Presentation by Professor Margaret Bell CBE, Transport Operations Research Group, Newcastle University

1. LEZ Summit – NOx and the City City of Edinburgh Council Business Centre, EDINBURGH25th July 2013
Setting the Scene
Professor Margaret Bell CBE
Transport Operations Research Group
Newcastle University

2. LEZ Summit – NOx and the City City of Edinburgh Council Business Centre, EDINBURGH25th July 2013
This presentation
• Current Situation
• Challenges
• Effect of driver behaviour on emissions
• Effect of tailpipe emissions on roadside
concentrations
• Targets: How are we Doing?
• Magnitude of the challenges?
• Summary
• Final Comment

3. Current Situation
Reduce CO2 emissions by 67% over 2010 values by 2050 (CCC,
2010)
Air Quality: Despite emissions standards nitrogen dioxide levels
continue to rise and UK face fines levied by EU.
Health Impacts: 50,000 deaths brought forward in 2010 due to
poor air quality
Accidents: In UK 1870 fatal accidents in 2010
Congestion is:
a major source of emissions,
destroying planet,
reducing life expectancy and
damaging the economy

4. Challenges
 UK population 62m in 2010 forecast to increase to 80M by 2050
 Requires:
5million new homes,
urban infrastructure- energy; waste ; water - recycling
more food - In next 50 years more food will need to be produced
worldwide than during the past 10,000 years (UN, 2007)
 Reduce CO2 as well as toxic emissions
 Deliver healthy urban environments
 Manage congestion and further reduce accidents
 Stimulate economy and create jobs
SO where do we start?

5. Effect of Driver Behaviour on
Emissions

6. Characterising UK
vehicle emissions
Chassis
dynamometer (e.g.
Bath University)
Highly Instrumented vehicle
(e.g. Leeds and Southampton
University UK

7. RETEMM (Real-world
Traffic Emissions
Monitoring and
Modelling)
Project funded by UK
EPSRC at Leeds University
40 drivers (20 male, 20
female)
Ages 21-63 years
10 loops of the same
0.6km circuit
Data collection

8. (a) Carbon dioxide (b) Hydrocarbons (c) Oxides of Nitrogen
Driver 7 `
Driver 31
Over revving & Sloppy Gear changes more polluting
Engine Speed versus Vehicle Speed

9. Real-World Network
Driving Emissions: Petrol
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
NOx
(g/km)
HC (g/km)
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.60.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
EURO0
EURO1
EURO2
EURO3
EURO4
NOX-HC
Aromatic & Olefin are
predominant HC in O3
formation.
Most drivers do
NOT meet
targets for NO2
Ozone forming
potential increasing
Diesel mainly emit
NOx and Particulates
More efficient engines
lower CO2 & NO – BUT
burned PM10 to PM2.5
Increase in NH4
Daham (2006), Li et al (2006)

10. Effect of tailpipe emissions on
roadside concentrations

11. Archive Data Analysis:
AURN – Newcastle
Regeneration Filters
Primary NO2
increases
Euro 3 Diesels-
(>PM2.5)
Reduce VKT and
promote public
transport and non
motorised modes

12. Futures Project - London
(Black Cabs) – NO / Smoke
Particle Traps
fitted - elevated
emissions NO2
FUTURES
project
55,000 tailpipe
emissions

13. London - NO2 mg/m3
Marylebone (outside RUC) Westminister (inside RUC)
NO2
Oct 97 – Oct 11
NO2
July 01 – Oct 11
Level and Duration increased since ~2005
mg/m3mg/m3

14. BUS
STATION
METRO
STATION
Causes of Local Pollution
Pedestrian Activity
Bus congestion

15. Targets - How are we doing?

16. Carbon Emissions
How are we doing?
2013 20501990
? 80% of 1990
2010
….
1998 20111987
2 Regions  600 links  900 links
SCOOT
Leicester SCOOT database
20...
Model change in UK Fleet emissions over time
Flow and
Congestion
2050
67% of 1990
2005

17. Carbon Emissions
1998-2011
• Traditional emission models - reduction in 2008 of about
10% over 1998
• Complex congestion related emission model – by 2008
increase of about 3% over 1998 data
• After the recession the complex congestion related
emission model – by 2011 recession fall of 5% over 1998.

