The primary purpose of this paper is comparing six common models, which were linear, quadratic, Cobb-Douglas, translog, logarithmic, and transcendental, to estimate the supply and demand functions for Saudi Arabian wheat. In addition to estimating the market equilibrium for price and quantity, that led to identifying consumer and producer surplus. Data cover 1990-2014 for all the variables that used to show the effect supply and demand of Wheat. After testing the models using Stepwise and Box-Cox, we came up with the fact that the linear and Cobb-Douglas methods were the best models to show the relationship between variables. On the supply side, we found using the linear model, that wheat price had a negative sign, which represents the impact of government policy number 335. However, in the Cobb-Douglas model, the wheat price had a positive sign. The elasticity coefficient of supply for the wheat price was inelastic. Moreover, the result also showed that all the elasticity coefficients in the supply and demand models were inelastic. The low-income elasticity of demand led the consumption of wheat to increase.
David Orden - The Imperfect Evolution of U.S. Farm PolicyIFPRI SIG
"The Imperfect Evolution of U.S. Farm Policy:From Supply Controls and Government Stocks to Countercyclical Payments to Farmers" - David Orden
SIG 2015 Workshop "Integrating Multi-level Governance into the Post-2015 Development Agenda: Opportunities, Trade-offs, and Implications", Nov 9-10, 2015
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Signature content of MTBiz is its Article of the Month (AoM), as depicted on Cover Page of each issue, with featured focus on different issues that fall into the wide definition of Market, Business, Organization and Leadership. The AoM also covers areas on Innovation, Central Banking, Monetary Policy, National Budget, Economic Depression or Growth and Capital Market. Scale of coverage of the AoM both, global and local subject to each issue.
MTBiz is a monthly Market Review produced and distributed by Group R&D, MTB since 2009.
A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/
anric blatt, lauralouise duffy, global fund exchange, earth wind & fire fund, investing in agriculture, investing in water, investing in the future of energy
The primary purpose of this paper is comparing six common models, which were linear, quadratic, Cobb-Douglas, translog, logarithmic, and transcendental, to estimate the supply and demand functions for Saudi Arabian wheat. In addition to estimating the market equilibrium for price and quantity, that led to identifying consumer and producer surplus. Data cover 1990-2014 for all the variables that used to show the effect supply and demand of Wheat. After testing the models using Stepwise and Box-Cox, we came up with the fact that the linear and Cobb-Douglas methods were the best models to show the relationship between variables. On the supply side, we found using the linear model, that wheat price had a negative sign, which represents the impact of government policy number 335. However, in the Cobb-Douglas model, the wheat price had a positive sign. The elasticity coefficient of supply for the wheat price was inelastic. Moreover, the result also showed that all the elasticity coefficients in the supply and demand models were inelastic. The low-income elasticity of demand led the consumption of wheat to increase.
David Orden - The Imperfect Evolution of U.S. Farm PolicyIFPRI SIG
"The Imperfect Evolution of U.S. Farm Policy:From Supply Controls and Government Stocks to Countercyclical Payments to Farmers" - David Orden
SIG 2015 Workshop "Integrating Multi-level Governance into the Post-2015 Development Agenda: Opportunities, Trade-offs, and Implications", Nov 9-10, 2015
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Signature content of MTBiz is its Article of the Month (AoM), as depicted on Cover Page of each issue, with featured focus on different issues that fall into the wide definition of Market, Business, Organization and Leadership. The AoM also covers areas on Innovation, Central Banking, Monetary Policy, National Budget, Economic Depression or Growth and Capital Market. Scale of coverage of the AoM both, global and local subject to each issue.
MTBiz is a monthly Market Review produced and distributed by Group R&D, MTB since 2009.
A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/
anric blatt, lauralouise duffy, global fund exchange, earth wind & fire fund, investing in agriculture, investing in water, investing in the future of energy
The Realtors® Land Institute and National Association of Realtors® Research Group released the results of their annual Land Markets Survey. The 2018 Land Markets Survey showed sustainable growth in both national land sales and land prices. Survey respondents reported a gain of two percent year-over-year increase in land sales and a two percent increase in land prices between the October 2017 and September 2018 period being measured.
