Risk Management
CASE STUDY
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Eng. Ahmed Said
Content:
1. Introduction
2. Risk Sources
3. Roles and Responsibilities
4. Plan Risk Management
5. Identify Risks
6. Qualitative Risk Analysis
7. Quantitative Risk Analysis
8. Risk Responses
9. Control Risk
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General Hospital
‫المشروع‬ ‫عن‬ ‫نبذة‬
‫اﻷرض‬ ‫مساحة‬ ‫اجمالى‬):٣١٠٦٨٦٫٢٣(‫مربع‬ ‫متر‬
‫للمشروع‬ ‫اﻹجمالية‬ ‫القيمة‬:٤٧٠‫﷼‬ ‫مليون‬
‫المشروع‬ ‫مدة‬
◦‫اﻷولي‬ ‫المرحلة‬٣٦‫شهر‬
◦‫الثانية‬ ‫المرحلة‬٢٤‫شهر‬
‫سعة‬ ‫مستشفى‬ ‫مشروع‬ ‫المباني‬ ‫مساحة‬ ‫تبلغ‬٢٠٠‫سرير‬١١٦٠٠٠‫مربع‬ ‫متر‬)Built
Up(‫يلي‬ ‫مما‬ ‫وتتكون‬ ً‫ا‬‫تقريب‬:
‫الرئيسي‬ ‫المبنى‬–‫الخدمات‬ ‫مبنى‬–‫عدد‬٢‫حارس‬ ‫مبني‬-‫من‬ ‫ويتألف‬ ‫العام‬ ‫الموقع‬١-‫ثﻼثة‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷسوار‬
‫للمستشفى‬ ‫رئيسية‬ ‫بوابات‬٢-‫اﻷرضية‬ ‫المياه‬ ‫خزانات‬٣-‫الديزل‬ ‫خزانات‬٤-‫اﻷوكسجين‬ ‫خزان‬ ‫غرفة‬
٥-‫المسال‬ ‫الغاز‬ ‫خزانات‬٦-‫الخضراء‬ ‫الساحات‬+‫للسيارات‬ ‫مواقف‬+‫الهيليكوبتر‬ ‫للطائرة‬ ‫مدرج‬
‫المشروع‬ ‫مراحل‬
‫اﻻولى‬ ‫المرحلة‬:‫مساحة‬ ‫على‬)١٤٦٥١٨٫٩(‫مربع‬ ‫متر‬)‫التعميد‬ ‫تم‬(
‫اﻻرضى‬ ‫الدور‬ ‫الرئيسى‬ ‫المبنى‬) :١٤٣٢٨(‫م‬٢‫اﻷدوار‬ ‫إجمالي‬:٣٦٠٠٠‫م‬٢
‫اﻻرضى‬ ‫الدور‬ ‫الخدمات‬ ‫مبنى‬) :٢٢١٩٫٣٤٨(‫م‬٢
‫اسفلت‬)‫مواقف‬+‫طرق‬) : (٥٩٤٣٢٫٤٥(‫م‬٢
‫خضراء‬ ‫مساحات‬) :٥٦٣٠٣(‫م‬٢
‫ارصفة‬) :١٤٢٣٦٫١١(‫م‬٢
‫الثانية‬ ‫المرحلة‬):‫اسكان‬ ‫مبانى‬+‫مواقف‬+‫خضراء‬ ‫مساحات‬+‫اسوار‬(‫مساحة‬ ‫على‬)١٦٤١٦٧٫٣(‫متر‬
‫مربع‬)‫التعميد‬ ‫تم‬.(
1.1 Introduction – Understanding The Risk:
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Definitions:
Risk or Risk event
A general definition of “risk” in this context is:
Risk is an uncertainty that matters; it can affect project objectives negatively
or positively.
The uncertainty may be about a future event that may or may not happen
and the unknown magnitude of the impact on project objectives if it does
happen.
Thus, a “risk” is characterized by its probability of
occurrence and its uncertain impact on project objectives.
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Definitions:
Uncertainty
An uncommon state of nature, characterized by the absence of any
information related to a desired.
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‫و‬‫هي‬ ‫مجاﻻت‬ ‫خمسة‬ ‫في‬ ‫اليقين‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫يظهر‬:
١.‫اليقين‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫و‬ ‫التباين‬)‫الثقة‬ ‫معيار‬(‫التسعير‬ ‫و‬ ‫بالتقديرات‬ ‫المرتبط‬‫المشروع‬ ‫نهاية‬ ‫حتي‬ ‫ثباته‬ ‫و‬.
٢.‫حول‬ ‫الشكوك‬‫البيئة‬‫واﻹمداد‬ ‫والنقل‬‫المشروع‬ ‫الي‬ ‫الوصول‬ ‫زمن‬ ‫و‬.)‫المع‬ ‫رجال‬/‫الدرب‬(
٣.‫التصميم‬ ‫حول‬ ‫الثقة‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫و‬ ‫الغموض‬)‫اﻹحتياجات‬ ‫و‬ ‫الهدف‬.(
٤.‫حول‬ ‫الغموض‬‫الزمن‬ ‫و‬ ‫التمويل‬ ‫و‬ ‫وفرتها‬ ‫و‬ ‫الموارد‬.
٥.‫المصلحة‬ ‫أصحاب‬ ‫و‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫في‬ ‫المشاركة‬ ‫اﻷطراف‬ ‫بين‬ ‫اﻷساسية‬ ‫العﻼقات‬ ‫بشأن‬ ‫اليقين‬ ‫عدم‬)‫المسئولي‬ ‫و‬ ‫المتطلبات‬‫ات‬.(
‫من‬ ‫المزيد‬ ‫الي‬ ‫نمضي‬ ‫ونحن‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫ﻷداء‬ ‫أساسية‬ ‫أهمية‬ ‫أكثر‬ ‫تصبح‬ ‫فإنها‬ ‫عموما‬ ‫ولكن‬ ،‫مهمة‬ ‫اليقين‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫من‬ ‫المناطق‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫كل‬
‫مواجهتها‬ ‫علي‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫التفاصيل‬.
1.2 Risk Sources
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External risk: Building permits???!!!!
 Schedule risk: Annual Hurricanes/Dust storms and which will last for two
months a year, which cause a fall in labour productivity due to lower working
hours during that period as well as material losses.
 Cost risk: because the Cladding may arrive later than planned, we may need
to extend our lease of scaffolding on the staging area at a cost of $ 200K.
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Source of RISK (In Project):
 Quality risk: the concrete may not dry on a short time During winter
weather causing us to not meet our quality standard of concrete strength.
Resource risk: Formwork/steel Fixing Sub-Contractor will leave due to
Late of steel supply which caused long time of tasks This Sub-Con more
qualified/safe time more than others.
 Customer satisfaction ( stakeholder satisfaction ) risk: there
is a chance that the customer will not be happy with XYZ delay also Quality.
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Source of RISK (In Examples):
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11.1 Plan Risk
Management
• Plan Risk Management is the process of
defining how to conduct risk
management activities for a project.
• The key benefit of this process is it
ensures that the degree, type, and
visibility of risk management are
commensurate with both the risks and
the importance of the project to the
organization.
• A Risk Plan should be documented early
in the project, during the Planning phase.
• The plan is undertaken prior to the
Execution phase to ensure that any risks
identified are addressed during the
Execution phase itself.
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‫المخاطر؟‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫لخطة‬ ‫العريضة‬ ‫الخطوط‬ ‫هي‬ ‫ما‬
What is a Risk Plan Outlines?
‫المشروع‬ ‫لمخاطر‬ ‫العريضة‬ ‫الخطوط‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫تشمل‬
‫المتوقعة‬.
‫من‬ ‫لكﻼ‬ ‫اتخاذها‬ ‫يجب‬ ‫التي‬ ‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫من‬ ‫مجموعة‬ ‫توفر‬:
‫الحدوث‬ ‫من‬ ‫الخطر‬ ‫منع‬.
‫منها‬ ‫مفر‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تأثير‬ ‫من‬ ‫الحد‬.
‫الخطة‬ ‫تشمل‬ ،‫تحديدا‬ ‫أكثر‬ ‫وبشكل‬:
١.‫المشروع‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ‫المتوقعة‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لكافة‬ ‫كاملة‬ ‫قائمة‬.
٢.‫المخاطر‬ ‫ﻹدارة‬ ‫الﻼزمة‬ ‫المعامﻼت‬ ‫و‬ ‫المستندات‬ ‫و‬ ‫النماذج‬.
٣.‫طريقة‬‫ت‬ ‫أن‬ ‫المتوقع‬ ‫من‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫كل‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫تقييم‬‫حدث‬.
٤.‫ك‬ ‫عند‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫على‬ ‫التأثير‬ ‫درجات‬ ‫تصنيف‬ ‫و‬ ‫تقييم‬‫خطر‬ ‫ل‬
‫الواقع‬ ‫في‬ ‫يحدث‬ ‫أن‬ ‫يمكن‬.
٥.‫سنتعا‬ ‫التي‬ ‫الشاملة‬ ‫اﻷهمية‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷولوية‬ ‫درجات‬ ‫تصنيف‬‫بها‬ ‫مل‬
‫المخاطر‬ ‫كل‬ ‫تققيم‬ ‫عند‬.
٦.‫وقوع‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫من‬ ‫للحد‬ ‫الوقائية‬ ‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫من‬ ‫مجموعة‬ ‫تشمل‬
‫المتوقعة‬ ‫المخاطر‬.
٧.‫تأثير‬ ‫من‬ ‫للحد‬ ‫المحتملة‬ ‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫من‬ ‫مجموعة‬ ‫وهناك‬
‫المتوقعة‬ ‫المخاطر‬.
٨.‫المشروع‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫عمليات‬ ‫و‬ ‫مراحل‬.
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‫المخاطر؟‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫ننشأ‬ ‫و‬ ‫نستخدم‬ ‫متي‬
‫المخاطر‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫تكون‬ ‫أن‬ ‫يجب‬‫التخطيط‬ ‫مرحلة‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ،‫المشروع‬ ‫من‬ ‫مبكر‬ ‫وقت‬ ‫في‬ ‫موثقة‬.
‫خ‬ ‫لما‬ ‫طبقا‬ ‫تنفيذ‬ ‫مرحلة‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ‫معالجتها‬ ‫سيتم‬ ‫تحديدها‬ ‫تم‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫أن‬ ‫لضمان‬ ‫التنفيذ‬ ‫مرحلة‬ ‫قبل‬ ‫الخطة‬ ‫عمل‬ ‫يتم‬‫له‬ ‫ططنا‬.
‫عل‬ ‫والسيطرة‬ ‫المراقبة‬ ‫اجل‬ ‫من‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫عملية‬ ‫في‬ ‫فعال‬ ‫بشكل‬ ‫تساهم‬ ‫سوف‬ ،‫الخطة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫توثيق‬ ‫تم‬ ‫أن‬ ‫بعد‬ ‫الفور‬ ‫على‬‫ى‬
‫المشروع‬ ‫في‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫وتأثير‬ ‫احتمال‬.....‫الرؤية‬ ‫نمتلك‬ ‫ﻷننا‬.
The Risk Management Process is terminated only when the Execution phase of the project is completed
(i.e. just prior to Project Closure).
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Our Form (Organizational Process Assets)
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Risk Form:
Our Form (Organizational Process Assets)
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Risk Register:
‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫إعداد‬RMP
docxRisk Management Plan Project Template.…………
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‫به‬ ‫القيام‬ ‫يجب‬ ‫الذي‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫على‬ ‫تطغى‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫أن‬ ‫يجب‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬)‫ت‬ ‫إذا‬‫م‬
‫مخاطر‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫تحديد‬=‫الﻼعودة‬.(
‫تنفق‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫أيضا‬ ‫ولكن‬ ،‫تماما‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫منخفضة‬ ‫العناصر‬ ‫تتجاهل‬ ‫ﻻ‬‫الكثير‬
‫عليهم‬ ‫الوقت‬ ‫من‬.
‫المخاطر‬ ‫لجميع‬ ‫تحديد‬ ‫لديك‬ ‫أن‬ ‫تفترض‬ ‫ﻻ‬.
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‫إحذر‬
‫إعداد‬ ‫عند‬/‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫تطوير‬....
11.2 Identify Risks
• Identify Risks is the
process of determining
which risks may affect the
project and documenting
their characteristics.
• The key benefit of this
process is the
documentation of existing
risks and the knowledge
and ability it provides to
the project team to
anticipate events.
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1. Plan Risk Management
2. Identify Risks
3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
5. Plan Risk Responses
6. Control Risks
‫المخاطر‬ ‫تحديد‬
)Risk Form(
•‫تعريف‬:
•‫تحديد‬‫المخاطر‬‫هو‬‫تقرير‬‫و‬‫توقع‬‫ما‬‫قد‬‫يحدث‬‫و‬‫يمكن‬‫أن‬‫يؤثر‬‫على‬‫أهداف‬‫المشروع‬‫وكيفي‬‫ة‬
‫حدوث‬‫هذه‬‫اﻷمور‬.
•‫أهم‬‫مخرجات‬‫هذ‬‫المرحلة‬-‫سجل‬‫مخاطر‬‫المشروع‬-‫الذي‬‫يوثق‬‫المخاطر‬‫وخصائصها‬.
•‫يتم‬‫تعديل‬‫سجل‬‫المخاطر‬‫في‬‫وقت‬‫ﻻحق‬‫عن‬‫طريق‬‫التحليل‬‫النوعي‬‫و‬‫الكمي‬‫للمخاط‬،‫ر‬‫و‬
‫يشمل‬‫محددا‬‫ت‬‫اﻻستجابة‬،‫للمخاطر‬‫وعمليات‬‫المراقبة‬‫و‬‫السيطرة‬‫علي‬‫المخاطر‬.
