The document discusses the outlook for corn and soybean prices in 2010 and 2011. It notes that corn planting was completed very early this year and crop conditions are the best ever, which will likely lead to lower corn prices through late summer. Soybean planting has been slowed by rain but crop ratings are currently at a record high. The large U.S. soybean exports so far mean supplies could remain tight in July and August. The document analyzes supply and demand forecasts and risks to prices over the coming years.
Agri-intelligence provides in depth analyses of the agriculture industry. This issue analyses the commodity markets and specifies outlooks for the commodities; cocoa, sugar, soy bean, maize and wheat.
Custos de Produção Brasileiros e Competitividade Internacional da Carne Bovin...BeefPoint
Palestra Custos de Produção Brasileiros e Competitividade Internacional da Carne Bovina Brasileira, por Sergio de Zen, professor Esalq/USP, coordenador de pecuária do Cepea.
As “enlightened” as such statement by what Stanford University calls “the most influential English speaking philosopher of the 19th century” is, one could easily make an argument that when it comes to commodity market analysis the statement seems to be as useful as a bicycle to a fish.
This report provides in depth review of the market activities of ag commodities in the month of April. It also gives the outlook of the commodities covered.
Agri-intelligence provides in depth analyses of the agriculture industry. This issue analyses the commodity markets and specifies outlooks for the commodities; cocoa, sugar, soy bean, maize and wheat.
Custos de Produção Brasileiros e Competitividade Internacional da Carne Bovin...BeefPoint
Palestra Custos de Produção Brasileiros e Competitividade Internacional da Carne Bovina Brasileira, por Sergio de Zen, professor Esalq/USP, coordenador de pecuária do Cepea.
As “enlightened” as such statement by what Stanford University calls “the most influential English speaking philosopher of the 19th century” is, one could easily make an argument that when it comes to commodity market analysis the statement seems to be as useful as a bicycle to a fish.
This report provides in depth review of the market activities of ag commodities in the month of April. It also gives the outlook of the commodities covered.
21st feb.,2014 daily exclusive oryza news by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Daily Rice Global Rice e-Newsletter shared by Riceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news with us for Global readers.
Dear all guests/Commentators/Researchers/Experts ,You are humbly requested to share One/Two pages write up with Riceplus Magazine .
For more information visit (www.ricepluss.com + http://publishpk.net/index.php/riceplus).
Share /contribute your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine to riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
Dr. Dennis DiPietre - Bacon Quality Dilemma - Production for Pigs and the DDGSJohn Blue
Variability in the Principal Determinants of Cost of Production for Pigs and the DDGS - Bacon Quality Dilemma - Dr. Dennis DiPietre, KnowledgeVentures, LLC, from the 2013 Boehringer Ingelheim Swine Health Seminar, August 16-18, 2013, Wrightsville Beach, NC, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2013-boehringer-ingelheim-carolina-swine-health-seminar
9th march,2015 daily global rice e newsletter by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news for readers.
Share your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine contact riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
Cassava markets, value chains and livelihoods in Asia: when uncertain is the...Jonathan Newby
Presentation at GCP21 Conference in the session of Cassava Mosaic Disease in Asia to highlight what is at stake with disease potentially impacting the productivity of this important commercial crop.
Dr. Steve Meyer - Grains and Livestock Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Grains and Livestock Economic Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, from the 2013 World Pork Expo, June 5 - 7, 2013, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2013-world-pork-expo
Dr. Steve Meyer - US Pork Industry Economic Situation and OutlookJohn Blue
US Pork Industry Economic Situation and Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, from the 2014 Boehringer Ingelheim North Carolina Swine Health Seminar, August 15, 2014, Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2014-boehringer-ingelheim-carolina-swine-health-seminar
Economic Update - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc., from the 2015 Missouri Pork Expo, February 10 - 11, 2015, Columbia, MO, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2015-missouri-pork-expo
Market Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, livestock and agricultural economist, Paragon Economics, Inc. , from the 2012 Minnesota Pork Congress, January 18-19, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Dr. Steve Meyer - Markets, Economic Situation, and OutlookJohn Blue
Markets, Economic Situation, and Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, from the 2014 World Pork Expo, June 4 - 6, 2014, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2014-world-pork-expo
Dr. Steve Meyer - Riding the Roller Coaster: Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Riding the Roller Coaster: Economic Outlook - Steve Meyer, livestock and agricultural economist, Paragon Economics, Inc., from the 2012 Iowa Pork Congress, January 24 - 26, Des Moines, IA, USA.
