A 'Plan B' for Food Security - The water variability connection, by Jan Lundqvist, Senior scientific advisor
Climate change, food, and water security: critical issues and cooperative strategies in an age of increased risk and uncertainty for South Asia GWP – IWMI Initiative A ‘Plan B’ for Food Security - The water variability connection Colombo, February 24-25, 2011 Jan Lundqvist Senior scientific advisor
Question Is the exclusive focus on increased production the best option to achieve food security? Take home messageNo --- It makes sense to develop a Plan B,a 9th MDG; reduce losses & waste by 50%
Mr Henry Kissinger at First World Food Summit, 1974: (then Secretary of State, USA) ”No childwill go to bed hungry within ten years”
Dramatic Jump in Undernourishment while Production increased Utilization Production
Undernourishment & overeating 1,000 mill undernourished - numbers increasing? and for the 1,400 mill overweight, 400 mill obese – numbers increasing(Source: Economist, Dec. 13, 2003; S. Brichieri-Colombi, WWW 2006)
Another 2 - 3 billion in a generation- with dreams- with the right to sense development- much increased purchasing power
Demographic and GDP Trends Population Urban GDP (billion) (billion) ($ billion; 2005 ppp)1800: (T. R. Malthus) <1 913 (1820)1900: 1.651950: just after WW2 2.5 7,0062000: 6 3 56,593 (2005)2050: ~9 ~ 6.5 193,318*)*) trend projectionIncrease: 50% 125% 400%(2000 -2050) Source: GDP trend projection: Hillebrand, E., 2009.
Socio-economic trends;Food supply, water & environmental footprints Food supply in China, Water footprint 1961 - 2005 Source: Junguo Liu & Huub Savenije; FAO FBS
Additional storage peaked in the 70s 80 70Reservoirs (number per year) Other regions 60 Asia 50 Europe 40 North America 30 20 10 0 Up to 1900 1901-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-1998 Source: Mats Lannerstad
Rainfed Agriculture; Soil moisture /green water: size & managementGlobal warming;Variability & returnflow speeded up Options for food, water & livelihood security Land use that permits infiltration • Storing water of rainwater; • Storing produce soil moisture/ • Market access green water Soil moisture enough to over- come effects of dry spells?
The seven fat and the seven lean years (Zimbabwe, 1910 – 2000) Possibilities for high yield High risk; low yield
One planet but (some) live as if we had two Photos: Christer Fuglesang, austronout ”Human demand on the biosphere more than doubled between 1961 – 2007” WWF: Living Planet Report 2010
….and make recommendations as if we had three Plan A: Plan B:Food production to increase by 70% by Post-harvest logistics; food/agr. produce;2050 World Food Summit, Rome, November 2009. - storage, transport & market accessSimilar: World Bank (2008), N. Borlaug (2002), etc. Attention to use & food intake; - Check definition on food security In a context where: Climate change may reduce potential Food waste, EU27: 179 kg/cap, year (2010) yields in SSA and SA by 30% by 2030 (Lobell et al. 2008 in Science) Temperature increase may reduce yields of corn, soya beans and cotton by 30 – 46% in the US in a century (Schlenker & Roberts, PNAS, 2009)
Average intake requirement: 1,800 – 2,200 kcal/p, d
“It is distressing to note that so much time is being devoted to the culture of the plant, so much money spent onirrigation, fertilization and crop protection measures, only to be wasted about a week after harvest” (FAO, 1981)
What is the role of ”evidence-based” knowledge? ”The evolutionary pathway of Man” Courtesy: Andrew Matthews, APN, Wellington, NZ
CONCLUSIONS• Production & supply >> intake requirement• Huge losses & waste = multiple cost• Vulnerability of food system increases• Food chain efficiency = water & other resources use efficiency Where is the road ahead?