•‫تحديد‬‫المخاطر‬‫هو‬‫عملية‬‫تكرارية‬‫يتم‬‫تحديثها‬‫و‬‫من‬‫خﻼلها‬‫تدمج‬‫مخاطر‬‫جديدة‬‫قد‬‫تص‬‫بح‬
‫معروفة‬/‫متوقعة‬‫مع‬‫تقدم‬‫المشروع‬‫خﻼل‬‫دورة‬،‫حياته‬‫و‬‫المخاطر‬‫التي‬‫تم‬‫تحديدها‬‫ساب‬‫قا‬‫قد‬
‫تكون‬‫انتهت‬‫او‬،‫نحيت‬‫ويمكن‬‫أن‬‫تطرأ‬/‫نتوقع‬‫حدوث‬‫مخاطر‬‫أخرى‬.
‫يتم‬‫إدخال‬‫المعلومات‬‫في‬‫سجل‬‫المخاطر‬.
‫يتم‬‫تحديد‬‫مسئول‬‫من‬‫ضمن‬‫فريق‬‫إدارة‬‫المخاطر‬)PRMT(‫لكل‬‫واحد‬‫من‬‫تلك‬‫المخاطر‬
‫الذي‬‫يصبح‬‫المسئول‬‫عنه‬Risk Owner.
‫يتم‬‫مراجعة‬‫سجل‬‫المخاطر‬‫وتحديثه‬‫في‬‫جميع‬‫مراحل‬‫المشروع‬.
‫يجوز‬‫لمدير‬‫المشروع‬‫ان‬‫يكون‬‫احد‬‫خياراته‬‫استنباط‬‫سجﻼت‬‫المخاطر‬‫اﻷولية‬‫ﻷجز‬‫اء‬‫او‬
‫مراحل‬‫المشروع‬‫و‬‫توظيفها‬‫و‬‫دمجها‬‫في‬‫إعداد‬‫سجل‬‫المخاطر‬‫للمشروع‬.
‫مع‬،‫ذلك‬‫يتم‬‫إعداد‬/‫تطوير‬‫سجل‬‫مخاطر‬‫المشروع‬‫خﻼل‬‫إجتماع‬PRMT.
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Risk Register
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Risk Categories (Or RBS)
Construction
Analytics
Complexity and
Interface
Process
Quality
Performance &
reliability
Design
Business
Benefits
Requirement
Technology
Acceptance &
Deliverable
External
Subcontractors
& Suppliers
Regularity
Customer
Government
Law
Market
Organizational
Project
Dependencies
Resources
Budgeting &
Funding
Prioritization
Staffing Quality
& Sufficiency
Environment
Weather
Topography
Issues
Project
Management
Scope
Culture
Estimating
Planning &
Controlling
Communication
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11.3 Perform
Qualitative Risk
Analysis
• Perform Qualitative Risk
Analysis is the process of
prioritizing risks for further
analysis or action by assessing
and combining their probability
of occurrence and impact.
• The key benefit of this process
is that it enables project
managers to reduce the level of
uncertainty and to focus on
high-priority risks.
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1. Plan Risk Management
2. Identify Risks
3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
5. Plan Risk Responses
6. Control Risks
٠٦-‫النوع‬ ‫التحليل‬‫ي‬
‫للمخاطر‬
•‫يستند‬‫التحليل‬‫النوعي‬‫على‬‫جداول‬‫اسمية‬‫أو‬‫وصفية‬‫لوصف‬‫احتمال‬‫وعواق‬‫ب‬
‫المخاطر‬.
‫تعتبر‬‫اول‬‫عمليات‬‫الفحص‬‫و‬‫التنقيح‬‫و‬‫التصفية‬‫للمخاطر‬‫او‬‫الفرص‬
‫و‬‫يمكن‬‫اﻹعتماد‬‫عليها‬‫عندما‬‫يطلب‬‫إجراء‬‫تقييم‬‫سريع‬‫و‬‫إجراءات‬‫تصحيحي‬‫ة‬.
‫في‬‫هذه‬‫المرحلة‬‫سيتم‬‫تقييم‬‫احتمال‬‫وقوع‬‫كل‬‫المخاطر‬‫التي‬‫تم‬‫تحديدها‬‫وتأثيره‬،‫ا‬‫و‬‫يقوم‬
‫فريق‬‫العمل‬‫مستعينا‬‫بالخبرات‬‫الﻼزمه‬‫بتحديد‬‫المدخﻼت‬.
‫تحديد‬‫أولويات‬‫المخاطر‬‫التي‬‫تم‬‫تحديدها‬‫سابقا‬‫ضمن‬‫خطة‬‫ادارة‬‫المخاطر‬‫و‬‫تعريف‬
‫المخاطر‬.
‫فريق‬‫ادارة‬‫المخاطر‬‫يمكنه‬‫تحسين‬‫أداء‬‫المشروع‬‫بشكل‬‫فعال‬‫من‬‫خﻼل‬‫التركيز‬‫عل‬‫ى‬
‫المخاطر‬‫ذات‬‫اﻷولوية‬‫العالية‬.
‫ضرورة‬‫إستمرار‬‫و‬‫تكرار‬‫إعادة‬‫النظر‬‫في‬‫التحليل‬‫النوعي‬‫للمخاطر‬‫خﻼل‬‫دورة‬‫حياة‬
‫المشروع‬‫يساهم‬‫في‬‫التحديث‬‫المستمر‬‫للتقييم‬‫و‬‫اﻹستعدادات‬.
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DEFINITIONS OF IMPACT AND
PROBABILITY RATINGS (as agreed)
Rating --> Very Low Low Medium/
Moderate
High Very High
Cost Impact of Threat
(CO + COS)
Insignificant
cost increase
<5% cost
increase
5-10% cost
increase
10-20% cost
increase
>20% cost
increase
Cost Impact of
Opportunity (CO + COS)
Insignificant
cost reduction
<1% cost
decrease
1-3% cost
decreaseRisk
Managment
Project
Template.docx
3-5% cost
decrease
>5% cost
decrease
Schedule Impact of
Threat
Insignificant
slippage
<1 month
slippage
1-3 months
slippage
3-6 months
slippage
>6 months
slippage
Schedule Impact of
Opportunity
Insignificant
improvement
<1 month
improvement
1-2 months
improvement
2-3 months
improvement
>3 months
improvement
Probability 1–9% 10–39% 40–59% 60–89% 90–99%
7/28/2017 27
Probability and Impact Ratings for
Projects
‫ال‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫يسرد‬‫سابق‬‫المعتمد‬ ‫تصنيفنا‬)‫القياسي‬(‫التأث‬ ‫درجات‬ ‫و‬ ‫الخطر‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫لمستويات‬‫ير‬
‫المحتملة‬.‫ال‬ ‫او‬ ‫للتكلفة‬ ‫الحقيقية‬ ‫القيم‬ ‫استعملنا‬ ‫اذا‬ ‫بكثير‬ ‫اسهل‬ ‫التقييم‬ ‫هذا‬ ‫يكون‬ ‫قد‬‫بوحدة‬ ‫وقت‬
‫الزمن‬ ‫او‬ ‫العملة‬.
‫دليل‬ ‫يعتبر‬ ‫التأثير‬ ‫لمستويات‬ ‫التصنيف‬ ‫و‬ ‫التقييم‬ ‫هذا‬‫تصنيف‬ ‫يشمل‬ ‫و‬ ‫عملي‬‫اﻹحتم‬‫للمخاطر‬ ‫اﻻت‬
‫المتوقعة‬‫يعتبر‬ ‫و‬‫حيا‬ ‫أثناء‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تقييم‬ ‫في‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫لفريق‬ ‫دستور‬ ‫و‬ ‫ثابت‬ ‫إطار‬ ‫بمثابة‬‫المشروع‬ ‫ة‬.
‫المخاطر‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫إعداد‬ ‫تم‬Risk Management Plan‫الج‬ ‫و‬‫الوقت‬ ‫و‬ ‫بالعملة‬ ‫يحدد‬ ‫دول‬
‫مستوي‬ ‫لكل‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫لهذا‬ ‫مناسبا‬ ‫يراه‬ ‫ما‬ ‫الزمني‬.‫ا‬ ‫و‬ ‫المستويات‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫صﻼحية‬ ‫بشرط‬‫ﻵثار‬
‫المشروع‬ ‫كامل‬ ‫علي‬.
‫تشمل‬ ‫و‬ ‫تتعدي‬ ‫إنما‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷنشطة‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷعمال‬ ‫بنود‬ ‫تخص‬ ‫التي‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫علي‬ ‫فقط‬ ‫اﻵثار‬ ‫تقف‬ ‫ﻻ‬‫ايضا‬
‫انواعه‬ ‫بكل‬ ‫الخارجي‬ ‫التمويل‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻹتمان‬ ‫علي‬ ‫التأثير‬‫دراسة‬ ‫تستوجب‬ ‫التي‬ ‫و‬Payback Period
& Break Even point.
Cash flow
7/28/2017 28
Probability and Impact Matrix
(Heat Map)
7/28/2017 29
‫لون‬‫المنطقة‬‫يدل‬‫على‬‫مستوي‬‫أولوية‬‫مواجهة‬‫المخاطر‬:‫فالمنطقة‬‫الحمراء‬‫تعني‬‫أهم‬‫ية‬
‫كبيرة‬‫واﻷصفر‬‫هو‬‫أهمية‬‫متوسطة‬،‫واﻷخضر‬‫هو‬‫أهمية‬‫منخفضة‬.
‫على‬‫سبيل‬،‫المثال‬‫احد‬‫المخاطر‬‫احتمال‬"‫معتدل‬=Medium"‫وذا‬‫تأثير‬"‫عالي‬=High"
‫يقع‬‫في‬‫المنطقة‬‫الحمراء‬.)‫درجة‬‫المخاطرة‬‫فيها‬‫هي‬٣×٤=١٢(.
‫يتم‬‫تحديد‬‫درجات‬‫اﻹستجابة‬‫تبعا‬‫لدرجة‬‫المخاطرة‬The Risk Score.
Risk Register
7/28/2017 30
11.4 Perform
Quantitative Risk
Analysis
• Perform Quantitative Risk
Analysis is the process of
numerically analyzing the
effect of identified risks on
overall project objectives.
7/28/2017 31
1. Plan Risk Management
2. Identify Risks
3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
5. Plan Risk Responses
6. Control Risks
‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬
Quantitative Risk
Analysis
١-‫التعريف‬
‫عند‬ ‫عددية‬ ‫بقيمة‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لتقدير‬ ‫وسيلة‬ ‫هو‬ ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬‫المشروع‬ ‫أن‬ ‫و‬ ‫حدوثها‬ ‫احتمال‬
‫أهداف‬ ‫يلبي‬ ‫سوف‬‫ه‬‫الزمن‬ ‫و‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫حيث‬ ‫من‬.
٢-‫التحليل‬ ‫أهداف‬‫الكمى‬‫للمخاطر‬
‫المحددة‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫أهداف‬ ‫تحقيق‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫ويقيم‬ ‫للمشروع‬ ‫المحتملة‬ ‫النتائج‬ ‫يقيس‬.
‫الكمي‬ ‫النهج‬ ‫يوفر‬‫رقمية‬ ‫محددات‬‫عدم‬ ‫هناك‬ ‫يكون‬ ‫عندما‬ ‫القرارات‬ ‫ﻻتخاذ‬‫م‬ ‫امر‬ ‫في‬ ‫شك‬ ‫و‬ ‫تأكد‬‫ا‬.
‫و‬ ،‫للتحقيق‬ ‫وقابلة‬ ‫واقعية‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫يخلق‬‫إعادة‬‫الجدول‬‫ة‬‫الزمني‬‫ل‬ ‫افضل‬ ‫بشكل‬ ‫ة‬‫نطاق‬‫العمل‬‫تحقيق‬ ‫و‬
‫اﻷهداف‬.
7/28/2017 32
‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬
Quantitative Risk
Analysis
‫يتم‬ ‫كيف‬‫اعداد‬‫التحليل‬‫الكمى‬‫للمخاطر‬
،‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬ ‫إجراء‬ ‫أجل‬ ‫من‬‫توفر‬ ‫من‬ ‫ﻻبد‬،‫عالية‬ ‫جودة‬ ‫ذات‬ ‫بيانات‬
‫وهذا‬‫يخلق‬‫متطور‬ ‫مشروع‬ ‫نموذج‬‫ﻹنتاج‬‫المشروع‬ ‫لمخاطر‬ ‫أولوية‬ ‫قوائم‬‫بشكل‬
‫نموذجي‬)‫إجراء‬ ‫من‬ ‫عادة‬‫ال‬‫النوعي‬ ‫تحليل‬‫للمخاطر‬(
‫التحليل‬ ‫من‬ ‫اﻻنتهاء‬ ‫عند‬ ‫و‬‫الكمى‬‫للمخاطر‬:
‫تحديد‬ ‫نستطيع‬‫اﻻجابة‬‫هذه‬ ‫على‬‫اﻻسئله‬‫؟‬
‫ماهي‬‫إحتماﻻت‬‫المحدد‬ ‫الموعد‬ ‫في‬ ‫الحالية‬ ‫الخطة‬ ‫تحقيق‬‫و‬/‫الميزاني‬ ‫ضمن‬ ‫أو‬‫ة‬
‫المقدرة؟‬
‫الطوارئ‬ ‫احتياطي‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫حاجة‬ ‫هناك‬ ‫هل‬‫و‬‫الوقت‬ ‫من‬ ‫مطلوب‬ ‫كم‬‫و‬‫؟‬ ‫المال‬
7/28/2017 33
Risk Register
7/28/2017 34
7/28/2017 35
Quantitative Risk Analysis
Tools and Techniques
1. Data Gathering and representation techniques
• Interviewing
• Probability distribution
2. Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques
• Sensitivity analysis
)‫مثﻼ‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫على‬ ‫تأثيرها‬ ‫و‬ ‫بخطوه‬ ‫المخاطرخطوه‬ ‫انواع‬ ‫دراسة‬:‫العماله‬ ‫أسعار‬ ‫زيادة‬ ‫مخاطر‬(
• Expected monetary value analysis ( EMV )
)‫سيناريوهات‬ ‫عده‬ ‫طريق‬ ‫عن‬ ‫المتوقعه‬ ‫المالية‬ ‫القيمه‬(
• Modeling and simulation
)‫مونتكارلو‬ ‫طريق‬ ‫عن‬ ‫المحاكاه‬ ‫و‬ ‫النمذجة‬(
٠٧–‫ادوات‬‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬
 Quantitative risk and opportunity
assessment provides a numerical value
measuring the effect expected from risks
and opportunities. (ICB)
 Monte Carlo analysis and decision trees
and scenario planning are examples of
powerful quantitative risk and
opportunity assessment techniques.
