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                                             Singapore Airlines




                               Exalt	
  Consulting	
  
Grace	
  Lin	
  |	
  Amelia	
  Lee	
  |	
  Peh	
  Che	
  Min	
  |	
  Kwek	
  Hsien	
  Yao	
  
Agenda	
  	
  

                                            Situa(onal	
  Analysis	
  	
  


                                                   Accentuate	
  	
  	
  


                                                    Cul(vate	
  


                                                     Enhance	
  	
  	
  


                                         Financials	
  and	
  milestone	
  	
  




Key	
  issues	
  	
     Accentuate	
          Cul0vate	
                    Enhance	
     Implementa0on	
  
Core	
  business	
  is	
  in	
  air	
  transport	
  	
  


                                                                                  2009-­‐2010	
  Revenue	
  	
  
      2005-­‐2006	
  Revenue	
  	
  
                        2%	
                                                    1%	
                   Airline	
  opera0ons	
  	
  
         2%	
  
                    7%	
  
                                                                      16%	
                            Airport	
  terminal	
  and	
  
                                                                                                       food	
  opera0ons	
  	
  
                                                             7%	
                                      Engineering	
  service	
  	
  

                                                        4%	
                                           Cargo	
  opera0ons	
  	
  
                                 89%	
                                                   72%	
  

                                                                                                       Others	
  	
  




Key	
  issues	
  	
               Accentuate	
           Cul0vate	
                      Enhance	
           Implementa0on	
  
Core	
  business	
  is	
  in	
  air	
  transport	
  	
  


                                                                          2009-­‐2010	
  Revenue	
  	
  
      2005-­‐2006	
  Revenue	
  	
  
                        2%	
                                            1%	
                   Airline	
  opera0ons	
  	
  
         2%	
  
            7%	
  
        Airline	
  opera0ons	
  accounts	
  for	
  bulk	
  of	
  revenue	
  	
   and	
  
                                             16%	
                Airport	
  terminal	
  
                                                                  food	
  opera0ons	
  	
  
        Cargo	
  opera0ons	
  grew	
  7%	
  
                                      significantly	
  over	
  Engineering	
  service	
  	
  
                                                                   5	
  years	
  
                                                                 	
  
                                                        4%	
                                   Cargo	
  opera0ons	
  	
  
                                 89%	
                                           72%	
  

                                                                                               Others	
  	
  




Key	
  issues	
  	
               Accentuate	
           Cul0vate	
              Enhance	
           Implementa0on	
  
Compe00ve	
  advantage	
  lies	
  in	
  a	
  duo	
  strategy	
  of	
  
                                 differen0a0on	
  and	
  cost	
  


               Strong	
  focus	
  on	
  innova0on	
  	
  	
                    Emphasis	
  on	
  core	
  business	
  




                         DIfferentiation	
                                         Cost effectiveness 	


                        Service	
  excellence	
  	
                                    Cost	
  management	
  	


                         Product	
  quality	
  	
                                   Flexibility	
  in	
  downturn	




Key	
  issues	
  	
             Accentuate	
                    Cul0vate	
             Enhance	
              Implementa0on	
  
Compe00ve	
  advantage	
  lies	
  in	
  a	
  duo	
  strategy	
  of	
  
                                 differen0a0on	
  and	
  cost	
  


               Strong	
  focus	
  on	
  innova0on	
  	
  	
                    Emphasis	
  on	
  core	
  business	
  




         Con0nuously	
  reinvent	
  and	
  maintain	
  focus	
  on	
  core	
  business	
  
              DIfferentiation	
             	
            Cost effectiveness 	


                        Service	
  excellence	
  	
                                    Cost	
  management	
  	


                         Product	
  quality	
  	
                                   Flexibility	
  in	
  downturn	




Key	
  issues	
  	
             Accentuate	
                    Cul0vate	
             Enhance	
              Implementa0on	
  
Industry	
  trends	
  drive	
  need	
  for	
  innova0on	
  
                                                and	
  new	
  areas	
  for	
  growth	
  	
  


            Stronger	
  compe((on	
  	
  
                  Full	
  airline	
  service	
  	
  
                                                               Leisure	
  travel	
  is	
  cyclical	
  and	
  vola0le	
  	
  
                        Expansion	
  	
  


                Quality	
  service	
  and	
                            Industry	
  facing	
  overcapacity	
  	
  
                     product	
  	
  	
  

                   Low	
  cost	
  carrier	
  	
  

                   Long	
  haul	
  flights	
                        Vulnerable	
  to	
  external	
  shocks	
  

                        Full	
  service	
  	
  




Key	
  issues	
  	
                 Accentuate	
        Cul0vate	
                    Enhance	
                 Implementa0on	
  
Industry	
  trends	
  and	
  nature	
  drive	
  need	
  for	
  
                                                 innova0on	
  and	
  flexibility	
  


            Stronger	
  compe((on	
  	
  
                  Full	
  airline	
  service	
  	
  
                                                                              Cyclical	
  and	
  vola0le	
  	
  
                        Expansion	
  	
  
 Innovate	
  and	
  differen0ate	
  to	
  keep	
  compe00ve	
  edge	
  
   Remain	
  flexible	
  to	
  respond	
  to	
  external	
  condi0ons	
  	
  
     Quality	
  service	
  and	
                 Overcapacity	
  	
  
                           product	
  	
  	
                  	
  
                   Low	
  cost	
  carrier	
  	
  

                   Long	
  haul	
  flights	
                          Vulnerability	
  to	
  external	
  shocks	
  	
  	
  

                        Full	
  service	
  	
  




Key	
  issues	
  	
                 Accentuate	
          Cul0vate	
                    Enhance	
                  Implementa0on	
  
Need	
  to	
  remain	
  compe00ve	
  and	
  profitable	
  


      Where	
  we	
  are	
  	
                          Where	
  we	
  want	
  to	
  be	
  	
  
  •  High	
  end,	
  premium	
  full	
                •  Remain	
  compe00ve	
  and	
  
     service	
  carrier	
                                profitability	
  in	
  the	
  next	
  10	
  
  •  Known	
  for	
  service	
  and	
                    years	
  	
  
     quality	
  products	
  	
                        •  Con0nue	
  to	
  be	
  the	
  brand	
  of	
  
  •  Biggest	
  airline	
  by	
  market	
                choice	
  for	
  air	
  transport	
  	
  
     capitalisa0on	
  	
  




Key	
  issues	
  	
      Accentuate	
         Cul0vate	
              Enhance	
           Implementa0on	
  
Need	
  to	
  remain	
  compe00ve	
  and	
  profitable	
  


      Where	
  we	
  are	
  	
                           Where	
  we	
  want	
  to	
  be	
  	
  
  •  High	
  end,	
  premium	
  full	
                   •  Remain	
  compe00ve	
  and	
  
     service	
  carrier	
                                   profitability	
  in	
  the	
  next	
  10	
  
  •  Known	
  for	
  service	
  and	
   Key	
  Issues:	
  	
   	
  
                                                            years	
  
     quality	
  products	
  	
   to	
  innovate	
  to	
  • emain	
  compe00ve?	
  brand	
  of	
  
                 1.  How	
                               r Con0nue	
  to	
  be	
  the	
   	
  
        2.  How	
  much	
  focus	
  should	
  be	
  choice	
  fon	
  aore	
  business?	
  
  •  Biggest	
  airline	
  by	
  market	
                   placed	
   or	
  c ir	
  transport	
  	
  
      capitalisa0on	
  	
  




Key	
  issues	
  	
      Accentuate	
          Cul0vate	
              Enhance	
           Implementa0on	
  
Innova0on	
  and	
  focus	
  are	
  the	
  key	
  
                                                    issues	
  	
  


                        Key	
  Issue	
  	
                                     Concerns	
  	
  	
  
                                                               • 	
  Product:	
  Reduce	
  or	
  maintain	
  
                                                               number	
  of	
  service	
  classes;	
  
        How	
  to	
  innovate	
  to	
  remain	
  
                                                               scheduling	
  complexity	
  	
  
        compe00ve?	
  
                                                               • 	
  Brand:	
  Relevance	
  of	
  Singapore	
  
                                                               girl	
  	
  


                                                               • 	
  Narrow	
  or	
  balanced	
  porolio:	
  	
  
        How	
  much	
  focus	
  should	
  be	
                 balance	
  flexibility	
  and	
  
        placed	
  on	
  core	
  business	
  ?	
                diversifica0on	
  	
  	
  
                                                               	
  	
  


Key	
  issues	
  	
          Accentuate	
           Cul0vate	
                Enhance	
               Implementa0on	
  
Our	
  ACE	
  strategy	
  	
  


                                                         E	
  
                                                 C	
  
                                         A	
  




                                                                                      Accentuate	
  
                                                                                      Cul0vate	
  
                                                                                      Enhance	
  

Key	
  issues	
  	
     Accentuate	
                     Cul0vate	
     Enhance	
          Implementa0on	
  
Increased	
                              Scheduling	
  
                    compe00on	
                               Complexity	
  




                              Business-­‐only	
  Flights	
  to	
  	
  
                             Financial	
  Hubs	
  in	
  Europe	
  	
  

Key	
  Issues	
           Accentuate	
       Cul0vate	
        Enhance	
       Implementa0on	
  
Increased	
                              Scheduling	
  
                    compe00on	
                               Complexity	
  



                                     ACCENTUATE	
  	
  
                                   Premium	
  Quality	
  
                              Business-­‐only	
  Flights	
  to	
  	
  
                             Financial	
  Hubs	
  in	
  Europe	
  	
  



Key	
  Issues	
           Accentuate	
       Cul0vate	
        Enhance	
       Implementa0on	
  
Why	
  Europe?	
  


                                                 Middle	
  East	
  	
          Europe	
             China	
  


            Exis(ng	
  
25%	
  
            compe((on	
  	
  
            Government	
  
25%	
  
            regula(on	
  	
  
            Poten(al	
  demand	
  
25%	
  

            Suitability	
  
25%	
  




 Key	
  Issues	
                Accentuate	
                    Cul0vate	
         Enhance	
     Implementa0on	
  
Why	
  Europe?	
  
                    Brand	
  recogni0on	
                      Business	
  between	
  
                        in	
  Europe	
                          Asia	
  and	
  Europe	
  


                               Why	
  business-­‐only?	
  
                      Success	
  in	
  US	
                       SIA	
  appeal	
  to	
  
                      business-­‐only	
                        premium	
  travellers	
  




Key	
  Issues	
        Accentuate	
             Cul0vate	
              Enhance	
       Implementa0on	
  
Why	
  Europe?	
  