Dr. Lee Schultz - Beef Demand: Clarifying Concepts, Summarizing Status, and D...John Blue
Beef Demand: Clarifying Concepts, Summarizing Status, and Discussing Future Opportunities - Dr. Lee Schultz, Iowa State University, from the 2014 Iowa Cattle Industry Convention, December 8 - 10, 2014, Des Moines IA, USA
More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2014-iowa-cattle-industry-convention
The 2016 Land Markets Survey is a tool for real estate land professionals in all sectors of the business to use for bench-marking and as an informational resource when conducting business published annually by the REALTORS® Land Institute and the National Association of REALTORS® Research Department. This year marks the third consecutive year that the survey has been conducted to reveal current trends and the current state of land markets. The survey includes responses from over six-hundred and fourteen expert land professionals including respondents from across North America.
The 2015 Land Markets Survey is a tool for real estate land professionals in all sectors of the business to use for benchmarking and as an informational resource when conducting business. This year marks the third consecutive year that the survey has been conducted to reveal current trends and the current state of land markets. The survey includes responses from over 615 expert land professionals including respondents from across North America.
The Land Markets Survey is conducted annually each fall by the REALTORS® Land Institute and the Research Department of the National Association of REALTORS® as a tool for real estate land professionals in all sectors of the business to use for bench-marking and as an informational resource when conducting business. The survey is designed to reveal current trends and the current state of land markets across the US. RLI encourages all land real estate agents to participate in the survey to ensure it is as accurate in representing the actual state of the land market each year. For more information about this survey, contact us at 800-441-5263.
A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/
US Shale Oil and Gas Production and the American Economic RecoveryJames Hahn II
The US became the world’s No. 1 hydrocarbon-based energy producer in 2013 thanks to our abundant supply of shale oil and gas. No other country in the history of modern oil production has added more production so quickly than the United States. This points to the unsurpassed ingenuity of American entrepreneurs, as well as the economic benefits a free marketing brings to our country.
Many thanks to Mark J. Perry of the American Enterprise Institute for providing these slides in conjunction with his appearance on The Oil & Gas Digital Marketing Podcast. You can connect with Mark across the interwebs here:
American Enterprise Institute: http://www.aei.org/
Carpe Diem Blog: www.aei-ideas.org/channel/carpe-diem/
Twitter: twitter.com/Mark_J_Perry
The Land Market Survey is a collaboration of the REALTOR® Land Institute (RLI) and the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) that started in 2014.The objective of this survey is to gather information and insights about land transactions among land real estate professionals that can be used as a resource in conducting land business.
‘Indian Agriculture: A Fresh Approach Towards Green Revolution 2.0’IOSR Journals
The agriculture sector which employs more than 55% of the country workforce whereas share of agriculture and allied sector to total GDP is 14.1% (2011-12). The farm sector achieved 3.6% growth during the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12), falling short of the 4% growth target, although it was much higher than growth of 2.5 and 2.4% during 9th and 10th plan respectively. Thus, the sector needs urgent reforms to boost crop yields and private investment in infrastructure so as to motivate farmers and feed the growing population. At the latest Economic Survey (2012-13) points out that “India is at a juncture where further reforms are urgently required to achieve greater efficiency and productivity in agriculture for sustaining growth. There is a need to have stable and consistent policies where markets play a deserving role and private investment in infrastructure is stepped up. An efficient supply chaim that firmly establishes the linkage between retail demand and the farmer will be important”
The Realtors® Land Institute and National Association of Realtors® Research Group released the results of their annual Land Markets Survey. The 2018 Land Markets Survey showed sustainable growth in both national land sales and land prices. Survey respondents reported a gain of two percent year-over-year increase in land sales and a two percent increase in land prices between the October 2017 and September 2018 period being measured.
Dr. Lee Schultz - Beef Demand: Clarifying Concepts, Summarizing Status, and D...John Blue
Beef Demand: Clarifying Concepts, Summarizing Status, and Discussing Future Opportunities - Dr. Lee Schultz, Iowa State University, from the 2014 Iowa Cattle Industry Convention, December 8 - 10, 2014, Des Moines IA, USA
More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2014-iowa-cattle-industry-convention
The 2016 Land Markets Survey is a tool for real estate land professionals in all sectors of the business to use for bench-marking and as an informational resource when conducting business published annually by the REALTORS® Land Institute and the National Association of REALTORS® Research Department. This year marks the third consecutive year that the survey has been conducted to reveal current trends and the current state of land markets. The survey includes responses from over six-hundred and fourteen expert land professionals including respondents from across North America.
