The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
This document discusses the impacts of climate change on Indonesian agriculture and food security. It provides context on Indonesia's development and agriculture sector, then analyzes how climate change may negatively affect agricultural production and food availability based on climate modeling scenarios. The document outlines Indonesia's national policies around climate change mitigation and adaptation for the agriculture sector. These include mainstreaming climate change into development planning, establishing a climate change roadmap, and sectoral plans to reduce emissions and increase resilience of food production.
A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/
Record global harvests in 2013/14 have pushed down prices for cereals like maize and wheat. However, uncertainty in Ukraine has led to temporary price rises for these crops. While prices have been high and volatile since 2008, it now seems the markets may be reaching a new equilibrium as major drivers of change stabilize. Production responses to high prices, especially in developing countries, have accelerated world supply. If stability continues, proposals for radical market interventions may not be needed.
1) The document analyzes data from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on trends in global food security and agriculture between 1990-2018, finding that while world population grew significantly, agricultural production increased through different means across regions.
2) Key trends included emerging economies like China, Brazil, and India playing a larger role in lifting world averages, while African agriculture grew more slowly. Total agricultural emissions increased globally as production rose, though the EU produced more with less emissions.
3) Food balances showed increasing grain deficits in Africa and Asia being met by surpluses in the US and Brazil, while China's growing soybean deficit was met by increased US and Brazilian surpluses. Beef production shifted
USDA made relatively small adjustments in its February supply and demand estimates for corn and soybeans that did not differ significantly from analysts' expectations. However, grain markets reacted negatively due to concerns over tight supplies. Key points include:
- US corn ending stocks were raised slightly but usage categories were unchanged. Exports were reduced.
- US soybean ending stocks were lowered further due to an increase in projected crush. Price forecasts were raised slightly.
- Argentine corn and soybean crops were reduced modestly on weather concerns but remain well above last year. Brazil crop forecasts were increased.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
This document discusses the impacts of climate change on Indonesian agriculture and food security. It provides context on Indonesia's development and agriculture sector, then analyzes how climate change may negatively affect agricultural production and food availability based on climate modeling scenarios. The document outlines Indonesia's national policies around climate change mitigation and adaptation for the agriculture sector. These include mainstreaming climate change into development planning, establishing a climate change roadmap, and sectoral plans to reduce emissions and increase resilience of food production.
A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/
Record global harvests in 2013/14 have pushed down prices for cereals like maize and wheat. However, uncertainty in Ukraine has led to temporary price rises for these crops. While prices have been high and volatile since 2008, it now seems the markets may be reaching a new equilibrium as major drivers of change stabilize. Production responses to high prices, especially in developing countries, have accelerated world supply. If stability continues, proposals for radical market interventions may not be needed.
1) The document analyzes data from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on trends in global food security and agriculture between 1990-2018, finding that while world population grew significantly, agricultural production increased through different means across regions.
2) Key trends included emerging economies like China, Brazil, and India playing a larger role in lifting world averages, while African agriculture grew more slowly. Total agricultural emissions increased globally as production rose, though the EU produced more with less emissions.
3) Food balances showed increasing grain deficits in Africa and Asia being met by surpluses in the US and Brazil, while China's growing soybean deficit was met by increased US and Brazilian surpluses. Beef production shifted
USDA made relatively small adjustments in its February supply and demand estimates for corn and soybeans that did not differ significantly from analysts' expectations. However, grain markets reacted negatively due to concerns over tight supplies. Key points include:
- US corn ending stocks were raised slightly but usage categories were unchanged. Exports were reduced.
- US soybean ending stocks were lowered further due to an increase in projected crush. Price forecasts were raised slightly.
- Argentine corn and soybean crops were reduced modestly on weather concerns but remain well above last year. Brazil crop forecasts were increased.
This document summarizes staple food prices and consumption patterns in Mozambique. It finds that the major staple foods in Mozambique are cassava, maize, and rice. However, there are large regional differences, with cassava dominating in the north and maize more important in the central and southern regions. The document analyzes price data for these staples from different regions of Mozambique and finds seasonal price fluctuations that differ between the north and south. Production of staples is dominated by small-scale farmers, and the country relies on imports for some staples like wheat.
Food & agriculture background t haniotis_linke_inTassos Haniotis
1) Agricultural production and yields have increased significantly globally since 1990, especially in developing countries like China and India, while land use per capita has declined.
2) Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture have risen notably worldwide due to increased production, though emissions intensity per unit of output has decreased in most regions.
3) Most major countries and regions have shifted from grain deficits to surpluses since 1990, while livestock product balances have also improved, reflecting higher yields and growing global trade.
The production and consumption of livestock products in developing countries:...ILRI
Presented by Nancy Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, Susan MacMillan, and Delia Grace at the Farm Animal Integrated Research 2012 Conference, Washington DC, March 4–6, 2012
New Dynamics and Trajectories of Agrarian Change in Bolivia: The Soy Complex ...UNDP Policy Centre
This document summarizes the history of agrarian change in Bolivia since the 1950s agrarian reform. It describes how the country has shifted from small-scale subsistence farming to large-scale industrial agriculture focused on soy production for export markets. This has led to the displacement of many small farmers and increased rural poverty and inequality. The expansion of the soy industry has also contributed significantly to deforestation.