                     Brand	
  recogni0on	
                Business	
  between	
  
                         in	
  Europe	
                    Asia	
  and	
  Europe	
  


•  Established	
  network	
  
   and	
  sustainable	
  demand	
  
•  21.8%	
  of	
  SIA	
  revenue	
  
•  OAG	
  Airline	
  Industry	
  
   Awards	
  based	
  in	
  UK	
  (6-­‐
   0me	
  winner)	
  

 Key	
  Issues	
        Accentuate	
       Cul0vate	
        Enhance	
        Implementa0on	
  
Why	
  Europe?	
  

                    Brand	
  recogni0on	
                                                       Business	
  between	
  
                        in	
  Europe	
                                                           Asia	
  and	
  Europe	
  

                     250,000.00	
  



                     200,000.00	
  
                                                                                                                          Europe	
  
                     150,000.00	
  



                     100,000.00	
  
                                                                                                                          USA	
  
                      50,000.00	
  
                                                                                                                          Asia	
  
                             0.00	
  
                                        1998	
     2003	
     2004	
      2005	
     2006	
      2007	
       2008	
  



                         Stock	
  of	
  FDI	
  in	
  Singapore	
  (S$millions)	
  

Key	
  Issues	
          Accentuate	
                              Cul0vate	
                               Enhance	
       Implementa0on	
  
Why	
  business-­‐only?	
  

                                Success	
  in	
  US	
                        SIA	
  appeal	
  to	
  
                                business-­‐only	
                         premium	
  travellers	
  


                                        A340-­‐500	
  is	
  re-­‐fieed	
  
                                        with	
  business	
  seats	
  	
  

                    	
  	
  	
  	
  “Our	
  perseverance	
  through	
  the	
  early	
  part	
  of	
  the	
  
                                     downturn	
  un6l	
  mid-­‐2009	
  has	
  been	
  vindicated	
  by	
  the	
  
                                     fact	
  that	
  non-­‐stop	
  to	
  New	
  York	
  has	
  been	
  running	
  
                                     near-­‐full	
  capacity	
  these	
  last	
  few	
  months.”	
  
                                                 -­‐	
  CEO	
  Mr.	
  Chew	
  Choon	
  Seng	
  
Key	
  Issues	
               Accentuate	
                Cul0vate	
                Enhance	
            Implementa0on	
  
Why	
  business-­‐only?	
  

                     Success	
  in	
  US	
                      SIA	
  appeal	
  to	
  premium	
  
                     business-­‐only	
                                   travellers	
  


                                               • 	
  Business	
  travel	
  is	
  less	
  affected	
  by	
  
                                               business	
  cycles	
  	
  

                                               • 	
  Less	
  price	
  sensi(ve	
  

                                               • 	
  40%	
  of	
  revenue	
  comes	
  from	
  
                                               premium	
  travellers	
  
                                               	
  


Key	
  Issues	
     Accentuate	
               Cul0vate	
              Enhance	
           Implementa0on	
  
Why	
  business-­‐only?	
  

                       Success	
  in	
  US	
                      SIA	
  appeal	
  to	
  premium	
  
                       business-­‐only	
                                   travellers	
  
                      Reduce	
                                        Reduce	
  
                    scheduling	
                             vulnerability	
  to	
  
                                                 • 	
  Business	
  travel	
  is	
  less	
  affected	
  by	
  
                    complexity	
                             business	
  cycles	
  
                                                 business	
  cycles	
  	
  

                                     Increased	
   sensi(ve	
  
                                        • 	
  Less	
  price	
  
                                   differen(a(on	
  
                                                 • 	
  40%	
  of	
  revenue	
  comes	
  from	
  
                                                 premium	
  travellers	
  
                                                 	
  


Key	
  Issues	
       Accentuate	
               Cul0vate	
              Enhance	
           Implementa0on	
  
Where	
  in	
  Europe	
  
70000	
  

60000	
  

50000	
  
                                                                                              France	
  

40000	
                                                                                       Germany	
  

                                                                                              Netherlands	
  
30000	
  
                                                                                              Switzerland	
  
20000	
  
                                                                                              United	
  Kingdom	
  

10000	
  

      0	
  
              1998	
     2003	
     2004	
     2005	
     2006	
     2007	
     2008	
  



                                               1)	
  FRANCE,	
  Paris	
  
                                               2)	
  GERMANY,	
  Amsterdam	
  
                                               3)	
  SWITZERLAND,	
  Zurich	
  


Key	
  Issues	
                                Accentuate	
                                 Cul0vate	
                Enhance	
     Implementa0on	
  
The	
  Singapore	
  Girl	
  


                                                 • Consistent	
  brand	
  since	
  1972	
  
                                                 • Icon	
  of	
  Singapore	
  Airlines	
  
                                                 • Symbol	
  of	
  warmth	
  and	
  
                                                 hospitality	
  



                A	
  Na0onal	
  Icon	
  that	
  is	
  Interna0onally	
  Recognised	
  




Key	
  Issues	
         Accentuate    	
  	
         Cul0vate 	
  	
     Enhance	
        Financials	
  
The	
  Singapore	
  Girl	
  


  Increased	
  compe00on	
  	
  
                                                            “Sexist”	
  cri0cism:	
  
  -­‐ Regional,	
  global	
  
                                                            stereotype	
  of	
  Oriental	
  girl	
  
  -­‐ 	
  Premium,	
  budget	
  




    Consistent	
  brand	
  icon	
  for	
                       Modern,	
  out-­‐spoken	
  girl	
  
       premium	
  service	
                                      image	
  publicised	
  


Key	
  Issues	
     Accentuate     	
  	
       Cul0vate 	
  	
         Enhance	
          Financials	
  
The	
  Singapore	
  Girl	
  


  Increased	
  compe00on	
  	
  
                                       “Sexist”	
  cri0cism:	
  
  -­‐ Regional,	
  global	
  
                                       stereotype	
  of	
  Oriental	
  girl	
  
  -­‐ 	
  Premium,	
  budget	
  
                        Enhance	
  ‘modernity’	
  and	
  
                         ‘professionalism’	
  of	
  the	
  
                              Singapore	
  Girl	
  

    Consistent	
  brand	
  icon	
  for	
                       Modern,	
  out-­‐spoken	
  girl	
  
       premium	
  service	
                                      image	
  publicised	
  


Key	
  Issues	
     Accentuate     	
  	
       Cul0vate 	
  	
         Enhance	
          Financials	
  
The	
  Singapore	
  Girl	
  


             Subservient	
  
                                                                  Well-­‐informed	
  	
  
                                                                  and	
  ar0culate	
  
Hospitable	
  
Warm	
  
Friendly	
  




Key	
  Issues	
       Accentuate   	
  	
     Cul0vate 	
  	
         Enhance	
     Financials	
  
The	
  Singapore	
  Girl	
  


             Subservient	
  
                                                                  Well-­‐informed	
  	
  
                                                                  and	
  ar0culate	
  
Hospitable	
  
Warm	
  
Friendly	
  
INTELLIGENT	
  
ARTICULATE	
  
WELL-­‐INFORMED	
  



Key	
  Issues	
       Accentuate   	
  	
     Cul0vate 	
  	
         Enhance	
     Financials	
  
The	
  Singapore	
  Girl	
  


             Subservient	
  
                                                                   Well-­‐informed	
  	
  
                                                                   and	
  ar0culate	
  
                                   Write	
  columns	
  
                        Host	
  “Travel	
  and	
  Living”	
  shows	
  




                Increased	
  recogni0on	
  for	
  the	
  news	
  companies	
  

Key	
  Issues	
        Accentuate   	
  	
     Cul0vate 	
  	
         Enhance	
     Financials	
  
The	
  Singapore	
  Girl	
  


             Subservient	
  
                                                                   Well-­‐informed	
  	
  
                                                                   and	
  ar0culate	
  
                            First:	
  regional.	
  
            Publicize	
  this	
  on	
  an	
  interna(onal	
  scale.	
  
                             Write	
  columns	
  
                        Host	
  “Travel	
  and	
  Living”	
  shows	
  

                                    Move	
  global.	
  	
  


                Increased	
  recogni0on	
  for	
  the	
  news	
  companies	
  

Key	
  Issues	
        Accentuate   	
  	
     Cul0vate 	
  	
         Enhance	
     Financials	
  
Enhance-­‐	
  Divest	
  Tradewinds	
  to	
  focus	
  on	
  
                                                        core	
  business	
  
                                                                         1                       2
                                                                             Divest	
  	
            Build	
  	
  




             35%	
     Strategic	
  importance	
  	
  

            25%	
      Ability	
  to	
  compete	
  	
  

            25%	
      Required	
  resources	
  

                       Revenue	
  contribu0on	
  	
  
            20%	
  

           100%	
      Total	
  	
  




Key	
  Issues	
               Accentuate	
                Cul0vate	
               Enhance	
                         Financials	
  
Divest	
  to	
  a	
  local	
  tour	
  agency	
  	
  
                                                                      1                       2
                                                                          Divest	
  	
            Build	
  	
  




                                 • 	
  9	
  strategic	
  branches	
  in	
  Singapore	
  
                                 • 	
  Cover	
  corporate	
  and	
  free	
  and	
  easy	
  tours	
  	
  
                                 • Progressively	
  growing	
  and	
  expanding	
  	
  




Key	
  Issues	
     Accentuate	
               Cul0vate	
                       Enhance	
                         Financials	
  
SIA	
  Cargo	
  
                                                                  1                            2
                                                                      Divest	
  	
                 Build	
  	
  


SIA	
  Cargo	
  contributes	
  17%	
  to	
                                             SIA	
  GROUP	
  
top	
  line	
  of	
  SIA	
  
	
  
Currently	
  flies	
  to	
  70	
  ci(es	
  in	
  36	
  
                                                                                                                    Passenger	
  
countries,	
  with	
  more	
  than	
  600	
  
                                                                                                                    Cargo	
  
flights	
  a	
  week	
  
	
                                                                                                                  Engineering	
  

3rd	
  largest	
  Cargo	
  carrier	
  in	
  the	
                                                                   Other	
  
world	
  	
  
	
  



 Key	
  Issues	
         Accentuate	
              Cul0vate	
               Enhance	
                              Financials	
  
Why	
  Focus	
  on	
  Cargo?	
  
                                                                            1                       2
ASIAN	
  EXPORT	
  ECONOMY	
  EXPECTED	
                                        Divest	
  	
            Build	
  	
  
TO	
  BE	
  ROBUST	
  	
  
• 	
  New	
  products	
  launched	
  with	
  rebound	
  in	
  
economy	
  	
  
• 	
  More	
  Just-­‐In-­‐Time	
  (JIT)	
  Inventory	
  
management	
  	
  
• 	
  Rising	
  trend	
  of	
  China’s	
  PMI	
  export	
  orders	
  	
  
	
  


CONSOLIDATION	
  OF	
  CARGO	
  SECTOR	
  
IN	
  JAPAN	
  AND	
  CHINA	
  
• 	
  Pose	
  as	
  a	
  strong	
  poten0al	
  compe0tor	
  	
  
• 	
  Greater	
  need	
  to	
  build	
  up	
  SIA	
  Cargo	
  to	
  
maintain	
  compe00ve	
  edge	
  	
  


Key	
  Issues	
              Accentuate	
                    Cul0vate	
               Enhance	
                         Financials	
  
Why	
  Focus	
  On	
  Cargo?	
  