Dr. Steve Meyer - Profit Tracker 2015: Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Profit Tracker 2015: Economic Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, from the 2015 Iowa Pork Congress, January 28-29, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2015-iowa-pork-congress
21st feb.,2014 daily exclusive oryza news by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Daily Rice Global Rice e-Newsletter shared by Riceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news with us for Global readers.
Dear all guests/Commentators/Researchers/Experts ,You are humbly requested to share One/Two pages write up with Riceplus Magazine .
For more information visit (www.ricepluss.com + http://publishpk.net/index.php/riceplus).
Share /contribute your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine to riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
Dr. Dennis DiPietre - Bacon Quality Dilemma - Production for Pigs and the DDGSJohn Blue
Variability in the Principal Determinants of Cost of Production for Pigs and the DDGS - Bacon Quality Dilemma - Dr. Dennis DiPietre, KnowledgeVentures, LLC, from the 2013 Boehringer Ingelheim Swine Health Seminar, August 16-18, 2013, Wrightsville Beach, NC, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2013-boehringer-ingelheim-carolina-swine-health-seminar
9th march,2015 daily global rice e newsletter by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news for readers.
Share your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine contact riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
Cassava markets, value chains and livelihoods in Asia: when uncertain is the...Jonathan Newby
Presentation at GCP21 Conference in the session of Cassava Mosaic Disease in Asia to highlight what is at stake with disease potentially impacting the productivity of this important commercial crop.
Dr. Steve Meyer - Grains and Livestock Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Grains and Livestock Economic Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, from the 2013 World Pork Expo, June 5 - 7, 2013, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2013-world-pork-expo
Dr. Steve Meyer - US Pork Industry Economic Situation and OutlookJohn Blue
US Pork Industry Economic Situation and Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, from the 2014 Boehringer Ingelheim North Carolina Swine Health Seminar, August 15, 2014, Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2014-boehringer-ingelheim-carolina-swine-health-seminar
Economic Update - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc., from the 2015 Missouri Pork Expo, February 10 - 11, 2015, Columbia, MO, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2015-missouri-pork-expo
Market Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, livestock and agricultural economist, Paragon Economics, Inc. , from the 2012 Minnesota Pork Congress, January 18-19, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Dr. Steve Meyer - Markets, Economic Situation, and OutlookJohn Blue
Markets, Economic Situation, and Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, from the 2014 World Pork Expo, June 4 - 6, 2014, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2014-world-pork-expo
Dr. Steve Meyer - Riding the Roller Coaster: Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Riding the Roller Coaster: Economic Outlook - Steve Meyer, livestock and agricultural economist, Paragon Economics, Inc., from the 2012 Iowa Pork Congress, January 24 - 26, Des Moines, IA, USA.
Dr. Steve Meyer - Profit Tracker 2015: Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Profit Tracker 2015: Economic Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, from the 2015 Iowa Pork Congress, January 28-29, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2015-iowa-pork-congress
Dr. Steve Meyer - Meat/Poultry Economic Update & OutlookJohn Blue
Meat/Poultry Economic Update & Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc., from the 2014 Missouri Pork Expo , February 11 - 12, 2014, Columbia, MO, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2014-missouri-pork-expo
Dr. Steve Meyer - Pork Industry Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Pork Industry Economic Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, from the 2015 Minnesota Pork Congress, January 21-22, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2015-minnesota-pork-congress
Dr. Steve Meyer - Show Me the Money: Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Show Me the Money: Economic Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, President of Paragon Economics, from the 2013 Iowa Pork Congress, January 23-24, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2013-iowa-pork-congress
Dr. Steve Meyer - Market Outlook for 2013 and BeyondJohn Blue
Market Outlook for 2013 and Beyond - Dr. Steve Meyer, President of Paragon Economics, from the 2013 Minnesota Pork Congress, January 16-17, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2013-minnesota-pork-congress
Many ways to support street children.pptxSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Canadian Immigration Tracker March 2024 - Key SlidesAndrew Griffith
Highlights
Permanent Residents decrease along with percentage of TR2PR decline to 52 percent of all Permanent Residents.
