This document discusses the corn and soybean markets and weather outlook for 2017 and beyond. It notes current July and December futures prices for corn and soybeans and expected price ranges for November soybeans. It also discusses US corn yield trends under strong La Niña, moderate El Niño, and neutral conditions and the price-yield risk for December corn based on three yield thresholds. Finally, it provides context on climate volatility in agriculture over the next 20 years and the importance of risk management.

1. Weather Outlook
2017 & Beyond
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University

2. Corn/Soybean Market
• Market @9am 7 Jun 2017
• Market estimates by Dr. Wisner
ELEC. CORN[10] Jul-17 3.79¾
Dec-17 3.99¾
expect Dec @ $ 3.90 to $4.50
ELEC. SOYBEANS[10] Jul-17 9.30
Nov-16 9.38
expect Nov @ $ ---

3. US Corn Yield BPA
• https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Field_Crops/cornyld.php
Strong
La Niña
Moderate
El Niño

4. Non-Niño Year price-yield Risk
• Corn price risk (DEC) as of 6 June 2017
Greater than
189 bu/A
< $2.50/bu
172 bu/A
$3.45/bu
<155 bu/A
>$6.40/bu
5 June price for
Dec Corn $3.92
(63% chance price
will go down)

5. •

6. • (-8 is full strength El Niño)
• 6 Jun 2017 1012.76 1013.60 -14.97 0.77 -1.93

7. High risk Moderate High
Beyond

8. El Niño
Friend of the Midwest farmer.
Better friend of the Argentine farmer (El Nino
tends to be a Christmas event that may or may
not persist through the Midwest growing
season).

9. Strong
La Niña
Moderate
El Niño

10. Summer Temperature 2010
• This is OPPOSITE of past 3 years

11. La Niña : Extremes

12. El Niño: 70% chance of yield
greater than the trend.
La Niña: 70% chance of yield
smaller than the trend.
Neutral: 52% chance of yield
greater than the trend.

13. (Oct to date)
Extensive Flooding in Northeast IA
October 2009
October 2010
to 2012
.
El Niño
To
La Niña

14. Return to El Niño

16. Weather Volatility
Climate RISK in Agriculture is
likely to be greater during the
next 20 years
Management of RISK is of
increasing importance

17. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif

18. stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
137
Beyond

19. A Little on the USA:
Continental Divide Anomaly
•

20. • Boundary is the Continental
Divide, do NOT expect change
Sudden Change
developing

21. 6-10 days
•

22. Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
Climatologist
END
WWW.twitter.com/elwynntaylor
On Google: Where is elwynn

23. Global Warming
•

24. • http://yourweatherservice.com/climate/west-
lafayette/united-states/usin0707

25. • http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&net
work=INCLIMATE&station=INC004&year=2016&var=high&dpi=100

26. •

27. • 1994 Record high Yield 1995 decimated Yield

28. mygeohub.org/groups/u2u/ac
v

29. •

30. •

31. 159 $4.20
162.3
178
19581
146
170 $3.60 *
165½ $3.70
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”
* Central. IA $3.10
US Corn Wisner
as of 6-12-2015

32. 41 $9.45
45
50
5923
40
46 $8.25 *
45 $8.50
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”
* Central. IA $7.70
US Soybean Wisner
as of 6-12-2015

34. • By Wisner
9.31 1/29.31 1/2
Avg. Yld., Bu./A. 154.8 172.0 189.2
Iowa season avg. Price/bu. $6.40 $3.45 $2.50

35. • El Nino assumed corn Dec contract at harvest time
173

36. Non-Niño Year price-yield Risk
• Corn price risk (DEC) as of 6 June 2017
Greater
than 189
bu/A
< $2.50/bu
172 bu/A
$3.45/bu
<155 bu/A
>$6.40/bu
5 June price for
Dec Corn $3.92
(63% chance price
will go down)