                                                                               1                         2
                                                                                   Divest	
  	
              Build	
  	
  



    GLOBAL	
  INCREASE	
  IN	
  CARGO	
  
    FREIGHT	
  TONNES	
  	
  
    • 	
  40%	
  increase	
  in	
  Freight	
  tonnes	
  
    from	
  28.8	
  mil	
  to	
  40.3	
  mil	
  in	
  the	
  last	
  
    decade	
  
    • 	
  Falling	
  trend	
  in	
  US	
  Inventory/Sales	
  
    Ra0o	
  over	
  past	
  decade	
  
    	
  



                                                                                       US	
  Inventory/	
  Sales	
  Ra(o	
  



Key	
  Issues	
               Accentuate	
                      Cul0vate	
               Enhance	
                           Financials	
  
How	
  To	
  Enhance	
  SIA	
  Cargo?	
  
                                                       1                       2
                                                           Divest	
  	
            Build	
  	
  


Improve	
  opera(onal	
  efficiency	
  
and	
  exis(ng	
  technology	
  

Seek	
  growth	
  opportuni(es	
  in	
  
emerging	
  markets	
  	
  
	
  
Exercise	
  flexibility	
  in	
  
deployment	
  of	
  resources	
  	
  
	
  




Key	
  Issues	
     Accentuate	
        Cul0vate	
               Enhance	
                         Financials	
  
Seeking	
  Growth	
  Opportuni0es:	
  Mexico	
  
                                                   City	
  	
  
                                                                  1                       2
                                                                      Divest	
  	
            Build	
  	
  
Second	
  largest	
  economy	
  in	
  La(n	
  
America	
  
	
  
Largely	
  Export-­‐Oriented	
  country	
  	
  
	
  
SGD	
  24	
  229	
  mil	
  &	
  SGD	
  13	
  133	
  mil	
  
of	
  imports	
  and	
  exports	
  to	
  
Singapore	
  from	
  La(n	
  America	
  in	
  
2009	
  
	
  
SIA	
  Cargo	
  has	
  not	
  developed	
  its	
  
routes	
  to	
  La(n	
  America	
  	
  
	
  
	
  Key	
  Issues	
    Accentuate	
                Cul0vate	
               Enhance	
                         Financials	
  
Financial	
  Considera0ons	
  

                                               Revenues	
      2009	
                 2014	
  
                Highlights	
  
                                               From	
  
•  Passenger	
  Airlines	
  
                                               Economy	
       46%	
                  45%	
  
         •  4%	
  –	
  6%	
  CAGR	
  
•  Accentuate:	
  Business	
  Class	
  
   Passengers	
  Increase	
                    Premium	
       30%	
                  34%	
  
         •  6%	
  -­‐	
  8%	
  
•  Cul0vate	
  	
  
         •  0.5%	
  -­‐	
  1.5%	
              Cargo	
         19%	
                  18%	
  
•  Enhance:	
  Cargo	
  Traffic	
  
   Increase	
  
                                               Others	
        5%	
                   3%	
  
         •  5%	
  -­‐	
  6.5%	
  
•  5	
  Year	
  Forecast	
  




Key	
  Issues	
           Accentuate	
          Cul0vate	
              Enhance	
                Financials	
  
Financial	
  Performance	
  


                                                         CASH	
  FLOW	
  PROJECTION	
  
                                  600	
  


                                  500	
  


                                  400	
  
             SGD	
  Million	
  




                                  300	
  


                                  200	
  


                                  100	
  


                                      0	
  
                                              2010	
               2011	
             2012	
     2013	
        2014	
  




Key	
  Issues	
                               Accentuate	
                    Cul0vate	
         Enhance	
                Financials	
  
Financial	
  Performance	
  


                                                         REVENUE	
  PROJECTION	
  
                              20,000	
  

                              18,000	
  
                                                                                                                                 934	
  
                              16,000	
  

                              14,000	
  
         SGD	
  Million	
  




                              12,000	
  

                              10,000	
  

                               8,000	
  

                               6,000	
  

                               4,000	
  

                               2,000	
  

                                     0	
  
                                              2010	
            2011	
                    2012	
                 2013	
          2014	
  

                                                                      CURRENT	
  OPERATIONS	
        "ACE"	
  


                                             4.2%	
                                                                            5.2%	
  


Key	
  Issues	
                                Accentuate	
                    Cul0vate	
                        Enhance	
                  Financials	
  
NPV	
  Analysis	
  

                             2000	
  
                                                                                  Sensi(vity	
  Analysis	
  
                             1950	
  
                                                                                                                                1909	
  	
  
                             1900	
                                                        1875	
  	
  

                             1850	
                  1823	
  

                             1800	
                                                                                                                              1783	
  	
  
        SGD	
  Million	
  




                             1750	
                                                                                                            With	
  Terminal	
  
                                                                                          SGD	
  $1,736	
                                         Value:	
  
                               WACC	
  =	
  5.54%	
  
                             1700	
  
                                                                                            Million	
                                           SGD	
  $11,883	
  
                             1650	
                                                                                                                           1690	
  
                                                     1649	
  
                                                                                                                                                  Million	
  
                             1600	
  
                                                                                           1597	
  
                             1550	
                                                          	
                                 1690	
  
                             1500	
  
                                        Revenue	
  Drivers	
  (+-­‐	
  5%)	
   General	
  Expenses	
  (+-­‐5%)	
   Fuel	
  Expenses	
  (+-­‐10%)	
         NPV	
  (+-­‐20%)	
  




Key	
  Issues	
                                   Accentuate	
                             Cul0vate	
                             Enhance	
                        Financials	
  
Milestones	
  

                               2010   2011           2011      2013       2014      2015
Accentuate
1) Airplane Modification
2) Routes (Paris,
Amsterdam, Zurich)
Cultivate
1) Marketing Campaigns
Enhance
1)  Divest Trade Winds
     •  Valuate, finding
        partner Firm
     •  Sell share
2)  Cargo Operations
     1)  Route discovery
     2)  Implementation



Key	
  Issues	
     Accentuate	
      Cul0vate	
            Enhance	
            Financials	
  
Milestones	
  

                               2010   2011           2011      2013       2014      2015
Accentuate
1) Airplane Modification
2) Routes (Paris,
Amsterdam, Zurich)
Cultivate
1) Marketing Campaigns
Enhance
1)  Divest Trade Winds
     •  Valuate, finding
        partner Firm
     •  Sell share
2)  Cargo Operations
     1)  Route discovery
     2)  Implementation



Key	
  Issues	
     Accentuate	
      Cul0vate	
            Enhance	
            Financials	
  
Milestones	
  

                               2010   2011           2011      2013       2014      2015
Accentuate
1) Airplane Modification
2) Routes (Paris,
Amsterdam, Zurich)
Cultivate
1) Marketing Campaigns
Enhance
1)  Divest Trade Winds
     •  Valuate, finding
        partner Firm
     •  Sell share
2)  Cargo Operations
     1)  Route discovery
     2)  Implementation



Key	
  Issues	
     Accentuate	
      Cul0vate	
            Enhance	
            Financials	
  
Our	
  ACE	
  strategy	
  will	
  yield	
  
                                                              results	
  
                                              Remain	
  compe00ve	
  and	
  profitable	
  	
  	
  



                                                                                           How	
  focused	
  should	
  we	
  be	
  on	
  core	
  
    How	
  to	
  innovate	
  to	
  remain	
  compe00ve	
  	
  	
  
                                                                                                           business	
  




                                                 Cul0vate	
  our	
  brand	
  image	
  
Accentuate	
  our	
  premium	
                                                                            Enhance	
  our	
  core	
  business	
  	
  	
  
                                                  • 	
  	
  Maintain	
  the	
  image	
  of	
  
              service	
  	
                                                                                       • Divest	
  Tradewinds	
  	
  
                                                 Singapore	
  girl	
  but	
  focus	
  on	
  
• 	
  Increasing	
  business	
  only	
                                                                     • 	
  Build	
  cargo	
  opera0ons	
  
                                                  being	
  ar0culate	
  and	
  well-­‐
         flights	
  to	
  Europe	
  	
  	
                                                                                  business	
  	
  
                                                                informed	
  	
  


                                                        NPV	
  =	
  SGD	
  1	
  Billion	
  	
  
E	
  
        C	
  
A	
  




        THE	
  END	
  	
  
Middle	
  East	
  
                                         Middle	
  East	
  	
                     Europe	
                           China	
  


           Exis(ng	
                Emirates	
  and	
  Qatar	
  Airways	
  are	
  dominant	
  players.	
  Also	
  highly	
  
25%	
                                                   recognised	
  as	
  a	
  premium	
  airline	
  
           compe((on	
  	
  
           Government	
  
25%	
                               Not	
  an	
  issue	
  but	
  trade	
  rela0ons	
  not	
  as	
  good	
  as	
  with	
  Europe.	
  
           regula(on	
  	
  
           Poten(al	
  demand	
  
25%	
                                                    Insufficient	
  business	
  travel	
  demand	
  	
  

           Suitability	
  
25%	
                                                    Medium	
  haul	
  (e.g.	
  8	
  hours	
  to	
  Qatar)	
  

           Total	
  	
  
100%	
  
Europe	
  
                                      Middle	
  East	
  	
                      Europe	
                          China	
  


           Exis(ng	
  
25%	
                                      Compe00on	
  with	
  Bri0sh	
  Airways	
  and	
  Air	
  France	
  
           compe((on	
  	
  
           Government	
  
25%	
                               Friendly	
  rela0ons,	
  free	
  economy,	
  open-­‐skies	
  agreements	
  
           regula(on	
  	
  
           Poten(al	
  demand	
  
25%	
                                                          Significant	
  FDI	
  in	
  Singapore	
  

           Suitability	
  
25%	
                                                 Long	
  haul	
  (e.g.	
  13	
  hours	
  to	
  London)	
  

           Total	
  	
  
100%	
  
China	
  
                                         Middle	
  East	
  	
                    Europe	
                       China	
  


           Exis(ng	
                Strong	
  player:	
  China	
  Eastern	
  not	
  a	
  premium	
  service	
  provider.	
  	
