D1S1 Trends of the global grain market in 2015/16 MY

Grains & Oilseeds Outlook
May 2015
Daryna Kovalska
Macquarie Agricultural Commodities Research
daryna.kovalska@macquarie.com
+44 20 3037 2732
Macquarie Capital (Europe) Ltd
Ropemaker Place, 28 Ropemaker Street, London, EC2Y 9HD, United Kingdom
In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of the reader. Before making an investment
decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular
investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. Please see disclaimer.

In 2015, markets have been a battleground for a
number of significant price catalysts
Bullish:
 Winter weather risks in the US and the Black Sea
 Introduction of export taxes for Russian wheat
 Logistics issues in South America:
truckers strikes in Brazil and port strikes in Argentina
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Apr-08 Oct-09 Apr-11 Oct-12 Apr-14
mTUS$/t
Russian wheat exports and prices on feed
wheat, EXW basis
Exports (RHS) Wheat prices
Apr 01-Sep 01,
2008 - export ban
Aug 15, 2010 - Jul 01, 2011-
export ban
Feb 01-May 15, 2015
- export duty
Source: APK-Inform, Customs Data, Macrobond, Macquarie Research, May 2015
Bearish:
 Exchange rate moves
 Sluggish demand, in particular from China
 Favourable weather in recent months
 Build up of inventories
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15
Key exporter currencies versus USD
(31 Dec 2013 = 100)
Brazil Russia EU28 Argentina Ukraine Canada
USD appreciation

Net-net, we have seen continued weakness in
grains and oilseeds prices in 2015
Source: Reuters, Macquarie Research, May 2015
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
USc/bu
CBOT Wheat Price Continuation
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
USc/bu
CBOT Corn Price Continuation
850
950
1,050
1,150
1,250
1,350
1,450
1,550
USc/bu
CBOT Soybean Price Continuation

High stocks remain the key challenge for
agricultural markets
Source: USDA, Macquarie Research, May 2015
175
138
56
190
174
63
201
193
86
5
55
105
155
205
Wheat Corn Soybeans
mT
World Ending Stocks
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15f

Grains & Oilseeds 3 month view Supply Growth Demand Inventory
Corn Neutral Stable OK High
Wheat Bearish Stable Weak High
Soybeans Neutral Strong OK High
Bearish Neutral Bullish
Legend: Views are relative to today's
flat price:
In the short-term, we see no upside for prices, as
grains & oilseeds struggle to absorb supply
Source: Macquarie Research, May 2015
 Ample supplies globally
 Demand undermined by strong USD
 Ethanol production is robust, limiting downside
 Slower supply growth, but significant stocks globally
 Anaemic seaborne demand, given shift in Chinese
consumption towards barley and sorghum
 Significant supply growth and existing inventories,
especially in N and S America
 Increase in Chinese demand will provide some
support

It’s bad out there, but price recovery is on the
horizon… if only for grains
Strong demand
push or deficit
market
Speculative interest
peaking
Limited S&D response
Demand destruction
and/or supply surge
Market back in
balance
Surplus market
Stocks building
High stocks
Supply cuts
Falling stocks
Limited new supply
Supply constraint
Moving back into
deficit
Price acceleration Price spikes Price peaking Price falls Severe price decline
into cost curve
Prices stablise at
low level
Prices stable Pricing to encourage
supply
Soybeans
Corn
Wheat
Positions of grains & oilseeds in the fundamental cycle in 2Q 2015

Corn: we expect 2015 to be a year of supply
adjustments in response to negative margins
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15f 2015/16f 2014/15f 2015/16f
Harvest Area ('000 Ha) 164,638 172,160 177,589 181,437 177,769 177,622 177,769 176,583
Yield (T/Ha) 5.08 5.17 4.89 5.46 5.60 5.57 5.60 5.56
B. Stock 146,626 130,097 134,512 136,514 173,804 192,503 173,804 188,334
Production 835,919 889,327 867,966 990,635 996,117 989,829 995,443 982,581
Imports 92,311 99,900 99,417 123,763 115,446 118,755 114,451 119,887
Supply 1,074,856 1,119,324 1,101,895 1,250,912 1,285,367 1,301,087 1,283,698 1,290,802
Feed & Residual 503,447 508,427 518,770 573,715 597,221 610,321 597,721 618,649
FSI 350,026 359,348 350,185 372,328 374,616 377,934 374,616 372,804
Domestic Consumption 853,473 867,775 868,955 946,043 971,837 988,255 972,337 991,453
Exports 91,286 116,941 95,156 131,065 121,027 120,897 123,027 118,178
Total Demand 944,759 984,716 964,111 1,077,108 1,092,864 1,109,152 1,095,364 1,109,631
E. Stock 130,097 134,608 137,784 173,804 192,503 191,935 188,334 181,172
Stock to Use 13.8% 13.7% 14.3% 16.1% 17.6% 17.3% 17.2% 16.3%
MACQ
WORLD CORN SUPPLY & DEMAND
USDA
-3%
5%
-7%
21%
1%
-5%
-9%
26%
-22%
43%
-4% -3%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16f
YoY change in combined corn production
and exports from major suppliers
Production Exports
US, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine

Wheat: lower supplies into 2015/16 season will support
prices from 2H 2015 onwards
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15f 2015/16f 2014/15f 2015/16f
Harvest Area ('000 Ha) 216,989 220,740 216,280 221,161 223,428 224,437 223,428 224,552
Yield (T/Ha) 3.00 3.15 3.04 3.24 3.25 3.20 3.25 3.20
B. Stock 201,741 197,989 196,162 176,910 189,977 200,971 189,977 201,892
Production 650,794 695,943 657,942 716,824 726,451 718,931 725,357 719,495
Imports 131,680 149,287 144,215 158,206 159,967 153,606 159,932 154,101
Supply 984,215 1,043,219 998,319 1,051,940 1,076,395 1,073,508 1,075,266 1,075,488
Feed & Residual 115,883 146,619 137,093 132,224 141,369 136,059 142,069 137,079
FSI 537,540 541,490 549,106 563,824 570,353 577,186 569,903 576,979
Exports 132,803 158,251 137,361 165,915 163,702 156,946 161,402 157,072
Total Demand 786,226 846,360 823,560 861,963 875,424 870,191 873,374 871,130
E. Stock 197,989 196,859 174,759 189,977 200,971 203,317 201,892 204,358
Stock to Use 25.2% 23.3% 21.2% 22.0% 23.0% 23.4% 23.1% 23.5%
USDA
WORLD WHEAT SUPPLY & DEMAND
MACQ
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16f
mT World Wheat Exports

Soybeans: as we move into the 2015/16 season, the
world should see far more plentiful supplies of beans
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15f 2015/16f 2014/15f 2015/16f
Harvest Area ('000 Ha) 103,060 103,141 109,421 113,123 118,135 120,366 118,135 119,298
Yield (T/Ha) 2.56 2.32 2.45 2.50 2.69 2.64 2.68 2.64
B. Stock 60,947 70,304 53,403 56,469 63,401 85,542 63,401 83,783
Production 263,888 239,525 268,063 283,253 317,253 317,300 316,679 315,187
Imports 88,760 93,456 95,888 111,251 114,147 119,631 115,943 120,532
Supply 413,595 403,285 417,354 450,973 494,801 522,473 496,023 519,503
Feed & Residual 15,302 14,128 15,440 17,958 20,575 20,792 20,925 20,533
Food 14,950 15,344 15,497 16,068 16,705 17,261 16,705 16,965
Crush 221,337 228,112 229,597 240,608 254,482 266,223 257,340 264,620
Exports 91,702 92,157 100,540 112,938 117,497 121,977 117,269 123,550
Total Demand 343,291 349,741 361,074 387,572 409,259 426,253 412,240 425,668
E. Stock 70,304 53,544 56,280 63,401 85,542 96,220 83,783 93,835
Stock to Use 20.5% 15.3% 15.6% 16.4% 20.9% 22.6% 20.3% 22.0%
WORLD SOYBEAN SUPPLY & DEMAND
MACQUSDA
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16f
mT Major Exporter Soybean Stocks
US Brazil Argentina

Supply side of the story
 Farm economics
 Plantings
 Weather risks and rewards: El Niño in focus

Farmers have faced margin pressure since 2014;
the market’s focus for 2015 is on planting areas

The ‘magic’ soy:corn ratio underperformed in Jan-Feb
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
USc/bu CBOT Soybean:Corn Ratio
10 Yr Range 10 Yr Ave 2014 2015

.. but soybeans are still more profitable on a relative basis
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
CORN US$/buSOYBEAN US$/bu
Historical Prices Versus Marginal Costs
Soybean (LHS) Marginal Cost Corn (RHS)