(ICB)
7/28/2017 36
Decision Tree (Expected Monitory Value)
– Choosing Sub-Contractor
7/28/2017 37
Hiring Sub-C. For
Insufficient Labor
Low Bidder
Bad
Qualification
High Bidder
Reliable
Delay 12 Days +
Good Quality
On Time + Bad
Quality
60%
10%
Delay 4 Days
On Time
20%
80%
Decision EMV = -2440
(The Larger Of -3240 & -2440)
110 - 114.6= -4.6K -2760
110 – 110 = 0
110 – 115.2 = -4.2K
110 – 112 = -2K
0
-840
-1600
EMV =-3240
EMV = -2440
Outcome
Probability
• Over Head 800SR/Day
• Budget Cost = 110 SR/CM
• Selling Price = 125 SR/CM
• Qt’y = 1000 CM
Delay 7Days + Bad
Quality
30%
110 – 111.6 = -1.6K -480
105 SR/CM
112 SR/CM
114.6=800x12+105x1000
111.6=800x7+105x1000+1000repair
111.6=800x4+112x1000+0 repair
Modeling and simulation and
Probability Distribution
7/28/2017 38
QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS VERSUS
QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS
QUALITATIVE QUANTITATIVE
Risk-Level Project-Level
Subjective evaluation of probability
and impact
Probabilistic estimates of time and cost
Quick and easy to perform Time consuming
Text analysis Data analysis
No special software or tools required May require specialized tools
7/28/2017 39
11.5 Plan Risk
Responses
• Plan Risk Responses is the process
of developing options and actions
to enhance opportunities and to
reduce threats to project
objectives.
• The key benefit of this process is
that it addresses the risks by their
priority, inserting resources and
activities into the budget,
schedule and project management
plan as needed.
7/28/2017 40
٠٨–‫اﻹستحابة‬
‫للمخاطر‬
‫للمخاطر‬ ‫اﻻستجابة‬
‫أ‬ ‫من‬ ،‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫وتحديد‬ ،‫اﻻستراتيجية‬ ‫الخيارات‬ ‫وضع‬ ‫عملية‬ ‫هو‬‫جل‬
‫المشروع‬ ‫ﻷهداف‬ ‫التهديدات‬ ‫من‬ ‫والحد‬ ‫الفرص‬ ‫تعزيز‬.
‫تن‬ ‫اجل‬ ‫من‬ ‫المسؤولية‬ ‫لتحمل‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫فريق‬ ‫أعضاء‬ ‫تهيئة‬ ‫يتم‬‫فيذ‬
‫المخاطر‬ ‫و‬ ‫التهديدات‬ ‫مواجهة‬ ‫و‬ ‫لﻼستجابة‬ ‫المحدد‬ ‫اﻹستراتيجية‬.
‫للمخاطر‬ ‫اﻻستجابة‬ ‫تتضمن‬:
‫المخاطر‬ ‫اولويات‬ ‫و‬ ‫سريعة‬ ‫استجابة‬ ‫تستدعي‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تحديد‬.
‫المخاطر‬ ‫لكل‬ ‫اﻷفضل‬ ‫اﻹستراتيجية‬ ‫تحديد‬.
‫المخاطر‬ ‫عن‬ ‫للمسئول‬ ‫إجراء‬ ‫تعيين‬Risk Owner‫وقوعها‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫من‬ ‫للحد‬
‫و‬/‫خطر‬ ‫كل‬ ‫آثار‬ ‫أو‬.‫للمشروع‬ ‫المتاحة‬ ‫بالخبرات‬ ‫يستعين‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ويمكن‬.
‫اﻷمر‬ ‫لزم‬ ‫إذا‬ ،‫إضافية‬ ‫مساندة‬ ‫و‬ ‫دعم‬ ‫طلب‬.
‫العمل‬ ‫فريق‬ ‫لدي‬ ‫المقبولة‬ ‫اﻹستراتيجية‬ ‫كانت‬ ‫إذا‬)PRMT(‫الخطر‬ ‫قبول‬ ‫هي‬
ACCEPTED )(‫خطة‬ ‫ﻹعداد‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫عن‬ ‫للمسئول‬ ‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫أحد‬ ‫يندب‬ ‫أن‬
‫للطوارئ‬.
7/28/2017 41
11.6 Control Risks
• Control Risks is the process of
implementing risk response plans, tracking
identified risks, monitoring residual risks,
identifying new risks, and evaluating risk
process effectiveness throughout the
project.
• The key benefit of this process is that it
improves efficiency of the risk approach
throughout the project life cycle to
continuously optimize risk responses.
• Risk monitoring and control continues for
the life of the project.
• The list of project risks changes as the
project matures, new risks develop, or
anticipated risks disappear. Risk ratings
and prioritizations can also change during
the project lifecycle.
7/28/2017 42
‫تعريف‬:
‫المشروع‬ ‫على‬ ‫تأثيرها‬ ‫و‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تعقب‬ ‫مستوى‬ ‫هو‬-‫مراقبة‬
‫عليها‬ ‫والسيطرة‬‫خﻼل‬‫المشروع‬ ‫حياة‬ ‫دورة‬
‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫فريق‬ ‫مهام‬:
‫وتشمل‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫فريق‬ ‫مهام‬PRMT‫يلي‬ ‫ما‬ ‫استعراض‬:
‫وإضاف‬ ،‫حديثا‬ ‫للمخاطرالناشئة‬ ‫اﻻستجابة‬ ‫إجراءات‬ ‫وتخطيط‬ ‫وتحليل‬ ‫تحديد‬‫إلى‬ ‫تها‬
‫المخاطر‬ ‫سجل‬.
‫فعاليتها‬ ‫وتقييم‬ ،‫اﻻستجابة‬ ‫إجراءات‬ ‫تنفيذ‬ ‫مراجعة‬.
،‫الحالية‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تقييم‬ ‫إعادة‬‫ال‬ ‫و‬‫المفعو‬ ‫سارية‬ ‫تزال‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫الفرضيات‬ ‫من‬ ‫تحقق‬‫وتعديل‬ ،‫ل‬
‫ال‬‫سابقة‬.
٠٩–‫الرقاب‬ ‫و‬ ‫السيطرة‬‫ة‬
‫المخاطر‬ ‫علي‬
‫المرحلة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫في‬ ‫الضرورة‬ ‫حسب‬ ‫التقييم‬.
‫عن‬ ‫المسئول‬ ‫دعم‬ ‫و‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫معالجة‬ ‫و‬ ‫لمواجهة‬ ‫إضافية‬ ‫إجراءات‬ ‫تعيين‬
‫التنفيذ‬.
‫فرصة‬ ‫انعدمت‬ ‫أو‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫علي‬ ‫تأثيرها‬ ‫إنقضي‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إستبعاد‬‫حدوثها‬
‫مست‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫وصلت‬ ‫قد‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫في‬ ‫المتبقية‬ ‫آثارها‬ ‫تعتبر‬ ‫التي‬ ‫تلك‬ ‫أو‬‫مقبول‬ ‫وى‬.
‫لعملية‬ ‫اﻷخرى‬ ‫المقاصد‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫مراقبة‬ ‫و‬ ‫السيطرة‬‫تحدي‬ ‫هي‬‫د‬:
‫إمكانية‬ ‫و‬ ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫التقييم‬ ‫حاﻻت‬ ‫في‬ ‫تغيير‬ ‫يوجد‬ ‫هل‬‫استبعاده‬‫ا؟‬
‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫وإجراءات‬ ‫سياسات‬ ‫اتباع‬ ‫يجري‬ ‫هل‬‫ﻻ؟‬ ‫ام‬
‫الي‬ ‫احتياج‬ ‫يوجد‬ ‫هل‬‫تعديل‬‫خطة‬‫طوارئ‬ ‫احتياطي‬‫ا‬‫لمو‬ ‫الزمني‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫و‬ ‫لتكلفة‬‫ا‬‫ئ‬‫مة‬
‫تقييم‬‫الوضع‬‫الحالي‬‫ل‬‫لمخاطر‬‫؟‬.
‫تنطوي‬‫عملية‬‫و‬ ‫السيطرة‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫مراقبة‬/‫اختيار‬ ‫على‬ ‫الفرص‬/‫التغ‬‫الي‬ ‫يير‬
‫وتنفيذ‬ ،‫البديلة‬ ‫اﻻستراتيجيات‬‫خطط‬‫اﻹجر‬ ‫واتخاذ‬ ،‫بديلة‬ ‫طوارئ‬‫اءات‬
‫المشروع‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫وتعديل‬ ،‫التصحيحية‬.
7/28/2017 43
Risk Review and Updating
7/28/2017 44
Lessons Learned
7/28/2017 45
‫عندما‬‫ينتهي‬‫او‬‫يستبعد‬‫اي‬‫من‬‫المخاطر‬،‫فإن‬‫فريق‬
‫العمل‬PRMT‫يتوجب‬‫عليه‬‫مراجعة‬‫تاريخ‬‫كل‬‫خطر‬‫لتسجيل‬‫م‬‫ا‬
‫هي‬‫الدروس‬‫المستفادة‬‫بشأن‬‫عمليات‬‫إدارة‬‫المخاطر‬
‫المستخدمة‬.
‫و‬‫يلزم‬‫فريق‬‫العمل‬‫أن‬‫يسأل‬‫نفسه‬:
"‫ما‬‫الذي‬‫كان‬‫يتوجب‬‫علينا‬‫عمله‬‫على‬‫نحو‬‫مختلف‬‫و‬‫لماذا؟‬"
‫و‬‫من‬‫ثم‬‫فإن‬‫مدير‬‫مخاطر‬‫المشروع‬‫عليه‬‫إجراء‬‫المراجعة‬
‫الدورية‬‫لكافة‬‫الدروس‬‫المستفادة‬‫مع‬‫فريق‬‫العمل‬PRMT.
References:
1. ICB - IPMA (International Competence Baseline Version 3.0).
2. Developing the Risk Register-Ahmed Said.
3. Practice Standard for Project Risk Management - PMI.
4. Scalable Project Risk Management- Carlton Team.
5. PMBOK 5th Edition.
6. Risk Management And Construction-Roger Flangan.
7/28/2017 46
‫ن‬‫الجميع‬ ‫به‬ ‫ينفع‬ ‫ان‬ ‫رجو‬-‫تحيات‬ ‫خالص‬ ‫مع‬‫نا‬
7/28/2017 47
‫للتطبيق؟‬ ‫جاهز‬ ‫انت‬ ‫هل‬
Project Risk Management Plan
Date of Issue 03/01/1437 (Hijri) – 03/11/2015 (Gregorian)
General Report Form PMO-FM-RP-06(00)
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 2 of 9
Contents
1  Introduction 3 
1.1  Purpose of the Risk Management Plan 3 
2  Risk management Procedure 3 
2.1  Process 3 
2.2  Roles and Responsibilities 3 
2.3  Risk Identification 3 
2.4  Risk Analysis 4 
2.5  Risk Response Planning 5 
2.6  Risk Monitoring, Controlling and Reporting 5 
2.7  Risk Contingency Budgeting 6 
3  Tools and Practices 6 
4  Closing a Risk 6 
5  Lessons Learned 6 
6  Attachment A 7 
6.1  Risk Management Plan Approval 7 
7  Attachment B 8 
7.1  Register of Reference Documents 8 
8  Attachment C 9 
8.1  Schedule of Key Terms 9
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 3 of 9
1 Introduction
1.1 Purpose of the Risk Management Plan
A risk is an event or condition that, if it occurs, could have a positive or negative effect on a
project’s objectives. Risk Management is the process of identifying, assessing, responding to,
monitoring and controlling, and reporting risks. This Risk Management Plan defines how risks
associated with the project will be identified, analysed, and managed. It outlines how risk
management activities will be performed, recorded, and monitored throughout the lifecycle of the
project and provides templates and practices for recording and prioritizing risks by the project
management team.
2 Risk management Procedure
2.1 Process
The Planning Manager working with the project team will ensure that risks are actively identified,
analysed, and managed throughout the life of the project. Risks will be identified as early as
possible in the project so as to minimize their impact. The steps for accomplishing this are outlined
in the following sections. The Planning Manager will serve as the Risk Manager for this project.