18. Magnitude of the Challenge?

19. EPSRC: SUE2 4M Project
Demographics Survey
•Respondents only
–Male - 288
–Female – 287
•Altogether across households
–Male - 763
–Female - 764
Employment status
Full Time 242
Part Time 68
Family/home 27
Retired 138
Unemployed 41
•Other 59
•
Income
Mean - 21240
Median - 18200
Lower Quartile - 7800
Upper Quartile - 29100
Collaboration Newcastle with De Montfort, Sheffield Leeds and Loughborough Universities

20. Cross thematic Insights
Annual
emissions
CO2
equivalent
Cumulative stored CO2
Medium and Long trips highest transport emissions
Gas
Electricity
Travel
Energy used in home is twice that saved by not going into work
Much potential for growing food in gardens Energy recovery from waste

21. 87 Hshld (15%)
-67% Transport
-17% Building
-16% TRA+BUIL
287 Hshld (50%)
-96% Transport
-60% Building
-67% TRA+BUIL
Enormity of the problem of
reaching carbon targets
How do we reach our carbon targets of 67% reduction over 2010
levels by 2050?
The 50% of our highest emitters cannot travel (96%) and not use any
energy in the household (60%) to meet targets (67%)

22. Summary
• Technology is not solving the problem and diesel incentives
to purchase diesel vehicles pollutants higher for longer
• Eco driving would deliver measureable reductions
• Over the period 1998-2008 all the benefits new
technologies eroded and increase of 3% in eCO2 recession
delivered drop of 10%
• Congestion, high volumes of buses largely empty during the
day and pedestrian conflict avoidable emissions
• Green Travel Plans do not stack-up if heating (cooling) are
used at home
The 50% of our highest emitters cannot travel (96%) and not
use any energy in the household (60%) to meet targets (67%)

23. Final Comment
• Scientific Evidence AFFIRMS the way western world
lives is UNSUSTAINABLE and FUNDAMENTAL changes
are needed
• Non motorised travel options need to be the NORM
• An essential STEP-CHANGE needed – decades to deliver
• QUALITY of LIFE does not have to be COMPROMISED
• Environmentally sustainable cities are:
– Healthier
– Pleasanter places to live
Require a VISION – long term goals
Path to Follow
SHORT TERM goals to deliver incrementally
INNOVATION
driven by
BUSINESS

24. Acknowledgement
 EPSRC and DfT for funding of the research discussed
 Colleagues at the Transport Operations Research
Group, Newcastle University for commitment and
dedication to good quality research.
 Tyne and Wear for support in kind to providing data
etc.
• Please take opportunities to reference the research
presented. Consult the Reference list on the Personal
webpage at the University www.newcastle.ac.uk
or
• Contact Margaret Bell directly.

25. Thank You for Listening
Any Questions?

26. LEZ Summit – NOx and the City City of Edinburgh Council Business Centre, EDINBURGH25th July 2013
School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
Cassie Building
Newcastle University
Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU
Prof Margaret Bell CBE
Science City Professor in Transport and
Environment, margaret.bell@ncl.ac.uk
Professor Bell was honoured as CBE,
Commander of the British Empire
for her services to Sustainable
Transport in 2006 and is the Chair of
the ITS(UK) Smart Environment
Interest Group which was launched
at 13th ITS World Congress in London
in 2001
Professor Bell’s has almost forty years of research
experience which embraces monitoring, modelling
and management of traffic, emissions, air quality,
noise and exposure; evaluation of health and carbon
emissions impacts.

27. References
This Presentation is mainly based on the Invited Plenary Paper :
Bell M.C. “Scientific Evidence to Support Business Models to Drive Future Sustainable Transport Solutions” Invited
Plenary Session at the 45th UTSG Conference. 2013, Oxford.
To be submitted for publication. Any comments and feedback is welcome. Other relevant references
• Lomas KJ, Bell M, Firth SK, Gaston KJ, Goodman P, Leake JR, Namdeo A, Rylatt M, Allinson D, Davies ZG,
Edmondson JL, Galatioto F (5%), Guo L, Hill G, Irvine K, Taylor SC, Tiwary A. 4M: Measurement; modelling;
mapping and management – the carbon footprint of UK cities. In: ISOCARP Low Carbon Cities. The Hague,
Netherlands: ISOCARP Review Series 2012
• Galatioto F., Bell M.C,. “Exploring the processes governing roadside pollutant concentrations in urban street
canyon”, Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-012-1428-5
• Bell MC, Franco P, Galatioto F, Rhys-Tyler G, Namdeo A, Tiwary A, Goodman P, ―SECURE project: the route to
delivering transport sustainability‖. Proceedings 1st Intern. Conf. on urban sustainability and resilience, Nov
2012, London.
• Rhys-Tyler GA, Legassick W, Bell MC. The significance of vehicle emissions standards for levels of exhaust
pollution from light vehicles in an urban area. Atmospheric Environment 2011, 45(19), 3286-3293.
• Boddy JWD, Smalley RJ, Goodman PS, Tate JE, Bell MC, Tomlin AS. The spatial variability in concentrations of
a traffic-related pollutant in two street canyons in York, UK—Part II: The influence of traffic characteristics.
Atmospheric Environment 2005, 39(17), 3163-3176.
• Carslaw DC, Ropkins K, Bell MC. Change-point detection of gaseous and particulate traffic-related pollutants at
a roadside location. Environmental Science & Technology 2006, 40(22), 6912-6918.
• Carslaw DC, Beevers SD, Bell MC. Risks of exceeding the hourly EU limit value for nitrogen dioxide resulting
from increased road transport emissions of primary nitrogen dioxide. Atmospheric Environment 2007, 41(10),
2073-2082.
• Bell MC. Environmental Factors in Intelligent Transport Systems. IEE Proceedings: Intelligent Transport
Systems 2006, 153(2), 113-128.

