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IPCC Informes de Evaluación del IPCC como insumo par a las negociaciones en el marco de la CMNUCC
1. Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
IPCC Informes de Evaluación del IPCC como insumo
para las negociaciones en el marco de la CMNUCC
Thelma Krug
Co-Presidente del Grupo de Trabajo de Inventarios
Nacionales de Gases de Efecto Invernadero
2. Sintesis de la Apresentación
• El IPCC y la Convención
• El Principio de Precaución en la Convención
• El proceso de producción de los informes de
evaluación del IPCC
• Importantes hallazgos en el AR5
• Hallazgos relevantes en decisiones de la Convención
3. El IPCC y la Convención
In the 1980s the risk of human-induced climate change
was increasingly debated by scientists and policymakers
and the need for independent, scientific and technical
advice to inform decision-making on this important and
complex issue became apparent. This is why in 1988
UNEP and WMO established the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to prepare, based on
available scientific information, a report on all aspects
of climate change and its impacts, with a view to
formulating realistic response strategies.
4. El IPCC y la Convención
The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) endorsed the action by UNEP
and WMO to establish the IPCC and requested as soon as possible “a
comprehensive review and recommendations with respect to:
• The state of knowledge of the science of climate and climatic change;
• Programmes and studies on the social and economic impact of climate
change, including global warming
• Possible response strategies to delay, limit or mitigate the impact of adverse
climate change
• The identification and possible strengthening of relevant existing international
legal instruments having a bearing on climate
• Elements for inclusion in a possible future international convention on
climate”.
5. El IPCC y la Convención
• IPCC finalized its first comprehensive assessment
report on 30 August 1990 in Sundsvall, Sweden. The
United Nations General Assembly noted the report
findings and as a consequence decided to initiate
negotiations for an effective framework convention
on climate change to be completed prior to the UN
Conference on Environment and Development in June
1992.
6. El IPCC y la Convención
• After entry into force of the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1994 the IPCC
remained the most important source of scientific,
technical and socio-economic information. The
relationship between the UNFCCC and the IPCC
became a model for interaction between science
and decision-makers.
• The IPCC represents a unique partnership between
the scientific community and the world’s
governments.
7. Article 3 Convention (3) - Principles
The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate,
prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and
mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious
or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should
not be used as a reason for postponing such measures, taking
into account that policies and measures to deal with climate
change should be cost-effective so as to ensure global benefits at
the lowest possible cost. …
8.
9. Avances sucesivos
• Los modelos climáticos ha mejorado desde el AR4.
– Datos mas acurados, modelos mas realistas
- Búsqueda de reducir las incertidumbres de los resultados y
proyecciones
• Expressed as a qualitative level of confidence (From very low to
very high)
• When possible, probabilistically, with a quantified probabilidade
– From exceptionally unlikely to virtually certain
» Virtually certain -99-100%
» Very likely – 90-100%
» Likely – 66-100%
» Unlikely – 0-33%
» Very unlikely – 0-10%
» Exceptionally unlikely – 0-1%
• Mayor regionalización
10. Ultimate Objective of the Climate Change
Convention – Article 2
• To achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climate system. Such a level should be
achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to
ensure that food production is not threatened and to
enable economic development to proceed in a
sustainable manner.
11. Importantes resultados en el AR5
• Las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero
aumentaran desde la era pre-industrial... y llevaran a
concentraciones en la atmósfera de dioxido de
carbono, metano y oxido nitroso sin precedentes...Es
extremamente probable que sus effectos fueran la
causa dominante del aquecimento observado desde
la mitad del seculo XX.
• Recognizes that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and that most
of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-
twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, as assessed by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its Fourth Assessment
Report (AR4); - Cancun Agreements
12. Importantes resultados en el AR5
• The evidence for human influence in the climate
system has grown desde el AR4. It is extremely likely
that more than half of the observed increase in
global average surface temperature from 1951 to
2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in
GHG concentrations and other anthropogenic
forcings together.
13. Importantes resultados en el AR5
• Continued emission of GHG will cause further warming
and long-lasting changes in all components of the
climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe,
pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and
ecosystems. Limiting climate change would require
substantial and sustained reductions of GHG
emissions which, together with adaptation, can
limit climate change.
14. Importantes resultados en el AR5
• Anthropogenic GHG emissions are mainly driven by population
size, economic activity, life style, energy use, land-use patterns,
technology and climate policy. The Representative
Concentration Pathways which are used to make projections
based on these sectors, describe four different 21st century
pathways of GHG emissions and atmospheric concentrations,
air pollutant emissions and land use. The RCPs include a
stringent mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6), two intermediate
scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0) and one scenario with very
high GHG emissions (RCP 8.5).
15. Importantes resultados en el AR5
• Climate change will amplify existing risks and create
new risks for natural and human systems.
• Climate change has the characteristics of a collective
action problem at the global scale, because most GHGs
accumulate over time and mix globally…
• Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP
scenarios except el RCP 2.6.