‘Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Farming, Landscape and Food Systems for the 21st Century’ was a side event held at the Hunger for Action Conference: 2nd Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change. This session, coordinated by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) considered future policy options for the major transformative changes needed in farming, landscapes and food systems to make climate-smart agriculture a reality.
This document summarizes a presentation by Joachim von Braun on the world food situation. It discusses several key drivers changing the global food equation, including income growth, climate change, urbanization, and the rise of biofuels. It notes that higher and more volatile food prices impact the poor globally. The presentation calls for pro-poor policies like open trade, increased agricultural productivity, and aid to address food insecurity.
The Performance of the Livestock Sector: investigating the supply side challe...essp2
The document discusses the performance of Ethiopia's livestock sector and challenges. It notes that livestock contributes significantly to the economy and demand is growing, yet productivity remains low. The government has implemented policies and programs to improve feed, health, breeding and marketing. While adoption of technologies and productivity of milk, eggs and honey have increased over time, productivity overall is still below potential and institutional support needs strengthening.
Potential impact of climate change on Afghan wheatRajiv Sharma
This document discusses the potential impacts of climate change on wheat production in Afghanistan and strategies to mitigate those impacts. It notes that Afghanistan depends heavily on wheat as a staple crop but production is variable. Previous decades have seen reductions in wheat season rainfall of up to 100mm and temperatures are projected to increase up to 5 degrees Celsius by 2050. This will negatively impact both irrigated and rainfed wheat yields. Strategies proposed to boost production include expanding irrigation infrastructure, using supplemental irrigation technologies, and improving rainfed wheat varieties and production practices to increase their contribution to 15% of total wheat output.
D1S1 Trends of the global grain market in 2015/16 MYEugene Tkachenko
This document provides an outlook on grains and oilseeds for May 2015. It discusses factors influencing prices, including winter weather risks in major exporting regions and currency movements. Supply remains high globally, weighing on prices, though demand is expected to improve. Corn plantings and yields in the US may fall after recent record highs, while soybean plantings are forecast to rise at corn's expense. Inventories are high but expected to draw down later in 2015 and into 2016, supporting prices, if weather cooperates.
This document provides an overview and outlook for various agricultural commodities in 2019. It summarizes the US and Canadian market situations and key factors influencing supply and demand. In the US, yields were forecasted to be above trend in 2018, keeping prices downward despite trade issues. The USDA implemented market facilitation payments for soybeans, hogs, and other crops impacted by trade disputes. Corn and soybean stocks were projected to decline while beef and pork production continued increasing to meet demand. In Ontario, soybean production has grown significantly in recent years while other crops have remained stable or declined.
Achievements and challenges in Ethiopian agricultureILRI
Presented by Dr. Abera Deresa (State Minister, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) at the 'Dialogue on Ethiopia’s Agricultural Development', 12 November 2015, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
1. The document discusses the challenges of climate change adaptation and mitigation in Vietnamese agriculture. It outlines national programs on food security and emissions reduction, and findings from studies on land use change, food security, and flooding risks under climate change.
2. Key challenges include more difficult farming conditions, high food waste, land use policy trade-offs between rice cultivation and forest protection, and fragmentation of policies and data across sectors and agencies. Addressing climate change also requires raising awareness, institutional capacity, and international cooperation.
3. Issues that need to be addressed are focusing on sustainable "better production" over just "more production", coordinating policies across levels and line agencies, and applying models and tools to integrate climate
Drought in the us causes sudden spike in food pricesQNB Group
The drought in the US has caused a spike in global food prices, with corn, wheat, and soy prices rising nearly 50% since early June. The US produces about 40% of the world's corn and the drought is the worst in over 50 years, affecting 60% of the country. This has exacerbated global food price inflation, driven higher by a stronger dollar. Analysts expect prices to continue rising through September before easing, but high volatility in food prices may be the new normal due to increasing demand, climate change impacts on supply, and biofuel substitution of crops. Adaptation is needed through strategic reserves and aid to food insecure countries.
Over the past 10 years, Ethiopia's Ministry of Agriculture has made significant progress in the agricultural sector. They have implemented policies to support farmers, trained over 71,000 development agents to assist farmers, and expanded irrigation which has increased crop and livestock production. Key metrics like area under cultivation, fertilizer and improved seed usage, and milk, honey, and egg production have all increased substantially in recent years due to these efforts and increased farmer awareness.
This document summarizes a study on the simulated effects of climate change on food security in China by 2050. It describes China's current cropland and population situation and challenges to food security. It then outlines the research settings, including crop modeling, yield simulations, and cropping area analysis. The results suggest that climate change will decrease wheat and rice yield growth rates spatially and temporally. Food self-sufficiency projections under different climate scenarios indicate self-sufficiency may only increase as population decreases. The conclusions call for accounting of climate change's nonlinear effects and proper scale in decision-making.
