Presentation on Research requirements following COP21 - The Paris Agreement by Frank McGovern, EPA given at Session 1 at EPA H2020 SC5 Info Day 7.10.16

1. Research requirements
following
COP21 – The Paris Agreement
Frank McGovern

2. 1. Context science and climate actions
2. Science in the Paris Agreement
3. Key issues and questions
4. A way forward
5. Conclusions
Content

3. Paris 2015; the end of a long road

4. UNFCCC adopted in 1992 during the Rio Earth Summit : IPCC 1st Report
 Berlin (1995): Berlin Mandate IPCC 2nd Report
 Kyoto (1997): Kyoto Protocol (EU 2C)
 Montreal (2004) Kyoto enters into force. IPCC 3rd Report
 Bali(2007) Bali Action Plan IPCC 4th Report
 Copenhagen (2009): Copenhagen Accord 2&1.5C
 Paris (2015) Paris agreement. IPCC 5th Report
Context; Science Policy dynamic

5. Paris Agreement
 Enhance implementation of the Convention (UNFCCC)
 To stabilise atmospheric Greenhouse Gas concentrations at a level that
would a avoid dangerous interference with the climate system.
 To allow ecosystems to adapt naturally and ensure that food production was
not threatened
 The Paris Agreement provides definition, direction and considerable
room for development.
 It highlights the needs for and role of Science and Systematic
Observations
 Cannot be understood without the IPCC 5th Report (AR5)

6. Scientific Context: IPCC AR5
The IPCC 5th Assessment Report messages for PA
 Key messages
 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
 The human influence is clear
 Impacts are evident across all continents and oceans
 Carbon budget for stabilisation of the global temperature
 Science Policy interface
 UNFCCC Review of the Adequacy of the long term global goal (i.e.
2C goal) and implementation.
 The Structured Expert Dialogue (SED) involving the IPCC
 SED report to the UNFCCC is key the goals of the Paris Agreement

7. Paris Agreement purpose
Three key elements
 Hold global average temperature increase to well below 2°C and
pursue efforts to limit this to 1.5°C
 Enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and foster
climate resilient and low emission development in a manner that
doesn’t threaten food production
 Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low
greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilience development

8. Paris Agreement purpose
Mitigation
 Peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions followed by rapid
reductions .. to achieve a balance between anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by sinks in the second
half of the century. (informed by best science)
 Parties will present successive Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs) every 5 years as part of the Global Stock
take
 Supporting processes on transparency, reporting etc also a key
scientific challenge.

9. Adaptation
 Global goal on adaptation of enhancing adaptive capacity,
strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change
 Sharing information, good practices, experiences and lessons learned,
including, as appropriate, as these relate to science, planning, policies and
implementation in relation to adaptation actions;
 Strengthening institutional arrangements…synthesis of relevant
information. and knowledge, provision of technical support and guidance ;
 Strengthening scientific knowledge on climate, including research,
systematic observation of the climate system and early warning systems,
…to inform climate services and supports decision-making;
 Assist developing countries in identifying effective adaptation practices,
... in a manner consistent with encouraging good practices;
 Improving the effectiveness and durability of adaptation actions.

10. Loss and Damage
 Recognises the importance of averting loss and damage
associated with the adverse effects of climate change,
 The Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM) is
integrated into the Paris Agreement
 Enhanced action needed on:
 Early Warning systems; Emergency preparedness;
 Slow onset events;
 Comprehensive risk assessment and management;
 Resilience of communities, livelihoods and ecosystems

11. Global Stock take
 Parties shall periodically take stock of the implementation
of this Agreement to assess the collective progress
towards achieving its purpose and its long-term goals
 It shall do so in a comprehensive and facilitative manner,
considering mitigation, adaptation and the means of
implementation and support, and in the light of equity and
the best available science.
 The UNFCCC is to consider how the IPCC will support
the Global Stock take first one in 2023

12. Key messages from science
 Too stay below 2C global emissions of Carbon Dioxide needs to net-zero
between 2055 and 2070
 Negative emissions will be required to address any overshoot of CO2 emissions
and offset emissions that cannot be brought to zero, e.g. CH4 and N2O
 A net-zero emissions energy system will look completely different from our
current energy system
 Resources must be managed in a sustainable way and profound changes in land
use and agriculture.
 This transition has be managed while dealing with increasing climate impacts
 What more is needed?