March asylum claim data not issued as of May 27 (unusually late). Irregular arrivals remain very small.
Study permit applications experiencing sharp decrease as a result of announced caps over 50 percent compared to February.
Citizenship numbers remain stable.
Slide 3 has the overall numbers and change.
What is the point of small housing associations.pptxPaul Smith
Given the small scale of housing associations and their relative high cost per home what is the point of them and how do we justify their continued existance
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Up the Ratios Bylaws - a Comprehensive Process of Our Organizationuptheratios
Up the Ratios is a non-profit organization dedicated to bridging the gap in STEM education for underprivileged students by providing free, high-quality learning opportunities in robotics and other STEM fields. Our mission is to empower the next generation of innovators, thinkers, and problem-solvers by offering a range of educational programs that foster curiosity, creativity, and critical thinking.
At Up the Ratios, we believe that every student, regardless of their socio-economic background, should have access to the tools and knowledge needed to succeed in today's technology-driven world. To achieve this, we host a variety of free classes, workshops, summer camps, and live lectures tailored to students from underserved communities. Our programs are designed to be engaging and hands-on, allowing students to explore the exciting world of robotics and STEM through practical, real-world applications.
Our free classes cover fundamental concepts in robotics, coding, and engineering, providing students with a strong foundation in these critical areas. Through our interactive workshops, students can dive deeper into specific topics, working on projects that challenge them to apply what they've learned and think creatively. Our summer camps offer an immersive experience where students can collaborate on larger projects, develop their teamwork skills, and gain confidence in their abilities.
In addition to our local programs, Up the Ratios is committed to making a global impact. We take donations of new and gently used robotics parts, which we then distribute to students and educational institutions in other countries. These donations help ensure that young learners worldwide have the resources they need to explore and excel in STEM fields. By supporting education in this way, we aim to nurture a global community of future leaders and innovators.
Our live lectures feature guest speakers from various STEM disciplines, including engineers, scientists, and industry professionals who share their knowledge and experiences with our students. These lectures provide valuable insights into potential career paths and inspire students to pursue their passions in STEM.
Up the Ratios relies on the generosity of donors and volunteers to continue our work. Contributions of time, expertise, and financial support are crucial to sustaining our programs and expanding our reach. Whether you're an individual passionate about education, a professional in the STEM field, or a company looking to give back to the community, there are many ways to get involved and make a difference.
We are proud of the positive impact we've had on the lives of countless students, many of whom have gone on to pursue higher education and careers in STEM. By providing these young minds with the tools and opportunities they need to succeed, we are not only changing their futures but also contributing to the advancement of technology and innovation on a broader scale.
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
A process server is a authorized person for delivering legal documents, such as summons, complaints, subpoenas, and other court papers, to peoples involved in legal proceedings.
Russian anarchist and anti-war movement in the third year of full-scale warAntti Rautiainen
Anarchist group ANA Regensburg hosted my online-presentation on 16th of May 2024, in which I discussed tactics of anti-war activism in Russia, and reasons why the anti-war movement has not been able to make an impact to change the course of events yet. Cases of anarchists repressed for anti-war activities are presented, as well as strategies of support for political prisoners, and modest successes in supporting their struggles.
Thumbnail picture is by MediaZona, you may read their report on anti-war arson attacks in Russia here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/13/burn-map
Links:
Autonomous Action
http://Avtonom.org
Anarchist Black Cross Moscow
http://Avtonom.org/abc
Solidarity Zone
https://t.me/solidarity_zone
Memorial
https://memopzk.org/, https://t.me/pzk_memorial
OVD-Info
https://en.ovdinfo.org/antiwar-ovd-info-guide
RosUznik
https://rosuznik.org/
Uznik Online
http://uznikonline.tilda.ws/
Russian Reader
https://therussianreader.com/
ABC Irkutsk
https://abc38.noblogs.org/
Send mail to prisoners from abroad:
http://Prisonmail.online
YouTube: https://youtu.be/c5nSOdU48O8
Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/libertarianlifecoach/episodes/Russian-anarchist-and-anti-war-movement-in-the-third-year-of-full-scale-war-e2k8ai4
1. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Steve R. Meyer, Ph.D.
Paragon Economics, Inc.