As such, US corn plantings continue to fall
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16f
US Corn Plantings,
YoY % change
78.3
93.5
86.0 86.4 88.2
91.9
97.3 95.4
90.6 88.8
60
70
80
90
100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
m acres US Corn Plantings

..losing area to soybeans
75.5
64.7
75.7 77.5 77.4
75.0
77.2 76.8
83.7 85.0
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
m acres US Soybean Plantings
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16f
US Soybean Plantings,
YoY % change

US yields are likely to see some mean reversion in
2015 after reaching record highs last season
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1960 1971 1982 1993 2004 2015f
bu/acre
US Corn yields
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1960 1971 1982 1993 2004 2015f
bu/acre US Soybean yields
2014
2015f

Good planting progress and the development of El Niño
this year may help crops in the US though
Source: USDA, NOAA, Macquarie Research, May 2015
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-1.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5
Yielddifferencetotrend
ENSO SIGNAL
IOWA Corn Yields VS. ENSO Signal
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
US Corn Planting Progress
20 Yr Range 20 Yr Ave 2014 2015

Similar to the US, Brazilian farmers prefer soybeans to
corn; Ukraine plants less corn too
Source: USDA, CONAB, Macquarie Research, May 2015
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16f
Brazilian Corn and Soybean Plantings,
YoY % change
Corn Soybeans
2.0
2.3
1.7
1.7
1.9
2.4
2.1
2.6
3.5
4.4
4.8
4.6
4.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16f
mHa Ukrainian Corn Harvest Area

Corn yields in Ukraine are likely to underperform given
poor investment in the crop; favourable weather will
help Brazilian yields
Source: USDA, CONAB, Macquarie Research, May 2015
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015f
T/Ha Ukrainian Corn Yields
2015f
2014
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
T/Ha Mato Grosso Corn Yield
f
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
T/Ha Parana Corn Yield
f

The effect of El Niño on Brazilian yields is unclear; it
may bring heavy rains and flooding, hampering logistics
Source: NOAA, USDA, Macquarie Research, May 2015
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-2 -1 0 1 2
Yielddifferencetotrend
ENSO Signal
Brazil, Parana Soy Yields Vs. ENSO Signal

While we expect a reduction in wheat supplies globally
next season, US wheat crop will likely outperform
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16f
mT US Wheat Production
20
70
120
170
220
270
320
2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16f
Major Suppliers Wheat Production
EU28 Black Sea Australia Canada Argentina

The key wild card in the wheat market over the next few
months will be Russia
Source: USDA, RosStat, Reuters, Macquarie Research, May 2015
60
65
70
75
80
85
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NDVI
Stavropol Veg Index
15 Yr Range 15 Yr Ave 2014 2015
60
65
70
75
80
NDVI
Volgograd Veg Index
15 Yr Range 15 Yr Ave 2014 2015
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
NDVI Voronezh Veg Index
15 Yr Range 15 Yr Ave 2014 2015

Dryness in the US Northern Plains and Canada is also a
concern, as is El Niño’s impact on the Australian crop
Source: MDA, Macquarie Research, May 2015

Australian wheat yields normally underperform when
we see El Niño
Source: NOAA, USDA, Macquarie Research, May 2015
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
YieldDifferencetoTrend
ENSO Signal
Australia, NSW - Wheat Yield Versus ENSO
Signal

Demand side of the story
 Chinese feed grain distortion
 US Ethanol and feed demand
 Global soybean consumption
 Implications of conflict on demand in MENA countries

In 2014, corn shipments to China ran very low, as
imports shifted towards barley and sorghum
Source: USDA, Customs Data, Macquarie Research, May 2015
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
mT Chinese Grain Imports (Sep-Mar)
Barley Sorghum DDGS Corn
6.5mT
3.6mT
-44% YoY

China has reduced barley availability globally, so other
countries will need to switch their feed ration to grains
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15
EU28 Animal Feed Ration
Wheat Corn Barley
1.9
2.5
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8 3.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2009/10 2011/12 2013/14 2015/16f
mT Australian Feed Wheat Use
5.9
2.4
2.5
7.1
14.1
2.5
2.8
7.4
6.1
11.4
15.9
7.0
13.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16f
mT EU28 Corn Imports

Corn demand remains robust for ethanol production in
the US, which has been running at record levels
Source: USDA, EIA, Macquarie Research, May 2015
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
'000 Barrels US Ethanol Production
5 Yr Range 5 Yr Median 2013/14 2014/15
5,019
5,000
4,641
5,134
5,200
5,270
4,300
4,500
4,700
4,900
5,100
5,300
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16f
m/bu US Corn Ethanol Demand