US agricultural policies have had small effects on global food prices, though some policies like sugar tariffs and biofuel mandates have increased prices. Most programs have negligible impacts because support is decoupled from production. Impacts are larger in other countries where farm policies directly affect consumer prices. Research and development spending decreases prices and consumption more than it increases body weight.
Dr. Bill Deen - Forages - Essential crop of the past, present and futureCorieA
This document summarizes a presentation on the past, present, and future of forage crops. It provides an overview of the Canadian forage industry, noting its economic importance. It then discusses trends of declining forage acreage and yields. Reasons for concern about these trends are explained, using Ontario as an example case study. The document suggests future opportunities for forages lie in continued research on improved varieties and management, promoting their economic and environmental benefits, and finding new ways to incorporate forages into cropping systems.
This document summarizes staple food prices and consumption patterns in Mozambique. It finds that the major staple foods in Mozambique are cassava, maize, and rice. However, there are large regional differences, with cassava dominating in the north and maize more important in the central and southern regions. The document analyzes price data for these staples from different regions of Mozambique and finds seasonal price fluctuations that differ between the north and south. Production of staples is dominated by small-scale farmers, and the country relies on imports for some staples like wheat.
Food & agriculture background t haniotis_linke_inTassos Haniotis
1) Agricultural production and yields have increased significantly globally since 1990, especially in developing countries like China and India, while land use per capita has declined.
2) Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture have risen notably worldwide due to increased production, though emissions intensity per unit of output has decreased in most regions.
3) Most major countries and regions have shifted from grain deficits to surpluses since 1990, while livestock product balances have also improved, reflecting higher yields and growing global trade.
The production and consumption of livestock products in developing countries:...ILRI
Presented by Nancy Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, Susan MacMillan, and Delia Grace at the Farm Animal Integrated Research 2012 Conference, Washington DC, March 4–6, 2012
New Dynamics and Trajectories of Agrarian Change in Bolivia: The Soy Complex ...UNDP Policy Centre
This document summarizes the history of agrarian change in Bolivia since the 1950s agrarian reform. It describes how the country has shifted from small-scale subsistence farming to large-scale industrial agriculture focused on soy production for export markets. This has led to the displacement of many small farmers and increased rural poverty and inequality. The expansion of the soy industry has also contributed significantly to deforestation.
‘Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Farming, Landscape and Food Systems for the 21st Century’ was a side event held at the Hunger for Action Conference: 2nd Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change. This session, coordinated by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) considered future policy options for the major transformative changes needed in farming, landscapes and food systems to make climate-smart agriculture a reality.
This document summarizes a presentation by Joachim von Braun on the world food situation. It discusses several key drivers changing the global food equation, including income growth, climate change, urbanization, and the rise of biofuels. It notes that higher and more volatile food prices impact the poor globally. The presentation calls for pro-poor policies like open trade, increased agricultural productivity, and aid to address food insecurity.
The Performance of the Livestock Sector: investigating the supply side challe...essp2
The document discusses the performance of Ethiopia's livestock sector and challenges. It notes that livestock contributes significantly to the economy and demand is growing, yet productivity remains low. The government has implemented policies and programs to improve feed, health, breeding and marketing. While adoption of technologies and productivity of milk, eggs and honey have increased over time, productivity overall is still below potential and institutional support needs strengthening.
Potential impact of climate change on Afghan wheatRajiv Sharma
This document discusses the potential impacts of climate change on wheat production in Afghanistan and strategies to mitigate those impacts. It notes that Afghanistan depends heavily on wheat as a staple crop but production is variable. Previous decades have seen reductions in wheat season rainfall of up to 100mm and temperatures are projected to increase up to 5 degrees Celsius by 2050. This will negatively impact both irrigated and rainfed wheat yields. Strategies proposed to boost production include expanding irrigation infrastructure, using supplemental irrigation technologies, and improving rainfed wheat varieties and production practices to increase their contribution to 15% of total wheat output.
D1S1 Trends of the global grain market in 2015/16 MYEugene Tkachenko
This document provides an outlook on grains and oilseeds for May 2015. It discusses factors influencing prices, including winter weather risks in major exporting regions and currency movements. Supply remains high globally, weighing on prices, though demand is expected to improve. Corn plantings and yields in the US may fall after recent record highs, while soybean plantings are forecast to rise at corn's expense. Inventories are high but expected to draw down later in 2015 and into 2016, supporting prices, if weather cooperates.
This document provides an overview and outlook for various agricultural commodities in 2019. It summarizes the US and Canadian market situations and key factors influencing supply and demand. In the US, yields were forecasted to be above trend in 2018, keeping prices downward despite trade issues. The USDA implemented market facilitation payments for soybeans, hogs, and other crops impacted by trade disputes. Corn and soybean stocks were projected to decline while beef and pork production continued increasing to meet demand. In Ontario, soybean production has grown significantly in recent years while other crops have remained stable or declined.