NPB Pork Management Conference -- 2010
Profit Prospects for Pork Producers
– 2010 and Beyond
3. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Profits for the foreseeable future because:
Lower – but NOT LOW – costs with even
lower input prices possible
- EXCELLENT planting season
- Acres are good, condition is good at present
- It‟s up to Mother Nature – and maybe the EU
Hog price recovery – better than expected
- Slightly lower supplies
- Stronger wholesale and farm demand
- Help from competitors – but will it last?
4. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Short-term risks to consider:
Weather – the crop is not made YET
Economic turmoil in Europe and the
impact on $US and exports
Domestic demand if the “recovery”
remains soft
Quick supply response to profits
A host of potential goofy occurrences –
remember H1N1?
5. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Grain and feed cost outlook – Issues:
Record-early corn planting and very good
crop condition
Weak ethanol margins, “low” oil prices –
will not be supportive of corn
Modest increase in corn exports -- $US???
Expectations on E-15 decision
El Nino – La Nina???
Last week‟s Crop Prod & WASDE – nothing
big
BIG REPORTS: June 30 Acreage & Stocks
6. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Corn planting and condition
CORN CROP PROGRESS
Percent Planted, 18 States
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20
2005: Fastest since 1990
1993: Slowest since 1990
'05-'09 Average
2009
2010
Corn planting is
complete – but
look when the
bulk occurred!
Crop condition
is the best ever
for 1st week of
June
CORN CROP CONDITION
Percent rated Good or Excellent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18 7/25 8/1 8/8 8/15 8/22 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/19 9/26
2002: Worst annual
rating since 1990
1994: Best annual
rating since 1990
2010
2009
10-yr average
7. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Planting progress, though . . .
CORN -- YIELDS VS. MID-MAY PLANTINGS
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Year
PctYieldDeviationfromTrend
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PercentPlanted
Yield Deviation
Mid-May Planting
. . . Is NOT a good yield predictor
R2 for yield deviation = 0.3, for yield = 0.17
8. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
June 2010 WASDE forecast by USDA
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
USDA,
June
% Chng.
vs '08-.09
USDA,
June
%Chng
vs. '09-'10
Acres Planted Mil A 86.0 86.5 0.6% 88.8 2.7%
Acres Harvested Mil A 78.6 79.6 1.3% 81.8 2.8%
Yield Bu/A 153.9 164.7 7.0% 163.5 -0.7%
Beginning Stocks Mil Bu. 1624 1673 3.0% 1603 -4.2%
Production Mil Bu. 12092 13110 8.4% 13370 2.0%
Imports Mil Bu. 14 10 -28.6% 10 0.0%
Total Supply Mil Bu. 13729 14793 7.8% 14983 1.3%
Food, Seed & Ind Mil Bu. 1316 1340 1.8% 1360 1.5%
Ethanol for fuel Mil Bu. 3677 4550 23.7% 4700 3.3%
Feed & Resid Mil Bu. 5205 5350 2.8% 5350 0.0%
Exports Mil Bu. 1858 1950 5.0% 2000 2.6%
Total Usage Mil Bu. 12056 13190 9.4% 13410 1.7%
Carryover Mil Bu. 1673 1603 -4.2% 1573 -1.9%
Stocks/Use 13.9% 12.2% -12.4% 11.7% -3.5%
Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu. 4.06 3.45-3.65 -11.3% 3.30-3.90 -2.8%
U.S. CORN SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION - JUNE
9. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Usage - graphically
U.S. CORN USAGE BY CATEGORY
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Million bu.
Ethanol
FSI-Non Ethanol
Feed & Residual
Exports
USDA Forecasts, June 2010
11. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Corn export pace has been SLOW
U.S. CORN EXPORTS
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
S O N D J F M A M J J A
1000 Bu.
2009
2008
Avg. '04-'08
U.S. CORN EXPORTS, PCT. OF ANNUAL
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
S O N D J F M A M J J A
Percent
2009
2008
Avg. '04-'08
12. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
2010 forecast is in line with ‟09 corn demand
U.S. CORN PRICE VS. S/U RATIO
1990-2010
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1998
1999 2000
2001
2002
2003
20042005
2006
2009
2008
2010
2007
1997
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Ending Stocks/Use Ratio
$/bu
Note: Data label is
the year of the
Latest information: 6/10/2010
13. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Implications and risks
Season-average price of $3.60 implies an
Iowa harvest price of $3.10 to $3.20/bu
USDA yield of 163.5 bu./A is already 1.7
bu./A ABOVE the ‟96-‟07 “biotech” trend
Good crop conditions, lagging export pace
may push corn lower through late summer
14. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
But new-crop futures found support . . .