2.2 Roles and Responsibilities
Role Responsibilities
Risk Manager The Risk Manager is a member of the Integrated Project Team (IPT).
The Risk Manager determines if the Risk is unique, identifies risk
interdependencies across projects, verifies if risk is internal or external to
project and assigns risk classification and tracking number. During the
life of the project, they continually monitor the projects for potential risks.
Integrated Project
Team
The IPT is responsible for identifying the risks, the dependencies of the
risk within the project, the context and consequence of the risk. They
are also responsible for determining the impact, timing, and priority of
the risk as well as formulating the risk statements.
Risk Owner(s) The risk owner determines which risks require mitigation and
contingency plans; he generates the risk mitigation and contingency
strategies and performs a cost benefit analysis of the proposed
strategies. The risk owner is responsible for monitoring and controlling
and updating the status of the risk throughout the project lifecycle. The
risk owner can be a member of the project team.
Other Key
Stakeholders
The other stakeholders assist in identifying and determining the context,
consequence, impact, timing, and priority of the risk.
2.3 Risk Identification
Risk identification will involve the project team, appropriate stakeholders, and will include an
evaluation of environmental factors, organizational culture and the project management plan
including the project scope, schedule, cost, or quality. Careful attention will be given to the project
deliverables, assumptions, constraints, WBS, cost/effort estimates, resource plan, and other key
project documents.
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 4 of 9
2.3.1 Methods for Risk Identification
The following methods will be used to assist in the identification of risks
- Brainstorming
- Interviewing
- SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats)
- Diagramming
A Risk Management Register will be generated and updated as needed and will be stored
electronically in the project library.
2.4 Risk Analysis
All risks identified will be assessed to identify the range of possible project outcomes. Risks will be
prioritized by their level of importance.
2.4.1 Qualitative Risk Analysis
The probability and impact of occurrence for each identified risk will be assessed by the Risk
Manager, with input from the project team using the following approach:
Probability
- Very High - Greater than 80% probability of occurrence
- High – Between 60% and 80% probability of occurrence
- Medium – Between 30% and 60% probability of occurrence
- Low – Between 10% and 30% probability of occurrence
- Very Low - Below 10% probability of occurrence
Impact
- Very High - Risk that has the potential to have a critical impact on project cost, project schedule
or performance
- High – Risk that has the potential to greatly impact project cost, project schedule or
performance
- Medium – Risk that has the potential to slightly impact project cost, project schedule or
performance
- Low – Risk that has relatively little impact on cost, schedule or performance
- Very Low - Risk that has negligible impact on cost, schedule or performance
This information will be input into the Risk Management Register for each identified risk. Risks that
fall within the RED and YELLOW zones will have risk response plan which may include both a risk
response strategy and a risk contingency plan.
2.4.2 Quantitative Risk Analysis
Analysis of risk events that have been prioritized using the qualitative risk analysis process and
their effect on project activities will be estimated, a numerical rating is applied to each risk based on
quantitative analysis, and then documented in this section of the risk management plan.
VH
H X
M
L
VL
VL L M H VH
Impact
Probability
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 5 of 9
2.5 Risk Response Planning
Each major risk (those falling in the Red & Yellow zones) will be assigned to a risk owner for
monitoring and controlling purposes to ensure that each risk is given the appropriate attention and
action.
For each risk, one of the following approaches will be selected to address it:
- Avoid – Eliminate the threat or condition or to protect the project objectives from its impact by
eliminating the cause
- Mitigate – Identify ways to reduce the probability or the impact of the risk
- Accept – Nothing will be done
- Contingency –Define actions to be taken in response to risks
- Transfer – Shift the consequence of a risk to a third party together with ownership of the
response by making another party responsible for the risk (buy insurance, outsourcing, etc.)
For each risk that will be mitigated, the project team will identify ways to prevent the risk from
occurring or reduce its impact or probability of occurring. This may include prototyping, adding
tasks to the project schedule, adding resources, etc. Any secondary risks that result from risk
mitigation response will be documented and follow the risk management protocol as the primary
risks.
For each major risk that is to be mitigated or that is accepted, a course of action will be outlined in
the event that the risk does materialize in order to minimize its impact.
2.6 Risk Monitoring, Controlling and Reporting
The level of risk on a project will be tracked, monitored, controlled and reported throughout the
project lifecycle.
Risks will be assigned a risk owner(s) who will track, monitor and control and report on the status
and effectiveness of each risk response action to the Risk Manager and Risk Management Team
on weekly basics
A “Risk Management Register” will be maintained by the Risk Manager or IPT and will be reported
as a component of the project status reporting process for this project.
All project change requests will be analysed for their possible impact to the project risks.
As Risk Events occur, the list will be re-prioritized during weekly reviews and the Risk Management
Register will reflect any and all changes including secondary and residual risks.
Management will be notified of important changes to risk status as a component to the Monthly
Project Status Report.
The Risk Manager will:
- Review, reevaluate, and modify the probability and impact for each risk item weekly.
- Analyze any new risks that are identified and add these items to the Risk Management
Register.
- Monitor and control risks that have been identified
- Review and update the Risk Management Register.
- Escalate issues/ problems to management.
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 6 of 9
The Risk Owner will:
- Help develop the risk response and risk trigger and carry out the execution of the risk response,
if a risk event occurs.
- Participate in the review, re-evaluation, and modification of the probability and impact for each
risk item on a weekly basis.
- Identify and participate in the analysis of any new risks that occur.
- Escalate issues/problems to Risk Manager that,
o Significantly impact the projects triple constraint or trigger another risk event to occur.
o Require action prior to the next weekly review
o Risk strategy is not effective or productive causing the need to execute the contingency
plan.
Risk activities will be recorded in the Risk Management Register.
2.7 Risk Contingency Budgeting
A risk contingency budget shall be established to prepare in advance for the possibility that some
risks will not be managed successfully. The risk contingency budget will contain funds that can be
tapped so that your project doesn't go over budget.
3 Tools and Practices
A Risk Management Register will be maintained by the Risk Manager and will be reviewed as a
standing agenda item for project team meetings.
Risk activities will be recorded in the Risk Management Register.
4 Closing a Risk
A risk will be considered closed when it meets the following criteria:
- Risk is no longer valid
- Risk Event has occurred
- Risk is no longer considered a risk
- Risk closure at the direction of the Risk Manager
5 Lessons Learned
The lessons learned will be captured and recorded.
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 7 of 9
6 Attachment A
6.1 Risk Management Plan Approval
The undersigned acknowledge that they have reviewed the Risk Management Plan and agree with
the information presented within this document. Changes to this Risk Management Plan will be
coordinated with, and approved by, the undersigned, or their designated representatives.
Signature: Date:
Print Name:
Title:
Role:
Signature: Date:
Print Name:
Title:
Role:
Signature: Date:
Print Name:
Title:
Role:
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 8 of 9
7 Attachment B
7.1 Register of Reference Documents
The following table summarizes the documents referenced in this document.
Document Name Description Location
Risk Managment Project Template
Issue Date: 15 December 2016
Page 9 of 9
8 Attachment C
8.1 Schedule of Key Terms
The following table provides definitions and explanations for terms and acronyms relevant to the
content presented within this document.
Term Definition
1
Risk Form
PROJECT DETAILS©
Project Name: Name of the project to which the risk relates Al-Manar Specialized Hospital 500 Bed
Project Manager: Name of the project manager responsible for mitigating the risk Eng. xxxxxxxxx
RISK DETAILS
Risk ID: Unique identifier assigned to this risk C-120001/R11/004
Raised By: Name of person who is raising the risk Eng. YYYYYYY
Date Raised: Date on which this form is completed 04 – 04 - 2016
Risk Description:
Add a brief description of the risk identified and its likely impact on the project (e.g. scope, resources, deliverables,
timescales and/or budgets)
Seasonal Annual Dust Storms - Climateatic Conditions
Cause 2monthes/year (Delay of covering the building will cause delay finishes activity. Also Facades
will be delayed.) Risk/opportunity is occurring if the Revised Noise Study indicates the additional wall
height is warranted.
Risk Likelihood:
Describe and rate the likelihood of the risk
eventuating (i.e. Low, Medium or High) High
Risk Impact:
Describe and rate the impact on the project if the risk eventuates
(i.e. Low, Medium or High) High (+) Our price is high/SM
RISK MITIGATION
Recommended Preventative Actions:
Add a brief description of any actions that should be taken to prevent the risk from eventuating
Change workday hours start at 4am:10am.
Add in an additional 250 hours in WBS 165 and all sub-activities.
Recommended Contingent Actions:
Add a brief description of any actions that should be taken, in the event that the risk happens, to minimize its impact on
the project
an additional noise study to analyze 5-meter-high wall at this location.
APPROVAL DETAILS©
Supporting Documentation:
Reference any supporting documentation used to substantiate this risk
1- C120001-CE-127
2- Risk Register RR-Ver.01/Rev02/4416
3- Consultant Letter ME-128
4- Hydraulic & Storm study a Rev01
5- Meteorological report
Signature: Date:
_______________________ ___/___/____
PLEASE FORWARD THIS FORM TO THE PROJECT MANAGER
2
‫اﻟﻌﻮاﺻﻒ‬ ‫اﺛﻨﺎء‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ‬
‫اﻟﻌﻮاﺻﻒ‬ ‫اﺛﻨﺎء‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ‬‫اﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﯾﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﻐﺎدرة‬ ‫و‬
3
4
‫اﻟﻌﻮاﺻﻒ‬ ‫ھﺪوء‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﺻﻮرة‬
5
‫اﻟﻤﺤﯿﻄﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻄﺮق‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻣﺎل‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻟﻜﺜﺒﺎن‬ ‫ﺣﺠﻢ‬
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Minimum 9 Date
Maximum 225
Actual 99
Item
No.
Risk Birth
Date /
Project
Phase
Status
Risk
Category
Risk Event Cause Effect
Threator
Opportunit
Type
Risk Trigger Probability Impact
Risk
Score
(Min = 1)
(Max = 25)
Probability
(%)
Impact($
ordays)
Effect
($ordays)
Response
Strategy
Response Actions including advantages
and disadvantages
Affected WBS
Tasks
Responsible
Entity
Interval or
Milestone
Check
Status: Date and Review
Comments
VH
H
M X
L
VL
VL L M H VH
VH
H X
M
L
VL
VL L M H VH
VH X
H
M
L
VL
VL L M H VH
VH X
H
M
L
VL
VL L M H VH
VH
H
M X
L
VL
VL L M H VH
VH X
H
M
L
VL
VL L M H VH
VH
H
M
L
VL
VL L M H VH
VH
H
M
L
VL
VL L M H VH
VH
H
M
L
VL
VL L M H VH
2
Active
4
Active
Mitigate
Follow up with Owner and urge them to expadite the
matter ASAP.
Eng.?????? Weekly
Owner WeeklyFollow Up with Owner
6-03-2016- Consultant Site PM
returned with comments.
Revise and re submit asap
Consultant site and HQ staff to expadite review of the
savings and deficits report asap.
WeeklyMitigate
7-03-2016 - Civil Defence visit
to site.
Mitigate
Weekly follow up with Civil Defence and in parrell
request letters of support from Owner.
PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT REGISTER - Project Name - Hospital - 200 Bed & Housing
CONTRACTOR : Company Name
15/12/2016
Impact
Probability
0
0
Impact
0
Probability
Medium Medium
9
8
5
Active
Savings & Deficit Calculations
Construction
Impact
6
Active
7
Owner Delays
Productivity , Time,
Performance
Threat
Very High
Probability
Very HighDelay in Invoice Payments
Impact
Transfer
Probability
External
Site PMDelay in completion
Delay in establish total project
cost and issueing of Cost Plan
for the project
Threat
Probability
Impact
9
25
0
0
Work Disruption, Low
Productivity,
Document of Ownership (Not
complying with actual area/
coordinates)
External
Weekly
Time, Performance and
Systems delivery
Threat
Very High High
Probability
Civil Defence Approvals
External
Delay in Approvals by Civil
Defence for (FA, FF and Fire
Zones, Exits …..)
20
Impact
Eng…………………
…..
Monitoring and Control
Time Delay to the Project
Qualitative Risk Assessment
9
Construction
Active
6-03-2016 - PO to be raised and
to site of windows, sub
contractor to be established.
1-3-2016- Letter sent to Owner
Directorite by Owner
representative.
Impact
High High
Probability
Mistake in Owner SAK
submittal and delay in
correcting mistake
Impact
Mitigate
Close Buidling before the season, Increase
productivity, Work in shifts during storm season.
Site PM Bi-Weekly
Time Delay to the Project
Threat
16
20
Threat
0
Weekly
6-3-2016- Meeting held,
Process and procedure in place.
Mitigate Eng. ……….
Impact
Probability
Risk Matrix
1
However the Risk is time dependant therefore the
risk score & probability will increase over time. The
chosen method of mitigation of this risk is to reduce
the risk impact by providing clarification on the
matter and implementing a process/procedure by
which full and clear coordination shall be carried out.
Threat
Medium Medium
Probability
Very High High
Delay in Owner
Approval/Decision
Work on hold for Clinic Areas
by Owner
3
Active
Seasonal Annual Dust Storms
Environment
Climateatic Conditions
100 50
0
0
60 54
403200 362880
0
50%
70%
90%
90%
50%
90%
0%
Risk Response PlanQuantitative Analysis
Project Risk
Score
165
0
0
0%
0%
Risk Identification
If it continued up to end of the
project or the last 6 months it
will delay the building
complete finishes and usage
2monthes/year (Delay of
covering the building will
cause delay finishes activity.