  
25%	
                                    (3-­‐star	
  Skytrax	
  ra0ng	
  as	
  compared	
  to	
  SIA’s	
  5-­‐star)	
  
           compe((on	
  	
  
           Government	
  
25%	
                                                             Strong	
  government	
  control	
  
           regula(on	
  	
  
           Poten(al	
  demand	
  
25%	
                                Poten0al	
  trade	
  growth	
  (especially	
  with	
  growing	
  affluence)	
  

           Suitability	
  
25%	
                                           Short-­‐medium	
  haul	
  (e.g.	
  5	
  hours	
  to	
  Shanghai)	
  

           Total	
  	
  
100%	
  
Skytrax	
  ra0ngs	
  
        	
  Speaking	
  about	
  the	
  
exclusive	
  5-­‐Star	
  Airline	
  ranking,	
  Skytrax	
  CEO,	
  Mr	
  Edward	
  Plaisted	
  ....	
  "The	
  greatest	
  
aeribute	
  behind	
  5-­‐Star	
  status	
  is	
  an	
  airline's	
  ability	
  to	
  deliver	
  the	
  combina0on	
  of	
  
Product	
  and	
  Service.	
  A	
  great	
  product	
  standard	
  is	
  not	
  by	
  itself	
  the	
  key	
  to	
  a	
  5-­‐Star	
  
ranking,	
  and	
  we	
  are	
  equally	
  concerned	
  by	
  the	
  Quality	
  of	
  front-­‐line	
  service	
  that	
  an	
  
airline	
  provides.	
  We	
  are	
  focussed	
  on	
  recognising	
  airlines	
  whose	
  staff	
  deliver	
  a	
  true	
  
5-­‐Star	
  standard	
  of	
  service	
  delivery.	
  The	
  Star	
  Ranking	
  covers	
  both	
  Airport	
  and	
  
Onboard	
  services	
  ....	
  and	
  an	
  airline	
  mee0ng	
  a	
  5-­‐Star	
  level	
  onboard,	
  whilst	
  only	
  at	
  
say	
  a	
  3-­‐Star	
  standard	
  in	
  the	
  airport	
  environment,	
  will	
  not	
  be	
  eligible	
  for	
  the	
  5-­‐Star	
  
accolade.	
  	
  In	
  a	
  similar	
  manner,	
  there	
  may	
  be	
  an	
  airline	
  that	
  delivers	
  5-­‐Star	
  
standards	
  across	
  70-­‐80	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  product	
  analysis,	
  whilst	
  achieving	
  5-­‐Star	
  status	
  
for	
  90	
  per	
  cent	
  of	
  the	
  service	
  delivery	
  items,	
  and	
  this	
  will	
  be	
  classed	
  as	
  eligible	
  for	
  
the	
  global	
  5-­‐Star	
  accolade." 	
  	
  
Why	
  Europe?	
  
Stock of FDI in singapore by region/country
Region              1998           2003               2004               2005              2006               2007         2008


Asia              43,759            57.755.3          62.252.9           78,253.90         82,485.00          104,591.60   107,906.70


USA               22,810.70         37,162.60         41,019.50          40,574.40         38,325.00          51,550.80    51,801.60


Europe            49,619.80         103,936.10 120,505.70 139,987.40 174,034.90 197,976.80 193.525.0




                         Note:	
  
                         	
  Middle-­‐East	
  does	
  not	
  have	
  substan0al	
  FDI	
  in	
  Singapore;	
  	
  
                         classified	
  under	
  ‘other	
  countries’	
  
Where	
  in	
  Europe?	
  
Country          1998           2003           2004           2005           2006           2007           2008




France                  3766           5162           6349           7004           8091           10961          9243


Germany                 2105           6137           7279           8189           7592           9297           9564


Netherlands             9470           26902          31561          32142          48631          51419          49140


Switzerland             13021          16836          16444          22273          27114          27453          30468


United Kingdom          17599          38092          43924          49593          55264          62528          51744
LLC:	
  can’t	
  do	
  long	
  haul	
  
A	
  trend	
  from	
  the	
  mid-­‐2000s	
  was	
  the	
  forma0on	
  of	
  new	
  
low-­‐cost	
  carriers	
  exclusively	
  targe0ng	
  the	
  long-­‐haul	
  
business	
  market,	
  with	
  aircraz	
  configured	
  for	
  a	
  single	
  
class	
  of	
  service,	
  ini0ally	
  on	
  transatlan0c	
  rou0ngs.	
  
Probably	
  best	
  described	
  as	
  "fewer	
  frills"	
  rather	
  than	
  "no	
  
frills",	
  the	
  ini0al	
  entrants	
  in	
  this	
  market	
  u0lised	
  second-­‐
hand,	
  mid-­‐sized,	
  twin	
  jets	
  such	
  as	
  Boeing	
  757	
  and	
  
Boeing	
  767	
  in	
  an	
  aeempt	
  to	
  service	
  the	
  lucra0ve	
  
London-­‐US	
  Eastern	
  Seaboard	
  market:Eos	
  Airlines,	
  which	
  
ceased	
  opera0ng	
  on	
  27	
  April	
  2008[8]Maxjet,	
  which	
  has	
  
ceased	
  its	
  scheduled	
  business	
  flights,	
  but	
  is	
  planning	
  to	
  
restart	
  as	
  a	
  luxury	
  charter	
  carrier[9]Silverjet,	
  which	
  
ceased[10]	
  opera0ons	
  on	
  30	
  May	
  2008	
  
Business-­‐Only	
  (LA,	
  NY)	
  
Singapore	
  Airlines	
  redefines	
  long-­‐haul	
  air	
  travel	
  with	
  daily	
  all	
  Business	
  Class	
  service	
  to	
  
New	
  York	
  (Newark)	
  and	
  Los	
  Angeles.	
  The	
  A340-­‐500	
  is	
  fieed	
  with	
  100	
  of	
  the	
  Airline's	
  
new	
  award	
  winning	
  Business	
  Class	
  seats.	
  
Dest.       Fleet Core businesses                           Primary markets              Special service         Implication for
             (countries) size                                                                         factors                 SIA
Singapore    93 (38)     Append SIA Engineering, SIA Cargo, SilkAir      East Asia (28.9%) Europe
Airlines                 ix 3   (SIA's subsidiary airline focusing on    (21.8%) Americas (18.7%)
                                regional locations). And Tradewinds      South-West Pacific (18.3%)
                                Tours and Travels.                       West Asia and Africa (12.3%)
Air-France   245 (>100) 640     Passenger operations, cargo and          Europe (42% of revenue) Asia Premium economy'
                                aircraft repair and maintenance (+ 8     (17%)                        seats for Incheon-
                                subsidiaries)                                                         Paris (April 2010) as
                                                                                                      well as other
                                                                                                      destinations in Asia,
                                                                                                      Carribean and Indian
                                                                                                      Ocean
British      150 (75)    240      International and domestic air         Europe (72%) therefore       Innovative business-    migration from
Airways                           services for passengers, freight and   compete in European +        class seatbeds (2000)   SIA customers
                                  mail                                   transatlantic flight market
Emirates     100 (60)    137                                             East Asia and Australasia    A380 targeting India    In-flight
                                                                         (27.9%) Europe (27.3%)       (??) with special       entertainment
                                                                                                      Shower Spas and         system innovating
                                                                                                      Onboard Lounge.         and competing
                                                                                                                              with SIA
Qantas                   250                                                                          First of 50 Boeing
                                                                                                      787 Dreamliners in
                                                                                                      mid-2012. Launch of
                                                                                                      new in-flight
                                                                                                      entertainment system
China Eastern 80 intl/    200     Competes with SIA in Asian market China, Hong Kong and Japan
Airlines      regional            in areas of passenger services and (72%)
              routes, 330         cargo.
              domestic
              routes (110
              cities
Cathay                    120     North Asia, especially Hong Kong
Pacific                           and Mainland China

Low-cost     Budget carriers increased frequencies and added new destinations while SIA cut down on capacity and routes due to economic
carriers     downturn.
Price	
  Premium	
  




                    Short	
  Distance	
                                         Long	
  Haul	
  

              SHORT	
  DISTANCE	
  
              -­‐	
  Insufficient	
  demand	
  for	
  premium	
  service	
  	
  
              -­‐ 	
  Intense	
  compe00on	
  L(eadership	
   airlines)	
  
                                               Cost	
  
                                                        budget	
  
              -­‐ 	
  SilkAir:	
  regional	
  routes	
  
              	
  

Key	
  Issues	
               Accentuate	
      Cul0vate	
            Enhance	
            Implementa0on	
  
LONG	
  HAUL,	
  LOW	
  PRICE	
  
                                                    Price	
  Premium	
  
                    -­‐ 	
  Mismatch	
  with	
  premium	
  brand	
  image	
  
                    -­‐ 	
  Proven	
  not	
  to	
  work	
  	
  

                    	
  
                    Short	
  Distance	
                                           Long	
  Haul	
  




                                               Cost	
  Leadership	
  




Key	
  Issues	
               Accentuate	
       Cul0vate	
             Enhance	
            Implementa0on	
  
Price	
  Premium	
  




                    Short	
  Distance	
                                            Long	
  Haul	
  




                                                Cost	
  Leadership	
  




Key	
  Issues	
               Accentuate	
        Cul0vate	
             Enhance	
            Implementa0on	
  
•  Budget	
  Airlines	
  moving	
  upmarket	
  
           Increased	
                  AND	
  into	
  long	
  haul	
  flights	
  
          compe((on	
                •  AirAsia	
  Premium	
  X:	
  London,	
  Tehran,	
  
                                        Beijing	
  



           Scheduling	
              •  4	
  Airbus	
  classes	
  
           complexity	
              •  3	
  Boeing	
  classes	
  




Key	
  Issues	
     Accentuate	
            Cul0vate	
               Enhance	
     Implementa0on	
  
Backup	
  Slide:	
  What	
  SIA	
  Cargo	
  is	
  doing	
  


    Intensified	
  service	
  audit	
  programme	
  to	
  strengthen	
  opera(onal	
  
    efficiency	
  	
  
            • 	
  Overall	
  percentage	
  of	
  freight	
  “Flown	
  as	
  Booked”	
  and	
  
            percentage	
  of	
  “On-­‐0me	
  no0fica0on	
  for	
  Delivery”	
  of	
  shipments	
  
            have	
  exceeded	
  expecta0ons	
  and	
  surpassed	
  the	
  Cargo	
  2000	
  
            average	
  performance	
  index	
  
            	
  
    In	
  the	
  process	
  of	
  replacing	
  its	
  legacy	
  reserva(ons	
  system	
  with	
  a	
  	
  
    new	
  user-­‐friendly	
  system	
  
            • 	
  New	
  system	
  Reserva0ons	
  express	
  will	
  enable	
  the	
  company	
  to	
  
            adapt	
  func0onali0es	
  or	
  new	
  requirements	
  more	
  quickly	
  to	
  
            customer	
  needs	
  	
  
            	
  




Key	
  Issues	
             Accentuate           	
  	
     Cul0vate 	
  	
              Enhance	
           Financials	
  
Backup	
  Slide:	
  Why	
  Cargo	
  even	
  though	
  
                               loss	
  made	
  in	
  2009	
  and	
  2010?	
  	