Those “lows”, though,
were at $3.56 for Dec
and $3.88 for March!
. . . At contract-life lows
15. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
How much bottom side is available?
CASH CORN PRICE, OMAHA, WEEKLY
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
$/bu.
Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service
16. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Implications and risks
Season-average price of $3.50 implies an
Iowa harvest price of $3.00 to $3.10/bu
USDA yield of 163.5 bu/acre is 1.7 bu
above the ‟96-‟07 “biotech” trend
Good crop conditions will push corn lower
through late summer
Remember -- Season lows were in Sept in
„‟06, early Oct in ‟07 and July in ‟09
17. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Implications and risks
Season-average price of $3.50 implies an
Iowa harvest price of $3.00 to $3.10/bu
USDA yield of 163.5 bu/acre is 1.7 bu
above the ‟96-‟07 “biotech” trend
Good crop conditions will push corn lower
through late summer
Remember that season lows were in Sept
in „‟06, early Oct in ‟07 and July in ‟09
Strong $US could keep oil prices – and
ethanol prices -- in check
19. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Implications and risks
Season-average price of $3.50 implies an Iowa
harvest price of $3.00 to $3.10/bu
USDA yield of 163.5 bu/acre is 1.7 bu above the
‟96-‟07 “biotech” trend
Good crop conditions will push corn lower
through late summer
Remember that season lows were in Sept in
„‟06, early Oct in ‟07 and July in ‟09
Strong $US could keep oil prices – and ethanol
prices in check
E-15 (or E-11 or E-12) decision
20. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Corn strategies
Given the price outlook for hog --
- “Higher” corn prices can be handled
- Extreme corn prices, as always, cannot!
Start filling storage EARLY in harvest
Having physical corn in hand is normally
advisable – perhaps not a big deal for
2010-11
Buy “insurance” out-of-the-money calls if
your balance sheet is still weak
21. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Soybean planting and early condition
Soybean planting
has been slowed
by rain – now
EQUAL to 2009
Crop rating this
week is RECORD
HIGH at 73%
Good/Exc.
SOYBEAN CROP PROGRESS
Acres Planted, 18 States
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18
Percent
2000: Fastest since 1990
1993: Slowest since 1990
'03-'08 Average
2009
2010
SOYBEAN CROP CONDITION
Percent Rated Good or Excellent
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
6/6 6/20 7/4 7/18 8/1 8/15 8/29 9/12 9/26 10/10
1994 = Best
since 1990
1993 = Worst
since 1990
2009
10-yr Average
2010
22. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
June USDA WASDE – 2X on S/U ratio for ‟11 . . .
2008/09
Est.
USDA,
May
% Chng
vs '08-'09
USDA,
May
% Chng
vs '09-'10
Acres Planted Mil A 75.7 77.5 2.4% 78.1 0.8%
Acres Harvested Mil A 74.7 76.6 2.5% 77.1 0.7%
Yield Bu/A 39.7 44.0 10.8% 42.9 -2.5%
Beginning Stocks Mil Bu. 205 138 -32.7% 185 34.1%
Production Mil Bu. 2967 3359 13.2% 3310 -1.5%
Imports Mil Bu. 15 15 0.0% 10 -33.3%
Total Supply Mil Bu. 3187 3512 10.2% 3505 -0.2%
Crushings Mil Bu. 1662 1740 4.7% 1640 -5.7%
Exports Mil Bu. 1280 1435 12.1% 1350 -5.9%
Seed Mil Bu. 95 91 -4.2% 88 -3.3%
Residual Mil Bu. 11 42 281.8% 66 57.1%
Total Usage Mil Bu. 3049 3323 9.0% 3144 -5.4%
Carryover Mil Bu. 138 185 34.1% 360 94.6%
Stocks/Use 4.5% 5.6% 23.0% 11.5% 105.7%
Nat. Wtd. Avg. Farm Price $/Bu. 9.97 9.50 -8.2% 8.00-9.50 -7.9%
Soybean Oil Price Cents/lb. 32.16 36.00 11.9% 34 - 38 0.0%
Soybean Meal Price $/ton 331.17 295.00 -10.9% 230-270 -15.3%
U.S. SOYBEAN SUPPLY & UTILIZATION - JUNE
2009/10 2010/11
. . . But this summer could still be tight
23. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Bean exports have been robust!!