13. Total 2.29 W m-2
extra energy
per square
meter.
The atmosphere:
Can we reduce uncertainties
WarmingCooling
Its all about energy

14. “4 Hiroshima bombs per
second.” 90% of this
energy is going into the
oceans
The rest mainly goes
melts ice (glaciers) and is
up-take by land, etc
The Ocean has also taken
up about 30% of the
excess carbon dioxide
also causing Ocean
acidification
The oceans and cryosphere:
Where is the energy going?

15. Research questions. 1
Can we get a better fix on the climate sensitivity? Is it a number or a
function of the state of the Earth systems themselves?
Earth’s radiation balance and factors that determine this i.e. more
needs to be done on aerosols, clouds and other short lived species.
“Allowable emissions”/“Emission space” depends on: climate
sensitivity, stability of carbon sinks and sources including permafrost-
carbon
Long-term stability of carbon in terrestrial systems and linked
challenges of food production/security and need for BECCS

16. Impacts are clear
• Tropics to the poles
• On all continents and in the oceans
• Affecting rich and poor countries

17. PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGES
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further
warming and changes in the climate system
Global glacier volume will
further decrease
Global mean sea level will
continue to rise during the
21st century
It is very likely that the Arctic
sea ice cover will continue to
shrink and thin as global mean
surface temperature rises
Oceans will continue to warm
during the 21st century
Projections

18. Research questions 2
How and at what rate are is the Global Climate and related Earth system
changing? What are the short to medium term impacts?
What are the incremental impacts per 0.5C temperature increase or
equivalent?
What are the key trends and the rate and extent of changes to physical
and ecological systems, including migrating species?
The extent of sea-level rise including regional patterns and ice sheet
stability (such as marine ice sheet instability)?
How is the water cycle changing, are major precipitation patterns
shifting and how fragile is the cryosphere?
.
How are the ocean systems and currents changing, how sensitive is
Greenland Ice sheet and the MOC?

19. GHG emissions since 1970

20. SOURCES OF EMISSIONS
The main sources of emissions
Energy production remains the primary driver of GHG emissions
35%
24% 21% 14%
6.4%
2010 GHG emissions
Energy Sector
Agriculture,
forests and
other land uses
Industry Transport
Building
Sector
AR5 WGIII SPM

21. A complex carbon cycle

22. Research questions 3
What is the best way to determine a balance of GHG emissions and
removals?
Can we better constrain the carbon cycle? Reduce uncertainty on Earth
system carbon dynamics?
Can we provide required spatial and temporal detail on emissions and
removals?
What can Earth Observations (EO) tell us about hot spots and how to
manage these?
Support transparency, is effective verification of official GHG emissions and
removals possible?
What are the cost effective pathways for local to global decarbonisation?

23. Charting a way forward
 Identification of barriers and options to address these
 Economic and financial new climate economy, understanding finance flows
 Institutional and infrastructural lock in and costs of transition
 Technological barriers and management of transition
 Social, cultural and behaviours issues and addressing these
 Provide broad scope solutions
 Pathways to net zero carbon dioxide and near or below zero GHGs
 Improving Human health and wellbeing
 Societal resilience and security
 Quality of life and sustainable development
 Linked issues
 Governance and management systems
 Supports for analysis and implementation of policies
 Acceptability of actions e.g. land use

24. Charting the way forward
 The IPCC 6th Assessment Cycle (2016-2022)
 Full report in time for 1st Global Stocktake
 Three Special Reports;
 I.5C requested by the UNFCCC COP21
 Land, desertification, food security and GHG fluxes (Agriculture & land use)
 Oceans and the Cyrosphere
 Publications are essential to the work of the IPCC
 Inform the UNFCCC on findings
 Regular consideration of Systematic Observations
 Engage with the Research Dialogue
 Contributions to the Review of the Global Goal/Global Stocktake
 Assessment and support for EU and national actions

25. Conclusions:
…the real work starts now,
research and innovation is central to this.