The 2015 Land Markets Survey is a tool for real estate land professionals in all sectors of the business to use for benchmarking and as an informational resource when conducting business. This year marks the third consecutive year that the survey has been conducted to reveal current trends and the current state of land markets. The survey includes responses from over 615 expert land professionals including respondents from across North America.
The Land Markets Survey is conducted annually each fall by the REALTORS® Land Institute and the Research Department of the National Association of REALTORS® as a tool for real estate land professionals in all sectors of the business to use for bench-marking and as an informational resource when conducting business. The survey is designed to reveal current trends and the current state of land markets across the US. RLI encourages all land real estate agents to participate in the survey to ensure it is as accurate in representing the actual state of the land market each year. For more information about this survey, contact us at 800-441-5263.
A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/
US Shale Oil and Gas Production and the American Economic RecoveryJames Hahn II
The US became the world’s No. 1 hydrocarbon-based energy producer in 2013 thanks to our abundant supply of shale oil and gas. No other country in the history of modern oil production has added more production so quickly than the United States. This points to the unsurpassed ingenuity of American entrepreneurs, as well as the economic benefits a free marketing brings to our country.
Many thanks to Mark J. Perry of the American Enterprise Institute for providing these slides in conjunction with his appearance on The Oil & Gas Digital Marketing Podcast. You can connect with Mark across the interwebs here:
American Enterprise Institute: http://www.aei.org/
Carpe Diem Blog: www.aei-ideas.org/channel/carpe-diem/
Twitter: twitter.com/Mark_J_Perry
The Land Market Survey is a collaboration of the REALTOR® Land Institute (RLI) and the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) that started in 2014.The objective of this survey is to gather information and insights about land transactions among land real estate professionals that can be used as a resource in conducting land business.
‘Indian Agriculture: A Fresh Approach Towards Green Revolution 2.0’IOSR Journals
The agriculture sector which employs more than 55% of the country workforce whereas share of agriculture and allied sector to total GDP is 14.1% (2011-12). The farm sector achieved 3.6% growth during the 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12), falling short of the 4% growth target, although it was much higher than growth of 2.5 and 2.4% during 9th and 10th plan respectively. Thus, the sector needs urgent reforms to boost crop yields and private investment in infrastructure so as to motivate farmers and feed the growing population. At the latest Economic Survey (2012-13) points out that “India is at a juncture where further reforms are urgently required to achieve greater efficiency and productivity in agriculture for sustaining growth. There is a need to have stable and consistent policies where markets play a deserving role and private investment in infrastructure is stepped up. An efficient supply chaim that firmly establishes the linkage between retail demand and the farmer will be important”
"Food market transformation and improving food security in Asia (within and across countries)”, presented by Kevin Chen, IFPRI/Beijing at the ReSAKSS-Asia Conference, Nov 14-16, 2011, in Kathmandu, Nepal.
Brian Clancey from STATPUB.com shares Global Pulses Import - Export data in this insightful presentation. Pulses production, demand, trends in import-export and future outlook as presented at India Pulses & Grains Associaiton's 'Global Pulses Conclave 2012.
Dr. Steve Meyer - Prices and Profitability: Economic OutlookJohn Blue
Prices and Profitability: Economic Outlook - Dr. Steve Meyer, Express Markets Inc., from the 2017 Iowa Pork Congress, January 25-26, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2017-iowa-pork-congress
The ppt covers the current use of corn for ethanol, the Energy Independence & Security Act and its impact on corn, future prospects for corn starch based ethanol, how fast cellulosic ethanol will develop,which feedstocks will be utilized to produce cellulosic ethanol and risks to biofuels growth.
Dr. Dennis DiPietre - Bacon Quality Dilemma - Production for Pigs and the DDGSJohn Blue
Variability in the Principal Determinants of Cost of Production for Pigs and the DDGS - Bacon Quality Dilemma - Dr. Dennis DiPietre, KnowledgeVentures, LLC, from the 2013 Boehringer Ingelheim Swine Health Seminar, August 16-18, 2013, Wrightsville Beach, NC, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2013-boehringer-ingelheim-carolina-swine-health-seminar
What is the point of small housing associations.pptxPaul Smith
Given the small scale of housing associations and their relative high cost per home what is the point of them and how do we justify their continued existance
Russian anarchist and anti-war movement in the third year of full-scale warAntti Rautiainen
Anarchist group ANA Regensburg hosted my online-presentation on 16th of May 2024, in which I discussed tactics of anti-war activism in Russia, and reasons why the anti-war movement has not been able to make an impact to change the course of events yet. Cases of anarchists repressed for anti-war activities are presented, as well as strategies of support for political prisoners, and modest successes in supporting their struggles.