16. • Without additional mitigation efforts beyond those in
place today, and even with adaptation, warming by
the end of the 21st century will lead to high to very
high risk of severe, widespread and irreversible
impacts globally (high confidence).
17. Importantes resultados en el AR5
• Emission scenarios leading to CO2-eq concentrations
in 2010 of about 450 ppm or lower are likely to
maintain warming below 2oC over the 21st century
relative to pre-industrial levels. These scenarios are
characterized by 40 to 70% global anthropogenic
GHG emissions reductins by 2050 compared to 2010,
and emission levels near zero or below in 2100.
18.
19. Decision 1/CP.16 - The Cancun Agreements
• Recognizes that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and
that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures
since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed
increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, as
assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in
its Fourth Assessment Report;
• Further recognizes that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas
emissions are required according to science, and as documented in
the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, with a view to reducing global greenhouse gas
emissions so as to hold the increase in global average temperature
below 2 °C above preindustrial levels, and that Parties should take
urgent action to meet this long-term goal, consistent with
science and on the basis of equity;
20. Decision 1/CP.16 - The Cancun Agreements
Urges developed country Parties to increase the
ambition of their economy-wide emission reduction
targets, with a view to reducing their aggregate
anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal
Protocol to a level consistent with the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change.
21. Decision 1/CP.16 - The Cancun Agreements
Decides to periodically review the adequacy of the long-term
global goal …, in the light of the ultimate objective of the
Convention …
(a) This review should be guided by …inter alia:
The best available scientific knowledge, including the
assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change;
To consider on an ongoing basis throughout the review the material from the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change as it becomes available, as well as relevant inputs referred to in
decision 2/CP.17, paragraph 161, that are published after the cut-off dates of the
Fifth Assessment Report, through regular scientific workshops and expert
meetings and with the participation of Parties and experts, particularly from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (FCCC/CP/2012/8/Add.1)
22. Decision 2/CP.18 - Advancing the Durban Platform
Decides that Parties will urgently work towards the deep
reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions required to
hold the increase in global average temperature below
2°C above pre-industrial levels and to attain a global
peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions as soon as
possible, consistent with science and as documented
in the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
reaffirming that the time frame for peaking will be longer
in developing countries;
23. FCCC/CP/2012/8/Add.1
• Urges developed country Parties to increase the
ambition of their quantified economy-wide emission
reduction targets, with a view to reducing their
aggregate anthropogenic emissions of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases not controlled
by the Montreal Protocol to a level consistent with
the ranges documented in the Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change and subsequent Assessment Reports.
24. Decision 1/CP.19
The Conference of the Parties,
Expressing serious concern that the warming of the
climate system is unequivocal and since the 1950s, many
of the observed changes are unprecedented over
decades to millennia, as indicated by the findings
contained in the contribution of Working Group I to the
Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change.
25. Decision 1/CP.19
Further advancing the Durban Platform
• Warning that climate change represents an urgent and potentially
irreversible threat to human societies, future generations and the
planet, that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will
cause further warming and changes in all components of the
climate system and that limiting climate change will require
substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas
emissions.
• Underlining the significant gap between the aggregate effect of
Parties’ mitigation pledges in terms of global annual
emissions of greenhouse gases by 2020 and aggregate
emission pathways consistent with having a likely chance of
holding the increase in global average temperature below 2 °C or
1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
26. FCCC/CP/2014/10/Add.1 Elements for a draft negotiating text
• Being guided by the best available scientific knowledge, including, inter alia,
the assessment reports / the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and inputs and resources from
Parties.
• Recognizing that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions will be
required to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention and the
long-term temperature limit / holding the increase in global average
temperature, and that such cuts must be achieved within a time frame
sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure
that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development
to proceed in a sustainable manner.
• Also recognizing that scenarios consistent with a likely chance of holding the
global average temperature increase to below 2 °C relative to pre-industrial
levels include substantial cuts in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions by mid-century and net emission levels near zero gigatonnes
of carbon dioxide equivalent or below in 2100.
27. AD HOC WORKING GROUP ON THE
DURBAN PLATFORM FOR ENHANCED ACTION
ADP.2015.4.InformalNote, 24 JULY 2015
• These elements for a draft negotiating text reflect work
in progress. They neither indicate convergence on the
proposals presented nor do they preclude new
proposals from emerging in the course of the
negotiations in 2015.
28. AD HOC WORKING GROUP ON THE
DURBAN PLATFORM FOR ENHANCED ACTION
ADP.2015.4.InformalNote, 24 JULY 2015
• Option 1:
• All Parties to take action and cooperate to further implement the Convention
in order to reach its ultimate objective as stated in its Article 2 … by
achieving an emission pathway consistent with limiting the global average
temperature increase to below 2 °C or 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels,
which entails:
• 3.1 Option (a): Ensuring significant global greenhouse gas emission
reductions over the next few decades or a 40–70 per cent reduction in
global greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2050 and near-
zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other long-lived
greenhouse gases by the end of the century.