Also Facades will be delayed.)
Time
Scope
Time
Cost
Time
Cost
Time
15/12/2016 Page 1 of 1 PMO-REG-CM-01(00)

Risk management case study

  • 1.
  • 2.
    Content: 1. Introduction 2. RiskSources 3. Roles and Responsibilities 4. Plan Risk Management 5. Identify Risks 6. Qualitative Risk Analysis 7. Quantitative Risk Analysis 8. Risk Responses 9. Control Risk 7/28/2017 2
  • 3.
  • 4.
    ‫المشروع‬ ‫عن‬ ‫نبذة‬ ‫اﻷرض‬‫مساحة‬ ‫اجمالى‬):٣١٠٦٨٦٫٢٣(‫مربع‬ ‫متر‬ ‫للمشروع‬ ‫اﻹجمالية‬ ‫القيمة‬:٤٧٠‫﷼‬ ‫مليون‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫مدة‬ ◦‫اﻷولي‬ ‫المرحلة‬٣٦‫شهر‬ ◦‫الثانية‬ ‫المرحلة‬٢٤‫شهر‬ ‫سعة‬ ‫مستشفى‬ ‫مشروع‬ ‫المباني‬ ‫مساحة‬ ‫تبلغ‬٢٠٠‫سرير‬١١٦٠٠٠‫مربع‬ ‫متر‬)Built Up(‫يلي‬ ‫مما‬ ‫وتتكون‬ ً‫ا‬‫تقريب‬: ‫الرئيسي‬ ‫المبنى‬–‫الخدمات‬ ‫مبنى‬–‫عدد‬٢‫حارس‬ ‫مبني‬-‫من‬ ‫ويتألف‬ ‫العام‬ ‫الموقع‬١-‫ثﻼثة‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷسوار‬ ‫للمستشفى‬ ‫رئيسية‬ ‫بوابات‬٢-‫اﻷرضية‬ ‫المياه‬ ‫خزانات‬٣-‫الديزل‬ ‫خزانات‬٤-‫اﻷوكسجين‬ ‫خزان‬ ‫غرفة‬ ٥-‫المسال‬ ‫الغاز‬ ‫خزانات‬٦-‫الخضراء‬ ‫الساحات‬+‫للسيارات‬ ‫مواقف‬+‫الهيليكوبتر‬ ‫للطائرة‬ ‫مدرج‬
  • 5.
    ‫المشروع‬ ‫مراحل‬ ‫اﻻولى‬ ‫المرحلة‬:‫مساحة‬‫على‬)١٤٦٥١٨٫٩(‫مربع‬ ‫متر‬)‫التعميد‬ ‫تم‬( ‫اﻻرضى‬ ‫الدور‬ ‫الرئيسى‬ ‫المبنى‬) :١٤٣٢٨(‫م‬٢‫اﻷدوار‬ ‫إجمالي‬:٣٦٠٠٠‫م‬٢ ‫اﻻرضى‬ ‫الدور‬ ‫الخدمات‬ ‫مبنى‬) :٢٢١٩٫٣٤٨(‫م‬٢ ‫اسفلت‬)‫مواقف‬+‫طرق‬) : (٥٩٤٣٢٫٤٥(‫م‬٢ ‫خضراء‬ ‫مساحات‬) :٥٦٣٠٣(‫م‬٢ ‫ارصفة‬) :١٤٢٣٦٫١١(‫م‬٢ ‫الثانية‬ ‫المرحلة‬):‫اسكان‬ ‫مبانى‬+‫مواقف‬+‫خضراء‬ ‫مساحات‬+‫اسوار‬(‫مساحة‬ ‫على‬)١٦٤١٦٧٫٣(‫متر‬ ‫مربع‬)‫التعميد‬ ‫تم‬.(
  • 6.
    1.1 Introduction –Understanding The Risk: 7/28/2017 6
  • 7.
    Definitions: Risk or Riskevent A general definition of “risk” in this context is: Risk is an uncertainty that matters; it can affect project objectives negatively or positively. The uncertainty may be about a future event that may or may not happen and the unknown magnitude of the impact on project objectives if it does happen. Thus, a “risk” is characterized by its probability of occurrence and its uncertain impact on project objectives. 7/28/2017 7
  • 8.
    Definitions: Uncertainty An uncommon stateof nature, characterized by the absence of any information related to a desired. 7/28/2017 8 ‫و‬‫هي‬ ‫مجاﻻت‬ ‫خمسة‬ ‫في‬ ‫اليقين‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫يظهر‬: ١.‫اليقين‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫و‬ ‫التباين‬)‫الثقة‬ ‫معيار‬(‫التسعير‬ ‫و‬ ‫بالتقديرات‬ ‫المرتبط‬‫المشروع‬ ‫نهاية‬ ‫حتي‬ ‫ثباته‬ ‫و‬. ٢.‫حول‬ ‫الشكوك‬‫البيئة‬‫واﻹمداد‬ ‫والنقل‬‫المشروع‬ ‫الي‬ ‫الوصول‬ ‫زمن‬ ‫و‬.)‫المع‬ ‫رجال‬/‫الدرب‬( ٣.‫التصميم‬ ‫حول‬ ‫الثقة‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫و‬ ‫الغموض‬)‫اﻹحتياجات‬ ‫و‬ ‫الهدف‬.( ٤.‫حول‬ ‫الغموض‬‫الزمن‬ ‫و‬ ‫التمويل‬ ‫و‬ ‫وفرتها‬ ‫و‬ ‫الموارد‬. ٥.‫المصلحة‬ ‫أصحاب‬ ‫و‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫في‬ ‫المشاركة‬ ‫اﻷطراف‬ ‫بين‬ ‫اﻷساسية‬ ‫العﻼقات‬ ‫بشأن‬ ‫اليقين‬ ‫عدم‬)‫المسئولي‬ ‫و‬ ‫المتطلبات‬‫ات‬.( ‫من‬ ‫المزيد‬ ‫الي‬ ‫نمضي‬ ‫ونحن‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫ﻷداء‬ ‫أساسية‬ ‫أهمية‬ ‫أكثر‬ ‫تصبح‬ ‫فإنها‬ ‫عموما‬ ‫ولكن‬ ،‫مهمة‬ ‫اليقين‬ ‫عدم‬ ‫من‬ ‫المناطق‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫كل‬ ‫مواجهتها‬ ‫علي‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫التفاصيل‬.
  • 9.
  • 10.
    External risk: Buildingpermits???!!!!  Schedule risk: Annual Hurricanes/Dust storms and which will last for two months a year, which cause a fall in labour productivity due to lower working hours during that period as well as material losses.  Cost risk: because the Cladding may arrive later than planned, we may need to extend our lease of scaffolding on the staging area at a cost of $ 200K. 7/28/2017 10 Source of RISK (In Project):
  • 11.
     Quality risk:the concrete may not dry on a short time During winter weather causing us to not meet our quality standard of concrete strength. Resource risk: Formwork/steel Fixing Sub-Contractor will leave due to Late of steel supply which caused long time of tasks This Sub-Con more qualified/safe time more than others.  Customer satisfaction ( stakeholder satisfaction ) risk: there is a chance that the customer will not be happy with XYZ delay also Quality. 7/28/2017 11 Source of RISK (In Examples):
  • 12.
  • 13.
    11.1 Plan Risk Management •Plan Risk Management is the process of defining how to conduct risk management activities for a project. • The key benefit of this process is it ensures that the degree, type, and visibility of risk management are commensurate with both the risks and the importance of the project to the organization. • A Risk Plan should be documented early in the project, during the Planning phase. • The plan is undertaken prior to the Execution phase to ensure that any risks identified are addressed during the Execution phase itself. 7/28/2017 13
  • 14.
  • 15.
    ‫المخاطر؟‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫لخطة‬‫العريضة‬ ‫الخطوط‬ ‫هي‬ ‫ما‬ What is a Risk Plan Outlines? ‫المشروع‬ ‫لمخاطر‬ ‫العريضة‬ ‫الخطوط‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫تشمل‬ ‫المتوقعة‬. ‫من‬ ‫لكﻼ‬ ‫اتخاذها‬ ‫يجب‬ ‫التي‬ ‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫من‬ ‫مجموعة‬ ‫توفر‬: ‫الحدوث‬ ‫من‬ ‫الخطر‬ ‫منع‬. ‫منها‬ ‫مفر‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تأثير‬ ‫من‬ ‫الحد‬. ‫الخطة‬ ‫تشمل‬ ،‫تحديدا‬ ‫أكثر‬ ‫وبشكل‬: ١.‫المشروع‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ‫المتوقعة‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لكافة‬ ‫كاملة‬ ‫قائمة‬. ٢.‫المخاطر‬ ‫ﻹدارة‬ ‫الﻼزمة‬ ‫المعامﻼت‬ ‫و‬ ‫المستندات‬ ‫و‬ ‫النماذج‬. ٣.‫طريقة‬‫ت‬ ‫أن‬ ‫المتوقع‬ ‫من‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫كل‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫تقييم‬‫حدث‬. ٤.‫ك‬ ‫عند‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫على‬ ‫التأثير‬ ‫درجات‬ ‫تصنيف‬ ‫و‬ ‫تقييم‬‫خطر‬ ‫ل‬ ‫الواقع‬ ‫في‬ ‫يحدث‬ ‫أن‬ ‫يمكن‬. ٥.‫سنتعا‬ ‫التي‬ ‫الشاملة‬ ‫اﻷهمية‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷولوية‬ ‫درجات‬ ‫تصنيف‬‫بها‬ ‫مل‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫كل‬ ‫تققيم‬ ‫عند‬. ٦.‫وقوع‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫من‬ ‫للحد‬ ‫الوقائية‬ ‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫من‬ ‫مجموعة‬ ‫تشمل‬ ‫المتوقعة‬ ‫المخاطر‬. ٧.‫تأثير‬ ‫من‬ ‫للحد‬ ‫المحتملة‬ ‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫من‬ ‫مجموعة‬ ‫وهناك‬ ‫المتوقعة‬ ‫المخاطر‬. ٨.‫المشروع‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫عمليات‬ ‫و‬ ‫مراحل‬. 7/28/2017 15
  • 16.
    ‫المخاطر؟‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬‫ننشأ‬ ‫و‬ ‫نستخدم‬ ‫متي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫تكون‬ ‫أن‬ ‫يجب‬‫التخطيط‬ ‫مرحلة‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ،‫المشروع‬ ‫من‬ ‫مبكر‬ ‫وقت‬ ‫في‬ ‫موثقة‬. ‫خ‬ ‫لما‬ ‫طبقا‬ ‫تنفيذ‬ ‫مرحلة‬ ‫خﻼل‬ ‫معالجتها‬ ‫سيتم‬ ‫تحديدها‬ ‫تم‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫أن‬ ‫لضمان‬ ‫التنفيذ‬ ‫مرحلة‬ ‫قبل‬ ‫الخطة‬ ‫عمل‬ ‫يتم‬‫له‬ ‫ططنا‬. ‫عل‬ ‫والسيطرة‬ ‫المراقبة‬ ‫اجل‬ ‫من‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫عملية‬ ‫في‬ ‫فعال‬ ‫بشكل‬ ‫تساهم‬ ‫سوف‬ ،‫الخطة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫توثيق‬ ‫تم‬ ‫أن‬ ‫بعد‬ ‫الفور‬ ‫على‬‫ى‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫في‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫وتأثير‬ ‫احتمال‬.....‫الرؤية‬ ‫نمتلك‬ ‫ﻷننا‬. The Risk Management Process is terminated only when the Execution phase of the project is completed (i.e. just prior to Project Closure). 7/28/2017 16
  • 17.
    Our Form (OrganizationalProcess Assets) 7/28/2017 17 Risk Form:
  • 18.
    Our Form (OrganizationalProcess Assets) 7/28/2017 18 Risk Register:
  • 19.
    ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬‫إعداد‬RMP docxRisk Management Plan Project Template.………… 7/28/2017 19
  • 20.
    ‫به‬ ‫القيام‬ ‫يجب‬‫الذي‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫على‬ ‫تطغى‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫أن‬ ‫يجب‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬)‫ت‬ ‫إذا‬‫م‬ ‫مخاطر‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫تحديد‬=‫الﻼعودة‬.( ‫تنفق‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫أيضا‬ ‫ولكن‬ ،‫تماما‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫منخفضة‬ ‫العناصر‬ ‫تتجاهل‬ ‫ﻻ‬‫الكثير‬ ‫عليهم‬ ‫الوقت‬ ‫من‬. ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لجميع‬ ‫تحديد‬ ‫لديك‬ ‫أن‬ ‫تفترض‬ ‫ﻻ‬. 7/28/2017 20 ‫إحذر‬ ‫إعداد‬ ‫عند‬/‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫تطوير‬....
  • 21.
    11.2 Identify Risks •Identify Risks is the process of determining which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics. • The key benefit of this process is the documentation of existing risks and the knowledge and ability it provides to the project team to anticipate events. 7/28/2017 21 1. Plan Risk Management 2. Identify Risks 3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 5. Plan Risk Responses 6. Control Risks
  • 22.
    ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تحديد‬ )Risk Form( •‫تعريف‬: •‫تحديد‬‫المخاطر‬‫هو‬‫تقرير‬‫و‬‫توقع‬‫ما‬‫قد‬‫يحدث‬‫و‬‫يمكن‬‫أن‬‫يؤثر‬‫على‬‫أهداف‬‫المشروع‬‫وكيفي‬‫ة‬ ‫حدوث‬‫هذه‬‫اﻷمور‬. •‫أهم‬‫مخرجات‬‫هذ‬‫المرحلة‬-‫سجل‬‫مخاطر‬‫المشروع‬-‫الذي‬‫يوثق‬‫المخاطر‬‫وخصائصها‬. •‫يتم‬‫تعديل‬‫سجل‬‫المخاطر‬‫في‬‫وقت‬‫ﻻحق‬‫عن‬‫طريق‬‫التحليل‬‫النوعي‬‫و‬‫الكمي‬‫للمخاط‬،‫ر‬‫و‬ ‫يشمل‬‫محددا‬‫ت‬‫اﻻستجابة‬،‫للمخاطر‬‫وعمليات‬‫المراقبة‬‫و‬‫السيطرة‬‫علي‬‫المخاطر‬. •‫تحديد‬‫المخاطر‬‫هو‬‫عملية‬‫تكرارية‬‫يتم‬‫تحديثها‬‫و‬‫من‬‫خﻼلها‬‫تدمج‬‫مخاطر‬‫جديدة‬‫قد‬‫تص‬‫بح‬ ‫معروفة‬/‫متوقعة‬‫مع‬‫تقدم‬‫المشروع‬‫خﻼل‬‫دورة‬،‫حياته‬‫و‬‫المخاطر‬‫التي‬‫تم‬‫تحديدها‬‫ساب‬‫قا‬‫قد‬ ‫تكون‬‫انتهت‬‫او‬،‫نحيت‬‫ويمكن‬‫أن‬‫تطرأ‬/‫نتوقع‬‫حدوث‬‫مخاطر‬‫أخرى‬. ‫يتم‬‫إدخال‬‫المعلومات‬‫في‬‫سجل‬‫المخاطر‬. ‫يتم‬‫تحديد‬‫مسئول‬‫من‬‫ضمن‬‫فريق‬‫إدارة‬‫المخاطر‬)PRMT(‫لكل‬‫واحد‬‫من‬‫تلك‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫الذي‬‫يصبح‬‫المسئول‬‫عنه‬RiskOwner. ‫يتم‬‫مراجعة‬‫سجل‬‫المخاطر‬‫وتحديثه‬‫في‬‫جميع‬‫مراحل‬‫المشروع‬. ‫يجوز‬‫لمدير‬‫المشروع‬‫ان‬‫يكون‬‫احد‬‫خياراته‬‫استنباط‬‫سجﻼت‬‫المخاطر‬‫اﻷولية‬‫ﻷجز‬‫اء‬‫او‬ ‫مراحل‬‫المشروع‬‫و‬‫توظيفها‬‫و‬‫دمجها‬‫في‬‫إعداد‬‫سجل‬‫المخاطر‬‫للمشروع‬. ‫مع‬،‫ذلك‬‫يتم‬‫إعداد‬/‫تطوير‬‫سجل‬‫مخاطر‬‫المشروع‬‫خﻼل‬‫إجتماع‬PRMT. 7/28/2017 22
  • 23.
  • 24.
    Risk Categories (OrRBS) Construction Analytics Complexity and Interface Process Quality Performance & reliability Design Business Benefits Requirement Technology Acceptance & Deliverable External Subcontractors & Suppliers Regularity Customer Government Law Market Organizational Project Dependencies Resources Budgeting & Funding Prioritization Staffing Quality & Sufficiency Environment Weather Topography Issues Project Management Scope Culture Estimating Planning & Controlling Communication 7/28/2017 ENG.AHMED SAID REFAEI 24
  • 25.
    11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis •Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis is the process of prioritizing risks for further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact. • The key benefit of this process is that it enables project managers to reduce the level of uncertainty and to focus on high-priority risks. 7/28/2017 25 1. Plan Risk Management 2. Identify Risks 3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 5. Plan Risk Responses 6. Control Risks
  • 26.
    ٠٦-‫النوع‬ ‫التحليل‬‫ي‬ ‫للمخاطر‬ •‫يستند‬‫التحليل‬‫النوعي‬‫على‬‫جداول‬‫اسمية‬‫أو‬‫وصفية‬‫لوصف‬‫احتمال‬‫وعواق‬‫ب‬ ‫المخاطر‬. ‫تعتبر‬‫اول‬‫عمليات‬‫الفحص‬‫و‬‫التنقيح‬‫و‬‫التصفية‬‫للمخاطر‬‫او‬‫الفرص‬ ‫و‬‫يمكن‬‫اﻹعتماد‬‫عليها‬‫عندما‬‫يطلب‬‫إجراء‬‫تقييم‬‫سريع‬‫و‬‫إجراءات‬‫تصحيحي‬‫ة‬. ‫في‬‫هذه‬‫المرحلة‬‫سيتم‬‫تقييم‬‫احتمال‬‫وقوع‬‫كل‬‫المخاطر‬‫التي‬‫تم‬‫تحديدها‬‫وتأثيره‬،‫ا‬‫و‬‫يقوم‬ ‫فريق‬‫العمل‬‫مستعينا‬‫بالخبرات‬‫الﻼزمه‬‫بتحديد‬‫المدخﻼت‬. ‫تحديد‬‫أولويات‬‫المخاطر‬‫التي‬‫تم‬‫تحديدها‬‫سابقا‬‫ضمن‬‫خطة‬‫ادارة‬‫المخاطر‬‫و‬‫تعريف‬ ‫المخاطر‬. ‫فريق‬‫ادارة‬‫المخاطر‬‫يمكنه‬‫تحسين‬‫أداء‬‫المشروع‬‫بشكل‬‫فعال‬‫من‬‫خﻼل‬‫التركيز‬‫عل‬‫ى‬ ‫المخاطر‬‫ذات‬‫اﻷولوية‬‫العالية‬. ‫ضرورة‬‫إستمرار‬‫و‬‫تكرار‬‫إعادة‬‫النظر‬‫في‬‫التحليل‬‫النوعي‬‫للمخاطر‬‫خﻼل‬‫دورة‬‫حياة‬ ‫المشروع‬‫يساهم‬‫في‬‫التحديث‬‫المستمر‬‫للتقييم‬‫و‬‫اﻹستعدادات‬. 7/28/2017 26
  • 27.
    DEFINITIONS OF IMPACTAND PROBABILITY RATINGS (as agreed) Rating --> Very Low Low Medium/ Moderate High Very High Cost Impact of Threat (CO + COS) Insignificant cost increase <5% cost increase 5-10% cost increase 10-20% cost increase >20% cost increase Cost Impact of Opportunity (CO + COS) Insignificant cost reduction <1% cost decrease 1-3% cost decreaseRisk Managment Project Template.docx 3-5% cost decrease >5% cost decrease Schedule Impact of Threat Insignificant slippage <1 month slippage 1-3 months slippage 3-6 months slippage >6 months slippage Schedule Impact of Opportunity Insignificant improvement <1 month improvement 1-2 months improvement 2-3 months improvement >3 months improvement Probability 1–9% 10–39% 40–59% 60–89% 90–99% 7/28/2017 27
  • 28.
    Probability and ImpactRatings for Projects ‫ال‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫يسرد‬‫سابق‬‫المعتمد‬ ‫تصنيفنا‬)‫القياسي‬(‫التأث‬ ‫درجات‬ ‫و‬ ‫الخطر‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫لمستويات‬‫ير‬ ‫المحتملة‬.‫ال‬ ‫او‬ ‫للتكلفة‬ ‫الحقيقية‬ ‫القيم‬ ‫استعملنا‬ ‫اذا‬ ‫بكثير‬ ‫اسهل‬ ‫التقييم‬ ‫هذا‬ ‫يكون‬ ‫قد‬‫بوحدة‬ ‫وقت‬ ‫الزمن‬ ‫او‬ ‫العملة‬. ‫دليل‬ ‫يعتبر‬ ‫التأثير‬ ‫لمستويات‬ ‫التصنيف‬ ‫و‬ ‫التقييم‬ ‫هذا‬‫تصنيف‬ ‫يشمل‬ ‫و‬ ‫عملي‬‫اﻹحتم‬‫للمخاطر‬ ‫اﻻت‬ ‫المتوقعة‬‫يعتبر‬ ‫و‬‫حيا‬ ‫أثناء‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تقييم‬ ‫في‬ ‫العمل‬ ‫لفريق‬ ‫دستور‬ ‫و‬ ‫ثابت‬ ‫إطار‬ ‫بمثابة‬‫المشروع‬ ‫ة‬. ‫المخاطر‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫في‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫إعداد‬ ‫تم‬Risk Management Plan‫الج‬ ‫و‬‫الوقت‬ ‫و‬ ‫بالعملة‬ ‫يحدد‬ ‫دول‬ ‫مستوي‬ ‫لكل‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫لهذا‬ ‫مناسبا‬ ‫يراه‬ ‫ما‬ ‫الزمني‬.‫ا‬ ‫و‬ ‫المستويات‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫تطبيق‬ ‫صﻼحية‬ ‫بشرط‬‫ﻵثار‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫كامل‬ ‫علي‬. ‫تشمل‬ ‫و‬ ‫تتعدي‬ ‫إنما‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷنشطة‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷعمال‬ ‫بنود‬ ‫تخص‬ ‫التي‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫علي‬ ‫فقط‬ ‫اﻵثار‬ ‫تقف‬ ‫ﻻ‬‫ايضا‬ ‫انواعه‬ ‫بكل‬ ‫الخارجي‬ ‫التمويل‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻹتمان‬ ‫علي‬ ‫التأثير‬‫دراسة‬ ‫تستوجب‬ ‫التي‬ ‫و‬Payback Period & Break Even point. Cash flow 7/28/2017 28
  • 29.
    Probability and ImpactMatrix (Heat Map) 7/28/2017 29 ‫لون‬‫المنطقة‬‫يدل‬‫على‬‫مستوي‬‫أولوية‬‫مواجهة‬‫المخاطر‬:‫فالمنطقة‬‫الحمراء‬‫تعني‬‫أهم‬‫ية‬ ‫كبيرة‬‫واﻷصفر‬‫هو‬‫أهمية‬‫متوسطة‬،‫واﻷخضر‬‫هو‬‫أهمية‬‫منخفضة‬. ‫على‬‫سبيل‬،‫المثال‬‫احد‬‫المخاطر‬‫احتمال‬"‫معتدل‬=Medium"‫وذا‬‫تأثير‬"‫عالي‬=High" ‫يقع‬‫في‬‫المنطقة‬‫الحمراء‬.)‫درجة‬‫المخاطرة‬‫فيها‬‫هي‬٣×٤=١٢(. ‫يتم‬‫تحديد‬‫درجات‬‫اﻹستجابة‬‫تبعا‬‫لدرجة‬‫المخاطرة‬The Risk Score.
  • 30.
  • 31.
    11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis •Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis is the process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives. 7/28/2017 31 1. Plan Risk Management 2. Identify Risks 3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis 4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis 5. Plan Risk Responses 6. Control Risks
  • 32.
    ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬ QuantitativeRisk Analysis ١-‫التعريف‬ ‫عند‬ ‫عددية‬ ‫بقيمة‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لتقدير‬ ‫وسيلة‬ ‫هو‬ ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬‫المشروع‬ ‫أن‬ ‫و‬ ‫حدوثها‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫أهداف‬ ‫يلبي‬ ‫سوف‬‫ه‬‫الزمن‬ ‫و‬ ‫التكلفة‬ ‫حيث‬ ‫من‬. ٢-‫التحليل‬ ‫أهداف‬‫الكمى‬‫للمخاطر‬ ‫المحددة‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫أهداف‬ ‫تحقيق‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫ويقيم‬ ‫للمشروع‬ ‫المحتملة‬ ‫النتائج‬ ‫يقيس‬. ‫الكمي‬ ‫النهج‬ ‫يوفر‬‫رقمية‬ ‫محددات‬‫عدم‬ ‫هناك‬ ‫يكون‬ ‫عندما‬ ‫القرارات‬ ‫ﻻتخاذ‬‫م‬ ‫امر‬ ‫في‬ ‫شك‬ ‫و‬ ‫تأكد‬‫ا‬. ‫و‬ ،‫للتحقيق‬ ‫وقابلة‬ ‫واقعية‬ ‫تكلفة‬ ‫يخلق‬‫إعادة‬‫الجدول‬‫ة‬‫الزمني‬‫ل‬ ‫افضل‬ ‫بشكل‬ ‫ة‬‫نطاق‬‫العمل‬‫تحقيق‬ ‫و‬ ‫اﻷهداف‬. 7/28/2017 32
  • 33.
    ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬ QuantitativeRisk Analysis ‫يتم‬ ‫كيف‬‫اعداد‬‫التحليل‬‫الكمى‬‫للمخاطر‬ ،‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬ ‫إجراء‬ ‫أجل‬ ‫من‬‫توفر‬ ‫من‬ ‫ﻻبد‬،‫عالية‬ ‫جودة‬ ‫ذات‬ ‫بيانات‬ ‫وهذا‬‫يخلق‬‫متطور‬ ‫مشروع‬ ‫نموذج‬‫ﻹنتاج‬‫المشروع‬ ‫لمخاطر‬ ‫أولوية‬ ‫قوائم‬‫بشكل‬ ‫نموذجي‬)‫إجراء‬ ‫من‬ ‫عادة‬‫ال‬‫النوعي‬ ‫تحليل‬‫للمخاطر‬( ‫التحليل‬ ‫من‬ ‫اﻻنتهاء‬ ‫عند‬ ‫و‬‫الكمى‬‫للمخاطر‬: ‫تحديد‬ ‫نستطيع‬‫اﻻجابة‬‫هذه‬ ‫على‬‫اﻻسئله‬‫؟‬ ‫ماهي‬‫إحتماﻻت‬‫المحدد‬ ‫الموعد‬ ‫في‬ ‫الحالية‬ ‫الخطة‬ ‫تحقيق‬‫و‬/‫الميزاني‬ ‫ضمن‬ ‫أو‬‫ة‬ ‫المقدرة؟‬ ‫الطوارئ‬ ‫احتياطي‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫حاجة‬ ‫هناك‬ ‫هل‬‫و‬‫الوقت‬ ‫من‬ ‫مطلوب‬ ‫كم‬‫و‬‫؟‬ ‫المال‬ 7/28/2017 33
  • 34.