Achievements and challenges in Ethiopian agricultureILRI
Presented by Dr. Abera Deresa (State Minister, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) at the 'Dialogue on Ethiopia’s Agricultural Development', 12 November 2015, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
1. The document discusses the challenges of climate change adaptation and mitigation in Vietnamese agriculture. It outlines national programs on food security and emissions reduction, and findings from studies on land use change, food security, and flooding risks under climate change.
2. Key challenges include more difficult farming conditions, high food waste, land use policy trade-offs between rice cultivation and forest protection, and fragmentation of policies and data across sectors and agencies. Addressing climate change also requires raising awareness, institutional capacity, and international cooperation.
3. Issues that need to be addressed are focusing on sustainable "better production" over just "more production", coordinating policies across levels and line agencies, and applying models and tools to integrate climate
Drought in the us causes sudden spike in food pricesQNB Group
The drought in the US has caused a spike in global food prices, with corn, wheat, and soy prices rising nearly 50% since early June. The US produces about 40% of the world's corn and the drought is the worst in over 50 years, affecting 60% of the country. This has exacerbated global food price inflation, driven higher by a stronger dollar. Analysts expect prices to continue rising through September before easing, but high volatility in food prices may be the new normal due to increasing demand, climate change impacts on supply, and biofuel substitution of crops. Adaptation is needed through strategic reserves and aid to food insecure countries.
Over the past 10 years, Ethiopia's Ministry of Agriculture has made significant progress in the agricultural sector. They have implemented policies to support farmers, trained over 71,000 development agents to assist farmers, and expanded irrigation which has increased crop and livestock production. Key metrics like area under cultivation, fertilizer and improved seed usage, and milk, honey, and egg production have all increased substantially in recent years due to these efforts and increased farmer awareness.
This document summarizes a study on the simulated effects of climate change on food security in China by 2050. It describes China's current cropland and population situation and challenges to food security. It then outlines the research settings, including crop modeling, yield simulations, and cropping area analysis. The results suggest that climate change will decrease wheat and rice yield growth rates spatially and temporally. Food self-sufficiency projections under different climate scenarios indicate self-sufficiency may only increase as population decreases. The conclusions call for accounting of climate change's nonlinear effects and proper scale in decision-making.
US agricultural policies have had small effects on global food prices, though some policies like sugar tariffs and biofuel mandates have increased prices. Most programs have negligible impacts because support is decoupled from production. Impacts are larger in other countries where farm policies directly affect consumer prices. Research and development spending decreases prices and consumption more than it increases body weight.
Dr. Bill Deen - Forages - Essential crop of the past, present and futureCorieA
This document summarizes a presentation on the past, present, and future of forage crops. It provides an overview of the Canadian forage industry, noting its economic importance. It then discusses trends of declining forage acreage and yields. Reasons for concern about these trends are explained, using Ontario as an example case study. The document suggests future opportunities for forages lie in continued research on improved varieties and management, promoting their economic and environmental benefits, and finding new ways to incorporate forages into cropping systems.
Rijsberman cgiar science overview funders forum 2-11-2012CGIAR
The document provides an update on CGIAR Research and Results. It discusses that food security is the greatest challenge facing humanity in coming decades. CGIAR aims to increase sustainable food production through sustainable intensification while addressing ongoing issues of food insecurity, undernutrition, and micronutrient deficiencies. It summarizes the research focus and expected impacts of various CGIAR Research Programs such as MAIZE, WHEAT, Dryland Cereals, and Water, Land and Ecosystems. The document also highlights some early results and success stories from the research.
The role of ex situ crop diversity conservation in adaptation to climate changeLuigi Guarino
Keynote delivered on behalf of Cary Fowler at international conference on Food Security and Climate Change in Dry Areas -- 1-4 February 2010 -- Amman, Jordan. Thanks to Colin Khoury for putting this together.
This document summarizes various analyses conducted on agricultural development domains in sub-Saharan Africa, including:
1) Analysis of existing land cover and potential agricultural land based on factors like rainfall using satellite data.
2) Analysis of market access based on distance to ports and incorporation of transportation costs.
3) Crop modeling and analysis of potential impacts of climate change on yields and food availability through 2050.
Presentations for CTA/WUR Inception Workshop on “Mainstreaming Tertiary Education in ACP ARD Policy Processes: Increasing Food Supply and Reducing Hunger”
Land restoration, climate change and why cheap stuff doesn't get done. Patrick Worms
The world is warming rapidly, soils are disappearing massively, and cheap solutions exist (and no, they're not Teslas - sorry, Elon). So, why aren't being deployed at scale?
The transformative role of livestock in the developing worldILRI
Presented by Christopher Delgado (World Resources Institute) at the ILRI@40 side event on Livestock-based options for sustainable food systems, Des Moines, USA, 15 October 2014
A Stochastic Analysis of Biofuel Policies
Presented by Michael Obersteiner at the AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change Analysis
June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
For more information on the workshop or to see the latest version of this presentation visit: http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop
Schneider population growth, economic development, and foodbfnd
This lecture discusses the relationship between population growth, economic development, and food security. It explores whether food production can meet the needs of a growing population. Several factors that impact food availability are examined, including population growth, economic growth, land use changes, and climate change. Both factors that increase food scarcity and mitigate scarcity are identified. The lecture also describes the methods used to quantitatively assess the net impact of different development factors on food security.