  
Airfreight	
  industry	
  was	
  severely	
  impacted	
  by	
  economic	
  downturn	
  	
  
	
  
During	
  this	
  period,	
  SIA	
  Cargo	
  seized	
  opportuni0es	
  to	
  ra0onalise	
  
     freighter	
  network	
  to	
  align	
  capacity	
  more	
  closely	
  to	
  demand	
  in	
  
     response	
  to	
  global	
  economic	
  downturn	
  	
  
	
  
SIA	
  Cargo	
  has	
  improved	
  flexibility	
  in	
  the	
  deployment	
  of	
  its	
  resources,	
  
     while	
  maintaining	
  cost	
  discipline	
  à	
  will	
  be	
  able	
  to	
  beeer	
  deal	
  with	
  
     uncertain	
  business	
  environments	
  	
  




    Key	
  Issues	
        Accentuate      	
  	
     Cul0vate 	
  	
      Enhance	
             Financials	
  
Backup	
  Slide:	
  Why	
  La0n	
  America	
  	
  

	
  	
  	
  	
  Trade	
  paeerns	
  are	
  moving	
  away	
  from	
  the	
  old	
  North	
  
               models	
  of	
  across	
  the	
  North	
  Atlan0c	
  and	
  around	
  
               North	
  Asia	
  to	
  incorporate	
  increasingly	
  important	
  
               South	
  American	
  des0na0ons.	
  
	
  
	
   	
  The	
  route	
  SIA	
  set	
  up	
  is	
  Singapore-­‐Dhaka-­‐	
  Brussels-­‐
               Sao	
  Paolo-­‐Quito-­‐Bogota-­‐Bridgetown-­‐Brussels-­‐
               Sharjah	
  and	
  Singapore.	
  	
  
	
  
   Key	
  Issues	
     Accentuate   	
  	
     Cul0vate 	
  	
     Enhance	
     Financials	
  
Backup	
  sliede:	
  Why	
  not	
  acquisi0on	
  	
  	
  

-­‐ 	
  While	
  ozen	
  seen	
  as	
  the	
  best	
  managed	
  airlines	
  in	
  
        the	
  region,	
  SIA’s	
  overseas	
  forays	
  have	
  not	
  been	
  very	
  
        successful	
  	
  
-­‐  SIA’s	
  investement	
  in	
  Air	
  NZ	
  was	
  substan0atlly	
  
        diluted	
  to	
  just	
  4.5%	
  in	
  2001,	
  and	
  SIA	
  sold	
  out	
  its	
  
        remaining	
  stake	
  at	
  a	
  significant	
  loss	
  in	
  2004	
  	
  
-­‐  	
  Following	
  SIA’s	
  49%	
  acquisi0on	
  stake	
  in	
  March	
  
        2000,	
  Virgin	
  Atlan0c’s	
  earning	
  are	
  yet	
  to	
  reacha	
  	
  
        level	
  of	
  profitability	
  seen	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  acquisiton	
  	
  
	
  
   Key	
  Issues	
     Accentuate   	
  	
     Cul0vate 	
  	
     Enhance	
     Financials	
  
Partner	
  selec0on	
  	
  

•  Aligned	
  strategy	
  (in	
  terms	
  of	
  ambi0on	
  for	
  growth	
  
   and	
  profitability)	
  	
  
•  Brand	
  strength	
  and	
  good	
  corporate	
  reputa0on	
  	
  
•  Strong	
  distribu0on	
  and	
  customer	
  reach	
  	
  
•  Financial	
  strength	
  (ability	
  to	
  contribute	
  capital)	
  	
  
•  Management	
  control	
  	
  
•  Power	
  of	
  vito	
  


   Key	
  Issues	
     Accentuate   	
  	
      Cul0vate 	
  	
     Enhance	
     Financials	
  
WHY	
  NOT	
  SIA	
  Engineering	
  	
  

•  Revenue	
  contribu0on	
  in	
  2009-­‐2010	
  is	
  SGD	
  1	
  billion	
  	
  
•  Singapore,	
  Australia,	
  USA	
  (all	
  80.5%	
  stake	
  ),	
  Philippines	
  
   (52.5%)	
  
•  24	
  joint	
  ventures	
  and	
  subsidiaries	
  across	
  nine	
  countrie	
  
•  Strategic	
  importance:	
  maintaining	
  integrity	
  of	
  our	
  airplanes	
  	
  
•  Ability	
  to	
  compete:	
  HIGH-­‐	
  Awards	
  such	
  as	
  Asia-­‐Pacific	
  Airline	
  
   MRO	
  Opera0on	
  of	
  the	
  Year	
  by	
  Avia0on	
  Week	
  
•  Contributes	
  to	
  the	
  product	
  quality	
  that	
  we	
  are	
  known	
  for	
  	
  
•  However,	
  requires	
  significant	
  resources-­‐	
  deem	
  it	
  necessary	
  	
  



   Key	
  issues	
  	
     Accentuate	
         Cul0vate	
      Enhance	
      Implementa0on	
  
Alliance	
  or	
  equity	
  when	
  nego0a0ng	
  
                                                  barriers	
  	
  	
  
Alliance	
  
•  Cross-­‐border	
  regula0ons	
  restrict	
  it	
  to	
  minority	
  stakes	
  
     when	
  purchasing	
  equity	
  	
  
•  Unsuccessful	
  investments	
  in	
  Air	
  New	
  Zealand	
  and	
  
     Virgin	
  Atlan0c.	
  
•  Can	
  achieve	
  open	
  skies	
  agreement	
  with	
  alliance	
  
     economic	
  agreement	
  (eg:	
  India)	
  
•  No	
  role	
  to	
  play	
  in	
  the	
  strategy	
  forma0on	
  and	
  policy	
  
     decisions,	
  as	
  well	
  as	
  crea0ng	
  real	
  synergies	
  that	
  have	
  
     las0ng	
  value	
  	
  
	
  

   Key	
  issues	
  	
     Accentuate	
     Cul0vate	
     Enhance	
      Implementa0on	
  
Back	
  up	
  :	
  Passenger	
  load	
  factor	
  




Key	
  issues	
  	
     Accentuate	
       Cul0vate	
        Enhance	
     Implementa0on	
  
WACC	
  

Weighted Average Cost of Capital

WACC = KD (1-T) (D/V)+ KP (P/V) + KE (E/V)

I.       Cost of Debt (Kd):
                 Estimated All-In Cost for Company         8.00%
                 Effective Tax Rate (a)                   20.00%
                 *ASSUME NO DEBT
                          Kd = 8.0% * (1- 20.0%) =        6.40%

II.      Cost of Preferred (Kp):
                  Estimated All-In Cost for Company (b)   0.00%

III.     Cost of Equity (Ke):
                  Risk Free Rate (10-year T-Bond Yield)   1.98%       Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Government-Bond-Yield.aspx?Symbol=SGY
                  Target Beta (c)                           0.78      Source: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html
                  Market Return
                  Market Risk Premium (d)                 4.50%       Source: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html
                  Small Stock Premium (e)                 0.00%
                  Country Risk Premium                    0.00%
                  Ke                                      5.49%

IV.      Weighted Average Cost of Capital (K):
                D/V                                       5.95%       Total Assets                        22484.3
                P/V                                                   Total Debt                          1338.9
                E/V                                       94.05%      Total Equity                        21145.4




                  WACC                                    5.54%




       Key	
  issues	
  	
            Accentuate	
          Cul0vate	
                         Enhance	
                          Implementa0on	
  
ACE	
  Income	
  Statement	
  

SGD	
  Million	
                                                                                  2010	
                2011	
              2012	
              2013	
                2014
Accentuate	
                                                                                    440.92	
              460.76	
            483.79	
            510.40	
              541.03
Cul0vate	
                                                                                       55.11	
               57.59	
            120.95	
            127.60	
              202.89
Enhance	
                                                                                       114.41	
              133.40	
            154.41	
            178.15	
              189.90
TOTAL	
  REVENUES	
  FROM	
  ACE	
                                                              610.44	
              651.75	
            759.15	
            816.15	
              933.82
	
  	
                                                                                                                                                              	
  	
  
Addi0onal	
  Staff	
  Costs	
                                                                     93.47	
              100.00	
            107.42	
            115.89	
              123.02
Addi0onal	
  Fuel	
  Costs	
                                                                    195.35	
              209.01	
            224.51	
            242.22	
              257.13
	
  	
                                                                                                                                                              	
  	
  
TOTAL	
  EXTERNAL	
  EXPENSES	
                                                                 288.82	
              309.02	
            331.92	
            358.11	
              380.15
	
  	
                                                                                                                                                              	
  	
  
EBITDA	
                                                                                        321.62	
              342.74	
            427.23	
            458.04	
              553.67
Deprecia0on,	
  Amor0za0on	
  &	
  Impairment	
                                                   39.91	
               33.01	
             35.41	
             38.31	
              40.62
EBIT	
                                                                                          281.71	
              309.73	
            391.81	
            419.73	
              513.04

Taxes	
  (27.8%)	
                                                                        14.08551274	
         15.48627031	
       19.59070138	
       20.98666314	
          25.65204864
NET	
  PROFIT	
                                                                                 267.62	
              294.24	
            372.22	
            398.75	
              487.39
Plus:	
  Deprecia0on	
  &	
  Amor0sa0on	
                                                         39.91	
               33.01	
             35.41	
             38.31	
              40.62

Less:	
  (Increase)	
  in	
  Working	
  Capital	
                                                               6.596575806	
       17.14819248	
       9.101426115	
          18.78797704
CASH	
  FLOW	
                                                                                      308	
                 321	
               390	
                428	
              509



Current	
  Assets	
                                                                       314.5901171	
         335.8809691	
       391.2278095	
       420.6032191	
          481.2425644

Current	
  Liabili0es	
                                                                   217.1202011	
         231.8144773	
       270.0131252	
       290.2871087	
           332.138477

Net	
  Working	
  Capital	
                                                               97.46991598	
         104.0664918	
       121.2146843	
       130.3161104	
          149.1040874

Change	
  in	
  NWC	
                                                                                   0	
     6.596575806	
       17.14819248	
       9.101426115	
          18.78797704




              Key	
  issues	
  	
                     Accentuate	
         Cul0vate	
                           Enhance	
                          Implementa0on	
  
NVP	
  

Valuation Summary - Using Perpetuity Growth Rate for Terminal Value

MillionnSGD
                                                                                                                           Projected
Fiscal Year Ended                                                                                             2010              2011               2012             2013              2014
	
  	
                                                                                                                                                        	
  	
  
