2018 Weather Outlook - Dr. Elwynn Taylor, Iowa State University, From the 2018 World Pork Expo, June 6 - 8, 2018, Des Moines, IA, USA. More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2018-world-pork-expo

1. Weather Outlook
2018 & Beyond
Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University

2. Corn/Soybean Market
• Market 5 Jun 2018
• Expected based on expected yield
and carryover
ELEC. CORN[10] Jun-5
Dec- 404‘0
expect Dec @ $ 550‘ (at harvest)
ELEC. SOYBEANS[10] Jun-5
expect soy/corn ratio (hvst) @1.78

3. •

4. • SOI 3 Jun 2015 = -9.2 (-10 is full strength El Niño)
SOI -4.33

5. High risk Moderate High
Beyond

6. El Niño
Friend of the Midwest farmer.
Better friend of the Argentine farmer (El Nino
tends to be a Christmas event that may or may
not persist through the Midwest growing
season).

7. Strong
La Niña
Moderate
El Niño

8. Summer Temperature 2010
Summer 2017 was slightly dry in corn
belt, but the Summer was not hot.

9. La Niña : Extremes
Cold & Wet APR
Hot MAY

10. El Niño: 70% chance of yield
greater than the trend.
La Niña: 70% chance of yield
smaller than the trend.
Neutral: 52% chance of yield
greater than the trend.

11. (Oct to date)
Extensive Flooding in Northeast IA
October 2009
October 2010
to 2012
.
El Niño
To
La Niña

12. Return to El Niño

13. 158 $5.55
162.3
178
19581
146
165 $3.95
163½ $4.20
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”
US Corn Wisner
as of 7-16-2015
$3.79½
HISTORICAL
El Nino or La Nina or Neutral
not established for 2018

15. 40.5 $13.70
45
50
5923
40
45.5 $9.80
44 $10.15
Example Yield-Price “Risk Wheel”
US Soybean Wisner
as of 7-16-2015
HISTORICAL
El Nino or La Nina or Neutral
not established for 2018

16. Weather Volatility
Climate RISK in Agriculture is
likely to be greater during the
next 20 years (including FL)
Management of RISK is of
increasing importance

17. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif

18. stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
137
Beyond

19. A Little on the USA:
Continental Divide Anomaly
•

20. • Boundary is the Continental
Divide, do NOT expect change

21. DM
•

22. •
About what we would
expect in the North if
there was a constant #
of hurricanes in the
tropic (because of the
multi-decadal cycles in
the North Atlantic.

23. •
Center of the Cornbelt 1950-2012

24. Management of Risk Essential
stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
137
Beyond

25. Elwynn Taylor
Iowa State University
Climatologist
END
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26. Global Warming
•