This document discusses agroforestry as an essential tool for climate resilience. It summarizes that by 2050, food production will need to increase 60% on the same land area while making farms more resilient to climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Agroforestry brings many benefits like increased soil fertility and crop yields through the use of fertilizer trees. Studies show agroforestry systems can produce higher yields than chemical fertilizers alone. Agroforestry also improves climate resilience by buffering weather impacts and storing large amounts of carbon in soils and trees. The document argues agroforestry is key to achieving food security and climate goals by 2050 by sustainably increasing production while reducing emissions and adapting to climate change.
1) Conventional farming practices are producing high crop yields but also causing environmental issues like soil erosion and water pollution.
2) The use of cover crops and perennial living mulches can help address these issues by reducing erosion, improving soil health, and retaining nutrients on the field.
3) Research in Minnesota has found that aerial seeding, broadcast seeding, and seeding cover crops into standing corn can successfully establish cover crops. Weather forecasts may help farmers decide when to terminate cover crops in the spring.
Dr. Marty D. Matlock - Impacts of GMO Products on Food Security and TradeJohn Blue
Impacts of GMO Products on Food Security and Trade - Marty D. Matlock, PhD PE BCEE, Executive Director, Office for Sustainability, Area Director, Center for Agricultural and Rural Sustainability, Professor, Biological and Agricultural Engineering, University of Arkansas, from the 2014 NIAA Annual Conference titled 'The Precautionary Principle: How Agriculture Will Thrive', March 31 - April 2, 2014, Omaha, NE, USA.
More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2014_niaa_how_animal_agriculture_will_thrive
A 'Plan B' for Food Security - The water variability connection, by Jan Lundq...Global Water Partnership
This document discusses critical issues around climate change, food security, and water resources in South Asia. It focuses on developing alternative strategies ("Plan B") to solely increasing food production, given uncertainties from climate change, population growth, and other factors. Specifically, it argues for reducing post-harvest losses and food waste by 50% as a more sustainable approach ("9th MDG") compared to production-focused plans. The document provides statistics and examples to support developing complementary strategies around food storage, transport, markets, and consumption patterns.
The document discusses the synergies between climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa's agriculture sector. It finds that agriculture practices can both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help farmers adapt to climate impacts. Many common practices provide benefits for mitigation, adaptation, and income generation. However, Africa's potential for agricultural mitigation is currently not realized due to barriers like high transaction costs and lack of institutional support. The document calls for continued pilot programs and capacity building to better integrate adaptation and mitigation in Sub-Saharan African agriculture.
This document presents a vision for climate-smart agriculture (CSA). It discusses what CSA is, potential mitigation and adaptation options in CSA, and the path forward. Key points include: CSA aims to support food security, adaptation, and low emissions; mitigation options include practices like alternate wetting and drying in rice and improved nitrogen use efficiency; adaptation relies on technology, knowledge, risk management, and transformative changes; moving forward requires analytical tools to evaluate trade-offs and support integrated decision making at multiple levels.
Confronting the Food Security Threats from Climate Change -- Grand JunctionConservationColorado
From our climate panel in Grand Junction on August 4:
Our Forest, Our Water, Our Land: Local Impacts on Climate Change. Sponsored by Conservation Colorado, Mesa County Library, Math & Science Center
This document summarizes research on using switchgrass and perennial grasses for biofuel production. The main conclusion is that the US can displace over 30% of current petroleum consumption by 2030 using crop residues and biomass from perennial crops like switchgrass to produce cellulosic ethanol. Research has shown that switchgrass is well-suited as a biofuel feedstock because it is native, low-input, high-yielding, supports soil and wildlife conservation, and can be harvested with existing farm equipment. USDA and university researchers have made progress in improving switchgrass through breeding programs and optimizing its management through studies of harvest timing, nitrogen fertilization needs, and cultivar evaluations.