U.S. SOYBEAN EXPORTS
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
S O N D J F M A M J J A
1000 Bu.
2008
2009
Avg. '04-'08
. . . Could leave supplies tight in July-Aug
24. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Pace relative to annual is slower . . .
U.S. SOYBEAN EXPORTS, PCT. OF
ANNUAL
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
S O N D J F M A M J J A
Percent
2009
2008
Avg. '04-'08
. . . will they exceed expected 1.435 bil. bu.?
25. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Remember where cash SBM went . . .
. . . The past two summers on tight supplies
CASH SBM PRICE, DECATUR, WEEKLY
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
$/ton
26. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
2011 futures are at the BOTTOM . . .
. . . of the apparent “new normal” range
CASH SBM PRICE, DECATUR, WEEKLY
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
$/ton
Decature 48% SBM
6/15/2010 Futures
27. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Factors to consider
As is the case for corn, good weather
could push prices lower in late summer
So could a slowdown in the torrid export
pace
2011 prices: Will Brazil and Argentina
raise another bumper crop?
How wrong can you be with SBM hedged
at $250 or maybe even $230?
28. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
A word about DDGS prices . . .
DDGS $ PER LB / CORN $ PER LB
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ratio
DDGS is competitive with corn in
hog diets in this range
. . . Larger supplies = Pricing “into” hog diets
30. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Summary
Hog supplies have been CLOSE to levels
expected from March H&P
Prices have exceeded levels a) expected
and b) consistent with supply changes
and stable farm-level demand
Conflicting signals:
- Near-record cutout values and hog prices
STRONG packer margins
- “Okay” exports – at least through March
- But SOFT consumer-level demand
31. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Summary (continued)
Feed cost outlook is positive for profits –
depending on weather
Few signs of expansion yet
- Sow slaughter is low but not exceptionally so
as a percent of the BH
- Gilt slaughter frequently above 49.5%
But – anecdotal expansion evidence
- Some repops in the works
- 473k sows cut since Dec ‟07 – Estimate that
1/4th could be repopped – 2% growth
33. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Chicken production capacity is growing . . .
BROILER HATCHERY FLOCK
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Thousand Hens
October 2009:
Smallest flock since
Sept '97 at 52.366
million
April '10: +2.4% Yr/Yr
34. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Current output measures are positive . . .
WEEKLY BROILER EGG SETS
180,000
185,000
190,000
195,000
200,000
205,000
210,000
215,000
220,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Thousand
2010
2009
Average '04-'08
y
YTD 2010: +1.4%
U.S. FI BROILER SLAUGHTER, WEEKLY
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Thous. Hd.
2010
2009
2008
Avg. '03-'07
2010: 3.4%
FI BROILER PRODUCTION, WEEKLY
600.00
650.00
700.00
750.00
800.00
850.00
900.00
950.00
1000.00
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mil. lbs. RTC
2010
2009
Avg. '04-'08
YTD 2010: +4.9%
35. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
But chicken prices are near-record high
BROILER PRICES
12-City Composite, Weekly
68
73
78
83
88
93
JAN
APR
JU
L
O
C
T
Cents Per Pound
Avg.
2004-08
2009
2010
36. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Driven by a resurgence in breast prices . . .
WHOLESALE CHICKEN BREAST PRICES
Skinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
JAN
APR
JU
L
O
C
T
Cents Per Pound
Avg.
2004-08
2009
2010
. . . At least until last week!
37. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Cattle slaughter: Closer and closer to „09
U.S. FI CATTLE SLAUGHTER, WEEKLY
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Thous. hd.
2009
2010
Average, '04-'08
38. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Sharply lower weights have limited output
FI CATTLE CARCASS WEIGHTS
740
750
760
770
780
790
800
810
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Pounds
2009
2010
Avg. '04-'08 FI BEEF PRODUCTION, WEEKLY
350
400
450
500
550
600
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mil. lbs. carc.
2009
2010
Avg '04-'08
YTD 2010: -0.4%
39. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Cutout has been near record-high . . .
