A presentation conducted by Dr David Cosgrove, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE). Presented on Wednesday the 2nd of October 2013. The Australian Low Carbon Transport Forum (initiated by ARRB, BITRE and CSIRO) was organised to gather knowledge on options for transport emission abatement, with participation of government, industry, academic and other research organisations; aiming to identify options capable of significantly improving transport sector efficiency, estimate possible greenhouse emission reductions for each option, and examine any challenges to achieving their full potential. This interdisciplinary study analysed a wide range of prospects, covering vehicle and fuel technologies, infrastructure improvements and land-use planning, travel demand management, mode shifts and other behavioural change. A novel aggregation process was developed, to estimate the maximal benefits, by 2050, from a full package of measures acting together demonstrating that large reductions in expected emissions should be technically feasible, even with increasing population, without sacrificing access to transport services.

1. ENDORSING PARTNERS
Estimating the emission
reduction potential of
Australian transport
The following are confirmed contributors to the business and policy dialogue in Sydney:
•
Rick Sawers (National Australia Bank)
•
Nick Greiner (Chairman (Infrastructure NSW)
Monday, 30th September 2013: Business & policy Dialogue
Tuesday 1 October to Thursday,
Dialogue
3rd
October: Academic and Policy
Presented by: Dr David Cosgrove, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport
and Regional Economics (BITRE)
www.isngi.org
www.isngi.org

2. Estimating the emission reduction potential of
Australian transport
The Australian Low Carbon Transport Forum
David Cosgrove
ISNGI 2013
University of Wollongong
Session: Transport Networks
2 October 2013

3. The Australian Low Carbon Transport Forum
(ALCTF)
Estimating emission abatement potential for Australian
transport
What is the maximum feasible emission
reduction across the transport sector?
What are some of the measures, policies and
research directions capable of delivering the
desired future outcomes?

4. ALCTF - initiated by project secretariat from:
ARRB Group - Caroline Evans
BITRE - David Cosgrove, David Gargett
CSIRO - Paul Graham

5. ALCTF process:
Series of workshops – elicit expert input
Assessment of possible options for reducing transport
emissions – identify any uncertainties or challenges
Quantification of emission abatement potential – both for
each option individually and as part of an aggregate set
of measures

6. Project process for ALCTF Workshops
Workshop 1
Workshop 2
Workshop 3

7. Total Australian Passenger Task Trends
600
Non-motorised
Domestic aviation
500
Domestic marine
Domestic passenger travel
(in terms of passengerkilometres performed) has
grown almost ten-fold over
the last 60 years...
billion pass-km
Rail
400
Other Road
Bus/Coach
300
Car
200
Business-as-usual
(BAU) projections
100
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Sources: BITRE (2010), Cosgrove (2008), BITRE estimates

8. Relationship between per capita travel and per capita income levels
16.0
Historical
(total metropolitan
travel, 1945-2010)
14.0
Projected
thousand metropolitan pkm per person
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
Urban per capita travel
4.0
Logistic fit
Annual urban pkm per capita (thousands) =
5.46 + 8.19/(1 + (Income/26.71)-5.62)
2.0
0.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
real Australian GDP (2007 dollars, thousands)
Sources: BITRE (2009, 2010), Cosgrove (2011), BITRE estimates

9. National per capita tasks relative to economic activity
Per capita transport generation
Per capita task (thousand pkm or tkm per person)
30
25
20
15
10
National passenger task - 1945 to 2011
5
National freight task - 1955 to 2010
0
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
55.0
65.0
Per capita income (GDP/population) - thousand (2008 $A)
Sources: BITRE (2009, 2010), Cosgrove (2008), BITRE estimates

10. Total BAU Domestic Freight Task Projections
1200
Business-as-usual
(BAU) projections
Air
Sea
1000
Rail
Non-urban road freight
billion tkm
800
Urban road freight
600
400
200
0
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Sources: BITRE (2010), BITRE estimates

11. Modal share of urban transport
90
80
car
per cent of total urban passenger task
heavy rail
70
60
light rail (powered)
walk
motor-bus
50
horse
40
30
20
10
0
Sources: BITRE (2010), Cosgrove (2008, 2011), BITRE estimates.