Methodological Tools to Address Mitigation Issues
Presented by Alex de Pinto at the AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change Analysis, June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
For more information about the AGRODEP workshop visit: www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop
Similar to Eugene Takle — US Food Security and Climate Change (20)
Climate change is a major threat to sustainable food security. Temperatures are rising, precipitation patterns are changing, and extreme weather events are occurring more frequently. As a result, producing enough to feed a growing population is becoming more challenging. Everyone in the agriculture sector must adapt—and quickly. Delays now will raise the costs in the future.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
This document discusses plant tolerance to climate change and abiotic stresses like drought and soil salinity. It notes that climate change caused by human activities is causing more extreme weather events like droughts that threaten global agriculture and food security. Plants have developed tolerance mechanisms to cope with stresses, but their sedentary nature makes adaptation difficult. The document reviews research on stress response pathways and genes that confer tolerance to drought and salt when overexpressed. It argues that improving stress tolerance in crops through transgenic and molecular breeding approaches will be crucial to ensuring food security in a changing climate.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The document summarizes the Adapting to Climate Change in China (ACCC) project which aims to improve food security in China by linking climate adaptation and agriculture. The project uses an interdisciplinary approach across physical, biological and socioeconomic factors. It identifies vulnerabilities and risks of climate change to agriculture, water resources, and socioeconomics in three Chinese regions. Stakeholders then prioritize adaptation options. The results inform China's national and provincial climate adaptation strategies and policies.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
This document discusses the impacts of climate change and extreme weather on grasslands and husbandry in China. It finds that temperatures have significantly increased in Inner Mongolia over the last 50 years. Future projections show temperatures continuing to rise. Climate change and extreme events like droughts and snowstorms negatively impact grass biomass and feed supply, degrading grassland ecosystems. Adaptation strategies discussed include ecological restoration projects, rotational grazing, forage production, and adjusting livestock breeds to increase resilience.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
Climate change is projected to shift the northern limits of cropping systems and increase crop yields in China. The analysis found the northern limits of two-cropping and three-cropping systems moved significantly northward between 1981-2007 compared to 1951-1980. This expansion increased spring maize and winter wheat yields by 54-106% and 27-58% respectively in several northern provinces. The limits of high-yield cropping areas also shifted north, increasing potential yields of winter wheat and the winter wheat-summer maize system by 1697-9002 kg/hm2 in Liaoning, Shanxi and Hebei.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
This document summarizes a study on the response of maize phenophases (seedling, heading, maturity stages) to temperature changes in Northeast China over the past 20 years. The study found:
1) Temperatures in May and September increased significantly, extending the growing season.
2) Maize seedling stages advanced by 1-2 days, maturity stages were postponed by 1-4 days, extending the growing season by 2-6 days.
3) Maize seedling stages correlated negatively with May temperatures, advancing more in northern areas. Maturity stages correlated positively with September temperatures, postponing more in eastern Jilin. The growing season extended with longer temperature-allowing
The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
More from Climate Change @ The International Food Policy Research Institute (20)
Li Yun — What does climate change mean to food consumption of low income grou...
Eugene Takle — US Food Security and Climate Change
1. US FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE: AGRICULTURE FUTURES
Country authors:
Eugene S. Takle, Iowa State University
Dave Gustafson, Monsanto Company
Roger Beachy, Danforth Plant Science Research Center
Modeling team:
Gerald C. Nelson, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, and Amanda Palazzo, International Food Policy
Research Institute
Based on the report: “US FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE: AGRICULTURE FUTURES”, Eugene S. Takle, Roger Beachy, David
Gustafson, and modeling team Gerald C. Nelson, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, and Amanda Palazzo, International Food Policy Research
Institute, 2011
2. Outline
• Introduction
• Agriculture, Food Security and US
Development
• Scenarios for Adaptation
• Agriculture and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
• Conclusions
• Summary for Policy Makers
3. Introduction
Overview
• Projected impact of climate change on USA
food security through the year 2050
• Overview of USA current food security
situation, the underlying natural resources
• USA-specific outcomes of a set of scenarios
for the future of global food security in the
context of climate change based on IMPACT
model runs from September 2011.
4. Introduction
Regional Impacts of Climate Change
• Higher temperatures reduce yields and encourage
weed and pest proliferation
• Increased variations in precipitation increase the
likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run
production declines.
• overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are
expected to be negative, threatening global food
security.
• The impacts are
– Direct, on agricultural productivity
– Indirect, on availability/prices of food
– Indirect, on income from agricultural production
5. Introduction
Regional Impacts of Climate Change
• Four Global Climate Models (GCMs), with A1B emissions
scenario, are used to simulate climate changes from 2000 to
2050
• Substantial differences exist among GCM results despite use
of the same widely accepted laws of physics
• Differences in how models account for features of the
atmosphere and surface smaller than about 200 km (e.g.,
cloud processes and land-atmosphere interactions) account
for differences in temperature and precipitation
• Each model’s smaller scale uniquenesses eventually interact
with the global flow to create different regional climate
features among the models
6. Agriculture, Food Security
and US Development
Review of Current Situation
• Proportion of the population living on less than $2 per
day is near zero
• Education levels are high
• Under-5 malnutrition level is very low
• Well-being indicators (life
expectancy at birth and
under-5 mortality rate) are
favorable and have improved
in the last 47 years
Source: World Development Indicators (World Bank, 2009)
7. Agriculture, Food Security and US
Development
Review of Land Use
Source: GLC2000 (JRC 2000)
A significant fraction of total land area is set aside as wilderness areas, national parks,
habitat and species management areas, etc. to provide important protection for
fragile environmental areas, which may also be important for the tourism industry.
8. Agriculture, Food Security and US
Development
Review of Land Use
Source: GLC2000 (JRC 2000)
A significant fraction of total land area is set aside as wilderness areas, national parks,
habitat and species management areas, etc. to provide important protection for
fragile environmental areas, which may also be important for the tourism industry.