. . . But has peaked for the year
600-900# CHOICE BEEF CUTOUT VALUE
75
100
125
150
175
200
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
$/cwt carcass
40. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Beef F/S cuts have fallen, too
WHOLESALE BEEF FULL TENDER PRICES
Musl-On, 5 Pounds and Up, Weekly
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
JAN
APR
JU
L
O
C
T
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.
2004-08
2009
2010
WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICES
Boneless 0x1, Weekly
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
JAN
APR
JU
L
O
C
T
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.
2004-08
2009
2010
WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICES
Boneless, Light, Weekly
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
JAN
APR
JU
L
O
C
T
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.
2004-08
2009
2010
WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES
Fresh, 50% Lean, Weekly
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
JAN
APR
JU
L
O
C
T
$ Per Cwt.
Avg.
2004-08
2009
2010
41. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Impact of competitors
Positive so far! – chicken and beef prices
have been very supportive so far in ‟10
Will be less supportive in months to come
- Beef is in a seasonal price decline but sup-
plies will get tighter, higher fed prices in „11
- Chicken may be at its peak – expansions by
Pilgrim, Sanderson, others in ‟11 and ‟12
Trade developments will help chicken –
nothing has moved to Russia yet
42. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Actual slghtr has been -1% from March H&P
. . and -2.7% from ‟09 -- -4.5% yr/yr coming
FI HOG SLAUGHTER, WEEKLY
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Thous. Hd.
Actual 09
Pred '10
Actual 10
Pred '11
Based on USDA Hogs & Pigs Report, March '10
These 2011 forecasts may
be revised as the impact
of
winter performance is
determined over Q2.
43. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Weights: YTD equal to 2009, +1# recently . . .
. . . larger hogs=more profit, slack space
FI CARCASS WEIGHTS, HOGS
192
194
196
198
200
202
204
206
208
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Pounds
2008
2009
2010
Avg '04-'08
44. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
YTD output is still -3.6% from last year . . .
. . . Says prices should be +8 to 12%
FI PORK PRODUCTION, WEEKLY
280
320
360
400
440
480
520
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Mil. lbs. carc.
2009
2008
2010
Avg '04-'08
YTD 2010: -3.6%
45. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Record-high hog prices -- +30% from „09
U.S. NEG'D NET PRICE, WTD. AVERAGE
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
J F M A M J J A S O N D
$/cwt carcass
2009
2008
2010
Avg '04-'08
46. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Why the discrepancy in prices?
‟09 prices were artificially depressed
- H1N1 aftermath
- High weights driven by unusual weather
- An “unrepresentative base” from which to
compute prices
Positive impact of other species
- Using a price flexibility considers only own-
quantity impacts
- Cross-price elasticities are smaller but not
zero!
47. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Exports +2.2% in April, +1.5% YTD . . .
MONTHLY U.S. PORK EXPORTS
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
J-98 J-99 J-00 J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10
Thous. lbs. carc.
April 2010 exports:
+2.2%from 2009
'04-'07 Trend
48. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Competitors: EU has gained an advantage
U.S. EXPORT COMPETITORS'
CURRENCIES VS. $U.S.
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 10
Euro & $Can/$US
0.9
1.3
1.7
2.1
2.5
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.1
Real/$US
Euro
Canadian $
Real
50. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Big recovery for Japan in April . . .
U.S. PORK EXPORTS BY DESTINATION
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
J-05 J-06 J-07 J-08 J-09 J-10
Million lbs. carc.
JAPAN
CANADA
MEXICO
RUSSIA
HONG KONG +
CHINA
TAIWAN
KOREA
. . .Mexico is still strong, Russia‟s the problem
51. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Pork demand: conflict with hogs & whlsle . .
PORK DEMAND INDEX
80
90
100
110
120
130
70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06
Index, '85=100
Pork Demand
declined 4.2% per
year -- 1979 -1985
2010: -5.3%
. . . I suspect the retail price data!
53. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Profits are back – in a BIG way!!!
PROFIT PER HEAD
IOWA FARROW-TO-FINISH OPERATIONS
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
$/HD.