28. References
This Presentation is mainly based on the Invited Plenary Paper :
Bell M.C. “Scientific Evidence to Support Business Models to Drive Future Sustainable Transport
Solutions” Invited Plenary Session at the 45th UTSG Conference. 2013, Oxford.
To be submitted for publication. Any comments and feedback is welcomed
Other relevant references
• Bell M.C., Galatioto F., Chakravartty, Namdeo A. “Investigating the Underlying Trends in NO2
Levels in UK Cities”, proceeding 45th UTSG Conference. 2-4 Jan 2013, Oxford.
• Franco P, Bell MC, Galatioto F. “Investigating sustainable transport policies for solid household
waste disposal: Case study in the North East of England”, proceeding 45th UTSG Conference.
2013, Oxford.
• Cairns J. “Technology, Alternative Fuels and Low Emissions Vehicles: Win-Win for Air Quality
and Climate Change” 44th UTSG Conference, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Jan 2012
• Galatioto F., Bell M.C., Shripad V.,” Impact of virtual mobility on carbon emission: case of
internet shopping”, 44th UTSG Conference, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, Jan 2012
• Matar H., Namdeo A., Bell M.C., Galatioto F., ”Personal exposure to outdoor air pollution near a
urban road‖, 44th UTSG Conference, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, January 2012
• Bell M.C., Galatioto F., Hill G.,”Comprehensive analysis of traffic congestion over a decade to
evaluate carbon emissions impacts of transport policy”, 43rd UTSG Conference, Open
University, Milton Keynes, Jan 2011
• Bell M.C., Galatioto F., Hill G.,”Using real-time aggregated data sets to continually improve
prediction by neural networks‖, 42nd UTSG Conference, University of Plymouth, Jan 2010

29. References
• Franco P., Bell M.C., Galatioto F., “The role of electronic vehicle and fare data for carbon
accounting in the delivery of sustainable bus operation”, proc 19th ITS World Congress, Vienna,
Oct 2012
• Galatioto F., Bell M.C., Hill G., Rose P., Hodges N., “Evaluation of carbon reduction traffic
measures employing a novel approach to micro-simulation modelling of real-world emissions”,
proc 19th ITS World Congress, Oct 2012
• Rose P., Bell MC., Galatioto F., Hodges N., “Using integrated air quality data through UTMC to
better inform traffic operators and other stakeholders”, proc. 19th ITS World Congress, Vienna,
Oct 2012
• Bell M.C, Galatioto F., Hill G., Rose P. ”Using an integrated data platform to evaluate the
environmental impact of events and ITS interventions”, proceeding 18th ITS World Congress,
Oct 2011, Orlando (Florida),
http://itswc.confex.com/itswc/WC2011/webprogram/Paper2916.html
• Galatioto F., Bell M.C, Hodges N., James P., Hill G., ‖Integration of low-cost sensors with UTMC
for assessing environmental impacts of traffic in urban area‖, proceeding 18th ITS World
Congress, Oct 2011, Orlando,
http://itswc.confex.com/itswc/WC2011/webprogram/Paper2901.html
• Bell M.C., Galatioto F.,Hill G., Hodges N., Neasham J., ―Application of low cost pervasive
monitoring to validate models and assess performance of ITS technology implemented to
improve the environment‖, proc. 8th European ITS Congress 2011, June, Lyon.
http://eprint.ncl.ac.uk/pub_details2.aspx?pub_id=179348
• Bell M.C, Galatioto F., Hill G., Namdeo A., ―Modelling environmental impacts of traffic using a
th