9. Agriculture, Food Security and US
Development
Review of Agriculture
Data 2006-2008
Area Harvested
Value of Production
Leading Foods
Source: FAOSTAT (FAO 2010)
10. Agriculture, Food Security and US
Development
Review of Agriculture
Maize
Irrigated
Yield Harvest area density
Rain-fed
Yield Harvest area density
Source: SPAM Dataset (Liangzhi You, Wood, and Wood-Sichra 2009)
11. Agriculture, Food Security and US
Development
Review of Agriculture
Maize
Irrigated
Yield Harvest area density
Rain-fed
Start here
Yield Harvest area density
Source: SPAM Dataset (Liangzhi You, Wood, and Wood-Sichra 2009)
12. Agriculture, Food Security and US
Development
Review of Agriculture
Maize
Irrigated
Yield Harvest area density
Rain-fed
Start here
Yield Harvest area density
Source: SPAM Dataset (Liangzhi You, Wood, and Wood-Sichra 2009)
13. Agriculture, Food Security and US
Development
Review of Agriculture
Maize
Irrigated
Yield Harvest area density
Rain-fed
Start here
Yield Harvest area density
Source: SPAM Dataset (Liangzhi You, Wood, and Wood-Sichra 2009)
14. Agriculture, Food Security and US
Development
Review of Agriculture
Maize
Irrigated
Yield Harvest area density
Rain-fed
Yield Harvest area density
Source: SPAM Dataset (Liangzhi You, Wood, and Wood-Sichra 2009)
15. Agriculture, Food Security and US
Development
Review of Agriculture
Soybeans
Irrigated
Yield Harvest area density
Rain-fed
Yield Harvest area density
Harvest area density
Source: SPAM Dataset (Liangzhi You, Wood, and Wood-Sichra 2009)
16. Scenarios for Adaptation
Economic and Demographic Drivers
• Three pathways
– baseline scenario: “middle of the road”
– pessimistic scenario: plausible, but negative
– optimistic scenario: improves over baseline.
• These three overall scenarios are further
qualified by four GCM climate scenarios
based on scenarios of GHG emissions
18. Precipitation
GCM Projected
Changes in Climate:
2000-2050
CSIRO model gives
small change in
climate
Temperature
19. Precipitation
GCM Projected
Changes in Climate:
2000-2050
CSIRO model gives
small change in
climate
MIROC model gives
large change in
climate
Temperature
20. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
Observed US cotton yields (1930 to present) Observed US soybean yields (1930 to present)
65
60
Maize
F
55
Cotton
Soybeans
50
45
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
Mean annual temperatures for cotton, maize, and
Observed US maize yields (1930 to present)
soybean US production areas (1930 to present)
22. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
MAIZE
Irrigated Rainfed
CSIRO
Irrigated Rainfed
MIROC
Source: IFPRI calculations based on downscaled climate data and DSSAT model runs
23. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
MAIZE
Irrigated Rainfed
CSIRO
Irrigated Rainfed
MIROC
Source: IFPRI calculations based on downscaled climate data and DSSAT model runs
24. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
MAIZE
Irrigated Rainfed
CSIRO
Irrigated Rainfed
MIROC
Source: IFPRI calculations based on downscaled climate data and DSSAT model runs
25. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
MAIZE
Irrigated Rainfed
CSIRO
New irrigation required to avoid crop failure
Irrigated Rainfed
MIROC
Source: IFPRI calculations based on downscaled climate data and DSSAT model runs
26. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
MAIZE
Irrigated Rainfed
CSIRO
Irrigated Rainfed
MIROC
Source: IFPRI calculations based on downscaled climate data and DSSAT model runs
27. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
MAIZE
Irrigated Rainfed
CSIRO
Irrigation not required for yield increases
Irrigated Rainfed
MIROC
Source: IFPRI calculations based on downscaled climate data and DSSAT model runs
28. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
MAIZE
Irrigated Rainfed
CSIRO
Irrigation not required for yield increases
Irrigated Rainfed
Irrigation required to prevent yield loss
MIROC
Source: IFPRI calculations based on downscaled climate data and DSSAT model runs
29. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
SOYBEANS
Irrigated Rainfed
CSIRO
Irrigated Rainfed
MIROC
Source: IFPRI calculations based on downscaled climate data and DSSAT model runs
30. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
SOYBEANS
Irrigated Rainfed
CSIRO
Irrigated Rainfed
MIROC
Source: IFPRI calculations based on downscaled climate data and DSSAT model runs
31. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
SOYBEANS
Irrigated Rainfed
CSIRO
Irrigation not required for yield increases
Irrigated Rainfed
MIROC
Source: IFPRI calculations based on downscaled climate data and DSSAT model runs
32. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
SOYBEANS
Irrigated Rainfed
CSIRO
Irrigation not required for yield increases
Irrigated Rainfed
MIROC
Source: IFPRI calculations based on downscaled climate data and DSSAT model runs
33. Scenarios for Adaptation
Biophysical Scenarios
SOYBEANS
Irrigated Rainfed
CSIRO
Irrigation not required for yield increases
Irrigated Rainfed
Irrigation required
MIROC
Source: IFPRI calculations based on downscaled climate data and DSSAT model runs
34. Scenarios for Adaptation
IMPACT Model
Three Component Models
* IFPRI’s IMPACT model (Cline 2008), a
partial equilibrium agriculture model that
emphasizes policy simulations
*Hydrology model an associated water-
supply demand model
*DSSAT crop modeling suite (Jones et al.