Thumbnail picture is by MediaZona, you may read their report on anti-war arson attacks in Russia here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/13/burn-map
Links:
Autonomous Action
http://Avtonom.org
Anarchist Black Cross Moscow
http://Avtonom.org/abc
Solidarity Zone
https://t.me/solidarity_zone
Memorial
https://memopzk.org/, https://t.me/pzk_memorial
OVD-Info
https://en.ovdinfo.org/antiwar-ovd-info-guide
RosUznik
https://rosuznik.org/
Uznik Online
http://uznikonline.tilda.ws/
Russian Reader
https://therussianreader.com/
ABC Irkutsk
https://abc38.noblogs.org/
Send mail to prisoners from abroad:
http://Prisonmail.online
YouTube: https://youtu.be/c5nSOdU48O8
Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/libertarianlifecoach/episodes/Russian-anarchist-and-anti-war-movement-in-the-third-year-of-full-scale-war-e2k8ai4
Up the Ratios Bylaws - a Comprehensive Process of Our Organizationuptheratios
Up the Ratios is a non-profit organization dedicated to bridging the gap in STEM education for underprivileged students by providing free, high-quality learning opportunities in robotics and other STEM fields. Our mission is to empower the next generation of innovators, thinkers, and problem-solvers by offering a range of educational programs that foster curiosity, creativity, and critical thinking.
At Up the Ratios, we believe that every student, regardless of their socio-economic background, should have access to the tools and knowledge needed to succeed in today's technology-driven world. To achieve this, we host a variety of free classes, workshops, summer camps, and live lectures tailored to students from underserved communities. Our programs are designed to be engaging and hands-on, allowing students to explore the exciting world of robotics and STEM through practical, real-world applications.
Our free classes cover fundamental concepts in robotics, coding, and engineering, providing students with a strong foundation in these critical areas. Through our interactive workshops, students can dive deeper into specific topics, working on projects that challenge them to apply what they've learned and think creatively. Our summer camps offer an immersive experience where students can collaborate on larger projects, develop their teamwork skills, and gain confidence in their abilities.
In addition to our local programs, Up the Ratios is committed to making a global impact. We take donations of new and gently used robotics parts, which we then distribute to students and educational institutions in other countries. These donations help ensure that young learners worldwide have the resources they need to explore and excel in STEM fields. By supporting education in this way, we aim to nurture a global community of future leaders and innovators.
Our live lectures feature guest speakers from various STEM disciplines, including engineers, scientists, and industry professionals who share their knowledge and experiences with our students. These lectures provide valuable insights into potential career paths and inspire students to pursue their passions in STEM.
Up the Ratios relies on the generosity of donors and volunteers to continue our work. Contributions of time, expertise, and financial support are crucial to sustaining our programs and expanding our reach. Whether you're an individual passionate about education, a professional in the STEM field, or a company looking to give back to the community, there are many ways to get involved and make a difference.
We are proud of the positive impact we've had on the lives of countless students, many of whom have gone on to pursue higher education and careers in STEM. By providing these young minds with the tools and opportunities they need to succeed, we are not only changing their futures but also contributing to the advancement of technology and innovation on a broader scale.
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
Understanding the Challenges of Street ChildrenSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
1. Long-Term and Short-Term
Prospects for Feed Costs
Presented to
The Annual Pork Financial Management Conference
June 17, 2011
Bill Lapp, President
Advanced Economic Solutions™
2. Corn Is King
“When corn sneezes, the other food commodities catch a cold”
Corn
67%Oats
0%
Wheat
11%
Barley
1%
Soybeans
19%
Milo
2%
Corn Represents 2/3rds of
All Crops Produced in the US
(Basis 2009 production data)
May 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 2
3. Importance of Outside Influences on
Agriculture Prices
Corn & Other Ag
Commodities
Global
Economic
Growth
Value of US $
Think Globally, Act Locally
May 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 3
4. The Value of the US Dollar Has
Declined By 1/3rd Since 2002
May 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 4
5. GDP Growth (Real Ave Annual %)
1990-99 2000-09 2010-11
World 2.9 3.5 4.7
China 9.3 9.6 10.0
Developing 3.3 6.0 6.8
US 3.1 1.8 2.9
Advanced 2.7 1.7 2.8
May 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 5
6. China’s Growing Appetite For Food:
- To paraphrase Seinfeld,
“its real, and its spectacular….”