NET	
  PROFIT	
                                                                                                 267.62	
       294.24	
   372.22	
      398.75	
        487.39	
  
                                                                                                                           33.0103432 35.4121828                    40.6240642
Plus:	
  Deprecia0on	
  &	
  Amor0sa0on	
                                                                  39.90898446	
            4	
        1	
  38.3078535	
             2	
  
                                                                                                                           6.59657580 17.1481924 9.10142611 18.7879770
Less:	
  (Increase)	
  in	
  Working	
  Capital	
                                                                    0	
            6	
        8	
           5	
             4	
  
	
  	
                                                                                                                                                        	
  	
  
    Cash Flow                                                                                                        $308             $321               $390          $428              $509
	
  	
                                                                                                                                                        	
  	
  
                                                                                                                           0.95941468 0.92047653 0.88311870 0.84727705
	
  	
                                                Discount	
  factor	
  @	
  0.042302161142664	
       0.959414685	
            5	
        9	
           9	
             8	
  
                                                                                                                           0.94747044 0.89770025                    0.80586574
	
  	
                                                Discount	
  factor	
  @	
  0.0554418887846186	
      0.947470449	
            9	
        1	
  0.85054446	
             1	
  
                                                                                                                           0.93581995 0.87575898 0.81955273 0.76695380
	
  	
                                                Discount	
  factor	
  @	
  0.0685816164265732	
      0.935819955	
            5	
        8	
           6	
             5	
  
	
  	
                                                Terminal	
  Growth	
                                       1.50%	
                                      	
  	
  
	
  	
                                                                                                                                                        	
  	
  
Discount Rate                                                                                                4.23%                   5.54%             6.86%
Discounted	
  Cash	
  Flows	
                         	
  	
            	
  	
                             $1,784.00	
       $1,736.24	
   $1,690.86	
   	
  	
            	
  	
  
Terminal	
  Value	
                                                                                       $15,802.95	
      $10,147.08	
   $7,288.92	
                     	
  	
  
NPV                                                                                                            $17,586.94     $11,883.32          $8,979.78




Key	
  issues	
  	
                          Accentuate	
                                Cul0vate	
                           Enhance	
                             Implementa0on	
  
Key	
  issues	
  	
     Accentuate	
     Cul0vate	
     Enhance	
     Implementa0on	
  

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Singapore Airlines Pictures Focus Innovation