2003) estimates crop yields in response to
climate, soil, and nutrient availability,
Methodology reconciles the limited spatial
resolution of macro-level economic with
detailed models of biophysical processes at
high spatial resolution.
Analysis is done at a spatial resolution of ~ 30
km. Results are aggregated up to the IMPACT
model’s 281 food production units
(FPUs)defined by political boundaries and
major river basins.
Source: Nelson, et al, 2010
36. Scenarios for Adaptation
Income and Demographic Scenarios
IFPRI’s IMPACT model drivers used for simulations include: population,
GDP, climate scenarios, rainfed and irrigated exogenous productivity and
area growth rates (by crop), and irrigation efficiency.
GDP and population choices
Per capita growth rates Source: Based on analysis conducted for Nelson et al. 2010
Source: World Development
Indicators for 1990–2000 and
authors’ calculations for 2010–
2050
37. Scenarios for Adaptation
Income and Demographic Scenarios
IFPRI’s IMPACT model drivers used for simulations include: population,
GDP, climate scenarios, rainfed and irrigated exogenous productivity and
area growth rates (by crop), and irrigation efficiency.
GDP and population choices
Per capita growth rates Source: Based on analysis conducted for Nelson et al. 2010
Source: World Development
Indicators for 1990–2000 and
authors’ calculations for 2010–
2050
38. Scenarios for Adaptation
Income and Demographic Scenarios
GDP Per Capita
Scenarios
Per Capita Income
Scenario Outcomes
41. Example of How Iowa Agricultural
Producers are Adapting to Climate Change:
Longer growing season: plant earlier, plant longer season
hybrids, harvest later
Wetter springs: larger machinery enables planting in smaller
weather windows
More summer precipitation: higher planting densities for higher
yields
Wetter springs and summers: more subsurface drainage tile is
being installed, closer spacing, sloped surface
Fewer extreme heat events: higher planting densities, fewer
pollination failures
Higher humidity: more spraying for pathogens favored by moist
conditions, more problems with fall crop dry-down, wider bean
heads for faster harvest due to shorter harvest period during the
daytime
Drier autumns: delay harvest to take advantage of natural dry-
down conditions, thereby reducing fuel costs
42. Agriculture and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
Agricultural emissions history and potential mitigation
USA GHG Emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs,
HFCs, SF6) by Sector Opportunities for
mitigation by agriculture:
* Increased adoption of conservation
tillage practices
* Optimization of landscape
management (perennial dedicated
energy crops)
* new technologies, implementation
of
Development and
such as the
nitrogen-use efficiency biotech traits
Source: Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 8.0. (World Resource Institute 2011)
43. Conclusions
Analysis shows that climate change does not represent a near-term
threat to food security to the US.
US crop yields have shown a steady exponential growth over the past
40 years of increasing temperatures
This trend is expected to continue for the next 40 years (through 2050),
provided that producers continue to be as successful in adapting
to climate change in the next 40 years as they have been in the last
40 years.
This report did not examine climate trends for the latter half of the 21st
century
44. Summary for Policy Makers
• Increased investments in agricultural research by both private and
public sector are urgently needed.
• Adaptation capacity of agricultural producers is closely linked to
income. Reduction in farm income will have a compounding
negative impact on the ability of producers to make critical
adaptations to climate change.
• It is in the self-interest of the US for both food security and national
security more generally to facilitate agricultural research and
profitable farming in all countries in order to enhance global
agricultural adaptive capacity and minimize risk from food price
spikes
• Near-term advances underway in climate modeling (NARCCAP) and
crop modeling (AgMIP), particularly at regional scales, will enable
refinements to capacity for modeling impacts on agriculture.
Revisiting food security issues should be done at regular intervals to
take advantage of scientific developments.
• Better data, including economic data, on adaptation strategies and
outcomes should be accumulated for modeling future challenges
and opportunities for adaptive management.
45. Summary for Policy Makers
• New, broad collaborations are urgently needed to (1) determine the
current and expected production and distribution gains for staple crops
based on best available data and modeling from private and public
sources; (2) quantify production gaps and prioritize critical
public/private research and collaborations to meet
production/distribution needs; and (3) identify key enabling programs,
technologies, practices, policies and collaborations to improve the
probability for success.
• There is a need to increase standardization and transparency in
integrated modeling of agricultural systems through harmonization of
terms, units and standards, and by supporting the storage and sharing
of validated public computer codes and data that can be used for
modeling activities.
• Improve the individual component models, especially for crop growth;
• Develop validated integrated modeling tools for evaluating the
economic, environmental, and social tradeoffs intrinsic to agricultural
production, including water quality, biodiversity, and other sustainability
topics.
• Create sustainable private/public partnerships that utilize emerging
science and technologies to urgently address gaps that affect crop
yields.