  • 35.
    7/28/2017 35 Quantitative RiskAnalysis Tools and Techniques 1. Data Gathering and representation techniques • Interviewing • Probability distribution 2. Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques • Sensitivity analysis )‫مثﻼ‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫على‬ ‫تأثيرها‬ ‫و‬ ‫بخطوه‬ ‫المخاطرخطوه‬ ‫انواع‬ ‫دراسة‬:‫العماله‬ ‫أسعار‬ ‫زيادة‬ ‫مخاطر‬( • Expected monetary value analysis ( EMV ) )‫سيناريوهات‬ ‫عده‬ ‫طريق‬ ‫عن‬ ‫المتوقعه‬ ‫المالية‬ ‫القيمه‬( • Modeling and simulation )‫مونتكارلو‬ ‫طريق‬ ‫عن‬ ‫المحاكاه‬ ‫و‬ ‫النمذجة‬(
  • 36.
    ٠٧–‫ادوات‬‫للمخاطر‬ ‫الكمي‬ ‫التحليل‬ Quantitative risk and opportunity assessment provides a numerical value measuring the effect expected from risks and opportunities. (ICB)  Monte Carlo analysis and decision trees and scenario planning are examples of powerful quantitative risk and opportunity assessment techniques. (ICB) 7/28/2017 36
  • 37.
    Decision Tree (ExpectedMonitory Value) – Choosing Sub-Contractor 7/28/2017 37 Hiring Sub-C. For Insufficient Labor Low Bidder Bad Qualification High Bidder Reliable Delay 12 Days + Good Quality On Time + Bad Quality 60% 10% Delay 4 Days On Time 20% 80% Decision EMV = -2440 (The Larger Of -3240 & -2440) 110 - 114.6= -4.6K -2760 110 – 110 = 0 110 – 115.2 = -4.2K 110 – 112 = -2K 0 -840 -1600 EMV =-3240 EMV = -2440 Outcome Probability • Over Head 800SR/Day • Budget Cost = 110 SR/CM • Selling Price = 125 SR/CM • Qt’y = 1000 CM Delay 7Days + Bad Quality 30% 110 – 111.6 = -1.6K -480 105 SR/CM 112 SR/CM 114.6=800x12+105x1000 111.6=800x7+105x1000+1000repair 111.6=800x4+112x1000+0 repair
  • 38.
    Modeling and simulationand Probability Distribution 7/28/2017 38
  • 39.
    QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSISVERSUS QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS QUALITATIVE QUANTITATIVE Risk-Level Project-Level Subjective evaluation of probability and impact Probabilistic estimates of time and cost Quick and easy to perform Time consuming Text analysis Data analysis No special software or tools required May require specialized tools 7/28/2017 39
  • 40.
    11.5 Plan Risk Responses •Plan Risk Responses is the process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives. • The key benefit of this process is that it addresses the risks by their priority, inserting resources and activities into the budget, schedule and project management plan as needed. 7/28/2017 40
  • 41.
    ٠٨–‫اﻹستحابة‬ ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫اﻻستجابة‬ ‫أ‬ ‫من‬،‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫وتحديد‬ ،‫اﻻستراتيجية‬ ‫الخيارات‬ ‫وضع‬ ‫عملية‬ ‫هو‬‫جل‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫ﻷهداف‬ ‫التهديدات‬ ‫من‬ ‫والحد‬ ‫الفرص‬ ‫تعزيز‬. ‫تن‬ ‫اجل‬ ‫من‬ ‫المسؤولية‬ ‫لتحمل‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫فريق‬ ‫أعضاء‬ ‫تهيئة‬ ‫يتم‬‫فيذ‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫و‬ ‫التهديدات‬ ‫مواجهة‬ ‫و‬ ‫لﻼستجابة‬ ‫المحدد‬ ‫اﻹستراتيجية‬. ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫اﻻستجابة‬ ‫تتضمن‬: ‫المخاطر‬ ‫اولويات‬ ‫و‬ ‫سريعة‬ ‫استجابة‬ ‫تستدعي‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تحديد‬. ‫المخاطر‬ ‫لكل‬ ‫اﻷفضل‬ ‫اﻹستراتيجية‬ ‫تحديد‬. ‫المخاطر‬ ‫عن‬ ‫للمسئول‬ ‫إجراء‬ ‫تعيين‬Risk Owner‫وقوعها‬ ‫احتمال‬ ‫من‬ ‫للحد‬ ‫و‬/‫خطر‬ ‫كل‬ ‫آثار‬ ‫أو‬.‫للمشروع‬ ‫المتاحة‬ ‫بالخبرات‬ ‫يستعين‬ ‫أن‬ ‫ويمكن‬. ‫اﻷمر‬ ‫لزم‬ ‫إذا‬ ،‫إضافية‬ ‫مساندة‬ ‫و‬ ‫دعم‬ ‫طلب‬. ‫العمل‬ ‫فريق‬ ‫لدي‬ ‫المقبولة‬ ‫اﻹستراتيجية‬ ‫كانت‬ ‫إذا‬)PRMT(‫الخطر‬ ‫قبول‬ ‫هي‬ ACCEPTED )(‫خطة‬ ‫ﻹعداد‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫عن‬ ‫للمسئول‬ ‫اﻹجراءات‬ ‫أحد‬ ‫يندب‬ ‫أن‬ ‫للطوارئ‬. 7/28/2017 41
  • 42.
    11.6 Control Risks •Control Risks is the process of implementing risk response plans, tracking identified risks, monitoring residual risks, identifying new risks, and evaluating risk process effectiveness throughout the project. • The key benefit of this process is that it improves efficiency of the risk approach throughout the project life cycle to continuously optimize risk responses. • Risk monitoring and control continues for the life of the project. • The list of project risks changes as the project matures, new risks develop, or anticipated risks disappear. Risk ratings and prioritizations can also change during the project lifecycle. 7/28/2017 42 ‫تعريف‬: ‫المشروع‬ ‫على‬ ‫تأثيرها‬ ‫و‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تعقب‬ ‫مستوى‬ ‫هو‬-‫مراقبة‬ ‫عليها‬ ‫والسيطرة‬‫خﻼل‬‫المشروع‬ ‫حياة‬ ‫دورة‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫فريق‬ ‫مهام‬: ‫وتشمل‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫فريق‬ ‫مهام‬PRMT‫يلي‬ ‫ما‬ ‫استعراض‬: ‫وإضاف‬ ،‫حديثا‬ ‫للمخاطرالناشئة‬ ‫اﻻستجابة‬ ‫إجراءات‬ ‫وتخطيط‬ ‫وتحليل‬ ‫تحديد‬‫إلى‬ ‫تها‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫سجل‬. ‫فعاليتها‬ ‫وتقييم‬ ،‫اﻻستجابة‬ ‫إجراءات‬ ‫تنفيذ‬ ‫مراجعة‬. ،‫الحالية‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫تقييم‬ ‫إعادة‬‫ال‬ ‫و‬‫المفعو‬ ‫سارية‬ ‫تزال‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫الفرضيات‬ ‫من‬ ‫تحقق‬‫وتعديل‬ ،‫ل‬ ‫ال‬‫سابقة‬.
  • 43.
    ٠٩–‫الرقاب‬ ‫و‬ ‫السيطرة‬‫ة‬ ‫المخاطر‬‫علي‬ ‫المرحلة‬ ‫هذه‬ ‫في‬ ‫الضرورة‬ ‫حسب‬ ‫التقييم‬. ‫عن‬ ‫المسئول‬ ‫دعم‬ ‫و‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫معالجة‬ ‫و‬ ‫لمواجهة‬ ‫إضافية‬ ‫إجراءات‬ ‫تعيين‬ ‫التنفيذ‬. ‫فرصة‬ ‫انعدمت‬ ‫أو‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫علي‬ ‫تأثيرها‬ ‫إنقضي‬ ‫التي‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إستبعاد‬‫حدوثها‬ ‫مست‬ ‫إلى‬ ‫وصلت‬ ‫قد‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫في‬ ‫المتبقية‬ ‫آثارها‬ ‫تعتبر‬ ‫التي‬ ‫تلك‬ ‫أو‬‫مقبول‬ ‫وى‬. ‫لعملية‬ ‫اﻷخرى‬ ‫المقاصد‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫مراقبة‬ ‫و‬ ‫السيطرة‬‫تحدي‬ ‫هي‬‫د‬: ‫إمكانية‬ ‫و‬ ‫للمخاطر‬ ‫التقييم‬ ‫حاﻻت‬ ‫في‬ ‫تغيير‬ ‫يوجد‬ ‫هل‬‫استبعاده‬‫ا؟‬ ‫المخاطر‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫وإجراءات‬ ‫سياسات‬ ‫اتباع‬ ‫يجري‬ ‫هل‬‫ﻻ؟‬ ‫ام‬ ‫الي‬ ‫احتياج‬ ‫يوجد‬ ‫هل‬‫تعديل‬‫خطة‬‫طوارئ‬ ‫احتياطي‬‫ا‬‫لمو‬ ‫الزمني‬ ‫الجدول‬ ‫و‬ ‫لتكلفة‬‫ا‬‫ئ‬‫مة‬ ‫تقييم‬‫الوضع‬‫الحالي‬‫ل‬‫لمخاطر‬‫؟‬. ‫تنطوي‬‫عملية‬‫و‬ ‫السيطرة‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫مراقبة‬/‫اختيار‬ ‫على‬ ‫الفرص‬/‫التغ‬‫الي‬ ‫يير‬ ‫وتنفيذ‬ ،‫البديلة‬ ‫اﻻستراتيجيات‬‫خطط‬‫اﻹجر‬ ‫واتخاذ‬ ،‫بديلة‬ ‫طوارئ‬‫اءات‬ ‫المشروع‬ ‫إدارة‬ ‫خطة‬ ‫وتعديل‬ ،‫التصحيحية‬. 7/28/2017 43
  • 44.
    Risk Review andUpdating 7/28/2017 44
  • 45.
    Lessons Learned 7/28/2017 45 ‫عندما‬‫ينتهي‬‫او‬‫يستبعد‬‫اي‬‫من‬‫المخاطر‬،‫فإن‬‫فريق‬ ‫العمل‬PRMT‫يتوجب‬‫عليه‬‫مراجعة‬‫تاريخ‬‫كل‬‫خطر‬‫لتسجيل‬‫م‬‫ا‬ ‫هي‬‫الدروس‬‫المستفادة‬‫بشأن‬‫عمليات‬‫إدارة‬‫المخاطر‬ ‫المستخدمة‬. ‫و‬‫يلزم‬‫فريق‬‫العمل‬‫أن‬‫يسأل‬‫نفسه‬: "‫ما‬‫الذي‬‫كان‬‫يتوجب‬‫علينا‬‫عمله‬‫على‬‫نحو‬‫مختلف‬‫و‬‫لماذا؟‬" ‫و‬‫من‬‫ثم‬‫فإن‬‫مدير‬‫مخاطر‬‫المشروع‬‫عليه‬‫إجراء‬‫المراجعة‬ ‫الدورية‬‫لكافة‬‫الدروس‬‫المستفادة‬‫مع‬‫فريق‬‫العمل‬PRMT.
  • 46.
    References: 1. ICB -IPMA (International Competence Baseline Version 3.0). 2. Developing the Risk Register-Ahmed Said. 3. Practice Standard for Project Risk Management - PMI. 4. Scalable Project Risk Management- Carlton Team. 5. PMBOK 5th Edition. 6. Risk Management And Construction-Roger Flangan. 7/28/2017 46
  • 47.
    ‫ن‬‫الجميع‬ ‫به‬ ‫ينفع‬‫ان‬ ‫رجو‬-‫تحيات‬ ‫خالص‬ ‫مع‬‫نا‬ 7/28/2017 47 ‫للتطبيق؟‬ ‫جاهز‬ ‫انت‬ ‫هل‬
  • 48.
    Project Risk ManagementPlan Date of Issue 03/01/1437 (Hijri) – 03/11/2015 (Gregorian) General Report Form PMO-FM-RP-06(00)
  • 49.
    Risk Managment ProjectTemplate Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 2 of 9 Contents 1  Introduction 3  1.1  Purpose of the Risk Management Plan 3  2  Risk management Procedure 3  2.1  Process 3  2.2  Roles and Responsibilities 3  2.3  Risk Identification 3  2.4  Risk Analysis 4  2.5  Risk Response Planning 5  2.6  Risk Monitoring, Controlling and Reporting 5  2.7  Risk Contingency Budgeting 6  3  Tools and Practices 6  4  Closing a Risk 6  5  Lessons Learned 6  6  Attachment A 7  6.1  Risk Management Plan Approval 7  7  Attachment B 8  7.1  Register of Reference Documents 8  8  Attachment C 9  8.1  Schedule of Key Terms 9
  • 50.