US feed demand will increase further, driven by herd
expansion in the livestock sector
190
195
200
205
210
215
220
lb US Hogs monthly slaughter avg dressed
weights
10 Yr Range 10 Yr Median 2014 2015
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
m HEAD US Hogs kept for breeding
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
m HEAD US Cattle slaughter count
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
lbs
US Cattle monthly slaughter avg dressed
weights
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
lb US Broiler monthly slaughter avg dressed
weights
150
155
160
165
170
175
Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15
'000 HEAD
US Broiler chicks placed for meat
production

Soybean demand remains robust, particularly as China
is increasing imports
Source: USDA, Customs Data, Macquarie Research, May 2015
28 29
38 41
50 52
59 60
70 73
78
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
mT Chinese Soybean Imports (Oct-Sep)
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
mT Chinese Soybean Imports
5 Yr Range 5 Yr Median 2013/14 2014/15f

Increased crush levels have also supported soybean
demand
Source: NOPA, SIIA, ABIOVE, Macquarie Research, May 2015
20
25
30
35
40
45
mT US, Brazil, Argentina, EU28, Paraguay Soybean Crush
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16f
Jun-Aug Sep-Nov Dec-Feb Mar-May

..to meet growing soybean meal and oil demand
across the world
Source: USDA, Customs Data, ABIOVE, Macquarie Research, May 2015
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 2009/10 2012/13 2015/16f
Chinese and Indian Soyoil Imports
China India
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
m/liters Brazilian Biodiesel Production Based on
Soybean Oil
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
mT
US Soymeal Consumption

Meanwhile, conflicts in the MENA region restrict import
demand, in particular for wheat from Syria and Iraq
Source: Customs Data, Macquarie Research, May 2015
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
mT
Wheat Exports to Syria
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
mT
Wheat Exports to Iraq

However, exports into Turkey are running at all-time
highs. Is wheat leaking across the border from Turkey?
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
mT
Wheat Exports to Turkey

Grains & Oilseeds 6-month view 12-month view 24-month view
Corn
Wheat
Soybeans
today's flat price: Bearish Neutral Bullish
Legend: Views are relative to
Long-term outlook: risks ahead but some support for
grains; soybeans remain weak
 Price recovery from 2H15
 Supply: reduction in crop production globally in 2015/16
 Demand: strong support from livestock market
 Positive sentiment in corn market will also carry across to entire grains
complex
 Price recovery from 2H15
 Supply: lower YoY crop harvests in US, Brazil, Ukraine
 Demand: strong support from ethanol and livestock markets
 Continued price decline
 Supply: record inventories of ~94mT and continued growth in output will
be an anchor on prices
 Demand: some growth, but not sufficient to clear market supply at
current prices

Important disclosures:
Recommendation definitions
Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand
Outperform – return > 3% in excess of benchmark return
Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return
Underperform – return > 3% below benchmark return
Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth
plus 12 month forward market dividend yield
Macquarie – Asia/Europe
Outperform – expected return >+10%
Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10%
Underperform – expected <-10%
Macquarie First South - South Africa
Macquarie - Canada
Macquarie - USA
Volatility index definition*
This is calculated from the volatility of historic price
movements.
Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to
move up or down 60-100% in a year – investors should be
aware this stock is highly speculative.
High – stock should be expected to move up or down at
least 40-60% in a year – investors should be aware this
stock could be speculative.
Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down
at least 30-40% in a year.
Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or
down at least 25-30% in a year.
Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at
least 15-25% in a year.
* Applicable to Australian/NZ stocks only
Recommendation – 12 months
Note: Quant recommendations may differ from
Fundamental Analyst recommendations
Financial definitions
All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments
made:
Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for
catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS
impairments & IFRS interest expense
Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property
revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority
interests
EPS = adjusted net profit /efpowa*
ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets
ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total
assets
ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds
Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation
*equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of
shares
All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are
modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting
Standards).
Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 March 2015
AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR
Outperform 48.99% 59.51% 49.30% 43.79% 59.59% 52.20% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 7.42% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Neutral 34.12% 26.62% 35.21% 50.29% 34.93% 31.32% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 5.68% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)
Underperform 16.89% 13.87% 15.49% 5.93% 5.48% 16.48% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.87% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Company-Specific Disclosures:
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