This document discusses a case study of a project to develop a data link technology inside a CT scanner. It describes the risks and uncertainties involved, including the harsh EMC environment potentially causing high error rates, reliance on a single supplier for PCB manufacturing, complex IP landscape, and lack of experience integrating technologies into CT scanners. The strategies to manage these risks focused on closing uncertainty gaps through early testing, establishing contingency plans, researching patents, and breaking down tasks to refine estimates. The opportunity of enabling higher data rates for future CT scanner generations was also discussed.

1. Risk, Uncertainty and the Unknown
-a case study: Technology Acquisition for a Data link inside a CT scanner

2. Derek Wright CEng MIET APMP MAPM
Project Manger - Chemring Technology Solutions
Member of the APM Risk SIG Committee
• Worked as a Project Manager in Chemring Technology Solutions, a R&D
company, for 9 years
• Chemring Technology Solutions operates at the leading edge of technology
often breaking new ground, so the PMs working there regularly run Projects
of high uncertainty and risk
• Particularly specialises in Product Development; pulling technology research
through to a capability delivery
• Part of the group within Chemring Technology Solutions that promotes Risk
Management best practice
• Member of the APM Risk SIG Committee
• Helped prepare the Risk Management section of the APM BoK 6th Edition
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3. Introduction
• Consider Risk and Uncertainty Definitions
• Background on CT Scanners
• Background on Data Link Project
• Project Risks
• Different Categories of Risk and how they were managed
• Review of Risk and Uncertainty
• Questions and discussion
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4. Risk and Uncertainty Definitions
There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know.
There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know
we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we
don't know.
Donald Rumsfeld, US Secretary for Defence
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5. Risk and Uncertainty Definitions
A Risk event is an uncertain event or set of circumstances that, should it
occur, will have an effect on achievement of one or more of the project’s
objective.
APM – Project Risk Analysis and
Management Guide
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6. Background on CT Scanners
• X-Ray Computed Tomography (CT) Scan or Computed Axial Tomography
(CAT) Scan
• Medical Imaging
• Uses Digital Geometry Processing to construct a 3d image of the body from
X-Ray slices.
• Use of CT scans has dramatically increased in the last two decades with
100’s million scans being done worldwide each year.
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7. Background on Data Link Project
• Customer was a producer of CT Scanners amongst other high end medical
equipment.
• They had developed the next generation of X-ray equipment to allow fast
imaging and better resolution.
• They now had a bottle-neck in the data transport from the moving to the
stationary part, the technology used had reached its limit.
• So they need to develop the component to do the power transfer to the
moving part and the data transfer from the moving part.
• We were asked to develop the Data Transfer technology. The old scheme
had topped out at 1Gbit/s, the next system needed 4Gbit/s and a roadmap to
10Gbit/s and 40Gbit/s was desired.
• This was our first major project in the medical electronics domain!
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8. Project Risks
• Threats
• The proposed system may have too higher error rate in the presence of the
harsh EMC environment of the CT scanner.
• There is only one company in the UK capable of making the PCB.
• The IP landscape of CT Scanners is very complex; there is a risk that we will
infringe some one else's patent or avoid a patent we don’t need to.
• We have no experience of integrating a technology into a CT Scanner, we
don’t know how long it will take.
• Opportunities
• If the technology goes beyond current generation and is scalable to higher
data rates then we enable the generations beyond of CT Scanners.
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9. The proposed system may have too higher error
rate in the presence of the harsh EMC
environment of the CT scanner.
• Threat
• Unknown
• Risk closed when live test conducted – all Power supplies and X-Ray
equipment on, system rotating and Error rate test conducted over data link.
• Strategy – closing the uncertainty gap
• Measurement of EMC environment
• Simulation of design in modelled EMC environment
• Early testing of Prototypes using interfering sources
• Early testing of installed system using interfering sources
• Testing of installed system all on but not rotating.
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10. There is only one company in the UK capable of
making the PCB.
• Threat
• Probability Risk – Company goes out of business, gets overloaded, doesn’t
want to work with us, gives poor service.
• Project Risk closed once all deliveries are made of the PCB.
• Strategy – Mitigation & Contingency
• Establish good working relationship at all levels with the PCB company.
• Make sure they are aware of the overall project and on-going opportunities for
production volume.
• Identify and open discussions with none UK companies who could also do
this work.
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11. The IP landscape of CT Scanners is very complex;
there is a risk that we will infringe some one else's
patent or avoid a patent we don’t need to.
• Threat
• Unknown
• Risk will never be completely closed
• Strategy – closing the uncertainty gap and transfer
• Conduct IP/Patent searches ourselves.
• Consult with Customer’s (domain aware) IP/Patent dept.
• ….to improve our collective understanding of the IP landscape
• Document and hand-off to the customer
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12. We have no experience of integrating a technology
into a CT Scanner, we don’t know how long it will take.
• Threat
• Unknown / estimating risk
• Closed once the data link technology has been integrated to the CT Scanner.
• Strategy – closing the uncertainty gap, risk provision
• Break down the task and estimate what we can
• Hold workshop with customer experts to understand tasks we are not able to
estimate.
• Build up risk provision (time & budget) based on task as it is understood at
bid
• Monitor and update as more info becomes available during project.
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13. If the technology goes beyond current generation and
is scalable to higher data rates then we enable the
generations beyond of CT Scanners.
• Opportunity
• Unknown
• Risk closed once technology implemented and installed running at higher
rates. (not done during project)
• Strategy – closing the uncertainty gap and transfer
• Investigate what changes would be required to reach higher data rates
• Model behaviour of system and changes at higher data rates
• Prototype higher rate system
• Document proposal and challenges and transfer to customer at project
closure
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14. Review of Risk and Uncertainty
• Uncertainty and unknowns are a key factor of Risk
• Managing Uncertainty is part of Risk Management
• Sometimes the uncertainty is itself the risk – understanding this is key
• Risk can be managed by closing the uncertainty gap …...
…..…and the art is to do this as quickly as possible
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