80
90
100
110
120
130
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Chinese Per Capita Meat
Consumption (2000=100)
May 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 6
7. Contributions to Global Demand
Growth: 2000-10
CHINA
Wheat 0%
Rice 5%
Coarse Grains 17%
Soymeal 51%
Vegoil 28%
BIOFUELS
Ethanol (Corn) 46%
Biodiesel (Vegoil) 43%
May 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 7
9. Where Will The Acres Come From?
May 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 9
US, 28.9 ,
27%
Non-US,
80.0 , 73%
1970-80 Acreage Expansion: 109 mm acres (8%)
US, 10.5 ,
19%
Non-US,
44.3 , 81%
2000-2010 Acreage Expansion: 54 mm acres (4%)
10. What To Expect in the Coming
Years…
• Strong global food growth, led by China
– Growth rates that will generally exceed gains in yields
– But the influence of ethanol leveling off
• High prices to encourage more acres planted
– Mostly outside the US
• Generally low stock levels
– Implying more volatility, weather-related price spikes
• US fiscal policy that drives a weaker US $
– Weak dollar EQUALS Higher commodity prices
May 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 10
12. The New Plateau….
May 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 12
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00 1866
1876
1886
1896
1906
1916
1926
1936
1946
1956
1966
1976
1986
1996
2006
AVERAGE U.S. CORN PRICES: (1866-2010)
13. End Stocks – Price Scatter Diagrams
• This was a useful tool for predicting prices, but has become
less meaningful in past 4 years
• All have shifted upward and to the right since 2006/07
June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 13
2007
2006
2008
2009
2010
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
$6.00
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
CornFuturesPrice
Corn Stocks as % of Usage
Annual Corn Prices vs. Ending Corn Stocks-Use Ratio
14. Outlook for Feed Costs
• The overall situation for grains has become “tighter” since mid-2010, and will
remain tight through most of 2011 and into 2012
– Prices will remain generally strong, and volatility will remain high
– Changes in supply/demand will dramatically impact prices
• Ending stocks
– Corn: 10/11F 620 mm (4.6% of usage) ---- 11/12F 631 mm (4.7% of usage) ---- critically tight
– Soybeans: 10/11F 176 mm (5.3% of usage) ---- 11/12F 200 (6.0% of usage) ---- extremely tight
• Key unknowns during the next six months
– Production, based on changes in planted area & yields
– Ethanol demand & policy
– Chinese corn/sb imports
• External factors will remain important drivers of prices in the coming year
– This includes the value of the US dollar and Chinese monetary policy
June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 14
15. US Corn Supply/Demand
June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 15
- Stocks at the end of the 10/11 crop year are forecast to decline to a bare
minimum 4.6%, tightest since mid-90s
- Even with an increase to 91.7mm acres, stocks at the end of 11/12 are
projected to build only modestly
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10F 2010/11F 2011/12F
Proj Proj Proj
Planted Acres 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.7
Harv. Acres 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.3
Yield (bu./acre) 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 160.0
Production 13038 12092 13092 12447 13495
Carryin 1614 1614 1673 1708 620
Total Supply 14362 13730 14773 14170 14128
Fuel 3027 3708 4560 5015 5083
Total FSI (incl Fuel) 4442 5025 5938 6390 6408
Feed & Resid 5859 5187 5142 5340 5239
Exports 2438 1845 1985 1820 1850
TOTAL USE 12738 12057 13065 13550 13497
Ending Stocks 1624 1673 1708 620 631
% of Use 12.7% 13.9% 13.1% 4.6% 4.7%
US Corn Supply/Demand
(Million Acres/Bushels)
16. June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 16
Lowest Stocks-Use Ratio On Record
– for both this year and next year!