  • 1. Pictures   Singapore Airlines Exalt  Consulting   Grace  Lin  |  Amelia  Lee  |  Peh  Che  Min  |  Kwek  Hsien  Yao  
  • 2. Agenda     Situa(onal  Analysis     Accentuate       Cul(vate   Enhance       Financials  and  milestone     Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 3. Core  business  is  in  air  transport     2009-­‐2010  Revenue     2005-­‐2006  Revenue     2%   1%   Airline  opera0ons     2%   7%   16%   Airport  terminal  and   food  opera0ons     7%   Engineering  service     4%   Cargo  opera0ons     89%   72%   Others     Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 4. Core  business  is  in  air  transport     2009-­‐2010  Revenue     2005-­‐2006  Revenue     2%   1%   Airline  opera0ons     2%   7%   Airline  opera0ons  accounts  for  bulk  of  revenue     and   16%   Airport  terminal   food  opera0ons     Cargo  opera0ons  grew  7%   significantly  over  Engineering  service     5  years     4%   Cargo  opera0ons     89%   72%   Others     Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 5. Compe00ve  advantage  lies  in  a  duo  strategy  of   differen0a0on  and  cost   Strong  focus  on  innova0on       Emphasis  on  core  business   DIfferentiation Cost effectiveness Service  excellence   Cost  management   Product  quality   Flexibility  in  downturn Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 6. Compe00ve  advantage  lies  in  a  duo  strategy  of   differen0a0on  and  cost   Strong  focus  on  innova0on       Emphasis  on  core  business   Con0nuously  reinvent  and  maintain  focus  on  core  business   DIfferentiation   Cost effectiveness Service  excellence   Cost  management   Product  quality   Flexibility  in  downturn Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 7. Industry  trends  drive  need  for  innova0on   and  new  areas  for  growth     Stronger  compe((on     Full  airline  service     Leisure  travel  is  cyclical  and  vola0le     Expansion     Quality  service  and   Industry  facing  overcapacity     product       Low  cost  carrier     Long  haul  flights   Vulnerable  to  external  shocks   Full  service     Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 8. Industry  trends  and  nature  drive  need  for   innova0on  and  flexibility   Stronger  compe((on     Full  airline  service     Cyclical  and  vola0le     Expansion     Innovate  and  differen0ate  to  keep  compe00ve  edge   Remain  flexible  to  respond  to  external  condi0ons     Quality  service  and   Overcapacity     product         Low  cost  carrier     Long  haul  flights   Vulnerability  to  external  shocks       Full  service     Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 9. Need  to  remain  compe00ve  and  profitable   Where  we  are     Where  we  want  to  be     •  High  end,  premium  full   •  Remain  compe00ve  and   service  carrier   profitability  in  the  next  10   •  Known  for  service  and   years     quality  products     •  Con0nue  to  be  the  brand  of   •  Biggest  airline  by  market   choice  for  air  transport     capitalisa0on     Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 10. Need  to  remain  compe00ve  and  profitable   Where  we  are     Where  we  want  to  be     •  High  end,  premium  full   •  Remain  compe00ve  and   service  carrier   profitability  in  the  next  10   •  Known  for  service  and   Key  Issues:       years   quality  products     to  innovate  to  • emain  compe00ve?  brand  of   1.  How   r Con0nue  to  be  the     2.  How  much  focus  should  be  choice  fon  aore  business?   •  Biggest  airline  by  market   placed   or  c ir  transport     capitalisa0on     Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 11. Innova0on  and  focus  are  the  key   issues     Key  Issue     Concerns       •   Product:  Reduce  or  maintain   number  of  service  classes;   How  to  innovate  to  remain   scheduling  complexity     compe00ve?   •   Brand:  Relevance  of  Singapore   girl     •   Narrow  or  balanced  porolio:     How  much  focus  should  be   balance  flexibility  and   placed  on  core  business  ?   diversifica0on           Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 12. Our  ACE  strategy     E   C   A   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 13. Increased   Scheduling   compe00on   Complexity   Business-­‐only  Flights  to     Financial  Hubs  in  Europe     Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 14. Increased   Scheduling   compe00on   Complexity   ACCENTUATE     Premium  Quality   Business-­‐only  Flights  to     Financial  Hubs  in  Europe     Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 15. Why  Europe?   Middle  East     Europe   China   Exis(ng   25%   compe((on     Government   25%   regula(on     Poten(al  demand   25%   Suitability   25%   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 16. Why  Europe?   Brand  recogni0on   Business  between   in  Europe   Asia  and  Europe   Why  business-­‐only?   Success  in  US   SIA  appeal  to   business-­‐only   premium  travellers   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 17. Why  Europe?   Brand  recogni0on   Business  between   in  Europe   Asia  and  Europe   •  Established  network   and  sustainable  demand   •  21.8%  of  SIA  revenue   •  OAG  Airline  Industry   Awards  based  in  UK  (6-­‐ 0me  winner)   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 18. Why  Europe?   Brand  recogni0on   Business  between   in  Europe   Asia  and  Europe   250,000.00   200,000.00   Europe   150,000.00   100,000.00   USA   50,000.00   Asia   0.00   1998   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   Stock  of  FDI  in  Singapore  (S$millions)   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 19. Why  business-­‐only?   Success  in  US   SIA  appeal  to   business-­‐only   premium  travellers   A340-­‐500  is  re-­‐fieed   with  business  seats            “Our  perseverance  through  the  early  part  of  the   downturn  un6l  mid-­‐2009  has  been  vindicated  by  the   fact  that  non-­‐stop  to  New  York  has  been  running   near-­‐full  capacity  these  last  few  months.”   -­‐  CEO  Mr.  Chew  Choon  Seng   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 20. Why  business-­‐only?   Success  in  US   SIA  appeal  to  premium   business-­‐only   travellers   •   Business  travel  is  less  affected  by   business  cycles     •   Less  price  sensi(ve   •   40%  of  revenue  comes  from   premium  travellers     Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 21. Why  business-­‐only?   Success  in  US   SIA  appeal  to  premium   business-­‐only   travellers   Reduce   Reduce   scheduling   vulnerability  to   •   Business  travel  is  less  affected  by   complexity   business  cycles   business  cycles     Increased   sensi(ve   •   Less  price   differen(a(on   •   40%  of  revenue  comes  from   premium  travellers     Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 22. Where  in  Europe   70000   60000   50000   France   40000   Germany   Netherlands   30000   Switzerland   20000   United  Kingdom   10000   0   1998   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   1)  FRANCE,  Paris   2)  GERMANY,  Amsterdam   3)  SWITZERLAND,  Zurich   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 23. The  Singapore  Girl   • Consistent  brand  since  1972   • Icon  of  Singapore  Airlines   • Symbol  of  warmth  and   hospitality   A  Na0onal  Icon  that  is  Interna0onally  Recognised   Key  Issues   Accentuate     Cul0vate     Enhance   Financials  
  • 24. The  Singapore  Girl   Increased  compe00on     “Sexist”  cri0cism:   -­‐ Regional,  global   stereotype  of  Oriental  girl   -­‐   Premium,  budget   Consistent  brand  icon  for   Modern,  out-­‐spoken  girl   premium  service   image  publicised   Key  Issues   Accentuate     Cul0vate     Enhance   Financials  
  • 25. The  Singapore  Girl   Increased  compe00on     “Sexist”  cri0cism:   -­‐ Regional,  global   stereotype  of  Oriental  girl   -­‐   Premium,  budget   Enhance  ‘modernity’  and   ‘professionalism’  of  the   Singapore  Girl   Consistent  brand  icon  for   Modern,  out-­‐spoken  girl   premium  service   image  publicised   Key  Issues   Accentuate     Cul0vate     Enhance   Financials  
  • 26. The  Singapore  Girl   Subservient   Well-­‐informed     and  ar0culate   Hospitable   Warm   Friendly   Key  Issues   Accentuate     Cul0vate     Enhance   Financials  
  • 27. The  Singapore  Girl   Subservient   Well-­‐informed     and  ar0culate   Hospitable   Warm   Friendly   INTELLIGENT   ARTICULATE   WELL-­‐INFORMED   Key  Issues   Accentuate     Cul0vate     Enhance   Financials  
  • 28. The  Singapore  Girl   Subservient   Well-­‐informed     and  ar0culate   Write  columns   Host  “Travel  and  Living”  shows   Increased  recogni0on  for  the  news  companies   Key  Issues   Accentuate     Cul0vate     Enhance   Financials  
  • 29. The  Singapore  Girl   Subservient   Well-­‐informed     and  ar0culate   First:  regional.   Publicize  this  on  an  interna(onal  scale.   Write  columns   Host  “Travel  and  Living”  shows   Move  global.     Increased  recogni0on  for  the  news  companies   Key  Issues   Accentuate     Cul0vate     Enhance   Financials  
  • 30. Enhance-­‐  Divest  Tradewinds  to  focus  on   core  business   1 2 Divest     Build     35%   Strategic  importance     25%   Ability  to  compete     25%   Required  resources   Revenue  contribu0on     20%   100%   Total     Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 31. Divest  to  a  local  tour  agency     1 2 Divest     Build     •   9  strategic  branches  in  Singapore   •   Cover  corporate  and  free  and  easy  tours     • Progressively  growing  and  expanding     Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 32. SIA  Cargo   1 2 Divest     Build     SIA  Cargo  contributes  17%  to   SIA  GROUP   top  line  of  SIA     Currently  flies  to  70  ci(es  in  36   Passenger   countries,  with  more  than  600   Cargo   flights  a  week     Engineering   3rd  largest  Cargo  carrier  in  the   Other   world       Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 33. Why  Focus  on  Cargo?   1 2 ASIAN  EXPORT  ECONOMY  EXPECTED   Divest     Build     TO  BE  ROBUST     •   New  products  launched  with  rebound  in   economy     •   More  Just-­‐In-­‐Time  (JIT)  Inventory   management     •   Rising  trend  of  China’s  PMI  export  orders       CONSOLIDATION  OF  CARGO  SECTOR   IN  JAPAN  AND  CHINA   •   Pose  as  a  strong  poten0al  compe0tor     •   Greater  need  to  build  up  SIA  Cargo  to   maintain  compe00ve  edge     Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 34. Why  Focus  On  Cargo?   1 2 Divest     Build     GLOBAL  INCREASE  IN  CARGO   FREIGHT  TONNES     •   40%  increase  in  Freight  tonnes   from  28.8  mil  to  40.3  mil  in  the  last   decade   •   Falling  trend  in  US  Inventory/Sales   Ra0o  over  past  decade     US  Inventory/  Sales  Ra(o   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 35. How  To  Enhance  SIA  Cargo?   1 2 Divest     Build     Improve  opera(onal  efficiency   and  exis(ng  technology   Seek  growth  opportuni(es  in   emerging  markets       Exercise  flexibility  in   deployment  of  resources       Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 36. Seeking  Growth  Opportuni0es:  Mexico   City     1 2 Divest     Build     Second  largest  economy  in  La(n   America     Largely  Export-­‐Oriented  country       SGD  24  229  mil  &  SGD  13  133  mil   of  imports  and  exports  to   Singapore  from  La(n  America  in   2009     SIA  Cargo  has  not  developed  its   routes  to  La(n  America        Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 37. Financial  Considera0ons   Revenues   2009   2014   Highlights   From   •  Passenger  Airlines   Economy   46%   45%   •  4%  –  6%  CAGR   •  Accentuate:  Business  Class   Passengers  Increase   Premium   30%   34%   •  6%  -­‐  8%   •  Cul0vate     •  0.5%  -­‐  1.5%   Cargo   19%   18%   •  Enhance:  Cargo  Traffic   Increase   Others   5%   3%   •  5%  -­‐  6.5%   •  5  Year  Forecast   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 38. Financial  Performance   CASH  FLOW  PROJECTION   600   500   400   SGD  Million   300   200   100   0   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 39. Financial  Performance   REVENUE  PROJECTION   20,000   18,000   934   16,000   14,000   SGD  Million   12,000   10,000   8,000   6,000   4,000   2,000   0   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   CURRENT  OPERATIONS   "ACE"   4.2%   5.2%   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 40. NPV  Analysis   2000   Sensi(vity  Analysis   1950   1909     1900   1875     1850   1823   1800   1783     SGD  Million   1750   With  Terminal   SGD  $1,736   Value:   WACC  =  5.54%   1700   Million   SGD  $11,883   1650   1690   1649   Million   1600   1597   1550     1690   1500   Revenue  Drivers  (+-­‐  5%)   General  Expenses  (+-­‐5%)   Fuel  Expenses  (+-­‐10%)   NPV  (+-­‐20%)   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 41. Milestones   2010 2011 2011 2013 2014 2015 Accentuate 1) Airplane Modification 2) Routes (Paris, Amsterdam, Zurich) Cultivate 1) Marketing Campaigns Enhance 1)  Divest Trade Winds •  Valuate, finding partner Firm •  Sell share 2)  Cargo Operations 1)  Route discovery 2)  Implementation Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 42. Milestones   2010 2011 2011 2013 2014 2015 Accentuate 1) Airplane Modification 2) Routes (Paris, Amsterdam, Zurich) Cultivate 1) Marketing Campaigns Enhance 1)  Divest Trade Winds •  Valuate, finding partner Firm •  Sell share 2)  Cargo Operations 1)  Route discovery 2)  Implementation Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 43. Milestones   2010 2011 2011 2013 2014 2015 Accentuate 1) Airplane Modification 2) Routes (Paris, Amsterdam, Zurich) Cultivate 1) Marketing Campaigns Enhance 1)  Divest Trade Winds •  Valuate, finding partner Firm •  Sell share 2)  Cargo Operations 1)  Route discovery 2)  Implementation Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Financials  
  • 44. Our  ACE  strategy  will  yield   results   Remain  compe00ve  and  profitable       How  focused  should  we  be  on  core   How  to  innovate  to  remain  compe00ve       business   Cul0vate  our  brand  image   Accentuate  our  premium   Enhance  our  core  business       •     Maintain  the  image  of   service     • Divest  Tradewinds     Singapore  girl  but  focus  on   •   Increasing  business  only   •   Build  cargo  opera0ons   being  ar0culate  and  well-­‐ flights  to  Europe       business     informed     NPV  =  SGD  1  Billion    