12. Energy use by Australian domestic transport
Base case
(BAU)
projections
Sources: fuel sales data, BITRE (2010), BITRE estimates.

13. Energy use by Australian domestic transport
Base case
(BAU)
projections
Sources: fuel sales data, BITRE (2010), BITRE estimates.

14. Full-fuel-cycle transport emissions (direct GHGs)
Base case
(BAU)
projections
Sources: BITRE (2010), BITRE estimates.

15. Package of measures
Largest abatement potentials

16. Abatement potential – assessment framework
Table: Abatement estimate example, Electric (inc. plug-in hybrid) light vehicles
Category
Option
Net
adoption
fraction
Market
affected
Market
emissions
(2050 Mt
FFC CO2e)
Savings
fraction
2050 Abatement
(Mt FFC CO2e)
72.9
0.8
35.8
0.8
22.8
Estimated ‘Individual’ abatement potential
Vehicle/Fuel
technology
Electric
cars
0.61
Light
vehicles
‘In sequence’ calculated contribution to aggregate abatement
Vehicle/Fuel
technology
Electric
cars
0.39
Light
vehicles
72.9
Sources: Cosgrove et al. (2012), BITRE estimates.

17. Abatement potential – assessment framework
Table: Abatement estimate example, Biofuels for light vehicles
Category
Option
Net
adoption
fraction
Market
affected
Market
emissions
(2050 Mt
FFC CO2e)
Savings
fraction
2050 Abatement
(Mt FFC CO2e)
72.9
0.65
29.4
0.65
11.8
Estimated ‘Individual’ abatement potential
Vehicle/Fuel
technology
Biofuels
0.62
Light
vehicles
‘In sequence’ calculated contribution to aggregate abatement
Vehicle/Fuel
technology
Biofuels
0.82
Light
vehicles
22.1
Sources: Cosgrove et al. (2012), BITRE estimates.

18. Abatement potentials (2050) – individual options
Sources: Cosgrove et al. (2012), BITRE estimates.

19. Abatement potentials – ‘in sequence’ aggregation
Sources: Cosgrove et al. (2012), BITRE estimates.

20. Cumulative per annum abatement by 2050
Sources: Cosgrove et al. (2012), BITRE estimates.

21. Estimated maximal
greenhouse gas
reductions -
selected transport abatement
options,
considered in isolation and
as an in sequence contribution to
a transport sector aggregate, by
2050

22. Maximal potential abatement, 2050
ALCTF Aggregate Scenario compared to BAU projections
160000
Domestic civil Aviation
140000
Domestic civil Marine
Rail (electric + non-electric)
Heavy road vehicles
120000
Light road vehicles
Reference case total
Gg FFC CO2e
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0

23. References (and further reading from BITRE):
 BITRE (2010) Long-term Projections of Australian Transport Emissions: Base Case 2010, Report for the
Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/sites/climatechange/files/files/climate-change/bitre-transport-modelling-pdf.pdf
 BITRE (2009) Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Projections to 2020, Working Paper 73,
Canberra: BITRE
 Cosgrove, D C (2008) Long-term Emission Trends for Australian Transport, Papers of the 31st Australasian
Transport Research Forum, Gold Coast: ATRF
 Cosgrove, D (2011) Long-term patterns of Australian public transport use, Australasian Transport Research
Forum 2011, Adelaide, Australia, University of South Australia
http://www.atrf.info/papers/2011/2011_Cosgrove.pdf
 Cosgrove, D, Gargett, D, Evans, C, Graham, P and Ritzinger, A (2012) Greenhouse gas abatement potential of
the Australian transport sector: Technical Report, CSIRO
 CSIRO (2012) Greenhouse gas abatement potential of the Australian transport sector: Summary Report, CSIRO
http://www.bitre.gov.au/

24. ATRF 2012
The Australian Low Carbon Transport Forum –
Estimating emission abatement potential for Australian transport
David Cosgrove (BITRE), David Gargett (BITRE),
Caroline Evans (ARRB) and Paul Graham (CSIRO)
Contact:
Dr David Cosgrove
Principal Research Scientist,
Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics
GPO Box 501, Canberra 2601
email: David.Cosgrove@Infrastructure.gov.au
ALCTF project reports: http://www.csiro.au/ALCTF