    Risk Managment ProjectTemplate Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 3 of 9 1 Introduction 1.1 Purpose of the Risk Management Plan A risk is an event or condition that, if it occurs, could have a positive or negative effect on a project’s objectives. Risk Management is the process of identifying, assessing, responding to, monitoring and controlling, and reporting risks. This Risk Management Plan defines how risks associated with the project will be identified, analysed, and managed. It outlines how risk management activities will be performed, recorded, and monitored throughout the lifecycle of the project and provides templates and practices for recording and prioritizing risks by the project management team. 2 Risk management Procedure 2.1 Process The Planning Manager working with the project team will ensure that risks are actively identified, analysed, and managed throughout the life of the project. Risks will be identified as early as possible in the project so as to minimize their impact. The steps for accomplishing this are outlined in the following sections. The Planning Manager will serve as the Risk Manager for this project. 2.2 Roles and Responsibilities Role Responsibilities Risk Manager The Risk Manager is a member of the Integrated Project Team (IPT). The Risk Manager determines if the Risk is unique, identifies risk interdependencies across projects, verifies if risk is internal or external to project and assigns risk classification and tracking number. During the life of the project, they continually monitor the projects for potential risks. Integrated Project Team The IPT is responsible for identifying the risks, the dependencies of the risk within the project, the context and consequence of the risk. They are also responsible for determining the impact, timing, and priority of the risk as well as formulating the risk statements. Risk Owner(s) The risk owner determines which risks require mitigation and contingency plans; he generates the risk mitigation and contingency strategies and performs a cost benefit analysis of the proposed strategies. The risk owner is responsible for monitoring and controlling and updating the status of the risk throughout the project lifecycle. The risk owner can be a member of the project team. Other Key Stakeholders The other stakeholders assist in identifying and determining the context, consequence, impact, timing, and priority of the risk. 2.3 Risk Identification Risk identification will involve the project team, appropriate stakeholders, and will include an evaluation of environmental factors, organizational culture and the project management plan including the project scope, schedule, cost, or quality. Careful attention will be given to the project deliverables, assumptions, constraints, WBS, cost/effort estimates, resource plan, and other key project documents.
  • 51.
    Risk Managment ProjectTemplate Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 4 of 9 2.3.1 Methods for Risk Identification The following methods will be used to assist in the identification of risks - Brainstorming - Interviewing - SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) - Diagramming A Risk Management Register will be generated and updated as needed and will be stored electronically in the project library. 2.4 Risk Analysis All risks identified will be assessed to identify the range of possible project outcomes. Risks will be prioritized by their level of importance. 2.4.1 Qualitative Risk Analysis The probability and impact of occurrence for each identified risk will be assessed by the Risk Manager, with input from the project team using the following approach: Probability - Very High - Greater than 80% probability of occurrence - High – Between 60% and 80% probability of occurrence - Medium – Between 30% and 60% probability of occurrence - Low – Between 10% and 30% probability of occurrence - Very Low - Below 10% probability of occurrence Impact - Very High - Risk that has the potential to have a critical impact on project cost, project schedule or performance - High – Risk that has the potential to greatly impact project cost, project schedule or performance - Medium – Risk that has the potential to slightly impact project cost, project schedule or performance - Low – Risk that has relatively little impact on cost, schedule or performance - Very Low - Risk that has negligible impact on cost, schedule or performance This information will be input into the Risk Management Register for each identified risk. Risks that fall within the RED and YELLOW zones will have risk response plan which may include both a risk response strategy and a risk contingency plan. 2.4.2 Quantitative Risk Analysis Analysis of risk events that have been prioritized using the qualitative risk analysis process and their effect on project activities will be estimated, a numerical rating is applied to each risk based on quantitative analysis, and then documented in this section of the risk management plan. VH H X M L VL VL L M H VH Impact Probability
  • 52.
    Risk Managment ProjectTemplate Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 5 of 9 2.5 Risk Response Planning Each major risk (those falling in the Red & Yellow zones) will be assigned to a risk owner for monitoring and controlling purposes to ensure that each risk is given the appropriate attention and action. For each risk, one of the following approaches will be selected to address it: - Avoid – Eliminate the threat or condition or to protect the project objectives from its impact by eliminating the cause - Mitigate – Identify ways to reduce the probability or the impact of the risk - Accept – Nothing will be done - Contingency –Define actions to be taken in response to risks - Transfer – Shift the consequence of a risk to a third party together with ownership of the response by making another party responsible for the risk (buy insurance, outsourcing, etc.) For each risk that will be mitigated, the project team will identify ways to prevent the risk from occurring or reduce its impact or probability of occurring. This may include prototyping, adding tasks to the project schedule, adding resources, etc. Any secondary risks that result from risk mitigation response will be documented and follow the risk management protocol as the primary risks. For each major risk that is to be mitigated or that is accepted, a course of action will be outlined in the event that the risk does materialize in order to minimize its impact. 2.6 Risk Monitoring, Controlling and Reporting The level of risk on a project will be tracked, monitored, controlled and reported throughout the project lifecycle. Risks will be assigned a risk owner(s) who will track, monitor and control and report on the status and effectiveness of each risk response action to the Risk Manager and Risk Management Team on weekly basics A “Risk Management Register” will be maintained by the Risk Manager or IPT and will be reported as a component of the project status reporting process for this project. All project change requests will be analysed for their possible impact to the project risks. As Risk Events occur, the list will be re-prioritized during weekly reviews and the Risk Management Register will reflect any and all changes including secondary and residual risks. Management will be notified of important changes to risk status as a component to the Monthly Project Status Report. The Risk Manager will: - Review, reevaluate, and modify the probability and impact for each risk item weekly. - Analyze any new risks that are identified and add these items to the Risk Management Register. - Monitor and control risks that have been identified - Review and update the Risk Management Register. - Escalate issues/ problems to management.
  • 53.
    Risk Managment ProjectTemplate Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 6 of 9 The Risk Owner will: - Help develop the risk response and risk trigger and carry out the execution of the risk response, if a risk event occurs. - Participate in the review, re-evaluation, and modification of the probability and impact for each risk item on a weekly basis. - Identify and participate in the analysis of any new risks that occur. - Escalate issues/problems to Risk Manager that, o Significantly impact the projects triple constraint or trigger another risk event to occur. o Require action prior to the next weekly review o Risk strategy is not effective or productive causing the need to execute the contingency plan. Risk activities will be recorded in the Risk Management Register. 2.7 Risk Contingency Budgeting A risk contingency budget shall be established to prepare in advance for the possibility that some risks will not be managed successfully. The risk contingency budget will contain funds that can be tapped so that your project doesn't go over budget. 3 Tools and Practices A Risk Management Register will be maintained by the Risk Manager and will be reviewed as a standing agenda item for project team meetings. Risk activities will be recorded in the Risk Management Register. 4 Closing a Risk A risk will be considered closed when it meets the following criteria: - Risk is no longer valid - Risk Event has occurred - Risk is no longer considered a risk - Risk closure at the direction of the Risk Manager 5 Lessons Learned The lessons learned will be captured and recorded.
  • 54.
    Risk Managment ProjectTemplate Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 7 of 9 6 Attachment A 6.1 Risk Management Plan Approval The undersigned acknowledge that they have reviewed the Risk Management Plan and agree with the information presented within this document. Changes to this Risk Management Plan will be coordinated with, and approved by, the undersigned, or their designated representatives. Signature: Date: Print Name: Title: Role: Signature: Date: Print Name: Title: Role: Signature: Date: Print Name: Title: Role:
  • 55.
    Risk Managment ProjectTemplate Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 8 of 9 7 Attachment B 7.1 Register of Reference Documents The following table summarizes the documents referenced in this document. Document Name Description Location
  • 56.
    Risk Managment ProjectTemplate Issue Date: 15 December 2016 Page 9 of 9 8 Attachment C 8.1 Schedule of Key Terms The following table provides definitions and explanations for terms and acronyms relevant to the content presented within this document. Term Definition
  • 57.
    1 Risk Form PROJECT DETAILS© ProjectName: Name of the project to which the risk relates Al-Manar Specialized Hospital 500 Bed Project Manager: Name of the project manager responsible for mitigating the risk Eng. xxxxxxxxx RISK DETAILS Risk ID: Unique identifier assigned to this risk C-120001/R11/004 Raised By: Name of person who is raising the risk Eng. YYYYYYY Date Raised: Date on which this form is completed 04 – 04 - 2016 Risk Description: Add a brief description of the risk identified and its likely impact on the project (e.g. scope, resources, deliverables, timescales and/or budgets) Seasonal Annual Dust Storms - Climateatic Conditions Cause 2monthes/year (Delay of covering the building will cause delay finishes activity. Also Facades will be delayed.) Risk/opportunity is occurring if the Revised Noise Study indicates the additional wall height is warranted. Risk Likelihood: Describe and rate the likelihood of the risk eventuating (i.e. Low, Medium or High) High Risk Impact: Describe and rate the impact on the project if the risk eventuates (i.e. Low, Medium or High) High (+) Our price is high/SM RISK MITIGATION Recommended Preventative Actions: Add a brief description of any actions that should be taken to prevent the risk from eventuating Change workday hours start at 4am:10am. Add in an additional 250 hours in WBS 165 and all sub-activities. Recommended Contingent Actions: Add a brief description of any actions that should be taken, in the event that the risk happens, to minimize its impact on the project an additional noise study to analyze 5-meter-high wall at this location. APPROVAL DETAILS© Supporting Documentation: Reference any supporting documentation used to substantiate this risk 1- C120001-CE-127 2- Risk Register RR-Ver.01/Rev02/4416 3- Consultant Letter ME-128 4- Hydraulic & Storm study a Rev01 5- Meteorological report Signature: Date: _______________________ ___/___/____ PLEASE FORWARD THIS FORM TO THE PROJECT MANAGER
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    2 ‫اﻟﻌﻮاﺻﻒ‬ ‫اﺛﻨﺎء‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻮاﺻﻒ‬‫اﺛﻨﺎء‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ‬‫اﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﯾﻖ‬ ‫ﻣﻐﺎدرة‬ ‫و‬
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    Minimum 9 Date Maximum225 Actual 99 Item No. Risk Birth Date / Project Phase Status Risk Category Risk Event Cause Effect Threator Opportunit Type Risk Trigger Probability Impact Risk Score (Min = 1) (Max = 25) Probability (%) Impact($ ordays) Effect ($ordays) Response Strategy Response Actions including advantages and disadvantages Affected WBS Tasks Responsible Entity Interval or Milestone Check Status: Date and Review Comments VH H M X L VL VL L M H VH VH H X M L VL VL L M H VH VH X H M L VL VL L M H VH VH X H M L VL VL L M H VH VH H M X L VL VL L M H VH VH X H M L VL VL L M H VH VH H M L VL VL L M H VH VH H M L VL VL L M H VH VH H M L VL VL L M H VH 2 Active 4 Active Mitigate Follow up with Owner and urge them to expadite the matter ASAP. Eng.?????? Weekly Owner WeeklyFollow Up with Owner 6-03-2016- Consultant Site PM returned with comments. Revise and re submit asap Consultant site and HQ staff to expadite review of the savings and deficits report asap. WeeklyMitigate 7-03-2016 - Civil Defence visit to site. Mitigate Weekly follow up with Civil Defence and in parrell request letters of support from Owner. PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT REGISTER - Project Name - Hospital - 200 Bed & Housing CONTRACTOR : Company Name 15/12/2016 Impact Probability 0 0 Impact 0 Probability Medium Medium 9 8 5 Active Savings & Deficit Calculations Construction Impact 6 Active 7 Owner Delays Productivity , Time, Performance Threat Very High Probability Very HighDelay in Invoice Payments Impact Transfer Probability External Site PMDelay in completion Delay in establish total project cost and issueing of Cost Plan for the project Threat Probability Impact 9 25 0 0 Work Disruption, Low Productivity, Document of Ownership (Not complying with actual area/ coordinates) External Weekly Time, Performance and Systems delivery Threat Very High High Probability Civil Defence Approvals External Delay in Approvals by Civil Defence for (FA, FF and Fire Zones, Exits …..) 20 Impact Eng………………… ….. Monitoring and Control Time Delay to the Project Qualitative Risk Assessment 9 Construction Active 6-03-2016 - PO to be raised and to site of windows, sub contractor to be established. 1-3-2016- Letter sent to Owner Directorite by Owner representative. Impact High High Probability Mistake in Owner SAK submittal and delay in correcting mistake Impact Mitigate Close Buidling before the season, Increase productivity, Work in shifts during storm season. Site PM Bi-Weekly Time Delay to the Project Threat 16 20 Threat 0 Weekly 6-3-2016- Meeting held, Process and procedure in place. Mitigate Eng. ………. Impact Probability Risk Matrix 1 However the Risk is time dependant therefore the risk score & probability will increase over time. The chosen method of mitigation of this risk is to reduce the risk impact by providing clarification on the matter and implementing a process/procedure by which full and clear coordination shall be carried out. Threat Medium Medium Probability Very High High Delay in Owner Approval/Decision Work on hold for Clinic Areas by Owner 3 Active Seasonal Annual Dust Storms Environment Climateatic Conditions 100 50 0 0 60 54 403200 362880 0 50% 70% 90% 90% 50% 90% 0% Risk Response PlanQuantitative Analysis Project Risk Score 165 0 0 0% 0% Risk Identification If it continued up to end of the project or the last 6 months it will delay the building complete finishes and usage 2monthes/year (Delay of covering the building will cause delay finishes activity. Also Facades will be delayed.) Time Scope Time Cost Time Cost Time 15/12/2016 Page 1 of 1 PMO-REG-CM-01(00)