  • 45. E   C   A   THE  END    
  • 46. Middle  East   Middle  East     Europe   China   Exis(ng   Emirates  and  Qatar  Airways  are  dominant  players.  Also  highly   25%   recognised  as  a  premium  airline   compe((on     Government   25%   Not  an  issue  but  trade  rela0ons  not  as  good  as  with  Europe.   regula(on     Poten(al  demand   25%   Insufficient  business  travel  demand     Suitability   25%   Medium  haul  (e.g.  8  hours  to  Qatar)   Total     100%  
  • 47. Europe   Middle  East     Europe   China   Exis(ng   25%   Compe00on  with  Bri0sh  Airways  and  Air  France   compe((on     Government   25%   Friendly  rela0ons,  free  economy,  open-­‐skies  agreements   regula(on     Poten(al  demand   25%   Significant  FDI  in  Singapore   Suitability   25%   Long  haul  (e.g.  13  hours  to  London)   Total     100%  
  • 48. China   Middle  East     Europe   China   Exis(ng   Strong  player:  China  Eastern  not  a  premium  service  provider.     25%   (3-­‐star  Skytrax  ra0ng  as  compared  to  SIA’s  5-­‐star)   compe((on     Government   25%   Strong  government  control   regula(on     Poten(al  demand   25%   Poten0al  trade  growth  (especially  with  growing  affluence)   Suitability   25%   Short-­‐medium  haul  (e.g.  5  hours  to  Shanghai)   Total     100%  
  • 49. Skytrax  ra0ngs    Speaking  about  the   exclusive  5-­‐Star  Airline  ranking,  Skytrax  CEO,  Mr  Edward  Plaisted  ....  "The  greatest   aeribute  behind  5-­‐Star  status  is  an  airline's  ability  to  deliver  the  combina0on  of   Product  and  Service.  A  great  product  standard  is  not  by  itself  the  key  to  a  5-­‐Star   ranking,  and  we  are  equally  concerned  by  the  Quality  of  front-­‐line  service  that  an   airline  provides.  We  are  focussed  on  recognising  airlines  whose  staff  deliver  a  true   5-­‐Star  standard  of  service  delivery.  The  Star  Ranking  covers  both  Airport  and   Onboard  services  ....  and  an  airline  mee0ng  a  5-­‐Star  level  onboard,  whilst  only  at   say  a  3-­‐Star  standard  in  the  airport  environment,  will  not  be  eligible  for  the  5-­‐Star   accolade.    In  a  similar  manner,  there  may  be  an  airline  that  delivers  5-­‐Star   standards  across  70-­‐80  per  cent  of  product  analysis,  whilst  achieving  5-­‐Star  status   for  90  per  cent  of  the  service  delivery  items,  and  this  will  be  classed  as  eligible  for   the  global  5-­‐Star  accolade."    
  • 50. Why  Europe?   Stock of FDI in singapore by region/country Region 1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Asia 43,759 57.755.3 62.252.9 78,253.90 82,485.00 104,591.60 107,906.70 USA 22,810.70 37,162.60 41,019.50 40,574.40 38,325.00 51,550.80 51,801.60 Europe 49,619.80 103,936.10 120,505.70 139,987.40 174,034.90 197,976.80 193.525.0 Note:    Middle-­‐East  does  not  have  substan0al  FDI  in  Singapore;     classified  under  ‘other  countries’  
  • 51. Where  in  Europe?   Country 1998 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 France 3766 5162 6349 7004 8091 10961 9243 Germany 2105 6137 7279 8189 7592 9297 9564 Netherlands 9470 26902 31561 32142 48631 51419 49140 Switzerland 13021 16836 16444 22273 27114 27453 30468 United Kingdom 17599 38092 43924 49593 55264 62528 51744
  • 52. LLC:  can’t  do  long  haul   A  trend  from  the  mid-­‐2000s  was  the  forma0on  of  new   low-­‐cost  carriers  exclusively  targe0ng  the  long-­‐haul   business  market,  with  aircraz  configured  for  a  single   class  of  service,  ini0ally  on  transatlan0c  rou0ngs.   Probably  best  described  as  "fewer  frills"  rather  than  "no   frills",  the  ini0al  entrants  in  this  market  u0lised  second-­‐ hand,  mid-­‐sized,  twin  jets  such  as  Boeing  757  and   Boeing  767  in  an  aeempt  to  service  the  lucra0ve   London-­‐US  Eastern  Seaboard  market:Eos  Airlines,  which   ceased  opera0ng  on  27  April  2008[8]Maxjet,  which  has   ceased  its  scheduled  business  flights,  but  is  planning  to   restart  as  a  luxury  charter  carrier[9]Silverjet,  which   ceased[10]  opera0ons  on  30  May  2008  
  • 53. Business-­‐Only  (LA,  NY)   Singapore  Airlines  redefines  long-­‐haul  air  travel  with  daily  all  Business  Class  service  to   New  York  (Newark)  and  Los  Angeles.  The  A340-­‐500  is  fieed  with  100  of  the  Airline's   new  award  winning  Business  Class  seats.  
  • 54. Dest. Fleet Core businesses Primary markets Special service Implication for (countries) size factors SIA Singapore 93 (38) Append SIA Engineering, SIA Cargo, SilkAir East Asia (28.9%) Europe Airlines ix 3 (SIA's subsidiary airline focusing on (21.8%) Americas (18.7%) regional locations). And Tradewinds South-West Pacific (18.3%) Tours and Travels. West Asia and Africa (12.3%) Air-France 245 (>100) 640 Passenger operations, cargo and Europe (42% of revenue) Asia Premium economy' aircraft repair and maintenance (+ 8 (17%) seats for Incheon- subsidiaries) Paris (April 2010) as well as other destinations in Asia, Carribean and Indian Ocean British 150 (75) 240 International and domestic air Europe (72%) therefore Innovative business- migration from Airways services for passengers, freight and compete in European + class seatbeds (2000) SIA customers mail transatlantic flight market Emirates 100 (60) 137 East Asia and Australasia A380 targeting India In-flight (27.9%) Europe (27.3%) (??) with special entertainment Shower Spas and system innovating Onboard Lounge. and competing with SIA Qantas 250 First of 50 Boeing 787 Dreamliners in mid-2012. Launch of new in-flight entertainment system China Eastern 80 intl/ 200 Competes with SIA in Asian market China, Hong Kong and Japan Airlines regional in areas of passenger services and (72%) routes, 330 cargo. domestic routes (110 cities Cathay 120 North Asia, especially Hong Kong Pacific and Mainland China Low-cost Budget carriers increased frequencies and added new destinations while SIA cut down on capacity and routes due to economic carriers downturn.
  • 55. Price  Premium   Short  Distance   Long  Haul   SHORT  DISTANCE   -­‐  Insufficient  demand  for  premium  service     -­‐   Intense  compe00on  L(eadership   airlines)   Cost   budget   -­‐   SilkAir:  regional  routes     Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 56. LONG  HAUL,  LOW  PRICE   Price  Premium   -­‐   Mismatch  with  premium  brand  image   -­‐   Proven  not  to  work       Short  Distance   Long  Haul   Cost  Leadership   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 57. Price  Premium   Short  Distance   Long  Haul   Cost  Leadership   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 58. •  Budget  Airlines  moving  upmarket   Increased   AND  into  long  haul  flights   compe((on   •  AirAsia  Premium  X:  London,  Tehran,   Beijing   Scheduling   •  4  Airbus  classes   complexity   •  3  Boeing  classes   Key  Issues   Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 59. Backup  Slide:  What  SIA  Cargo  is  doing   Intensified  service  audit  programme  to  strengthen  opera(onal   efficiency     •   Overall  percentage  of  freight  “Flown  as  Booked”  and   percentage  of  “On-­‐0me  no0fica0on  for  Delivery”  of  shipments   have  exceeded  expecta0ons  and  surpassed  the  Cargo  2000   average  performance  index     In  the  process  of  replacing  its  legacy  reserva(ons  system  with  a     new  user-­‐friendly  system   •   New  system  Reserva0ons  express  will  enable  the  company  to   adapt  func0onali0es  or  new  requirements  more  quickly  to   customer  needs       Key  Issues   Accentuate     Cul0vate     Enhance   Financials  
  • 60. Backup  Slide:  Why  Cargo  even  though   loss  made  in  2009  and  2010?     Airfreight  industry  was  severely  impacted  by  economic  downturn       During  this  period,  SIA  Cargo  seized  opportuni0es  to  ra0onalise   freighter  network  to  align  capacity  more  closely  to  demand  in   response  to  global  economic  downturn       SIA  Cargo  has  improved  flexibility  in  the  deployment  of  its  resources,   while  maintaining  cost  discipline  à  will  be  able  to  beeer  deal  with   uncertain  business  environments     Key  Issues   Accentuate     Cul0vate     Enhance   Financials  
  • 61. Backup  Slide:  Why  La0n  America            Trade  paeerns  are  moving  away  from  the  old  North   models  of  across  the  North  Atlan0c  and  around   North  Asia  to  incorporate  increasingly  important   South  American  des0na0ons.        The  route  SIA  set  up  is  Singapore-­‐Dhaka-­‐  Brussels-­‐ Sao  Paolo-­‐Quito-­‐Bogota-­‐Bridgetown-­‐Brussels-­‐ Sharjah  and  Singapore.       Key  Issues   Accentuate     Cul0vate     Enhance   Financials  
  • 62. Backup  sliede:  Why  not  acquisi0on       -­‐  While  ozen  seen  as  the  best  managed  airlines  in   the  region,  SIA’s  overseas  forays  have  not  been  very   successful     -­‐  SIA’s  investement  in  Air  NZ  was  substan0atlly   diluted  to  just  4.5%  in  2001,  and  SIA  sold  out  its   remaining  stake  at  a  significant  loss  in  2004     -­‐   Following  SIA’s  49%  acquisi0on  stake  in  March   2000,  Virgin  Atlan0c’s  earning  are  yet  to  reacha     level  of  profitability  seen  prior  to  the  acquisiton       Key  Issues   Accentuate     Cul0vate     Enhance   Financials  
  • 63. Partner  selec0on     •  Aligned  strategy  (in  terms  of  ambi0on  for  growth   and  profitability)     •  Brand  strength  and  good  corporate  reputa0on     •  Strong  distribu0on  and  customer  reach     •  Financial  strength  (ability  to  contribute  capital)     •  Management  control     •  Power  of  vito   Key  Issues   Accentuate     Cul0vate     Enhance   Financials  
  • 64. WHY  NOT  SIA  Engineering     •  Revenue  contribu0on  in  2009-­‐2010  is  SGD  1  billion     •  Singapore,  Australia,  USA  (all  80.5%  stake  ),  Philippines   (52.5%)   •  24  joint  ventures  and  subsidiaries  across  nine  countrie   •  Strategic  importance:  maintaining  integrity  of  our  airplanes     •  Ability  to  compete:  HIGH-­‐  Awards  such  as  Asia-­‐Pacific  Airline   MRO  Opera0on  of  the  Year  by  Avia0on  Week   •  Contributes  to  the  product  quality  that  we  are  known  for     •  However,  requires  significant  resources-­‐  deem  it  necessary     Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 65. Alliance  or  equity  when  nego0a0ng   barriers       Alliance   •  Cross-­‐border  regula0ons  restrict  it  to  minority  stakes   when  purchasing  equity     •  Unsuccessful  investments  in  Air  New  Zealand  and   Virgin  Atlan0c.   •  Can  achieve  open  skies  agreement  with  alliance   economic  agreement  (eg:  India)   •  No  role  to  play  in  the  strategy  forma0on  and  policy   decisions,  as  well  as  crea0ng  real  synergies  that  have   las0ng  value       Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 66. Back  up  :  Passenger  load  factor   Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 67. WACC   Weighted Average Cost of Capital WACC = KD (1-T) (D/V)+ KP (P/V) + KE (E/V) I. Cost of Debt (Kd): Estimated All-In Cost for Company 8.00% Effective Tax Rate (a) 20.00% *ASSUME NO DEBT Kd = 8.0% * (1- 20.0%) = 6.40% II. Cost of Preferred (Kp): Estimated All-In Cost for Company (b) 0.00% III. Cost of Equity (Ke): Risk Free Rate (10-year T-Bond Yield) 1.98% Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Government-Bond-Yield.aspx?Symbol=SGY Target Beta (c) 0.78 Source: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html Market Return Market Risk Premium (d) 4.50% Source: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html Small Stock Premium (e) 0.00% Country Risk Premium 0.00% Ke 5.49% IV. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (K): D/V 5.95% Total Assets 22484.3 P/V Total Debt 1338.9 E/V 94.05% Total Equity 21145.4 WACC 5.54% Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 68. ACE  Income  Statement   SGD  Million   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014 Accentuate   440.92   460.76   483.79   510.40   541.03 Cul0vate   55.11   57.59   120.95   127.60   202.89 Enhance   114.41   133.40   154.41   178.15   189.90 TOTAL  REVENUES  FROM  ACE   610.44   651.75   759.15   816.15   933.82         Addi0onal  Staff  Costs   93.47   100.00   107.42   115.89   123.02 Addi0onal  Fuel  Costs   195.35   209.01   224.51   242.22   257.13         TOTAL  EXTERNAL  EXPENSES   288.82   309.02   331.92   358.11   380.15         EBITDA   321.62   342.74   427.23   458.04   553.67 Deprecia0on,  Amor0za0on  &  Impairment   39.91   33.01   35.41   38.31   40.62 EBIT   281.71   309.73   391.81   419.73   513.04 Taxes  (27.8%)   14.08551274   15.48627031   19.59070138   20.98666314   25.65204864 NET  PROFIT   267.62   294.24   372.22   398.75   487.39 Plus:  Deprecia0on  &  Amor0sa0on   39.91   33.01   35.41   38.31   40.62 Less:  (Increase)  in  Working  Capital   6.596575806   17.14819248   9.101426115   18.78797704 CASH  FLOW   308   321   390   428   509 Current  Assets   314.5901171   335.8809691   391.2278095   420.6032191   481.2425644 Current  Liabili0es   217.1202011   231.8144773   270.0131252   290.2871087   332.138477 Net  Working  Capital   97.46991598   104.0664918   121.2146843   130.3161104   149.1040874 Change  in  NWC   0   6.596575806   17.14819248   9.101426115   18.78797704 Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 69. NVP   Valuation Summary - Using Perpetuity Growth Rate for Terminal Value MillionnSGD Projected Fiscal Year Ended 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014         NET  PROFIT   267.62   294.24   372.22   398.75   487.39   33.0103432 35.4121828 40.6240642 Plus:  Deprecia0on  &  Amor0sa0on   39.90898446   4   1  38.3078535   2   6.59657580 17.1481924 9.10142611 18.7879770 Less:  (Increase)  in  Working  Capital   0   6   8   5   4           Cash Flow $308 $321 $390 $428 $509         0.95941468 0.92047653 0.88311870 0.84727705     Discount  factor  @  0.042302161142664   0.959414685   5   9   9   8   0.94747044 0.89770025 0.80586574     Discount  factor  @  0.0554418887846186   0.947470449   9   1  0.85054446   1   0.93581995 0.87575898 0.81955273 0.76695380     Discount  factor  @  0.0685816164265732   0.935819955   5   8   6   5       Terminal  Growth   1.50%               Discount Rate 4.23% 5.54% 6.86% Discounted  Cash  Flows           $1,784.00   $1,736.24   $1,690.86           Terminal  Value   $15,802.95   $10,147.08   $7,288.92       NPV $17,586.94 $11,883.32 $8,979.78 Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on  
  • 70. Key  issues     Accentuate   Cul0vate   Enhance   Implementa0on