Current + XQ Line#6 100.0 Current Bottle lines , 86.5 capacity, 78.5 80.0 18.0 16.1 14.3 60.0 12.4 10.1 40.0 65.0 71.5 61.1 48.6 53.1 20.0 0.0 FY06/07 FY07/08 FY08/09 FY09/10 FY10/11 •…………. HairC Bottle (mmsu) Total Bodywash Demandx2 Current Bottle lines capacity Current + XQ Line#6
- 35. Total Bottle Demandand Capacity-- What If CAGR : HairC @14% and PCC @30% 120.0 Current Bottle lines capacity, Current + XQ Line#6 , 86.5 78.5 100.0 28.9 80.0 24.6 18.0 60.0 13.4 m u s 40.0 82.1 72.0 55.4 63.2 20.0 0.0 FY07/08 FY08/09 FY09/10 FY10/11 what-if HC grows at 14% what-if bodywash grows @30% Current Bottle lines capacity Current + XQ Line#6 Current + 2nd new bottle line HairCare PCC Capacity gaps in What-If Scenarios Growth Growth 08/09 Line#6 SOP Scenario 1 10% 15% No gap AMJ 09 Scenario 2 14% 30% 2.7 JFM09
- 36. Fulfillment Center MasterPlans 19100 11200 6500 3500 1100 Fulfillment BJ/SH BJ/SH BJ BJ/SH BJ/SH/GZ Center GZ/CD GZ/CD/SY 1000 ave.order #/day is breakeven point to trigger a new regional fulfillment center set up
- 37. Exercise 2~4: Investmenton Production Capacity Make your decisions: --Price $_________ --Production _________ units --Capacity Investment $_________
- 38. S umma ry •供应链的设计要满足商业模式和业务策略 的要求 ; • 采取正确的价格与生产规模组合的企业才 能获得最高的利润 ; • 供需要平衡 • 合理的负债和现金 • 预期竞争对手的决策 • 80% 的负荷率是生产成本的最佳规模，
Editor's Notes
- #10 留存收益只要大于初期水平，就会加分。 需求潜力由初期开始的市场份额和研发投入决定，假设市场份额建立品牌，研发增加产品价值。 供应潜力由产能决定，与产品的盈利性无关。 生产效率在 75% ～ 85% 范围以外这个分值会下降。 市场占有率由评价期市场占有率决定。 增长潜力通过比较公司的销量增长率与行业平均销量增长率决定。
- #13 Glenn: The SET is a methodology centered around 4 themes: Business and Supply Network Strategies , where identifying the competitive positioning of the product in the market and those activities the business undertakes to support it are identified; Comp Strategy : SAIL’s strategy is broad differentation; as are many P&G brands. An exception might be Gleem vs. Crest. Strat. Activities : Availability to specific demographics; Standardized equipment; Prevent Counterfeiting; Price-led cost structure. Industry and Technology Trends , where an understanding of external influences on a business’ capabilities, particularly those related to technology advantages and competition, is developed; Clockspeed : Disruptive Technology : Supply Network Strategic Value , understanding what capabilities are strategic to a firm, and whether the firm controls those capabilities or not, is explored; Who Controls The Assets? : Aleve? How to Grow When Markets Don’t? Outsourcing : Organization and Focus , developing internal work processes to collaborate and deliver against marketplace needs is understood. These four themes are explored in depth by engaging in eight Discussion Topics designed to facilitate a Business Leadership Team’s understanding of their business strategy in terms of the supply network, and to determine how to leverage those capabilities to support the strategy. Strategy Engagement isn’t necessarily a linear process, but intended to provide different lenses into the SND and to understand it from multiple angles. Mike:
- #27 在本期的模拟中，生产成本的高低取决于两个因素：规模和运营效率
- #37 Total