5.0%
10.0%
14.9%
19.2%
18.1%
19.5%
16.3%
11.5%
9.4%
18.5%
17.6%
11.6%
12.7%
13.9%
13.1%
4.6% 4.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25% 95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
U.S. Corn Stocks-Use Ratio
(10/11 & 11/12 Forecast)
17. June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 17
- Current Expected: 13.47 B (91.5 planted & 160 BPA) – would imply December corn
futures trading near $6.00-6.50 this fall
- Low Side Estimate: 12.89 B (91.0 planted & 154 BPA) – would imply need for
rationing and December corn trading over $9 later this year
- High Side Estimate: 13.96 B (92.5 planted & 164 BPA) – would imply adequate
supplies & some stock building, lead December corn toward $5.50
18. - Corn acreage was pegged at
92.2 mm in 2011 by USDA
- But a better estimate may be
91.7 mm
Mayl 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 18
93.5
92.2
70
75
80
85
90
95
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
MillionAcres
US Corn Acreage (2011-13 Forecast)
19. - Corn acreage is projected to rise to 91.72 mm in 2011,
0.5 mm below USDA’s Prospective Plantings
June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 19
93.5 91.7
70
75
80
85
90
95
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
MillionAcres
US Corn Acreage (2011-13 Forecast)
20. - CORN Yields: 2010 US corn yields were forecast at 165.0 BPA in August, but
finished 7% lower at 152.8 BPA
- 2011 yields are projected at 160.0 – actual trend depends upon what years
are included in the analysis
Mayl 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 20
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170 77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
bpa
US Corn Yields
2011 Projected at 160.0
2011 TREND
YIELD OPTIONS:
1977-10 157.8
1982-10 159.6
1987-10 161.8
1992-10 161.5
1997-10 162.0
21. - 2010/11 corn demand base forecast to reach 13.55 B (+4%)
- Growth in demand continues to be led by ethanol
- Feed/residual revised up to 5.34 B (+3%) after release of 3/1 stks
June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 21
5564 5795 6158 5995 5545 5859
5187 5142 5340
1587
1900
1918 2133
2125
2438
1845 1985 1820
1345
1369
1383 1415
1420
1415
1317 1378 1375
996
1168
1324 1604 2120
3027
3708
4560
5015
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
MMBushels
Annual Corn Usage (10/11F)
Ethanol
Food Use
Exports
Feed Use
22. June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 22
5015
5234
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000 02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
U.S. Corn Used For Ethanol
Ethanol Grind Has risen sharply,
but growth will slow going forward
23. June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 23
200
250
300
350
400
450
S O N D J F M A M J J A
MMBushelsUsed
(1 Bushel of Corn Produces Approximately 2.70 Gallons of Ethanol)
Sept-Aug Monthly Ethanol Production - Corn Usage (MM Bus)
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
10/11F
Source:Dept of Energy
24. Where Would The Price of Corn Be
without Ethanol?
June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 24
1.60
2.00
2.40
2.80
3.20
3.60
4.00
4.40
4.80
5.20
5.60
6.00
6.40 89/90
91/92
93/94
95/96
97/98
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
Average
Farm Price
Model
W/Out
Ethanol
(Adopted from a model developed by Drs. Steve Meyer & Thomas Elam)
27. In spite of record crops, soybean stocks remain
extremely tight through end of 11/12
June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 27
7.1%
6.4%
4.5%
8.6%
15.6%
18.6%
6.7%
4.5% 4.5%
5.3%
6.0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS-USERATIO
(10/11 & 11/12 Forecast)
28. S American Soybean Crops Continue To Be Revised Up
June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 28
43.5
52.5 51.0 53.0 57.0 59.0 61.0 57.8
73.0 72.5
30.0
35.5 33.0
39.0
40.5
48.8 46.2
32.0
49.5 53.0
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Brazil and Argentina Soybean Production (10/11F)
Argentina
Brazil
29. China Imports Have Risen Dramatically
- Account for 44 mm Acres of Demand -
June 2011 Advanced Economic Solutions 29
16.9
25.8
28.3 28.7
37.8
41.1
50.3
54.5
58.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
Chinese Soybean Imports (10/11 & 11/12 Forecast)
30. Food Inflation is accelerating
- Dealing with a $40 B cost bubble….
May 2011 30Advanced Economic Solutions
Forecast: CPI-Food up 4-6% by December 2011
31. Long-Term and Short-Term
Prospects for Feed Costs
Presented to
The Annual Pork Financial Management Conference
June 17, 2011
Bill Lapp, President
Advanced Economic Solutions™