Source: Estimated Costs and Returns, Dr. John Lawrence, Department of Economics, Iowa State University
54. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
But financial positions are generally weak
ACCUMULATED PROFITS
IOWA FARROW-TO-FINISH OPERATIONS
(Sum of the profits from selling one pig per month since January 1991)
$(200)
$(100)
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Peak in Sept '07 = $786.87
Top to Bottom:
Sept '07 to Feb 2010
Lost $639.68
81% of peak amount
Source: Paragon Economics, Inc. using data from Estimated Costs and Returns, Dr. John Lawrence, Department of Economics, Iowa State
University
March '10 = $156.02
8 years
55. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Sow slaughter is lower – 3 to 4% since April
U.S. SOW SLAUGHTER
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Thousand Hd.
2009
2010
Avg. '04-'08
56. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
But slaughter of US sows is equal to ‟09 . . .
. . . YTD ‟10 = 17.1% vs. 16.9% in „09
FI SLAUGHTER OF U.S. SOWS
As a Percent of Previous Quarter's Breeding Herd
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.90%
1.00%
1.10%
1.20%
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Percent
2009
2010
Avg. '07-'09
57. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
YTD gilt slaughter: +0.1% vs. ‟09, -0.1 vs. „08
GILTS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL
BARROW/GILT SLAUGHTER
47.0
48.0
49.0
50.0
51.0
52.0
53.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Percent
2009
2010
Avg. '00-'09
58. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Futures: Profits of ~$16/hd for all of ‟10 . . .
. . . and nearly $20 for rest of ‟10, $19 for „11
ACTUAL & PREDICTED HOG
PRODUCTION COSTS* AND PRICES
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
$/cwt carcass
Actual Costs per ISU - Carcass
Predicted/Forecast Costs - Carcass
Cash Hog Price
Futures-Implied IA-MN Price
*Based on relationsip between ISU Estimated Costs & Returns data and historic Omaha corn and Decatur soybean meal prices
6/14/10
Forecast 2010 Profits
$15.82/head
59. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Slaughter forecasts
Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge Mil. Hd % Chnge
2009 Year 113.583 -2.7%
2010 Q1 27.631 -3.1% 27.631 -3.1% 27.631 -3.1% 27.631 -3.1%
Q2 26.575 -1.8% 26.395 -2.5% 26.198 -3.2% 26.139 -2.6%
Q3 27.425 -3.5% 27.860 -2.0% 27.807 -2.2% 27.175 -4.4%
Q4 28.775 -2.8% 28.726 -3.0% 28.973 -2.2% 28.184 -2.3%
Year 110.406 -2.8% 110.612 -2.6% 110.609 -2.6% 109.129 -3.9%
2011 Q1 27.493 -0.5% 27.132 -1.8% 27.983 1.3%
Green figures are actual data from USDA. 3/2/10
March 2010 Commercial Slaughter Forecasts
Mizzou LMIC MeyerISU
60. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
Price forecasts
Missouri ISU LMIC Meyer CME
Producer-Sold
Net Carcass
Ia-S. Mn. Live
Price1
National Wtd
Avg. Base Price
National Net
Neg'd Price,
Wtd. Avg.
CME Lean
Hog Futures
6/4/10
2009 Q1 60.43 56.48 58.11 57.22 $58.14**
Q2 61.76 58.39 59.45 58.19 $59.03**
Q3 56.68 52.60 54.01 52.39 $54.18**
Q4 57.64 55.92 55.57 55.81 $56.60**
Year 59.11 55.84 56.87 55.90 $56.98**
2010 Q1 68.60* 70.41* 65.95* 68.75* 69.38**
Q2 71 - 75 77 - 81 74-75 81.98* 80.70**
Q3 73 - 77 72 - 75 70-74 76 - 78 77.51
Q4 66 - 70 61 - 65 67-71 68 - 70 71.04
Year 70 - 73 70 - 73 69-71 73 - 74 74.66
2011 Q1 63 - 67 70-75 66 - 70 70.13
1
Converted to carcass using a yield of 75% *Partial USDA data **Average of CME Lean Hog Index
March 2010 Hogs & Pigs Price Forecasts
61. From information, knowledge
Paragon Economics, Inc.
My expectations
June Hogs and Pigs may show small BH
growth from March but still down 2-3%
from ‟09; 3-4% lower market supplies.
Hog supplies will be supportive of prices
in the upper $70s to low $80s for the rest
of the summer
Q4 prices in the upper $60s
Little or no expansion, 2011 numbers
very close to 2010, prices depend on
demand!